Final Predictions, Teams to Watch at 2016 MLB Winter Meetings

If the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland, had a slogan, it’d be “ready, set, go.”

It’s the scene of baseball’s 2016 winter meetings, after all, which kick off in earnest Monday and run through Thursday. With a new labor deal in place and a clutter of high-profile free agents and trade targets on the board, it figures to be a transaction-packed few days.

Imagine the collective bargaining negotiations as a cork and the offseason market as a roiling bottle of your favorite carbonated beverage. Any moment now, it’s going to pop.

To wet your whistle and/or whet your appetite, here are some final predictions and teams to watch based on the latest rumors and rumblings, plus a dollop of educated gut feeling.

    

Prediction: The Los Angeles Dodgers Will Sign Rich Hill

Rich Hill is the closest thing to an ace in a comically shallow free-agent pool. He’s also 36 years old and has a shaky injury history. Regardless, someone is going to give him multiple years and a lot of dollars.

The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are all in “full pursuit” of Hill, per ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. Any of the four makes sense, but Los Angeles is the front-runner.

On Saturday, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweeted the Dodgers and Hill were “closing in on [a] multi-year deal.” These things can fall apart up to the moment the John Hancock meets the contract. The dots connect, though.

Los Angeles needs another arm to join Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda atop an otherwise-muddled starting rotation. The Dodgers have money to spend despite reports of debt-related financial constraints.

Plus, Hill was a success in his limited L.A. audition, posting a 1.83 ERA in six starts and picking up a win in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series.

Anything past a two-year deal would be dicey, but tacking on an option and/or some incentives could be enough to get it done.

    

Team to Watch: New York Yankees

These aren’t your father’s Yankees. Heck, they’re not even your older brother’s Yankees.

The Yanks are in rebuild mode, sort of, jettisoning veterans and stockpiling young, cost-controlled talent. They initiated the strategy at the 2016 trade deadline and continued it when they dealt catcher Brian McCann to the Astros in November.

There are other possible trade targets on the roster, including outfielder Brett Gardner, so don’t be shocked if New York further bolsters a farm system that’s already No. 1 in the game, per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter.

That said, the Yankees signed 36-year-old outfielder Matt Holliday to a one-year, $13 million deal Sunday, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, and they might just be getting started.

They’ve been heavily linked to closer Aroldis Chapman, whom they acquired last December and dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline.

“I would love to be a Yankee again,” Chapman told NY Sports Day’s Ray Negron in November.

They could also be in on Edwin Encarnacion, the best free-agent power hitter since the New York Mets re-signed Yoenis Cespedes.

New York is “well-positioned to make a play” for Encarnacion, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Encarnacion‘s agent, Paul Kinzer, told Joel Sherman of the New York Post his client is “likely” to find a home during the winter meetings.

Giving multiple years and something approaching nine figures to the 33-year-old would be a departure from the club’s recent M.O.

The Yankees are always looking to win now, however, and Encarnacion‘s 40-homer pop would slot nicely into the middle of their youthful lineup. He’d serve as a designated hitter in the Bronxpossibly sharing time with Hollidaybut he’d also provide insurance at first base, where Greg Bird is returning from shoulder surgery.

    

Prediction: The San Francisco Giants Will Break the Elite-Closer Logjam

Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon—the offseason’s game-changing closers—remain unsigned entering Monday.

It says here that will change during the meetings and that the San Francisco Giants will be the team to change it.

San Francisco was undone by its pen last season, and three of the team’s top relievers—Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez—are free agents.

General manager Bobby Evans said the Giants “like all of the options” when it comes to the bullpen Big Three of Chapman, Jansen and Melancon, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

Melancon, however, is the most plausible target. He’ll be a bit cheaper than Chapman or Jansen, and the Giants also have a hole to plug in left field.

The 31-year-old Melancon has multiple offers of four years and $60 million-plus, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. One is from the Giants, Rosenthal added, and it is “thought to be [the] strongest.”

Other clubs are circling the reliever pool, including the Yankees, Dodgers and Miami Marlins, who have made Jansen their “top target,” per Heyman. That’s a bit of a head-scratcher given Miami’s situation, but, well, they’re the Marlins.

The Giants’ need is greatest, however, and they’ll carry that sense of urgency to National Harbor.

