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Ah, the trade deadline.

It’s that time of year where fans obsessively refresh Twitter and the careers of many baseball players and executives hang in the balance. 

Due to the addition of the second wild card to postseason play, the amount of teams willing to trade off notable pieces has declined. With more teams in the hunt to play in October, there are fewer impact players available on the market that buyers can go after.

That makes this trade deadline rather intriguing in two ways: 1) The teams that are clear sellers know the advantage they have in possessing pieces to deal with a big bounty headed back in return, and 2) there are many more teams interested in acquiring assets to fuel playoff runs.

With limited resources available on the market and increased competition, the trade deadline could be boom or bust. The two highest sellers are big-market teams that don’t need to make moves just for the sake of making a move, while buyers could blanch at high prices, which would freeze the trade market. On the flip side, sellers could have no trouble finding a trade package they like out of the varied options available to them.

Here are the five teams most likely to be aggressive heading into July 31, trade deadline day.

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As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the pressure is on for teams to bolster their organizations for the final push to the postseason.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, who hold the American League‘s second wild-card spot and only trail the Baltimore Orioles by 2.5 games, adding another bat to solidify their lineup was of paramount importance.

Would it be a second baseman like Chase Utley, Daniel Murphy or a versatile utility man like Martin Prado or Ben Zobrist?

The answer is none of the above.

According to John Lott of the National Post, the Jays have acquired third baseman Danny Valencia from the Kansas City Royals for catcher Erik Kratz and pitcher Liam Hendriks.

Valencia isn’t an everyday player, but he has made a name for himself hitting left-handed pitching very well. On the flip side, his reduction in OPS from .888 in 2013 to .710 this year, as well as the drop in his OPS+ from 138 (very good) to 95 (below average) are somewhat concerning.

So what does this move mean for the Jays moving forward?

The Jays are Likely to Use a Platoon at Third Base

With Valencia being a southpaw specialist (.354/.386/.492 slash line in 63 at-bats this season) and Juan Francisco lighting up right-handed pitching (.265/.336/.587 slash line in 189 at-bats), it seems like GM Alex Anthopoulos opted to acquire someone on the cheap who could form a dynamic partnership with one of his team’s current players.

It’s hard to see Valencia getting many at-bats against righties or Francisco hitting against lefties from this point forward.

And considering the fact that Valencia hasn’t played more than 10 games anywhere other than third base or as a designated hitter, one would think that this platoon will man the hot corner for the rest of the season.

Which means…

Brett Lawrie Will Take Over at Second Base Upon his Return

It may not be his preferred position, but it’s hard to see Brett Lawrie playing anywhere but second base once he recovers from injury and returns to the Blue Jays.

Between Valencia playing almost exclusively at third base, Francisco’s range making it hard to play him at second and Lawrie being such an incredible athlete, the writing is on the wall.

The question becomes how Lawrie reacts.

He’s known to be an emotional player, and if he’s not content playing full time at second base, it’s very possible that his performance could suffer.

Toronto is Confident its Returning Bats are Good Enough to Carry Them

With all the talk surrounding the Jays needing a boost to their lineup if they want to contend for the postseason, the returns of the aforementioned Lawrie, as well as Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind, seem to have been lost in the shuffle.

Despite his recent setback, Encarnacion has been taking ground balls and doing light running drills in Florida.

If the Jays can add all three bats to their batting order in the next few weeks, they could return to being the force they were early on in the regular season.

If those three aren’t as close to returning as management had hoped, however, this kind of move could also signal that the Jays may not have much payroll flexibility, and bringing in a platoon-type player is all the team could afford.

Those concerns could be offset by another acquisition, but that doesn’t seem very likely.

All statistics obtained courtesy of ESPN.com and Baseball-Reference.com.

Jon Reid is a contributor for Bleacher Report. Follow him on twitter @JonReidCSM.

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With the MLB trade deadline approaching in two days, speculation surrounding the biggest names on the market figures to reach a fever pitch shortly. With tight races in five of the six divisions, the plethora of teams in contention should create a seller’s market for the organizations that have decided to build for the future.

Though the trade deadline has brought duds in recent years, this summer offers the promise of marquee All-Stars potentially on the move. Of course, not all the noise will result in tangible action. But as the Oakland Athletics showed when they acquired Jeff Samardzija, a team willing to pay for immediate dividends can drastically alter the complexion of the pennant race.

So which teams could follow Oakland’s footsteps and forge a consequential move of their own? Digging through the noise, here are a few rumors surrounding former All-Stars that could come to fruition over the next 48 hours.

Tulo in Beantown?

Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has been the biggest name available for the past few weeks, but seemingly nothing imminent has emerged. However, The Boston Globe‘s Pete Abraham reported of a source indicating Tulowitzki’s willingness to move north:

As splashy as that move sounds, Tulowitzki would be a bizarre acquisition for the Red Sox. Boston general manager Ben Cherington recently waved the white flag on his team’s title defense after a five-game losing streak against AL East opponents. Moreover, with Xander Bogaerts openly pining to return to shortstop, acquiring Tulowitzki would likely alienate the Sox’s brightest young star.

There’s also the matter of Tulowitzki being currently on the disabled list with a hip flexor strain. For all his talents, the shortstop has a checkered injury history, and the Red Sox demonstrated a refusal to commit big money to a similar player when they allowed Jacoby Ellsbury to walk in the offseason.

Tulowitzki seems highly unlikely to move anywhere at all. It’s unclear whether or not the Rockies will return to contender status while Tulo remains in his prime, but Colorado does not appear inclined to move the face of their franchise.

Price Staying or Going?

Even with a recent winning streak, the Tampa Bay Rays remain 7.5 games out of first place in the AL East and have five teams ahead of them in the race for the second wild-card berth. Thus, ace starter David Price remains firmly on the market.

The winning streak would seemingly have diminished the chances of Price moving, considering the day-to-day snap judgments front offices must make about buying or selling. However, The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo relayed an opinion from one anonymous scout who believed that Price would still move:

‘I still think when push comes to shove, the Rays will deal him,’ opined one National League special adviser. ‘They’ve come a long way to get to this point and they’re still five or six games under .500. How much longer can they sustain that? So it’s a tough call and you don’t want to be perceived as waving the white flag, but there’s demand for him.’

It’s unclear who would pay the exorbitant price (no pun intended) the Rays have demanded. The Los Angeles Dodgers have long been linked to Price, and Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi piggybacked on the speculation of Price moving to the NL West:

But the Dodgers could find themselves pursuing Lester. Given the Red Sox’s clearer intentions to sell, as well as Lester likely coming with a lower price tag, the Dodgers could very well abandon their pursuit of Price. 

A darkhorse team like the Seattle Mariners or Chicago Cubs could still swipe Price away. However, given how difficult it is for the Rays to contend on their shoestring budget, retaining a modicum of postseason hope might be the wisest route.

Papelbon’s Ultimatum

The Philadelphia Phillies appear on the verge of removing themselves from delusions of contending and selling off their veteran roster. Veteran closer Jonathan Papelbon would seem like a prime candidate to go, but according to the New York Post‘s Joel Sherman, the 33-year-old is also ready to exercise his no-trade clause:

The Phillies’ hurdles in trading Jonathan Papelbon only grow higher and higher.

And then there is this: Papelbon has a no-trade clause and has let the Phillies know he will not accept a trade to a place where he will be a setup man or in a shared closer situation. It is closing or nothing.

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers loomed as two contenders in need of bullpen relief, but both have ameliorated those issues with Huston Street and Joakim Soria, respectively. Moreover, with four earned runs allowed in his past five appearances, Papelbon is not making himself particularly enticing to scouts:

The Dodgers (again) have been connected to Papelbon in the past according to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles (h/t NJ.com’s Randy Miller), and the desire for bullpen help remains in Los Angeles. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that the Phillies would be willing to eat some of the $18 million remaining on Papelbon’s contract to facilitate a deal. However, given the Dodgers’ bottomless pockets, that is simply chump change that would do little to pique their interest.

If the Phillies are genuine about rebuilding, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Chase Utley would probably return enough to jumpstart their uninspiring farm system. Unfortunately, all three have no-trade clauses, making significant change an unlikely proposition for the last-place Phillies.

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The Seattle Mariners made their first move of the trade-deadline season on Thursday, acquiring Kendrys Morales from the Minnesota Twins.

Greg Johns of MLB.com confirms that the Mariners sent reliever Stephen Pryor to the Twins in exchange for Morales:

Morales isn’t an impact bat, but he should be able to provide a slight improvement as a designated hitter at a low cost. It’s a sensible move for the Mariners to make, albeit a weird one after Morales rejected multiple contracts from the team in the offseason, including a $14.1 million qualifying offer.

Best-case scenario, Morales shakes off the rust from his late start to the season and matches his numbers from last year for the rest of the season. If Morales doesn’t turn it around, the Mariners are no worse off than before, either this year or for the future, as they didn’t give up much value to get him.

