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When you have two teams playing for a championship, the hope is the play on the field is clean to determine who is best without having to focus on mistakes being made. 

The 2013 World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox hasn’t followed that formula. It is tied one-all heading to St. Louis following two defensive miscues by the Red Sox in Game 2 that led to three runs for the Cardinals. 

One day earlier the Cardinals had their own mental breakdown in the field, with three errors leading to seven of the eight runs the Red Sox scored in Game 1. 

Seeing the Cardinals yuck it up in the field was surprising because they were on routine plays; a throw to second base to start a double play or letting a pop-up drop (though it wasn’t declared an error because official scoring in baseball is insane). 

In a series that is expected to be close between two teams appearing evenly matched on paper, errors will be the difference. That’s held true through the first two games of the series and figures to continue as things shift to Busch Stadium. 

So what has been at the source of these mental gaffes? Is it just players losing concentration for one moment, or is there something else going on?

Let’s examine some of the possibilities. 

Taking Your Eyes Off the Prize

Starting with the funniest error of the series in Game 1, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina let a pop-up that traveled about 40 feet drop in between them in the second inning. The thinking seemed to be Wainwright didn’t take control of the situation because pitchers are traditionally told to stay out of the way on plays like that. 

Of course, when the pitcher has the best chance to make a play on the ball, why would he get out of the way?

Remember when Cliff Lee nonchalantly caught a pop-up on the mound in the 2009 World Series with Philadelphia? That was the greatest moment of that series, even though the Phillies lost to New York, and cemented Lee’s status as a guy who doesn’t care about the stage he is on. 

Wainwright took his eyes off the ball for a split second to see where Molina was. That hesitation was just enough to let the ball drop in front of him, setting up an inning the Red Sox would score two runs for a 5-0 lead. 

Since you have to touch a ball for it to be declared an error, the official scorer awarded Stephen Drew a base hit. Drew could use a batting average boost given how he has hit in the postseason, but this was a mental error and should have been scored as such. 

Seeing the Bright Lights

St. Louis Cardinals

There is an old saying that goes once is a coincidence, twice is a pattern. St. Louis shortstop Pete Kozma‘s first error in Game 1 came on a simple flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter that should have led to an inning-ending double play. 

Nothing happened on the play to suggest Kozma should have missed the ball. It hit his glove square and fell out. He didn’t take his eye off it or rush to turn the double play, not with David Ortiz running to first base. It was just a bad play by a usually-reliable defender. 

To his credit, Kozma owned up to it after the game, telling Jennifer Langosch of MLB.com, “I just missed it. Carpenter made a good feed, and I just didn’t get my glove in it.”

Kozma‘s second defensive miscue, in the second inning of Game 1, was more understandable. Shane Victorino hit a chopper deep in the hole between shortstop and third base, Kozma got his glove on the ball only for it to trickle out. The odds of him being able to make a play on David Ross at second or Victorino at first are slim considering how far to his right he had to move. 

What are we to make of these two errors in two innings from the third-best defensive shortstop in the NL (per FanGraphs)?

If a ball gets dropped because of a runner making a good, hard slide into second base, that is one thing. But to have a ball slip out of your glove because you didn’t squeeze it shut in time suggests the moment got to Kozma. 

Kozma was hardly the only goat in Game 1, though he will get the brunt of the blame. Center fielder Shane Robinson couldn’t pick up Mike Napoli‘s bases-clearing double in the first inning, which came after Kozma‘s first error, allowing Ortiz to score all the way from first base. 

To Kozma‘s credit, he rebounded in Game 2 after coming in as a pinch runner during the pivotal seventh inning. He made a great bare-handed play on a ball that deflected off pitcher Carlos Martinez’s glove to throw out Stephen Drew. 

David Freese, who is rated as the worst defensive third baseman in baseball, per FanGraphs, made an error on what should have been a routine play. He picked up a grounder from Dustin Pedroia and made a bad throw to first base that Matt Adams couldn’t pick out of the dirt. 

If Kozma was overwhelmed by the stage early in Game 1, Freese was doing what he’s done all year. He’s a limited defensive player, as the metrics show, and will have games where an easy play turns into an error. 

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox shot themselves in the foot during Game 2, though they didn’t have as many gaffes as the Cardinals in Game 1, they were just as costly. 

Boston’s problems came on two plays in consecutive at-bats that may have swung the entire series.

Pete Kozma and Jon Jay executed a double steal in the top half of the seventh inning with Daniel Descalso batting. Kozma actually tried to steal third earlier in the at-bat, but didn’t appear to have Craig Breslow‘s delivery to the plate timed well enough to make it successfully. 

On the double steal, Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia may have had a play at third base if he pulled the ball out of his glove cleanly. He bobbled it just a bit, ruining any chance to throw out Kozma. 

Throwing runners out has never been Saltalamacchia‘s strong suit as a catcher, succeeding just 23 percent of the time in his career and 21 percent in 2013, so who knows what would have happened if he got the ball out of his glove cleanly. 

After the Cardinals loaded the bases following a Descalso walk, Matt Carpenter hit a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jonny Gomes, who attempted to throw Kozma out at home only for Saltalamacchia to misplay the throw and let the ball trickle away. Jay moved to third base on the miscue and came home after Breslow‘s throw to third base flew into the left field seats. 

Carlos Beltran followed all the madness with an RBI single to give the Cardinals a 4-2 lead, more than enough for the dynamic duo of Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal to close things out. 

If we were to attribute Kozma‘s problems in Game 1 to the big stage of the World Series, it is only fair that we do the same thing for the Red Sox in the seventh inning of Game 2. 

