Tag: 2013 World Series

Updated MLB World Series Predictions

Tired of waiting for the season to conclude? Want to know how this will all play out? Well, we have you covered.

Join MLB Lead Writer Zachary Rymer and MLB Contributor Gabe Zaldivar as they give you the brackets for each league heading into the postseason.

At least, that’s how we think they will finish.

As we all know, there is any number of things that can happen in the final few weeks of what has already been a magical season.

While there are obvious winners in several divisions, there is still plenty to discuss as the final games get played.

The Dodgers may have the West won, but they continue to push for the best record in the National League. There is also the beautiful traffic jam of teams involved in the American League wild-card race to consider.

Here is one way it will all go down. Of course, we would love to hear what teams decorate your pre-postseason bracket.

Let the debate begin.

Follow Zach on Twitter at: @zachrymer

Follow Gabe on Twitter at: @gabezal

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Dissecting the Atlanta Braves’ Path to Becoming World Series Favorites

The Atlanta Braves have been absolutely awesome the past couple weeks, if you haven’t noticed. An 11-game winning streak entering Tuesday night’s action has allowed them to leave the rest of the NL East in the dust.

This begs the question: should we consider the Braves World Series favorites based on their recent dominance, or dismiss it and emphasize their prior three-month stretch of inconsistency?

 

Despite a fiery 13-2 start to the 2013 season, a lot went wrong early on.

Remember how Atlanta’s outfield had the potential to be one of the best ever? The supreme athleticism, past production and relatively young ages of Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton and Justin Upton made it seem like a safe bet that they would be worth at least 10 Wins Above Replacement. Many analysts had them penciled in for even better performances, and understandably so.

Courtesy of FanGraphs, here’s what this trio accomplished from 2010-2012:

  2010 2011 2012
Jason Heyward .849 OPS, 4.7 WAR .708 OPS, 2.0 WAR .814 OPS, 6.4 WAR
B.J. Upton .745 OPS, 3.8 WAR .759 OPS, 3.9 WAR .752 OPS, 3.1 WAR
Justin Upton .799 OPS, 2.6 WAR .898 OPS, 6.1 WAR .785 OPS, 2.1 WAR

Funny how baseball works.

Coming off a career year, Heyward stunk in April. He batted an anemic .121 through 17 games before an appendectomy sent him to the disabled list.

Dealing with enormous pressure after inking a five-year, $75.25 million contract, B.J. endured a humiliating start of his own. He was striking out as often as anybody in baseball and facing the threat of demotion as his struggles continued into June, according to the Associated Press.

In stark contrast, the younger Upton was challenging franchise records with a season-opening power surge, which included six home runs through seven contests and elevated the Braves to first place. They’ve been there ever since, but hardly because of Justin. The 25-year-old saw his name disappear from MVP and All-Star discussions as his offensive numbers plummeted, particularly against right-handed pitching.

Fortunately, the Braves have been carried by several unlikely sources of production.

Third baseman Chris Johnson, an afterthought when the Justin Upton trade was completed in January, leads the National League in batting! After years on inexplicable mediocrity against left-handers, he entered Tuesday with a .963 OPS against them. A .425 BABIP assures that Johnson’s numbers will regress, but maintaining his excellent line drive rate should prevent anything too dramatic.

Former janitor Evan Gattis solidified the catching position while Brian McCann recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. He doesn’t have a strong case for NL Rookie of the Year anymore, but manager Fredi Gonzalez ought to be thrilled to have a such a slugger available off the bench.

Most importantly, the pitching staff has smoothly adjusted to major losses. Luis Avilan masterfully sets up for Craig Kimbrel like Jonny Venters used to, and coming off a frustrating campaign at Triple-A, Julio Teheran has deepened the starting rotation. Because of him, the front office didn’t need to panic in response to Tim Hudson’s fractured ankle.

There’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Braves moving forward.

For one, Kimbrel is the best reliever in baseball. This cannot be disputed. Dating back to the 2011 All-Star break, the right-hander has racked up 240 strikeouts with only 43 walks in 137 innings, converting 94 of 103 save opportunities (91.3 percent).

Justin Upton has awoken from his slump, recording at least one hit in each game since July 27. Between he, Gattis, McCann and Dan Uggla, it’s awfully risky to leave a fastball up in the strike zone, as each of them can deposit one into the bleachers with ease.

