Kuzul

Call it a transition year. Call it an unlucky year. Call it whatever you want, but the 2010 Boston Red Sox simply failed to meet the expectations of management, fans, and baseball pundits across the country.

There are a handful of factors worthy of blame here, including general manager Theo Epstein’s reluctance to part with prospects to shore up the bullpen or acquire a top-flight pitcher like Cliff Lee. But pointing fingers is no way to win a World Series.

So with the 2010 Red Sox season officially in the books, let’s forget the past and take a closer look at the decisions that will help shape the 2011 Boston Red Sox. First up, Boston’s free agent and arbitration-eligible players.

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Sometimes when making an effort to rebuild a team, many general managers make the mistake of choosing the best player available on the market rather than addressing one particular area where the squad is weak.

Instead of paying millions for a superstar, then trying to find out how or where a certain player will mesh with the team, the good general managers will first break down the specific needs of the club and make a checklist, then when considering any new additions, they check to make sure that each prospective player meet the required criteria.

Such should be the case with the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason.

Many people, including Los Angeles General Manager Ned Colletti, continue to refer to the Dodgers’ “core” talent of players. There’s no question that a core of talent does indeed exist, but there are a few tweaks that are required and several areas that need to be addressed before the Dodgers can once again become contenders.

Seemingly, money will be the biggest question mark for Los Angeles when assembling a roster and preparing for next season. However, several experts, including Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles, believe that owner Frank McCourt will do all that he can to push the team payroll up to the $100 million range.

After all, the Dodger fan faithful is the driving force of the franchise, and if the fans aren’t happy, then the seats aren’t filled at Dodger Stadium, and the team doesn’t generate dollars. Without question, after everything the McCourts have put the organization through, Frank should be on the ground kneeling to his own employees and the fans in an effort to assure them that he will do his best to put the Dodgers back on the right track.

This includes spending money on several high-quality big market players, and not your everyday 10-year veteran who is lurking in the bargain basement. Whether it be through free agency or trades, there isn’t any reason that Los Angeles shouldn’t at least improve from the 2010 season if careful moves are made.

Yet before even targeting a specific player, Colletti should make a list of specific needs, prioritize them, then decide which available players on the market fulfill the requirements he chose to list.

The following slides show five specific areas that Colletti should consider when putting together the Los Angeles Dodgers roster this winter.  

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With the 2010 regular season coming to a close and the playoff picture starting to become a little clearer every day, there are some teams that will focus on free agency and which players they are going to bring back or which players they could possibly land this offseason.

One of those players that will hit the free agent market is third baseman Adrian Beltre, who seemed to reinvent himself this season as a member of the Boston Red Sox.

Beltre has hit .325 with 28 home runs and 102 runs batted in, his best combined numbers since his 2004 season as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Beltre isn’t the only third baseman that will be on the market. Here are 10 of the top third basemen that will be looked at in free agency.

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Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz reached the 100-RBI plateau on the same night this week, creating a fitting link between two players who figure to be critical pieces in the most significant Red Sox off-season in recent memory.

Ortiz is likely to return, with the Red Sox picking up his option for next year, no matter how much the veteran slugger pushes for a multi-year contract. But Beltre remains something of a mystery, and the decision is anything but an easy one.

Beltre has certainly given the Red Sox everything they hoped for this season and more. He has spent the entire season hitting better than .300. He hit 20-plus homers and topped 100 RBI.

He played through pain. He was embraced in the clubhouse and beloved by his manager. Despite an early flurry of errors, he provided his usual steady and impressive defense.

And yet any possible hesitation to ink him to an expensive, long-term deal is understandable.

Because he’s had a season like this once before.

Beltre, of course, famously belted 48 homers in a contract year with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004, massaging that outburst into a lucrative pact with the Seattle Mariners that was followed by four years of uneven and injury-marred play.

There were indeed extenuating circumstances, most notably the ballpark he played in, which is about as forgiving to hitters as a cement wall is to outfielders. But there’s still something that makes me wary about a player whose only breakout seasons have come when a free agency feeding frenzy loomed on the horizon.

See Drew, J.D.

