Kuzul

I’m writing this article as a follow-up to MLB Prospects: Kansas City Royals‘ Tim Collins Pitching Taller Than He Really Is.

5′ 7″, 175-pound Tim Collins wasn’t on the 40-man roster when camp opened up for the Kansas City Royals on February 14, in Surprise, AZ. In fact, Collins wasn’t even drafted.

He will, however, be on the team’s opening day roster as Kansas City hosts the the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

A unique story to say the least—to learn more about Collins’ rise to the major leagues please follow this link. 

Collins’ fastball reaches in upwards of 95 mph or higher, probably about 10-12 mph more then when he signed at about 145 pounds.

He’s gained strength and put on weight, having been training with a program set up by trainer Eric Cressey, who’s catered to Red Sox superstars including Curt Schilling and Kevin Youkilis at his gym, Cressey Performance in Hudson, Mass.

Collins was acquired by the Royals on July 31, 2010 from Atlanta, along with pitcher Jesse Chavez and outfielder Gregor Blanco in a deal that sent pitcher Kyle Farnsworth and outfielder Rick Ankiel to the Braves.

That all came just 17 days after Collins had been shipped to the Braves by the Blue Jays in another trade. Collins fit in nicely with the Royals’ Triple-A club at Omaha, posting a 1.33 ERA, two wins and four saves in 15 games.

Collins received word from coach Ned Yost this morning that he had made the roster, the Royals returned (LHP) Robert Fish, a Rule 5 guy, to the Angels to clear a 40-man spot for Collins. He and Robert Fish were the only two lefties in competition for bullpen spots.

Rule 5 provisions mean Fish must remain in the big leagues for the entire season or be offered back to his former club. While there are notable exceptions—Joakim Soria for example, (ironically the closer Collins will be setting up for)—few Rule 5 picks make it.

Through nine outings this spring, Collins has pitched 10.1 innings with a 2.61 ERA and 12 strikeouts, including a scoreless ninth versus the Diamondbacks on Saturday for the save.

Collins throws unusually hard for a pitcher that’s 5′ 7″ and his delivery makes it difficult for batters to follow and pick up on the ball. 

Collins will earn a significant pay increase from the construction job direction he was headed towards before being discovered. He will earn a reported $417,000, which is the major league minimum. 

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FLORIDA MARLINS 

Last Year: 80-82, 3rd in NL East  

Manager: Edwin Rodriguez

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- John Buck (R) 

1B- Gabby Sanchez (R)

2B- Omar Infante (R)

3B- Donnie Murphy (R) 

SS- Hanley Ramirez (R)

LF- Logan Morrison (L)

CF- Chris Coghlan (L)

RF- Matt Stanton (R)

The Marlins definetly have some talent in this lineup, but the team will miss Dan Uggla’s power. Hanley Ramirez is still the most dangerous player on the team. Ramirez still has 25 home run power and the ability to hit over .300 and steal 30 plus bases. The 27-year-old Gaby Sanchez will be moved to the fifth spot in the lineup though he is an ideal sixth place hitter. Sanchez’s numbers are solid for any position on the field but are below average for a first baseman. Sanchez has 20 home run power and should put up a solid line of .275/.345/.455. The versatile Omar Infante will bat in the two hole and should hit .300 with 7-10 home runs and will be holding the spot for some of the franchise’s prospects. Donnie Murphy will got the shot at 3B to start the season, but I don’t envision him there for very long. My bet is that Dominguez gets called up some time this year. 

Marlins fans are excited to see what right fielder Mike Stanton can do with a full season in the majors. In 396 at-bats, Stanton hit 22 home runs, and I think he will hit anywhere from 35-40 home runs with with a .260/.340/.550 line. Stanton will strike out 30 percent of the time, but his power is worth it. Logan Morrison will bat in the lower half of the lineup after getting more than 200 ABs in the second half of last season. Check out Morrison’s projected line in the breakout player section. Chris Coghlan will bat leadoff for the club after hurting his knee in a pie celebration last season. Coghlan struggled in his sophomore season after in impressive rookie campaign, and many are predicting numbers in between the two seasons. A .295/.360/.430 line and 10 home runs can be expected in this rebound season. Offensively, John Buck will be an upgrade of the group the Marlins had in the lineup for 2010. He won’t have the same numbers he had in hitter friendly Rogers Centre, but he can help the Marlins with 15-18 home runs and .250-.270 average down in the bottom of the order. 

The Marlins were a below-average defensive team in 2010, and I think they will be worse in 2010. Chris Coghlan didn’t play a great LF, and I think he will be even worse in CF coming off of knee surgery. Mike Stanton is the best defensive player the Marlins have, but he is negated in the outfield by the below average Logan Morrison. The team’s only significant upgrade was John Buck behind the plate. Gabby Sanchez and Omar Infante are average on the right side of the infield, but Hanley Ramirez had a tough year in terms of range. Matt Dominguez should help him out one the left side with his above average glove and range. Overall, this is should be one of the league’s poorer defensive units. 

BENCH

IF/OF- Emilio Bonifacio (S)

IF- Wes Helms (R) 

OF- Scott Cousins (L) 

C- Brett Hayes (R) 

OF- DeWayne Wise (L) 

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Josh Johnson 

RHP- Ricky Nolasco 

RHP- Javier Vazquez 

RHP- Annibal Sanchez

RHP- Chris Volstad

The Marlins’ rotation pitched fairly well in 2010 and it is the strongest component of this 2011 team. Josh Johnson has proved over the last two seasons that he is one of the top five starting pitchers in baseball. Johnson has great control, walking only 2.35 per 9 innings, and strikeout stuff. His 95 MPH fastball has tons of movement and he works a very good slider and average change off of it. Johnson will average almost a stirkeout per innings and with his excellent groundout and HR rates should make him a contender for the CY Young. The inconsistent Ricky Nolasco will start behind Johnson. Nolasco has the talent to be a consistent number two starter in this league, but he has been the recipient of some bad luck recently. His ERA has been 5.06 and 4.51 over the last two years but xFIP says that he should have been pitching at 3.28 and 3.55. His K/BB is an excellent 4.43 over the last three years, but he has been hurt by a low LOB percentage. I expect Nolasco to put up an ERA in he 3.75-3.90 range and K/BB of 4.