Morales signed with the Twins after the MLB draft, as he would no longer come at the cost of a compensation pick. Since debuting on June 9, Morales has hit .234/.359/.325 with just one home run.

Those numbers aren’t going to help Seattle’s woeful DH situation, so the Mariners are hoping Morales’ slow start is due to rust from not having a spring training. Morales has been a little better since July 7, raising his season average from .219 and collecting six doubles in that span.

The Mariners need Morales to hit well right away. Seattle is 2-5 since the All-Star break and has lost control of the second AL wild-card spot, as Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times highlights:

If Morales can even get close to his 118 wRC+ of last year over the rest of the season, the Mariners will be quite happy with the trade. With Michael Saunders out, Seattle has two healthy regulars in the lineup with wRC+ marks over the league average of 100.

Lloyd McClendon said that Morales can at least give some flexibility to a lineup that has been counting on Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager to do everything, via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

“He’s a professional hitter. He gives us the opportunity to stretch out our lineup, so to speak. He’s a nice fit, switch-hitter, hitting behind Robbie (Cano). … He gives us options, what we want to do with (Kyle) Seager, where we want to hit him. I like it,” he said.

Even if Morales continues to struggle, he comes at a low price. Pryor has upside, but he has not pitched well in Triple-A this season while recovering from major lat surgery.

The big concern is about Pryor’s velocity. His fastball currently sits at around 92 mph after averaging 96.2 in the 2012 season before the injury, according to FanGraphs.

Pryor could get healthy and become an effective reliever once again, but he wouldn’t have been an upgrade over anyone in the deep Mariners bullpen. Barring multiple injuries, Pryor wasn’t going to pitch again in the majors this year, as prospect Carson Smith is also waiting in Triple-A.

Morales’ addition will likely cost at-bats for Corey Hart as the team’s primary DH. Hart has been unable to get going after missing all of last season in addition to a lengthy stint on the disabled list earlier this year.

As a switch-hitter, Morales will likely be in the lineup every day as the DH. He has been considerably better against right-handers in his career, so a platoon with Jesus Montero (career .827 OPS versus left-handers) would make some sense, but the Mariners don’t seem too keen on giving Montero playing time.

Morales could potentially start at first base against lefties, although he is awful defensively. Johns confirmed that the current plan is to platoon Hart and Logan Morrison at first, with Morales playing if needed.

The only way this trade could hurt the Mariners is if they get complacent and make no other moves, as Morales is not enough on his own to key a playoff run. That doesn’t seem to be the case, as Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reports that Seattle asked about outfielder Drew Stubbs on Thursday:

Morales should offer a slight improvement at basically no cost to the Mariners. It’s not a flashy impact trade, but it makes sense.

All stats via FanGraphs.com, unless otherwise noted.

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A year or two ago, Chase Headley would have fetched a king’s ransom in a trade. That was not the case on Tuesday.

The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres agreed to send the third baseman to the Bronx, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:

The Yankees will also receive $1 million in cash considerations from the Pads. They will ship third baseman Yangervis Solarte and Single-A pitching prospect Rafael De Paula out to California in return.

Upon learning of the trade, Headley thanked the Pads while expressing his excitement at joining the Yankees:

Headley is playing well below his capabilities in 2014, batting .229 with seven home runs and 32 RBI. He has only walked 22 times and has an on-base percentage under .300 and an OPS of just .651.

On a positive note, Headley has been hitting well of late. He has a .323 average for the month of June, belting four doubles, one home run and nine RBI. Back issues bothered Headley throughout the season, but he is now healthy and appears to be turning his season around. He will be a free agent after the season.

Moving to Yankee Stadium alone should help Headley boost his stats. Petco Park is a notorious pitcher’s park, whereas the Bronx offers the switch-hitting Headley a short right field porch.

Even if he does not hit, Headley will improve the team’s defense, as he is one of the best third basemen in the league. He ranks second in defensive WAR among members of the hot corner and is third in defensive runs saved. He won a Gold Glove in 2012.

Headley had his best year that season, when he batted .286 with 31 doubles, 31 home runs and 115 RBI. He won a Silver Slugger and finished fifth in the MVP voting.

As important as Headley could be, it should also be noted that the Yankees did not part with any major pieces.

Solarte was good at times this season and terrible at others. He hit .254 with six homers and 31 RBI. He was demoted at one point. Meanwhile, De Paula is no one to lose sleep over. The 23-year-old is 6-5 with a 4.15 ERA in 20 games for the Single-A Tampa Yankees.

There was once a time when Headley would have commanded a team’s top prospects, but the Yankees got this deal done without including any such players. Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Rob Refsnyder, Peter O’Brien and others will remain with the organization, while the Yankees have brought in someone whom they think could be a big-time addition to their team.

