Kuzul

October is always unpredictable. Several events happen every fall that completely defy what the statistics predict, proving that nothing is ever guaranteed and that the baseball playoffs can provide some heart-racing entertainment.

We’ve witnessed some great series and moments in the first round before: the Angels finally beating the Red Sox in 2009; road teams winning every game in the Texas-Tampa series in 2010; St. Louis shocking the Phillies in Philadelphia, and Nyjer Morgan’s walk off in Game 5 for the Brewers in Milwaukee.

This year, however, has been special.

So many improbable things have happened in the past week, it is almost impossible to believe. Here’s a list of these unbelievable moments which made this year’s group of division series the best in history.

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On the heels of an emotional, gutty come-from-behind Game 5 victory over the Washington Nationals, the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals find themselves back in the National League Championship Series.

Waiting for them are the 2010 World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants. On paper, this appears to be a pretty even matchup, with both teams filled with players from their respective title teams. The regular-season bore that out as the teams split their six games with three wins apiece. 

Ultimately though, I have pinpointed five keys to this series for St. Louis to repeat as National League champions and defend its title in the Fall Classic. Here they are, starting with No. 5.

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Both the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers needed five games to advance to the ALCS. This series will also likely go the distance, but New York’s pitching will eventually overwhelm Detroit and help the Yankees advance to the World Series.

It is no surprise to see these two teams here. While Baltimore and Oakland were nice surprises, they lacked the rosters and the experience to move on.

New York won the season series 6-4, but Detroit still has the bragging rights after eliminating the Yankees in last year’s playoffs.

The Bronx Bombers will not settle for losing two years in a row, and their pitching will ensure their success.

This will be a great series, but there are a few reasons why New York’s pitching will be the deciding factor. 

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This title is in question form because (a) I feel like titles asking how great something is look more intriguing than statements and (b) because I’ve been alive for two decades and have followed baseball for less than one, so I am not in a position to make such a bold statement.

There have been many divisional series in MLB history, so for anyone who isn’t a baseball historian to unflinchingly say, “This is the best LDS ever,” is dangerously approaching Skip Bayless territory, which is a land full of radioactive trees and three-eyed moose last time I checked.

All this being said, it’s really hard to imagine there’s been a divisional round of baseball better than this one.

First of all, all four series went to their fifth and final game. Now, it’s not like a five-game series with evenly matched baseball teams is too unlikely to end up going the distance, but for all four of these series to do so is historic (Literally. This is first time since this LDS format began in 1995 that all four series have gone to Game 5). A baseball fan couldn’t ask for much more, even if the actual games in the series weren’t that exciting.

But these teams decided to give you more than you asked for, baseball fan. Let’s start with the Giants vs. the Reds.

This was definitely the worst of the four series, although that’s kinda like saying George Harrison is the least famous Beatle. He’s still one of the most famous musicians of the 20th century, and he was the lead guitarist for the freaking Beatles! (Speaking of which, is Harrison actually the least famous Beatle? Ringo Starr was definitely more charismatic, has a more exciting name and sang Yellow Submarine, but Harrison was a much better musician with a better post-Beatles career. I might have to conduct a survey on this…)

Only two of the games in this series were close (Games 3 and 5), although Game 5 was decided in the fifth inning. The Reds made that game interesting, to say the least, turning a 6-0 deficit into a 6-4 game in the ninth inning with the potential winning run at the plate, but it wasn’t like last night’s Nats-Cards game that saw a 6-0 lead completely evaporate.

Game 3 was actually pretty boring even though it was close the entire game and went into extra innings. The Giants won on an error, for Brooks Conrad’s sake.

Still, you had The Tim Lincecum Relief Game (Game 4) and the towering Buster Posey grand slam in Game 5 that won the game/series. Oh, and the Giants went down 0-2 and ended up winning three straight games on the road. When the worst of the four divisional series involved a historic comeback, it’s safe to say that this was one of the best divisional playoff rounds ever.

The Bay Area’s other team also nearly pulled off the Giants’ crazy feat.

