Nationals 2 – Giants 3: Bottom 8th
The game is being shown live on Fox Sports 1, but stick with us for real-time updates and analysis as well as pictures, video, GIFs, tweets and anything else worth mentioning from this potential elimination game.
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After a 29-year exile from October, the Kansas City Royals are on the verge of sweeping past the Los Angeles Angels and storming into the American League Championship Series.
The Royals are taking apart the Angels, the team with the best record in the regular season, thanks to a combination of unreal speed, perfectly timed home runs and lights-out pitching. With Game 3 of the American League Division Series looming at 6:37 p.m. ET on Sunday at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, the Angels are sitting in an 0-2 hole.
Of the 22 teams that have ended up in such a situation, only four have found their way out, according to Zach Helfand of the Los Angeles Times. Here are the three keys for each club as the Royals look to put an end to the Angels’ 2014 season, while the AL West winners hope to extend it for at least another day.
Keep it right here for all the live updates of the much-anticipated Cardinals vs. Dodgers Game 2 matchup. Who will come out on top in a hotly contested NLDS? We’ll be the first to let you know!
SCORE UPDATE: Cardinals 0 – 2 Dodgers, Bottom 6th
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If you need proof of how fickle and unpredictable baseball can be, all you have to do is look at what happened on Friday with Clayton Kershaw getting lit up, Kansas City getting an extra-inning homer for the second-straight day and Delmon Young getting another big postseason hit.
The good news for fans who like to breathe is that Saturday and Sunday’s slate features two games each, so you can marinate over one game for a little bit before being thrust into the madness all over again. Those of us who found 13 straight hours of baseball exhilarating will have to make due with half that.
However we consume the games this weekend, there is no shortage of things to talk about coming out of what we saw on Thursday and Friday. We’ve got predictions for what to expect this weekend as soon as we show you when and where to find the games.
Predictions
San Francisco at Washington
We should’ve seen this coming with the San Francisco Giants. They only make the playoffs every other year, and when they do it’s resulted in World Series titles in 2010 and 2012. However, let’s pump the brakes on crowning them right now.
Jake Peavy did a fantastic job shutting down Washington’s lineup in Game 1, but that wasn’t completely unexpected. After all, the right-hander was masterful after being acquired from Boston with a 2.17 ERA in 78.2 innings that included a 1.44 mark in September.
Game 2, however, is a huge advantage for Washington on the mound. Jordan Zimmermann has the glimmer of that season-ending no-hitter, but he was also one of the best pitchers in the National League not named Clayton Kershaw.
In fact, if you go by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, Zimmerman’s 5.2 mark was the second-best among NL starters. Richard Justice of MLB.com also tweeted out how much the Washington Nationals love playing with their right-handed stud on the mound:
When you combine Zimmermann’s success with his Game 2 opponent, Tim Hudson, this really comes out as a no-contest. Hudson started out looking great for the Giants this season, but at 39 years old all those innings take a toll.
The groundball specialist was a disaster in September with an 8.72 ERA and 35 hits allowed in 21.2 innings. Opponents had an OPS of .931 against him for the month. Even in a small sample size, it’s hard to defend how Hudson ended the season.
Washington’s got a lot of hitters who strike out, which was their undoing in Game 1, but Hudson isn’t a pitcher who misses bats. All that contact will eventually turn into good things for a potent Nationals lineup that was ready to break out in the later innings on Friday. Expect this series to go back to San Francisco evened up.
St. Louis at Los Angeles
I’m sure we all expected a game with Adam Wainwright and Kershaw on the mound to end with 19 runs and 26 hits between the two teams. Of course, this being baseball, no one will be shocked to see Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke throw up zeroes through seven innings.
Lynn is one of those pitchers who flirts with disaster because his command is so erratic. The big right-hander walked 72 in 203.2 innings this season, yet he had a career-low 2.74 ERA, thanks to the best hit rate (8.2 per nine innings) and home run-to-fly ball ratio (6.1 percent) of his career.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a much better offense this year than they did in 2013, thanks to a healthy Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, as well as the improved Dee Gordon at the top of the lineup. They led the league in team on-base percentage (.333) and finished sixth in walks (519), which plays into Lynn’s weakness.