    

Team to Watch: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a 93-loss campaign and a last-place finish in the National League East. They’re also looking to get some good mojo flowing as they move into a shiny new ballpark in 2017.

That could mean adding a free agent such as catcher Matt Wieters, a four-time All-Star and Georgia Tech alum.

It could also mean pulling the trigger on a big trade. They were in on Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale but balked at the asking price of shortstop and top prospect Dansby Swanson, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.

Atlanta has also inquired about Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer, but the Rays’ demands are likewise too high, per Bowman.

The fact the Braves have put loafer to Goodyear on such high-profile arms shows they’re serious about accelerating the rebuild and contending sooner rather than later.

Even if they stick to their guns on Swanson, they’ve got six other prospects among the game’s top 100, according to MLB.com, which should be enough to swing a blockbuster.

Speaking of which…

    

Prediction: There Will Be a Blockbuster Trade

A weak free-agent class almost always means a robust trade market, and this year will be no exception.

In addition to Sale and Archer, the Detroit Tigers have indicated they’re willing to sell off expensive veterans from a group that includes second baseman Ian Kinsler, outfielder J.D. Martinez, two-time American League MVP Miguel Cabrera and ace Justin Verlander.

Then there’s Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen, another former MVP who could be on the move.

The Bucs and Washington Nationals are “working on a lot of different angles” to get a deal done, per Bowden. The Nats even think they may have the pieces to trade for McCutchen and Sale, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale.

McCutchen is coming off a down year in which he posted a career-worst .766 OPS, but the 30-year-old possesses elite talent and is under contract for a relatively reasonable $14 million in 2017 with a $14.75 million option for 2018. He’ll draw plenty of interest.

The lack of free-agent starting pitchers means the White Sox, Rays, Tigers and any other sellers can keep the price tags for their studs in the stratosphere. Thus, a seismic trade for a position player—possibly McCutchen—is more likely to happen at the meetings.

Either way, look for All-Star MLB talent and blue-chip prospects to change uniforms.

All together now: Ready, set, go.

    

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Matt Holliday Adds Proven Winner to Hasten Upstart Yankees’ Youthful Rebuild

A scant three weeks before Christmas, the New York Yankees signed Matt Holliday for one year and $13 million, per Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball. 

I will spare you the painfully obvious holiday/Holliday puns.

It’s a solid move for the Yanks, who are in the midst of a youth movement but also seeking to win now.

New York whiffed on outfielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran when he signed with the Houston Astros for one year and $16 million on Saturday.

The Yankees dealt Beltran to the Texas Rangers at the 2016 trade deadline, but according to Heyman, they were interested in bringing the veteran switch-hitter back. 

Now, they have his ostensible replacementa veteran bat with bona fide big-game credentials.

The Yankees’ emphasis is on shedding costly flotsam and adding cost-controlled depth. In addition to Beltran, they moved ace relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller at the deadline and restocked a farm system that’s now No. 1 in the game, per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter.

At the same time, they’ve got an unspoken mandate to stay competitive and dance back onto the October stage as quickly as possible. 

Holliday doesn’t guarantee that will happen. He posted a less than stellar .246/.322/.461 slash line last season for the St. Louis Cardinals in 110 games. Injuries limited him to just 73 games in 2015.

On the other hand, he’s a seven-time All-Star who won a ring in 2011 and has 302 playoff plate appearances to his name. The 20 home runs he cracked in 2016 suggest there’s pop residing in his bat. 

He can play the outfield and may see time there if New York trades Brett Gardner. His defense, however, has taken a serious dive.

At this point, he projects best at DH or first base, where he got nine starts last season. That meets the Yankees’ needs, especially with first baseman Greg Bird coming off major shoulder surgery.

Getting reps at DH and playing the bulk of his games in the hitter-happy American League East could give Holliday a late-career bump.

He also won’t cost New York a draft pick since St. Louis didn’t offer him arbitration.

“Our preference is to retain a draft pick if we can,” general manager Brian Cashman said, per George A. King III and Dan Martin of the New York Post. “We have a certain amount of money we want to allocate to allow us to do a number of different things.”

One of those things could be closer Aroldis Chapman, whom the Yankees acquired last December and dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline.

“I would love to be a Yankee again,” Chapman told NY Sports Day’s Ray Negron in November. 

Chapman could command a deal in the vicinity of nine figures, which makes Holliday a more prudent signing than, say, Edwin Encarnacion.

