Kuzul

I have seen some rejoicing by Nats fans over Adam LaRoche’s new deal with the team. While two years at roughly eight million dollars each seems reasonable for him, I am not convinced he is as good an upgrade at first base as he is often regarded.

Two points stand in his favor: when compared to the departing Adam Dunn, LaRoche is not an atrocious fielder, and he hits for a decent average.

The second point is not really much of a point because LaRoche has been much worse at reaching base than Dunn throughout his career. In addition, swapping the two is more or less choosing between ten extra home runs or ten extra doubles, except the doubles guy doesn’t walk as much.

Both players have at least 3,800 plate appearances to their name (Dunn has over 6,000), so that’s enough of a sample size to simply be able to look at the two stats side by side. LaRoche’s .271 career average is 21 points higher than Dunn’s, but his OBP is .339 (42 points lower than Dunn). So, while LaRoche has been more likely to make contact with the ball and get on base that way, Dunn has been better overall at not making an out.

LaRoche has walked a little more than nine percent of the time in his career, a figure that spiked to around 10 percent when he was the only good hitter on the Pirates for almost three years. Dunn’s walk rate was a career-low 11.9 percent in 2010 though he has never really had any significant protection in a lineup. Dunn has five seasons of 100 or more unintentional walks. LaRoche only managed 60 walks twice in parts of seven seasons.

A lot of people might site Adam Dunn as someone who would have been pitched around a lot whereas Adam LaRoche probably would not have been. Both played for some bad teams. If pitchers were afraid of either of these hitters, there was often no reason to pitch to them. While LaRoche did tend to see a slightly higher percentage of pitches in the zone, he also tended to swing at more pitches out of the zone.

Percentage of pitches in strike zone from 2004 to 2010:

LaRoche: 56.4, 50.7, 50.7, 48.1, 49.9, 45.8, 44.8

Dunn: 51.9, 49.3, 48.7, 47.3, 45.5, 45.6, 41.4

For his career, LaRoche has seen 48.8 percent of his pitches in the zone. Dunn has seen 47.1 percent of his. This is not a significant enough difference to account for a difference of roughly eight percent in their career walk rates. So, I would conclude that both hitters have been pitched around a bit due to spending time on bad teams.

While Dunn clearly has the better eye, both strike out plenty. Last year, for the Diamondbacks, LaRoche struck out 172 times. Remind you of anyone?

As we know, making contact, even if it isn’t as likely to be a home run, still leaves open the possibility of making a productive out. So we cannot tip the scales entirely in Dunn’s favor. If the Nationals are able to get Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, and Ryan Zimmerman on base, Adam LaRoche may find himself in a lot of situations where he just needs a fly ball or a grounder to the right side.

So, while LaRoche has been better at making contact throughout his career, he hit only one point higher than Dunn in 2010. I do believe .260 was probably Dunn’s ceiling (and I put him down at .250 or so in 2011) and .261 is probably something of an off-year for LaRoche (I’d put him around .275) but this isn’t Ichiro vs. Andruw Jones.

Power-wise, the two just aren’t in the same class. Adam Dunn averaged just over 39 home runs over the past five years. LaRoche averaged just over 25. Both players were in their prime (they were born three days apart), and the difference in home ballparks probably can’t account for the entire fourteen home run difference.

Fangraphs tells me Adam Dunn is actually faster than Adam LaRoche. Neither should be expected to steal any non-defensive-indifference bases, but perhaps LaRoche is going to clog the bases even more than Dunn has. This is, perhaps, a minor complaint since both were brought in with the task of driving in Nyjer Morgan and Ian Desmond, not stealing bases.

The best thing about signing Adam LaRoche is his defense. Is that defense enough to outweigh the decline in offense? I guess we’ll have to see how 2011 pans out. In 2010, LaRoche’s defense was worth about 8 runs more than Dunn’s overall. His WAR was still lower, however.

