Tag: Adrian Beltre

MLB Rumors: Predicting Where the Top Free Agents Will Land

The MLB hot stove has officially begun to warm up.

Perhaps the most exciting time in the entire year for diehard fans and the most stressful for those working in front offices, the free-agent frenzy has great influence on the next season and beyond.

With SP Cliff Lee undoubtedly the biggest prize on the market, teams will be looking to make franchise-shaping moves in the coming weeks. While some teams may have more financial resources than others, sometimes avoiding dishing out the lucrative multi-year deal can be a better investment than reeling in a big-name bust like the Mets did with Jason Bay last season.

 

1. Cliff Lee, SP

As aforementioned, Lee will be top dog of the group. Expecting to command a contract that is very similar to the one CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees (seven years, $161 million), Lee’s demands could far exceed just about every team’s payroll except for one.

You guessed it, the Yankees.

While Lee’s wife has stated that she loves the time they spent in Texas, the re-invented lefty is 32 years old, and this will be his only chance to cash in on the big bucks. If the Yankees come knocking with an offer that trumps every other team’s, it’s hard to imagine him saying no.

Prediction: New York Yankees

 

2. Carl Crawford, OF

The closest thing to a five-tool player in the entire bunch, Crawford’s unique skill set should prove to be worth over $100 million to his new club. An original member of the Tampa Bay club, the only team he has ever known, will let him walk out the door.

While some have speculated that the Red Sox could possibly make a run, perhaps Crawford’s tenure in the AL East has led him to be somewhat calloused toward the rest of the clubs. Additionally, the Sox do not hand out long-term deals too readily, and have to worry about far too many other spots (catcher, namely) to think about throwing the big bucks at the other CC.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

 

3. Jayson Werth, OF

Agent Scott Boras is doing his best to sell Werth as this year’s version of Matt Holliday, but he’s going to have a tough time on that one. The Phillies took a chance on Werth prior to the 2008 season, and the bearded beast has provided a phenomenal return on investment.

There is somewhat of a hesitancy to shell out a large contract to Werth, who really didn’t do much in his career prior to his tenure in Philadelphia, but someone is certain to overpay. While Werth is certainly a talented player, his home ballpark (Citizens Bank) is considered a bandbox, and his power numbers may fall off with his new team…unless he lands back in the division where his career began.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

 

4. Adrian Beltre, 3B

Notorious for performing best in the walk years of his contract, Beltre’s one-year “pillow” contract with the Red Sox couldn’t have worked out better for both sides. Unfortunately for the Sox, the third baseman most likely priced himself off of the payroll with his very good 2010 season.

An excellent defender, Beltre’s offensive statistics were his best since his 2004 farewell season with the Dodgers. Now 31 years old, the veteran will be looking for a very hefty four or five-year contract that will pay him between $15-20 million per season, and only teams with money to spend can dole out that kind of dough.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

 

5. Derek Jeter, SS

The stickiest contract of the entire offseason, Jeter will certainly take his sweet time in negotiating with the Yankees. With no other team expected to even call the career Bronx Bomber, both sides are going to have to get creative to satisfy one another.

While his numbers don’t justify much more than $7-$8 million per season, Jeter’s worth to the team extends far beyond what he does on the baseball field. The 27-time world champions will have to tie in personal benefits galore, lots of incentives and other crafty methods to ensure that the deal gets done, but in the end it’s doubtful to think that these two would divorce from one another.

Prediction: New York Yankees

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2011 Red Sox Preview: Everything You Need to Know About Boston’s Long Hot Stove

Distressing as it may be for the Red Sox Nation, the 2010 campaign died months before the season itself concluded. With heavy hearts, skeptical brows and gnawed fingertips, the Nation did its best to stomach a Sox-less October and look toward the 2011 season with growing optimism.

Shaking off the nasty sense of déjà vu 2010 has cast on Beantown will require some serious action at both the personal and franchise levels. Who would have thought the Red Sox could experience more horrific, season-derailing injuries than in 2006?