Beltre has never hit more than 26 homers in any season other than this year and 2004. Those also happen to be the only seasons in which he produced a batting average better than .300—or better than .290, for that matter—and those campaigns remain the only two in which he’s reached 100 RBI.

Cause for concern, no?

Those are the facts. This is my opinion: I think Beltre is still worth a contract, at the right price.

If someone swoops in and offers him $18 million a season, the Sox should let him walk without a second thought. They still have options—move Youkilis to third and sign a stop-gap first baseman or keep Youk at first and find a fill-in at third for a year—that are viable enough so as not to have to pay a silly ransom just to hang on to Beltre.

But if he is willing to return for three years or so at somewhere in the neighborhood of a modest raise, I’d sign him in a heartbeat.

And here’s why.

First of all, the Sox need him. They already have a dearth of pop in the lineup, and losing Beltre would be another step back. Second of all, I think he can closely replicate at least a portion of his numbers if he returns to Boston.

Beltre appears to thrive in the pressure-cooker that is the Boston media market, and also has—as any solid-swinging right-hander does—the right stroke for Fenway Park.

Do I expect Beltre to reproduce a .320-30-100 type of season?

No. But there’s no reason to expect less than a .280-25-85, which I would certainly take when you factor in his superb defense.

Beltre may never be the slugger he was for one season in 2004, but there’s reason to believe he won’t be the guy who hit eight homers in 2009, either. He figures to be a productive, reliable gamer at the plate with a gold glove on one arm and a rifle on the other in the field.

That’s something I’d be willing to pay market value for over the next several seasons.

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The Boston Red Sox are for all intents and purposes finished with their 2010 season. It has been a long and tough campaign which saw them virtually eliminated by their own inability to stay on the field.

Too many key injuries will derail any team let alone a team faced with a game of musical chairs with Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees.

The Red Sox still retain a solid core of players and with the chance that Tampa Bay may not be able to afford some its talent with expiring contracts, those Red Sox fans already moving onto the 2011 season have a few reasons to smile.

With that said this is a team that needs a few serious improvements and here are the top five changes that need to be made in order to both make the playoffs and contend for a World Series in 2011.

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One month ago and this conversation would not have even scratched the surface of Red Sox nation.

But after Jed Lowrie’s 4-for-4 performance (including a home run and three singles) in a 10-8 win over the New York Yankees, the debate suddenly becomes a valid one.

Lowrie has become Boston’s starting shortstop after a rotator cuff injury sidelined opening day starter Marco Scutaro.

Scutaro will be healthy for 2011 and will be in the final year of his contract. Lowrie, however, will also be healthy for a change and offers more upside than the 34-year old journeyman. 

So who will manager Terry Francona decide to go with?

Here is a breakdown of the case for each player and a suggestion of what the final decision might be. Share your thoughts below.

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Most years, when it comes time to select the MVP of each league, there is one standout candidate. Almost no one raised any dispute to the selections of Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols as the most valuable players of their respective leagues in 2009, and Pujols was similarly incontrovertible as the NL MVP in 2008.

In the American League this season, the super-stud is Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. Hamilton has missed time with injury, but belted 31 home runs and posted a .361/.414/.635 line through Sunday’s action.

But what if Hamilton were less dominant? Better yet, what if (and it isn’t a stretch to suggest it) the voters don’t recognize his many dimensions of voluminous value? Who would win? Who WILL win?

If the answer isn’t Hamilton, then justice will not have been served, Still, it can’t hurt to dream a little bit. Here are the best cases to be made for four American League maulers who have garnered less fanfare than Hamilton, and an argument for the man himself.

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Not since David Wright’s May slump have there been any serious rumblings about the Mets trading their star third baseman, but the question has recently been posed: Would Wright match up well with the Boston Red Sox, and would a trade be possible this winter?

The question itself is not without merit given Boston third baseman Adrian Beltre’s impending free agency, Wright’s burgeoning salary and declining production, and the Mets’ aging roster of annual under achievers.

Surely some Mets fans will consider the question itself just another demonstration of the Red Sox Nation’s arrogance, for how could anyone possibly think the Mets would or should part with the face of their franchise?

Just as surely, many the Red Sox Faithful will leap at the prospect like lobsters from a boiling pot, for who wouldn’t want to acquire David Wright?

