Kuzul

The baseball world is about to descend on National Harbor in Maryland, as MLB‘s 2016 winter meetings are set to kick off on Monday. And things are sure to be rather interesting.

That’s not to say that it hasn’t been an interesting offseason thus far. But with names like Chris Archer, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Encarnacion, Andrew McCutchen and Chris Sale all making the rounds on the rumor mill, it’s easy to believe that the baseball world is about to be turned upside down. 

While the winter meetings often serve as the place that future deals are born, it’d be shocking if there weren’t a few notable transactions completed while the baseball universe takes over the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center.

Will Encarnacion sign? Is McCutchen going to be traded? Who, among Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, will be the first of the elite closers to come off the market?

What follows are five impact deals that we believe will be pulled off during baseball’s annual gathering, some of them providing answers to the questions above.

Begin Slideshow

Under normal circumstances, a pitcher coming off a major shoulder procedure who posted an 11.81 ERA in extremely limited action the previous season wouldn’t be a winter head-turner.

These aren’t normal circumstances.

The free-agent shelves are bare, especially in the starting pitcher department. Marquee trade options may require ludicrous expenditures of young talent. 

Enter Tyson Ross. Flawed as he is, he’s a name worth following.

On Friday, the San Diego Padres didn’t tender Ross a contract, making the 29-year-old right-hander a free agent.

Ross underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in October. The recovery time is usually between four and six months, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, which means Ross could be available at the start of the 2017 season if not before.

It’s always a gamble to sink dollars into a player recovering from a debilitating injury, especially a pitcher. Not so long ago, however, Ross was a sizzling hot commodity.

In 2014, he posted a 2.81 ERA with 195 strikeouts in 195.2 innings and made the All-Star team. In 2015, he fanned 212 in 196 innings with a 3.26 ERA.

His name floated through the trade-rumor mill last winter, but the Pads had some justifiably sky-high demands, as CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder noted:

It’s easy to conjure Javier Baez’s breakout performance in the 2016 postseason and scoff at the notion. It shows, however, how high Ross’ stock was soaring.

Coughing up seven earned runs in his only 2016 start—on Opening Day, no less—and eventually going under the knife knocked Ross down several dozen pegs. 

But in a dismal class headlined by 36-year-old Rich Hill followed by a mishmash of middling options such as Jason Hammel, Ivan Nova and Doug Fister, Ross sparkles with high-reward possibility. 

There are high-profile trade candidates such as the Chicago White Sox‘s Chris Sale and Detroit Tigers‘ Justin Verlander, but they’ll cost a trove of prospects.

Ross, on the other hand, won’t take minor league chips and could be had on a shorter-term, incentive-laden deal. 

Other pitchers have returned successfully from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Jaime Garcia underwent the procedure in 2014 and posted a 2.43 ERA the following season for the St. Louis Cardinals. 

It’s not all sunshine and roses. It’s an uncommon surgery, and the results are often less than stellar, as Nick Lampe of Beyond the Box Score starkly spelled out.

Still, Ross will surely draw attention from a number of clubs, including—but by no means limited to—the Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. Phil Rogers of MLB.com said Ross has been “a favorite” of the Chicago Cubs front office for some time.

Even the Friars aren’t slamming the door.

“The interest is there for us,” San Diego general manager A.J. Preller said after the Padres non-tendered Ross, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We know what kind of competitor he is, what kind of worker he is.” 

The Pads, CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder noted, would likely have had to pay Ross upward of $10 million in arbitration, so any reunion would require a significant cut from that high-water mark. 

More likely, Ross will don a different uniform and become a classic reclamation project.

He’s not a sure thing. He might even be a long shot. He’s a possible diamond in the rubble, however, the type of player we could be looking back on in nine or 10 months while talking about bargains and rebirths. 

The projection systems are bullish, with Steamer foretelling a 3.41 ERA in 181 innings. That’s the stuff of a solid mid-rotation starter.