Greinke has been a machine at home this season, recording 111 strikeouts in 98.2 innings. The St. Louis Cardinals didn’t hit well with runners in scoring position during the regular season (.254/.336/.365), but they were able to figure out Kershaw in the seventh inning with four singles before a bases-loaded double from Matt Carpenter.
Given the much larger sample we have from the Cardinals in which they struggled in high-leverage scoring situations, the advantage goes to the Dodgers in this game because Greinke is a more stable presence on the mound than Lynn.
Baltimore at Detroit
In an interesting twist, Buck Showalter changed his starting pitcher for Game 3. Bud Norris will get the nod over Miguel Gonzalez, though Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com noted that neither one has had success against Detroit in his career:
The 29-year-old Norris went 15-8 with a 3.65 ERA in 28 starts this season. He is 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA while striking out 24 and walking 16 in four career starts vs. the Tigers.
It wasn’t immediately clear why the Orioles decided to make a change on the eve of Game 3. Gonzalez also has struggled against the Tigers throughout his career, with Detroit’s lineup posting a .328/.380/.672 slash line in 71 plate appearances vs. the third-year starter.
Whatever Showalter’s reasons for swapping pitchers, it’s hard to argue with him, given how well he manages the bullpen and seems to always make the right move in key spots.
That said, the Detroit Tigers would have a huge advantage on the mound, regardless of who was pitching for Baltimore. David Price was acquired in July to fill the void left by Justin Verlander’s struggles and Anibal Sanchez’s injury this season. He more than held his own with 82 strikeouts and 74 hits allowed in 77.2 innings.
Price’s precise control will also help the Tigers in this game because Brad Ausmus can’t afford to go back to his bullpen in a big spot again. If this game turns into a battle of relievers, Baltimore has the huge edge. Ausmus’ best/only play is to use Sanchez for multiple innings again like he did in Game 2, because Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria aren’t cutting it.
The Baltimore Orioles are probably going to win this series, but given how well Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez are hitting, the Tigers should at least get one game before their season ends.
Los Angeles at Kansas City
If the Royals were a fun story when the playoffs started, they are making everyone believe in their ability to compete for a championship. Their strengths have shone through the first two games with terrific starting pitching from Jason Vargas and Yordano Ventura, nine scoreless innings from the bullpen and timely hitting.
Even though they hit an MLB-low 95 homers in the regular season, the Royals got two in extra innings from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.
The Angels were always a flawed team, despite winning an MLB-high 98 games, though what appeared to be their biggest flaw (starting pitching) has been effective with three runs allowed in 13 innings. Their offense has been a disaster.
Mike Trout’s first postseason looks like one to forget as he’s 0-for-8 with two walks. Albert Pujols hasn’t been much better at 1-for-8, while Josh Hamilton is a shell of his former self (0-for-9). The blame isn’t just on those three, as the entire lineup is 10-for-65 in two games.
In a must-win game to keep their season alive, the Angels are going with their worst starting pitcher in C.J. Wilson. He had a 4.51 ERA in the regular season and league-high 85 walks.
The Royals counter with their best starting pitcher, James Shields, who should be allowed to throw more than 88 pitches in five innings, assuming Ned Yost doesn’t have one of those moments where he wants to make everyone’s head explode.
Until we see some evidence that the Angels have life, you can’t pick them. It also doesn’t help that they are putting their most important game in the hands of the always volatile Wilson. Believe it or not, the Royals are going to the American League Championship Series.
Note: Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs
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The first two days of the American and National League Division Series have lived up to the expectations of the fans, but with Day 3 of the MLB playoffs schedule full of intense action, the anticipation continues to climb.
If you like elite pitching, Saturday’s action is right up your alley. With San Francisco’s Tim Hudson, Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann, St. Louis’ Lance Lynn and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Zack Greinke all getting the start on Day 3, the on-field action should be intense.