Let’s examine the facts and see how desirable and possible a Wright-to-Boston deal might be.

Wright turns 28 this December and remains under contract through 2012 with a club option for 2013, so Wright will still be a relatively young 30-year-old player when he hits free agency.

Through 2010, Wright has been paid $23.5 million on his seven-year, $68.5 million deal, so this heavily back-loaded contract is about to come home to roost. At season’s end, Wright will still be owed $45 million, including that 2013 option.

That said, Wright’s production has been down significantly since the beginning of 2009.

In 2009, Wright hit .307 with only 10 homers and a career-worst 837 OPS. In 2010, Wright has improved offensively, hitting .290 with 23 homers and an 864 OPS. Still, Wright’s overall production on both offense and defense is dramatically lower than what it once was.

During his first four full seasons, from 2005 to 2008, Wright produced an average of $26.7 million in sabermetric value. In 2009 and 2010, Wright has respectively produced only $15.3 million and $15.6 million.

This sharp drop is due in large part to Wright’s declining defensive production. A Gold-Glove winner in 2007 and 2008, Wright has played below-average defense over the past two years. In fact, Wright’s range has decreased to such an extent that he is now a below-average defender for his career.

None of this is to suggest that David Wright is a has-been star. Perhaps, Wright’s bat and glove have only temporarily slacked off. Certainly, maintaining MVP-caliber production year after year is no easy task.

Yet these numbers should cast doubt on the sagacity of any team, not just the Red Sox, trading for David Wright.

Given Boston general manager Theo Epstein’s alacrity for sabermetrics and run prevention, Wright would seem a poor match with Boston.

Wright’s declining defense speaks for itself, and should his sabermetric value hold steady around $15 million annually, Wright would only just be worth the remaining money on his contract.

As an alternative to resigning Beltre, Wright would probably cost the same in yearly salary and produce less.

What’s more, retaining Beltre can be achieved with the mere stroke of the pen, but acquiring the face of the Mets would surely require prized prospects and major-league-ready talent in addition to an equivalent financial commitment.

At the end of the day, Boston wouldn’t and shouldn’t be interested in trading for Wright, but New York should definitely be thinking about shipping him elsewhere.

For breaking Red Sox news updates, follow Peter on Twitter at BoSoxUpdate.

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The Boston Red Sox are not your garden variety “drop dead and stay dead” team late in the season, at least not in the Tito Francona era. 

Bizarre occurrences have a certain fondness of popping up in September heading into October months.

Terry Francona merits an insane measure of praise for the Red Sox preservation of a potential playoff run, but plugging the young farm hands into the everyday lineup is only half of the equation.  Stepping up and taking full advantage in producing in the lineup is a completely difficult task to ask out of green talent fresh off the farm.

So far so good; do the best you can with what you have to work with.

Boston’s minor league system can go toe-to-toe, maybe even mowing down all other farm systems in the majors period.

Twenty-two games remain on the Boston Red Sox regular season schedule.  Following last night’s 11-5 five home run-filled outburst versus the AL Wild Card-leading Rays, Boston climbed to within 6 ½ games of Tampa Bay.  Stacking on, Boston it’s reclaimed a half game lead over the frequently shifting Chicago White Sox.

With the prospect of piecing together a last gasp run, the Boston Red Sox margin for error nears zero, but a sense of urgency singed in a usual suspect leaves a certain “what if” in the minds of other playoff contenders.

Stranger things have happened in the past.

Shortstop Marco Scutaro is currently gutting out an excruciating rotator cuff injury while sustaining the most consistency in Red Sox hitters outside of Adrian Beltre.  Scutaro (9,10) homered twice piling on in last night’s come from behind victory in the rubber game against division rival Tampa Bay.

Terry Francona’s offense carries on their torrid tempo marching in the run production parade with help from the white hot Victor Martinez.  David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, and Adrian follow V-Mart in a resurgent hitting practicum as of late.      

Boston’s obvious ache keeping them from gaining precious ground is the horrendous performance of their bullpen. 

Analysts and other writers have repeatedly mentioned the demeanor of the formally unfailing execution of free spirit closer Jonathan Papelbon, described as checking out.