Specifically, Breslow‘s errant throw strikes me as a classic case of trying to do too much. The left-hander tried to make a difficult play to get out of the inning and paid for it with a bad throw that allowed the Cardinals to take the lead and moved Descalso to third base. 

After the game, Breslow told reporters he saw a play at third base and felt it was a necessary move to make (via MLB.com). 

I looked up and I saw that I definitely had a play there. I didn’t make a good throw. That’s not a throw I make too much, but it’s one I need to make there. That could have been a big out for us.

With respect to Breslow, I disagree that it was a play he needed to make. There is no doubt it was a play he wanted to make, but once you have given up the tying run, your first order of business is to limit the damage. 

It would have been a close play at third base, even with a good throw. Making a poor throw completely reshaped the game for the Cardinals and Red Sox. St. Louis manager Mike Matheny could play the matchups he wanted with the bullpen, while Boston had to figure out a way to solve Martinez and Rosenthal. 

Will The Trend Continue?

Seeing these two teams make so many errors, seven combined through two games, is surprising. The Cardinals aren’t an elite defensive team, at least when it comes to saving runs or zone rating, but did tie for the NL lead with a .988 fielding percentage. 

Boston has an above-average defense, ranking ninth in the league with nine runs saved, 10th with 519 plays made out of the zone and 10th in ultimate zone rating. One play washed all that away and put the Red Sox up against the wall heading to St. Louis. 

Errors are impossible to predict because all it takes is one player taking his eye off of a throw, or one weird hop to change an entire game. 

The Red Sox will weaken their defense in Game 3 with Mike Napoli sitting and David Ortiz playing first base, according to manager John Farrell (via Boston Herald). 

Napoli is thought of as just a slugger, but his defense at first base was very good this season, being credited with 10 runs saved (per FanGraphs). Ortiz has played just 39 innings at first base in 2013 and 130.2 since the start of 2010. 

Even with Ortiz at first base, I would put money on the Cardinals making more defensive mistakes moving forward. We have talked about their defensive inability already, not to mention the fact they are going with Joe Kelly as their Game 3 starter. 

The 25-year-old right-hander has a good fastball, but doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses. He averaged just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings during the regular season, which isn’t good against a team that is capable of working counts and putting the ball in play. 

It’s simple logic that says more balls put in play equals more opportunities to make mistakes. The Red Sox will send Jake Peavy to the mound in Game 3. While he doesn’t rack up strikeouts the way he used to, punching out 7.5 per nine innings in 2013 is very good. 

Both pitchers can be erratic, as we have seen in the postseason with Kelly giving up six earned runs in his last 11 innings and Peavy allowing seven runs in three innings against Detroit in the ALCS. 

Still, if you were to ask me to put faith in one pitcher to help his defense in Game 3, Peavy would be an easy choice. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

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We came into the 2013 World Series expecting a dramatic, drawn-out battle between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals. With the teams tied at a game apiece and the action shifting to Busch Stadium, that’s exactly what it’s shaping up to be.

The Cards probably won’t win three straight and bring the Fall Classic to a premature conclusion, but they should at least take command with two victories at home.

Let’s review their greatest advantages going forward.

*All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.

Begin Slideshow

This is how you want it if you’re a baseball fan. The two best teams during the regular season are facing off in the World Series.

Both the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox finished with identical 97-65 records, earning the top seeds for the playoffs in their respective leagues. Often you see the giants get slain before they can make it to the Fall Classic.

This is only the third time since 1994 that the No. 1 seeds in both leagues have gotten this far, via ESPN Stats and Info.

The entire 2013 postseason has been exciting. Right from the start, fans have been treated to captivating back-and-forth series. The Red Sox could have been bounced in the ALCS, while the Cardinals went the full five against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NLDS.

With any luck, the World Series will be a continuation of the previous rounds. Here’s the schedule for the Fall Classic.

Note: * denotes game may not be necessary.

Boston Red Sox

Regular Season Record: 97-65

Number of World Series Wins: Seven (Last in 2007)

ALDS Opponent: Tampa Bay Rays

ALCS Opponent: Detroit Tigers

The biggest thing for the Red Sox is that their offense shows up and remains consistent. They had one of the best lineups in baseball during the regular season, and they beat up a good Rays rotation in the ALDS.

Then came Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer. Those three, especially Scherzer, had a good series and were let down in a major way by the bullpen.

Against a stacked Cardinals pitching staff, Boston must create runs. It won’t be able to count on St. Louis’ bullpen throwing the series away.

No player will be more important than David Ortiz. He went just 2-for-22 in the ALCS, with one of those hits being a grand slam in Game 2 that tied the game in the bottom of the eighth. As the regular season leader in batting average, home runs and RBI, more should be expected of “Big Papi” on such a grand stage.

At least the Red Sox should be able to count on the bullpen. Koji Uehara threw six scoreless innings in the ALCS, while Brandon Workman, Felix Doubront and Craig Breslow also failed to surrender a single earned run to the Tigers.

St. Louis Cardinals

Regular Season Record: 97-65

Number of World Series Wins: 11 (Last in 2011)

NLDS Opponent: Pittsburgh Pirates

NLCS Opponent: Los Angeles Dodgers

For St. Louis, it will be interesting to see if Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha will continue to be as great as they’ve been the entire postseason. Boston can’t counter with a 1-2 punch that good.

Wainwright has been here before, so he shouldn’t be too much of a doubt in terms of whether he’ll thrive in the Fall Classic.

Wacha, on the other hand, is a 22-year-old rookie who was just selected in the 2012 draft. Now he’s coming off an MVP performance in the NLCS and expected to be an anchor for the Cardinals rotation. It’s a lot of pressure for such a young, inexperienced player.

