Kuzul

Adrian Beltre is in the Dominican Republic for David Ortiz’ charity golf tournament.

This afternoon he provided an exclusive interview to the Boston Globe in which he said, “There’s a lot going on right now, but I do hope I stay with the Red Sox.”

Was he speaking from the heart, or was the sound bite given to him by Scott Boras to keep the Red Sox front office biting at the bait on the agent’s hook?

Only time will tell, but it would be nice to think that Beltre understands the benefits of playing with a contender—in Fenway Park—in a perpetual playoff atmosphere.

His comments will serve to give the Red Sox Nation hope that he will return to the hot corner in Boston.

Here are a few more of Beltre’s comments—

“I got used to seeing the park full in the first inning and still full in the ninth inning. I liked that atmosphere…”.

“If everything was close to the same, I would go back to Boston. But we have to see. The number of years is what is important to me.”

“I would to play with these guys again, (they) are my friends and they made me feel part of the team. I was disappointed Victor (Martinez) left because he helped make me comfortable. But I had a feeling that would happen because he wasn’t happy with how (the Red Sox) approached (negotiations) with him. But I would still come back. I liked playing there and I want to be with a contender.”

Hmmm, does that mean if the years are right he might give the Red Sox a hometown discount to get a deal done?

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The Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy recently entertained the idea the Red Sox would make a serious run to sign free agent shortstop Derek Jeter.

Rumors of a Jeter-to-Boston move have been afloat since negotiations between Derek and Yankees ownership have significantly chilled. Then, the New York Post ran a picture of Jeter on the back page, sporting a photo-shopped Red Sox jersey and hat.

As a Red Sox fan, I find the prospect of Jeter ending his career in Boston quite humorous. If he were a fairly inexpensive player and fine with the idea that his role as a starter wouldn’t be guaranteed over the long term, I wouldn’t have much of a problem with the Red Sox going after him.

But Derek Jeter is not a role-player. He’s made it perfectly clear that he’s not looking for a pay cut or a hometown discount. While the idea that Jeter could get his 3,000th career hit in a Boston uniform is a nice thought, it’s not worth $45 million.

In his article, Shaughnessy’s normally mediocre prose bordered on putridity. Vast, unsupported generalizations tumble over each other, all in an attempt to appear relevant and in the know. Statements like these are peppered all over Shaughnessy’s piece:

“I don’t care if Jeter is way past his prime or if the Sox would have to wildly overpay a player of his diminished skills.”

The fact of the matter is Shaughnessy is wrong. Derek Jeter doesn’t belong on the Boston Red Sox.

As most of you know, catcher Victor Martinez recently signed a four-year, $50 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. The move was, for the most part, unpopular in Boston, as his bat has been one of the strongest presences in the middle of the Red Sox lineup over the last season-and-a-half.

But the move, however unpopular, can be supported by the idea that the Sox would likely end up overpaying for him. Catchers notoriously begin to decline in their early mid-30s; Martinez will be 32 to start next season. The Sox don’t want to commit multiple millions of dollars to a player who will likely end up only a part-time catcher, making just as many appearances at DH or 1B as he would behind the plate. The declining role of the DH in the AL is giving managers more and more roster flexibility, so Martinez’ numbers wouldn’t warrant a permanent residence their or at first base, perhaps the deepest position in baseball.

Jeter, just like Martinez, probably has limited time left as an everyday Major League shortstop. No longer the athlete he once was, the 36-year-old doesn’t range nearly as far in the hole as he used to, and his defense has suffered. All signs point to an eventual transition to third base or even DH.

So, I’ll pose this question. Why would the Red Sox sign Jeter to a deal of similar or greater length/money to the deal Martinez received from Detroit? Both pose the same questions in terms of long-term production versus their career dominance of their respective positions. The only differences? Martinez is four years younger, and hasn’t begun to slip yet. Just compare their 2010 numbers:

Jeter:         663 AB   179 H   10 HR   67 RBI   .270/.340/.370

Martinez:   493 AB   149 H   20 HR   79 RBI   .302/.351/.493

Given the same number of ABs as Jeter, Martinez would have well exceeded him in hits, and already surpasses him in every other offensive category. Martinez is a better fit for Boston than Jeter is, but the Red Sox let him go. It just wouldn’t make any sense to then pursue Jeter.