At least—most sports commentators contend—this should be a busy winter for general manager Theo Epstein as he looks to retool his Red Sox for a more successful “next year.” But will it indeed be a busy off-season brimming with possible mega deals and spotted with excellent free-agent signings?

This writer isn’t so sure.

While the major media outlets will surely keep the Faithful on their hopeful toes with heart-thumping “trade rumors,” a more pragmatic analysis of the Red Sox roster indicates that less flamboyant signings will figure prominently in Boston’s unfortunately long winter.

For what it’s worth, here then are one writer’s views and predictions for the upcoming Red Sox off-season.

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MLB Rumors: Rating All 30 Teams’ Chances To Sign Free-Agent 3B Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre will be the third-most sought-after free agent position player this offseason, but may provide the best value to whoever signs himt.

Beltre declined his player option for 2011, after a 2010 season in which he made $10 million while delivering 7.1 WAR. On top of his defense, which is always stellar at third base, Beltre has rediscovered the batting stroke that eluded him during his entire five-year tenure in Seattle.

In 2004, after a season in which he hit 48 home runs and was worth 10.1 WAR, Beltre inked a five-year deal worth $64 million to play for the Mariners. His time there was miserable, however, and Beltre fled to Boston last winter.

The decision was a good one: Beltre should now receive a deal in excess of four years and $45 million. Still, given his undervalued and unmatched defense at the hot corner, the team who signs him will be getting a bargain.

Which team will that be? It’s impossible to say right now, but here are all 30 teams, ranked in order from least to most likely to sign Beltre.

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MLB Rumors: 10 Top Free Agents and Where They Could Be Heading

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants for winning the World Series, but that was last season. The offseason has begun and the trade rumors and free agency questions are flying all over the place.

This year, there will be plenty of money to throw around. With so many disappointing seasons from big-market teams such as the Boston Red Sox, New  York Mets and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, teams will be throwing large sums of cash at both worthy, talented players and overrated bums.

Every team dreams of the free-agent acquisition that will put them over the top. For 22 teams every year that don’t make the playoffs, those players just don’t work out. Whether $100 million gets you your ace in Johan Santana or a guy who is left off the playoff roster in Barry Zito, is just one of the factors that makes baseball so interesting.

Here are the top 10 free agents and their possible destinations:

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MLB Free-Agent Hitters: A Top 14 List From Jim Thome To Carl Crawford

I printed out a list of the 2010 MLB free agents (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts) and got to work highlighting the available upper tier players that caught my eye.

As usual, there is an abundance of available pitching help, and specifically, relief depth on the market and because I haven’t seen them all (and to be honest I don’t google “Chad Gaudin highlights” very often) I decided to stick with everyday players for my list.

The list is based solely on who I think the best available free agents are. It does not factor in status (Type A/Type B) that could affect who signs where and whether or not a team loses a draft pick for signing a particular player. In addition, my list obviously does not account for how much each player will earn at their next stop. For example, I’d rather have Orlando Hudson for one year at $4 million than Derek Jeter at five years and $80 million.

I may work on starting pitcher rankings later (*SPOILER ALERT* I’d have Cliff Lee No. 1) but for now, without further ado, here’s my list of the top 13 free agent hitters (player age in in parantheses).

14. Jim Thome (40): The likable Paul Bunyan character is 40 years old but still managed to smash 25 home runs this year in just 276 at-bats! Thome no longer provides any value in the field, but for a measly $1.5 million the Twins got a lot of pop out of the slugger. Don’t expect anything but another one year contract for Thome and don’t be surprised when he outperforms it.

13. Manny Ramirez (39): Is Manny Ramirez the Randy Moss of Major League Baseball? Or is Randy Moss the Manny Ramirez of the NFL? Anyway, Manny is Manny is Manny and this means that he is still feared among Major League pitchers. After the White Sox claimed him off of waivers, however, Manuel slugged just a single home run and a single double in 88 at-bats.