St. Louis has an offense with its fair share of question marks, too. Two of its biggest hitters haven’t been able to make their presence felt.

Matt Carpenter is just 7-for-42 in the postseason after finishing second on the team in batting average (.318). He’ll need to be better in the World Series.

Matt Holliday has also had a tough time. He’s 11-for-45 in the playoffs and has driven in just five runs. As one of the Cardinals’ biggest bats, he won’t be able to stand in the shadows much longer.

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When the St. Louis Cardinals square off with the Boston Red Sox in the 2013 World Series, baseball fans will be treated to something they haven’t seen since 1999—a showdown between the teams with the best regular season records in each league.

When powerhouse squads like this collide, stars such as David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina jump off the page, but it is often the unheralded names that decide the Fall Classic. Cardinals fans know this to be true thanks to the efforts of David Freese in 2011 and David Eckstein in 2006.

Look for these unheralded hitters to help determine who will be spraying champagne this year.

Matt Carpenter

In years past, Chris Carpenter was the Carpenter to watch from the St. Louis roster, but it will be Matt Carpenter impacting the 2013 World Series.

This year, Carpenter put up numbers that would make most second basemen this side of Robinson Cano jealous, and he made the all-star team along the way. He posted a .318 average to go along with a .873 OPS and actually led Cardinals position players in hits, on-base percentage and WAR.

As the leadoff hitter in a dangerous lineup that features the likes of Beltran, Molina and Matt Holliday, Carpenter will impact the series by continuing to get on base at such a high clip. Red Sox pitchers will be forced to deliver from the stretch and keep an eye on him on the base paths, which only increases the likelihood one of the Cardinals sluggers will see a mistake to crush.

With his NLDS struggles in the rear-view mirror, Carpenter looks poised to finally become a household name against Boston.

Xander Bogaerts

Everyone was ready to hop aboard the Xander Bogaerts hype-train early in the 2013 season, but he didn’t see much Major League action.

However, that didn’t stop the Red Sox third baseman from playing a critical role in games 5 and 6 of the ALCS. After stepping up in such pressure-packed moments, look for Boston to turn to Bogaerts instead of Will Middlebrooks for much of the series.

Bogaerts will find himself near or at the bottom of Boston’s lineup. National League pitchers are accustomed to getting a breather against their counterparts before the lineup turns over, so perhaps the Red Sox third baseman can exploit a mental edge in those situations.

Bogaerts will continue his recent upswing and prove why expectations were (and still are) so high for the youngster.

Allen Craig

One of the quirks of the World Series is that the National League team gets to insert a designated hitter as the visitors, and Allen Craig will likely be that man for the Cardinals.

It didn’t get better than Craig when it came to production with runners in scoring position during the 2013 season. He led the league with a .454 average in those critical situations, despite the fact he has missed time since early September with a foot injury.

The World Series often features nail-biting pitcher duels that come down to crucial hits in pressure-packed moments. Craig’s RISP numbers are a testament to his ability to come through when needed.

Furthermore, while the injury is a concern, he should be more fresh than most players in this series after the time off. If this series turns into a six or seven game grind, Craig will be ready to continue to deliver with runners on.

Shane Victorino

Shane Victorino may have sent Red Sox fans into bliss with his grand slam in Game 6 of the ALCS against the Tigers, but he struggled throughout the series.

Look for the talented outfielder to use the momentum from that slam as a springboard into the World Series. He struggled down the stretch of the year (partially due to a hamstring issue), but he has the talent necessary to shape the outcome of a critical game.

His grand slam garnered the headlines, but it is his defense that really helps Boston. If he doesn’t get a big hit in this series, he will at least help take away one for the Cardinals. With the top team from each league squaring off, a critical defensive error could swing the outlook of the entire series.

Boston knows Victorino likely won’t be the one to commit such a gaffe.

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There’s one pitch that might be powerful enough to keep the Boston Red Sox from winning the World Series.

That pitch is Michael Wacha’s changeup. ‘Tis a thing of great power and beauty, and it will soon be on display in the World Series.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny named Wacha his starter for Game 2 of the World Series on Thursday at Fenway Park. That’s when the Red Sox will get their first look at the rookie right-hander’s signature pitch, and it’s obviously possible that they’ll have to do battle with it again later in the series.

They better be ready for it. Wacha’s changeup is no ordinary changeup, and it’s a pitch that appears to present a troubling matchup for Boston’s high-powered offense.

We can start by discussing that first part.

The Wacha Changeup Appreciation Hour

When the Cardinals first drafted Wacha out of Texas A&M last June, B/R’s Mike Rosenbaum wrote that he had the best changeup in the 2012 draft class, one that that might eventually rate as high as 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale.

Here we are a little over a year later, and that sounds about right. If anything, a 65 or 70 grade for Wacha’s changeup might be conservative. As SI.com’s Cliff Corcoran recently put it: “It seems the best strategy against Wacha’s changeup is to take the pitch and hope that it’s called a ball.”

That’s actually not an exaggeration, as swinging at Wacha’s changeup hasn’t tended to go well.

Per Brooks Baseball, Wacha’s changeup boasts a whiff/swing rate of 40.20 percent between the regular season and the postseason. Not many right-handers are capable of wandering into that sort of territory with their changeups.

In fact, only eight did this year, according to Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboard. Their names: Joe Blanton, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Corey Kluber, Kris Medlen, Stephen Strasburg and Jarrod Parker. 

Another thing about Wacha’s changeup is that it’s not a platoon pitch. Most right-handers use changeups as out pitches against left-handed batters, but Wacha’s changeup is an equal opportunity out-getter.