The Bombers’ farm system has been particularly weak these past few years, so it is nice to see New York making a concerted effort to hang on to its better young players when star players are not being offered in return.

The Yankees are hopeful Headley can be a fraction of the hitter he once was, but if not, then they didn’t give up much to bring him in. It is a low-risk, high-reward situation for New York.

All stats were obtained via Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

Question or comments? Feel free to follow me on Twitter @GPhillips2727 to talk New York Yankees and Major League Baseball.

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Despite an injury-plagued first half of the season for the New York Yankees, the team is still very much in the American League East race, and it appears they will be buyers at this season’s trade deadline.

The team pulled the trigger on a trade for San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley on Tuesday afternoon, sealing the first of what could be a number of upcoming deals.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports was the first to break the news, with the terms of the trade coming shortly thereafter:

The two players going the other way in the deal and mentioned only by last name are early-season hero Yangervis Solarte and High-A pitcher Rafael De Paula.

De Paula, a 23-year-old right-hander, was ranked as the Yankees’ No. 15 prospect heading into the season, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.

With the Padres kicking in $1 million in the deal, the Yankees will only be on the hook to pay Headley $2.97 million for the remainder of the season.

“It’s bittersweet,” Headley told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “On one hand, there’s not many people in the game who get to play in one organization for as long as I did. I loved every second in San Diego, all positive memories. But on the same token, I’m excited to move on to a team in a race right now.”

This is the definition of a low-risk, high-reward deal, as the Yankees are hoping a change of scenery and a chance to play for a contender can awaken the player Headley was during the second half of the 2012 season.

For those unaware of his studly second-half exploits that year, they are worth recapping one more time.

After a so-so first half in which he hit .267/.368/.413 with eight home runs and 42 RBI, Headley exploded for a .308/.386/.592 line that included 23 home runs and 73 RBI in 75 games after the All-Star break.

Headley led the National League in RBI, won a Silver Slugger award and finished fifth in NL MVP voting, making him one of the most talked-about names of the offseason trade market heading into 2013.

In the end, the Padres opted against moving him or re-signing him, something they could afford to do with Headley under team control for two more seasons at that point.

Not giving him a big-money extension proved to be a brilliant move. The same can’t be said for the decision not to sell high, as it may go down as one of the franchise’s biggest regrets since they shipped a shortstop by the name of Ozzie Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals in 1981.

After battling injuries during spring training, Headley was never able to get things going at the plate last year. He finished the season with a .250/.347/.400 line with 13 home runs and 50 RBI in 520 at-bats. The Padres decided to hold on to him this past offseason in the hopes that he could rebuild some value in a contract year.

Headley hasn’t been able to increase his trade value, and the Yankees saw an opportunity to buy low.

With Alex Rodriguez suspended for the year and a thin free-agent market at third base, the team opened the year with the aforementioned Solarte seeing the bulk of playing time at the hot corner. When he inevitably cooled down, the team turned to the versatile Kelly Johnson as their primary third baseman. All told, the cumulative production at the position has not been great.

Those numbers may not seem overly terrible, but when you take away the first two months of the season in which Solarte hit .299/.369/.466 with six home runs, 26 RBI and 22 runs, the production at the position has been minimal in June and July.

On the surface, it may not seem like Headley is much of an upgrade.

The 30-year-old is hitting just .229/.296/.355 with seven home runs and 32 RBI on the year, good for an 88 OPS+. However, he is batting .323 with six extra-base hits in 15 games this month, and the move to Yankee Stadium could certainly help the switch-hitting Headley.

“I think he can deliver the long ball and I think this ballpark is more conducive to that than where he came from, but I think he’s a guy who can impact you offensively with his plate discipline and his batting average,” GM Brian Cashman said, via Lou DiPietro of YES Network. “Chase is a switch-hitter who can spray the ball all over the place, and that’s what he’s been doing; I don’t see him as a big thumper, but he’s an upgrade.”

One would think the spacious Petco Park could be to blame for his limited production, as Cashman suggested, but he actually put up a higher OPS at home in 2013 (.763 vs. .731) and has done so again this year (.660 vs. 643).

Still, leaving the worst offense in baseball has to be a welcome move for Headley. The Yankees have not exactly lit the world on fire at the plate this year themselves, but entering play on Tuesday they have still scored 100 more runs this season than the Padres.

Even if Headley continues to be subpar at the plate, he still represents a significant upgrade for the team defensively in an infield that could certainly use the help.