What if Ross could regain his 2014-15 mojo, though? What if he could transform back into the All-Star who warranted Javy Baez rumors?

Is that probable? No. Possible? You bet.

If you can’t dream in early December, when can you?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Los Angeles Angels star Albert Pujols‘ status for Opening Day in 2017 could be up in the air after undergoing surgery on his right foot.

Continue for updates.

Latest on Pujols’ Timeline to Return

Friday, Dec. 2

The Angels issued a statement announcing Pujols underwent surgery on his right plantar fascia, and the normal estimated recovery time is four months.

This is yet another physical setback for Pujols, who underwent foot surgery in the offseason, which jeopardized his status for the start of the 2016 campaign. He also had arthroscopic knee surgery in 2012 and suffered through plantar fasciitis in 2013.

Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register noted before the 2016 season that Pujols seemed “more open to DHing now,” given his injury history.

Pujols played a career-high 123 games at designated hitter in 2016 because of his foot problems and declining skills in the field. He did hit 31 home runs, but his .323 on-base percentage was the second-lowest mark of his career. 

When healthy, Pujols has been one of the best players in baseball over the course of the last 15 years, and the 10-time All-Star, six-time Silver Slugger, three-time National League MVP and two-time Gold Glove winner gives the Angels power in their lineup alongside Mike Trout. 

Despite that sterling resume, Pujols hasn’t been the same dominant force for the Angels as he was with the St. Louis Cardinals during his prime:

Injuries and age have been factors in the decline in production, and it’s unlikely he will ever return to being anything close to what he was at his peak or even when he had an .859 OPS in his first season with the Angels.

The Angels can use a combination of Jefry Marte and C.J. Cron at first base or designated hitter if Pujols is unable to be back before the season starts in April. 

While the Angels at least have some pieces to help them remain afloat without Pujols, they are a more dangerous offense when he is in the lineup and producing behind Trout.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The San Diego Padres have made this year’s crop of free-agent pitchers more intriguing by opting not to give right-handed pitcher Tyson Ross a contract for 2017. 

Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Padres did not tender Ross a contract, and he immediately becomes a free agent. 

Ross only appeared in one game last season, giving up seven earned runs in 5.1 innings before his right shoulder flared up and caused him to miss the rest of the year with inflammation. 

In October, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, Ross opted to undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s the same procedure New York Mets pitcher Matt Harvey had in July that ended his 2016 season prematurely. 

Cassavell noted Ross’ recovery timetable is four to six months, which would put him on track to return as soon as February or as late as mid-April. 

Prior to 2016, Ross was one of the best pitchers in the National League the previous three seasons. He posted a 3.07 ERA with 526 strikeouts and 437 hits allowed in 516.2 innings and made a total of 64 starts in 2013-15. 

Per FanGraphs, Ross ranked ninth among all NL starters who had at least 500 innings pitched from 2013-15 with 9.6 wins above replacement. 

Matt Snyder of CBSSports.com noted how starkly things changed for Ross and the Padres from 2015 to the point where the former All-Star was not tendered a contract:

This year’s crop of free-agent pitchers is horrendous, with 36-year-old Rich Hill being the top available arm because he can miss bats, despite having no history of staying healthy. 

Ross’ recent track record certainly makes him a cautionary tale for whatever team wants to take a chance on him, but if he returns to anything close to his previous skill level, the 29-year-old will end up being one of the biggest bargains for anyone in search of a starting pitcher. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The San Diego Padres traded away another piece from their 2015 spending spree, sending Derek Norris to the Washington Nationals, per William Ladson of MLB.com.

Per Nationals Communications on MLBlogs.com, the Padres will receive minor league right-hander Pedro Avila back in the deal. 

Norris was one of a number of players Padres general manager A.J. Preller acquired before 2015 in an effort to immediately turn San Diego in to a contender. Preller’s plan was a disaster, as the team finished fourth in the National League West.

After a solid debut season for the Padres in 2015, in which he posted a .250/.305/.404 slash line with 14 home runs, Norris collapsed last season. He posted career lows in average (.186), on-base percentage (.255), slugging percentage (.328) and OPS+ (56). 