As with Thome, I’d be shocked to see anyone offer him more than just a one-year contract. Just two years ago Manny was looking to cash in on a huge payday. The Dodgers gave him a two-year, $45 million contract and should be thankful they didn’t give into Scott Boras’ demands of a four-year contract for the quickly eroding star.

12. Johnny Damon (37): Despite his terrible arm, Damon has, by the numbers, managed to maintain himself as a league average outfielder due to his speed and instincts. He also continues to find his way on base and can still swipe a bag when needed. Damon’s power dropped quickly (from 24 home runs to 8) after his move to Detroit, but the veteran seems to have gas left in the tank for his next stop.

11. Magglio Ordonez (37): Magglio was putting up some big time numbers last year until a broken ankle sidelined him for the season. Unlike the previous two on this list, Ordonez can at least play a serviceable outfield, though of course it remains to be seen if the injury will affect him.

Another guy who, like Manny, will have to get used to making less money fast, Ordonez nonetheless could be an excellent option for a team in need of a power right-handed bat. I still see him playing best in the American League where he can be used as both a DH and an outfielder.

10. Orlando Hudson (32): The O-Dog just keeps chugging along and will most likely play for his third team in three years in 2011. Hudson continues to play solid, if unspectacular defense and has a good bat for a second baseman. Don’t expect much pop, but do expect another consistent year from a player I believe went from being over-rated to under-rated.

9. Vladimir Guerrero (36): Yes, Vladdy looked terrible in the World Series. It was sad to see him in right field in Game 1 kicking the ball around. Vlad is, of course, no longer an outfielder and should not be treated as such under any circumstances.

The DH Vlad did contribute almost 200 runs to one of the best offenses in baseball and despite his refusal to take many walks, he still managed to hit .300 due to his low strikeout rate. It was a renaissance year for Vlad, one few could have predicted, and despite his poor finish, you can bet an AL team will give him another shot to replicate his regular season in 2011.

8. Carlos Pena (33): It looked as though Pena had it all figured it out until he laid a stink-bomb of a season in 2010 for the Rays. The first baseman failed to crack the Mendoza line with an alarming .196 batting average and has saw his OPS drop 305 points since its height of 1.037 in 2007. All that said, Pena still flashed some power and could benefit from another change of scenery.

7. Paul Konerko (35): Paul Henry Konerko has a special place in my heart as without fail, I find him available in the 15th round of my fantasy baseball draft and without fail, he delivers.

Konerko added 11 home runs to last year’s total and continued to get on base at a high clip. Age and injury concerns regarding his back should keep Konerko in the AL, but he’s an example of another veteran who is still getting it done at the plate well into his 30s.

6. Derek Jeter (37): A slightly better fielder than the No. 5 player on the list (I kid, I kid), Jeter is one of the most thoroughly discussed free agents of the year. Much has been made of his sub-standard year at the plate, but I would not be shocked to see The Captain come back with a vengeance in 2011.

Is he worth $20 million a year over four or five years? Absolutely not, and unless he has a complete lack of self-awareness he knows this.

Yes, he has done great things for the Yankees, but with both his offense and defense in decline, and questions about his future at the shortstop position, he must come to terms with earning tens and not twenties of millions of dollars a year. He ain’t leaving the Yankees, but it will be fascinating to watch the negotiations unfold.

5. Adam Dunn (31): Despite being one of the worst defenders in baseball, Adam Dunn still maintains plenty of value. According to FanGraph’s UZR rating, Dunn picked up his defense at first base this year and while he walked 39 less times than he did in 2009 he continued to display consistent power with 38 dingers to match his output from last year.

The Nationals made a mistake by not trading him for prospects before the deadline this year and it will be interesting to see just how much Dunn commands on the open market. Will National League teams have much interest in him?