The Yankees were “well-positioned to make a play” for Encarnacion, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Now, with Holliday in the fold, they may pass on the 33-year-old slugger, who came with draft-pick compensation and an unavoidable jolt of sticker shock.

Ditching long-term monetary commitments aligns with a grander vision, as ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand spelled out:

Will [Holliday] be good in 2017? Who knows? Will the Yankees be good in 2017? No one knows that, either. But if Holliday is solid, it could be a big lift for this bridge year as the Yankees try to reload and rebuild toward 2019, which is when the Yankees’ next “uber” (trademark, Brian Cashman) team might be ready to add Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado and others.

Getting back to the here and now with Holliday, there are reasons for optimism that go beyond the DH and AL East. There were hints of bad luck in his 2016 stat line, per ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney:

New York has work to do. It needs to add arms to a rotation that features Masahiro Tanaka and a heap of question marks. It needs to go hard after Chapman or explore other avenues to give Dellin Betances company in the late innings.

Holliday, though, can be the cherry on top of a sundae that includes catcher and AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Gary Sanchez, 24-year-old masher Aaron Judge and a host of MiLB up-and-comers. 

Whether the Yankees can win the division depends on what further moves they make and what becomes of their competition. The Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles all made the playoffs in 2016 and are looking to improve.

But, at the risk of straining the Holliday/holiday comparison, the Yanks just opened a nicely wrapped package—and checked an item off their wish list.

           

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

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Matt Holliday to Yankees: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Matt Holliday struggled to find his previous All-Star form throughout an injury-marred 2016 season, but the New York Yankees reportedly took a chance on him Sunday.

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Bronx Bombers signed the slugger to a one-year deal worth $13 million. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports confirmed the signing. 

Heyman, citing Sweeny Murti of CBS New York, said Holliday will serve as the designated hitter for the Yankees. 

This comes after the St. Louis Cardinals declined the remaining option year on his previous contract on the heels of a 2016 season in which he played just 110 games and slashed .246/.322/.461 with 20 home runs and 62 RBI. He also fell short in the outfield and was responsible for minus-eight defensive runs saved above average, per FanGraphs.

Holliday played for the Colorado Rockies from 2004 to 2008, the Oakland Athletics for 93 games in 2009 and the Cardinals from 2009 to 2016.

He was an All-Star his final three years with Colorado, as well as his first three full seasons with St. Louis. The seven-time All-Star also made the team in 2015 and has four Silver Slugger Awards and the 2007 National League batting title on his impressive resume.

USA Today ranked him as the 46th-best free agent in this offseason’s class and pointed to some of his decline as he ages: “Once one of the game’s most consistent power hitters, Holliday has begun to show his age over the past two seasons as injuries have become more of a problem. His career-low .246 average and .783 OPS in 2016 confirm the decline.”

Holliday played just 73 games in 2015 because of a right quadriceps injury and dealt with a fractured thumb that required surgery and a facial abrasion after being hit by a pitch in 2016.

He still managed to reach the 20-homer plateau for the 10th time in his career:

In addition to his raw power, Holliday brings postseason experience to his new team. He has 72 playoff games and the 2007 National League Championship Series MVP under his belt and will look to help lead the Yankees to the playoffs in 2017.

He was confident in his abilities heading into the offseason, per Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com: “I have a lot of good baseball left in me.”

That may be the case, but he will be 37 years old throughout the 2017 campaign. The power was still there when healthy in 2016, and he won’t be a liability in the outfield as a designated hitter.

Between his veteran leadership, postseason mettle and pop he brings to the order, Holliday can develop into an impact signing for New York.

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Bud Selig, John Schuerholz Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame: Details, Reaction

Former MLB Commissioner Bud Selig and Atlanta Braves president and longtime executive John Schuerholz were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday by the Today’s Game Era Committee.

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the news. The 16-person committee unanimously elected Schuerholz, while Selig received 15 votes.

“To say this is a significant day in my life would be an understatement. I consider myself very fortunate,” Selig said, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

This is the first year of the Today’s Game Era Committee voting, which aims to add deserving names from the modern era who have not been selected on the writers’ ballots.

George Steinbrenner, Lou Piniella, Mark McGwire, Davey Johnson, Orel Hershiser, Will Clark, Albert Belle and Harold Baines were also considered but did not receive enough votes. Piniella was the only person other than Selig or Schuerholz to receive more than five votes, per Baseball America.