Left-handed batters have hit just .234 against Wacha’s changeup with zero extra-base hits. Right-handed batters have done even worse to the tune of an .098 average and only one extra-base hit.

Yes, you read that correctly. Wacha has pitched 85.2 innings between the regular season and postseason and thrown a total of 353 changeups. Only one of those has been hit for extra bases, and it was a mere double. That’s next to 43 strikeouts and only seven walks.

It’s not any one thing that makes Wacha’s changeup so special. It’s a combination of things. In fact, his changeup pretty well fits the model of an elite changeup that I drew up earlier this summer. It’s masked well, has good velocity separation from his fastball, is located well and is a late-breaker.

The changeup is a pitch that’s supposed to deceive batters, and the deception must start before the pitch even leaves the pitcher’s hand. If a pitcher releases his changeup from a different arm slot than he releases his fastball, he runs the risk of having hitters pick up on that.

Wacha doesn’t do that. To illustrate with images from TexasLeaguers.com, here’s the release point of the changeups Wacha has thrown in the postseason overlayed against the release point of the four-seamers he’s thrown:

The red in the background is the four-seamers Wacha has thrown in October. The green highlights the cluster of changeups he’s thrown. This admittedly isn’t quite an ideal overlay, as Wacha hasn’t been releasing his changeups and his four-seamers from exactly the same spot.

However, that has more to do with how inconsistent Wacha’s fastball release points have been. His changeup release points haven’t been inconsistent, and he’s been releasing them from an angle that’s not decidedly different from the angle he’s been releasing his fastballs. That’ll do for deception.

As for velocity differential, Brooks Baseball has the average velocity of Wacha’s fastball at 94.41 miles per hour and the average velocity of his changeup at 86.73 miles per hour. That’s close to an eight-MPH difference. A 10-MPH difference is ideal, but eight is a big enough gap to get hitters off-balance.

As for location, go ahead and take a look at Wacha’s zone profile over at Brooks Baseball. What you’ll see is that he’s hardly put any changeups out over the plate. Most of them have ended up below the zone and away from the middle of the plate.

Wacha’s command is one thing that’s made that possible. Another thing that’s made it possible is the movement he gets on his changeup. Some changeups are straight, but Wacha’s is a real diver.

One guy who can vouch is Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe. In the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, Uribe struck out swinging on a particularly nasty changeup from Wacha. It looked a little something like this.

If you think that pitched looked nasty on video, wait ’til you see it illustrated in still images.

Here’s where that changeup was just before it was about to cross the plate:

You can tell that the ball had already started to dive, and that Uribe had decided to swing at it. If he was gearing up to swing at a changeup with lesser movement, he would have had a shot.

But this is where that changeup was a fraction of a second later:

The changeup Wacha threw Uribe completely disappeared. If we smush together the two images we just looked at, the movement was basically this:

No wonder Uribe couldn’t hit that pitch. In the blink of an eye, it both fell off the table and basically traversed the width of the plate. Wacha’s changeup is liable to do that when he throws it, and it’s a big reason why hitters have been so baffled by it ever since he arrived in the show.

Such is the weapon that the Red Sox are going to be up against in the World Series, but now comes the time for the big question. Why should the Red Sox, the very team that led MLB in scoring in the regular season, be particularly worried about Wacha’s changeup? 

It’s simple: Hitting changeups isn’t exactly their specialty.

Red Sox and Changeups Don’t Mix

Some teams are better than others at hitting certain pitches.

One way we know this is thanks to the pitch values kept over at FanGraphs. The simplest one keeps track of how many runs above average individual players and whole teams generate against individual pitches, and that’s where we’re turning our eyes now.

The Red Sox could certainly handle fastballs in 2013. They generated more fastball runs above average than any other team, and by a significant margin to boot. 

But when it came to changeups, the Red Sox were really just OK. They generated just 4.5 changeup runs above average, good for 12th in the league.

The catch is that Mike Carp, Daniel Nava and Quintin Berry were three of Boston’s most productive hitters against changeups. Unless John Farrell decides to start playing Nava in left field over Jonny Gomes against right-handed pitchers again, all three of them will be spending most of their time on the bench in the World Series.

That’s going to mean a shortage of good changeup hitters in Farrell’s starting nine when Wacha is on the mound. And if we narrow things down to changeups from right-handed pitchers using data from Brooks Baseball, the picture for the Red Sox doesn’t change for the better.

Here’s how their projected starting lineup has fared against right-handed changeups this year (regular season and postseason combined):

*These numbers encompass only Victorino’s days as an exclusive right-handed hitter, which Sports on Earth says began after August 4.

Jacoby Ellsbury has done well against righty changeups, hitting for both a solid average and good power. David Ortiz has demolished righty changeups, hitting for an excellent average and excellent power.

But everyone else? There’s not much there but a whole lot of “meh.”

Shane Victorino has hardly been exposed to righty changeups since he started batting exclusively right-handed, and has done little against the ones he’s seen. Dustin Pedroia hasn’t hit righty changeups for power, which makes that mediocre average out to be a hollow one. Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have been strikeout magnets against righty changeups. Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew and Xander Bogaerts basically haven’t done anything against them.

Knowing this, it’s not a shocker that the Red Sox didn’t have an answer for the changeups featured by the Detroit Tigers’ big three in the American League Championship Series.

Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each throw a changeup, and they each broke theirs out in the ALCS. Here’s how the Red Sox did against them:

Verlander didn’t throw his changeup that much in Game 3, choosing instead to use his slider and curveball as his go-to secondaries. But Sanchez and Scherzer went to their changeups a lot, and enjoyed a bit of success doing so. They both got more strikeouts on their changeups than they allowed hits.