Here is the full schedule for Day 3 with updated predictions for the series on tap for Saturday.
Breaking Down the Matchups
San Francisco at Washington
The San Francisco Giants took a thrilling Game 1 victory against the Washington Nationals, 3-2, on Friday. With the Nationals looking to get retribution, the team won’t have to wait long to get its hands on the Giants.
Game 2 in Washington should be just as thrilling as the opening game of the series.
San Francisco won’t go down without a fight, and the team will send veteran starting pitcher Hudson to the mound in this crucial Game 2. Hudson told Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post about what he feels it takes to make a deep run in the postseason:
Obviously they have a talented group over there. There’s no question. They have some great pitching. But come playoff time, talent can take you a long ways, but what do you have between your legs? That’s going to take you real far. And I think we’ve got a group in here that really has some of that.
The Giants are leading the series against Washington, and it is the Nationals that must show the intestinal fortitude on Saturday. The team must get to Hudson early and rattle his cage. With the starting pitcher off his game, the offensive production of players like Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper should be enough to earn a victory for the Nationals.
On the other hand, if Hudson pitches well and San Francisco continues to get production from the entire lineup, the Giants have the ability and experience to pull away from Washington and win Game 2 and the entire series.
Predicted Final Score: Washington 3, San Francisco 2
St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers
The most thrilling game of the 2014 MLB postseason was Game 1 between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers. With L.A. holding a 6-2 lead heading in the seventh inning, St. Louis exploded for eight runs and won the game, 10-9.
The animosity was overflowing in Game 1, as both benches cleared following Adam Wainwright hitting Yasiel Puig with a pitch. Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez spoke to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com after the game regarding the altercation:
I was just basically saying, ‘You guys keep doing this over and over. We’re not going to put up with that.’ They’re going to say it’s not on purpose, but come on. It’s Wainwright. He knows where the ball is going.
Even the MLB.com Twitter account shared the animosity:
Now the focus turns to Game 2. With Lynn getting the start for the Cardinals and Greinke carrying the load for Los Angeles, offensive production may not be as easy to come by this time. While the pitching matchup on Saturday is tough, the battle between Clayton Kershaw and Wainwright to start the series resulted in a ton of offense as well.
St. Louis and L.A. are settled in for a long series. Now that the teams are familiar with each other’s postseason approach, Saturday’s game should feature more small ball. With two superior pitchers going at it, the score in Game 2 should be lower than the opening matchup.
Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles 5, St. Louis 4
*Stats via MLB.com.
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SCORE UPDATE: Giants 2 – 1 Nationals, Bottom 18th (SF leads NLDS 1-0)
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It’s fair to say that Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals did not go as planned.
The best pitcher in the game and the likely NL MVP, Clayton Kershaw, faced off against another bona fide ace and true gamer in Adam Wainwright. All signs pointed to it being a classic pitcher’s duel, but that couldn’t have been further from the truth.
Wainwright never settled in and wound up allowing 11 hits and six earned runs in 4.1 innings of work, and the Dodgers had built a 6-1 lead heading into the sixth inning.
Kershaw was rolling through six, striking out five straight at one point, before Matt Carpenter snapped him out of it with a solo home run in the seventh.
Then the wheels fell off in the eighth, as Kershaw allowed four straight hits to open the inning and six total, with a bases-loaded double from Carpenter finally chasing him out and putting the Cardinals up 7-6 in the process.
A Matt Holliday three-run home run off of reliever Pedro Baez capped the scoring for the Cardinals, and they wound up needing all three of those runs, walking away with a 10-9 victory in the series opener.
After a shockingly high-scoring first game, the two teams are back at it Saturday night for Game 2 with a 9:30 p.m. ET first-pitch time.
With the Cardinals looking to jump out to a big series lead before heading home and the Dodgers hoping to even things up, here’s a look at each team’s keys to a Game 2 victory.