Candidates needed 75 percent of the vote to make the Hall of Fame.

Selig, 82, served as MLB’s commissioner from September 1992 (acting) to January 2015. He oversaw some of the sport’s greatest moments of growth and perhaps the lowest moment in MLB history, with the 1994 work stoppage causing the cancelation of the World Series.

Baseball also underwent massive scrutiny under Selig for its lack of performance-enhancing-drug policy, which allowed home run records to be broken in part because of steroid use. The latter half of Selig’s tenure was largely about eradicating those issues and pushing the game into the 21st century. MLB now has perhaps the most stringent drug-testing policy of all four major professional sports in the U.S., and he turned the commissionership over to Rob Manfred after years of steady financial growth.

Schuerholz, 76, is a long-tenured baseball executive who had Hall of Fame-worthy runs with the Kansas City Royals and Braves. He spent the formative part of his career in Kansas City, moving up in the organization to eventually serve a successful general manager term. He was instrumental in building the Royals’ 1985 World Series team before joining Atlanta in 1990.

With the Braves, Schuerholz built a dynasty throughout the 1990s with a successful pitching staff. The Braves reached the World Series four times and won it in 1995, their first and only title since moving from Milwaukee.

          

Follow Tyler Conway (@jtylerconway) on Twitter.

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MLB Rumors: Hottest Trade Rumors Entering Winter Meetings 2016

The 2016 Major League Baseball winter meetings will run from Sunday through Thursday in National Harbor, Maryland, and trade buzz is picking up as general managers get ready to intensify discussions regarding some of the sport’s biggest names.

From All-Star starting pitchers to game-changing outfielders, there are plenty of enticing names circulating in advance of hot-stove season.

“It’s one of the worst free-agent groups I can remember,” a National League executive told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. “So I think people are saying, ‘Let’s go make a trade.'”

As the meetings get underway, here’s a rundown of the latest rumblings from across the sport. 

       

White Sox Seeking King’s Ransom for Sale

Chris Sale’s name has been popular in the rumor mill for some time, and the Chicago White Sox are reportedly seeking a major haul in exchange for the five-time All-Star.

“We’re hearing the same grumbling about the White Sox’s price tag this winter as we heard last July,” Stark reported. “One exec described them as asking for ‘the Shelby Miller deal,’ plus at least two additional pieces.”

As NESN’s Mike Cole pointed out, the Arizona Diamondbacks had to part with Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to snag Miller and Gabe Speier

However, the belief around baseball seems to be that the White Sox could lower their asking price to part ways with the ace, who’s under team control for three more years at a reasonable price of $39.5 million.  

“I think the price is going to come down…and I think they’re going to move him,” a National League executive told Stark. “In fact, I’d be surprised if they don’t.”

Considering Sale has never recorded an ERA above 3.50 and is coming off a season in which he led the AL in complete games (six) while notching 233 strikeouts and 45 walks, the White Sox should have no trouble finding a solid package of prospects to help stabilize their future.

                             

Nationals Leading the Chase for McCutchen

An NL executive told Stark the Pittsburgh Pirates are “actively trying to move” outfielder Andrew McCutchen, and it appears as though there’s a front-runner for his services, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden:

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi added that the Nationals remain in the lead for McCutchen, but he noted the Texas Rangers have also contacted the Pirates about a potential swap. 

The Nationals were seemingly a bat away from solidifying their status as World Series favorites a season ago, so snagging McCutchen—if he’s not too expensive—would be a no-brainer for the reigning NL East champions.

Not only is McCutchen a lifetime .292 hitter with a .381 on-base percentage, but he’s also hit more than 20 home runs every season dating back to 2011. Plus, he’s captured five All-Star berths during that six-season span.

Furthermore, McCutchen is on a team-friendly deal that would be manageable for the Nationals moving forward. The 30-year-old is due $14 million in 2017 with a club option worth $14.5 for 2018 before his contract expires.

If the Nationals are able to swing a deal for McCutchen, they would be able to shift some pieces around and field one of the league’s most dangerous lineups.

According to Stark, the hope is that McCutchen would play center field, while Trea Turner would shift over to shortstop.

            

Justin Verlander on the Block

At first glance, Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander would seem like a tough sell on the trade market.