In all, five hits in 29 at-bats ending in changeups isn’t good. That’s a .172 average, and it’s attached to a mere .104 ISO. 

Since changeups gave the Red Sox trouble in the regular season and continued to confound them in the ALCS against Detroit’s big three, Wacha has an open invitation to go to his as often as he can in the World Series. 

And don’t be surprised if Wacha and Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist come up with a game plan to do just that. After all, this Cardinals team has already provided one example that shows it knows its scouting reports.

Take Adam Wainwright against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was going up against a team that ranked third from the bottom in curveball runs above average in the regular season, so it’s not the least bit surprising that Wainwright upped the usage of his curveball in the two starts he made against them in the National League Division Series.

Per Brooks Baseball, curveballs accounted for just over 27 percent of Wainwright’s pitches in the regular season. Against the Pirates in the NLDS, nearly 40 percent of Wainwright’s pitches were curveballs.

And it worked. Waino allowed only three hits and struck out 12 with his curveball. All three of the hits were singles.

If exploiting a weakness against a particular pitch could work for Wainwright against the Pirates, then it could work for Wacha against the Red Sox. And alas, exactly how the Red Sox should respond if Wacha goes to a changeup-heavy approach against them is an “easier said than done” scenario.

One goes back to Corcoran’s quip about just taking it and hoping it’s a ball. We know from Wacha’s tendency to leave his changeup below the strike zone that that’s not the worst idea in the world—for anyone who’s curious, Wacha hasn’t deviated from this habit in October.

The act of taking Wacha’s changeup for a ball, however, requires recognizing it. Because Wacha’s changeup is well-masked and a late-mover, recognizing it is hardly easy. And indeed, that the Red Sox have struggled as a team to hit right-handed changeups this season is a clear indication that they’re not loaded with guys who are good at recognizing changeups.

Only Ellsbury and Ortiz seem to have a knack for it. Against them, Wacha will have to tread carefully. The rest of the lineup, however, may have to just hope to do damage against any hangers that might come across the plate.

For you Red Sox fans out there, there may not seem to be much hope in that last statement. But hey, remember this: the Red Sox just won a pennant on a hanging pitch. Perhaps the baseball gods shall will it to happen again.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The improbable is four victories away from reality. After a dreadful 2012 season, the Boston Red Sox rebounded to win 97 regular-season games, captured the ALDS over Tampa Bay and ousted Detroit in the ALCS. Now, they’ll meet an equally excellent St. Louis Cardinals group in the 2013 World Series.

With apologies to the entire AL East gauntlet, Tampa Bay and Detroit, the Cardinals will represent the stiffest test of 2013 for this Red Sox team. In order to win four of seven games against the National League champs, Boston will have to play their best baseball of the season.

In a series that looks destined for a storybook finish, here is a step-by-step guide for the Red Sox to finish their worst-to-first ride with a World Series parade in Boston.

1. Win one of the first two games in Fenway Park

At first glance, that key is strange to fathom. How can the best team in the American League, coming off a 53-28 record in Fenway Park during the regular season (4-1 thus far at home in October), be satisfied with a split in Boston?

Two reasons: Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.

After giving credence to the thought process of Jon Lester and/or John Lackey matching the top two Cardinals starters over the first two games of the series, reality will set in for Red Sox fans: St. Louis is bringing the better pitchers to Fenway Park to start the series.

In 13.2 innings of work in the NLCS, the 22-year-old Wacha didn’t allow a single run. Adam Wainwright has now pitched three straight games with at least seven innings pitched and one or zero earned runs allowed. As ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian pointed out, only three pitchers (Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Christy Matthewson) topped that in a single postseason.

Despite losing the DH when the series shifts to Busch Stadium in St. Louis for Game 3, 4 and 5, Boston will have the starting pitching advantage. If Boston can split the first two against the dominant St. Louis starters, it will be a boon for their chances at a title.

2. Don’t be afraid of playing David Ortiz at first base in St. Louis

The good news: David Ortiz and Mike Napoli, two of the most dangerous October hitters of recent memory, are both healthy and ready to roll in the World Series.

The bad news: When the series shifts to St. Louis, both can’t be part of the starting lineup unless Boston manager John Farrell decides to play Napoli, a former catcher, behind the plate for the first time this season.

Don’t expect that to happen, meaning Farrell will have to choose between his regular first baseman (Napoli) and his designated hitter (Ortiz) when writing out a lineup card for the middle games of this World Series.

Here’s why Boston shouldn’t be afraid of using Ortiz in the field, thus in his customary fourth spot in the lineup, in at least two of the three games in St. Louis: the 2013 interleague play schedule and St. Louis’ right-handed starters.

First, the schedule. Unlike in previous years, interleague play extended throughout the season for all teams. During Boston’s trips to NL parks this past summer, Ortiz saw action at first base in six games, including a series in Colorado during the final week of the regular season. Unlike the critical first base decision that plagued former Red Sox manager Terry Francona during the 2004 and 2007 World Series, it has not been long since Ortiz played first base. Furthermore, Boston’s pitching staff is more prone to allowing fly balls than grounders. During the season, they ranked just 25th in GB-FB ratio (via Fangraphs), signaling that Ortiz’s defensive limits can be hidden for a small, three-game sample.

Of course, if St. Louis featured a left-handed starter, the platoon might be easier for John Farrell to deploy. In Napoli‘s career, he has hit lefties better than righties (.908-.840 OPS). Similarly, Ortiz, the left-handed slugger, has fared better against righties (.980-.816) by a wide margin. The three projected starters for St. Louis during the games in Busch Stadium (Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Adam Wainwright) are all right-handed.

