Kuzul

There’s word going around baseball that the Blue Jays may be on the verge of another trade. Now if you’re yelling at the computer screen, asking “Why?” just calm down. There is an obvious abundance of DH/1B types on the roster. After the Vernon Wells trade the Jays now have four, yes four, players who can comfortably fit at DH. The great thing about this is that the Jays have many options and directions they can go; they could stick Napoli at 1B, Arencibia at catcher and use Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind or Juan Rivera at DH. In my opinion I think that Arencibia should start with the team this year rather than in Vegas. He’s a young hitter which means there will be many steps he’ll need to take (along with many slumps) but he’s the future for the Jays and he’s basically dominating the minors with his 53 home runs in 2 seasons at AAA.

If Anthopoulos has to trade someone away it should easily be Rivera or Encarnacion. They’re two players that are reaching the end of the line in their careers, unlike Napoli. Although Napoli isn’t the big bopper type that you’re looking to carry the team, he’s still young, (just turned 29), which means he still has a lot of upside. Adam Lind absolutely needs to be in the lineup everyday, his 23 home runs and 72 RBI are much needed in this lineup, I don’t think there’s much talk about not having him in there. He can easily cover the DH spot or help out Napoli at 1B when he’s needed. The one position that the Jays are reportedly looking at is 3B, if they’re able to land a third baseman, then the outfield will be set with: Bautista, Davis & Travis Snider. Since the Jays have already stated that Rajai Davis will be starting in Center the fact of the matter is that Juan Rivera is too expensive to be a bench/pinch hitter, so he’ll likely be the odd man out.

With the Wells trade the Jays freed up quite a bit of payroll which means they could actually go after a bigger name third baseman rather than an unproven type of player. I don’t know about you but I would be much more comfortable with an infield & outfield that looks like this:

C – Arencibia

1B – Napoli

2B – Hill

SS – Escobar

3B – ?

RF – Bautista

CF – R. Davis

LF – Snider

DH – Lind

This depth chart is much more reliable than having Rivera or Encarnacion on the field and having to stick Bautista at 3B or 1B. If they make the right move it could really make a difference not just in the lineup but for the future of the franchise. So lets all sit back and see what Anthopoulos’ next move is. 

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The key to a successful fantasy baseball draft is maximizing the return value on each of your picks. At the start of each draft, everybody will have an equal value’s worth of picks; therefore, unless you target players who could potentially exceed the value of the pick they were drafted with, you will finish your draft in the middle of the pack. One of the best types of player to target when attempting to maximize value is the player who disappointed the previous year. Logically, his value will be its lowest following a poor season; hence the appeal to targeting these players. In this article, I will provide you with four players who should at least be on your radar entering your 2011 drafts. 

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Manny Ramirez is without a doubt one of the most powerful and productive hitters to ever play the game of baseball.  Manny has a career average of .313 and has hit 555 home runs in his colorful career.  Manny is a 12-time All-Star and has won the Hank Aaron award twice.  He has won two World Series rings with the Boston Red Sox (2004,2007) and was the World Series MVP in 2004.  

Despite his hitting success, Manny Ramirez has been a serious cancer to any team that has taken him in.  His immature antics, his laziness, and his lack of passion has irritated every team he has ever played for and has resulted in him switching teams on more than a few occasions.  Manny Ramirez has also been plagued by the accusations surrounding his usage of steroids.  

The past couple of years have been a struggle for Manny as he has dealt with a ton injuries and a lot of criticism.  On the occasions that Manny has played, he has hit for a high average but has been dealing with a serious power outage.  Whether it be age, injuries, or the lack of a certain performance-enhancing drug, one thing is certain, Manny is not the same Manny he once was and it appears as though retirement is not far away.

Manny would still like to play and buzz was generated when he spoke to ESPN Deportes about how he liked the Toronto Blue Jays and how he has always wanted to play with them.  Ramirez has had very few suitors this offseason and is hoping that a team will take a chance on him.  I believe that Manny Ramirez and the Toronto Blue Jays would be a perfect match for 10 reasons……

Please note that the slides are not ranked, just numbered.

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When Gus Zernial of the Chicago White Sox and Roy Smalley of the Chicago Cubs won the inaugural Dave Kingman Award way back in 1950, the level of analysis that went into the award was pretty primitive. 