He’s owed $28 million in each of the next three seasons, and he owns a $22 million option for the 2020 season that vests if he finishes among the top five in Cy Young Award voting.

However, those financial considerations haven’t stopped competing clubs from doing their homework on a potential deal for the 2016 Cy Young runner-up.

“There’s a big difference between them and the White Sox,” an AL executive told Bleacher Report’s Danny Knobler. “The White Sox would have to get a ton to trade [Chris] Sale, and even then, their owner might not really want to do it. The Tigers are looking for value, but I think they would like to make a trade.”

With that said, there could be a hang-up even if the Tigers are able to hammer out the framework of a deal with a rival club.

Verlander’s contract contains a no-trade clause, so he would need to approve any deal before it’s signed, sealed and delivered.

From that standpoint, it’s no wonder an AL executive estimated the chances of Verlander being dealt hover around 20 percent, according to Knobler.

           

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.

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MLB Winter Meetings 2016: Dates, Schedule, Rumors and Predictions

The first week of December is typically an optimistic time for all 30 Major League Baseball teams because it marks the start of the winter meetings, where club executives and agents discuss potential deals.

There was a storm cloud hanging over this year’s meetings, though, with owners and the players’ union struggling to agree to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement.

Fortunately, the two sides found the middle ground to keep the two decades of labor peace alive and well. It also ensured this year’s winter meetings, which begin Sunday, will continue to be an active spot for teams to talk potential free-agent signings and trades to boost their outlooks for 2017.

   

Rumors

Extended Party at Napoli’s

Mike Napoli proved as a member of the Cleveland Indians last season that he still has some gas left in the tank with a .239/.335/.465 slash line and new career highs in home runs (34), RBI (101) and games played (150).

It’s no surprise that Napoli‘s looking to cash in on one more multiyear deal, but there’s reportedly a gap between what he wants and what the Indians are willing to offer.

“Club executives say Mike Napoli is looking for a three-year deal, following a season in which he hit 34 homers and drove in 101 runs,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported. “The Indians, responding to the glut of sluggers in the market, would prefer to limit their investment in Napoli or another slugger to one year.”

While Napoli was a valuable piece in Cleveland’s lineup last season, he has severe limitations, recording a .322 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching while rating as one of the worst defensive first basemen in the American League, per FanGraphs.

Despite their success in 2016, the Indians are still a small-market team that has to be diligent in how it spends money.

The Indians know they already have one player who’s capable of shifting between first base and designated hitter—Carlos Santana. If they don’t want to rush Michael Brantley back to the outfield from his various shoulder problems, he can handle DH duties early in the year. 

The Seattle Mariners have reportedly shown interest in Napoli, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. But Bob Dutton of the News Tribune reported they plan to use a combination of Dan Vogelbach and Danny Valencia at first base.

This isn’t the ideal market for Napoli to cash in, with Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce among the other available options.

The New York Yankees have also been linked to Napoli, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, though they don’t seem to be a fit as a rebuilding club that should be giving at-bats to young talent in hopes of competing for a playoff spot in 2018.

Things can change, especially when teams get desperate, but as it stands, the Indians look like they could luck out by virtue of a market surplus and bring back Napoli at their price for one more run at the World Series title in 2017 after finishing one win short this year.

Prediction: Indians re-sign Napoli for one year.

              

The Chapman Conundrum

On the heels of another dominant season that ended with a World Series title with the Chicago Cubs, closer Aroldis Chapman could end up earning the biggest deal ever given to a reliever. 

Since being promoted to the big leagues in 2010, Chapman ranks second among all relievers in wins above replacement (14.1), per FanGraphs. He’s achieved that status by posting a 2.08 ERA with 636 strikeouts and 201 hits allowed in 377 innings.

George A. King III of the New York Post reported the Yankees will likely be the front-runners to sign Chapman, though he noted that could change if the closer “really is looking for five years and $100 million.”

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the highest average annual salary for a reliever in MLB history is $15 million, which Yankees legend Mariano Rivera received from 2008 to 2012. 

Chapman has the on-field pedigree to warrant that kind of money, and he picked an opportune time to hit the market after an October in which relievers dominated the conversation.

But there are other options for teams to pick from. Kenley Jansen, who has been nearly as dominant as Chapman, is also available. Mark Melancon is an older free agent at 31, but he’s had sub-2.00 ERAs in three of the previous four seasons.