Keys for the Cardinals
Get a Quality Start from Lance Lynn
Props to the Cardinals bullpen for holding it together after Wainwright’s early exit, as the Dodgers easily could have piled on and put things completely out of reach.
A total of seven relievers combined to throw 4.2 innings, allowing five hits and three runs. Not great numbers, but a solid job making the best of a bad situation.
Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal both topped the 20-pitch mark in their appearances, while the other five relievers threw 13 or fewer pitches, so no one pitcher out of the pen was overly taxed. However, it would certainly set the team up better for the rest of the series if it could get a quality start from Lance Lynn and head into the travel day with a relatively fresh bullpen and a chance to reset for Game 3.
Lynn has been a workhorse for the Cardinals this year, reaching the 200-inning mark for the second straight year with a career-high 203.2 and going 15-10 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in the process. They were productive innings too, as he turned in 24 quality starts to rank among the National League leaders in that category.
His Game 2 opponent, Zack Greinke? Notably absent from that list, as he finished the year with 21 quality starts at a 66 percent quality start rate.
The Cardinals are not asking Lynn to go out and twirl a complete-game shutout Saturday, but if he can go six or seven innings and keep the Dodgers from putting up a crooked number, it would be a big step toward jumping out to a big 2-0 series lead.
Another Big Game from Matt Carpenter
A case can certainly be made for Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina or even newcomer Jhonny Peralta, but for my money, the single most important player to the Cardinals’ offensive success has to be leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter.
Carpenter made the move from second to third base this year, hitting .272 and leading the National League in walks (95). He was also third in runs scored (99) and eighth in on-base percentage (.375), so while he did not match his ridiculous 2013 production, he was still one of the better table-setters in the business.
Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, though, as the Cardinals are simply a different team when Carpenter is producing.
Those numbers represent the Cardinals’ win-loss splits during the 158 regular-season games that Carpenter played in this season.
You can add another win to the productive side for Friday, as he was 2-for-5 with four RBI and two runs scored, including a solo home run in the sixth and a three-run double in the seventh, both off of Clayton Kershaw.
“I have the utmost respect for Clayton and what kind of pitcher he is. It makes it more fun when you’re playing against somebody that is known as being the best pitcher in the game,” Carpenter told reporters after the game.
Game 1 was a big plus for an offense that has struggled to consistently score runs this season, and if the Cardinals hope to keep it up for the rest of the NLDS and beyond, it will all start with Carpenter at the top.
Keys for the Dodgers
Zack Greinke Picks Up His Fellow Ace
Due to the early season back injury that sidelined Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers rotation was never lined up according to plan this season, and Saturday will actually be the first time this season that Zack Greinke has immediately followed Kershaw in the rotation.
As much as teams love to build momentum and string together wins, one of the true signs of an ace is being able to be counted on every fifth day to take the ball and put a stop to any slide the team may be suffering through.
Greinke may not be the ace of Los Angeles’ rotation, but he is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in the National League, and the Dodgers gave him ace money when they signed him to a six-year, $147 million deal.
Now they need him to be that stopper after a tough loss Friday.
A year ago, Greinke was 6-0 with a 1.85 ERA in 10 starts after a loss. He saw more opportunities this season following Hyun-Jin Ryu in the rotation and was solid once again, going 11-6 with a 2.57 ERA in 19 starts.
On top of that success following losses, Greinke has also had the Cardinals’ number head-to-head since joining the Dodgers.
Highlighted on that table are two big starts against the Cards in the NLCS a year ago, when Kershaw struggled but Greinke pitched well enough to win his Game 1 start and then earned the victory in a must-win Game 5.
While the Cardinals are simply looking for a quality start from Lynn, the Dodgers would love nothing more than for Greinke to give the bullpen a night off and fire a gem, and he’s more than capable of doing just that.
Clutch Hitting from Hanley Ramirez
The entire Dodgers offense was firing on all cylinders over the final month of the season, as they hit .295/.355/.472 as a team and averaged a whopping 6.24 runs per game. Leading the way were the team’s two big boppers in the middle of the lineup, Adrian Gonzalez (.897 OPS, 25 RBI) and Matt Kemp (1.047 OPS, 25 RBI).
