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Cliff Lee is, as expected, the most coveted free agent as the MLB Winter Meetings open this week in Florida. Despite the Boston Red Sox’ acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez and the mega-deal between Jayson Werth and the Nationals, Lee remains at the forefront of the rumor mill as proceedings begin.

Lee and agent Derek Braunecker have begun visiting with teams and will undertake more serious meetings as the week progresses, according to Braunecker. The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers remain the favorites to sign Lee, but Lee and Braunecker insist there are other teams in play. Read on for the inside scoop on Lee’s free-agent posturing and the clamor of his would-be suitors.

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As a Red Sox fan, I’m as happy as anyone that the Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez. However, Boston’s work is far from done in this offseason: if they are to succeed in 2011 and beyond, the Red Sox need Carl Crawford and several relievers.

While the prospects dealt to San Diego in the Gonzalez blockbuster are tremendous talents, they’ll probably hit the bigs too far in the future to help a Red Sox team poised for success now. Casey Kelly would find himself logjammed behind a locked-up rotation, Anthony Rizzo is a first baseman, and Reymond Fuentes is years away from achieving anything close to the success of his cousin Carlos Beltran.

San Diego snatched a strong haul, but it’s a much stronger haul for a small-market team than for a team capable of filling any need through free agency and less reliant on a farm system’s continual production. While the Red Sox need quality homegrown players like Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester and Pedroia to produce at a high level for a relatively low cost, they don’t need to fill an entire 25-man roster with low-cost pre-arbitration youngsters. The Sox can afford the Adrian Gonzalezes of the world.

So, yes, I’m a big fan of this deal, which also means that Boston avoids committing four or more years to a productive but inconsistent and aging corner infielder like Adrian Beltre. This move gives Boston tremendous flexibility moving forward.

That said, Boston cannot rest on its laurels and settle for only minor improvements between now and spring training. Boston needs both Carl Crawford and multiple relievers.

Although Gonzalez may hit .320 and provide more than 40 homeruns and 100 RBI per season, he less than replaces the combined 2010 production of Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. Those two sluggers launched 48 bombs, drove in 181 and averaged .310 for the season.

The Sox need another bat, and it had better be in an outfield that’s only one year removed from losing JD Drew and Mike Cameron. Crawford’s dominant speed and defense make him by far the best available option for years to come.

Just take a look at the potential free agent outfielders next Winter, and you’ll quickly recognize what an opportunity teams have right now to sign the likes of Crawford. The Sox shouldn’t be afraid to sign two franchise players to six or eight year deals at the same time. Crawford and Gonzalez can carry this club for a long time.

Then there’s the bullpen. Young flamethrower Daniel Bard recently commented to the Boston Herald that the pen needs a veteran presence. They need some help out there.

With Hideki Okajima non-tendered, Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez dealt away last season, and Jonathan Papelbon diminishing each time he takes the mound, the Sox need to bolster the pen for 2011. Recently, they’ve been connected to Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Koji Uehara, and Ron Mahay.

The smart money’s on Fuentes and Guerrier. Either way, the Sox cannot rely on recent acquisitions Andrew Miller and Taylor Buchholz. Soon the free agent relievers will be gobbled up like holiday leftovers.

The Sox need to get in on this arms race.

For breaking Red Sox news updates, follow Peter on Twitter at BoSoxUpdate.

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Despite rumblings that a trade would not go through due to the belief that a long-term contract would not get done, Adrian Gonzalez was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for coveted pitching prospect Casey Kelly, first base prospect Anthony Rizzo, outfielder Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named later.

Gonzalez is currently under contract for this season at $6 million, with a long-term contract extension expected to come in the next few days. Gonzalez’s agent is said to be seeking a Mark Teixeira-type contract for the slugging first baseman who was once a first-overall pick by the Florida Marlins.

The AL East has been the most hotly contested divisions over the past couple seasons.

With the way the Yankees spend, New York is expected to constantly compete at the top of the division. The Tampa Bay Rays have built from the the ground up with prospects Evan Longoria and terrific starting pitching, such as David Price.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, that meant finishing six games behind the Wild Card-winning Yankees in 2010.

Boston had to make a big splash this offseason. The Yankees have already been active this winter and have been actively pursuing Cliff Lee. The Rays have been conscious of payroll considerations, but they still have four superb starting pitchers.

But this was the wrong move for the Red Sox to improve.

Adrian Gonzalez is one of the top sluggers in baseball. Gonzalez has hit 161 home runs over the last five seasons. He has had 99 or more RBIs every year for the last four years. Gonzalez also is one of the more patient sluggers in the major leagues and has averaged a .400 on-base percentage over the last two years while walking more than he struck out in 2009.

In essence, there are not many hitters better than Gonzalez out there.

