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Heading into the 2013 MLB season, the New York Mets will be an intriguing team to follow. With good health and a few lucky breaks, they could be competitive throughout the summer.

Overall, this club wasn’t impressive in 2012. New York finished fourth in the NL East standings (again) and drew the lowest total attendance since opening Citi Field.

There’s pressure on “lame-duck” manager Terry Collins to get better results this coming season. Continue reading for an in-depth look at the personnel he’ll be working with.

2012 Record: 74-88.

Offseason Arrivals

Trade acquisitions: OF Wuilmer Becerra, OF Collin Cowgill, C John Buck, C Travis d’Arnaud, IF Brandon Hicks.

Major league signings: RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Shaun Marcum.

Minor league signings: RHP Scott Atchison, IF/OF Brian Bixler, 1B/OF Andrew Brown, RHP Greg Burke, OF Marlon Byrd, LHP Pedro Feliciano, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, OF Jamie Hoffmann, LHP Aaron Laffey, OF Corey Patterson, C Landon Powell, INF Omar Quintanilla, LHP Scott Rice, RHP Carlos Torres, OF Mike Wilson. 

Waiver Claims: C Anthony Recker.

Offseason Departures

Trade losses: LHP Kyle Lobstein (Rule 5 draft selection), INF Jefry Marte, C Mike Nickeas, C Josh Thole.

Free-agent losses: RHP Manny Acosta, INF Ronny Cedeno, RHP R.A. Dickey, OF Scott Hairston, RHP Mike Pelfrey, RHP Ramon Ramirez, RHP Jon Rauch, C Kelly Shoppach, OF Andres Torres.

Projected Rotation (with 2012 stats)

1. LHP Johan Santana (6-9, 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117.0 IP)
2. LHP Jon Niese (13-9, 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 190.1 IP)
3. RHP Shaun Marcum (7-4, 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 124.0 IP)
4. RHP Matt Harvey (3-5, 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 59.1 IP)
5. RHP Dillon Gee (6-7, 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 109.2 IP)

Projected Lineup (with 2012 stats)

1. SS Ruben Tejada (.289/.333/.351 in 501 PA)
2. 2B Daniel Murphy (.291/.332/.403 in 612 PA)
3. 3B David Wright (.306/.391/.492 in 670 PA)
4. 1B Ike Davis (.227/.308/.462 in 584 PA)
5. LF Lucas Duda (.239/.329/.389 in 459 PA)
6. RF Mike Baxter (.263/.365/.413 in 211 PA)
7. C John Buck (.192/.297/.347 in 398 PA)
8. CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.252/.315/.376 in 314 PA)
9. Pitchers spot

Bullpen Candidates (with 2012 stats)

RHP Bobby Parnell (2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7 SV in 68.2 IP)

RHP Frank Francisco (5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 23 SV in 41.2 IP)

RHP Brandon Lyon (3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 61.0 IP)

RHP Scott Atchison (1.58 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 51.1 IP)

LHP Scott Edgin (4.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 25.2 IP)

RHP LaTroy Hawkins (3.64 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 42.0 IP)

RHP Jeremy Hefner (5.09 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 93.2 IP)

RHP Greg Burke (did not play in majors)

LHP Pedro Feliciano (did not play in majors)

Starting Pitching Analysis

Knuckleballer Dickey is gone after three outstanding seasons in Queens.

Marcum will replace him after settling for a $4 million deal in free agency.

The right-hander was in line for a much bigger payday (think Jeremy Guthrie money) before missing a two-month chunk of the 2012 season with elbow tightness. He also missed the entire 2009 campaign following Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old can trigger performance bonuses based on innings pitched and days on the active roster, and potentially double his salary to $8 million.

When healthy, Marcum throws a high percentage of first-pitch strikes. He induces tons of fly balls, but that could work to his advantage at spacious Citi Field.

Collins tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that he expects Santana to get the Opening Day assignment on April 1.

The former Cy Young Award winner tossed an 134-pitch gem last June, which was the first no-hitter in Mets history. Through that evening (his 11th start of the season), Santana’s 2.38 ERA was among the best in the National League.

However, the happiness didn’t last. He averaged fewer than five innings per outing from that point forward, landing on the disabled list with ankle and lower back injuries. As you can see above, the final stats were disappointing.

Santana earns $25.5 million in the final guaranteed year of his contract. The Mets will almost certainly buy out his 2014 option. Keep in mind, though, that it automatically vests at $25 million if he totals 215 innings during the regular season and pitches through September.

The rest of the rotation is homegrown.