4. Victor Martinez (32): ESPN’s Keith Law made this observation on Twitter last night: “If your team needs a catcher who absolutely will not get on base, this is the free agent class of your dreams.” Law was dead on, and V-Mart is the only catcher who is noticeably different compared to his free agent peers (this begs the question: can’t we just roll all the other free agent catcher’s into a hybrid named Jarosedit Pieritanajas?).

Of course, Martinez has his flaws defensively, throwing out a paltry 21 percent of basestealers in 2010. But with his bat, the ability to play catcher, first base and DH, there should be a strong market for the switch-hitter.

3. Adrian Beltre (32): The Red Sox $9 million investment in a year of Beltre turned into a steal when the third baseman OPS’d .919 for the club in 2010. Beltre doesn’t like to walk to first base and probably won’t replicate his .331 batting average on balls in play (his career BAbip is .294) but he remains a premium defender at third base.

The red flag? Beltre has produced his best numbers in contract years when he’s had something to prove. That said, the free swinger showed he can produce at a high level and played in all but eight games. He will get his money.

2. Jayson Werth (32): You probably know Werth’s story by now. High draft pick. Took a while to get to the Show. Had injury issues that were misdiagnosed. Went to the Mayo Clinic and got his wrist right. Signed with the Phillies and his career belatedly took off.

The right-fielder (who can also capably man center) is finally in position to cash in on his first big payday. How much will teams pay for a streaky hitter who has played just three full seasons? He and Beltre are the only (relatively) young right-handed impact bat on the market and my guess is that someone will pay plenty.

1. Carl Crawford (29): The crown jewel of this class, Crawford, like Werth, is a well-rounded outfielder who does a little bit of everything. A workout fiend, Crawford uses his speed to swipe an average of 54 bases per 162 games and play a terrific left field. And he’s not just your run-of-the-mill slap-happy basestealer, either.

The outfielder hit 19 home runs, 30 doubles and 13 triples to prove he’s got some pop in his bat. Look for Crawford to earn the highest contract of any hitter on the market as several teams battle for his services. He deserves it.

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MLB Rumors: Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre Should Be Blue Jays’ No. 1 Targets

In what many experts peg as a make or break offseason for Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays look well on their way to their first playoff appearance in the last 17 years.

It’s been a long road since then—having to bear witness to many managerial changes and even a few general managers coming and going, mainly Gord Ash and J.P. Ricciardi.

But out of all the doom and gloom comes some light at the end of the tunnel.

The biggest but more unheralded thing to happen this offseason for the Blue Jays is that the U.S. $10 million contract owed to B.J. Ryan comes off the books. Not only can this money be used on multiple players, but it can also be used to hopefully re-sign home run champ Jose Bautista to a new long-term contract.

With that said, the Blue Jays come into the 2010-11 offseason with many question marks as well.

With a good handful of expiring deals and contract extensions hitting the Jays, there are questions as to whether Rogers will shell out the cash in order for this team to compete in a very expensive AL East.

The likes of Lyle Overbay ($7.9 million expiring), Edwin Encarnacion ($5.175 million expiring), Scott Downs ($4.0 million expiring), Jason Frasor ($2.6 million expiring), Kevin Gregg ($2.0 million expiring—although Jays hold an expensive option on him) and John Buck ($2.0 million expiring) have expiring contracts. I believe Brian Tallet will also be expiring at $2.0 million.

All in all, that gives the Jays about $35 million in expiring contracts (counting Ryan in the mix).

Much of that money will go towards pay raises expected for the likes of Ricky Romero, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Shaun Marcum.

The Jays finished last season with an 85-77 record, along with having one of the lowest payrolls in the game.

With new manager John Farrell at the helm, the Jays look to be gaining more respectability from around the majors. There’s actually some optimism now surrounding this Jays team.

Rogers should be investing all the money they can to put this team over the top. To do so, I think the Jays should invest in two All-Star players: Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre.

I’ll start with Beltre first. Beltre is easily one of the best all-around third basemen in the majors. His combination of bat skills and glove skills leaves him in a class alone at the top of the third baseman free agent crop this offseason.