For what it’s worth, Hanley Ramirez hit .352 with an .876 OPS, but he also went homerless for the month and tallied just 11 RBI. That may sound like nitpicking, but fast-forward to Friday night’s game.
Ramirez had a solid night on the surface at 2-for-5, but he also left a game-high five runners on base, tallying one RBI on a singe in the third inning.
It was nice to get a couple knocks in the first game of the series, but Ramirez is capable of being a dynamic player in the middle of that Dodgers lineup. He doesn’t have to carry the offense right now, with so many other people hitting, they simply need him to keep the train going when they are having a big inning and deliver when he has the opportunity to drive in runs.
(On an unrelated note, he also has to find a way to keep his helmet on his head, am I right? What did it fall off, 10 different times on Friday? Anyway…)
Looking ahead to Saturday’s matchup, Ramirez is 2-for-10 with a double (above) against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn, including an 0-for-3 performance against him in the NLCS last year. A big performance against him in Game 2 could be enough to spark a huge postseason from the free-agent-to-be, and that would make an already dangerous Dodgers lineup downright scary the rest of the way.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference, and accurate through the start of play on Saturday, Oct. 4.
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Both National League Division Series got underway Friday, with the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals each emerging victorious and taking 1-0 series leads in a pair of one-run games.
Saturday features all four Senior Circuit clubs battling it out once more, as the Nationals and Dodgers look to tie their series up before they take to the road.
Here’s the information you’ll need to view Saturday’s contests as well as a preview of each game.
Giants at Nationals
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
When: Saturday, October 4
Start Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Watch: Fox Sports 1
Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
Series Schedule
The first game of this best-of-five series saw the Giants narrowly take a 1-0 advantage with a 3-2 win. They led 3-0 at one point before the Nationals got solo home runs from Bryce Harper and Asdrubal Cabrera off Hunter Strickland in the seventh inning.
In case you missed it, here’s Harper’s 445-foot moonshot:
Game 2 of this series leads off Saturday’s baseball action with a pitching matchup that features San Francisco’s Tim Hudson and Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann.
The latter, of course, is coming off a no-hitter thrown Sunday that was assisted in large part by outfielder Steven Souza’s outstanding catch:
That capped off a terrific run that began on August 2 in which the 28-year-old went 8-0 over 11 starts with a 1.81 ERA and .524 OPS against.
At the other end of the spectrum is Hudson, whose production has fallen off a cliff over his last 11 trips to the mound in the regular season.
His record over that span was 1-6, and he posted an abysmal 5.68 ERA. Opposing hitters must have been licking their chops considering Hudson gave up an OPS of .811 as well.
Prediction: With the Nationals at home and desperately needing a win to avoid going down 2-0 before heading to the West Coast, their balanced lineup knocks Hudson around while Zimmerman keeps his hot streak alive.
San Francisco 1, Washington 6
Cardinals at Dodgers
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
When: Saturday, October 4
Start Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Watch: MLB Network
Live Stream: MLB.tv
Series Schedule
Another tight opener, but not in the way most people anticipated.
In a clash between aces Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright, fans and pundits alike projected a low-scoring affair. Friday’s game was the complete opposite.
It was a game that featured a bench-clearing altercation instigated by Adrian Gonzalez and Yadier Molina, a 10-9 scoreline and 26 hits:
Kershaw‘s night even set a record, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Game 2 goes Saturday from the City of Angels (and Dodgers, for that matter) and gives the Dodgers a chance to rebound and even the series up quickly.
It’s yet another pitching duel in the making between Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke, per MLB’s official Twitter account:
Both starters enter with an ERA below the 2.75 mark.
If those two can keep the ball down in the zone, we should see a game that resembles a pitchers’ duel more than Game 1.
For the Dodgers, the focus has to be on slowing down the top of the Cardinals order, which trampled them Friday.
Matt Carpenter, Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday combined to go 5-for-13 with three home runs, eight RBI and a walk.
