Kuzul

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in a matter of days, I’ve spent the past week breaking down each team’s list of non-roster invitees—more specifically, the top prospects that have been invited to big league camp.

So today, I thought that I’d break down these players even further with a comparative look at their attributes.

Here’s a look at the most big league ready tools and pitches that will be on display this spring.

Begin Slideshow

Say what you will, but Billy Beane is not averse to making decisive moves. Adding guys like John Jaso and Jed Lowrie may not be as sexy as Josh Hamilton, but the Oakland Athletics have further addressed offseason deficiencies with their moves. 

With Lowrie in the fold, the A’s now have someone with real Major League pop to fill in voids all over the infield. That means players like Eric Sogard and Adam “Skolnick” Rosales have less at-bats in meaningful situations. I like them both, but neither should be hitting more than 70 times a year in the big leagues. 

The reality is, the A’s were not far away last year and the two biggest holes in the lineup have been addressed with a trio of potentially big time upgrades in Jaso, Lowrie, and Hiro Nakajima. Yes, losing Chris Carter has the potential to take home runs away from the lineup. As a matter of fact, I anticipate that happening. 

However, you sometimes have to pull from a position of strength to address a position of weakness. There is no guarantee what Nakajima will give the A’s.

Lowrie would be a fantastic alternative at shortstop. He also fits at second, third, and first base as well. Scott Sizemore hasn’t played second base in the Major Leagues with any consistency. In other words, having a player with a real pedigree in waiting can only help this infield.

But the separation Oakland has from both Texas and Los Angeles, er Anaheim, is in the starting pitching. One to five, no team in the AL West is better than the A’s in terms of pitching. The Angels tried to address their deficiencies with outsiders Jason Vargas, Tommy Hanson, and Joe Blanton. Good luck. They aren’t on the level of the departed Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana. 

Meanwhile, Texas has issues with a lack of starting pitching and the potential issues with Nelson Cruz being implicated in the most recent PED scandal in baseball. The reality is, Oakland’s status quo is still the best in the division until proven otherwise. No team has the depth of pitching combined with a solid lineup one through nine in the division. Oakland doesn’t have a Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Felix Hernandez, Yu Darvish, or any other marquee name (though Yoenis Cespedes is darn close) yet.

What they still have is the best overall team in the American League West.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Each year there are a number of pitchers who get off to a good start during spring training and then are able to carry their performances over to the regular season.

These breakout pitchers can have huge impacts on the playoff races around the MLB. While every team is looking for these starters, they are not easy to find.

This season will be no different, and there are a number of starters who could end up being these breakout players. The following five pitchers all have a chance to have breakout years.

Begin Slideshow

“Pah! Spring training doesn’t mean anything!”

We say it (or something like that) every year. The notion that spring training results are meaningless may as well be a scientific fact, especially when it comes to teams and players that do well.

There are reasons we think this way. One is the simple fact that doing well during the spring season is easy. The competition is light, the weather is warm and nobody’s taking anything too seriously. Going from spring training to the regular season is like going from Study Hall to Advanced Nuclear Physics.

Another reason we think this way is because conventional wisdom says so. It’s not unheard of for successful players and teams to keep it up once the regular season starts, but hot players and teams have also been known to go “pluh” once March turns into April.

This is a case where a quick study of the top hitters, pitchers and teams from recent exhibition seasons shows why the conventional wisdom is so conventional. 

Spring Training Hitting Stars

In situations like these, the ideal scenario involves a 10-year sample size from which to draw statistics. Sadly, MLB‘s spring training database only contains stats from as far back as 2006, so a seven-year sample size will have to do.

Using OPS as a primary measuring stick, here’s a look at the top two hitters from each of the last seven exhibition seasons.

*Mike Morse had the top OPS during spring training in 2008, but he was lost for the year five games into the season. Thus, he didn’t have a fair shot to prove his spring production was for real.

Every hitter in the above table achieved an OPS of at least 1.200 in spring training, but only five stayed hot in the season’s first month and only six finished with an OPS of at least .850. 

There are easy explanations for some of the hitters whose production tailed off once the regular season started. Some guys were just playing over their heads.