The 2011 Washington Nationals look like an improved team when compared with their 2010 counterpart. Zimmerman-Werth-LaRoche is a nice trio for the middle of the lineup, and this team should finally crack the 70-win mark at least. I guess we can say that, if Dunn had to be lost (I don’t know that he did), LaRoche is not a horrible choice to replace him. But we shouldn’t be considering him an upgrade overall.

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Can someone please tell the Washington Nationals they need starting pitching? Do they not realize that their No. 1 starter is Livan Hernandez?

I really have no idea what the Nationals game plan was or is this offseason. They have a garbage starting rotation, but go out and sign Jayson Werth to one of the more ridiculous contracts in baseball history. But then trade one of their few proven producers, Josh Willingham, to the Oakland A’s. Then they give Adam LaRoche a two-year contract and $15 million to play first base.

What?

They remind me of those Tampa Bay Devil Rays teams back in the late ’90s. Remember those teams? At a time when they should have gone young and try to build from within, they went out and spent on veteran hitters like Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff and Gregg Vaughn in order to excite their fanbase.

Much like the Nationals are doing now, the Devil Rays ignored improving their starting rotation and consistently finished in last place.  That’s where the Nationals are headed again in 2011.

I think LaRoche is a remarkably consistent player. He is almost a look for a .270 average and 25 HR every year. However, his cumulative WAR over the last three seasons is 6.4, which ranks him towards the bottom of Major League first basemen over that time period.

My point is that LaRoche is not going to help the Nationals win. LaRoche is the type of player where he is a good player on a bad team, but would be just a fringe player on a playoff caliber team. He is the offensive version of Brian Fuentes.

He might help the Nationals be somewhat “competitive,” but there is a difference between being competitive and winning. By the time the Nationals are a winning franchise (three to four years at a minimum), LaRoche will be gone and Werth will be a shell of his former self.

Plus, if they really want to be competitive—at least on the offensive side of the diamond—why not keep Willingham and go all in? Taking two steps forward and one step back on offense makes no sense to me.

Giving your fanbase false hope by signing veterans, so they think you are trying to win is not the way to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have tried that approach and look where it got them.

If the Nationals plan on winning sooner rather than later, they need to figure out a way to develop some pitching. If they don’t, they will be back in the same position they are now in five years.

That being a last place team.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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The worst kept secret came to fruition on Tuesday night as first baseman Adam LaRoche agreed to a two-year contract with a mutual option for a third year with a guaranteed value of $16 million.

I thought it was a great signing, even though LaRoche was General Manager Mike Rizzo’s third choice to fill the spot vacated by Adam Dunn (he was certainly my first choice, though). Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee were both offered contracts, but chose to sign elsewhere.

I am a little surprised at the reaction to the signing, though. “Average” and “mediocre” are some of the nicer comments I’ve read thus far around the blogosphere. To be fair, many of the commenters also say that the signing is generally a positive thing, but are they right?

Is Adam LaRoche just a mediocre first baseman pursued by a mediocre team?

Here are next year’s projected starting first baseman in the National League East, listed by runs batted in:

1. Philadelphia—Ryan Howard: .276-31-108

2. Washington—Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

3. Florida—Gabby Sanchez: .273-19-85

4. New York—Ike Davis: .264-19-71

5. Atlanta—Eric Hinske: .256-11-51

LaRoche drove in just eight fewer runs than Ryan Howard last season and had more home runs and more runs batted in than anyone else in the division.

That’s not exactly mediocre, right?

Among National League first basemen, LaRoche was sixth in home runs with 25 and fifth with 100 RBI, right up there with Ryan Howard, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. And six players had batting averages lower than his .261.

In 2010, LaRoche hit left-handers better than righties. Adam Dunn, by comparison, batted .199 against them and was a hole in the lineup on those days when a lefty pitched. With runners in scoring position and two out, LaRoche batted .274/.348/.575, while Dunn hit just .169/.334/.366.