Did they guy hit a lot of home runs? If so, did he have a really low batting average and also a strangely low RBI total? 

Okay, good. Here’s your Dave Kingman Award. 

As baseball enjoyed its statistical revolution of the last 30 years, the Kingman analysis became greatly enhanced. To home runs and on-base percentage we were able to add runs created, OPS, OPS+, adjusted batting runs, WAR, and a host of other offensive statistics, to say nothing of the tacitly present defensive factor, measured by fielding runs, plus/minus, ultimate zone rating, and defensive WAR. 

Indeed, the statistical revolution has brought us into a new era of Dave Kingman analysis, which is really great, because there have certainly been season in which the Kingman candidates have abounded, and simple reference to home runs and on-base percentage haven’t given us the necessary information we’ve needed to parse the Pedro Felizes and the Chris Youngs. 

Where we’ve needed more, we’ve gotten it. 

And so it is, then, that we turn our attention to the 2010 Dave Kingman Award, with an eye towards determining, once again, who in Major League Baseball more than any other player was truly doing the least with the most. 

Let’s have a look: 

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks 

Reynolds will perpetually be a Kingman candidate because of his traditionally high home run and strikeout rates, combined with his traditionally low batting average. This season was no different for the Diamondbacks third baseman, as he hit 32 home runs, but managed only a .198 batting average with 211 strikeouts. 

After becoming the first player ever to strike out 200 times in 2008, he became the first player ever to do it twice in 2009, and in 2010 became the first player ever to do it three times. 

Reynolds was particularly bad in 2010, however. After driving in 102 RBI and scoring 98 runs in 2009, those numbers dropped to 85 and 79. He also had a 150 hits in 2009, and that number dropped to a shocking 99 hits in 596 plate appearances in 2010. The adage regarding strikeouts being just as detrimental to a player as any other out does not apply, it would seem, to Mark Reynolds. 

Brother needs to put some bat on some balls. 

Nevertheless, Reynolds remains just outside of being considered a Kingman clone for a simple reason: in 145 games, Reynolds took 83 walks in 2010, which raised his OBP a surprising 122 points above his batting average. 

There is value there, and while it is not great, it is enough to keep him out of the inner Kingman circle. 

Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays 

Everything we just said about Mark Reynolds pretty much goes for Carlos Pena. He had the same curious combination of below .200 average and above .300 OBP, he hit a shocking number of home runs for a guy who doesn’t seem to make contact with the ball all that often, and he finished with fewer than 100 hits in 144 games. 

Pena is also a pretty bad defensive player, though this is not his reputation. Nevertheless, in this season, he is too good to win the Kingman. 

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays 

It is simply unbelievable that Adam Lind could have consecutive seasons as disparate as the ones he had in 2009 and 2010. Lind went from 35 home runs, 114 RBI, and a .305/.370/.562 to 23 home runs, 72 RBI, and a .237/.287/.425 without even seeing a significant decrease in playing time. He scored almost 40 fewer runs in 2010 (93 vs. 57) and had 44 fewer base hits. 

I mean, what in the name of Jonny Gomes 2006 is going on here? 

In any other season, Lind would likely have walked away with the Dave Kingman Award handily with 23 home runs and a .287 on-base percentage. Throw in his -8.65 adjusted batting runs (second worst for any major leaguer with over 20 home runs) and his 0.1 WAR (wow), and he’d be a shoo-in. 

As it is, he isn’t even the best Kingman candidate in the American League, nor is he the best candidate (spoiler alert) on his own team…

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles 

There are certain things that baseball fans never understand, certain pieces of conventional wisdom that all baseball insiders follow but baseball outsiders can’t comprehend. 

For me, this is that thing: why is it that from time to time a team with no hope of making the playoffs will have a veteran player drastically over-achieve their career performance during the first half of the season and not immediately sell high on that player. 

This year we saw that with two players: when Carlos Silva came out of the gate lights out for the Chicago Cubs, winning his first eight games, the Cubs sat idly by patting themselves on the back for having found such a diamond in the rough. 

Even when it became clear that the Cubs season was going to be a train-wreck (I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say mid-May even though, for me, it was mid-March) and they were going to be dealing some players, they held on to Carlos Silva like he was found money. 