Niese, the most experienced member of the trio, broke out in the first year of his $25.5 million contract extension. The Ohio native performed surprisingly well against right-handed batters and improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio for the fourth straight season.

Entering his age-27 campaign, Gee could be a bit rusty. He underwent surgery to address a blood clot in his shoulder and didn’t pitch after the All-Star break.

Harvey also has a very high ceiling. Per FanGraphs, his average fastball was 94.7 mph in limited MLB action. He even helped his own cause with extra-base hits and a .333/.333/.444 batting line.

Coming off a season where he threw 169.1 professional innings, the former first-round draft pick is not expected to be on an innings limit.

So what if one of these starters suffers a significant injury? Who’s next in the pecking order?

Zack Wheeler, 22, excelled in the minors last summer. After a few more months of development at Triple-A, we should be ready to debut. Dominican right-hander Jenrry Mejia might get an opportunity…if he ever reports to camp. Major League Baseball is currently investigating his age and identity, delaying him from obtaining a visa (h/t Anthony DiComo, MLB.com).

Bullpen Analysis

The Mets disbanded their dysfunctional group of relievers. Twenty-two men pitched out of the bullpen in 2012, combining for the second-worst earned run average in the majors.

Francisco initially looked awful in the closer’s role, but found his groove in mid-May. The next month, he went down with an oblique injury. He struggled upon returning in August and took the mound for the final time on Sept. 16.

Last year’s version of Francisco should not be trusted in high-leverage situation. Then again, if he reverts to 2007-2011 form (3.76 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9), he’ll be worth the $6.5 million salary.

The 33-year-old underwent elbow surgery during the winter and still hasn’t been cleared for baseball activities. If he is unavailable, Parnell will get the ninth-inning job, according to Adam Rubin.

Once upon the time, New York envisioned him as a rotation member. Though that never panned out, Parnell possesses the demeanor and overpowering repertoire to hold slim leads. It’s also rare to find a pitcher with such even platoon splits.

Lyon will join them at the back end of the bullpen. Like Marcum, his incentive-laden major league contract increases in value when he reaches durability and workload milestones.

Rubin reports that Terry Collins will defer to veterans in the spring-training competition for relief spots. That means Atchison, Feliciano and Hawkins have an edge.

The most interesting bullpen storyline involves Burke, a 30-year-old submarine-style option. He decimated minor leaguers in 2012 as a member of the Baltimore Orioles organization (1.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 64.2 IP.) Former Mets coach/pitching genius Rick Peterson supervised his conversion from “normal” mechanics, so the recent success is hardly surprising.

Here’s more about the right-hander (via ESPNNewYork.com):

Burke is unconventional even by submarine standards. Often, righty sidearm/submarine relievers will overwhelm righty batters with a sweeping motion away from the hitter from the awkward angle. 

Burke actually has two types of fastballs from that angle — a two-seamer that dives and a four-seamer that bores in on the righty batter rather than veers away.”

 

Lineup Analysis

New York lacked lineup depth this past season and scored barely four runs per contest. Despite such mediocre production, the front office has not made any obvious upgrades.

Rather, much of the Mets success this summer will hinge on bounce-back years from a pair of left-handed sluggers.

Davis started off miserably in 2012, possibly due to a lingering case of Valley Fever. Whatever the actual explanation, his .170/.235/.291 batting line through 50 games made the club seriously consider removing him from the lineup. Davis was New York’s leading power source beginning in mid-June and finished with 32 home runs, but an inability to contribute against southpaws still limits him from blossoming into an All-Star. The Mets also value his smooth fielding at first base.

The 25-year-old was rumored to be on the trading block in October, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Ultimately, general manager Sandy Alderson expressed a belief that “the team needs to strengthen, not weaken, its supply of power hitters.”

Similarly, Duda regressed in his third MLB season. He doesn’t share Davis’ defensive value, so the Mets actually demoted him to Triple-A when a midsummer slump went on for too long.

Even when the 2012 season veered off the tracks, fans stayed tuned to watch Wright at the plate. The third baseman enjoyed one of his finest years and led the Mets in most offensive categories. Moreover, he should have received the NL Gold Glove.

Such all-around brilliance gave his agent leverage heading into contract extension negotiations. At the Winter Meetings in December, his eight-year, $138 million deal became official. It is the largest guarantee in Mets history.

Aside from Wright, this team is without accomplished base-stealers. Even up-the-middle players like Murphy, Nieuwenhuis and Tejada have never swiped 20 bags in any professional season. That’s why center fielder Michael Bourn seemed like a great fit.

Fortunately, utility man Jordany Valdespin provides speed off the bench.