Having played on the same team as Farrell coached, Beltre would have a great idea of what his philosophies are and how well he can run a team. Beltre finished last season with a .321 avg along with 28 HR, 102 RBI and, most notably according to Farrell, a .365 OBP along with 49 doubles thanks to Fenway’s Green Monster.

I would love to peg Beltre in the No. 5 slot in the Jays lineup.

As for Crawford, he’s the epitome of what the Jays have been missing since the days of a healthy Shannon Stewart.

Crawford’s combination of defence, batting and his best attribute, his blazing speed on the basepaths, leaves him unmatched in the left field free agent crop.

Crawford would bring a newfound optimism at the top of the Jays order, getting on base and getting around the bases easier than anyone the Jays have ever had since Rickey Henderson.

Carl finished the season last year with a .307 avg along with 19 HRs and 90 RBI to go along with 47 stolen bases and 13 triples.

I would love to peg Crawford in the No. 1 slot in the Jays lineup:

Crawford/Yunel Escobar/Bautista/Wells/Beltre/Lind/Hill/Travis Snider/Jose Molina.

Yes, this may be a bit too much to ask, but you have to aim high to get results. I’m not expecting both of them to sign, or either of them quite frankly, but the reality of the situation is the Jays need to target these players if they hope to do anything this year.

This could be the year to make the playoffs. The Rays are trying to minimize payroll, the Yankees are aging fast and appear to only have CC Sabathia as their only reliable starter going into the season next year, and the Red Sox are not getting any younger either, although they stand the best chance next year of having success.

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Boston Red Sox: What They Should Do at the Corners if Adrain Beltre Leaves

It is expected this offseason that Red Sox third baseman Adrian Beltre will turn down his $10 million player option and opt for free agency.

If he does this, the Red Sox will be without a third baseman.

The team could attempt to re-sign him through free agency, but will have to compete with other teams to do so.

And if Beltre decides to decline a one-year, $10 million option, he might be looking at more money than Boston is willing to deal out.

There is no doubt that last season, Beltre was consistently one of the best players on the Red Sox roster, one that was plagued with injury.

But if the price on Beltre goes too high the Red Sox do have other options.

The one that makes a lot of sense to me would be to sign Adam Dunn and move Kevin Youkilis over to third.

Sure, you lose a little bit on the defensive end of the spectrum, but Dunn brings Manny-type power to the plate that could help protect DH David Ortiz (another player the Sox need to re-sign).

Of course, the corners are just one area the Sox need to address this offseason. There were several games in which the bullpen let the team down, and those games they let slip away could have amounted to a playoff berth.

Expect this hot stove season to be a busy one for Boston. Whether the Red Sox are addressing needs or simply trying to block the Yankees, we should see the most action since 2003-2004.

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MLB Awards 2010: B/R Columnists’ Picks for AL Silver Sluggers

Every year, managers, coaches and writers from around Major League Baseball award honors and trophies to the players. And every year, they screw up.

This week, Bleacher Report’s Featured Columnists kicked off our preemptive response to the BBWAA’s ineptitude: a 16-part series in which 33 writers weighed in on who should win the game’s top honors, starting with the AL Gold Gloves on Monday and the NL Gold Gloves on Tuesday.

Today, we turn our attention to the AL Silver Sluggers—the best hitters at each position in the Junior Circuit.

So read on, see how we did and be sure to let us know what we got wrong.

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MLB Awards 2010: B/R Featured Columnists Pick the AL Gold Gloves

Every year, members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America fulfill their duties by voting for the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards. And every year, they find new ways to screw up.

Remember when Justin Morneau was named AL MVP in 2006? Or when Bartolo Colon took home the AL Cy Young in 2005? Just last year, a majority of voters chose Adam Wainwright over one or both of Chris Carpenter and Tim Lincecum for the NL Cy Young, therefore implicitly declaring that wins are somehow the most important pitching statistic.