Had it been me, as soon as he got to 5-0 and I would have been on the horn with every general manager in baseball offering to give him up to any team willing to take his salary off my hands. When a guy like Silva (career WHIP: 1.397) comes out and looks like the next Derek Lowe for two months, you Sell Sell Sell!!! 

The other player we saw that with in 2010 was Ty Wigginton. Hey look, what do I know? There is a chance that when the 30 year old Wigginton came out and hit .288 with a .934 OPS over the first two months of the season with 13 home runs, 32 RBI, and 23 runs scored on the worst offensive team in baseball, it meant that he had finally figured things out. 

Had it been me, though, again I would have been on the horn with every team in baseball that needed a corner infielder for the fourth, fifth, or sixth spot in their lineup. If you think the Orioles couldn’t have gotten a tasty Double-A pitching prospect, or even a middle infield defensive specialist, in return for the hot hitting Wigginton from a desperate playoff-cusp team, you’re crazy. 

And what, possibly, were the Orioles holding him for? Was the 2011 season going to be built around this guy? 

As it was, the Orioles held on to Wigginton, and enjoyed the business end of a four month stretch from June 1st to the end of the season in which he hit .231 with a .640 OPS and nine home runs the rest of the way. Well play, Mr. Angelos, well played. 

Not only did the Orioles not get anything in return for two months of Wigginton hotness, they also found themselves in possession of a Kingman candidate. 

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs 

The 2010 National League Dave Kingman Award, and 2010 Major League Baseball Kingman Finalist, must be Aramis Ramirez of the Chicago Cubs. 

Not only did this guy suck on both sides of the ball, but he also $16.75 million to do it. 

As they say in melodramatic action movies when either an infectious disease or an object from space threatens to kill everyone on the planet: 

My. God. 

That Aramis Ramirez didn’t suffer one of the worst full seasons of all time is a testament to his second half. We here at BaseballEvolution.com have an Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award for the player who tails off the most after a great first half; in 2010, Ramirez was the bizarro Alex Gonzalez. 

On July 8 of this season, just days before the All Star Break, Ramirez had a .195 batting average with a .254 OBP and a .350 slugging percentage. To that point, through 59 games, A-Ram had nine home runs, 30 RBI, 18 walks and 52 strikeouts. 

Aramis was downright respectable in the second half, though, hitting 16 home runs, 13 doubles, and a triple while batting .285 with an .880 OPS the rest of the way. 

Imagine: despite that performance, he was still our Dave Kingman Award Finalist for the National League. The reason why is simple enough: on the season as a whole, Ramirez finished with the third fewest adjusted batting runs of any player with over 20 home runs in baseball, and fewest in the National League, with -7.93. He enjoyed (or didn’t enjoy) a negative WAR at -0.7, and his .294 on-base percentage was still terrible. 

Indeed, it was a year of which Dave Kingman would have been proud. 

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays 

Ah, Aaron Hill. I hate to dog an LSU Tiger like this, but Aaron Hill’s 2010 season was a historic one from a “doing the least with the most perspective.” 

Hill’s conventional stats are bad enough on their own to justify giving him the 2010 Kingman Award. Combined with his 26 home runs, Hill had 70 runs, 68 RBI, 22 doubles, 108 hits, and 41 walks. His batting average was a ridiculous .205, and his on-base percentage followed suit at .271. His OPS was a terrible .665, good for a 79 OPS+. 

His more advanced stats were also terrible: 0.8 WAR, -17.5 adjusted batting runs, and 56 runs created. 

But when you go deeper, you realize how terrible these numbers truly are for two reasons. 

First, in 2010 Hill became the sixth player ever to hit more than 25 home runs and have less than -15 batting runs (Hill went 26/-17.5). The other five were Tony Armas (1983), Vinny Castilla (1999), Tony Batista (2003 and 2004), and Jeff Francoeur (2006). 

Important, Armas and Bastista (twice) both won the Kingman Award in their respective years, while Francoeur was the runner-up, to Pedro Feliz, in the controversial 2006 voting. 

But wait… there’s more. 

In 2010, Aaron Hill also became the second player in the history of baseball to hit more than 25 home runs and have an OPS+ under 80, joining only Batista in 2003 (who somehow managed to go 26/73 in 670 plate appearances). 