When John Farrell writes out his lineup cards, David Ortiz over Mike Napoli is the correct decision.

3. Use a deep, versatile bench

When assessing the Red Sox 25-man roster, their bench depth stands out. Depending on how John Farrell writes up his lineup card on a given night, there is an abundance of power (Johnny Gomes, Will Middlebrooks), patience (Daniel Nava), athleticism (Xander Bogaerts) and speed (Quintin Berry).

Ironically, the rules of the American League and outstanding depth throughout Boston’s everyday lineup has curtailed Farrell’s ability to deploy his bench on a daily basis throughout the season. Outside of spot starts or occasional pinch hitting or running appearances, the American League game doesn’t lend itself to a major impact from the bench unit on a game-by-game basis.

With the prospect of double switches and removing pitchers when their turn at-bat comes up, look for Farrell to use his bench depth early and often when the series shifts to St. Louis.

The pitching of Lester and offense of Ortiz and Pedroia will be paramount to Boston’s success, but don’t count out a major contribution from players entering the game in the sixth inning or later.

4. Play Xander Bogaerts over Will Middlebrooks

The future is now in Boston. After becoming the youngest Red Sox player (21) in history to record a postseason start, it’s time for Bogaerts to be inserted as the starting third baseman, over Will Middlebrooks, for this World Series.

In total, Bogaerts has reached base in 8 of 11 plate appearances in this postseason. His one-out walk off Max Scherzer during the Red Sox game-winning rally on Saturday night was one of the best postseason at-bats you’ll ever seen. To lay off the 3-2 offering from Scherzer showed more plate discipline in the biggest moment of the season than Middlebrooks showed all summer long.

As Joe Buck said on the Fox broadcast, it was “a pitch that barely missed.”

It’s hard to imagine Bogaerts not in Boston’s opening day lineup in April of 2014, but it’s even harder to imagine them winning this World Series without him in it right now.

*All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted

Agree? Disagree? What are your keys to the Red Sox winning the World Series?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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The 2013 World Series features one of the top managerial matchups in baseball with Boston’s John Farrell and Cardinals’ manager Mike Matheny. Although both don’t have much experience with their current teams (Farrell is in his first season in Boston, Matheny is in his second year in St. Louis), they are both good managers and should be well prepared for the challenge they will be faced with for the next four to seven games.

In a series that is this evenly matched, each team could use an edge over the opponent. The question is, who has the advantage in this managerial showdown?

Before signing with Boston, Farrell managed the Toronto Blue Jays for two seasons. While with Toronto, Farrell experienced a moderate amount of success, posting an 81-81 record in his first season and 73-89 record in 2012. Farrell, according to this quote from the team’s official Twitter account, is still a little shocked at the accomplishment in his first season. 

Farrell has quickly rebuilt the Red Sox into one of the top teams in the American League. Just one year ago, the organization was seemingly falling apart under the watch of Bobby Valentine.

Farrell, who was the Red Sox pitching coach before leaving for the managerial spot in Toronto, has built the Red Sox offense into one of the best in baseball.

The Red Sox ranked second in baseball with a team batting average of .277 and also were second in team hits with 1,566. Boston also led all of baseball in multiple offensive categories including on-base percentage (.349), slugging percentage (.446) and RBI (819).

This increase in offensive production has provided the Red Sox with a huge edge over opponents all year.

Matheny, in his second season as the manager of the Cardinals, is the youngest manager in the MLB at the age of 41.

In his first year with St. Louis, Matheny led the Cardinals to the NLCS before the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants eliminated them.

Matheny has built an offensive lineup, but perhaps his best accomplishment while with the Cardinals has been the continued development with their pitching staff.

The Cardinals had three pitchers win 15-plus games this season in Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller.

The Cardinals’ pitching rotation hasn’t been the only part of the their staff that has been playing lights out this year. Closer Trevor Rosenthal, has done well, maintaining an ERA of 2.63 and Edward Mujica—who was the closer for most of the season before being demoted in late September—has a 2.78 ERA and accumulated 37 saves on just 41 save opportunities.

It appears to me as if Matheny has his club more prepared than Farrell does. Matheny has the team ready to win, and with the veteran presence throughout the team, the Cardinals have been in this position before.

Matheny has made deep playoff runs in both of his seasons as a manager, which gives him an edge over Farrell. After all, it is very hard to win a championship in your first season with a team, which Farrell will likely come to terms with in the near future. 

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The St. Louis Cardinals have lost four of Adam Wainwright’s last five starts with eight or more days of rest, which is important to consider when making your MLB picks Wednesday, as they take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Sports bettors will find that the Cardinals are plus-110 road underdogs in the pro baseball odds, with the betting total sitting at seven in the market.

Let’s take a closer look at Game 1 of the 2013 World Series from a betting perspective, while offering up a prediction along the way.

Gambling stats via SBR Forum

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While the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox are still preparing for the first pitch of the 2013 World Series, the Bleacher Report crew of MLB lead writers is busy trying to piece together strengths and weaknesses for both teams. 

As you would expect for a series between two teams that finished with identical 97-65 records, there is no clear consensus among the five writers over what will happen. The Red Sox do hold a 22-13 edge in the seven categories split between the writers, but even that gap doesn’t feel huge considering how the Cardinals’ strengths matchup with the Red Sox weaknesses.

In an effort to put some method to the madness that will ensue when Game 1 kicks off from Fenway Park on Wednesday, here is how we see the Cardinals and Red Sox in the Fall Classic with analysis of each category to follow. 

Zach Rymer’s Offense Analysis

The Red Sox led MLB in runs scored and on-base percentage in the regular season, and were one of only three teams to hit as many as 175 home runs and steal as many as 100 bases.