And if Jeter were to come to Boston, he probably wouldn’t have a role as the shortstop. It might not seem like it, but the Sox have some decent options in the six hole going into 2011. The Red Sox have veteran Marco Scutaro under contract for one more year and $5 million. His 2010 numbers might not seem that impressive…until you compare them to Jeter’s:

Jeter:     663 AB   179 H   10 HR   67 RBI   .270/.340/.370

Scutaro: 632 AB   174 H   11 HR   56 RBI   .275/.333/.388

For one fourth of the cost, Scutaro provided nearly identical production to Jeter in 2010.

Also, there are a number of underlying factors that fans of other teams might overlook when evaluating Scutaro’s performance in 2010. Despite playing nearly the entire season with neck and shoulder injuries, Scutaro appeared in 150 games for the Sox in 2010. He was one of the few constants on an otherwise injury-laden Red Sox team. Scutaro’s injuries severely impacted his range going to his right side, yet he was reliably defensively. Also, with runners in scoring position, Scutaro’s offensive production increased dramatically:

RISP: 128 AB   38 H   2 HR   48 RBI   .297/.380/.375.

So, taking all of these factors into account, one truth remains.

Marco Scutaro was a better player than Derek Jeter in 2010.

Also, 26-year-old SS Jed Lowrie finally put it together last year for the Red Sox. Once touted as one of the organization’s better prospects, Lowrie has been hampered by wrist injuries and even mononucleosis over parts of three seasons in the big leagues.

But when Dustin Pedroia went down the for the Sox last year, and injuries started to put serious doubts on Boston’s playoff hopes, Lowrie got his shot. And he delivered. Just look at his August/September splits:

August:        20 G   56 AB   4 HR   8 RBI   .304/.400/.571

September:  24 G   83 AB   3 HR   10 RBI   .265/.344/.458.

While his September numbers were not as good, they weren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, especially considering this was really the first time Lowrie had played an extended period of time as a Major League starter. 

Lowrie did quite a bit of shuffling around defensively last year (as did every healthy body the Red Sox had) in order to account for all the injuries. He actually made more appearances at second base than he did at short, and he even appeared in six games at first base. However, Lowrie’s splits at shortstop, his natural position, remain astronomical:

As shortstop: 23 G   71 AB   6 HR   13 RBI   .324/.422/.648.

Albeit in limited time, that’s still an OPS of 1.070. Like I said, astronomical.

It’s no secret that GM Theo Epstein has clearly been a fan of Lowrie ever since he made his debut with the team in 2008, and he’ll likely be able to seize the majority share of the shortstop duties from Scutaro, providing he shows good signs in spring training 2011.

The Red Sox did fine in the shortstop department last year. In fact, it was one of the few stable areas of output they had. But Shaughnessy would have you believe different. He would have you believe that a homerish obsession of showing the Yankees up is more important than putting a solid product on the baseball field:

“Jeter is closing in on 3,000 hits. Imagine if he gets his 3,000th hit as a Red Sox . . . at Fenway . . . against Mariano Rivera?”

It’s a nice thought, Dan, but it’s one for the movies. Pragmatically, it’s not plausible.

Also, it’s no secret that the Red Sox could possibly lose the best offensive player they had last season, 3B Adrian Beltre, to free agency. If Jeter were to come to the Red Sox, that would likely be his position.

But, the Red Sox would likely have to well outbid the Yankees current offer of three years and $45 million in order to bring him in. Reports have surfaced that Jeter is looking for $20 million or more per year for 4-5 years. If they’re going to spend that much on a corner infielder, why not just bring Beltre back?

Rumors of a five-year, $64 million offer from the Oakland Athletics have been floating around for the last few days. Whether or not this offer is in fact legit, something around that is a good estimate of what it would cost to bring Beltre back a member of the Sox.

So, when the dust is cleared, I think the Red Sox would rather have the younger, better defensive player and better offensive player (Beltre) than Jeter, especially considering the fact that their contracts could end up similar in both years and dollars.