Then we have Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons, who used to be two of the most underrated players in the entire sport. Now, most of us have been made aware of Freeman’s surreal 1.168 OPS with runners in scoring position, and Simmons’ unprecedented defensive excellence (via Christina Kahrl, ESPN.com).

Rotation depth is yet another strength of Atlanta’s now that Brandon Beachy is back from Tommy John surgery. If the Indiana native can find any semblance of his 2012 form (2.00 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 13 GS), he and Mike Minor (2.76 ERA, 137 K in 150.0 IP) will be an imposing pair to face in any playoff series.

With less than eight weeks left in the regular season, the Braves will not only cruise toward a postseason berth, but to the No. 1 record in the Senior Circuit.

Consider their remaining schedule. This team won’t play another game west of St. Louis, which means no long flights or major time-zone changes messing with players’ biological clocks. Moreover, only two more series—seven total games—will come against opponents with winning records.

The extraordinary cushion separating the Braves from the Washington Nationals will provide ample opportunities to rest stars down the stretch.

 

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The Make-or-Break Player for Every 2013 World Series Contender

In order for MLB teams to be World Series contenders, they need significant contributions from every single player on their 25-man rosters.

Baseball is a team sport that demands that each player do what they can to ensure the success of their team. A bench player drawing a walk as a pinch-hitter in the late innings of a tight game can be just as important to a team as the slugger that wallops a three-run home run.

However, each team has a go-to player as well—that one special weapon they can rely on to help carry them through. In many cases, that one player can be critical to a team’s overall success.

Here is one player from each contending team in 2013 whose performance could make or break their team’s chances of reaching the World Series.

 

Note: The criteria for World Series contenders is based on the latest odds for the 12 top teams posted by Bovada.

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Detroit Tigers: Anibal Sanchez and the Dominoes He’s Knocked over

We all remember musical chairs. It was a simple numbers game—there was no other way to look at it, unless you grew up spittin‘ game like me and always lined up behind the cute girl in class so that as soon as the music stopped you swooped right underneath her so her backside conveniently landed right in your lap—but that’s neither here nor there. There weren’t enough chairs to go around.

A baseball roster has only 25 spots on it, and the Detroit Tigers have a problem similar to the level of suaveness of Arthur Fonzarelli: something we call a surplus.

The Tigers just re-signed RHP Anibal Sanchez to a reported five-year, $80 million contract. There’s a lot to like in Anibal’s game, but shelling out $80 million on a guy without a “stellar” year to his credit is a lot like handing the role of Superman to Brandon Routh. Let’s hope this was more of a Dave Dombrowski move than a Mike Illitch move.

The problem with the Sanchez signing may not lie in the numbers—since Illitch literally has as much care for his finances as Charles Montgomery Burns—but it does create a riddle of space and volume within the Tigers organization.

As mentioned, we have 25 spots, and more than 25 names with which to fill them. Let’s look at the numbers, and see how this Sanchez signing may affect the overall landscape of the Tigers’ Opening Day Roster.

 

What the Team Looks Like Today

If we drew up the 25-man roster today, here’s what we would have:

The batting order: 1. Austin Jackson, 2. Torii Hunter, 3. Miguel Cabrera, 4. Prince Fielder, 5. Victor Martinez, 6. Andy Dirks, 7. Jhonny Peralta,  8. Alex Avila, 9. Omar Infante.

The starting rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello.

The bullpen: Bruce Rondon, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Bryan Villareal, Al Alberquerque, Phil Coke, Drew Smyly.

The reserves: Ramon Cabrera (backup catcher), Quintin Berry (utility OF).

Here is where it gets tricky. We’re already at 23 players are there a few names you already know are missing.

Don’t forget that the Tigers just drafted two players from the Rule 5 draft: Kyle Lobstein and Jeff Kobernus. If you’re not familiar with the rules regarding this draft, it’s very simple: any player you draft must remain on your 25-man roster for the following year or he is forfeited. Basically, you can’t send anyone you draft down the minors. 

Another detail is that you actually do not have to draft, if you so choose. So, by following simple logic, the Tigers did draft these players and, therefore, must like them. They will be on the roster this season.  And, what a coincidence, they round out the 25 men.

If you aren’t familiar with either of these players, don’t be ashamed. Lobstein is a LHP who will come out of the bullpen, and Kobernus is an infield version of Quintin Berry (speed for days, decent bat and good defense).

Now, let’s see how this roster affects all those little rumors swirling around out there.