Best and most balanced offense in baseball? Yeah, best and most balanced offense in baseball.

Granted, the Red Sox haven’t hit like themselves in the postseason. David Ortiz has only had two good games. Dustin Pedroia is hitting .256 with a .311 OBP. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is hitting .231 with a .259 OBP. Stephen Drew is a dreadful 3-for-35 with one walk and 12 strikeouts. And so on down the line.

But while the Red Sox haven’t been themselves in the postseason, they’ve scored three more runs than the Cardinals have despite playing in 10 games to St. Louis’ 11. Also, Boston’s collective OPS this postseason is 80 points higher than that of St. Louis.

Adam Wells’ Defense Analysis

A clear strength for the Red Sox, defense has been a high priority for this team in recent years. You could see it when the team added Stephen Drew as a one-year stopgap in the offseason, a move which played off brilliantly in Game 6 of the ALCS when he moved far to his left, dove and threw out Miguel Cabrera to keep it a 2-1 game before Shane Victorino’s heroics. 

Overall, neither team was elite in the field this year. Boston ranked 17th and St. Louis ranked 20th in defense, according to Fangraphs. 

However, if you do a position-by-position breakdown, the Red Sox come out looking much better than the numbers would suggest, especially up the middle. Drew (shortstop), Pedroia (second base), Jacoby Ellsbury (center field) and Victorino (right field) were all elite-level defensive players in 2013. 

Even Saltalamacchia, while not a great defensive catcher, made strides in 2013 with his blocking and receiving skills, at least to my eye. He still struggles to throw would-be base stealers out, just 21 percent this year, but as Jason Catania so astutely pointed out, the Cardinals aren’t a team with much speed to use. 

On the flip side, the Cardinals had two elite-level defenders in 2013 (Yadier Molina and Pete Kozma). After that, going by Fangraphs’ defensive ratings, seven of their next eight top defenders are pitchers. The one player who splits that group up, Shane Robinson, is a bench player. 

There is certainly value in having great defensive pitchers, but it doesn’t speak well about the rest of the team when they are floating around average or below-average in the metrics. 

I don’t think the Cardinals will botch a play that loses them a game. If, however, you were to ask me which team is most likely to make a great defensive play that saves a game, I would have no hesitation in saying the Red Sox. 

Jason Catania’s Baserunning Analysis

The presence of Yadier Molina behind the dish will offset things somewhat, but this might actually be the Red Sox’s biggest advantage of all. Boston is one of the elite teams when it comes to making smart choices and things happen on the bases.

Thanks to Ellsbury, Victorino and Pedroia at the top of the lineup, Boston stole 123 bases (fourth-most in baseball) while being caught only 19 times—the fewest in the majors.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are filled with slow, plodding runners like Molina, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Matt Adams, David Freese and Allen Craig (who’ll only be further hampered by an injury to his foot). No wonder they swiped only 45 bases, second-fewest in the sport.

And whereas the Red Sox also have Quintin Berry, who is 28-for-28 on stolen base attempts in his career, the Cards don’t even have a legitimate off-the-bench threat to pilfer in a pinch.

Joe Giglio’s Bench Analysis

The Red Sox are poised to deploy the more versatile bench in the World Series. When the series shifts to St. Louis for the middle three games, John Farrell will have multiple late-game options to use against Mike Matheny. From Berry (28-for-28 in career stolen base attempts) to power bats Daniel Nava, Johnny Gomes and Will Middlebrooks, options will be aplenty depending on that evening’s starting lineup.

Of course, with first base only available for either Mike Napoli or David Ortiz, Farrell will have a first base/designated hitter bench bat similar to Joe Torre’s Cecil Fielder/Tino Martinez duo in 1996.

As Jason Martinez pointed out, St. Louis’ bench, while less star-studded, has received rally-starting moments from players like Shane Robinson and Daniel Descalso. What they lack in punch, though, could be the difference in a World Series game. 

If a game or two bleeds into extra innings, St. Louis might need two or three hits to secure the wining run. Boston? With speed or power, the Red Sox can beat you quickly.

Jason Catania’s Starting Rotation Analysis

In Games 1 and 2, the Red Sox are expected to throw lefty Jon Lester and righty John Lackey, both of whom are quality arms capable of dominating when on their games.

Lester has been the better of the two this October (5 ER in 19.1 IP), but even he hasn’t looked anywhere near as strong as either of the Cardinals’ two righty aces.

Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, who earned NLCS MVP as a rookie, have combined to allow all of five runs on only 25 hits and five walks over 44 innings while whiffing 42.

Where Boston will have to try to make up the difference is on the back end, as the battle-tested Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy match up well enough against the lesser-known Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn.

The key for the Red Sox will be to beat either Wainwright or Wacha in one of the first two games to avoid relying on Buchholz and Peavy, who’s had more than a few playoff disasters in his career, for wins in Games 3 and 4 in St. Louis.

Zach Rymer’s Bullpen Analysis

Koji Uehara is the best reliever on either team and has been about as brilliant in October as he was in the regular season. Craig Breslow has also been outstanding with seven scoreless appearances.

But outside of these two, things are dicey. It’s not ideal that Junichi Tazawa has faced 17 batters and struck out only three of them. And outside of him, Breslow and Uehara, there’s not much in Boston’s bullpen to get excited about.

Meanwhile in St. Louis’ bullpen, Trevor Rosenthal fits the mold of an overpowering closer with his triple-digit heat and pocketful of secondaries. And outside of him, the Cardinals bullpen features a little bit of everything. A power righty setup man in Carlos Martinez. A power lefty setup man in Kevin Siegrist. An excellent LOOGY in Randy Choate. A ground-ball specialist in Seth Maness. A recently outstanding starter in Shelby Miller. Et cetera, et cetera.