Last season, there were five elite first baseman in the National League. Listed below are their statistics from 2010 along with LaRoche, who of course isn’t in their league, but was one of the few first baseman to drive in 100 runs or more last year. They are listed by runs batted in:

Albert Pujols: .312-42-118

Joey Votto: .324-37-113

Ryan Howard: .276-31-108

Adrian Gonzalez: .298-31-101

Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

Prince Fielder: .261-32-83

Now let’s take a look at those same six first baseman but we’ll use their clutch statistics from last season. Listed below is how they did with runners in scoring position and two outs, and with those numbers based on a full 162 game season (it’s much easier to compare that way as the number of at-bats varies from player to player). Again, they are listed by runs batted in:

Adam LaRoche: .274/.348/.575, 48 home runs, 292 RBI

Joey Votto: .327/.476/.653, 51 home runs, 268 RBI

Ryan Howard: .200/.341/.586, 38 home runs, 198 RBI

Albert Pujols: .340/.588/.620, 24 home runs, 186 RBI

Adrian Gonzalez: .317/.563/.439, 10 home runs, 142 RBI

Prince Fielder: .212/.441/.242, 0 home runs, 111 RBI

LaRoche had the highest number of RBI and came in second in home runs when compared to these elite sluggers (again, based on a full season). Yes, his batting average was just fourth best, but clutch hitting is all about driving in runs, not getting on base.

After looking at these statistics, LaRoche doesn’t seem “mediocre,” does he?

Defensively, LaRoche is not a Gold Glove first baseman, but he is an extremely good fielder, who can stop balls hit down the line and is great at digging bad throw out of the dirt.

Let’s compare the defense of those top first baseman with Adam LaRoche. They are listed by highest fielding percentage. Also shown are errors made and number of innings played:

Adam LaRoche: .995 (44/7,878)

Albert Pujols: .994 (68/10,039)

Albert Gonzalez: .994 (41/7,447)

Joey Votto: .993 (26/3,740)

Price Fielder: .992 (53/6,917)

Ryan Howard: .990 (78/7,440)

And to help make sense of these numbers, I’ve included the last two Nationals’ first baseman, Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn. We remember Johnson as a solid fielder and Dunn as pretty bad:

Nick Johnson: .992 (48/5,527)

Adam Dunn: .987 (36/2,677)

These numbers don’t take into account range and a few other factors, but overall, fielding percent is a good indicator of a player’s defense. Though LaRoche might not get to the same number of balls as Adrian Gonzalez, he is better at turning them into outs.

Does that sound mediocre to you?

No, Adam LaRoche isn’t a star first baseman who will change the fortunes of the Washington Nationals with one swing of the bat. But that’s not what he is supposed to be. The Nationals have stars in right field and third base right now, and in a couple of years, the team will add another one once Bryce Harper gets a little bit of experience.

LaRoche will be asked to field his position, hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 100 runs. If he does those things, he will be among the upper third of first baseman in 2011 just like he was last year.

And that, no matter how you slice it, is nowhere close to mediocre.

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With Cliff Lee bleeding Philly red, serving the needs of his family and Phanatics, what free agents remaining could possibly take a team into playoff contention?  Adrian Beltre appears to be ready to sign with the Texas Rangers, does that return the Rangers to the playoffs or World Series?  Here are eight remaining free agents could be the missing pieces in the postseason jigsaw puzzle for certain teams. 

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I have a feeling that no matter what Adam LaRoche does as a Washington National—assuming the obvious happens and he signs with the team—there is going to be a fairly loud minority saying, “Yeah, but he’s no Adam Dunn.”

And they’ll be right, of course. Their same first name aside, they are two very different players. And yes, one of them will help his new team more than the other. And that player is Adam LaRoche.

Surprise!

First, LaRoche is not just a better defender than Dunn, he is one of the best defensive first baseman in the National League. He is especially good at guarding the line and as a left-hander, his glove is just a little closer to the ball as it is thrown across the diamond, turning a few would-be hits into outs on bang-bang plays at first.