The problem with the move was two-fold. The first is easy to see: The problem with the Red Sox last season was not a power outage. Boston was second in slugging percentage and home runs last season, with .451 and 211, respectively. The Red Sox also found themselves in the top five in the majors in average, on-base percentage, doubles, runs and RBIs.

Essentially, this Red Sox club is an offensive machine already. Gonzalez is a terrific player, and he improves Boston’s lineup immensely, but was he really what they needed?

The Red Sox had to give up some big talent for Gonzalez, particularly Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes. Boston has yet to sign Gonzalez to a long-term deal, which is obviously expected, considering the talent they gave up to get him.

Boston would have been better off going after one of the big-name free agents in either Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee. The Red Sox were in the bottom five in the league in stolen bases, a statistic that would not be repeated if they signed Crawford.

Cliff Lee may have been a bit more expensive than signing Gonzalez, but not by enormous amounts. Boston’s pitching was their Achilles heel last season. The Red Sox were 22nd in ERA and gave up the third most walks of any pitching staff. Signing Cliff Lee could have inserted a third ace into the rotation along with John Lackey and Clay Buchholz.

It was pitching and speed that Boston lacked. With Adrian Gonzalez, they got better, just not in areas of need.

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With Adrian Gonzalez officially being dealt to Boston, there has been a major shakeup in our first base rankings.  Let’s take a look at how things currently stand for the 2011 season:

1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
3. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
4. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
5. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox
6. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
7. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
9. Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels
10. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
11. Adam Dunn – Chicago White Sox
12. Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
13. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers
14. Paul Konerko – Free Agent
15. Buster Posey – San Francisco

Thoughts:

• Over the past four seasons Adrian Gonzalez has hit 137 home runs, with only 47 coming at home. Clearly, the move from Petco Park to Fenway Park is going to do wonders for his potential value. With Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira all coming off down seasons, it is easy to immediately push Gonzalez into the top five. It’ll be really interesting to see how it all plays out, but let the debate begin.
• As I discussed earlier, Adam Dunn’s move to the White Sox does little to change his fantasy value. He’s one of the elite power hitters in the game and is worth owning in all formats.
• Victor Martinez may struggle with his power now that he’s playing in Detroit, but he will also likely see time at DH, giving him more AB and more of an opportunity for counting stats. We all know that his true value lies in his catcher eligibility and that no one is going to draft him as a 1B, but that doesn’t mean he lacks value here (the same thing can be said for Buster Posey).
• The next players on the list are Ike Davis and Aubrey Huff, both of whom just missed.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Adrian Gonzalez is officially a member of the Boston Red Sox. He was introduced during a brief, 30 minute press conference at Fenway Park this afternoon.

Now that the dust has cleared, Red Sox fans want to know how he’ll do in Boston.

Gonzalez is a career .284/.368/.507 hitter with 168 HR and 525 RBI. His career home/away splits, however, feature quite a drastic difference:

Home: 1504 AB, 396 H, 61 HR, 214 RBI, .263/.360/.440

Away:  1663 AB, 504 H, 107 HR, 311 RBI, .303/.376/.568

What accounts for this difference? Not skill level, but rather the home park he had to play in.

The San Diego Padres make their home at PETCO Park, which is considered one of the worst hitters parks in all of baseball. Its dimensions are as follows: 334 ft. down the left field line, 367 ft. to left, 402 ft. in the left field alley, 396 ft. to center, 402 ft. to the right field alley, 382 ft. to right, 322 ft. down the left field line.

Using pitching park factor (runs above 1.000 favor the hitter; below, the pitcher), PETCO was worth just 0.882 runs, the fifth-lowest total in baseball.

Three of the five NL West parks were ranked 22nd or worst in baseball: PETCO, AT&T Park (Giants), which has a PPF of 0.942, and Dodger Stadium, which has a PPF of 0.939.

Only two parks in the NL West were above one run, therefore favoring the hitter: Coors Field (Rockies) was first on the list with a PPF of 1.364, and Chase Field was ninth with a PPF of 1.049.

This marks a striking contrast from the American League East. Fenway Park itself has a PPF of 1.083, the seventh-highest average in baseball. Yankee Stadium was second in PFF at 1.177, Camden Yards (Orioles) was fifth with a 1.122 and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) was eighth with a 1.058.

Gonzalez has a significant chance to improve on his numbers simply because he’ll be playing a majority of his games in hitter-friendly ballparks.

Also, Gonzalez, a left-handed batter, happens to be one of the best opposite field hitters in the game. Gonzo is a career 195/463 in balls hit to the opposite field. This translates to a .421/.418/.842 batting line, with 46 HR and 117 RBI.

Fenway Park has one of the best left field porches for power hitters, and Gonzalez should be able to utilize all parts of the park to his benefit. 