And there it is: the essence of what it means to win the Dave Kingman Award. A rare combination of home run power and overall valuelessness. At least by this standard, Aaron Hill had the second best Kingman-clone season of all time. 

And for this reason, Aaron Hill is the 2010 Major League Baseball Dave Kingman Award Winner.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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Adam Lind’s 2010 campaign was disappointing, as he fell well shy of what many hoped was his 2009 breakout (.305, 35 HR, 114 RBI).

The fact of the matter is, he had little opportunity to approach those numbers once again.

His HR/FB in ‘09 was 19.8 percent, significantly higher then what he had posted in portions of the prior two years (13.3 percent and 11.0 percent).

The inability to sustain that mark certainly played a role in his regression, while he also may have been pressing to live up to the power (his fly-ball rate went from 36.8 percent to 40.4 percent).

Throw in a huge jump in strikeouts and a regression in his BABIP, and it all added up to the following numbers:

569 At-Bats
.237 Batting Average (135 Hits)
23 Home Runs
72 RBI
57 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.287 On-Base Percentage
.425 Slugging Percentage
.277 Batting Average on Balls in Play

I think there is little questioning the idea that he was pressing in 2010. His strikeout rate went from 18.7 percent in 2009 to 25.3 percent in 2010.

Over his minor league career, he posted an 18.7 percent mark in 1,581 at-bats, so there is little questioning his ability to make contact.

However, you wouldn’t know it by looking at his monthly rates:

• April: 29.7 percent
• May: 22.0 percent
• June: 31.1 percent
• July: 26.4 percent
• August: 19.6 percent
• September: 23.8 percent

Every single month was higher than his 2009 mark—almost unfathomable to think of. You couple that with a huge decline in BABIP (in 2009 he had a .323 mark), and the expected decrease in power and the fact that his average was awful should not be a surprise.

However, there certainly is reason for optimism.

He has proven to be too good of a hitter throughout his minor league career and early in his major league career to think that he won’t be able to turn the contact around. Throw in some improved luck, and his average shouldn’t be a concern.

The power he showed in 2010 is probably what we should come to expect. Given his history (55 HR in 1,581 minor league at-bats) and the huge increase in his peripherals, it would appear that he’s more of a 25ish home run hitter. That’s certainly not a mark you would complain about.

An improved average should help him in both the run and RBI categories as well. Let’s face it—the more he’s on base and the more hits he gets, the more productive he’s going to be overall, no matter where he settles in the lineup.

The Blue Jays took a look at him at first base in 2009, and there certainly is reason to believe that they could give him a much longer look in 2010. Lyle Overbay could be considered just as disappointing, hitting .243 with 20 HR and 67 RBI.

As a free agent this offseason, it’s hard to imagine the team bringing him back.

That would leave a gaping hole at first base and Lind, who is signed through 2013 (with options for 2014, 2015, and 2016), could make the most sense to fill the void.

Of course, it’s dependent on the team’s other moves, and there figure to be a slew of first base options available via free agency. Still, it certainly is worth considering.

That type of move could add to his fantasy appeal in 2011. Depending on your league rules, he may actually have just utility eligibility at the outset of the season, playing 16 games in the outfield and 11 at first base.

That limits his value significantly because fantasy owners are not going to want to clog their utility spot on a player who is going to hit .280 with 25 HR.

Those are fine numbers, but they certainly aren’t going to be a first choice, especially if he doesn’t have eligibility elsewhere. It just cripples your flexibility.

However, even as a first baseman, Lind is losing significant value.

It’s a position where you are looking for big HR and RBI totals and coming off 2010, there are significant questions if he can get there. He’s just not in the class of names like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto.

As a high-upside risk, he’ll be worth taking in the mid to late rounds of your draft (if he has outfield eligibility in your league, then it’s a mid-round pick). He’s shown how good he could be, but it doesn’t seem likely he will fully get back there.

We’ll get into a projection as we get closer to the 2011 season, but for now keep his name filed away as a bounce-back sleeper, but one that may not be worth the risk. Then again, could he be 2011’s version of Vladimir Guerrero?

What are your thoughts on Lind? Where are you pegging him for 2011? Is he going to have value as a first baseman?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Freese, David
• Morrow, Brandon

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It has been a year of excitement and disappointment for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The fans witnessed history at the Rogers Centre when Jose Bautista became the 26th player in Major League history to hit 50 home runs in a season.  Bautista‘s incredible, feel good story has been one of the highlights of the Blue Jays this year, as well as the emergence of Brandon Morrow and the other young starters on the squad. 