Javier Vazquez struggled in his return to New York because of his drop in velocity from 91.7 MPH in 2009 to 88.7 MPH in 2010. In some of those starts, Vazquez was throwing an 84-86 MPH fastball that PITCH/FX misleadingly called a change up. I don’t think his velocity will come back, and it seems all the years of throwing 200 plus innings have caught up to him. No matter what, Vazquez will welcome the opportunity to return to the NL. Annibal Sanchez did well in his first full season in the majors throwing has best fastball in years (91.3 MPH). He relies heavily on his dominant slider, but he will mix his change and curveball effectively. I like his chances repeating similar numbers in 2011 with 7.5 K/9 and having a 3.50 ERA. Chris Volstad relies on his sinking fastball to induce groundouts, but he is BB, K, and HR rate have kept him from being a from being a reliable starter. He needs to work on his command and his HR rate if he is to improve. 

BULLPEN

RHP- Leo Nunez (Closer) 

RHP- Clay Hensley 

RHP- Ryan Webb

RHP- Edward Mujica  

LHP- Randy Choate  

LHP- Mike Dunn  

RHP- Burke Badenhop or RHP Brian Sanches 

The Marlins remade the bullpen in the offseason but the team decided to keep Leo Nunez as closer. Nunez had a good season in 2010, using his devastating change-up to strike-out 1 per inning and recording a 3.46 ERA. Nunez isn’t one of the best, but he is cheap and can get the job done for the Marlins. Clay Hensley became Florida’s main setup man after posting a 2.16 ERA. Hensley changed his approach by throwing his curveball more often. It was one of the more effective pitches during the season and transformed Hensley from mop-up man to setup man.

I like what the Marlins did with the rest of the bullpen by acquiring hard throwing Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica from the Padres. Both have decent control and Mujica will strikeout 8-9 per 9 innings. Ryan Webb, a groundball specialist, is the type of reliever the Marlins have lacked in the past. Randy Choate is a sidearming left-handed specialist who is tough on lefties, but gets killed by right-handed hitters. Mike Dunn will join Choate as the other lefty out of the pen. Dunn throws hard (avg 94.8 MPH) but his control leaves a lot to be desired. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES

RHP- Shawn Hill

IF/OF- Greg Dobbs (L)

IF- Ruben Gotay (S)

OF- Dewayne Wise (L) 

IF- Donnie Murphy (R) 

BREAKOUT PLAYER- Logan Morrison  

Logan Morrison has the ability to become a consistent .300 hitter for this Marlins team. While he does have the tendency to strikeout, he does possess wonderful plate discipline and the ability to get on base consistently. He isn’t a power hitter, but I can see Morrison can hit to all fields and to the gaps. I see Morrison hitting close to .295/.390/.440 with 12-15 home runs this season. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- 3B Matt Dominguez

Dominguez is considered the Marlins’ top prospect, but there are questions concerning whether or not his bat is ready for the show. Defensively, he is considered above average and ready to make an impact. He has the ability to hit approximately 15 home runs but only expect a line around .250/.320/.400 in his first season. He might not be ready, but I say its worth the risk for the Marlins to throw him out there. 

PROJECTED FINISH- 3rd in NL East 

The Marlins have a good enough rotation and enough offense to make a run in the AL East. I don’t think they will stay in it for the entire season, but the Marlins should finish above .500. The group has talent but the young players just are not ready yet to be a contender. The team has a good rotation, solid lineup, and improved bullpen. I get the feeling they will finish 3rd in this division, but crazy things have happened over the years.  

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Sometime, fantasy drafts look easy, but they’re really not.

Some owners feel like they’ve scored with their picks, and some owners realize a week later that there are a lot of holes on their team. Then there are the lazy owners who left their drafts to auto-picking, only to realize their team looks horrible. But there is still hope to fix the team, and MLB Featured Columnist Tony Capobianco will go over every scenario.

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LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Last Year: 80-82, fourth in NL West

Manager: Don Mattingly 

PROJECTED LINEUP

C- Rod Barajas (R)

1B- James Loney (L)

2B- Juan Uribe (R) 

3B- Casey Blake (R) (Will probably start season on DL)

SS- Rafael Furcal (S)

LF- Jay Gibbons (L)/ Marcus Thames (R)

CF- Matt Kemp (R)

RF- Andre Either (L)

The Dodgers offense struggled in 2010 ranking 21st in runs scored, and 27th in home runs. Andre Either was the club’s most consistent hitter last season, and he has been one of the more consistent left-handed hitters over the last few seasons. 25-30 home runs and a line around .290/.365/.495 are where his numbers should be at the end of the season. Matt Kemp will hit behind Either as the cleanup hitter (checkout key player section below for more on Kemp). 

Marcus Thames and Jay Gibbons will platoon in left field after both had good seasons as role players in 2010. Thames hit very well against left-handed pitchers, but his .288 average benefited from a .345 BABIP. If he gets 300 at-bats, Thames should hit hit 15 home runs and a .240-.260 average. Gibbons should put up similar numbers with the same number of at-bats with a .250-265 average and 10-15 home runs. Rod Barajas has some power (15-18 home runs expected), but he hits for a low average and doesn’t get on base often. 

Juan Uribe, the only major position player signed during the offseason, should provide some power at the 2B position. He should hit for 20 home runs, and a line of .245/.300/.420. Rafael Furcal will continue to hit leadoff after another steady season in 2010. Furcal doesn’t have the same speed, but he should swipe 20 bases with7-10 home runs and produce a line of .285/.355/.405. Loney doesn’t have the prototypical first baseman power (10-15 home runs), and his numbers have steadily declined in every season since 2007. Expect a slight up-tick in average back to .285, but the Dodgers need to get more production from the five hole. Casey Blake is battling a rib injury, but if healthy he can produce 15-20 home runs with a .260 average in the seventh spot in the order. 