At this point, it seems like it will be the Yankees or bust for Chapman, who hasn’t hidden his love for the organization.

It would be a puzzling fit, however. The Yankees need to find starting pitchers, especially since Masahiro Tanaka can opt out of his contract after next season, for when their young position players are ready to take off—and their dominant bullpen featuring Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances didn’t lead to results last year.

Prediction: Yankees sign Chapman for five years.

     

Running Up That Rich Hill

In a particularly dreadful market for starting pitching, Rich Hill, who still possesses the ability to miss bats and limit hard contact, is the best of the bunch.

There’s a steep downside with Hill, who turns 37 in March, as last year marked the first time he’s hit 100 innings in an MLB season since 2007.

Despite those red flags, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden reported the Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are in full pursuit of Hill, with the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles also expressing some interest.

The Yankees need more starting pitching, but their focus should be on finding someone who can contribute in 2018 and beyond. They’ve also largely gotten out of the habit of giving multiyear deals to players on the wrong side of 30, at least for the time being.

The two Texas teams could also use starting pitching to get over the hump in 2017, yet neither feels like an ideal fit for Hill—and putting his fragile body in the exhausting Texas heat during the summer months is an easy way for him to fall apart.

The Dodgers should still provide Hill with the best overall package. They need a strong No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw, have money to spend and understand how to handle Hill to keep him healthy after acquiring him from the Oakland Athletics in August.

A two-year deal with a sufficient average annual salary could be just the thing to entice him to remain on the West Coast.

Prediction: Dodgers re-sign Hill for two years.

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Remaining 2016-17 MLB Free Agents Who Suddenly Look Like Huge Values

It’s fairly easy to write a check. Do you want a free agent on your team? All an executive really needs to do is offer that player a bigger contract than every other team in contention for his services.

The more difficult task for general managers around the game is to identify players who offer an organization great value.

Inevitably, those players are flawed. Otherwise, they would be fielding high-priced offers that would negate the idea that they bring any value. So have an open mind when considering the following choices.

Sure there are holes in each player’s game but might some teams see a bargain and take a risk?

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Carlos Beltran Signing Puts Astros One Step Away from AL Favorites

The last time Carlos Beltran was in a Houston Astros uniform, he was punishing baseballs left and right as he led the team deep into the postseason.

It could be deja vu all over again 11 months from now.

After parting ways back in 2004, Beltran and the Astros reunited Saturday. Buster Olney of ESPN.com was first to report the Astros had signed the 39-year-old switch-hitter to a one-year, $16 million contract. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Beltran’s contract also features a full no-trade clause.

Go ahead and score another one for an Astros lineup that has reached full ignition this winter.

The Astros already had a core of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel. Now they have Brian McCann and Josh Reddick in addition to Beltran. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, here’s how they could line up on Opening Day:

The only major changes I’d make are sliding Reddick over to his natural right field position, Gattis to left field and Beltran into the designated hitter spot.

That’s where he belongs these days. Beltran was still a darn good center fielder when he played for the Astros in 2004, but age and mileage have taken a toll on his legs. The advanced metrics make it clear that he can’t play even average defense as a right fielder.

Fair warning: Beltran’s also not going to be the hitter he was the last time he was in Houston.

After he was acquired from the Kansas City Royals in a June trade, he boosted the Astros with a .926 OPS and 23 home runs in 90 regular-season games. He then posted an absurd 1.557 OPS and hit eight homers in leading the Astros to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. Asking him to do that again would be like asking Altuve to dunk on Hakeem Olajuwon.

But while numbers reminiscent of 2004 may not be in store, old age has only slowed Beltran’s bat down so much.

He’s put up an .830 OPS and hit 48 home runs over the last two seasons. Most of that damage came in 2016, when he had an .850 OPS and cranked 29 home runs in 151 games with the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers.

The Astros could have benefited from production like that at a number of different positions. As ESPN Stats & Info will vouch, DH was one of them:

Beltran’s arrival should make for better fortunes at that position in 2017. And the news is nothing but good elsewhere too.

Reddick’s arrival gives the Astros another bat for an outfield that, Springer aside, struggled offensively in 2016. McCann has been a more consistent hitter than the guy he’s replacing behind the plate, Jason Castro. Full seasons from Bregman, a former No. 1 prospect, and Gurriel, formerly a Cuban superstar, could also yield impressive results.