Scott Hairston, for example, barely played in the majors in 2005 and 2006, so it’s not a shock that his production tumbled once he started facing major league pitching every day in 2007. Sean Rodriguez had spent the previous two seasons as a utility player for the Angels before joining the Rays in 2010, so his production was too good to be true. The same goes for Kila Ka’aihue, who managed a .712 OPS in 64 major league games before 2011.

Though he’s one of the all-time great catchers, Ivan Rodriguez was also playing over his head during the exhibition season in 2008. He was in his mid-30s at the time, and he was coming off a season in which he only managed a .714 OPS.

On the flip side, there are the guys whose spring production fell in line with their typical regular season production. Albert Pujols, for example, is one of the greatest hitters ever. Jim Thome was still a capable hitter in 2006, as was Derrek Lee in 2007. Mark Teixeira got off to a slow start in 2009, but it’s pretty much inevitable that he will every season. It’s also inevitable that he’ll snap out of it.

What these guys have in common is the fact that each of them was born to hit a baseball. Things like the time and the place matter little when they’re in the box.

Time and place matter a lot when comparing spring training pitching and regular-season pitching. Hitters get to face the dregs of the league’s pitchers during the spring, and established pitchers may be more interested in trying out new pitches and getting their reps in instead of competing.

The degree to which the pitching quality elevates once the regular season begins is the kind of thing that would impact lesser hitters like Hairston, Sean Rodriguez and Ka’aihue. It’s also the kind of thing that would impact less-than-great hitters like Kevin Mench and J.J. Hardy and hitters past their prime like Ivan Rodriguez.

The increase in pitching quality would not, however, impact the greats. If they can feast on regular season pitching, it stands to reason they’d be able to feast on spring training pitching as well. The records, obviously, show that they do.

For everyone else, the success rate will be totally random. For every 2011 Mike Morse, there will be several Hairstons, Pudges, Rodriguezes and Ka’aihues. 

The moral of the story: If a given hitter didn’t hit well before, odds are he’s not going to start hitting well just because he found his stroke during spring training. It’s not a reliable proving ground.

Spring Training Pitching Stars

Just as the hottest hitters tend to put up absurd numbers during the exhibition season, the hottest pitchers tend to light up the stat sheet as well.

Using ERA as a primary measuring stick, here are the top spring pitching performers from the last seven exhibition seasons (minimum 19 innings pitched).

Not one of these 14 pitchers had a spring ERA over 2.00, yet only five managed to maintain their strong pitching in April. Only four went on to pitch over 200 innings, and only three managed to complete the season with an ERA under 4.00.

The list of pitchers who went on to have successful seasons features some familiar names: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, John Lackey and Roy Halladay. Carpenter, Lackey and Halladay are three of the best to come along in recent memory, and Lackey wasn’t a total mess yet in 2010.

This reflects the trend that showed up among hitting stars from the last seven exhibition seasons. Just as really good hitters are going to hit well no matter the occasion, really good pitchers are going to pitch well no matter the occasion.

Jered Weaver in 2008 and Josh Beckett in 2012 may look like exceptions, but there are explanations for why they had mediocre seasons after dominating during the spring. Weaver had just experienced his first full season in 2007 and wasn’t yet an ace-caliber pitcher. Beckett had a strong season in 2011, but it came to a bitter end when he posted an ERA over 5.00 in his final eight starts.

The other pitchers in the above table amount to a mixed bag. Brian Bannister was just starting his career in 2006. Ditto Dana Eveland in 2008. Kameron Loe was still adapting to starting in 2007, and Kyle McClellan was also new to starting in 2011. Rick Porcello was still finding his way in 2010. Luis Mendoza spent most of 2011 in the minors.

And so on and so on. These guys were pitching under different circumstances at the time of their spring training dominance, but one thing we know about them now is that they’re all league-average pitchers or worse.

That goes to show that spring training is just as unreliable a proving ground for pitchers as it is for hitters. The easy explanation is largely the same as the explanation for hitters: the competition level is too mixed.

Just as hitters get to face the dregs of the league’s pitchers, pitchers get to face the dregs of the league’s hitters. Teams want to give their younger hitters a chance to show what they can do, and they’re forced to water down their lineups in split-squad games.

These are spring training staples that allow pitchers to feast, but they go away once the games start counting. The only spring stars who can be counted on to keep pitching well are the ones who have done it before. 