Going down 0-2 after two closely contested games in Detroit, the A’s got great pitching and defensive performances in Game 3 to keep them alive, then made an improbable comeback in the ninth inning of Game 4 to force a Game 5.

It felt like the A’s were destined to complete the series comeback and win Game 5, but Justin Verlander has always loved the scene in Cinderella when the clock strikes midnight and the carriage turns back into a pumpkin.

He dominated the A’s lineup, and the Tigers avoided a Reds-like collapse.

For a series where every game seemed like it could have swung either way, Verlander made sure that the Tigers weren’t leaving Oakland without a win.

The Cardinals did have two eight-run blowout wins in Games 2 and 3, but the other three games were fantastic.

The Nationals won Game 1 by a score of 3-2, scoring 2 runs in the eighth inning.

Game 4 was similar to Game 3 in the Giants-Reds series, but instead of a game-winning run on an error, Jayson Werth hit a walk-off home run. This home run should have been the series’ defining moment, but the Cards didn’t like that plot.

That Game 5, man. And you thought the Cardinals used up all their comeback magic last postseason.

St. Louis first decided it would be fun to dig themselves a 6-0 hole that they were almost able to climb out of by scoring five unanswered runs, but the Nats dropped a boulder on the Cardinals’ arm by scoring a run in the bottom of the eighth inning (making it 7-5) and getting two outs in the top of the ninth with only one Cardinal on base.

But instead of just accepting their fate and dying alone in the cave, the Cards said, “Screw it. Arms are overrated,” and decided to cut off this troublesome limb. They loaded the bases with two straight walks, and Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma—the heroes everyone saw coming—tied the game and gave St. Louis a 9-7 lead, respectively.

Jason Motte and his beard took the role of the cast for the Cardinals’ severed arm, closing the game out in the bottom of the ninth.

“Welcome to the club, Nats fans,” said the Rangers fans.

And then there’s the Yankees-Orioles series—the best of the four.

Game 1: 7-2, New York. Five ninth-inning runs by the Yanks.

Game 2: 3-2, Baltimore.

Game 3: 3-2, New York in 12 innings (aka, the Raul Ibanez pinch-hits for A-Rod and hits the game-tying and game-winning home runs).

Game 4: 2-1, Baltimore in 13 innings.

Game 5: 3-1, New York. Complete game by CC Sabathia.

You didn’t even need to watch this series to know how great it was, but if you watched it, boy, were you rewarded.

The Giants-Reds and Tigers-A’s were the two “worst” divisional series. Think about that for second. This might not have been the best overall LDS ever, but if there’s been a better one, somebody must send me the footage of each and every game from that round ASAP.

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Game 1 of the 2012 NLCS begins Sunday night in San Francisco. Here’s a look ahead at the starters and key matchups.

Starters: Lance Lynn (StL) vs. Madison Bumgarner (SF)   

Twenty-three-year-old left-hander Madison Bumgarner will go for San Francisco. Bumgarner finished the regular season 16-11 with a 3.37 ERA. His 8.25 K/9 is second best among Giants starters (Lincecum is No. 1). 

Bumgarner was responsible for the most lopsided game of the Division Series with Cincinnati. The Reds won 9-0. He earned the loss after allowing seven hits and a walk through four-and-one-third innings. 

Still, it would be overreacting to have major concerns about Bumgarner. He has good postseason experience, especially for someone his age. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA through the Giants’ 2010 World-Series-winning playoff run. 

The great thing about the MLB Playoffs is that, before we can get over the shell shock from an earlier series, it’s on to the next one. St. Louis will need to forget last night’s excitement immediately. 

They will probably go with a pitching committee on Sunday. 

Lance Lynn started 29 games for the Cardinals during the regular season, but made it to the seventh inning just six times. He will be their man Sunday night. 

Lynn is 1-1 thus far in the 2012 postseason, despite not making a start. He also went start-less in the 2011 playoffs, although he did make 10 appearances. His most memorable moment thus far has been allowing Jayson Werth’s walk-off homer in Game 4 of the NLDS.

