When it became known that Adam Wainwright was injured and may need Tommy John surgery, virtually every sports media outlet was all over it.
like any serious sports fan, questions from every angle must have come to your mind:
“How exactly did he get injured?”
“How will the Cardinals adapt to his injury?”
“Does this affect Albert Pujols?”
However, one person that may be of particular concern is Chris Carpenter.
With that being said, don’t be surprised if he moves on. Take a look.
It was announced today that Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals will need Tommy John surgery.
Having been one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball over the last couple seasons, this is a huge blow to a Cardinals team that could be trying to make one last run with slugger Albert Pujols before he tests free agency.
Here’s a look at other pitchers who have had the surgery and what it cost their teams.
As 9 Inning Blog reported yesterday, Adam Wainwright will indeed continue with his decision to undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.
Wainwright did go for a second opinion today and it did conclude that he will have to go under the knife.
Tommy John surgery usually requires 12-18 months of rehabilitation. Tough break for a kid who was slowly coming up in the ranks as a pitcher.
Wainwright has gone the past four seasons winning 10+ games and finished the past two seasons with 200+ strikeouts. Last year, he was 20-11 with 2.42 ERA and the previous year, he was 19-8 with 2.63 ERA.
Cardinals will be able to void their $9 million option for 2012 and $12 million for 2013, so it will be interesting to see how they handle his contract situation.
The bigger question is who is going to replace the right-hander. I offered some insight on who could replace him yesterday and came to the conclusion that it will be Kyle McClellan.
However, a few more names have been thrown in the mix as well. Ian Snell, Lance Lynn, Brian Tallet and Miguel Batista could also be part of the in-house mix that gets the job. Also, consider Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Bonderman, who both have yet to find jobs in the majors this season.
I also heard that if either the Yankees’ Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia do not make the team out of Spring Training, they have an out-clause in their contracts where they could get released.
If anything, Wainwright’s 15+ wins are going to be very difficult to replace, especially in the ever more competitive National League Central.
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Just to clarify:
Yes, I know that Adam Wainwright is in St. Louis.
And yes, I know that the Yankees are in no way directly related to him.
Yet, Adam Wainwright’s injury could spell bad news for the Yankees as they begin their long climb back to the top.
We all know of the Yankees’ rotation woes. It’s been well-documented through every single form of media available to the masses. Nos. 1 through 3 are a lock, and that’s not saying much as Hughes and Burnett are question marks, and Nos. 4 and 5 are up for grabs.
The Yankees have plenty of options for those last two spots, but none that they are absolutely in love with. Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi and David Phelps are all in competition for those last spots, and each one is just as inconsistent as the last.
There are a few intriguing free agents left, such as veteran Kevin Millwood, the oft-injured Jeremy Bonderman, left-hander Doug Davis and even the injury magnet himself, Ben Sheets.
The Yankees would prefer to offer any free-agent starter a minor league deal, this way, there’s no guarantee that they’ll crack the rotation. They would rather have a competition this spring, and rightly so.
Now, even if they wanted to sign any of the aforementioned free agents, they’ll have very stiff competition from the Cardinals.
The Cardinals can, and probably will, offer a major league contract to any free-agent pitcher they chase after, and, of course, a major league contract versus a minor league contract is a joke.
The Yankees already attempted to entice Millwood with a minor league deal, but to no avail. He has chosen to hold out for a major league contract, and he may get one in St. Louis.
Having Millwood could really help the Bombers. An innings eater his entire career, Millwood has the potential to give the Yanks 180-190 solid innings. For argument’s sake, let’s just say that Sergio Mitre occupies the spot that Millwood doesn’t.
The only time that Mitre has cracked the 100-inning plateau was in 2007 when he threw 149 innings for the Marlins. He was 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. In my personal opinion, keeping Mitre out of the rotation is incentive enough to sign Millwood.
Remember that Chris Carpenter to the Yankees rumor?
Well, you can forget about that one now.
I’m not sure how reliable that rumor was, but it’s moot now. The Cardinals will be extremely reluctant to trade their ace now that his co-ace has gone down for the season.
Adam Wainwright’s injury affects more than just the Cardinals. The Yankees will have to fight even harder to attract some of the remaining free agent arms. If not, the Yankees are going to have to catch lightning in a bottle in 2011 and hope that Hughes, Burnett and the fourth and fifth starters will produce.