The Dodgers’ defense ranked 25th in UZR rating during the 2010 season. The infield defense was not the problem, and it should be improved with Uribe, who is considered an above average defender at 2B. Rafael Furcal may make some errors at SS, but he has great range to both sides. Casey Blake and James Loney are plus defenders on the corners. Blake has great range, and Loney is very sure handed. Rod Barajas is a great receiver behind the plate, but his caught stealing percentage is below average.

The outfield defense relies on how well Matt Kemp bounces back from his terrible defensive season. He took terrible routes to balls and was the worst rated center fielder in baseball. Andre Either was also the ranked last among right fielders, and the left field combination of Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames will make the Dodgers’ outfield defense the worst in baseball. 

BENCH

IF- Jamey Carroll (R) 

IF- Ivan DeJesus (R) 

OF- Jay Gibbons (L)/ Marcus Thames (R)

C- Dioner Navarro (S) (Will miss first month of season)

C- AJ Ellis (R) or Hector Gimenez (R)

IF- Aaron Miles (S)

OF- Xavier Paul (L)

OF- Tony Gwynn Jr.

STARTING ROTATION 

LHP- Clayton Kershaw

RHP- Chad Billingsley 

LHP- Ted Lilly 

RHP- Hiroki Kuroda 

RHP- Jon Garland (Will start season on DL)  

The Dodgers’ rotation, when fully healthy, is one of the deeper rotations in the National League. Clayton Kershaw, the ace of the Dodger staff, is often forgotten as one of the best pitchers in the league. Kershaw lost a little velocity in 2010, but he still averages 92.5 MPH on his fastball and he uses his filthy slider and decent curveball to strike out more than a hitter per inning. He still needs to work on his command, but Kershaw will pitch at around a 3.00 ERA, and still strikeout more than a hitter per inning. Clay Billingsley is a good number two starter behind Kershaw. Billingsley uses a 91-93 MPH fastball, good slider, great cutter, curveball, and changeup. His command can be a little touch and go (should have 3.5-4.00 BB/9), but his groundball rate (49 percent in 2010) and strikeout rate (usually 8 K/9) should leave his ERA around 3.50 for the season. 

The soft tossing left-hander, Ted Lilly, will be the number three starter. Lilly uses a good slow curve, slider, and changeup with his 86-88 MPH fastball to get a lot of flyballs and strikeout more than 7 per 9 innings. Lilly will benefit pitching in Dodger Stadium for the entire season, and should pitch to a 3.40-3.60 ERA. Hiroki Kuroda may be one of the more underrated pitchers in the league. His xFIP (3.5&) indicates that his 3.36 ERA indicates his success in 2010. Kuroda features three plus pitches: a fastball that averages 92.5 MPH, a hard breaking slider, and good splitter. Kuroda will strike out close something close to 7 per 9 innings and pitch to a mid 3 ERA. 

The Dodgers will start the season with only four starters until a fifth will be needed later in the month. Jon Garland is on the DL with a strained oblique, but he will be one of the best fifth starters in baseball when he returns. He is a good groundball pitcher, who usually displays good command (2010 was an exception), and should pitch to a 3.90-4.10 ERA when he returns.   

BULLPEN

RHP- Jonathan Broxton (Closer) 

LHP- Hong-Chih Kuo 

RHP- Matt Guerrier 

RHP- Kenley Jansen 

RHP- Blake Hawksworth 

RHP- Mike MacDougal 

RHP- Lance Cormier or LHP- Scott Elbert

RHP- Vincente Padilla (On DL until late April) 

Jonathan Broxton comes into the 2011 season on shaky footing after loosing the closer job late last season.Broxton’s walk rate increased to 4.04 per 9 innings, but his .366 BABIP inflated his ERA to 4.04. His xFIP indicated he should have been pitching to an ERA in the low 3.00’s, so look for Broxton to have a bounce back season. Kuo was one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in baseball last season pitching to a 1.20 ERA.Kuo’s mid 90’s fastball and good slider make him tough for both right and left-handed hitters to face. His good strikeout numbers and unbelievable home run rate should allow him to pitch at a high level again if he remains healthy. 

Matt Guerrier has become a good setup man over the last few seasons despite lacking strikeout stuff. He uses good control and a starter’s repertoire to pitch to an ERA in the 3.40-3.70 range. Kenley Jansen, the converted catcher, showed great stuff in 25 games with the Dodgers last season. Jansen’s control can be spotty, but his 94-96 MPH fastball is very heavy, and he has shown a very good slider. He has been able to strikeout more than 13 per 9 innings at every level during the last two seasons. 

Blake Hawksworth looks like he will pitch some long relief to begin the season. Mike MacDougal looks like he will make the roster as a non roster invitee. MacDougal is a groundball specialist with a heavy 94.7 MPH two-seamer and slider, but his command is all over the place. Scott Elbert and Lance Cormier are still battling it out for the last spot in the rotation, but I bet Elbert gets the last spot so Mattingly can have another left-handed pitcher at his disposal. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP- Roman Colon

RHP- Lance Cormier 

RHP- Mike MacDougal 

LHP- Dana Eveland 

RHP- Tim Redding 

RHP- Oscar Villareal 

IF- Juan Castro (R)

IF- Aaron Miles (S)

OF- Gabe Kapler (R)

KEY PLAYER- Matt Kemp

It is no coincidence that both the when Matt Kemp struggles the entire Dodgers team struggles. Kemp can’t hit .249 again if the Dodgers want to make a run at the NL West. In addition, Kemp had the worst UZR among any center fielder, mostly because of bad routes to the ball. Kemp seemed like he was in a daze the entire 2010 season, but he has too much talent not to rebound in 2011. Look for Kemp to hit 25-28 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a line of .285/.340/.485. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- SS Dee Gordon (L)

Dee Gordon has all the tools to be a dangerous offensive weapon in the majors. Gordon does not have much power, but he can hit line drives to all areas of the field. Many scouts project him as a dangerous .300 hitter, but his number one weapon is his speed. He stole 53 bases in AA last season. He does need to work on his defense, but getting a year at AAA will do him well. If everything goes according to plan, Dodger fans could see him in a uniform in September.  