It’s like somebody custom-designed Mike Matheny’s bullpen for October.

Adam Wells’ Managing/Coaching Analysis

Trying to quantify the overall effect a manager has on a team is difficult because we only get to see a small part of the job. That being the lineup he runs out there every day and the pitching changes/substitutions he makes in a game. 

Being able to relate to 25 different personalities in a locker room is also a vital, possibly even more important part of the job. 

In that regard, it certainly seems that Red Sox manager John Farrell and Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny are top notch. They came into situations where a lot of talent was in place and have put their stamp on the jobs right out of the gate. 

The one thing that gives Matheny the slightest bit of separation is bullpen management. I never expected to praise him as a manager, mainly based on what he did last year in the playoffs with so much unnecessary bunting. 

However, Matheny has cooled off on the “small-ball style” that really hurt the Cardinals last year and allowed his team to play loose and free. 

Farrell has not had a great postseason. He hasn’t had to do all that much, but in some of the key moments where a decision was heaped upon him, he didn’t shine bright. 

Specifically, the one moment I come back to is Game 6 when he pulled Clay Buchholz and decided to use Franklin Morales to face Prince Fielder in the sixth inning of a one-run game. 

Morales had thrown a total of 1.1 innings in the postseason before that appearance, including one inning of mop-up duty in the seventh inning of a 7-3 Game 4 Detroit win. Yet here he was, thrust into a high-leverage spot in a 1-0 game against the heart of the Tigers lineup. 

I understand you want a lefty to face Fielder, but you have Craig Breslow out there who has been arguably your second-best reliever and capable of getting hitters from both sides of the plate out. 

Predictably, Morales imploded, walking Fielder on four pitches to load the bases before giving up a two-run single to Victor Martinez. 

Farrell was bailed out by Victorino’s slam in the seventh, but this was poor managing that may not end well next time. Perhaps I am holding onto this one misstep too much, though I will say in the postseason all it takes is one wrong decision to undo everything. 

Final Word

The Red Sox are the best offensive team in baseball, but the Cardinals were easily the top offense in the National League and figure to get a boost from Allen Craig’s return. That also allows them to slide Matt Adams further down in the lineup, giving them the kind of depth usually reserved only for AL teams. 

St. Louis has the better starting rotation at the top with Wainwright and Wacha, but when you get into the Games 3 and 4 starters, the gap closes—you could easily argue that the Red Sox duo of Buchholz and Peavy is better than Lynn and Kelly. 

After all this, the only thing we can say with some semblance of certainty is that this series is going to last a lot longer than Boston’s last two trips to the World Series. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments. 

Follow @adamwells1985

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Major League Baseball’s Fall Classic has a way of bringing out the best in some players, but the worst in others.  St. Louis Cardinals’ starters Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn and Boston Red Sox’s starter Jake Peavy and shortstop Steven Drew, are four players who will collapse in this year’s World Series.  Each one of these players is making their first World Series appearance in their current roles.

Joe Kelly 

Kelly hasn’t been great in October.  In three postseason starts, he is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA. In those starts, he’s pitched 16.1 innings, allowed 18 hits and eight earned runs.  

Per espn.com, the Red Sox hit .277 as a team this year.  They are first in the American League in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and on-base plus slugging percentage.  That’s a nasty combination for Kelly, who mainly pitches to contact.  

Kelly figures to be either the Cardinals’ third starter or long reliever.  Making your World Series debut against the American League’s best offense isn’t a recipe for success.

Lance Lynn

Lynn was a member of the Cardinals’ bullpen in their 2011 title year.  But he’s never started a World Series game.  Lynn’s .304 opponents’ batting average in two postseason starts is a nightmare.  He walks his fair share of batters—seven in 11.2 postseason innings—and is prone to spurts of control issues during games.  

Per espn.com, the Red Sox lead all playoff teams in walks with 38.  That combined with their .325 on-base percentage—tops among playoff teams—leaves a razor-thin margin of error for Lynn.  He’ll put runners on base, and Boston will capitalize.  First-time jitters will get the best of him against the Red Sox.  He’ll make things too easy for Boston.

Jake Peavy

Until this year, Peavy hadn’t started a postseason game since 2006.  He now has four postseason starts and a whopping 10.31 ERA to show for it.  That doesn’t bode well against the Cardinals, who led the National League in batting average with runners in scoring position this year.

Like Kelly and Lynn, Peavy has never started in the World Series.  It will be tough for him to step into the fire against an elite Cardinals team.  He’ll surrender runs and will have to rely on the powerful offense behind him.

Stephen Drew

Drew, another World Series first-timer, is one of the weak links in Boston’s lineup right now.  In 35 at-bats, he is hitting .086 with a .111 on-base percentage, according to espn.com.  He has struck out 12 times.  After the Detroit Tigers, things get easier facing Cardinal pitching—but not by much.  

Drew will be up against Adam Wainwright in Game 1 and likely Michael Wacha in Game 2.  His batting average and OBP probably won’t like that too much.  I think his numbers rise a little bit, but not enough to have a truly productive series at the plate.

Check out Buster Olney and Jayson Stark’s World Series prediction podcast via Olney‘s tweet, here:  

In the end, Lynn and Kelly will cost the Cardinals the series.  They will come very close, but Lynn will have a rough go in his start, and Kelly will lose his regular-season magic. The Boston offensive machine will be too much to handle.

The Red Sox will win this series in seven games.  Expect an even more epic finish than the Cardinals’ 2011 World Series against the Texas Rangers.

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