It has been disappointing to once again fall to fourth in the American League East, and staying far out of reach of the playoffs.  But even that wasn’t unexpected, in fact the Jays performed much better than expected this year, especially with their surprising capacity for hitting home runs.

Now that the season is tailing down, thoughts towards the future come to the forefront.

Will the pitchers build upon their breakout year to become one of the best rotations in the American League?

Which of the free agents will leave and what kind of draft picks will the Jays receive because of it?

Will the team figure out other ways to score if they can’t repeat their success with the long ball?

First things first, there are certain players who are the core of this team and are therefore signed long term.  Their chances of being traded in the offseason are slim to none.  Players such as Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Ricky Romero are all signed long term, and form the core which this team is built around.

A good portion of the starting rotation is likely to be back. Shaun Marcum has excelled this year coming off an injury and the trade for Brandon Morrow looked better and better throughout the year.  Those two, along with Brett Cecil, who also had a breakout year, will likely be signed to new contracts if they can continue to progress.  Those three with Romero will form most of the Blue Jays rotation barring injury or a deep regression in form.

The question of the fifth starter is completely open on the other hand.  Various pitchers can fill that slot, but it is tough to say who will be the best fit.  Jesse Litsch is hampered by injury once again, but has the most experience of the candidates.  Marc Rzepczynski has had experience as well but has struggled at the Major League level.

The X-factor in the rotation is Kyle Drabek, who has had two starts so far with the Jays this year, and showed some good control and focus.  He was the Easter League pitcher of the year in Double-A and many have pronounced him ready for joining the Jays.

Jose Bautista will go through arbitration this summer and will stay under Jays control, so the GM Alex Anthopoulos will likely wait to see how he performs next year before deciding whether to offer him a big contract.  He will likely continue to play both right field and third unless a more permanent player can be filled in either slot. 

It is unlikely that the Jays will settle on having Edwin Encarnacion as their regular third baseman, so some infield moves could be a possibility.  There has been some talk about moving Hill to third on the chance that Adeiny Hechavarria is ready next year, in which case either him or Yunel Escobar would play second.

The other infield spot up in the air is first base, with Lyle Overbay becoming a free agent.  Adam Lind has played a few games at first, and catching prospect J.P Arencibia has the potential to play some games both behind the plate and on first.

Speculation has popped up the press lately that Lind and Arencibia aren’t ready yet to take over for Overbay and catcher John Buck, who is also a free agent.

It seems unlikely that they would be re-signed, since Buck has made it clear he wants to play full-time and Overbay is likely looking for a multi-year contract.  This doesn’t seem to create any progress or move the team forward, so those two leaving as free agents still seems the most likely.

Catcher Jose Molina could be kept on to mentor Arencibia on defense and game-calling and continue his work with the pitching staff.

Unless there are some big trades or free agent acquisitions, which seem unlikely, the roster could very well look like this:

Outfield:  Fred Lewis, Vernon Wells, Travis Snider.

Infield:  Jose Bautista, Yunel Escobar, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind.

Catcher: J.P. Arencibia.

On the Bench:  John McDonald, Jose Molina.

Encarnacion is too expensive to be a bench player, so he would either have to be dealt or given third base full-time.  Other bench roles could be filled by Jarret Hoffpauir, DeWayne Wise, and Mike McCoy unless someone from Triple-A or a free agent comes in.

Starting Rotation:  Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek.

Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor are all free agents this summer, but since the Jays favour veteran players in the bullpen, there is a chance that at least one of them will be retained.  Of course, the benefits of acquiring draft picks if they leave, as free agents might be too good to pass up.

Bullpen:  Kevin Gregg, Rommie Lewis, David Purcey, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, Josh Roenicke.

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When the Blue Jays started the season, it came as a bit of a surprise that the manager Cito Gaston projected that the Jays lineup would live and die by the home run. 

Gaston suggested that his lineup was packed full of potential 20 home run hitters.

“Bautista has a chance to hit maybe 20-25 home runs because he’s done it before,” Gaston said. “Then, of course, you’ve got Hill, you’ve got Lind and Vernon who hit 20 home runs the year before.