PROJECTED FINISH- Third in NL West

The Dodgers should improve over a poor 2010 season, but the offensive holes at catcher and left field are too big to ignore. The team will finish in fourth place again if Matt Kemp struggles, but if the Dodgers could contend if he plays well. Overall, I think the Dodgers will be in it until September finishing above .500, but the Giants and Rockies have better overall teams. 

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When Los Angeles Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia announced last Thursday that starting pitcher Scott Kazmir would open the season as a member of the starting rotation, he was asked by reporters whether or not Kazmir had earned the spot.

“Earned?” Scioscia said. “Define ‘earned.’”

Not exactly a stirring vote of confidence.

However, Kazmir, who struggled last season with a 9-15 record and a 5.94 ERA, is owed $14.5 million this season.

Considering what the Angels gave up in return for him, they are not quite ready to give up on the enigmatic southpaw right away.

However, the wait won’t be long.

The Angels have one of the better starting rotations in the American League with their top four pitchers (Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro).

But the last thing the Angels can afford is to wonder whether or not they’ll have struggles every fifth day with Kazmir on the mound.

“He’s tried a lot of things, but there hasn’t been one simple adjustment he’s been able to make that has brought consistency,” Scioscia told the Los Angeles Times. “We need it. He needs it. We’re past the point of development. We need him to pitch the way he’s capable of pitching.”

If Kazmir is unable to right the ship and return to his form from 2006 to 2008, when he was one of the more dominant left-handed pitchers in baseball, the Angels will need to look for a dependable arm to replace him in the rotation.

Here are five options.

For continuing coverage of the Los Angeles Angels, follow Doug on Twitter @HalosHub.

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Last Year

85-77, 4th in AL East 

Manager: John Farrell 

PROJECTED LINEUP

C – JP Arencibia (R)

1B – Adam Lind (L)

2B – Aaron Hill (R)

3B – Jose Bautista (R)

SS – Yunel Escobar (R)

LF – Travis Snider (L)

CF – Rajai Davis (R)

RF – Juan Rivera (R)

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (R)

The Blue Jays led baseball in home runs in 2010, but were inconsistent due to a lack of speed and ability to get on base. The team was in the bottom five of both OBP and stolen bases and will loose some of that power with the exits of Vernon Wells and John Buck.

Jose Bautista shouldn’t be expected to hit 54 home runs again. His 2010 was special, but its hard to believe he will repeat any of those numbers in 2011. I expect him to hit approximately 35 home runs and post an OBP of .350 and .365.

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind had very poor seasons, both with OBP under .300, after breakout years in 2009. I think they will play better than last season, but don’t expect years like 2009.

Yunel Escobar was acquired during the deadline last year during his worst season in the majors. A change of scenery will help him this year.

JP Arencibia will replace John Buck at catcher. He had a rough 36 at-bats last year, but he has tremendous power and will benefit playing at the Rogers Centre. 

Travis Snider is set to have a big season. I was impressed by his power and at bats when I watched him play later in the season against the Yankees. Many predicted that he would break out last year, but 2011 should be the year he puts it all together. Expect more than 20 home runs with a .350 OBP.

Rajai Davis will man CF. He should bring over 40 stolen bases to this lineup, a dimension Toronto was lacking in 2010.

Juan Rivera will play the other corner outfield position, and bring marginal value with 15 home runs and a .325 OBP.

Edwin Encarnacion will get most of the at-bats at DH, but expect Farrell to shuffle some of the regulars around. Encarnacion does have good power and presents a threat at the bottom of the lineup. 

Defensively, the Blue Jays have some question marks.

The word is still out on whether Arencibia can handle the duties of catching full time.

Lind is taking over the starting 1B, a position he has only played 11 times during his major league career. His defensive metrics were strong in that small sample, but we will need to see more during this season.

The middle of the infield will be fine. Hill and Escobar are both above average at their positions. While Bautista is versatile, he doesn’t play any of the corner positions particularly well and 3B might arguably be his worst position.

Rivera is an inconsistent corner outfielder with poor range. According to the metrics, Snider is a much better in LF than RF, but it remains to be seen in which corner he will anchor. Rajai Davis is very speedy and will cover a lot of ground in CF.

BENCH

C – Jose Molina (R)

IF – John McDonald (R)

OF – Corey Patterson (L)

IF – Mike McCoy (R)

STARTING ROTATION

LHP – Ricky Romero 

RHP – Brandon Morrow (Will start season on DL with strained forearm) 

LHP – Brett Cecil 

RHP – Kyle Drabek 

RHP – Jesse Litsch 

LHP – Jo Jo Reyes 

The rotation will not be as strong with the departure of Shaun Marcum.

Ricky Romero has become the ace of the staff with his low 90s fastball and great change-up, complimented with a good curveball and serviceable slider. He induces a lot of groundballs and if he can cut get his walk total down to three per nine innings, he can be one of the top pitchers in the AL.

Brandon Morrow has all the tools to become a great starter, but I worry about the consistency in his stuff from between innings and starts. Sometimes his fastball will register at 89 compared to 95. He needs to work on his control to become an elite starter, and I don’t know if this is the year where that happen.

Brett Cecil is a solid No. 3 starter who should have an ERA in the low 4.00s.

Kyle Drabek, acquired in the Roy Halladay deal, has the potential to be great. His fastball registers in the mid-90’s, he has a good cutter, sharp curve and a serviceable change-up. I say he needs a year or two in the majors, before he has All-Star type years.

Jesse Litsch throws a lot of cutters, curveballs and change-ups, with his 89.7 mph fastball to keep hitters off balance. He will only strike out four per nine innings, but he should have an ERA in the 4.25 range.