Lynn is actually even more of a strikeout pitcher than Bumgarner is. He averaged 9.20 K/9 in the regular season. Lynn also led the NL in the less-than-favorable sabermetric statistic, cheap wins.

Key Matchups

1. San Francisco Base Runners vs. Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina was by far the best defensive catcher through the 2012 season. His defensive WAR of 2.6 is a full win more than the second-best catcher.

Molina caught runners stealing on 48 percent of their attempts. Only Cincinnati’s Ryan Hanigan was better. It comes as no surprise, then, that San Fran stole just one base (and attempted just two) in their series with the Reds.

Will the Giants play conservatively once again? They didn’t in the regular season. The Giants finished 10th in the MLB with 118 steals.

2. Carlos Beltran vs. The World

Miguel Cabrera may have won the AL Triple Crown, but Beltran is competing for the postseason one. He leads everyone who made it to the DS in batting average (.409), is second in home runs (two) and has four RBI (tied for seventh).

Beltran’s career postseason OPS is now a staggering 1.306. Do you know how many players in the history of baseball have a higher one? ZERO!

San Francisco would be wise to ensure a difficult matchup for Beltran in each of his at-bats beyond the sixth inning. If that means ending somebody’s night on the mound a few batters too early, so be it.

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If there is a game-changing moment in the Bronx during the ALCS, expect nothing less than to have Alex Rodriguez in the middle of it.  Good or bad.

Much like Marvel comic book character Wolverine, Yankees third baseman A-Rod just wants to fit in and be liked.

Is A-Rod a bit over dramatic at times and overexposed?  Sure.  However, he has earned his reputation and popularity for a reason, the guy is good at baseball.

Alex is arguably one of the best players to ever play on the baseball diamond.

The guy just wanted to be liked; by nearly everyone, and that is impossible.

He wasn’t well liked before the 2009 steroid admission, from a supposed drug use during the 2003 season with the Texas Rangers.  Once that word got out he was one of the “cheaters,” bad went to worse.

On top of all of his injuries, personal pain and playoff failures, Rodriguez battled back to the top.

He got as far as he could go in 2009, winning his first World Series title and having clutch moment after clutch moment that post season with New York.

That year must seem like a blur to Alex, because he didn’t do much before that in the playoffs and hasn’t done much after that.

Call that year his “climax” if you will, because his numbers seem to be deteriorating by the second.

Rodriguez has dealt with a lot of suffering and heartache throughout his Major League career, some you could say is his own fault, or maybe he is just guilty by association.

Heading into the 2012 postseason, Rodriguez was ready to put the past couple of seasons behind him and climb that mountain once again.

This postseason has the makings of being his worse.

If hitting .125 with nine strikeouts and no extra-base hits isn’t bad enough, Raul Ibanez came in to pinch hit for him in Game 3.

Ibanez not only pinch hit for Rodriguez, he hit the game-tying and game-winning homeruns for the Yankees that night.

A-Rod was pinch hit for again with Game 4 on the line, with Eric Chavez lining out to end the game.

To make matters worse, in Game 5, he couldn’t stay out of the headlines, after being benched by Yankees manager Joe Girardi.

The Yankees managed to secure the Game 5 victory over the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS to move onto the ALCS against the Detroit Tigers.

After an extra day of rest and some motivation to go along with it, Rodriguez should return to the Yankees lineup raring to go on Saturday night in the Bronx.

Will he try to do too much at the plate to please the Yankees faithful, or will he relax and let his talent take over at the dish?

If he can calm his nerves and channel his energy, we could be seeing the rebirth of the 2009 Alex Rodriguez and a storybook playoff comeback performance.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on Twitter @nyyrobinson.

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The ALCS begins this Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, TBS) as the New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in a rematch of their first-round playoff series of a year ago.  This matchup is chalk full of storylines, none bigger than the status of Alex Rodriguez.  Will he find himself riding the bench for the second straight game?

New York doesn’t have much time to reflect on their Game 5 win in the Division Series against the Baltimore Orioles, and for many, that’s probably a good thing. 