The task isn’t as simple for Lynn, as the Dodgers used their two through six hitters—as well as a four-hit night from catcher A.J. Ellis—to score their nine runs.
With two evenly matched pitchers toeing the rubber Saturday night, this one will come down to which team’s bats can come through.
With the Dodgers possessing more depth in that department, I’d give them the edge.
Prediction: Much like the Nationals, the Dodgers know they can’t drop both games at home to open their best-of-five series. Both pitchers come through and go deep into the game, with Los Angeles’ bats outperforming those of the Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals 2, Los Angeles Dodgers 3
Jon Reid is a correspondent for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @JonReidCSM.
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The 2014 MLB postseason has already brought plenty of intrigue, with several wild finishes taking place. With both matchups on Saturday having their respective Game 1s decided by a single run, expect more of the same.
Insanity ensued on the diamond between the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers, with the Cardinals holding on late for a 10-9 win. That victory came against Clayton Kershaw, as ESPN Stats & Info notes:
In the other National League Division Series, the San Francisco Giants jumped out to an early series lead against the Washington Nationals on the road. The Giants now have a chance to begin another long playoff run, but the Nats have a plethora of talent to contend.
Before the Saturday slate gets underway, here’s a look at predictions for both crucial games. An updated bracket for both division series can be viewed at MLB.com.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Tim Hudson vs. Jordan Zimmermann. Yet another big matchup on the mound between a young Nats pitcher and veteran Giants hurler.
But what many fans will be watching for is another potential tape-measure home run from Bryce Harper. The young phenom put his stamp on the series already, blasting a solo shot that was a career long for him, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Unfortunately, the Nationals’ one through five hitters went a total of 2-for-17 ahead of Harper. In order to change their postseason fate, the offense will need to back up the strong pitching staff.
The Nationals have a wealth of young talent but not a ton of postseason experience. That’s where the Giants have the edge. But even with an early victory for San Francisco, Washington has a chance to turn things around on Saturday.
Expect a more consistent game from the Nats offense and a great game from Zimmermann to push the series to 1-1 heading to the West Coast.
Prediction: Nationals 5, Giants 3
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Much like the other NLDS, this is a matchup of one team that has experienced multiple deep runs in the playoffs against a franchise that hasn’t reached the World Series since 1988. Even with the best pitcher in baseball on the mound, the Dodgers are still 0-1 against the Cardinals.
When the two teams match up again on Saturday night, Zack Greinke will be looking to even the series against Lance Lynn. Scott Miller of Bleacher Report noted the struggles for Greinke against the Cardinals:
Dynamic offenses for both teams mean the two hurlers might have a cushion, but it’s obvious the Cardinals have the mental edge after taking Game 1. Even with a sensational performance by Greinke, St. Louis has the veteran leadership to stage another rally.
Look for another high-scoring game with Lynn holding a 4.81 ERA in the postseason during his career. But if the bats show up for the Cards again, St. Louis will head home with a 2-0 lead and looking to clinch.
Prediction: Cardinals 7, Dodgers 5
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When San Francisco Giants starter Jake Peavy toed the rubber in Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals, he was winless in five postseason starts with an abysmal 9.27 ERA and a fitting 1.925 WHIP.
Well, Peavy and his teammates walked off as winners thanks to his efforts, generally solid relief pitching and timely hitting from Joe Panik, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. It was a huge win for the Giants.
Next up is a Game 2 matchup between Nationals ace Jordan Zimmermann (14-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.072 WHIP) and veteran Giants hurler Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57, 1.231) Saturday afternoon.
Here are some keys for each team to take a critical Game 2.
Keys for the Nationals
Make Tim Hudson Pay for His Mistakes
In the final month of the regular season, Hudson went 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA and a .357/.400/.531 slash line for opposing batters. It wasn’t pretty.
In digging a bit deeper on his player card at BrooksBaseball.net, we see that almost every pitch in his repertoire failed him.