Jo Jo Reyes will take over in the fifth spot until Morrow comes back from the DL. 

BULLPEN

RHP – Frank Francisco (Closer) (On DL)

RHP – Octavio Dotel (On DL) 

RHP – Jon Rauch 

LHP – David Purcey

RHP – Shawn Camp

RHP – Casey Janssen 

RHP – Jason Frasor 

LHP – Marc Rzepczynski

RHP – Carlos Villanueva 

I like the depth the Blue Jays have put together in the bullpen after losing some of last year’s components, and is the strongest part of the club.

They will miss Scott Downs more than Kevin Gregg.

Francisco got the early hook last year as the Ranger’s closer, but pitched well until he was injured in August. He has great stuff, and averages more than a K per inning. 

Dotel is a veteran reliever who has closed and set-up. His fastball may be losing a little velocity, but he still averages more than a K per inning. One of Dotel’s weakness is his control. (4.5 BB/9 in 2010)

Rauch also has closer experience and will start the season with Francisco and Dotel on the DL. While he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers of Francisco and Dotel, he has better control. He is a flyball pitcher who I could see have some problems in the home run park that is the Rogers Centre.

I’ve been impressed throughout the years with Shawn Camp considering his below-average stuff. He only averages 88 mph on his fastball, and there isn’t much separation between that and his change-up (83.5 mph). He can log multiple innings and somehow has been one of the more consistent middle relievers for the Blue Jays.

Jason Frasor is another power arm with strikeout ability and closing experience.

The Blue Jays are a little weaker on the left side of the rubber with the departure of Gregg. Purcey looks more suited to come out of the pen, and could fill the nicely if his command doesn’t get in the way. Rzepczynski will be the primary long man with both Dotel and Francisco injured.  

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP – Chad Cordero

RHP – Brian Stokes 

OF – Scott Podsednik (L)

OF – Corey Patterson (L)

BREAKOUT PLAYER

Travis Snider 

See Projected Lineup  

PROSPECT TO WATCH

JP Arencibia 

Arencibia is still a prospect with only 36 at-bats under his belt. Offensively, Arencibia has tremendous upside but the jury is still out on his defensive abilities. He might have a rough patch this year, but he has a great mentor in Jose Molina. 

PROJECTED FINISH

5th in AL East 

Over the last few years, the Jays have benefited from great offensive years from surprising players. I don’t think this will be the case, even with Snider.

I don’t think the offense is good enough to keep up with the other contenders in the division. While I like some members of the rotation, I don’t think this  is the year pitchers like Morrow and Drabek put it together.

They also don’t have any depth, especially in the rotation. One injury to a key player will put them out of contention quickly. Overall,I think the Jays take a step back this year, but the future is bright with new-found financial flexibility and young pitching. 

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I had the good fortune of connecting with the Milwaukee Brewers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year, Logan Schafer, and asked if he would have time for a quick interview. He didn’t at the time but we agreed to connect somewhere around the beginning to middle of spring training.

We had originally thought that we could do a phone interview but that had been discussed just prior to Schafer’s thumb injury which he suffered during a spring training game.

Instead, we decided that I would email him some questions and he would respond in kind.

Below are the results of that exchange.

Enjoy!

——–

Big Rygg: Thanks for doing the interview. I really appreciate your time. The first question I like to ask a professional athlete is always the same basic one and that is: When did you first realize that you were better than everybody else at baseball?

Most pros tend to be the best on every team they’re on growing up. From that feeling, when did you decide to pursue baseball as a career?

Logan Schafer: I have never been better than everybody else at baseball. In fact, I was rarely the best player on my team. Baseball has been a passion of mine since i was a little kid playing wiffle ball with my brothers and friends in my backyard. My love for the game has never changed or diminished.

What set me apart from other players at a young age was my ability to focus and learn how to play the game the right way. I am so thankful to have had such great coaches from a young age up through the present.

I was able to put a lot of time and energy into learning the intangibles of the game that have given me this incredible opportunity to be where I am today.

BR: How did you feel when you were drafted by a professional baseball franchise?

LS:  I was drafted three times out of college, and there was no feeling like it. I was drafted in the 31st round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, the 47th round of the 2007 draft by the Colorado Rockies, and the third round of the 2008 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers.

My first draft was incredible. It is such an unbelievable thrill to see your name pop up on that screen in front of a Major League Baseball team. I held out however, because I was physically small and felt I had more to learn before I get into pro ball and try and have success.

I continued to have two good years at Cal Poly after attending Cuesta College, and had the happiest day of my life to this point in June of 2008 when the Brew Crew selected me in the thirrd round.

BR: To be drafted that many times, no doubt plenty of scouts had seen you over the years, but I’d like to get your opinion on you. Give me a scouting report on Logan Schafer. What is/are your best tool(s)?

LS: A scouting report of Logan Schafer would have to start with the glove. I take great pride in taking hits away from people, holding runners from taking the extra base and being able to determine where the ball should be thrown before the pitch. I spend a lot of time working on positioning and getting jumps to give me the best chance to be in on every play.

Offensively I hit more for average than power, but will have occasional power to the gaps. The small game is also a big part of who I am, so controlling the bat is also something I concentrate on quite a bit.

BR: Let’s talk about the injury bug for you these past couple of years, starting with the thumb and then the groin and foot last year and whatever update you could give us after surgery, including a projection for when you think you’ll be back on the field.

LS: The injury bug is a very frustrating one, in every facet of life. Typing this is tough with a broken thumb for instance (laughs). I had surgery on my thumb yesterday and everything turned out well. The doctor is sticking with four to six weeks, but they buried the pins so I can do some workouts and keep my arm in baseball shape after a week.

My groin tear turned hernia was the worst last year, since the pain and actual injury were so hard to diagnose. It was very humbling and disappointing to find out that I broke my navicular bone in my foot in late May (last year) coming back from the other injuries.

I just had to keep my head up, and that was tough to do when that light at the end of the tunnel seemed to be running away from me at the time. I played a few games in the Arizona Fall League and started off getting back into the groove in Spring Training, and then I break my thumb breaking up a double play.