The Boston Globe’s Eric Wilbur, using Adrian Gonzalez’ hit chart from last season, explained how Gonzalez would have hit an additional 11 home runs had he played the entire season at Fenway Park. This, combined with his road production, could have yielded a 50+ HR season, despite neck and shoulder injuries.

In 2009, Gonzalez hit 40 HR, and he remains a legitimate 40+ HR candidate in Boston. If all goes well, he could be in the hunt for an MVP too.

Welcome to Boston, Adrian.

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So after a day of “Padres-Red Sox have a trade for Adrian Gonzalez!” “Never mind, they don’t.” “Wait, they got him after all!” trade talks between the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres, the Red Sox finally have their answer to Mark Teixeira.

The slugger from San Diego has finally come to Fenway after years of circulating rumors between the Padres and Red Sox.

The Red Sox drop three prospects—Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes—as well as a player to be named later. The Red Sox also lock up Gonzalez for the next eight years in a massive contract that will cost the Red Sox $167 million in all.

Gonzalez has long been one of the elite hitters in the game but is often overlooked when conversations about the best players in baseball come up, likely due to the fact that he plays on a small-market team.

Expect that to change now.

In his seven seasons with the Texas Rangers and Padres, Gonzalez consistently plays in over 150 games a year, hits for a lifetime average of .284 and has a slugging percentage of .507 with an OBP of .368 for an OPS of .875. In 2010, Gonzalez launched 31 homers with 101 RBI and an OPS of .904.

This trade comes just about a week and a half after fan favorite catcher Victor Martinez left Boston for the Detroit Tigers. Gonzalez is four years younger than Martinez, and although Martinez is a batter hitter for average, Gonzalez is a much better power hitter.

Because of the trade, this will likely mean that one of the pleasant surprises of 2010, Adrian Beltre, will not be re-signed by Boston, as Kevin Youkilis will likely move to third base to allow Gonzalez to play first base. Beltre rebounded in 2010 after years of mediocrity in Seattle, hitting a league-leading 49 doubles with 28 home runs, 102 RBI, an average of .321 and an OPS of .919.

Beltre will likely be missed by many Red Sox fans (assuming that the Red Sox don’t sign him), as will Martinez, but if Gonzalez is anything like he was in San Diego, he will more than make up for the losses.

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The San Diego Padres have traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for a trio of top prospects, despite the failure of Gonzalez and the Red Sox to come to terms on a contract extension before today’s early afternoon deadline.

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman and the Associated Press report that the deal will go through, though it remains a bit unclear whether Gonzalez and the Red Sox have now agreed to a long-term deal.

Gonzalez has 107 home runs since the start of the 2008 season, despite playing his home games in baseball’s least homer-friendly environs in San Diego’s PETCO Park. The Red Sox paid a steep price to acquire him, but should find Gonzalez well worth their investment: He could easily swat 40 or more home runs and reach base at a .400-plus clip in 2011.

The AL East is fundamentally different because of the trade, as is the free-agent market. This deal, in combination with Jayson Werth’s seven-year free-agent pact with the Nationals, will cause upheaval—and a whole lot of movement—at this week’s Winter Meetings in Florida.

Read on for five ripple effects Gonzalez’s acquisition will have on the goings-on at the MLB swap meet.

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If you have read my website (www.sox1fan.com) over the last several years you know that I have an infinite amount of respect for Red Sox GM Theo Epstein. He has proven himself to be a man of courage and principle, as was proven when he traded fan favorite Nomar Garciaparra at the 2004 trade deadline and then took his stand against Larry Lucchino back in 2005.

He has also demonstrated he is bold in the way he will conduct his business, as was apparent when he spent Thanksgiving Day with the Schillings in 2003. There is no question that he is an astute assessor of talent, both on the field and in the front office (except when it comes to selection of a shortstop).

He’s done an incredible job building the farm system and continually replenishing the supply of talent in the minor leagues. Oh yeah, and he (and his protegees) have delivered a pair of world championships to Red Sox Nation.

The string of shortstop misjudgments aside (i.e., Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro), he hasn’t made many errors in his stewardship of the organization. I won’t fault him for Daisuke Matsuzaka, as the entire baseball world believed he scored a coup in that deal.

Brad Penny and John Smoltz? Roll of the dice largely caused by circumstances beyond his control. The Teixeira debacle? It was attributable to the ownership triad that would not go beyond seven years for the current Yankees first baseman.

Look, I’m not giving him a free pass, but no one is perfect. The pluses of his tenure far outweigh the minuses. That is why the just-concluded deal for Adrian Gonzalez just doesn’t make sense to me.

On the face of it, sending three of our top 10 prospects to the San Diego Padres for Gonzalez (with a fourth prospect to be named later) just doesn’t make sense—unless Gonzo has already signed his name to a contract extension.

But, reportedly, the ballclub and Gonzalez were unable to come to terms on such an extension during the 30-hour (+/-) window they were granted.