For those of you who may be unfamiliar with what those numbers indicate, it is the batting average on balls that were put in the field of play. What they tell us is that far too many batters squared up Hudson’s offerings over the last month.
There is a certain amount of luck involved, of course, but the bottom line is that Hudson isn’t locating the ball very well. If the Nationals can jump on his mistakes, it could mean an early lead. And with the quality of the Nationals’ pitching staff, early leads are usually held.
Keep Joe Panik Contained
It goes without saying that Zimmermann has to keep Posey, Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval in check during Game 2. For as dangerous as those three can be, however, it will be as important to keep Panik off the basepaths.
He’s been a terror.
Starting on Aug. 2 through the end of the regular season, the second baseman put up a .338/.367/.414 slash line with eight doubles and 25 runs scored. In the wild-card matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he went 3-for-5. And during Game 1 on Friday, he went 2-for-5, driving in one run and scoring another after a huge triple to lead off the seventh inning.
He’s been so good, he’s set a franchise record.
Another thing to keep in mind: In three games at Nationals Park during the regular season, Panik slashed out at .417/.462/.667. Notably, he had a big three-run home run that helped end a 10-game winning streak the Nationals had been on in August.
It won’t just be on the Nationals’ starters, though, as Panik can start a late-inning rally, just as he did in Game 1. It is imperative that the left-handed hitter is off the basepaths throughout the contest.
On the bright side, Panik is 0-for-3 vs. Zimmermann, so if the big right-hander can replicate his past success, the Nationals already have an advantage.
Zimmermann Must Keep the Big Guys Down
We’ve already touched on the need to keep Sandoval, Posey and Pence contained, but two of them are of particular interest to Zimmermann.
Of the three, Sandoval and Pence have given Zimmermann fits over their careers. In 20 at-bats, for example, Pence is slashing out at .400/.455/.700 with two home runs and four RBI. Meanwhile, Sandoval has a .462/.500/.538 slash line with a double in 13 at-bats.
The bottom line is this: If Zimmermann can limit the damage from the players who have historically given him trouble, he will breathe life into the crowd and give confidence to his teammates.
Keys for the Giants
Find a Way to Get to Zimmermann Early—and Often
On Aug. 23, the Giants got off to a 2-0 first-inning lead thanks to a two-run home run by Pence. After that, Zimmermann retired 23 of the next 28 hitters and was in control throughout.
“He didn’t get rattled at all (after the homer),” center fielder Denard Span noted, via CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman. “If anything, it seemed like he just focused a little bit more and buckled down and kept them right there.”
It is what he’s done for the majority of his career.
For the Giants to find success, they need to keep the pressure on. That means working the count and not letting Zimmermann take control of an at-bat. It is easier written than accomplished, to be sure, but it is what must be done.
Keep Denard Span and Anthony Rendon off the Basepaths
Attempting to keep the No. 1 and No. 2 hitters in manager Matt Williams’ lineup off the bases is common sense. After all, the fewer run-scoring opportunities the middle of the Nationals’ batting order has, the better it is for the Giants.
Doing it against Span and Anthony Rendon takes on added value, as Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post explains:
In the postseason, top-of-the-order, all-fields hitters with high on-base percentages, low strikeouts, stolen base speed, bunting guile and hit-and-run creativity often have a better chance to cope with the pitching aces of playoff teams than free swingers who can be neutered by pure swing-and-miss stuff. …
… Both are better base runners than they are sprinters; they get fine jumps, read balls in the air accurately and cut bases sharply with no waste.
They are just dynamic ballplayers.
And since Hudson no longer has “swing-and-miss stuff” he is going to have to locate effectively and change speeds if he hopes to keep them off the bases. For the season, Span scored 94 runs and had a .355 on-base percentage while Rendon scored 111 times and finished with a .351 OBP.
If the Giants can jump on Zimmermann early and hold the top of the order in check, they could very well head to AT&T Park up 2-0 in the best-of-five series. If not, the Nationals may even the NLDS at a game apiece and gain some needed momentum for Game 3.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Game information is courtesy of MLB.com.
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