I have learned the value of patience, and as frustrating as this might be, I got to spend a few weeks of incredible baseball at big league camp. Learning from the big leaguers and seeing how they go about their business is something special. It has helped me great amount and it gives me more fire to get there again, this year.

BR: To that end, I have to ask what you think about manager Ron Roenicke’s comment that you’ve earned his call-up confidence should the need arise?

LS: Ron has been outstanding towards me since I arrived in camp. He has been such a personable and outgoing skipper and has treated all of us with the (utmost) respect.

I never once felt out of place or as if i didn’t belong in that clubhouse. I have so much respect for the way he keeps the game of baseball fun and encourages guys to test themselves by taking chances. In a short few weeks, I have learned so much that I will take with me into this year.

The comment he made about me earning his “call-up confidence” is undoubtedly a very high honor. My goal has always been to get to the big leagues and have a long career. I will continue to play the game hard and see where it takes me.

BR: So, finally, whether it happens at some point in 2011 or whenever it finally does happen for you, what will it mean to you the first time you step out on a major league field as a big leaguer?

LS: The first time I step out onto a major league field wearing a major league uniform is going to be a humbling dream come true. Every year, month, week, day, week, hour and minute I have spent playing this wonderful game of baseball has been to become a Major League Baseball Player.

I see that day all the time; I am a very big visualizer. It will be the greatest day of my life without a doubt.

—

Again, I wanted to make sure that I mention how much I appreciate Logan’s time for this interview. I’ve had a fun time doing prospect interviews and I plan on continuing the tradition going forward.

Thanks again to Logan Schafer and here’s to a quick call up to Miller Park!

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Fate can have a way from helping you win it all by snagging the best player ever, and it can totally screw you by giving you the last pick. No matter if you are a smart enough baseball fan, or the kind of fan who only knows the players on his favorite team, with the proper guidance from Bleacher Report and MLB Featured Columnist Tony Capobianco, then you too can win with a low pick.

Why the ninth pick? Because that’s the pick I got in my draft.

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COLORADO ROCKIES

Last Year: 83-79, 3rd in NL West

Manager: Jim Tracy

PROJECTED LINEUP

C—Chris Iannetta (R)

1B—Todd Helton (L)

2B—Jose Lopez (R) 

3B—Ian Stewart (L)

SS—Troy Tulowtizki (S)

LF—Carlos Gonzalez (L)

CF—Dexter Fowler (S)

RF—Seth Smith (L)

The Rockies‘ offense, led by Troy Tulowitzki, has a good balance of power, speed and the ability to get on base. However, a lot of the hitters struggled with consistency during the 2010 season. The lineup is left-handed heavy, so there will be different lineups against left-handed pitchers with Wigginton and Spilborghs on the bench. 

Tulowitzki is the best all-around player at his position. If he stays healthy, a line of .295/.370/.540, 30 home run, and 10 stolen bases should be a safe bet.

Jose Lopez, who struggled last season with the Mariners, will bat seventh in the lineup. Lopez doesn’t strikeout very often, but he only walks in three percent of his plate appearances. Coors Field should improve Lopez’s home run total to 15, with a batting average around .275. 

Ian Stewart, who will bat behind Tulowitzki, has good power and plate discipline. If he gets 600 at-bats, Stewart should hit 26-30 home runs with a .255/.345/.465.

Todd Helton isn’t the same hitter he once was, but he should hit 10 home runs while posting a .290/.410/.430 line. 

Carlos Gonzalez had a monster 2010 season in his first full season as a starter. Gonzalez still needs to work on walk and strikeout totals, but those stats should improve as he gains more experience. I don’t think he will put up numbers like 2010, but he should hit 25-30 home runs, have 20-25 stolen bases and have a line of .300/.350/.535.

Dexter Fowler will be the Rockies’ leadoff man despite his strikeout totals. Fowler should steal 20 bases after a down 2010, and provide a .270/.360/.420 line. Seth Smith will bat in the two hole against right-handers, and he should hit close to 20 home runs with a .270-285 average. 

Based on UZR ratings, the Rockies were the seventh-lowest ranked defense in baseball. Tulowitzki is the best defender in the starting lineup, with the fifth-highest UZR rating among shortstops.

Jose Lopez played third base last season for the Mariners, but he is considered an average second baseman. Todd Helton is a sure-handed first basemen, but he has lost some range over the last few years. Ian Stewart did not commit many errors at third in 2010, but his range decreased dramatically from 2009.

Chris Iannetta is not a very good behind the plate. He doesn’t have a good caught-stealing percentage, nor does he handle balls in the dirt well. Carlos Gonzalez will start the season in left field, where he plays his best overall defense. Dexter Fowler is below average in center, and Seth Smith is considered a plus defender in right. 

BENCH

IF—Ty Wigginton (R) 

1B—Jason Giambi (L)

OF—Ryan Spilborghs (R) 

C—Jose Morales (S)

IF/OF—Jonathan Herrera (S)

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP—Ubaldo Jimenez 

LHP—Jorge De La Rosa

RHP—Jhoulys Chacin

RHP—Jason Hammel 

RHP—Esmil Rogers 

RHP—Aaron Cook (will start season on DL with broken finger) 

The Rockies’ rotation struggled last season with the exception of Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez throws four plus pitches including a 96 MPH fastball, good slider, curveball and excellent changeup. His command can be an issue (3.74 BB/9), but his strikeout, ground ball and home run-rates all but make up for it. He should put up a 3.20 ERA with the strikeout rate around the familiar 8.50.

Jorge De La Rosa will slot in as the number two starter in the rotation. De La Rosa has proved to be a valuable starter for the Rockies over the last two seasons. His repertoire includes a 92-94 MPH fastball, a good slider, a “show me” curve and an excellent changeup. Like Jimenez, his command can be an issue. But he should strikeout close to one hitter per inning and have an ERA close to 4.20. 