Numerous Yankee stars struggled throughout the series besides Rodriguez.  They’ll look to turn that around tonight and in Game 2 on Sunday afternoon (4 p.m. ET, TBS) before the series shifts to Detroit for Games 3-5.

Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson and Rodriguez all hit .158 or lower against the O’s.  As a result, Eric Chavez got the start in place of A-Rod at third base in the deciding game.

Fortunately for the Yanks, Tigers ace Justin Verlander pitched in Detroit’s Game 5 ALDS win against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday.  Detroit will have Doug Fister on the mound for tonight’s opener.

So what does Yankee skipper Joe Girardi do with Rodriguez? 

His decision would be more difficult if Chavez had taken advantage of the opportunity.  Instead, the veteran went 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in the Division Series.

Girardi has tried to keep Rodriguez away from right-handers lately, and all four Tigers starting pitchers are righties.  According to Cliff Corcoran of SI.com, A-Rod’s 1-for-9 with two walks and three strikeouts in his career facing Fister.

Forget for a minute your personal opinions on Rodriguez.  There’s no denying he’s a polarizing figure, especially after his steroid issues came to light.  The only thing to consider is who gives the Yankees a better shot at winning? 

There’s an old saying in sports:  “You go with the guys that got you there.”

Sure, Rodriguez didn’t have great numbers during the regular season (.272, 18 HR, 57 RBI).  He also played in only 122 games. 

But when you compare their career postseason numbers, everything favors A-Rod being in the starting lineup.  Rodriguez has a career playoff average of .268 in 72 games, while Chavez is hitting a paltry .205 in 31 games.

How quickly Yankees fans seem to forget Alex’s performance in the 2009 playoffs, the last time New York won the World Series.  He hit .378 with six HR and 18 RBI in 15 games.  However, it is worth pointing out that that was three years ago and Rodriguez is now 37. 

Yet, it’s also worth pointing out that Granderson only hit .232 during the regular season and followed that up with a .158 clip against Baltimore.  Is anyone calling for him to be benched? 

If Girardi plays Rodriguez, he struggles, and the Yankees lose the series, critics will be all over him.  But if he plays Chavez and the same exact scenario plays out, the criticism will be much worse.

The Yankees are better off letting one of the game’s most prolific hitters sink his own ship than they are if they don’t let him “on the ship” to begin with. 

Baseball fans everywhere eagerly await your decision, Joe. 

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The schedule has done the New York Yankees no favors in the 2012 postseason.  

With the new Wild Card format, the Yankees have had to play games on five consecutive days, while the Detroit Tigers enjoyed a day off on Friday before the ALCS Game 1.  Look for scheduling to play a significant role in the outcome of the Championship Series.

Both divisional series went five games and required stellar pitching performances from each team’s ace.  The Tigers’ Justin Verlander joined Sandy Koufax in becoming one of only two pitchers ever to throw a shutout and register double-digit strikeouts in a deciding playoff game.  

For the Yankees, CC Sabathia pitched a stellar Game 5 to finally silence the Orioles, throwing a complete game, striking out nine and allowing only a single run on four hits.

Unfortunately for New York, Sabathia’s Friday start means he may only be available to pitch in the ALCS once.  If the series goes seven games and Sabathia ends up pitching Game 7, that would make for back-to-back starts on short rest.  

Verlander won’t be available until Game 3, but if the series were to go seven games, he’d be able to pitch both Game 3 and Game 7 on normal rest.  Having the game’s best pitcher—who has pitched beautifully in these playoffs—waiting in the wings is a huge weapon for the Tigers.  

Game 1 looks to favor the Tigers as well, with Doug Fister on the mound facing Andy Pettitte.  

Pettitte has looked strong since returning to the Yanks, but Fister is the pitcher who sent New York packing in Game 5 of the ALDS last year.  He also spun a solid start against the Yankees back in August, pitching 6.1 innings and allowing just two runs.  

If the Tigers win Game 1, the road looks tough for the AL East champs.  They’ll face Anibal Sanchez in Game 2, who has looked like a different pitcher since the Yanks roughed him up in August.  New York will counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who has pitched well, but will be another Yankee pitching on short rest.