When managers and coaches vote, things get even worse. What possible justification could there be for Torii Hunter being named a Silver Slugger and Derek Jeter taking home a Gold Glove after last season? Then there’s the Rolaids Relief Man Award, which is given out based solely on wins, losses and saves.

Everyone has an opinion, and everyone thinks he could do a better job. But talk is cheap, and saying you could do better is very different from actually doing better.

So Bleacher Report’s Featured Columnists decided to put our money where our collective mouth is. During the last week of the regular season, 33 FCs submitted their picks for Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, Comeback Players of the Year, Relief Men of the Year, Rookies of the Year, Managers of the Year, Cy Youngs and Most Valuable Players in at least one of the two leagues.

This slideshow, showcasing the winners of our AL Gold Glove vote, will be the first of a four-week, 16-part series featuring 110 players and managers. So read on, see how we did, and be sure to let us know what we got wrong.

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New York Yankees: Why the MLB Hot Stove Just Got a Whole Lot Hotter in the Bronx

What do the years 2001, 2003 and 2010 all have in common? They all involve deep playoff runs and subsequent disappointing playoff exits for the New York Yankees.

Following the 2001 and 2003 seasons, the Yankees acquired a dynamic hitter and veteran pitcher in each offseason, Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina after ’01 and Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Brown following ’03, and now it is very possible 2010 will also share that distinct similarity.

Don’t get me wrong, every postseason that doesn’t end with a World Series title is a disappointment to the Yankees and Yankees fans, but the 2001 World Series was a huge letdown and the 2003 loss was the official end to that Yankee dynasty.

2010 wasn’t a World Series loss, but an ALCS exit where the Yankees were truly over-matched and could not perform in the clutch was still hard to watch.

So who might the Yankees be targeting this offseason? Well, the popular pick is Cliff Lee and I think (hope) that he will be in pinstripes next season, after what he has done to the Yankees in the past, just signing him and keeping him away from other teams would be a bonus.

By the time it is all said and done he very well could be the highest paid pitcher in baseball history, because a bidding war is certainly going to take place between Texas and New York, along with whoever else is interested in him.

As for the bat, that remains to be seen, but some two of the most talked about hitters out there on the market are Adrian Beltre and Adam Dunn.

Beltre is coming off of a fantastic year in Boston hitting .321 with 28 home runs and 102 RBI, along with 49 doubles to lead the league. He also has a two Gold Gloves at third base.

Dunn is a much more one-dimensional player being a typical middle-of-the-order power bat, having not hit fewer than 38 home runs since 2003. His defense is nothing to brag about, but he can play first base and the corner outfield spots.

Both players would make the Yankees lineup even more stacked than it already is, but there would be one problem with signing either one of these All-Star caliber players. The DH spot would be jammed.

Beltre could play third base and A-Rod could move to the DH, but with an aging catcher, I have a feeling Jorge Posada is going to be the everyday DH next year, which brings me to my next point.

The Yankees don’t really need to sign either of these expensive free agents, because they have the young phenom catcher Jesus Montero waiting for his opportunity and next year the starting catching job could be his.

This is a player the Yankees have been high since they signed him as a 17-year-old. Now at age 20, he has shown at every level of the minors that he has a major league ready bat, having hit 21 home runs and knocked in 75 RBI this year at triple-A Scranton, while hitting .289. His defense was a concern but it is reportedly improved this year.

I have no doubt that by the end of next year, that Montero is the Yankees starting catcher and is an impact bat in the lineup, maybe not to the degree of Dunn or Beltre yet, but he certainly looks like he has the potential to hit 30 home runs in a season. And obviously, he is a much cheaper option than most free agents out there.

So maybe the Yankees just sign Cliff Lee and a few lesser free agents, possibly Johnny Damon, and go with Montero as their new starting catcher. Either way, if history repeats itself, the Yankees are going to have some new faces around in 2011.

 

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