 

Rick Porcello Will be Traded

According to media reports, there are as many names about to replace Porcello‘s in the fifth rotation spot as there are actors who have portrayed Dr. Who (personally, I find it a shame Christopher Eccleston doesn’t hurl the pill, but the Brits never did like “the baseball”). The question still begs: Is it worth it to trade Porcello? Let’s watch the dominoes fall if that in fact were the case:

Consequence 1: Drew Smyly fills his spot.

Consequence 2: Tigers have to trade Porcello for a LH relief pitcher.

Consequence 3: Tigers farm system is even more depleted.

Alternative? Roll out the all-righty rotation with Porcello at No. 5. Smyly returns to the bullpen where he shined in the playoffs, and the Tigers have protection in terms of depth in case one of their aces (here’s lookin‘ at you, Fister) succumbs to injury.

Let’s also not forget the dreaded 2014 offseason. Both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer become free agents at that time, and it’s hard to believe that even Illitch (likely exiled to a full-bodied respirator a la Arthur Digby Sellers, Lebowski-style) will have the pockets to retain both of their services. 

In the likely instance the Tigers lose one (most likely Scherzer to the Yankees), they will be counting on Sanchez and Fister filling the holes while Porcello and Smyly represent a bright future. Without one of them, I don’t see another pitcher in the system ready to handle a role like that.

 

The Tigers Will Acquire an Established Closer

Herman Boone once handed the reins to the offense of the T.C. Williams football squad to a quarterback who had never played a down (at least in the movie), and look what happened? Sunshine rode them golden locks to the state title. It can happen. Youth can be a lighting rod.

Look around the league. Atlanta, the Yankees, Boston with Papelbon, Texas and Neftali Feliz. What do they have in common? Homegrown bullpens. If there is one subdivision of a baseball team that needs to be homegrown, it’s a bullpen. Why do think teams are so quick to flip successful middle relievers for young prospects? Because they’re a dime a dozen. 

High-octane arms with a two pitches are not hard to come by for those who look for them in the draft. 

Closers? Difference story. But you know what? It’s time for the Tigers to sack up and roll the dice.  Bruce Rondon needs to be the closer this year. Come out and say it, Dave. Make no doubt about it.  Either that, or you send $15 million for a one-year deal for Rafael Soriano? C’mon

Rondon is going to get his chance sooner or later. Might as well be now. If he blows it, that’s why MLB invented a trade deadline. Make a move then. This is one of those rare occasions where the right move and the thrifty move are one and the same.

 

The Tigers Need an Upgrade at Shortstop

This one goes back to Rick Porcello. Dave Cameron wrote a very interesting piece on Kid Rick (found here) where he astutely outlines that if Porcello had a decent defense behind he would actually be a very valuable pitcher. Sorry, Jhonny Peralta, but that means you gotta go. Stephen Drew rumors have been swirling around forever, but nothing’s happened. 

Time to change that, Dave. Grab the defensive whiz and start saving some runs for Porcello—who could become the best fifth starter in baseball.

So, say Drew is added. Where does Peralta go? Send on the prospects! Where do the Tigers need the most prospects? In the infield. Hitting machine Nick Castellanos and Avisail “the Tool Man” Garcia are waiting in the wings in the outfield, and, with Austin Jackson, pretty much have the Tigers covered pole-to-pole for the foreseeable future. A project at 2B or 1B would be ideal since either FIelder or Cabrera will switch to DH once Martinez’s contract is up after 2014.

 

Where in the World Will Brennan Boesch Land?

Boesch was likely the most notable name left off the 25-man roster above. Once a fan favorite for this ability to hit, he has now slipped into afterthought status due to a string of mediocre performances. The man is on his way out, it’s just a matter of when or for what price. Personally, I can’t say these words enough: MORE PROSPECTS!

There are rumors of Boesch to the Mariners for a LHP (Charlie Furbush doing his best Darth-Vader-return-to-the-light-side impersonation, anyone?), which I’m personally fine with. It may be best to trade him for Brendan Ryan and have Ryan he a platoon guy with both Drew and Infante in the middle. Ryan hit .234 against LHP last season and is considered the best defensive SS in the game. Any upgrade to the defensive side of the baseball should be a welcomed one.

 

Who Gets the Scraps

Unfortunately, a fan favorite of mine, Ramon Santiago, is another odd man out. He, along with Danny Worth, do not have a job come the beginning of April and need new homes. Ship them for prospects and hope we get lucky is all I can say. Poor Ramon.   

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