Spring Training Champions

As random as it is, there’s more of an emphasis on individual success in spring training than there is on team success. Wins and losses matter little during the spring because they say little about the true quality of a team.

You can probably guess by now why we know that spring records are only worth so much. Like with hitters and pitchers, the carryover rate is too random.

Just take a look at the teams with the best records from the last seven exhibition seasons.

There are 15 teams in the table, and nine of them missed out on the playoffs in the ensuing season. Only two made it to the World Series. Only one won the World Series.

There are only three real surprises that stand out. The 2007 Diamondbacks, 2008 Rays and 2010 Giants all translated their spring success into success in the regular season and the playoffs. None of them had made the playoffs the previous season, and all three clubs featured young, unproven players.

This shows that it’s possible for success stories to have roots in spring training. Spring training may not be much of a proving ground for players to showcase their true talent, but it is a time for teams to come together. The chemistry developed during the spring can have a lasting impact.

However, talent will be the deciding factor more often than not. As well as the 2006 Royals, 2006 Marlins, 2008 A’s, 2011 Royals and 2012 Blue Jays played in spring training, they failed to build on their success in the regular season. It’s not as easy as the ’07 D-Backs, ’08 Rays and ’10 Giants made it look.

Another trend that shows through here is one similar to how great hitters and great pitchers tend to find success in spring training. Great teams can find success in spring training too, a point proven by the 2007 Tigers, 2009 Angels, 2009 Brewers, 2011 Giants and 2012 Cardinals.

All five of these clubs made the playoffs the previous year, and they picked up where they had left off in spring training. They already had talent in place, and they only had to worry about reconvening rather than coming together.

The lesson here is the same as the lesson concerning pitchers and hitters in spring training: The success can be trusted if the track record says it can be trusted. Otherwise, don’t place any bets.

You can still enjoy spring training, mind you. The competition may be awful and teams may be trotting out players who have never been seen and will never be seen again, but spring training baseball will always have one thing going for it:

It’s baseball.

Note: Spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com. Regular season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

ST. LOUIS, Mo. – Today the St. Louis Cardinals consider themselves in the same place they were at the beginning of 2012—not expecting ace pitcher Chris Carpenter to throw a pitch.

In a Tuesday afternoon press conference, general manager John Mozeliak, accompanied by manager Mike Matheny, made the announcement. 

Mozeliak said Chris Carpenter has experienced renewed discomfort in regard to the condition that cost him most of 2012.

Carpenter contacted the Cardinals on Friday of last week and informed the team that after numerous attempts at throwing bullpen sessions. He was experiencing the same issues with some additional quirks.

Mozeliak reported Carpenter has experienced bruising and redness in his shoulder and hand after throwing.

Carpenter was diagnosed in 2012 with thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent mid-season and made a rather improbable comeback in time to pitch in the playoffs.

As recently as the Winter Warm-up, Carpenter told reporters that he felt optimistic and had started prepping early.

Mozeliak said Carpenter was clearly not happy about having to make the move, but he felt there was no choice.

“He was definitely teary eyed,” he said. “[Carpenter] felt like to some degree he was letting us down.”

Despite that, Mozeliak told reporters that Carpenter believed he needed to be sure that whatever is going on is not going to prevent him from having “a normal after-career life.”

When asked to characterize Chris Carpenter, Mozeliak used one word: passion.

“He’s one of the most competitive players I’ve ever been around,” he said. “[Carpenter] truly willed himself to want to win. I’ll always admire that about him.”

Matheny touted his “intimidating presence” and added that Carpenter really has “a lot coming crashing down on him at one time.”

While the immediate reaction was disappointment from Mozeliak and Matheny, they made it clear that the team is still ready to compete in the spring.

“After you get over the pity party of not having someone, you have to move on,” Mozeliak told reporters.

Mozeliak said that while many questioned the Cardinals’ lack of big off-season moves, he felt it was the best route to take.

Having not traded off pitching prospects for an additional shortstop gives the Cardinals a better crop of pitchers help fill the Carpenter void.

“There’s going to be some opportunities for some younger pitchers to contribute,” Mozeliak said, noting that there would be lots of work to do once they arrive in Jupiter, Fla. for Spring Training.