Per FanGraphs, among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances in 2016, Norris’ minus-.4 wins above replacement ranked last. 

The Padres had until 8 p.m. ET on Friday to tender Norris a contract for 2017, as he is arbitration-eligible and under team control for two more seasons.  

Moving Norris on allows the team to focus more on the development of Austin Hedges, who is almost certainly the future at catcher. Christian Bethancourt, 25, could be the long-term answer, but Hedges will likely be the front office’s first pick to replace Norris.

The 24-year-old appeared in 56 major league games last year, batting .168 with three homers and 11 RBI. After recovering from a hamate bone fracture in his left hand, he has looked great in Triple-A. In 191 plate appearances, he has a .367 batting average and a .729 slugging percentage to go along with 17 home runs and 61 RBI.

The Padres should feel confident his second promotion to the bigs will go better than the first.

Plus, they got a young arm in the deal who at least offers some upside. Avila will turn 20 in January and spent all of last season in Low-A, holding his own with a 3.48 ERA, 92 strikeouts, 86 hits allowed and 38 walks in 93 innings. 

Given Avila’s small stature—he’s listed at 5’11” and 170 pounds on MiLB.com—starting likely isn’t in his future. But there’s a lot to like about his arm. He was ranked as Washington’s No. 23 prospect in 2016 by MLB.com, with two quality pitches already at his disposal:

The right-hander’s fastball sits at 91-93 mph with some arm-side run and sink, and he’s already adept at commanding it on both sides of the plate. Avila’s curveball is his go-to secondary offering, thrown in the mid-70s with 11-to-5 shape and good depth. His feel for the pitch is advanced, as he’ll throw it for a strike early in at-bats before taking it out of the zone to induce whiffs. 

The Padres embraced their need to rebuild last year when they dealt Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz to the Boston Red Sox in separate deals to bolster their farm system. It will take time for their new young talent to develop before results show at the MLB level, but the front office finally has them headed in the right direction. 

The Nationals know Norris as well as any team in MLB. They originally drafted him out of high school in 2007, and he spent the first three seasons of his professional career in Washington’s system before being traded to the Oakland Athletics as part of the Gio Gonzalez trade. 

Norris isn’t among the elite at his position, but he was a consistent hitter and defensive catcher in his final two years with the Oakland Athletics and first year with the Padres. If he can get back to that, then this trade will be more than worth it.

The Nationals were in need of a catcher with Wilson Ramos entering free agency. Norris may not be their long-term solution at the position because of his poor performance in 2016, but he gives manager Dusty Baker options and is a good buy-low candidate who didn’t cost any significant assets to acquire.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While there have been a few significant moves already in MLB since the World Series wrapped up roughly a month ago, things generally don’t get going until the annual winter meetings, which are set for Dec. 4-8 in National Harbor, Maryland.

There figures to be no shortage of blockbuster trades and notable free-agent signings during the upcoming event, but before that happens, let’s make some predictions.

What follows is a look at the top 25 free agents and trade targets on the market with predictions from six of our top MLB writers on where they will land.

These six writers made up our panel of prognosticators:

• Seth Gruen, National MLB Columnist
• Danny Knobler, MLB Lead Writer
• Joel Reuter, National MLB Columnist
• Zachary Rymer, MLB Lead Writer
• Jacob Shafer, National MLB Columnist
• Rick Weiner, National MLB Columnist

Having six writers weigh in gave us plenty of different opinions, and in the end we only had two consensus predictions among the 25 players.

It will be fun to look back in a few months to see who got the most picks right, but for now, here’s our best guess at how this year’s free-agent and trade markets will unfold this winter.

Begin Slideshow

There’s a video you can find on the internet showing Eric Thames wearing a crown made of flowers, just after he was named Most Valuable Player last year in South Korea.

Good luck finding anything like that from Kris Bryant or Mike Trout.