Second, most say that Dunn—who is a premier slugger—is in a different league offensively. But is he really? Home runs are just one way of measuring a hitter’s value to their club.

Let’s compare their 2010 seasons:

Hits

Dunn: 145

LaRoche: 146

Doubles

Dunn: 36

LaRoche: 37

Triples

Dunn: 2

LaRoche: 2

Home Runs

Dunn: 38

LaRoche: 25

RBI

Dunn: 103

LaRoche: 100

Walks

Dunn: 77

LaRoche: 48

Strikeouts

Dunn: 199

LaRoche: 172

Batting Average / On-Base Percent / Slugging Average

Dunn: .260/.356/.536

LaRoche: .261/.320/.468

Their base statistics are similar. Dunn hits more home runs and walks more often but LaRoche doesn’t strike out as much. Over the course of the season, Dunn got one base about one more time per week than LaRoche. Other than that, we’re looking at comparable hitters.

But let’s look at some other numbers that tell the real story:

Here are the two player’s 2010 stats against left-handers based on a full 162 games:

Dunn: .199-30-81, 214 strikeouts

LaRoche: .264-20-115, 153 strikeouts

When a lefty was on the mound, the Nationals might have just as well batted Dunn ninth. Oh, he would hit an occasional mistake a long way, but for the most part he was a hole in the lineup when facing left-handers.

LaRoche, on the other hand, actually hits lefties better. You won’t see opposing managers bring in a left-hander with LaRoche in the box; his batting average is five points higher against them.

And when it comes to clutch hitting, there just isn’t any comparison:

With runners in Scoring Position

Dunn: .217/.335/.427

LaRoche: .306/.351/.573

With Men on Base

Dunn: .236/.357/.465

LaRoche: .288/.337/.523

And here are their stats with two outs and runners in scoring position, again based on a full 162 games:

Dunn: .169-28-144, 238 strikeouts

LaRoche: .274-48-292, 178 strikeouts

Take a look at those numbers again. LaRoche is almost twice as likely to hit a home run or drive in a base runner with two out and runners in scoring position than is Dunn.

So who is more valuable than whom?

Adam Dunn is a great guy who hits long home runs. At first glance, his stats seem impressive but after you peel away the press clippings and ESPN highlights, it becomes obvious that he is a one dimensional player.

There is a reason that he had to wait until Spring Training to sign his last contract in 2008.

Adam LaRoche, on the other hand, doesn’t do any one thing extremely well but does everything well enough. He will cut down Ryan Zimmerman’s and Ian Desmond’s throwing errors on defense and will give the Nationals a second clutch bat in the middle of the order (for all the good things he does, Jason Werth batted only .139 with runners in scoring position and two out last season).

If the Nationals can make it happen, Adam LaRoche will do a wonderful job replacing Josh Willingham’s bat in the lineup. It’s not that he’s a better hitter. He just remains healthy. Over 162 games, Willingham has averaged .265-25-82 while LaRoche batted .271-26-93.

You just never see those kind of numbers next to Willingham’s name because he misses 30 or 40 games per season due to injury.

LaRoche is like Willingham in one way: you grow to appreciate him more when watching him play every day. And when all those balls in the dirt don’t end up down the right field line, and when all those runners on second and third don’t end the inning still standing on the bag, we’ll all begin to appreciate Adam LaRoche a little more.

Perhaps we might even decide that the two year contract wasn’t long enough.

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It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal lead off hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.

Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

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The Baltimore Orioles need a first baseman.

As former Orioles first baseman Kevin Millar might say: “It’s time for the O’s to cowboy up and get it done.”

That’s the feeling every Oriole fan is experiencing at this moment in time in regards to the first base situation, which has been dragging on for most of the offseason.