Matheny said he expects to see Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Jr. and Trevor Rosenthal all gunning for the new spot in the rotation.

When asked about whether departing free agent Kyle Lohse was an option, he said he didn’t want to discuss individual free agent options.

Despite missing nearly five years due to injury, he’s made a lasting impression on the Cardinals organization. Carpenter has compiled 144 career wins and is the only Cardinal aside from Bob Gibson to win a Cy Young Award.

His 1085 career strikeouts are only 10 behind Dizzy Dean who holds the second spot among Cardinals.

He is fifth on the Cardinals all-time WHIP list with a 1.12 ahead of names like Dean and Gibson.  

He is most well-known for his bulldog mentality on the field and for his 2011 postseason run that carried the Cardinals all the way through the World Series.

Mozeliak said Carpenter, who was not at the press conference, wanted to “get all of his ducks in a row” before speaking to the media.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

1. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

 What more can I say? Dylan Bundy has the size and stuff to be a dominant front-end starter. I expect the Baltimore Orioles to ease him into the majors as he continues to mature as a pitcher. He’s only going to get better, which is scary—isn’t it?

2. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays 

Tampa got a huge steal out of Wil Myers in the trade with Kansas City. His patience was very good here and there last year, but when it went away, he slumped pretty harshly. If he continues to show improvements as he did in 2012 and takes walks, he’ll be that star bat to hit alongside Evan Longoria in the future.

3. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals 

Oscar Taveras has really rocketed up the charts for me. Just 20 years old (21 in June), he’s been signed with St. Louis since 2008 and has made short work of the minors.

In Double-A last season he hit a jaw-dropping .321 with 23 home runs, 94 RBI and a 56:42 K:BB line. His discipline at the plate is very good and helped him rack up a .380 OBP with a close-to-average .323 BABIP.

This was the first year the power part of his game came out, and he hasn’t hit under .316 since the Rookie League in 2010. 

4. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers 

Jurickson Profar struggled in his short appearance with the Texas Rangers, but his potential still remains sky-high. Profar seems destined to start the year in Triple-A unless Ian Kinsler is shifted in the field but more grooming will only help him.

Did I mention he’ll only be 20 come Opening Day, too?

5. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians 

Trevor Bauer never really strayed too far from his minor league K/9 rates, registering a 9.4 with Arizona in 2012 compared to 11.2 in Double-A and 10.6 in Triple-A. The issue was his questionable control that finally caught up to him, which saw his BB/9 rate climb from 4.8 (AA) to 3.8 (AAA) to 7.2 (MLB).

If he reins in that control, he has the repertoire to dominate.

6. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners 

Danny Hultzen had such staggering Double-A numbers (8-3, 9.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 to name a few) that he had fans clamoring for a promotion to Seattle. The right move, Mariners brass proved, was Triple-A, which is where Hultzen’s control took a hit. His strikeout rate actually improved to 10.5, but his walks took a huge hit, rising to 8.0. His BABIP also went from .203 to .351 during his promotion.

He’ll be up in due time and likely be a star in the cavernous Safeco Field.

7. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners 

Imagine this rotation, coming soon: Felix Hernandez, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker. Still, few hitters but Walker is in line to join the King and his fellow prospect in a projected formidable rotation of young arms. Walker’s advanced numbers were better than his common numbers, so good things are to come.

He may actually end up beating Hultzen to Seattle.

8. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates 

Gerrit Cole absolutely dominated the minors in 2012, registering a strikeout rate no lower than 9.2 and a walk rate no higher than 3.5. Even scarier is that his BABIP numbers were near average at .267 in Single-A, .315 in Double-A and .375 in one Triple-A start.

He could be a sleeper to join Pittsburgh sooner than expected in 2013.

9. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals 

Shelby Miller was plummeting on lists after a horrid-looking start to 2012.

Fortunately, he rebounded and produced a 10.5 K/9 and 2.6 B/9 in six appearances in St. Louis, one start. His 2.28 FRA and 1.89 FIP were fantastic, and he’s should be back on his way to to- prospect level.

I’m betting on him here to keep it up.

10. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Skaggs struggled in his time up with Arizona, but he still has top-notch stuff. With Trevor Bauer now out of his way, he only needs to be aware of Archie Bradley usurping his path to the desert.

11. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets

12. Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals

13. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

14. Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, Detroit Tigers

15. Travis d’Arnaud, C, New York Mets

16. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

17. Mike Olt, 3B, Texas Rangers

18. Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds

19. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

20. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins

21. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves

22. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

23. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs

24. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins

25. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins

26. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs

27. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros

28. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

29. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins

30. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs

31. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

32. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

33. Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

34. Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle Mariners

35. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

36. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros

37. Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox

38. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox

39. Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees

40. Jake Marisnick, OF, Miami Marlins

41. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals

42. Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox

43. Mason Williams, OF, New York Yankees

44. Matt Davidson, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

45. Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners

46. Alen Hanson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

47. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers

48. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, San Diego Padres

49. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins

50. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

Next Best Five: Kolten Wong (2B, St. Louis Cardinals), Max Fried (LHP, San Diego Padres), Zach Lee (RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers), Kaleb Cowart (3B, Los Angeles Angels), Kevin Gausman (RHP, Baltimore Orioles) and Brett Jackson (OF Chicago Cubs).

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With less than two weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, some organizations still haven’t announced all of their non-roster invitees. Typically, an assortment of veteran players and top prospects who aren’t on the 40-man roster are extended invitations to big league camp.

Teams deliberately handpick the prospects they invite, focusing on those likely to contribute in the major leagues within a matter of years. The rest—including many of the prospects invited to big league camp—are sent to minor league spring training.

Here’s a look at every team’s best prospect who wasn’t invited to major league spring training.

*All stats courtesy of BaseballReference.com.

*All spring training roster information courtesy of MLB.com.

*Some of the player scouting notes appeared as part of their team’s list of top-10 prospects.

Begin Slideshow

When Bartolo Colon signed with the Oakland A’s last year there weren’t high expectations for him.  

Although he had won a Cy Young earlier in his career, he was expected to be an average middle-of-the-rotation starter in 2012.

Colon surprised everyone in 2012 as he went 10-9 with a nice ERA of 3.43.  

Colon’s season would come to an abrupt end when he tested positive for illegal substances in the summer and he was hit with a 50 game suspension.  That suspension will carry over into 2013 and he will be held out of the first week of the regular season.  

Coming of the suspension, it is not a sure thing that Colon will be back to his 2012 form in which he relied on his PED-fueled fastball to blow hitters away with 91 strikeouts.

When Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, he never quite regained his prior form and he struggled so poorly that he couldn’t crack the A’s 25 man roster in the spring of 2012 when the A’s were struggling on offense.

When Colon was suspended and Brandon McCarthy was injured late in the season, the A’s showed off just how much pitching depth they have when Dan Straily and A.J. Griffin came up from Triple-A Sacramento to continue carrying the A’s down the stretch.

The A’s potentially could start the season with their five-man rotation being Brett Anderson, A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and Dan Straily.  Notice that Colon is the odd man out.

With Colon’s suspension costing him the first week of the season, plus the potential for his production to dip coming off such a long suspension, and factoring in the depth that the A’s have in pitching, Colon may not be on the A’s 25 man roster at all.

Colon could find a back-door way onto the team through the bullpen perhaps, but Colon will have to fight to be in the A’s starting rotation come April.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With spring training beginning in less than two weeks, this is the time of year when MLB‘s top stars decide to work on a specific area of their game.

With their position on the roster secure, they have the luxury of concentrating on improving what they perceive to be a weakness.

Last month, I ranked the top 100 players in MLB today. Here are the goals for each of the top 25 players on that list as they enter spring training.

Begin Slideshow

Managers love players who can move around the diamond. Having such flexibility allows them to give tired or injured players days off, while keeping a productive bat in the lineup.

The ability to learn a new position opens up many opportunities for players as well. Aging shortstops may prolong their careers by moving to second or third base. A la Cal Ripken Jr. A team might also employ multiple impact players with the same natural position if one of them is able to learn a secondary spot, like when Alex Rodriguez moved to New York, where Derek Jeter was entrenched at shortstop.

These slides will not include players who only play outfield and have merely moved between outfield spots. Nor will they include catchers who play occasional games at first base to rest their knees.

Begin Slideshow