Prospects to Watch

Both d’Arnaud (No. 6) and Wheeler (No. 8) rank among baseball’s Top 10 prospects, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.

N.Y. acquired the former from the Toronto Blue Jays as part of the Dickey trade. The catcher was showered with praise during the first days of spring training.

Paul DePodesta (VP for player development) highlighted the positives to Andrew Keh of The New York Times:

“We really believe he can be an above-average defender and an above-average offensive player at the same time, while playing a position where that sort of player can be really, really hard to find. He’s always been a highly touted guy, and there’s no doubt that his abilities for his age exceed his peer group.”

Projected big-league starter Buck is entering the final year of his contract. If he posts another .192/.297/.347 batting line through Memorial Day, we might see d’Arnaud debut.

Also keep your eyes peeled for Wilmer Flores, a 21-year-old Venezuelan native. He will “just play wherever” the Mets need him after originally signing as a shortstop (via Adam Rubin).

Replicating his Double-A batting line of .311/.361/.494 at the next level while working on his versatility will earn him a call-up by September (if not sooner).

Why Mets Might Thrive

Starting pitching allowed the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies and 2012 Washington Nationals to run away with NL East titles.

New York has a chance (albeit a very slim one) to do the same.

But Santana must avoid DL stints and contribute length to keep the relievers fresh. Same goes for Marcum.

Even if the heart of the lineup meets expectations with, say, 75 home runs and 250 runs batted in, there simply isn’t enough surrounding talent. For the Mets to reach 90 wins, they’ll need instant production from d’Arnaud and assistance from an established outfielder (possibly Alfonso Soriano or Josh Willingham).

Why Mets Might Fail

Defense “wasn’t exactly a positive last year,” explains Dan Haefeli of Rising Apple. All projections suggest that the team will struggle in that facet once again.

If Wright gets hurt early in the season before Flores has finished developing, the Mets will feel the effects, especially in the field.

The bullpen still looks like a weakness. Collins could wind up exposing it if, in desperation to stay employed, he starts “over-managing.” Skippers on the hot seat have a tendency to make constant changes and player substitutions to nip losing streaks in the bud…and it often backfires.

2013 Prediction: 80-82 (fourth in NL East)

That’s right, a fifth straight losing season, but the highest win total for the New York Mets since 2008.

Based on recent history, we have to doubt that both graybeards in the rotation can pitch full seasons. Though Wheeler might succeed as an emergency starter, Mejia nor anybody else would adequately replace a second injured arm.

In the near future, owner Fred Wilpon expects to raise payroll back up to pre-Ponzi-scheme levels, reports Marc Carig of Newsday. He’ll agree to sign another power bat or take on a hefty contract via trade.

But this spending probably isn’t going to happen prior to the 2013 trade deadline.

Be patient, Mets fans. The club will soon return to relevance.

Just not this summer.

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Even though spring training is only a few days old, there are numerous highly regarded prospects that have already generated a favorable buzz. Granted, it has come in the form of a batting practice session or light bullpen—but hey, it counts.

The big story this week came out of the Rays’ camp, where the team’s new top prospect, outfielder Wil Myers, apparently put on one helluva show during batting practice on Thursday.

Here’s a look at some other early returns on prospects participating in big league spring training.

Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

It certainly didn’t take long for No. 4 prospect Wil Myers to make a strong impression with his new organization, the Tampa Bay Rays.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Chastain, the 22-year-old outfielder, who’s fresh off a minor league campaign in which he launched 37 home runs across two levels, put on quite the show during batting practice on Thursday.

The collective word from everyone in attendance paints a clear picture of Myers’ impressive BP session:

“I didn‘t get to see him [hit]; I was over there on the other field, but when he hit the ball, I thought it was thunder,” smiled Maddon, bringing the familiar twinkle to his eye.

*snip*

“He was hitting the ball like a grown man,” said Sean Rodriguez, who shagged balls during Myers’ session.

*snip*

“It’s a different sound,” (Derek) Shelton said. “You see that when you see the bat speed or the torque he creates. It’s loud. You don’t hear many guys that can create that sound.”

“The thing that’s the most impressive is the bat speed,” Shelton said. “The way the ball comes off his bat. You can see it not only when he’s hitting on the field, but when he’s hitting off a tee. You don’t see very many people who generate that kind of bat speed. First day, yeah, it’s exciting to see.”

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

While it’s doubtful that No. 6 prospect Gerrit Cole will break camp as a member of the Pirates’ big league starting rotation, the organization is intent on giving him plenty of looks this spring.