Jhouyls Chacin impressed during his rookie campaign in 2010, becoming one of the more consistent starters on the team. Chacin averages 91.1 MPH on his fastball, but he also throws a great slider and curveball, while mixing in an average changeup. Like the rest of the starters mentioned, Chacin will walk four per nine innings. But should strikeout close to a hitter per inning and pitch to an ERA close to 3.80.

Jason Hammel will pitch behind Chacin, and I talk about the potential for a breakout season later in the preview. 

Esmil Rogers will start the season as the club’s number five starter with Aaron Cook on the DL with a broken finger. Rogers throws 93-96 MPH with a good slider, average curveball and changeup. He posted a high ERA last season in limited work, but his xFIP (3.71) says he pitched better than his ERA suggests.

Aaron Cook should be back sometime in May. Cook is a sinkerballer who will walk around three per nine innings and strikeout 4.5 per nine. He uses his 89.5 MPH sinker with an occasional slider and curveball. If Rogers pitches well in his spot, Cook may not comeback to the rotation. 

BULLPEN

RHP—Huston Street (Closer) 

RHP—Rafael Betancourt 

RHP—Matt Belisle 

LHP—Matt Reynolds 

RHP—Matt Lindstrom 

LHP—Franklin Morales  

RHP—Matt Daley or RHP—Felipe Paulino 

Huston Street will remain the closer for this deep Colorado bullpen. Street throws 91 MPH with a good slider and changeup that makes him equally tough on lefties. His great control is an asset, and he should strikeout eight to nine hitters over nine innings, with a mid 2.50 ERA.

Rafael Betancourt is one of the best right-handed setup men in baseball because of his excellent K/BB ratio (11.13 in 2010). That number won’t be that high in 2011, but his excellent control of his 92-94 MPH fastball and slider should have him in the 4-5 K/BB range. 

Matt Belisle had a career year for the Rockies last season, and it remains to be seen whether he can pitch at that level again. His ERA was at 2.93, and his xFIP confirmed that success with a 2.90 number. Belisle has great command of all his pitches. If he can record 7-8 strikeouts per nine innings, I think he can pitch at that same level again.

The hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom will do some setup work after struggling with the Astros last season in the closer role. Lindstrom has outstanding stuff—a fastball that averages 95.7 MPH, a good slider and decent splitter to be an effective reliever. However, he hasn’t been able to harness his stuff and he should strikeout more than his 7.27 K/9 rate. 

Matt Reynolds and Franklin Morales will be the left-handed relievers out of the bullpen. Reynolds pitched well in 20 games for the Rockies last year, striking out 8.50 every nine innings. He has posted similar numbers in the minors, and I think he will be a nice weapon for the Rockies.

Franklin Morales has the potential to be a valuable member of the Rockies’ bullpen, but he needs to harness command of his 93-96 MPH fastball. He has the curveball and change to succeed in the majors, but his command has kept him back for too long.

Matt Daley or Felipe Paulino will take the last spot in the bullpen. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP—John Maine

LHP—Eric Stults

RHP—Claudio Vargas

RHP—Sean White

LHP—Greg Smith

IF- Alfredo Amezaga (S)

1B- Jason Giambi (L)

1B- Mike Jacobs (L)

OF- Willy Taveras (R) 

BREAKOUT PLAYER—Jason Hammel 

Jason Hammel has put up two solids seasons over the last two years, averaging 3.75 WAR. Both years, Hammel’s ERA was in the mid four’s, but his xFIP indicated he was pitching at a 3.70 level. He has been the victim of a below average left-on-base percentage and a high BABIP, both of which inflated his ERA. 

Hammel averages 93 MPH on his fastball, and his repertoire includes a plus curveball, good slider and an average changeup. Along with his ground-ball rate, good control (2.39 BB/9), strikeout rate (7.14 K/9) and low home run total, Hammel should have a very good year and pitch to an ERA around 3.70. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH—C Willin Rosario (R)

Willin Rosario is the Rockies’ top catching prospect. He is an intriguing option if he plays well at AA and Chris Iannetta struggles this season.

Rosario has great power, especially for a catcher, and he is seen as a long term fit behind the plate in the majors. There are no concerns after he tore his ACL in August. He should be game ready by the time the season starts. Rosario needs to work on his plate discipline and strikeout rate, but he is definitely a top prospect who will get a look soon. 

PROJECTED FINISH—2rd in NL West

The Rockies have a good lineup, but the team can’t under perform the way the they did last season and expect to win the division. I don’t think the starting pitching is good enough to beat the Giants, but it is good enough to compete for the Wild Card. The bullpen should hold up nicely, but the real key is the overall performance of the lineup. 

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SEATTLE MARINERS

Last Year: 61-101, fourth in AL West  

Manager: Eric Wedge

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- Miguel Olivio (R) 

1B- Justin Smoak (S)

2B- Brendan Ryan (R) or Adam Kennedy (L)

3B- Chone Figgins (S) 

SS- Jack Wilson (R)

LF- Milton Bradley (S)

CF- Franklin Gutierrez (R)

RF- Ichiro Suzuki (L)

DH- Jack Cust (L)

The Mariners‘ offense ranked last in AVG, OBP, and SLG in 2010.

One of the major problems came from the DH position, and GM Jack Zduriencik signed Jack Cust to bring some power and OBP to the lineup. Cust’s power dropped in 2010, but his average did go up.

I expect his power and average to return to previous levels (25 home runs, .235/.370/.420).

Ichiro Suzuki remains the Mariners’ best offensive weapon, and one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. Ichiro will get his 200-plus hits with 6-10 home runs, but it is tough to predict whether he will have one of his monster years because of his reliance on balls put into play.

Franklin Gutierrez has shown some offensive production in years past, but his main contributions come with the glove. He will swipe 20 bags, add 15 home runs, and put up a predictable line of .260/.320/.400.

Milton Bradley remains an enigma at the plate despite his natural ability. His injuries and fragile mindset don’t keep him on the field that often, and I expect Michael Saunders to replace him in LF by the end of the year.