But since the Red Sox didn’t bring back Martinez, and could possibly not bring Beltre back—they’ve obviously got some extra dough lying around. This is what Shaughnessy would have the Sox do with it:

“I say offer him the world. Forget about Jayson Werth. Blow Jeter away with dollars and years. At worst this would just mean the Sox would jack up the final price the Yankees must pay. It could be sort of like Mark Teixeira-in-reverse.”

Shaughnessy would rather blow it all on one guy. He doesn’t think that guys like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth are worthy of a large contract. He makes no mention of shoring up the bullpen with guys like Scott Downs, or the possibility of an Adrian Gonzalez trade and extension. Nope. Instead, he’d rather the Red Sox spend it all on Jeter.

Apparently, Shaughnessy doesn’t see “the harm” in completely avoiding reason:

“What’s the harm in offering Jeter $20 million a year over three years? If you can pay J.D. Drew $14 million per year . . . if you can pay a Japanese team $50 million just for the right to speak with Daisuke Matsuzaka . . . if you can buy a futbol club for $476 million, why not spend $60 million to bust pinstripe chops for all the ages?…If Jeter actually signed with Boston, the damage to the Yankees’ psyche would be inestimable.”

What’s the harm? Last time I checked, giving aging players very large, long-term deals isn’t the best way to go about winning championships, or building an organization for continual, long-term success. With Shaughnessy, it’s not about reason, it’s not even really about baseball for him. Rather, he still thinks it necessary for the Red Sox to needle and prod the Yankees at every given opportunity.

But does he not forget? The Yankees-Red Sox relationship is no longer what is used to be. No longer are the Boston nine the whipping Boys of the Bronx Bombers. Last time I checked, the “curse was reversed” already in 2004 and the Red Sox lead the Yankees in championships for this decade, 2-1.

There might’ve been a day where all Red Sox fans had to look forward to was the chance to embarrass the Yankees. But no longer. Those days are over. Still a formidable opponent, the Yankees are no longer the dynasty they once were; they’re no longer the perpetual oppressor that tormented Boston fans ever since that fateful day in 1920, when the Sox sold the greatest power hitter to ever live for a mere $100,000. 

The fact remains that with their financial flexibility and currently strong roster, the Sox are in just as good a position as anyone to win the American League East next season. But, to Shaughnessy, that means nothing if they can’t show up the Yankees in the process.

What he fails to realize, however, is that winning is the greatest burn of all.

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Let’s get one thing clear, the Red Sox cannot find replacements for Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, and improve offensively. Martinez batted .400 against lefties, Beltre was the best player on the team. Good luck finding that level of production on the trade market.

As far as replacing Victor Martinez, there is one thing everyone should remember: The Red Sox have Jarrod Saltalamacchia right now. It would not take much to be an improvement.

With Beltre, the Red Sox have some flexibility. They can go after a third baseman or move Kevin Youkilis to the hot corner and sign someone to play first.

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The 2010 Free Agent class for hitters is similar to many Free Agent classes of the past.  It contains many aging sluggers nearing the end of their careers, players coming off outstanding years; or terrible ones, and then the three guys that every team wants to have suit up for them.  Everyone knows the headliners of this years class, the speedy Carl Crawford, the shaggy power threat Jayson Werth, and the talented slugger Adam Dunn.

Today I will be taking a look at where some of the top sluggers available will sign, and what kind of numbers they will put up for their new teams.

One of the best players, Victor Martinez, has already reached a deal with the Detroit Tigers on a four year $50 million deal.  Which as was about eight million dollars less than I expected when I started my draft for this article, however, I was correct in expecting the Tigers to be his new team.

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One of the few bright spots of the Red Sox’ 2010 season was Adrian Beltre’s triumphant return to stardom.

In 154 games with Boston, Beltre hit .321 with 28 homers, 102 RBI and a .919 OPS. He combined his newly rediscovered offensive prowess with his Gold Glove defense for a whopping 7.1 Wins Above Replacement. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the Red Sox might have finished below .500 without him.

Now a free agent, Beltre will leave a huge hole in the Red Sox’ depth chart if he doesn’t re-sign with Boston. If he doesn’t return to Fenway in 2011, word on the street is that the Red Sox will try to pry first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres.