With a three-pitch arsenal of above-average to plus offerings—his fastball is technically a plus-plus pitch given his ability to touch triple digits—the 6’4” right-hander has all the makings of a future ace. So, it shouldn’t come as a complete surprise that the organization has placed Cole in a group with starters A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez and James McDonald.

Here’s what manager Clint Hurdle had to say about the situation (via MLB.com)

“Yes, we put a lot of thought into how we group guys. We don’t just pick names out of a hat and put them together,” manager Clint Hurdle said. “We look at guys we may want to match up, so they can watch some other people, see how they go about things, to help with that educational process. That’s something we definitely keep in mind with some of our prospects.”

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Selected with the fourth-overall pick in the 2012 draft, Gausman enters the 2013 season, his first full season as a professional, ranked as the game’s No. 47 prospect.

Backed by a fastball in the mid-90s and a low-to-mid-80s changeup, Gausman has the potential to be one of the first pitchers from the 2012 draft class to reach the major leagues. Likely to open the year with the Orioles’ High-A or Double-A affiliate, the right-hander could make a strong case for a late-season call-up with an impressive first half.

Participating in big league camp, it seems as though Gausman has already made a favorable impression on the coaching staff after throwing his first spring bullpen on Thursday.

From manager Buck Showalter (via MLB.com):

Gausman‘s got a pretty good look. I think physically he’s going to be fine. I like where he is physically. Look at what great shape he’s in. To the eye, he may look a little slight compared to a 28-year-old established guy. It’s a lot of new stuff for him. I’m more inclined to kind of leave him alone. He’s had a lot of success doing it the way he’s doing it. I don’t see a whole lot there to change.

 

Carter Capps, RHP, Seattle Mariners

A third-round draft pick in 2011, Capps raced through the Mariners’ system last year, appearing in only 48 minor league games before receiving a call-up to the majors. Upon arrival, the 6’5” right-hander showcased one of the strongest arms in the game, highlighted by a fastball that averaged 99 mph—the second-highest velocity among all big league relievers.

With the incumbent Tom Wilhelmsen expected to close once again in 2013, Capps will be forced to pitch his way into the role. The good news is that he has already made a strong impression in big league camp with his overpowering, plus-plus heater.

Mariners’ manager Eric Wedge had this to say about the hard-throwing right-hander (via MLB.com):

“He got Shoppach’s attention early on, I’ll tell you,” Wedge said with a smile. “But that’s who he is. He’s a big, strong kid who throws hard. You look at effort. As long as you don’t see guys trying to do too much, that’s where we have to pay attention. We’ve got a lot of eyes on these young pitchers out there, and we have the conversations you have to have with these guys and make sure they stay where they need to stay.”

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Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick and Chris Stratton—the San Francisco Giants’ top three prospects according to Marc Hulet of FanGraphs—won’t be in big league camp this spring. None of those three pitching prospects have pitched above A-ball yet, so Giants fans will have to remain patient on that front.

However, just about everyone else in the organization’s top 15 prospects will be at spring training with the Giants. The most exciting prospects to look out for this spring are outfielder Gary Brown, infielder Joe Panik, reliever Heath Hembree and starting pitcher Chris Heston. Brown and Panik need at least another year of minor league experience, but Hembree and Heston are just about ready for the show.

Let’s take a look at what each of these prospects brings to the table.

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For the second time in three years, the San Francisco Giants will enter spring training with the feeling of being World Series champions. 

However, there are still some questions that need to be answered and some concerns about the defending champions.

Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence were among the players who struggled last year, and while they both stepped up in the playoffs to help the Giants win the World Series, both have a lot to prove in 2013. While the Giants didn’t make any major offseason moves, they gave out a lot of minor-league deals.

What does that mean? Every player who received one of those miniature contracts has a lot to prove in spring training.

Here are four battles within the team to watch for in 2013.

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For a number of years, the New York Mets have had the distinction of having one of the worst farm systems in Baseball. Between poor drafts and unwisely trading away prospects for washed-up Major Leaguers, the Mets have not had the luxury of tapping into homegrown talent.

Homegrown talent has been a source of good fortune that has benefited teams recently such as the Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. These teams all showcased deep farm systems and were eventually able to field teams that mainly comprised of homegrown talent.

But the Mets are improving tremendously in that area. In fact, during a game last season, the Mets had a starting lineup consisting of all homegrown players for the first time in 41 years—a game in which they won, 3-2. Plus, ESPN’s Keith Law ranked the Mets’ system as the 14th best in the game, which is the highest rank of any NL East division teams. Of course, this is all due in-part to having decent draft slots, thanks to finishing with a sub-.500 record each of the past four seasons.