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Reports began to surface early Wednesday morning that St. Louis Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright was experiencing pain in his throwing elbow and heard a mysterious “pop” when pitching batting practice on Tuesday.
Most baseball fans will remember it was a mysterious “pop” that forced young phenom Stephen Strasburg to undergo Tommy John surgery this past season.
All signs indicate that Wainwright will have to do the same, which will shelf him for anywhere from 12-18 months and guarantee he doesn’t pitch for the Cardinals in the 2011 season.
With Adam Wainwright likely out for the season, the St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation starts to look a little thin.
Chris Carpenter becomes the de facto ace, although he is no stranger to serious injury himself.
Jaime Garcia slides into the second spot in the rotation and will have to fight off a second half lull that sent his season into a tailspin last year, as well as the dreaded sophomore slump so prevalent in baseball.
Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse will round out the back end of the rotation with a fifth starter yet to be named.
All in all, it isn’t an overly impressive rotation–especially if Garcia is unable to repeat his 2010 performance or Carpenter misses any time due to injury.
Therefore, the Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation is now, without a doubt, the best in the NL Central—if it wasn’t already.
After all, the Cincinnati Reds have named Edinson Volquez their Opening Day starter. Volquez has been anything but consistent; he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2008.
Paul Maholm will likely start for the Pittsburgh Pirates—yawn.
Ryan Dempster is opening the season for the Chicago Cubs, as Carlos Zambrano is a headcase and Wandy Rodriguez has taken the reigns in Houston after the departure of Roy Oswalt.
None of those names instill fear in opposing hitters.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo—all Opening Day starters for their respective 2010 clubs—to choose from as well, as a solid veteran like Randy Wolf rounding out their rotation with Chris Narveson in the fifth spot.
The only NL Central team with a better offense than the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010 was the division winning Cincinnati Reds.
While there is reason to believe the Reds and their young offensive core should put up similar numbers to last season, there are more reasons to assume the Milwaukee Brewers should improve offensively across the board.
The Brewers’ two superstars–—Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder—both had down seasons, with Fielder possibly having the worst of his career.
That shouldn’t be the case this year, as he and Scott Boras have a huge contract waiting for them at the end of the season if he is able to return to his run-producing, home run slugging ways.
Braun’s best two seasons have been in 2007 and 2008, when the team was in contention until the very end.
It is assumed that the Milwaukee Brewers will be in the playoff hunt until the very end, which could lead to a career season from Ryan Braun.
With the St. Louis Cardinals suffering a major blow from the loss of Adam Wainwright and the Cincinnati Reds having more questions than answers with their pitching staff, it seems as though a recipe for success is beginning to brew in Milwaukee.
2011 could be the year of the beer in the NL Central.
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Word hit Wednesday morning that Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright has been flown back to St. Louis to have his right elbow examined by team doctors.
The Cardinals (and fantasy managers) across the country are holding their collective breaths, but it’s expected that Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery, which would sideline him for 12-18 months.
This is a devastating blow to not only the Cardinals, but those who own Wainwright as well. The 29-year-old was among the top-ranked starting pitchers this season, checking in as the No. 2 pitcher (27th overall) in our rankings.
Our updated starting pitcher rankings now exclude Wainwright, but everything else is the same. Click on each player for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!
2011 TOP 10 STARTING PITCHERS
1. Roy Halladay (SP – Phi): Five-year averages: 236 IP, 18 wins, 1.42 BB/9, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Entering age-34 season, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t continue dominance.
2. Tim Lincecum (SP – SF): Regression in K/9, BB/9, HR/9, batting average against, ERA and WHIP last year after improving all categories in previous two seasons. Decrease in fastball velocity and fourth-least effective curveball also contributed to his 2010 decline. Throw out unlucky August, however, and his season ERA drops from 3.43 to 2.79.
3. Felix Hernandez (SP – Sea): Lowest ERA (2.27) in majors last year to go along with stellar peripherals: 8.36 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, .210 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. Low BABIP (.263) and sub-2.50 ERA curse, however, suggest regression in 2011.