Both Johnson and Solarte came up as second basemen and did an admirable job filling in, but there is little doubt Headley is a better option with the glove.

The Yankees have now acquired both Headley and right-hander Brandon McCarthy in July, and chances are they are not done dealing.

The latest rumor has them attached to Chicago White Sox left-hander, John Danks, according to Heyman. The need for starting pitching is obvious with Hiroki Kuroda the only member of the Opening Day rotation still standing.

Through it all, the Yankees are still just four games back in the AL East standings and 2.5 games back for the second wild-card spot.

If Headley can come in and make an impact anywhere near what Alfonso Soriano did when he was acquired from the Chicago Cubs last July, it would go a long way toward making them serious contenders.

One thing is for sure: After spending nearly $500 million to shore up the roster this past offseason, the last thing this Yankees team wants to do is miss the postseason for a second straight season.

*All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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With a mere nine days remaining until the MLB trade deadline on July 31, rumors are swirling around multiple contenders and pretenders around the league.

A few surprise teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers are well outside of the mix and looking to move veteran players. Then there are franchises looking to make the postseason this year hoping to add those valuable assets.

As several division races heat up, the time is now for teams to make a move that can help them. Teams like the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates are on the outside looking in with a chance to contend.

Here’s a look at the latest rumors surrounding some of the biggest trade prospects in the MLB.

Winning Affecting Possible David Price Move for Rays

For a team like the Rays, this has been a disappointing season thus far. But with a five-game winning streak, all seems back to normal in Tampa Bay, right? Wrong.

Two straight series wins over the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins before and after the All-Star break would appear to be a great sign for the Rays. Unfortunately, all it has done is complicate matters for the franchise and David Price, in particular.

Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) provides the latest on rumors about the starting pitcher:

The Rays will factor many things into their decision as to whether to trade Price, including their place in the standings, how well they are playing, their need for prospects and Price’s trade value, which gradually slides downward as he nears free agency. But one executive involved in the conversations with Tampa Bay believes that, ultimately, it’s the potential buyers that will clarify the choice for the Rays with the quality of their offers. 

Will he stay or will he go? That’s the question Tampa Bay must answer before July 31 while they also look to climb back into the AL East race.

Currently fourth in the division at 47-53, the Rays still have a shot to overtake every other team in the East. The Baltimore Orioles currently hold the lead but are without injured Matt Wieters, and the New York Yankees have question marks with Masahiro Tanaka.

Basically, what the decision will come down to now is simply how aggressive teams are in trying to acquire Price. The former Cy Young winner has been nearly flawless during July, pitching 31.2 innings over four starts while allowing just three earned runs, including his last two scoreless starts.

Making a swap for Price won’t be easy, and it clearly won’t be a given anymore with the Rays winning again. With Wil Myers reporting progress with his wrist injury and Chris Archer pitching well in three of his last four starts, the Rays have youth to get back into the chase.

Whether or not Price will be a part of that climb will be decided by July 31.

Alex Rios Among Potential Targets for Royals

He might not be showing the same power from years prior, but Alex Rios has still been a consistent force at the plate this season.

Unfortunately, his offensive prowess has been on the Texas Rangers, a team that was 3-14 during the month of July. That makes them dealers on the trade market and fifth in the AL West.

For the Kansas City Royals, the team is trying to make a push for their first postseason berth since winning the World Series in 1985. With a slumping offense, the Royals apparently have interest in Rios, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:

The Royals are looking for corner bats as they try to fix their offensive woes and get back into the AL Central race, and Rangers right fielder Alex Rios is one player they’ve considered.

Kansas City is 14th in the AL with a .687 OPS and 12th with 388 runs, so it understands it needs some help.

Heyman goes on to say that the Royals are also interested in other options like Marlon Byrd and Domonic Brown, but Rios is a clear option for the team. With his consistency at the plate, the Rangers slugger might just be what Kansas City needs in the lineup.

Looking for their first playoff berth in nearly 20 years, the Royals will still have to overtake both the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians. Following a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox, Kansas City might be another fringe team like the Rays when the deadline comes.

A.J. Burnett Drawing Interest from Pirates

On the heels of a three-game winning streak, the Pirates are right back in the thick of the NL Central race. If they plan on overtaking both the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals along with holding off the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh will need help in the starting rotation.

Help might just be on the way in the form of a familiar face, as Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reports:

During his two seasons with the Pirates, Burnett finished with a 26-21 record and never saw his ERA rise above 3.51 either year. He also collected over 180 strikeouts both seasons as he returned to form after three down seasons with the Yankees.