It’s a nice ceremony and a nice award, but it’s also a pleasant reminder of how different professional baseball is in South Korea, where the NC Dinos play in a ballpark with a center field fence just 381 feet from home plate and where the pitchers rarely throw upper-90s fastballs.

Baseball in South Korea is different, which is why it’s so tough to know what to make of Thames’ new three-year, $16 million contract to be the Milwaukee Brewers‘ first baseman. It’s either the biggest bargain deal for an MVP or the worst shot in the dark on a guy who hit .220 with six home runs in his last major league season.

But maybe, just maybe, Eric Thames can be Cecil Fielder.

Not Prince Fielder, the one-time Brewers first baseman whose career progressed the usual way, from first-round draft pick to major league All-Star. Cecil, Prince’s dad, went from a part-time player with the Toronto Blue Jays to a starring role with the Detroit Tigers, with a great season in Japan in the middle.

That sounds just a little like Thames, a part-time player with the Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners who went to South Korea and became a star. His numbers were almost hard to believe, with a .348 batting average and 124 home runs in 388 games over three seasons, including the first 40-homer/40-steal season in KBO League history.

“Cecil Fielder went to Japan and learned an approach that worked for him,” one longtime American League scout said. “What you’re betting on with Thames is he’s learned how to be a hitter.”

The AL scout saw Thames play in Korea and thinks it’s possible he has. He said the player he saw with the Dinos did a much better job recognizing breaking balls than the guy he watched with the Blue Jays.

“No one can deny that,” he said. “He’s got a plan now. Do I think he can play in the big leagues? No doubt. He can definitely play in the big leagues.”

But can the 30-year-old Thames be anything like the star he was in Korea? That question is so much harder to answer, and it’s why a low-budget team like the Brewers could sign him for what amounts to a $16 million lottery ticket.

It’s worth remembering many of the same questions were asked about Fielder when the Tigers signed him to a two-year, $3 million contract in January 1990. Fielder hit 38 home runs in just 106 games in his one year in Japan, but what did that mean when you translated it to Major League Baseball?

In his case, it meant 51 home runs in his first year back, the most homers any major league player had hit in 13 years. It meant back-to-back second-place finishes in American League MVP voting.

Fielder went to Japan at a time when there were no Japanese-born players in the major leagues. Thames comes back from South Korea at a time when nine South Korean-born players were active in the majors this past year alone. Players such as Jung Ho Kang and Hyun Soo Kim have been good enough to earn the KBO League some respect.

Kang and Kim were stars in South Korea, but neither put up numbers to match Thames’ 2015 season, when he had a 1.288 OPS and 140 RBI in 142 games.

The comparisons are useful because they played in the same league in South Korea, facing similar pitchers under similar conditions. But Thames is different because he grew up in the U.S. and has played in the major leagues before. The real question is whether the time overseas turned him into a better player.

C.J. Nitkowski thinks that’s possible.

Nitkowski works for Fox Sports and MLB Network Radio now, but in his previous life, he was a pitcher who left the major leagues to go to Japan and South Korea. He pitched four seasons in Asia toward the end of his career, and while it didn’t help him get back to the big leagues, he saw benefits.

“Sometimes there, you can relax,” Nitkowski said. “You’ve got guaranteed money, and you’re not worried about the ups and downs as much. Talent has a chance to shine.”

Nitkowski mentioned Colby Lewis, who was an up-and-down pitcher before going to Japan. After two good years there, he returned as a solid rotation piece for the Texas Rangers.

Lewis was 30 when he came back to the major leagues, the same age Thames is now.

There aren’t that many other examples because there just aren’t that many players who leave North America, become stars in Asia and then return to the majors. And there aren’t that many position players who try it.

Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, an outstanding website that follows Korean baseball, compiled a list of 30 players who left the major leagues to go to Korea, then returned and played at least one more game in the majors. All but four of the 30 were pitchers, and none of the four position players had a career track that resembles Thames’.