Regardless, the Sox have finalized the deal with the Padres. Gone are Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Rey Fuentes…and, ultimately, another prospect. Arrived is Adrian Gonzalez…essentially on a one-year rental. It doesn’t make sense to me.

If this deal was pulled off by most other GM’s, I would say it is pretty stupid. But, in this instance we are talking about Theo Epstein, and the more I contemplate the trade the more I’m convinced he has something up his sleeve.

Last year, the club and Josh Beckett agreed to a contract extension during February, but withheld formally announcing the agreement until after Opening Day so the club (read: owners) could save millions of dollars in luxury tax payments.

It is not the way the luxury tax system was designed to work, but the ever-shrewed Epstein found a loophole that allowed him to keep both Beckett AND has bosses happy. It was a nifty trick.

Could that be what is going on here? Would the Red Sox have sent four prospects to San Diego if they didn’t already have a deal in place with Gonzalez? Could it be that today’s failure is just a ruse, designed to allow the organization additional financial flexibility as it navigates through the remaining pool of free agents this winter?

“Signing” Gonzalez a-f-t-e-r Opening Day might save the club $five or $six million in luxury tax payments (as a second-time violator of the salary cap, the Sox would be required to pay a 30 percent tax on all salary in excess of the 2011 threshold).

That is money that could be used to sign Carl Crawford, or Scott Downs (or Brian Fuentes), or anyone else they may have designs on to repair their bullpen (RHP Jon Rauch?).

We aren’t privy to what transpires behind the closed doors along Yawkey Way. We don’t know what happened during today’s talks between Gonzalez, agent John Boggs and Red Sox officials, but finalizing this deal without an extension in place does not make a bit of sense. And based on Theo’s track record, it seems safe to assume there is more here than meets the eye.

Something smells fishy!

Thus, the conspiracy theories must be advanced. Is it possible an extension for Gonzalez is actually in place, and that he’s the 2011 version of Josh Beckett.

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The past 24 hours have been quite a roller coaster for Red Sox nation.  First they received news that one of the games premier sluggers, the coveted Adrian Gonzalez, was going to be the team’s new first basemen.  

Then it was reported that the front office could not agree with the slugger on an extension and the trade was now dead, along with hope of a World Series contender next season.  Now, according to a report, Gonzalez has been acquired, again.

Assuming this deal does not fall through, as it did several hours ago, and Theo Epstein can manage to get Gonzalez’s contract extended (the inability to do so twice should make many question management’s ability to get things done) this deal is too good to be true.  

Gonzalez, currently 28 years old, is a “lineup pillar,” meaning you can build a lineup around him.  Which means with hitters like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury, this team has a world championship caliber top and middle of the order.  

One of Gonzalez’s teammates was reported as saying the slugger would add about 10 home runs to his average total (about 35 per year the past four years) hitting in a park and lineup like the Red Sox have.  

Also, this finally makes up for the organization’s inability to acquire Mark Teixeira before the 2009 season.  

Finally, Gonzalez is no slouch with the leather, having earned two Gold Gloves already in his career.  The Red Sox seemingly have never had a big time power hitter with Gold Glove caliber defense, at least recently.  

The magnitude of this trade cannot be understated.  Before the trade through many members of the Boston media were praising the move, discussing how much of a steal and how brilliant it was.  After it fell through it was almost a guarantee the front office would face vicious backlash from media and fans for being too inept to sign an MVP caliber player again.  

Fortunately, the Red Sox brass appears to have seen a flaw in their execution and will acquire Gonzalez for at least a season, with serious intentions on signing the extension (some numbers floating are seven years, $153 million).

I said earlier in the off-season I believed Carl Crawford was a necessity, however, that was because it seemed Gonzalez was not available, at least not for this few prospects. Now Theo Epstein has filled a hole in the lineup and at third base (Gonzalez moves Youkilis across the diamond) it is time to fix the bullpen and make this previously flawed team a legitimate favorite for the title.

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Adrian Gonzalez is reportedly close to officially becoming a member of the Boston Red Sox, despite the fact that the two sides have failed to reach a contract extension.

MSNBC.com and Fanhouse.com were the first to report this, about 30 minutes ago.

This comes after reports had surfaced that the Gonzalez deal was getting the nix, because the two sides were unable to reach an agreement on a new deal.

It’s very possible that the Sox used the 2 p.m. window allotted by Major League Baseball as an opportunity to sit down and get a concrete idea of what Gonzalez is looking for before making the deal official.

It’s important to note that the Sox would stand to save a significant amount of money on the MLB luxury tax if they wait until after opening day 2011 to announce a contract extension, ala Josh Beckett last year.

No official word yet from the Boston brass.

UPDATE: 8:48 p.m. – ESPN is confirming the story. The Padres are receiving P Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Raymond Fuentes, and a player to be named later, as was earlier reported.

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