If the Pirates truly do have interest, it could wind up being huge for both sides. Burnett is currently on a Philadelphia Phillies team that is nowhere near a playoff spot and Pittsburgh needs help to get there.

While several other teams might be looking to add Burnett, the familiarity of Pittsburgh might be just what both sides need.

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Superstar players generally steal the headlines at the trade deadline, and this year is no different with guys like David Price, Cole Hamels, Ben Zobrist and Alex Rios receiving the bulk of the attention.

That being said, there are always at least a few under-the-radar moves made in July that wind up as notable differences for contenders.

The Detroit Tigers’ addition of Jose Veras, the Atlanta Braves’ addition of Elliot Johnson and the Tampa Bay Rays’ addition of David DeJesus come to mind as significant deals from a year ago.

With this year’s deadline just over a week away, here is a look at 10 underrated MLB trade targets that could make a difference down the stretch here in 2014.

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With the 2014 Major League Baseball trade deadline quickly approaching, the Cleveland Indians find themselves in a curious position. The team is currently three games over .500 and 4.5 games back of the division-leading Detroit Tigers.

The Tribe has just a two-game deficit between them and the final American League wild-card spot, but there are some major flaws to be addressed, most notably in the starting rotation and on the bench.

The rotation has undoubtedly been the Indians’ biggest issue. Indians’ pitchers with at least one start under their belt have combined for some ghastly numbers this year.

Some of the rankings are palatable, however, and it’s important to note that the team is currently working with a starting group that includes exactly one member of the opening-day rotation.

Corey Kluber, the Tribe’s perceived No. 2—or 1A, if you please—for opening day has really cemented himself as a fringe-candidate for “ace” status, but he alone can’t carry the rotation. On opening day, it was assumed that Justin Masterson would work as the team’s No. 1 starter, but as the numbers indicate, he’s been anything but a reliable option, even when fully healthy.

Zach McAllister, who pitched well in 2013 and to start the year in 2014, has struggled mightily, and has even spent time at Triple-A Columbus due to performance-related issues. 

So the need for another starter has arisen.

The club could choose to promote Danny Salazar and utilize him as a starter for the rest of the season, but if his 4.7 BB/9 at Triple-A are any indication, he still hasn’t figured anything out.

At this point, the only way to address the starting-rotation headache is through a trade. A number of starting pitchers figure to be available, including Jake Peavy, Jorge De La Rosa, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon and David Price.

Price is likely out of the Indians’ reach. The Rays would demand a package including Danny Salazar and Francisco Lindor. The Indians may be able to counter with a package built around Salazar and Clint Frazier and another mid-level pitching prospect, but the bargaining would likely end there.

The team would then have to turn to a second-tier options, like Peavy, De La Rosa, Burnett or Colon. Of the group De La Rosa and Colon are the best fits, but Colon offers the team the best of both worlds, those being production and an extra year of club control.

So, we’ve arrived at a target: Bartolo Colon. It’s like the LeBron James homecoming.

Well, not really. But it’s the next best thing, right?

Colon has been unspectacular, but solid at times. His four most recent starts have seen his ERA rise from 3.67 to 4.12. However, leaving New York could be a good move for the 41-year-old righty.

Colon is under contract through the 2015 season at a rate of $10 million per season. The Mets willingness to absorb some of his remaining salary will ultimately determine the return package they receive.

If the Mets are willing to make the acquisition slightly more affordable for the Indians—who are unlikely to take on a player worth $10 million next year or for the remainder of this season—then the Indians could put together a trade package including two mid-level pitching prospects like Adam Plutko and Shawn Morimando.

A more likely scenario involves the Indians making a swap of Asdrubal Cabrera for Bartolo Colon.

The Mets are in need of a shortstop, and while it’s likely they would rather get a younger, more permanent solution, Cabrera is signable from the Mets’ point of view and is still just 28 years old. Even if the team decided to let Cabrera walk at the end of the 2014 season, the Mets would benefit from some salary relief.

Since there is no salary relief on the Indians’ end in this scenario, the Mets would also chip in a pitching prospect to complement Colon.

The best and most realistic option for the Mets is 21-year-old righty Gabriel Ynoa. Ynoa has the opportunity to develop into a back-end rotation option, but his future will be determined by the development of his slider.

His primary offering, a low-90s sinker, is a solidly average offering. His second-best offering is a plus-plus changeup that has outstanding fading action and can work very well at the big league level.

Ynoa‘s breaking ball is less developed. He’s inconsistent with the arm action and release point associated with the pitch, but should it become a more consistent offering, the Dominican Republic native should have no problems slotting into the back of the Indians’ rotation by the 2016 season.