Heading into 2013, the Mets have the deepest farm system they have had in quite some time. And while some of the top prospects are not necessarily homegrown, CitiField will be the first place these youngsters call “home” in their big league career.

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After a busy offseason for the Oakland A’s, they will fight to retain their standing on top of the American League West.

During said offseason, the A’s have moved around a lot of infielders through addition and subtraction.

Gone are the days of Cliff Pennington at shortstop or second base, after he was traded to Arizona. Stephen Drew is gone as well after being the A’s shortstop down the stretch.  

Another trade split apart the solid first base platoon of Brandon Moss and Chris Carter with Carter being sent to Houston.

Brandon Inge also will not be back in Oakland this year.

With all the departing infielders, who will take their spots rather that be an everyday job or part-time platoon job?

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Baseball season is finally back, and over the next two weeks, players will gather from across the country and begin the long journey with dreams of postseason glory.

While Spring Training may seem like a random hodge podge of exhibition games between players who will likely not see the major leagues, it is actually a carefully scripted preparation for the toils of a 162-game season.

As managers attempt to gauge their rosters, assessing young talent while allowing their veterans to adequately warm up, the next few slides will highlight dates every baseball fan should have marked on their calendars.

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Hopes are high for young St. Louis Cardinals going into spring training, but how many of them will make the big step to the major league team?

Bubble players throughout MLB have prepped all winter in an effort to be ready to put on a good showing when they arrive at spring training.

A bubble player is a player who is on the verge of either making the team or getting cut. They can be young or old, but most often people think of young players.

While everyone on this list is young, there is at least one on the list whose job could be in jeopardy.

Following are six players who have a good shot at making the squad out of spring training.

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For a team that was struggling for pitching depth about a week ago, the Seattle Mariners seem to be intent on having as many options as possible heading into the 2013 season.

Geoff Baker has reported that the Mariners have come to a minor league agreement with 33-year old pitcher Jon Garland. This report was broken by Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider as well.

Garland has not pitched since 2011, when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that season, Garland finished 1-5 with a 4.33 ERA in 54.0 IP before being shut down with shoulder surgery. Garland is better known for his eight-year stretch with the Chicago White Sox, with his best season coming in 2005 when he finished 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.

Garland isn’t the only project the Mariners have picked up this offseason, as they signed former Detroit Tiger Jeremy Bonderman to a minor league deal back in December. Much like Garland, Bonderman did not pitch in the majors last season and hasn’t since 2010, when he finished the season 8-10 with a 5.53 ERA.

The question at this point for the Mariners is whether or not either pitcher has enough left in the tank to earn a spot in the rotation in 2013 if the young talent isn’t ready. Many fans will remember that the Mariners made a similar signing last season when they signed Kevin Millwood, who proceeded to throw 161.0 innings for the Mariners with a respectable 4.25 ERA. In fact, Millwood was the starting pitcher when the Mariners used six pitchers to no-hit the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 8 of last season.

When comparing the track records of Jeremy Bonderman and Jon Garland, one has to think that Garland has the upper hand when it comes to potentially earning a spot in the rotation. Over his career, Garland only posted one season with a negative WAR, and that was his rookie season in 2000 when he only started 13 games.

In fact, in 2010 Garland posted a 1.1 WAR and threw 200.0 innings for the San Diego Padres while posting a 3.47 ERA, the third lowest ERA of his career. On the other hand, Bonderman hasn’t posted a positive WAR since 2008 and has never had a season in which his ERA was below 4.00.

At this point, it may not be positive for the Mariners start the 2013 season with either Garland or Bonderman in the rotation. In order for that to happen, either Blake Beavan or Erasmo Ramirez would have to have had an extraordinarily poor spring training AND none of the young talent in the Mariners system would have impressed enough to warrant a spot in the rotation as well. However, nobody expected Kevin Millwood to start the 2012 season in the rotation, either.

When it comes down to it, the signings of Jon Garland and Jeremy Bonderman are truly low risk as both of them are signed to minor league deals, and it is entirely possible that one of them could show enough in spring training to keep on the 25-man roster. But needless to say, there are not many Mariners fans who would be thrilled if they did.

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When spring training begins next week, teams will have dozens of players to get a good look at in the weeks to come before the season arrives.

All the while, they’ll have a magic number in mind: 25. They need to take a couple dozen and somehow, some way cut it down to 25.

This is going to involve saying “thanks, but no thanks” to the majority of the non-roster invitees they’ve invited along for the ride. For non-roster invitees, spring training may as well be one great big Thunderdome: Many will enter, few will leave.

I have my eye on 10 non-roster invitees with solid chances of starting the season in the big leagues.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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