Maybe that fits because Thames has always been a little eccentric. His Twitter bio lists him as the “Enforcer for the NC Dinos and Sosnick Cobbe Sports (his agents). Meathead, gamer, weirdo and proud representative of the Thames clan.”

And he could add potential trailblazer. If his MLB-KBO-MLB path works as well as Fielder’s Japan detour did two decades ago, maybe others will be emboldened to try it too.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The recently signed labor agreement answers so many questions, namely that we’ll have baseball in 2017. But also that free agency is sure to begin in short order.

Over the next several weeks, which include the baseball winter meetings, a flurry of deals should be made—both in free agency and the trade market. But given that there has been little action this offseason, there is so much we don’t know about how the next few weeks might play out.

And, well, this raises a whole bunch of other questions. Let’s go ahead and try to get some answers.

Begin Slideshow

If anyone’s having trouble imagining Andrew McCutchen wearing something other than a Pittsburgh Pirates uniform, don’t worry. Soon you won’t have to.

Because it’ll be reality.

This is according to the hot-stove season’s Masters of Whispers. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Wednesday that McCutchen, a five-time National League All-Star and one-time NL MVP, is the “most likely to go” of the star players on the trading block this winter. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports forcefully concurred:

McCutchen, 30, obviously hasn’t been moved yet. If the center fielder is still in the same frame of mind he was at the end of the season, he’s not sweating it wherever he is.

“I’m under contract with them, right? That’s the way I’m looking at it,” he told MLB.com’s Adam Berry. “I don’t align the stars. I’m not the person that controls all that. I don’t do that. It’s all in God’s hands.”

Well, in this case, McCutchen‘s fate is technically in the hands of Pirates general manager Neal Huntington. While he hasn’t yet moved McCutchen, that could change before you even get to the period at the end of this sentence.

Although nothing ultimately happened, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported Thursday the Pirates had “ramped up” talks with the Washington Nationals, who preferred to get a deal done by the end of the day. They didn’t, but Friday’s a new day with plenty of time for wheelin‘ and dealin‘.

The writing on the wall is easy for the people of Pittsburgh to read: Time to say goodbye.

Oh, it’ll get dusty in there for sure. McCutchen has been with the organization since the Pirates drafted him in the first round back in 2005, after which he largely made a mockery of the minor leagues en route to his major league debut in 2009.

From then on, he’s been the Pirate.

Early on, that only meant being a bright spot on teams that were carrying on a legacy of futility dating back to the team’s last postseason trip in 1992. McCutchen averaged an .822 OPS with 17 homers and 26 stolen bases in his first three seasons, but the Pirates topped 90 losses each year.

Things started to change before the 2012 season even began. The Pirates rewarded McCutchen‘s strong beginning by brightening his future with a six-year contract extension.

“Knowing that Andrew will continue to lead the team for a bright, successful, championship future at PNC Park is a thrill for me—the organization is in a wonderful place,” Pirates chairman Bob Nutting said, via Tom Singer of MLB.com.

Nutting then turned to McCutchen and said, “You’re going to be a critical part of that as we go forward.”

Spoken like a true prophet. 

McCutchen broke out as a superstar in 2012 with a .953 OPS, 31 homers and 20 stolen bases, winning a Gold Glove as well. That helped the Pirates improve to just 83 losses. His MVP season in 2013 boosted them to 94 wins and put them back in the playoffs as one of the NL’s wild-card teams. They were a wild card again in 2014 and again in 2015 after a 98-win regular season.

McCutchen‘s average season in these three years: a .917 OPS with 23 home runs and 19 stolen bases. In the National League, only Paul Goldschmidt was worth more wins above replacement.

Which brings us to 2016, and where this story gets considerably less nostalgic.

Star players tend to fall off gradually, taking several years to go from great to good to mediocre to bad. This past season saw McCutchen take an express elevator straight to bad. His bat produced a career-low .766 OPS, and defensive runs saved charges that his defense cost the Pirates 28 runs.