Another important factor in this deal is the spot that would be cleared for Francisco Lindor. The Indians’ top prospect is knocking on the door for a promotion, and has averaged a .281/.352/.389 batting line over 387 at-bats this year. 

In addition to his solid slash line, Lindor boasts 22 extra-base hits, 48 RBI, 51 runs scored and 25 stolen bases. The 20-year-old would also provide the Indians with an enormous defensive upgrade, as he’s one of the best defensive shortstops at any level of professional baseball.

The deal presents the the Indians with a win-win scenario. Colon isn’t the best option on the open market, but he’s easily attainable. In addition to the upgrade the rotation would receive, the team can get value out of Asdrubal Cabrera while clearing room for one of the top prospects in the game to make his mid-season debut.

Final Deal

Indians Get: Bartolo Colon and Gabriel Ynoa

Mets Get: Asdrubal Cabrera

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With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline rapidly approaching, the question on everyone’s mind is whether the Tampa Bay Rays will trade David Price.

Should the Rays deal the Cy Young Award-winning left-hander, they are likely to receive a bounty of young talent (mostly prospects) in return. The team that acquires Price should get a big boost heading toward the playoffs.

However, as you’ll see in the case studies below, trades are not always even.

Houston Astros Acquire Randy Johnson (July 31, 1998)

The Mariners parted with The Big Unit at the 1998 trade deadline, sending him to the Astros in exchange for Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia and John Halama.

Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA and four complete-game shutouts in 11 starts and guided the Astros to an NL Central title. They went on to lose to the Padres in the NLDS, with Kevin Brown out-dueling Johnson in the series opener.

Guillen was called up by the Mariners a little more than a month after the trade and went on to post a 25.9 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) over 14 seasons.

Garcia debuted the following season as a 22-year-old, and the right-hander opened eyes by finishing second and ninth in the AL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award voting, respectively. He pitched for seven different teams over 15 seasons in the major leagues and finished his career with 2,264 innings pitched and a 32.7 WAR.

Halama posted a 7.2 WAR and played for seven different teams over parts of nine seasons. Overall, the three players combined for 27.7 wins during their time with the Mariners.

Milwaukee Brewers Acquire CC Sabathia (July 7, 2008) 

If you want a shining example of how a midseason blockbuster trade can improve a team’s chances of reaching the postseason, then look no further than the Brewers’ acquisition of CC Sabathia from the Indians in 2008.

The Brewers had a 50-40 record and were four games back in the NL Central when they traded for Sabathia, who was set to become a free agent following the season.

The left-hander gave it everything he had down the stretch, even with a big contract on the line. He went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA, throwing seven complete games and registering three shutouts in just 17 starts.

No one will ever forget when he started on three days’ rest with the season on the line and pitched the Brewers to their first postseason appearance since 1982. It speaks to Sabathia’s utter dominance that he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting despite only playing a half-season in the league.

Back in 2012, J.P. Breen of FanGraphs helped put Sabathia’s remarkable performance in perspective:

Ultimately, the trade allowed the Brewers to upgrade from Seth McClung to CC Sabathia in the starting rotation. McClung held his own as an emergency starter, posting a 4.24 ERA in the rotation that year, but the overall upgrade for the organization was likely three or four wins. Sabathia was worth +4.6 WAR during his stint with the Brewers. It was one of the more impressive stretches on the mound in recent years. In fact, of pitchers who threw at least 100 innings during the 2008 season, only 18 pitchers compiled more than +4.6 WAR over the entire season.

The Indians received three prospects in return for Sabathia, including Matt LaPorta (Milwaukee’s first-round pick from the previous year). However, LaPorta never panned out for the Tribe, as he produced a dismal minus-1.4 WAR in 291 career games before his release following the 2013 season.

The other big name in the deal was outfielder Michael Brantley, who arguably has been the Indians’ best player this season and was selected to his first All-Star Game nearly six years after the trade.

Philadelphia Phillies Acquire Cliff Lee (July 29, 2009)

The Phillies won their second NL title in as many years in 2009 before losing to the Yankees in the World Series, though it’s doubtful they would have made it that far without Cliff Lee.

The Phillies landed Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco a few days before the trade deadline. They dealt Jason Knapp (currently at the High-A level in the Rangers system after four years away from the game), Carlos Carrasco (2.0 WAR over five seasons with the Indians), Jason Donald (0.5 WAR over three MLB seasons) and Lou Marson (2.7 WAR over five MLB seasons).

Lee went 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and three complete games (one shutout) in 12 starts after joining the Phillies. More importantly, the veteran left-hander went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and two complete games in five postseason starts.