“Then you’ve got (Lyle) Overbay you hope can hit you 20 and you have (Edwin) Encarnacion; he might hit 20. “You’re talking about the first six hitters. If (Travis) Snider makes the club, he might do it, too. I think this club right now, the strength is the hitters.”

After all, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were the only two hitters to surpass the twenty home run mark last year, with 35 and 36 respectively. 

Now that September has arrived, those numbers and projections no longer look so outlandish.  The Blue Jays lead the majors in home runs by a landslide, with 208, the next closest team the Boston Red Sox with 178. 

So how close are those projections so far?

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Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that Alex Anthopoulos has signed Ricky Romero to a five year $30.1 million contract extension. This is very odd for Anthopoulos, as he normally gives a bit less money in the early years of his contracts with options for big money later. In this case he gave Romero reasonable money, but this is the largest amount given to a player with less than two years of major league service.

I don’t like this signing at all. It only buys out the first year of his free agency, and I doubt he would get this kind of money in arbitration. My only guess is that there are option years added to the end of this deal that Rosenthal has not discovered.

This continues a trend for Alex Anthopoulos as he continues to lock up the young core of this team. Ricky Romero is definitely a solid pitcher. With a 3.53 ERA in the AL East, he can develop into an ace starter. Indeed earlier in the year his ERA was actually below 3, showing just how dominating he can be.

By locking up Romero to this kind of a contract it will have an effect on the rest of the team. After all, if Romero can get this kind of money why not Shaun Marcum? He is a solid young pitcher, and can develop into a top of the rotation starter. This will also affect the signing of Kyle Drabek once his rookie years end and his arbitration is about to start.

What is important to note here is that Anthopoulos values pitching more than hitting. The deals he gave Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were for less money even though they had outstanding seasons, whereas Romero has not had that great of a season yet.

I hope Anthopoulos has added option years. If he has then this deal can be very fair. If he has not, I sure hope he knows what he is doing. 

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Yunel Escobar is the main player Alex Anthopoulos acquired when he dealt Alex Gonzalez away. Anthopoulos had stated that his plan to build (not rebuild) the Toronto Blue Jays is to get young, controllable players—players whose salary we can control for several years.

When we got rid of Gonzalez, we got rid of a player who is old, whose salary we cannot control beyond next year, and who is having a career year. I have already written why this trade works out great for the Blue Jays, so let’s not go there.

Instead, let’s look at the fact that we can only keep Gonzalez cheaply for one more year; after that, if he keeps up this torrid pace, he will command a much higher salary.

Escobar, on the other hand, is a player whose rights we control for three more years. This means that we can sign him to a contract similar to Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, a small amount of money now with potential for big money later. The thing is we are in the Yankees’ and Red Sox’ division, so we cannot spend as much as them, but we can control these younger players and how much they make.

If we control their salaries, then we can keep saving the money needed to get more top-flight prospects into our system whose salary we can also control, so by the time these guys are being paid big money we have other cheap rookies to offset the cost. In a division that spends so much money, this could be the only way to compete. Kudos to Anthopoulos for doing this.

One of Billy Beane’s most brilliant techniques was smart drafting and getting rid of players as they are about to come to contract years for lots of prospects. Anthopoulos decided he does not need to get rid of his players. Instead, he can structure their contracts to keep them in Toronto for the prime of their careers. Rich teams like the Yankees can have them when they’re old—like say, 35. This could be Moneyball Anthopoulos style.

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We all know that there are certain players who have struggled through the first half of the season. We also know that there are players who notoriously produce better in the second half. Here are five hitters that other owners in your league may be ready to give up on, yet could produce plenty of value in the second half (all stats are through Sunday):

Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
He’s always been a slow starter, though 2010 has been an extreme case. Still, just looking at his second half numbers from the past few seasons gives us an idea of what he can do:

• 2006 – .291, 24 HR, 61 RBI, 51 R
• 2007 – .309, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 45 R
• 2008 – .366, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 48 R
• 2009 – .313, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 47 R

There are a lot of numbers that we can also point to that indicate an improvement should be coming.  First is his BABIP, which is currently at .258. Considering that his career low is .288, which came in his rookie year of 2003, you have to believe that a resurgence is going to come sooner or later.