At first, it was losing out on their number one target, catcher/first baseman/DH Victor Martinez by two million dollars to the Detroit Tigers. Then came Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko signing with the Chicago White Sox.

Now, the Orioles are left with the last two “top” free agent first baseman left on the market in Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche, and the urgency to sign one of them increases each passing day.

LaRoche was the Orioles’ main target between the two at the annual Winter Meetings in early December. It makes sense: He is fairly young (31) with a very consistent bat and a great glove. The only real drawbacks to him are the fact that he is a left-handed hitter, something the Orioles are already loaded with and that he wants a three-year deal, a length of time that the Orioles’ front office isn’t comfortable with.

It is safe to assume the Orioles had offered a LaRoche a lucrative deal weeks ago, but whether it was a two or three-year deal has yet to be released. Either way, LaRoche has sat on the deal for way too long, hoping either he got a better offer money or years-wise, or that a contender offers him a job.

LaRoche is a good player, but isn’t good enough for a team to justify bidding against themselves in order to win his services. This is why I now say that the Orioles need to grab Derrek Lee and grab him now, so that this whole ordeal is over and done with and they can focus on their pitching, the rotation and bullpen.

Lee is older (35), and is coming off an injured and down year. But Lee is a right-handed run producer (he drove in 80 runs last season in his down year, and averages 90 during a 162-game season), a great fielder and a clubhouse leader.

Coming off a year in which his thumb was injured, he can be expected to bounce back, much like third baseman Adrian Beltre did last year when he signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox,or former O Aubrey Huff did in San Francisco with the World Series champion Giants.

And like Beltre and Huff, Lee would be willing to sign a one-year deal in order to re-establish himself as a feared hitter, something the Orioles sorely lack and haven’t had since the 2005 season when they had an Opening Day lineup featuring Miguel Tejada, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro.

After having thumb surgery in the beginning of the offseason, Lee should be ready to go with the bat and glove on Opening Day 2011. It would be a real surprise to everyone in the MLB and whoever follows it if Lee doesn’t have a good year next season, if not a great one.

Lee would be very motivated to produce a good year in order to hit the free agent market in 2011 and get a three-year deal with an annual salary of $10 million or up.

The fact that he has played his entire career in the National League shouldn’t be used against him, as hitters of his experience and ability often aren’t defined by the league they play in. They can hit wherever and will step it up when the situation presents the need, such as the mentioned re-establishment of a one-year deal.

It was well known that at the beginning of the offseason, Lee wanted to sign with a contender and didn’t have any interest in Baltimore, despite his ties with President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail back in his Chicago Cubs days.

But it has been reported within the past few days that Lee has opened up a bit more to playing with a non-contender and playing for the Orioles. In hearing that news, MacPhail should have picked up the phone, called Lee’s agent and offered him a one-year deal at $10 or $11 million.

MacPhail needs to put an end to the question mark at first base for the Baltimore Orioles going into the 2011 season. This team can’t afford to waste any more time waiting on LaRoche to make up his mind.

The front office needs to put the pedal to the metal and get someone signed so that they can focus on the other teams needs. If LaRoche doesn’t want to come to Baltimore, then Lee would be crazy to pass up the opportunity at a chance to play with the great competition of the AL East and to prove himself on a $10 million salary.

Lee would be a good addition with the glove and in the clubhouse, leading a young team and teaching them how to win, as well as providing pop from the right side of the plate with an assumed bounce-back year.

Make the call, Andy. Make the offer. Do whatever it takes.

It’s time to “cowboy up” and get the team a real first baseman.

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The 2011 season can break one of two ways for the Washington Nationals. They can either take that final step towards a .500 season and use it as a conduit to future playoff contention or they can simply suck for a sixth consecutive year.

And which possibility becomes reality is dependent on who trots out to first base next Opening Day.

The Nationals have shored up enough of their offense—and will in the next month bring in enough starting pitching—that a defensive minded, 25 homer, 85 RBI type of first baseman should make the team at least good enough to take a run at respectability. Anything less and fans will still be talking in terms of “next season.”