At the least, Houston’s offense is due for a major improvement from its place in the American League in 2016, in which it finished eighth in runs and ninth in OPS. As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan highlighted, it could even be the best offense in the league as things stand now.

And the 2017 Astros should do more than just hit.

A defense that finished second to only the Chicago Cubs in defensive runs saved in 2016 is arguably just as good now as it was at the end of the season, if not better. And despite losing Pat Neshek in a salary-dump trade, the Astros have largely retained a bullpen that, by FanGraphs‘ calculation, led baseball in wins above replacement in 2016.

The only part of the team that looks like an Achilles heel is the starting rotation. It put up a 4.37 ERA without good peripherals in 2016. The only upgrade it’s gotten this winter is Charlie Morton, a 33-year-old whose health and productivity have been easy-come, easy-go.

This is the part that makes me hesitant to buy into the early projections at FanGraphs, which have the Astros pegged as the AL’s best team with a 2017 projection of 91 wins. Of course, there’s also the fact the Astros are just about done with their offseason shopping while most other teams haven’t even started theirs.

However, there is the possibility that the Astros will get bounce-back seasons from 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. There’s also the possibility that Lance McCullers will stay healthy and dominate with his electric stuff—Castro, now with the Minnesota Twins, won’t soon forget it.

There’s also the possibility that the rotation is next in line for a major upgrade. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has the latest on that:

According to Heyman, the Astros have their eyes on Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale and Tampa Bay Rays ace Chris Archer. It could require taking Bregman out of the picture, but they have enough young talent to acquire either one of them. Even after dropping tens of millions on their offseason acquisitions to this point, they should also have the funds to take on Sale’s or Archer’s contract.

“We’re going to have the resources to go out and sign some players,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow promised in October, via Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle.

The Astros will have nothing to complain about if they get Sale or Archer. They’ll have taken a team that, though flawed, was good enough to win 84 games in 2016 and outfitted it with a lineup, rotation and bullpen worthy of a World Series chase.

This is unfinished business for both Beltran and the Astros. Beltran hasn’t won a World Series in his 19-year career, and the Astros have played in one and won none in their 54-year history.

It’s all too easy to imagine either party saying three magic words as soon as Saturday’s deal was done: Let’s do this.

   

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Carlos Beltran to Astros: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Outfielder Carlos Beltran will spend his 20th MLB season in Houston after signing a one-year, $16 million contract with the Astros on Saturday. 

ESPN’s Buster Olney was the first to report the move, while Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports added the terms, which include a full no-trade clause.

The 39-year-old veteran is coming off his best season in recent memory, as he hit .295 with 29 home runs and 93 RBI in an All-Star campaign split between the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers.

That marked his best production since All-Star years in 2012 and 2013 with the St. Louis Cardinals, and his 151 games played were his most since 2012 as well.

Both the Yanks and Rangers kept Beltran fresh by using him often at designated hitter, as 73 of his starts came at DH.

Beltran hit .280 with seven homers and 29 RBI in 52 contests down the stretch for the Rangers last season and added some punch to their lineup.

According to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, Beltran spoke positively of his experiences with the Rangers after they were ousted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS: “I really did enjoy myself here. The time I spent here with a special group of guys was amazing. There was a great chemistry that I was able to be part of. Right now, I want to go home and take a mental break and decide what’s next for my career.”

Per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan, the nine-time All-Star also expressed interest in returning to the Rangers for the 2017 season:

The switch-hitter and potential Hall of Famer has produced at every stop during his MLB career, including stints with the Kansas City Royals, Astros, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Cardinals, Yankees and Rangers.

Despite never having won a World Series, Beltran is among the best postseason performers of all time with a .323 batting average, 16 home runs, 41 RBI, 11 stolen bases and 45 runs scored in 55 career postseason games.

His resume is matched by few, and it is easy to see why the Astros, with their championship aspirations, pushed to sign him.

Although he only spent a short amount of time with the Rangers, his absence will undoubtedly be felt in 2017, since he made the middle of the order far more dangerous.

The Astros will now reap the benefits of Beltran’s big bat, and Beltran will attempt to make at least one more run at the championship ring that has eluded him.

Houston has loaded up offensively this offseason by trading for catcher Brian McCann and signing outfielder Josh Reddick, and the addition of Beltran makes its lineup even more dangerous.