After the season, Lee walked via free agency and signed with the Seattle Mariners, though he wouldn’t be long for the West Coast.

Texas Rangers Acquire Cliff Lee (July 9, 2010)

After seeing what Lee did for the Phillies, the Rangers decided to trade for the then-31-year-old several weeks before the actual deadline. They acquired Lee and right-hander Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson.

Smoak and Beavan are the only players still with the Mariners, though the former has struggled to the tune of a 0.1 WAR over the last five seasons. 

Beavan has bounced between the rotation and bullpen, posting a 4.61 ERA and 0.6 WAR over 293 total innings.

Lueke also saw considerably time out of the Mariners bullpen before he was traded to the Rays in 2012—where he’s currently stationed in Triple-A—and Lawson failed to reach the major leagues.

Amazingly, Lee was better post-trade deadline in 2010 than he was the previous year. He registered a 3.98 ERA and 3.2 WAR over 15 starts and helped the Rangers reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.

Lee was phenomenal during the division and championship series, winning each of his three starts and registering a 0.75 ERA. However, he struggled in the Fall Classic against the Giants, as he pitched to a disappointing 6.94 ERA and lost both starts.

The Giants ultimately defeated the Rangers in five games.

San Francisco Giants Acquire Carlos Beltran (July 28, 2011)

The Giants had high expectations in 2011 after winning the Word Series in 2010, so it was understandable when they traded for Carlos Beltran from the Mets. However, the two-month rental cost the Giants a promising young arm in Zack Wheeler, the team’s first-round draft pick from 2009.

Beltran played very well for the Giants over 44 games, batting .323/.369/.551 with seven home runs before landing on the disabled list in August with a hand injury. However, his performance alone wasn’t enough to get the team back into the postseason. The Giants went 25-31 over the rest of the season and finished eight games out.

Looking back on the trade several years later, Giants manager Bruce Bochy maintained that trading for Beltran was still the right move even though the team failed to reach the postseason (via Adam Rubin of ESPN New York):

But I think any time you have a chance to win the World Series [you go for it] — which we did in ’10, we made a move, and 2012 we made some moves, and it worked out and we ended up getting rings on our finger because of it. That’s something a lot of clubs do. Unfortunately, we just didn’t have the bats to quite get us there [in 2011].

Beltran left via free agency after the season and signed with the Cardinals. Wheeler, meanwhile, has blossomed into one of the better young starting pitchers in the game and represents a key piece of the Mets’ future.

The 24-year-old right-hander is quietly having a strong first full season in the major leagues, with a 3.78 ERA and 8.82 K/9 over 20 starts.

Los Angeles Angels Acquire Zack Greinke (July 27, 2012)

The Los Angeles Angels went all-in when they traded for Zack Greinke in 2012, the first year that featured a wild card play-in game.

The right-hander did everything he could to help the Halos reach the postseason, going 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts. The team ultimately came up short by dropping the final series of the season against the A’s.

In return for Greinke, the Brewers received a loaded prospect package comprised of shortstop Jean Segura as well as right-handers Ariel Pena and Johnny Hellweg.

Segura obviously was the big piece in the deal, as the 24-year-old was named to his first All-Star team as a rookie in 2013. Hellweg, who’s seen time in the major leagues but underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring, and Pena both have bright futures in the bullpen.

Conclusions

The six trades outlined suggest that a team willing to risk its long-term future is more likely to reach the postseason.

Both Randy Johnson and CC Sabathia guided their respective teams to appearances in the NLDS, while Cliff Lee played a major role in helping the Phillies and Rangers reach the World Series in back-to-back years.

Greinke and Beltran represent the exceptions to the theory. They played well following their respective trades but failed to reach the postseason. That being said, both players still improved their teams’ chances of reaching the playoffs and at least kept them in contention down the stretch.

However, history says that it’s hit or miss when it comes to trading prospects for high-profile talents.

For example, trading Randy Johnson to the Astros in 1998 netted the Mariners two future All-Stars in Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen. The same goes for the Brewers’ and Indians’ respective acquisitions of Jean Segura and Michael Brantley.

But not every prospects-for-star trade works out for both sides. The Indians and Phillies both came up empty with the prospect packages they received for Cliff Lee. None of the players involved in those trades developed into replacement-level talents.

Therefore, it makes sense for a team in the playoff hunt to potentially sacrifice its future for short-term success, provided that it fits the organization’s timeline. 

As we all know, however, agreeing to and executing a trade of that nature is easier said than done.

*All stats courtesy of either Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs.

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