4. Cliff Lee (SP – Phi): Since 2007 minor-league stint, he has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams. And now he’s a No. 2 starter on a team with plenty of run support.
5. Josh Johnson (SP – Fla): Since 2005, only five starters have an ERA lower than Johnson’s mark of 3.10 (min. 600 innings). Top-five among qualified starters last season in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, contact rate and swinging strike rate.
6. Jon Lester (SP – Bos): Has the ninth-best ERA (3.29) among starters who’ve logged 600 innings since 2008. Of the eight pitchers with a lower ERA during that time, only Lincecum has a better strikeout rate (10.25) than Lester (8.72).
7. Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD): Youngest of 45 pitchers that logged 200-plus innings in 2010. Of that group, only Lincecum, Lester and Weaver posted a strikeout rate better than Kershaw’s (9.34). His age-21 (2009) and age-22 (2010) seasons show he’s well ahead of where Felix Hernandez was at the same ages.
8. Cole Hamels (SP – Phi): Only eight pitchers since 2007 (min. 800 IP) have lower ERA than his total of 3.44. Ranked second among qualified starters last year in contact rate, swinging strike rate, and 10th in strikeout rate. Clearly best No. 4 starter in the majors; should lead to career high in wins this season.
9. Zack Greinke (SP – Mil): Wide range of ERAs (3.47, 2.16, 4.17) and K/9 (7.40, 9.50, 8.14) in last three seasons. 2010 LOB rate (65.3 percent), FIP (3.34) and xFIP (3.76) indicate he was better than 4.17 ERA. Numbers against N.L. since 2008 (7-2, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 1.57 BB/9) suggest forthcoming success in Milwaukee.
10. Ubaldo Jimenez (SP – Col): Improved innings pitched, wins, strikeout rate, ERA, WHIP and batting average against in each of last three seasons. Totals after June, however, are discouraging: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.43 K/9, 4.19 BB/9 in 120 1/3 innings. Needs to lower his walk rate (3.74 in 2010) to become true elite fantasy pitcher.
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The St. Louis Cardinals have recently suffered a devastating blow upon learning that star pitcher Adam Wainwright has a severe elbow injury. Wainwright won 20 games for the Cards in 2010, posting a 2.42 ERA.
Unfortunately, injured aces around the major leagues is nothing new.
The Cubs lost top young pitcher Mark Prior to injury, and Brandon Webb, now with the Texas Rangers, is another sad story.
Let’s take a look at some top aces from the recent years who have faced career-threatening surgery.
The St. Louis Cardinals looked like they had everything ready for one final good run in 2011, before Albert Pujols hits the free agent market. Unfortunately, they have now received possibly the worst news they could hear outside of Pujols signing elsewhere.
Adam Wainwright, ace pitcher for the Cardinals, is being sent back to St. Louis to have tests done on his elbow, and Tommy John surgery is likely. If this is the case, then he’s done for the 2011 season.
Besides dashing playoff hopes for the season (the Reds and Brewers make this a very tough division), this could throw a wrench in the works on the Albert Pujols contract situation. How will this injury affect Pujols’ re-signing with the Cardinals?
It has been a rough 2011 so far for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Contract discussions with uber-stud Albert Pujols went south pretty quickly, with negotiations now called off until after the season. The likelihood of Pujols hitting the free agency pool has greatly increased.
But perhaps the most damaging news for the Cardinals’ 2011 season (with direct effect on fantasy baseball rankings for the year) may have come today in the form of Adam Wainwright and a damaged ligament in the ace pitcher’s right elbow.
Wainwright, who has finished in the top three of the NL Cy Young award voting the past two seasons, injured a ligament in his right elbow during practice Wednesday … the same ligament that was causing some discomfort at the end of the 2010 season.
Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak considered it a “significant injury,” and signs are pointing more and more towards Tommy John surgery for the 29-year-old.
From a fantasy standpoint, Wainwright has emerged as an elite option at a position filled with potential upside, but also numerous red flags. His 2.42 ERA in 230 innings pitched during the 2010 campaign marked the fourth consecutive season that he trimmed his ERA. He struck out 425 batters in the past two years, winning 39 games and recording six complete games during that span.
Obviously from a redraft standpoint, if Wainwright does require Tommy John surgery, he won’t find himself anywhere near a mound in 2011. He should be removed from all redraft rankings at this point, and his status altered in keeper and dynasty leagues, accordingly.