Sadly, they may perhaps hit the nail on the head.  However, dealing Manny Delcarmen to the Colorado Rockies patches a gaping hole in a swiftly leaking setup man setting.  

Do you really see the Tampa Bay Rays overtaking the New York Yankees for good to win the American League East crown?

No, not when Yankee hitters have an addiction to dead of the ninth inning dramatics.

Until that third out is recorded, disregard the assumption the Yankees are done from game to game.  The Yankees will hold on to win the American League East easier than most think.  There’s too much fire power and clutch play despite the next gear the Rays have hit up to this point.

Major League Baseball’s postseason fires out its first pitch on October 6.

Not much time left.

The question isn’t, “Do the Red Sox possess the intestinal fortitude to survive the final stretch gauntlet?”

Quite the contrary.

Does time permit the Red Sox from digging deep into their innermost section of the intestinal track to maintain the fraught excavation it takes to make the run.  

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The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo has tweeted some speculation that the Chicago White Sox’ Paul Konerko may be a fit at Fenway in 2011. Frankly, the idea that Theo Epstein would sign Chicago’s overachieving 34-year-old first baseman is laughable.

It seems likely to this writer that Mr. Cafardo is simply a man of the moment. That is, with the White Sox visiting Beantown this weekend for a three-game set, Mr. Cafardo is participating in some amateur scouting. Were the Colorado Rockies in town, Cafardo might easily be tweeting that Kaz Matsui could be a good match with the 2011 Sox.

In fact, it seems to this writer that Cafardo, like many an overzealous fan, is simply enamoured of the hot player he sees before him, for under no logical circumstances should the Red Sox consider signing Konerko. Today, at least, Cafardo seems more emotional fanatic than critical journalist.

First, I doubt Cafardo is suggesting the Red Sox sign Konerko to replace David Ortiz at designated hitter. Konerko will cost more than Ortiz, a hometown hero who can provide similar power for less than half the price. For those confused by the numbers, rest assured that Ortiz’ $12.5 million club option will be declined, but the Red Sox will probably tender him an offer for two to three years and $18 to $24 million.

Consider, therefore, that Paul Konerko can play first base only. Were the Red Sox to sign Konerko, they would have to let third baseman Adrian Beltre walk and permanently shift current first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third.

For an organization that values strong defense, these moves would be disastrous. While Kevin Youkilis has won a Gold Glove at first, Konerko is a below-average defender whose 2010 UZR/150 rests at a pathetic -11.9.

Meanwhile, over at the hot corner, Adrian Beltre possesses a career UZR/150 of 15.6. Youkilis owns a respectable, but less impressive, 6.9 mark.

The aggregate defensive change for the Sox were they to sign Konerko would be to downgrade the corner infield positions by a UZR/150 of 28.1.

For those who don’t entirely understand Ultimate Zone Rating, decreasing by 28.1 would lead to a lot of angry Red Sox pitchers.

Offensively, signing Konerko and bidding Beltre goodbye might be a short-term wash. Both Beltre (.321 AVG/918 OPS/25 HR) and Konerko (.319 AVG/986 OPS/33 HR) are enjoying near-career years. Neither should be expected to replicate this type of production in 2011.

However, even if both Beltre and Konerko can keep it up, Beltre has youth on his side. Konerko will be 35 on opening day next season. Beltre will be turning 32 that week. Those three years are mammoth in baseball.

Assuming that both Beltre and Konerko will command multi-year contracts this winter, Beltre is the far safer bet.

Since 2005, Beltre has averaged just over $15 million per year in sabermetric value. A fair contract offer would be four years and $60 million. At the contract’s conclusion, Beltre would be 35.

Conversely, in that same span, Konerko has averaged just under $12 million per year sabermetrically. At his age, however, it would be dangerous to offer Konerko more than two years and $24 million. Konerko will want more.

To this writer’s knowledge, Cafardo is the first to wonder if Konerko and Boston might be a good match. He should be the last.

Just a suggestion, but Cafardo might spend less time tweeting about visiting first basemen and more time watching the hometown third baseman. The Red Sox already have a first basemen, and between Beltre and Konerko only one belongs in Boston. He’s at the hot corner.

For breaking Red Sox news updates, follow Peter on Twitter at BoSoxUpdate.

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