Right now, three teams and two players are playing musical chairs with Russian roulette-type implications. The San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals are all without a first baseman and are chasing two pretty good ones: Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee.

So, what’s taking so long?

Most teams have their rosters and payrolls pretty much set by the time they return from Christmas vacation. That means that players only have a few days to finalize their contracts and find homes in their new cities.

Now, the reality is that while the Padres want a new first baseman, they probably can’t afford one. If money weren’t a problem they would never have shipped Adrian Gonzalez off to Boston. The reality then is that two teams need a first baseman and two good ones remain in the MLB cupboard (with a few more available in the scratch-n-dent bin).

The 34-year-old Lee is the short-term solution for both clubs. After averaging .292-32-85 since 2000, a little bit of age and an injured thumb slowed him down last year. He batted .260-19-80 playing for the Braves and the Chicago Cubs. He is a former Gold Glove winner.

Lee is a short-term solution because he is content with a one-year contract for “Carlos Pena money,” somewhere in the $8-10 million range. His hope is that he will be able to rebrand himself following a solid 2011 season and then sign a two or three-year deal next fall.

Over the past week or two, both Mid-Atlantic teams showed the most interest in the 30-year-old LaRoche. He has averaged .271-25-87 in his six full major league seasons and brings a glove that is almost Gold Glove quality. It makes a great deal of sense, then, to reward LaRoche with a two-year deal, perhaps with the team owning a third-year option.

Again, it’s been a couple of weeks since negotiations began between the two first basemen and the two teams. From all reports, the Orioles have in fact offered LaRoche a multi-year deal, probably for two years. The sticking point is that third year.

It has been reported that the Orioles were unwilling to include that extra year and they are now in negotiations with Derrek Lee. But those are the same reports coming out of the Nationals camp, that after initial discussions with LaRoche, the team has focused on Lee as their first baseman in 2011.

So what gives?

It would seem that LaRoche is seeking some stability after playing for four teams in five years. He wants to be able to unpack his bags and actually choose the color for his bedroom walls for once. And I don’t begrudge him that desire.

And really, I don’t see why the Nationals would have a problem with a three-year contract. He is the model of consistency. Beginning in 2006, LaRoche has batted .285, .272, .270, .277 and .261 last season.

And over the past four seasons, he has hit 21, 25, 25 and 25 home runs and drove in 90, 88, 85, 83 and 100 runs. It’s great. Just wind him up in March and watch him go.

Lee, on the other hand, had a difficult year in 2009, which could have been the result of either a damaged thumb or advancing age. If it was his thumb, then Lee should be able to hit .280-30-95; maybe better. If it’s the age, then .265-20-75 seems about right.

The problem, of course, is that no one will know until long after the contract has been signed.

The Nationals have two first basemen currently in their minor league system who could one day become major league players. Chris Marrero is 21 and just finished his first full season against Double-A pitchers, batting .294/.350/.450 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. Over his five-year minor league career, he’s averaged .281-19-88 with a .347 on-base percentage over a full season.

But he went to the Adam Dunn school of defense and general manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that defense and athleticism are priority talents for future National players. Thus, he has no real future in Washington. He’ll likely end up part of a trade package for a veteran player.

Tyler Moore is two years older than Marrero and played in 2010 with Potomac, a level below Marrero’s Harrisburg Senators. However, Moore was drafted out of college, so his age really isn’t an issue. Moore batted .269-31-111 for the P-Nats while garnering a solid .552 slugging mark. Moore, however, is not a great defender.

So it’s not as though a multi-year contract to LaRoche (or Lee) will block some can’t-miss prospect in the minors. Marrero is a near-certain trade chip and Moore is at least two years away from the major leagues.

My guess is that we’ll wake one morning very soon and read that the Nationals signed one of these first baseman. I wouldn’t be upset if it’s Lee but hope that it ends up being LaRoche for two years with a third-year option at $8 million per season.