With Victor Martinez heading to Detroit, it’s especially important for the Red Sox to upgrade their lineup. The question is: Which Adrian should they pursue?

The answer is pretty clear: Beltre. In this slideshow are 10 reasons why Boston should try to re-sign him instead of trading for A-Gone.

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It’s funny how an athlete seems to do his job to the best of his ability when there are question marks surrounding his future payment. Although, you can’t really blame them because we are all guilty of doing it.

If you were given four years of guaranteed money, would you find yourself working harder than you did the previous year to get that money, or just enough to not get fired?

I bet during that fourth year, right before your evaluation, your work would suddenly bumped up on your priority list.

The point being, we aren’t judging athletes for suddenly “breaking out” when money is involved, but simply informing them that we notice.

We notice in the way we draft them in fantasy sports or how we judge how much our favorite team should pay them, but for some reason there is always some franchise out there who seems to ignore the trend and signs an inconsistent player to a long-term deal based only on the previous season. 

Adrian Beltre will be that player this season. No one epitomizes the contract year player like him.

Organizations need to use a player’s history as a resume rather than solely looking at just the previous season before handing them over a huge contract.

If not, you end up with a Milton Bradley scenario in Chicago, basing an entire contract on one season instead of saying to yourself, “If I give a crazy, injury-prone athlete more money, I wonder what he’ll do?”

A Javier Vazquez scenario in New York this season is another example of looking at one year rather than a player’s career.

Or the Derek Lowe scenario, where you give a player money based on a playoff performance rather than a career. See Jeff Suppan as well. 

Or you end up giving a player a contract that is impossible to live up to like Carlos Beltran or Alex Rodriguez.

And, of course, there’s always the New York Yankee/Chicago Cub genius general management move, where you simply give a guy a whole lot of money for no reason, seen in Chien-Ming Wang and Kosuke Fukudome.

These are the dangers of free agency, which ironically continue to be tested by the same “let’s win via free agency” franchises, making it so much more enjoyable to laugh at them when they fail to win by overpaying everyone.

Although it is tempting to grab a guy who was an MVP candidate the previous year and say, “Maybe he’s finally gotten his act together,” an organization should really look at the career as a whole rather than just one speck of it. Players don’t suddenly break out when they are 30 unless a paycheck is on the horizon.

But enough lecturing and back to Adrian Beltre.

All you have to do is look at the history.

1999 – .275 BA, .352 OBP, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 84 R
2000 – .290 BA, .360 OBP, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 71 R
2001 – .265 BA, .310 OBP, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 59 R
2002 – .257 BA, .303 OBP, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 70 R
2003 – .240 BA, .290 OBP, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 50 R

And here comes the contract year.

2004 – .334 BA, .388 OBP, 48 HR, 121 RBI, 104 R.

Okay, we can give Beltre the benefit of the doubt since he had just turned 25 years old and perhaps finally grasped the game. Seattle gave him a five-year, $64 million contract.

And we’re back.

2005 – .255 BA, .303 OBP, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 69 R
2006 – .268 BA, .328 OBP, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 88 R
2007 – .276 BA, .319 OBP, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 87 R
2008 – .266 BA, .327 OBP, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 74 R
2009 – .265 BA, .304 OBP, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 54 R (111 games)

With a stroke of genius, Boston signs Beltre to a one-year deal for $9 million, knowing a contract year is on the horizon.

And here comes the contract year.

2010 – .321 BA, .365 OBP, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 84 R.

So, here we are again.

Beltre is 31 and coming off an incredible season. He is a free agent.

The smart thing to do would be for teams to continue swapping Beltre around with one-year contracts, using and abusing his contract year explosions in search for a long-term contract.

But we all know, one of those “let’s win via free agency” genius teams out there will give him a long-term contract this season that he won’t live up to.

Here’s hoping it isn’t one of your teams.

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Adrian Beltre signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox last year in order to restore credibility to his name after five mediocre seasons in Seattle. Beltre wound up being Boston’s best hitter in 2010, hitting .321 with 28 home runs and 102 RBI in what was an injury-riddled season for the Red Sox.

Beltre enters this year’s free agent market as one of the top three hitters along with Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman recently reported that there were up to 12 teams interested in the services of Beltre.