Maybe this wasn’t the biggest factor in the Pirates going from 98 wins to 78, but it was a big one. Nor is it the most encouraging stepping stone toward the rest of his contract, which calls for $14 million in 2017 with a $14.5 million option for 2018.

As Passan reported, Pirates ownership did not issue a mandate that McCutchen be moved this winter. There’s a good argument that they shouldn’t move him. Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today cited that $28.5 million is plenty reasonable for a player of McCutchen‘s status, and moving him would be a jab at a fanbase that’s “certainly grown tired of hearing their management cry poor.”

Like it or not, the Pirates are a small-market team with a payroll that can only go so high. With extensive repairs to make, clearing McCutchen‘s deal and getting some talent back before his value declines any further does make sense.

As much as the man himself feels like a Pittsburgh landmark, McCutchen might need a change of scenery. For whatever reason, be it knee soreness left over from 2015 or something else, eagle-eyed observers didn’t see the same bounce in his step in 2016.

“He didn’t play with that Andrew McCutchen edge,” one American League scout told B/R’s Danny Knobler. “Maybe he just needs to get out of there and get some new scenery—unless there’s some long-term medical issue. He has been banged up.”

There is a bright side: Life after McCutchen could be just as fruitful as life with him.

In the short term, the Pirates could fill his shoes in center with the feet of Starling Marte, who’s been an elite defender in left field in addition to a fine offensive player. If Josh Bell lives up to his potential in his first full season at first base, he could more than make up for McCutchen‘s offense from 2016. Coming off a breakout season, right fielder Gregory Polanco can also help pick up the slack.

In the long term, the Pirates will reap the benefits of a farm system that could soon be in the running for the best in the league.

Jim Callis of MLB.com ranked Pittsburgh’s system at No. 4 in August. Although they’ve debuted in the majors, said system still includes Bell and right-hander Tyler Glasnow alongside well-regarded prospects such as outfielder Austin Meadows, shortstop Kevin Newman and right-hander Mitch Keller.

Per Rosenthal, there’s now buzz on getting outfielder Victor Robles from the Nationals. That would mean adding MLB.com’s No. 10 prospect.

It’s easy to hear all this and point to the big ol‘ “Maybe” implied in prospect chatter. But cultivating and establishing a core of homegrown players is essential to winning in today’s MLB. The Pirates know this from their experiences with McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, Gerrit Cole and others. They can do it again.

Trading McCutchen will be the end of an era for the Pirates. That’ll be worth lamenting. It was the first era in a while that was worth a damn, and he made it not only possible but that much more enjoyable. There should be a special place in the all-time Pirates pantheon for him.

But it’s not often that a team gets to say goodbye to one good era and hello to another. The Pirates will be in a position to do that if they trade McCutchen, and that would mean just another nice thing to say about his time in Pittsburgh.

He was always good for the Pirates, even on his way out the door.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Jung Ho Kang reportedly was charged with leaving the scene of a DUI, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News and Sung Min Kim of Vice Sports.

Kim shared a photograph of the incident in question:

Kim added that “Kang allegedly tried to flee the scene after causing an accident and was caught shortly thereafter.” The incident reportedly took place early Friday morning in Seoul, South Korea.

Rob Biertempfel of TribLive.com offered more details:

Pirates president Frank Coonelly released a statement on Kang, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

Kang apologized through his management company, courtesy of NBC Sports’ Craig Calcaterra:

I’d like to apologize to everyone who is disappointed with me. Today, I got behind the wheel after drinking and committed an irrevocable mistake. I panicked at the moment of the accident and did something that I never should have done. I am deeply regretting the incident. I will humbly accept whatever punishment is deemed fit for my actions.

Kang, 29, has also been the subject of a sexual assault case. A 23-year-old woman said the pair met at a Westin Hotel in Chicago and Kang gave her a drink. The woman then said she drifted in and out of consciousness, per Andrew Goldstein of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Kang was never charged with a crime in the incident, although he was named as a suspect. Chicago police have said the accuser has not cooperated fully with the investigation.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com