If the Nationals get one of those two guys—and add that elusive starting pitcher—the winter additions plus the overall maturation of the team will make a .500 run a real possibility. If, however, the team is forced to sift through the scrap heap to find their new first baseman, a 72 to 76-win season is about all we can hope for.

So Adam, hurry up, will you? Let’s get this taken care. The Nationals need you.

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The MLB Hot Stove is in full swing, and a number of significant moves have already been made at the Winter Meetings. That said, there will still be plenty more action before the winter is over, as a number of teams still have glaring needs on their roster.

Looking to the National League, the Nationals already made a splash signing Jayson Werth, but who will be the next NL team to pull the trigger on a big signing?

Here is a look at the biggest needs of all 16 NL teams, and who they could sign to fill the needs among the remaining players on the free agent market.  

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The Baltimore Orioles have sent relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio to the Arizona Diamondbacks for their slugging, strikeout-prone third baseman Mark Reynolds.

Even though it happened only a couple hours ago, every Orioles fan knows that by now.

Reynolds is a legitimate, right-handed power bat, having hit 32 homers last season, and 44 in 2009.

But he strikes out a lot. In fact, more often than anyone else in history, being the only player to strike out over 200 times in a season.

He’s done that the past three years.

He also hit .198 last year, but did have a .320 on-base percentage.

Knowing that, the Orioles front office now should focus on adding a solid bat.

By solid, I mean someone who can put up good power numbers with at least a decent average. Someone named Adam LaRoche.

I’ve seen some fans calling for the signing of Carlos Pena since this deal has happened, and I can understand that. The O’s need a first baseman, and Pena is a guy who plays a good first, is a leader in the clubhouse, and can hit the ball far.

Pena is also the same kind of hitter that Reynolds is—a guy who hits a homer or strikes out.

Pena has seen his average drop every year since his stellar 2007 season when he hit .282 with 46 homers and 121 runs batted in.

This past year, he put up a .196 average, but did have an OBP of .325.

Comparing power numbers between Pena and Reynolds, Pena put out 28 balls in 2010 while Reynolds smacked 32.

Pena drove in 84 runs; Reynolds tallied 85.

And while Pena stuck out 158 times compared to Reynolds ridiculous total of 211, you can see the similarities in the hitters pretty obviously.

Pena is almost a left-handed version of Reynolds, or vice-versa, when at the plate.

The O’s lineup doesn’t need another hitter like that.

They need someone who has been consistent, someone who the manager, coaches, and hitters batting around him know what he’s going to put up. Adam LaRoche is that guy.

While he won’t put up monster power numbers like Pena, LaRoche has managed to hit at least 20 homers in every season of his seven-year career except his rookie campaign, a year in which he hit 13 bombs in 324 at-bats, as well as driving in at least 78 runs every year besides his rookie year.

In 2010, he put up a line of .261/25/100, and his .320 OBP is identical to Reynolds’ and just five points lower than Pena’s.

He did strike out 172 times, but he had a much higher batting average.

Many fans point to the hitting coach in Tampa Bay as the reason why Pena’s average has dropped so much each year since 2007, and maybe a change of scenery combined with the help of manager Buck Showalter and hitting coach Jim Presley can help Pena return to form a bit.

But that’s just a maybe.

LaRoche has bounced around a bit in his career, and he has hit everywhere.

He’s a guy who the O’s would know what they’re going to get from at the plate, as well as a good glove defensively and a respected clubhouse member.

He would help add balance to an Orioles’ lineup that needs it even more so after the acquisition of Reynolds.

Like always, I could be wrong.

Pena could bounce back and be great for the Orioles if they were to sign him, or another team.

Obviously, both players have their drawbacks, but personally I feel that it’s more important for the O’s to grab a known commodity in LaRoche as opposed to another player who could mash the ball with a Reynolds-like batting average.

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