The third basemen experienced similar courting back in 2004, where he came off an MVP-caliber season with the Dodgers to sign a five-year, $64 million dollar contract with the Mariners. 

Will Beltre be able to cash in like he did in 2004? Here are the top five likely free agent destinations for the third baseman. 

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It’s almost over.

It’s been more than three weeks since Bleacher Report’s Featured Columnists began unveiling the results of our end-of-season mock awards vote. We’ve worked our way up from lowly Silver Sluggers to mighty Cy Youngs and everything in between.

Today, we release the results of the final award in the American League, but we saved the best for last: the Most Valuable Players.

This time, the top ten vote-getters are featured here, with commentary from the writers who chose them. The full list of results is at the end.

So read on, see how we did, and be sure to tell us what we got wrong!

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It’s finally time for free agency in Major League baseball. Fans are excited to see what major players their teams may land this year. And players are excited to see how large their contracts will be.

I have attempted to summon my inner Nostradamus and make predictions about where the Top 50 free agents will be playing next season.

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I saw a post on mlbtraderumors.com quoting uber-agent Scott Boras as stating he has never seen more interest in a player than he is currently receiving for client Adrian Beltre. 

Most likely, that is just puffery by Boras, who well understands how important it is to throw as much bull up against the wall as possible, since at least some of it will stick in the minds of MLB’s general managers.

One thing is for certain, though.  Whoever signs Beltre will pay top dollar.  That is the first, second and last thing 90 percent of the players who choose Boras as their agent are looking for.

Whoever ponies up for Beltre will likely regret it.  Don’t get me wrong—on balance Beltre is a fine third baseman, but whoever signs him will almost certainly pay way more than what he’ll actually be worth for the life of the contract.

Beltre is essentially a great defensive third baseman who is no better than mediocre or a little above average as an offensive player, except that he has had two fantastic seasons with the bat completely out of line with his career norms.

Beltre established himself as a major league regular at age 20 in 1999, and for the first two years he absolutely looked like he would be a future superstar, posting OPS numbers of .780 at age 20 and .835 at age 21.

Then he hit a wall, posting OPS numbers over the next three seasons of .720, .729 and .714.  Those are decent numbers for a third baseman with Beltre’s glove, but hardly what you look for in a superstar or even a player who can carry a team.

At age 25, Beltre finally broke out and looked like he was going to be the superstar everyone had predicted and been waiting on since the late ’90′s. 

He hit .334 with 48 HRs and a 1.017 OPS, while playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, a graveyard for hitters.

The Mariners rewarded Beltre with a five-year contract for $64 million after his monster 2004 season.  In the greater scheme of MLB, that really isn’t that much money, and Beltre played reasonably well for the money the first four season as a Mariner, posting OPS numbers of .716, .792, .802 and .784.

Again, you can build a winning team with a third baseman with those offensive numbers who fields like Beltre. 

However, it’s worth noting that the M’s failed to make the post season in any of Beltre’s five seasons in Seattle and finished under .500 three of those five seasons.  Thus, it’s difficult to argue the Mariners got what they were paying for when the signed Beltre.

In 2009, Beltre’s OPS fell to an ugly .683, and given the bad state of the economy, the Red Sox were able to sign Beltre for a one-year deal at $9 million. 

The Red Sox figured that Beltre, who was still only 31 in 2010, would have an offensive bounce moving from Safeco Field to Fenway. The Red Sox were right, and Beltre had a terrific season, hitting .328 with 79 extra base hits and posting a .919 OPS.

Odds are Beltre will never post an OPS over .900 again.  Beltre was 31 in 2010, which, at least before the Age of Steroids, was usually the last year of a player’s prime seasons. 

Beltre probably won’t be playing his home games in a hitters’ park as good as Fenway next year, and with eight seasons in his career below an .800 OPS and only two above an .850 OPS, you have to figure that Beltre will be lucky to have even one season significantly over .800 on the multi-year deal he’s likely to sign.

The only way I can see Beltre being worth the money he’s going to get on this contract is if the team that signs him is a third baseman away from post-season success in the next two or three seasons. Otherwise, they’ll likely regret the contract, the same way the Mariners did.

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