The possible blow also cripples the chances that the Cardinals can win an increasingly competitive NL-Central, as the squad at the moment could be looking at a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and P.J. Walters barring any free agent signings.
If you are drafting a fantasy squad in the coming days, be sure to watch the Wainwright situation closely. For the time being, you can definitely drop him from my recent 2011 fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings short of a miracle recovery that doesn’t require surgery. For the rest of my current rankings, go here: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
While quirky advice, my Harry Stamper strategy to draft day dominance has become pretty popular.
For all your hard-hitting fantasy baseball advice, go to www.chinstrapninjas.com
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Those tryouts for a “sixth starter” seemed to have just gotten a lot more significant today, after Adam Wainwright was shut down with what is being called a “significant elbow injury.”
Wainwright has had major improvement in almost every season since his debut in 2005, and over the last four seasons, Wainwright has a total 17.5 WAR; compared to the rest of the league, it’s 11th among all starters.
Compared to Chris Carpenter’s 9.9 WAR in those seasons, Wainwright will make out to be a huge loss in 2011.
The Cardinals will now have about five weeks to find a replacement and Tony La Russa has already declared that the solution for their rotation will come from within, which most likely won’t involve a current low-end free agent such as Kevin Millwood.
One likely candidate could be Kyle McClellan who, despite being a reliever through his Major League career, was already going to be tried as a starter this Spring and that chance seems to be a lot higher now.
McClellan has all the makings of a quality starter, with four pitches, including his fastball, that ranked at 3.5 runs above average. McClellan’s projected FIP for 2011 is a respectable 3.96 and if it could translate as a starter, the Cardinals would benefit more than expected.
On the prospect side, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn are possibilities if the Cardinals are willing to stretch. Despite being the Cardinals No. 1 prospect, Miller seems more likely to begin the season at low-A for the Cardinals, with a lot left to accomplish. Miller has a high-quality fastball that can run up to 98 mph with improving command.
In his 104 innings last season, Miller also held left-handed hitters to a .194 average. Miller reached single-A last season and looks likely to be back there as I said, but if something clicks, Miller could see a couple starts come August or September.
Lance Lynn, who came into 2010 as the Cardinals No. 1 prospect, slid down to No. 7 this offseason, and the fact that he seems to be changing in a negative way won’t likely draw any confidence from the Cardinals.
Lynn’s FIP rose to 4.43 in his full season at Triple-A, which was a significant increase from his 3.47 in his 2009 season at the Double-A level. Either way, Lynn will have a chance with the Cardinals, because of the fact that he has significant experience as a starter.
Another name worth mentioning is P.J. Walters, who amassed a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts in Triple-A last season, despite having a 6.00 ERA in seven games last season with the Cardinals, but most of the runs given up were as a reliever, not a starter.
His threestarts seemed to be a story of extremes, as he started by throwing five shutout innings against San Diego, then lit-up by the Reds for seven runs in four innings. In his last outing against the Pirates, he only had to throw 80 pitches through seven innings, and didn’t surrender a run.
Adam Ottavino was also another player who made his debut in 2010 for the Cardinals. Despite posting a 8.46 ERA in 22 innings, Ottavino, who is recovering from a shoulder injury, had also made some real progress at Triple-A as well, as he had increased his strikeout rate while more than halving his walk rate from 2009. He only threw 47.2 innings in Memphis, but as a first-round pick, Ottavino seems to have a legit shot at getting a chance with the Cardinals.
If nothing from within can make an impact, the Cardinals might have to look outside and go after someone like Jeremy Bonderman or possibly Kevin Millwood.
Bonderman posted a 5.58 ERA in 29 starts with the Tigers last season, but if limited, he could have an impact and is currently projected to have a 4.58 ERA in 2010. In 31 starts with the Orioles, Millwood had a 5.10 ERA, but despite that, is also projected to improve, to a 4.63 ERA.
Despite where the Cardinals go for starts, beyond innings, no one can replace Adam Wainwright. Shelby Miller seems to be the future for the Cardinals, but between now and then, the Cardinals must find someone or find themselves in fourth place come July.
FIP = Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale
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