The Yanks will need to come out of the first two games with at least a split, because after Game 2, they head out on the road against Detroit’s aces.  

The struggling Yankee bats will face Verlander in Game 3.   The Tigers ace doesn’t require much introduction.  Verlander struck out 11 in eight innings in a win over the Yankees in last year’s ALDS Game 3, and fanned 14 hitters in eight shutout innings against New York in August. 

New York could bring Sabathia back on short rest to face Verlander in Game 3, but they’d probably be best served to chalk that game up to a probable loss and bring the big lefty out to face Max Scherzer in Game 4.  

Essentially, given the series format and the schedule, the Yankees will need to win three of the first four games to put themselves in a position to avoid facing a rested Verlander in Game 7.  If we chalk Game 3 up as a Tigers win, than New York will need to sweep the other three games.  

If they split the first four, New York will have two of the remaining three games at home, but one of those home games will be a fully-rested Verlander against Sabathia on short rest.

For the Yankees to get a shot at their 28th World Series title, they’ll need some savvy managing from skipper Joe Girardi.  They’ll also probably require some ace-level contributions from pitchers not named CC Sabathia, who put the team on his back in Game 5 against the Orioles.

Barring that, the New York better hope their offense wakes up, because their abysmal run production in the ALDS won’t cut it against Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Alex Avila and the Tigers’ thumpers.

Whatever the result, this figures to be a great series featuring some fascinating pitching matchups.  If the Yankees can overcome the scheduling issues to take the ALCS, they’ll be well on their way to bringing another World Series title back to New York.

If not, Justin Verlander might finally bring the Tigers their first ring in almost thirty years.

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The MLB postseason has been complete and utter bananas so far. After four Game 5s, several walk-off wins and countless late-inning comebacks, unpredictability is now the norm.

The league championships, however, are set for a little more predictability.

While anything can happen in October, all logical signs point to a Giants-Tigers World Series. Here’s why.

Tigers over Yankees

Deciding Factor No. 1: Extra Day Off for Tigers

From a statistical and empirical standpoint, the ALCS is nearly deadlocked.

Both teams boast solidified aces, good rotation depth, comparable bullpens and ample offensive firepower. In a seven-game series, this one’s basically a toss-up.

One factor that will elevate the Tigers, however, is an extra day of rest. One day may sound rather insignificant, but it’s actually game-changing in this series.

CC Sabathia, who matched a season high with 122 pitches in Game 5 of the ALDS, will not pitch again until Game 4 according to Matthew Puliot of NBC Sports.

Meanwhile, Justin Verlander will likely pitch Game 3 at home. Verlander has been basically unhittable, so the Tigers are in prime position to take an early series lead.   

Additionally, this extra day off puts the Tigers in a better position to win Game 7. Verlander will pitch on normal rest while Sabathia, if Girardi decides to start him, will pitch on three days’ rest.  

Deciding Factor No. 2: Yankee Drama

After benching Alex Rodriguez in Game 5 of the ALDS, manager Joe Girardi has opened Pandora’s box.

While Girardi was simply trying to put the best possible team on the field, the media is pouncing on the opportunity to create a dramatic October storyline.

Such postseason drama is always detrimental to a championship effort. All eyes should be focused on winning and not A-Rod’s fall from grace as a player, his lack of “clutch” or a potential relationship issue with his manager.

It’s still unknown which games A-Rod will start, if at all. Regardless, this is an extra distraction that the Yankees don’t need right now.

It could cost them their focus and, in turn, the series. Stay tuned.

Giants over Cardinals

Deciding Factor: Home Field

With nearly identical offensive and pitching talent, the deciding factor in this series is going to be home-field advantage.  

The Giants are absolutely brilliant at home. They pitch better and put more runs on the board, yielding a 48-33 record on the season. 

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are a notoriously bad road team. They went a miserable 38-43, which is among the worst out of all playoff teams.

Furthermore, the Giants have five start-worthy options in their pitching arsenal, the likely NL MVP in Buster Posey and an extra day of rest under their belt. 