However, a solid year is not out of the question. 

The infield production remains an even larger question mark for this club. Justin Smoak, the main piece in the Cliff Lee deal, showed some real holes in his swing during his time in the majors in 2010.

I think his power and OBP will be fine this season, but it may take a year or two for his average to really improve. I see him hitting 20 home runs with a .240/.340/.410 line.

Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy don’t provide much offense at 2B, and Jack Wilson provides the same punch. I expect 12 to 15 home runs out of the three of them.

Chone Figgins had a rough first half at the plate in 2010. He was able to rebound to put up respectable numbers, and I think a switch to 3B might clear his head a bit. I see Figgins putting up a line of .280/.370/.350 and 40-plus stolen bases.

Miguel Olivo will hit approximately 15 home runs from the catcher position. However, Olivo does strike out in almost 30 percent of his ABs. 

The Mariners had the 10th best defense (UZR) in 2010. Safeco Field has an expansive outfield, and the Mariners have the players to cover it.

Ichiro is considered one of the best right fielders in baseball, and Franklin Gutierrez is one of the best in CF. Milton Bradley is an adequate defender in LF.

Justin Smoak anchors the infield, providing above-average defense at first. The Mariners are sure up the middle with Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy providing above-average defense at 2B and Jack Wilson at SS. Chone Figgins will move from 2B to his stronger defensive position at 3B.

At catcher, Miguel Olivo has one of the best arms behind the plate, but he struggles with his receiving. 

BENCH

OF- Michael Saunders (L) or Ryan Langerhans (L)

IF- Brendan Ryan (R) or Adam Kennedy (L)

1B/OF- Mike Carp (L) 

C- Adam Moore (R)

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Felix Hernandez 

LHP- Jason Vargas 

RHP- Doug Fister 

LHP- Erik Bedard

RHP- Michael Pineda  

Felix Hernandez, an injury-rattled former All-Star, two soft-tossers and a rookie make up the Mariners’ rotation.

Hernandez, the 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner, anchors the staff. He throws two fastballs that average 94.6 MPH, a change-up that acts like a splitter and two very good breaking balls.

He has the whole package, and the only question is whether the offense will score enough for him to have a winning record.

Jason Vargas is a soft-tossing lefty who uses a lot of change-ups to keep hitters off balance. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who benefits from pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Doug Fister is the right-handed version of Vargas, and is expected to put up similar numbers. Both should average around 5 K/9 and 2 BB/9 and have an ERA in the mid-4’s. Fister and Vargas would be fine at the back of the rotation, but they shouldn’t be counted on to anchor the middle of the staff. 

I don’t think anyone knows what to expect from Erik Bedard this season.

He missed all of 2010, and only made 15 starts in 2008 and 2009. Bedard has said he feels like his old self.

If he pitches like his old self, Seattle could get some very good prospects during the year if they decide to trade him. Bedard throws a low-90s fastball, but he can strike out a hitter per inning with his devastating curveball.

Michael Pineda will be the fifth starter for the club, and I detail his season later in the preview.

BULLPEN

RHP- David Aardsma (2010 Closer; uncertain when he will return from hip surgery)

RHP- Brandon League (Closer)

RHP- Chris Ray

RHP- Dan Cortes 

LHP- Aaron Laffey  

RHP- Josh Leuke 

RHP- Jamey Wright 

LHP- Luke French 

David Aardsma had hip surgery in the offseason, and it’s unclear when he will be ready to pitch for the big league club. Brandon League will take over the closer spot, and might hang onto it if he pitches well.

Aardsma was the talk of trade rumors in the offseason, so if he comes back strong, he will be a candidate to be dealt during the summer.

League throws a hard two-seamer at 95.6 MPH with a good slider and splitter. He should average 7 K/9 innings, and a mid-3’s ERA. Dan Cortes, who throws in the mid-90s, will get a shot to be the primary set-up man for League.

Aaron Laffey will be the primary lefty coming out of the pen. Laffey relies on his 87 MPH fastball and good slider to get lefties out, but he doesn’t have spectacular numbers against them.

Chris Ray was signed on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Ray still throws hard, but his 5 K/9 rate was very underwhelming.

Josh Lueke may get a shot to join the bullpen in his rookie season with the club.

Jamey Wright has a terrible career K/BB ratio, and will probably get mop-up work in the beginning of the season. Luke French will be the long reliever to start the year.

NOTABLE NON-ROSTER INVITEES

RHP- Chris Ray

RHP- Manny Delcarmen 

RHP- Jamey Wright

RHP- Denny Bautista 

RHP- Justin Miller 

LHP- Nate Robertson 

C- Josh Bard

IF- Adam Kennedy (L)

IF- Luis Rodriguez (S)

OF- Gabe Gross (L)

OF- Ryan Langerhans (L)

PROSPECTS TO WATCH

2B Dustin Ackley (L)

I don’t see anyone from this group having a breakout season, so I’ll mention two prospects who should have an impact.

Baseball America ranks Ackley as the best prospect in the Mariners organization. He isn’t great defensively at 2B, but many are impressed with his plate discipline. His power hasn’t come along yet, but the Mariners hope that will develop this year.

He should be in the majors by the end of the year.  

 Michael Pineda 

The 22-year-old Pineda is battling for a spot in the rotation right now, but it makes sense for him to start the season in AAA. Pineda is considered the Mariners’ top prospect, and he could use a little more seasoning in the minors.

His best pitch is a mid-90s sinking fastball, and he mixes it in with an improving slider and inconsistent changeup. The change makes him vulnerable to left-handed hitters, but I think he will impress in his starts to begin the season. 

PROJECTED FINISH – 4th in AL West 

Seattle isn’t going to contend this year, but 2011 will not be as terrible as 2010. The offense should be slightly improved, and the bullpen might have some bright spots.

GM Jack Zduriencik needs Erik Bedard to bounce back in order to get some more prospects and to help the rotation early on. While there is some upside to this club, the Mariners will probably finish with about 90 losses. 

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