The Astros are stacked with young talent, so bringing in a veteran with a track record of playoff success like Beltran may be exactly what they need to take that next step.

                    

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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MLB Rumors: Top Trade Rumors Ahead of 2016 Winter Meetings

Although the winter meetings are sure to bring plenty of shakeups across Major League Baseball, the trade hot stove is already kicking into high gear with several huge names reportedly available for the right price.

Many of the top free agents remain untouched thus far, and while those dominoes promise to fall in the near future, some of the biggest moves made this offseason may occur on the trade market due to an apparent willingness to orchestrate some blockbuster swaps.

As the trade winds continue to blow, here is a closer look at some of the top players rumored to be available leading up to the winter meetings.

 

Andrew McCutchen

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen has long been among the most consistent producers in the game, but on the heels of arguably his worst full season in Major League Baseball, his time with the Bucs may be running out.

According to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, the Pirates and Washington Nationals have had talks involving McCutchen with Pittsburgh potentially having interest in pitchers Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez.

Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com confirmed the talks and added that the Pirates may be looking to acquire Lopez, outfield prospect Victor Robles and one other player.

The 2016 season was undoubtedly a disappointment for McCutchen, as he hit a career-low .256 with 24 home runs, 79 RBI and a career-low six stolen bases.

McCutchen was an All-Star in each of the previous five seasons and finished fifth or better in the NL MVP voting in each of the previous four seasons, including winning the award in 2013.

While 2016 was a down year, McCutchen was one of MLB‘s top five-tool threats for several seasons leading up to that. He has hit at least 21 home runs every seasons since 2011, he drove in at least 83 runs every year from 2011 through 2015 and he has stolen 20 or more bases in a season five times, although his attempts have gone down progressively over the past four years.

McCutchen also won a Gold Glove in center field in 2012, and he has enough range to cover a ton of ground when healthy.

It is possible that McCutchen‘s best days are behind him at 30 years of age, so Pittsburgh’s interest in trading him is understandable.

Washington’s interest in acquiring him is equally understandable, though, since he could combine with Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner to form one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

The price may be steep in terms of young players, but a returned-to-form McCutchen may be exactly what the Nats need to reach the next level.

 

Chris Sale

Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale is undoubtedly among the top pitchers in baseball, but he could be on the move, as the struggling Sox look to shake things up.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRagSports.com, the Nationals, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top teams that have show interest in dealing for the electric lefty.

Heyman also noted the type of value Chicago is hoping to land in return:

The 27-year-old has been a starting pitcher for five seasons, and he has finished sixth or better in American League Cy Young voting in each of those seasons.

Sale tied his career high with 17 wins last season to go along with a 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 233 strikeouts in 226.2 innings.

Few pitchers in baseball have nastier stuff than Sale, and the fact that he is both tall and a lefty makes him seem nearly unhittable at times.

A well-documented outburst that saw Sale cut up the team’s throwback jerseys last season may have soured his relationship with the organization, and it is fair to wonder if it is playing a role in Chicago’s potential desire to deal him.

The White Sox are a team that can’t seem to escape mediocrity, however, and the easiest way to take a different approach is by trading a star that will bring back multiple assets.

Sale would do precisely that, and he could also make a team a top World Series contender due to his ability to anchor a starting rotation.

 

Jay Bruce

Following the return of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the New York Mets in free agency, Jay Bruce’s days in the Big Apple could be numbered.

The Mets acquired Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds prior to the trade deadline last season, and although he hit 33 home runs overall and was named to his third All-Star team, he hit just .217 with eight homers and 19 RBI in 50 games with the Mets.

That makes him expendable, and one team that has shown major interest is the Toronto Blue Jays, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

The Jays may lose both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in free agency, and they will be in dire need of additional power should that happen.

Bruce is a streaky player, but the 29-year-old has 241 career home runs to his credit, including four seasons with 30 or more homers.

Toronto plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark much like Cincinnati, so Bruce could bounce back from his rough stretch with the Mets should a trade be consummated.

Bruce isn’t as reliable as Bautista and Encarnacion when they are healthy, but he would come at a cheaper price and the commitment wouldn’t be as great since he can become a free agent next offseason.

A similar player in Mark Trumbo made the leap to the AL East last season and enjoyed a career year with the Baltimore Orioles, and something similar could occur for Bruce in Toronto.

 

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