This matchup is close enough to assume a six- or seven-game series is in the works, in which case the Giants’ home field advantage will push them into the World Series.

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How do you think it felt to be Stephen Strasburg, sitting in Nationals Park last night, knowing he could do nothing to help?

To see a team one strike away (twice) from advancing to the NLCS denied by a St. Louis Cardinals team that refuses to die?

To watch a starting pitching staff that was one of baseball’s best all season implode in the playoffs? Sure, Ross Detwiler, who took Strasburg‘s spot in the rotation, did his job in Game 4, throwing six solid innings and only allowing three hits and one earned run.

That performance is all the more impressive given that it was an elimination game and the whispers of Strasburg‘s name were hanging all over the media, the fans and likely the team itself.

But other than Detwiler, simply put, the rest of the Nationals’ rotation wasn’t ready for primetime. Even Gio Gonzalez, who left with a lead last night, produced a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in his two starts. 

Jordan Zimmerman was shellacked in three innings in his lone start, giving up five earned runs and seven hits. That was good for an inflated 11.25 ERA in the series.

Edwin Jackson was likewise unimpressive, lasting only five innings in his start and surrendering four earned runs. In relief last night, he walked two and gave up a crucial run in the seventh inning during the Cardinals’ comeback. His ERA for the series was a less than sterling 7.20.

Simply put, the Nationals’ starting pitching was not up to snuff in this series. You can argue all you want that Strasburg was not the ace of the staff, but now that the team has been eliminated, you have to wonder if things would’ve been different had he been available, even in a relief role.

The decision to sit Strasburg after some sort of arbitrary team-devised innings limit was controversial from the start. General manager Mike Rizzo defended the decision, and in the process, angered many opposing GM’s with his logic.

“We’ll be back and doing this a couple more times,” Rizzo said in defense of the decision. (via USA Today)

To many other teams, some of which have spent years without a winning season, much less a playoff appearance, this comes off as the height of hubris. After all, the Nationals franchise has been known in the past for many things, winning not being one of them.

To make an assumption like Rizzo has—and one which he continues to defend today—is a dangerous business in baseball. Success is fleeting, teams rise and fall faster than the stock market, and a playoff appearance one year is not a guarantee of anything beyond that one season.

Sports history is riddled with teams that were built for the long-haul and had one great season, never to be heard from again. 

Baseball is a finicky game. Players get hurt, production from key guys drops, other teams improve, a bloop single this year is a pop fly next year, you lose a few one-run games that you won the year before, and suddenly you go from 98 wins and a division title to 88 wins and find yourself on the outside looking in.

In all sports, general managers need to try and strike a delicate balance between going all-in for a championship, and building for the future. Rizzo says his team is positioned well going forward and will make more, and presumably better, playoff runs in the future. 

But that loses sight of the fact that the 2012 Nationals were not a team that surprised a lot of people by becoming overnight contenders. They weren’t a Cinderella story like the Oakland Athletics, who came out of absolutely nowhere to contend and stunningly win their division.

The Oakland A’s get credit for being there. The Washington Nationals won 98 regular season baseball games this year. Between that and their playoff series with the Cardinals, they walked off the field 100 times in victory this year. This wasn’t a team lucky to be there. 

This was a team that legitimately could take the field and have a real chance to win the World Series in 2012. 

The fact that Rizzo can stand up there today given this reality, and the reality that his team should be making NLCS plans today instead of packing their stuff, is simply mind-blowing.

Rizzo today told Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post:

We had a plan in mind. It was something we had from the beginning. I stand by my decision. We’ll take the criticism as it comes. We have to do what’s best for the Washington Nationals, and we think we did.

What is best for the Washington Nationals organization would be playing tomorrow night against the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS. It’s not filling a fanbase up with vague promises of continued postseason glory, at the expense of sacrificing a real, tangible chance at this year’s World Series.

Do we know for a fact that Stephen Strasburg would’ve made the difference in the series had he pitched? Of course not. But we do know that you want to win and lose games with your best possible team on the field. And Mike Rizzo robbed his fans of that chance.

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