Second is his HR/FB, which is also at a career low (11.9 percent). He’s never had a mark below 17.8 percent, and he plays in a park that proved to be a hitters haven in 2009. It’s certainly easy to imagine him still surpassing 30 (he’s currently at 13) by year’s end.

While he’s not likely to live up to the first round expectations, you have to know that Teixeira has a hot streak in him. He’s started showing signs, so now may be your last chance to get him at a discount. If someone in your league is fed up with him, he’s well worth the acquisition.

Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles

To say that he’s been a major disappointment is an understatement, despite the solid average. He’s currently hitting .307 with four HR, 27 RBI, and 34 R. So yet again, he has failed to take that next step forward in his progression. Then again, considering he was likely taken as a number two outfielder, he has just failed to produce…period.

There’s nothing in the numbers to make us think that he can’t turn things around. His fly ball rate is down from last season, but right along his career mark (36.2 percent in ‘10 vs. 35.5 percent for his career). His HR/FB, which was over 11.5 percent from 2006-2008, is at just 4.3 percent this season.

He does continue to rip doubles, at 25 for the season, putting him just one behind the leaders (Marlon Byrd & Jayson Werth each have 26).  Sooner or later, some of those balls are going to find their way over the fence. Last season he hit 10 HR in the second half and is not far removed from a 14 HR second half in 2007.

He has been hurt by the absence of Brian Roberts, but if he keeps hitting (which he easily could), the RBI and R will come with it. Couple that with increased power and you certainly have the potential to get a steal. Considering where he was drafted and what you may have to give up to get him, he’s a great buy right now.

Adam Lind – Toronto Blue Jays

It is beginning to look like last season’s 35 HR was a bit of an aberration. All you have to do is look at his HR/FB for the past four seasons to get that indication:

• 2007 – 13.3 percent
• 2008 – 11.0 percent
• 2009 – 19.8 percent
• 2010 – 10.6 percent

Even if he could just get things back to the 2007 mark, there’s reason for optimism, especially when you throw in his BABIP. He’s had terrible luck (.245), and also has been striking out a tremendous amount (27.5 percent).

If he can reduce the strikeouts (he was at 18.1 percent in ‘08 and 18.7 percent in ‘09) and see improved luck, the average will come around. It’s possible he’s trying to hit home runs after his breakout, as his fly ball rate has gone from 36.8 percent to 42.3 percent. Still, it’s hard to believe that it will be a completely lost season.

Now is your opportunity to get him for pennies on the dollar (I actually saw him on the waiver wire of a five outfielder format last week) and given what he did in ‘09, he’s certainly worth the risk.

Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
I’ve discussed him before, but it bears repeating. We have all heard about his potential, but he has not quite shown it yet. His home run per fly ball rate is under 10.0 percent (currently at 8.2 percent). His BABIP is below average, at .283.

Granted, he hasn’t hit many extra base hits (nine doubles and six home runs), but this is still his first full season. He’s now had over 600 total at bats, so it is certainly possible that something clicks in the second half.

Given the lack of depth at the position, he’s certainly worth the gamble.

Carlos Lee – Houston Astros

He’s hit .300 each of the last four seasons and has a career .288 average. Yet, we are supposed to believe he’s a .232 hitter in 2010?

Fat chance. He’s had some terrible luck, with a .232 BABIP. He also just hasn’t had the same type of power, with a HR/FB of 7.9 percent vs. a career mark of 13.0 percent.

Playing in that ballpark, there’s no chance that either of those things continue. Just look at his second half marks from the past few seasons:

• 2007 – .311, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 45 R
• 2008 – .372, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 15 R (in just 78 AB)
• 2009 – .291, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 30 R

While he’s not a notorious slow starter, there’s little question about his bat. If you need runs scored, he’s not the answer. However, if you are looking for some power in the second half, he’s well worth the gamble.

What are your thoughts on these five players? Would you try to buy low on any of them?  Who else are you targeting in your leagues?

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports:

• Brett Cecil
• Wade Davis
• David DeJesus
• Jason Donald
• John Ely
• Brett Gardner
• John Jaso
• Brad Lincoln
• Jonathan Lucroy
• Kris Medlen
• Jonathan Niese
• Andrew Oliver
• Manny Parra
• Jake Peavy
• Sean Rodriguez
• Mike Stanton
• Andres Torres

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