As we fast approach the start of another baseball season, let’s return to a familiar question: Who’s better, the Yankees or the Red Sox?
The Red Sox made more upgrades to their roster during the offseason, but the Yankees were the better team last year. So where does that leave us? Let’s take a look, position by position.
As we near Spring Training, it’s about time to start making predictions and forming projections for each team. While there are still many free agents on the market, a sufficient amount have been signed in order to rank each team’s offense.
In ranking the league’s best offenses, there are many aspects being taken into consideration.
The ability to get on base is essential. You can only have so many Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn’s on your team before you start to lose efficiency.
However, the second major component is the ability to drive in runs. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Juan Pierre are all great, but without some pop in the lineup, they are meaningless to an extent.
Finally, depth is a major contributor to the success an offense can achieve. If (when) Carlos Beltran gets hurt, who do the Mets have to back him up? He may play the majority of the games, but the other 30 odd games count just as much.
With that, I’ll reveal my power rankings for the all 30 Major League Baseball teams. While the batting order may be incorrect, the players on each lineup are not. I bet you can guess number 30…
With most of the top free agents now signed and teams starting to take shape as we approach spring training, I thought I would share my pre-pre-season perspective on the relative strengths (and weaknesses) of all 30 major league teams. I have broken the article down into three installments, and will publish one of the segments each day this weekend.
Part I (Saturday) examined the three teams I view as the weakest in baseball; Part II (yesterday) covered the teams in the middle of the pack; and Part III (today) previews the 10 teams I believe to be the best in baseball.
Without further ado, here is how I see things:
The 2010-2011 MLB off season was one for the books. Whether it was news regarding Carl Crawford’s free agency or whether or not Zach Greinke would be traded, there was never a dull moment this winter for baseball fans. Very few teams remain in the same position as they were in November.
While there are still a handful of significant free agents still on the market such as Carl Pavano and Vladimir Guerrero, it is time to reflect on the unfolding of this winter. Which deals were the most significant? Who were the winners? Who is going to regret their aggressive behavior down the road?
In this article, I will examine the 25 most significant transactions from free agent signings to trades to re-signings. These transactions are not ranked based on how good the player(s) involved were, but how much the transaction will affect the team’s outcome.
It’s hard not to be giddy with anticipation right now if you’re a Boston Red Sox fan.
Coming off a frustrating season in which the team finished 7 games back in the AL East and had to watch the playoffs on their flat-screen TVs just like the rest of us, the Red Sox went out and acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, two of the most coveted players in the game, both in the early part of their prime.
Red Sox Nation has not seen such a major retooling of the lineup since the early 2000’s, when the team added Manny Ramirez (’01) and David Ortiz (’03), and in the process established themselves as a perennial 90-plus win team and championship contender. And this time it happened in just a matter of days instead of several years.
Sure, the Red Sox still face some minor offensive questions heading into spring training. Will Crawford bat leadoff or third? Where will Jacoby Ellsbury hit in the lineup? Will Boston have some struggles against left-handed pitching, given that Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are their only dangerous right-handed bats?
But these concerns truly are minor. The Red Sox are going to score runs, and they’re going to score runs consistently. They were second in all of baseball in runs scored last season, and the combination of Gonzalez, Crawford, a healthy Ellsbury, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia should at least rival the production the team received from departed free agents Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, along with the array of outfielders that frequently found their way into the lineup last year (Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Cameron, and Daniel Nava).
The real reason the Gonzalez and Crawford additions should be celebrated is because they set the Red Sox lineup up well for the long run.
Both players are under 30 years old, while Martinez and Beltre are on the wrong side of 30. Crawford brings across the board production and skills, while Martinez becomes more and more one-dimensional as he gets older and is able to catch fewer and fewer games. Gonzalez’s production in San Diego was held back by the worst ballpark for hitters in the majors, whereas Beltre, much like in 2004, is coming off a career year as he went in search of a new contract. (Beltre surpassed 100 RBIs and a .320 batting average in both his 2004 and 2010 contract years, but has not driven in 100 runs or hit above .276 in any other season since 2001.)
But while GM Theo Epstein did very well to acquire two major assets who should serve the team well for years, the Red Sox 2011 season will all come down to the performance of the pitching staff, and the starting rotation in particular.
The Red Sox finished 22nd in baseball in ERA in 2010. Few saw it coming, the Sporting News’ 2010 Red Sox preview, for one. The Sporting News wondered if the Red Sox “have enough offense” and their main concern with the pitching staff was “Who will be left out of the rotation,” since Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and Clay Buchholz all seemed like strong options. The Sporting News preview gave the Red Sox pitching staff an A grade–an evaluation which was the norm among baseball experts at the time.
Lester certainly held up his end of the bargain, and Buchholz developed into a dominating ace-caliber starter faster than even the most optimistic fan could have predicted. Wakefield and Matsuzaka’s struggles should not come as too great a surprise.
The real problem was that Lackey struggled mightily in his move from the AL West to AL East, and no one anticipated that the bottom would fall out completely for Beckett.
The Red Sox also ranked near the bottom of the league (23rd) in bullpen ERA, which came as a major surprise after they finished in the top 10 in 2009. While Daniel Bard established himself as the team’s closer of the future, Jonathan Papelbon had a sub par year, and no other reliever registered an ERA under 4. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez, who each played key roles in the bullpen in 2009, fell off considerably.
Papelbon should rebound heading into a contract year. And the Sox beefed up the bullpen with their offseason acquisitions of Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks. Wheeler makes for a very solid addition. He knows what it takes to succeed in the AL East, and has done quite well in each of the last three seasons in Tampa Bay. While Jenks’ name recognition probably rates higher than his actual value at this point, it would not be surprising for him to register a strong year pitching in middle relief rather than the pressure cooker of the ninth inning.
In the end, despite all of Epstein’s impressive moves this winter, the Red Sox 2011 season will be largely determined by two players that were already on the team last year: Lackey and Beckett. There are real questions about whether each is breaking down physically and can return to their former level of performance.
If Lackey and Beckett each continue to falter, Sox fans will have to hope for many 11-9 victories this summer. But if at least one of them can turn things around, the Red Sox have to be considered a World Series favorite.
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When the Boston Red Sox completed a trade with the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez in early December, the move was met with much fanfare.
As sports fans gradually transition from football mode into baseball mode, the excitement surrounding the A-Gone acquisition is sure to skyrocket heading into spring training.
While the Padres surprised the baseball world by competing for a playoff spot in 2010, they remain a small market team sitting far from the Northeast media machine.
But as Gonzalez dons a Red Sox uniform, he will officially be entering the big time and receiving the media attention that goes along with it.
No doubt the fantasy experts will be increasingly hyping Gonzalez too—and why shouldn’t they? He will be moving from the worst ballpark for hitters in all of baseball to Fenway Park, one of the best. He’ll also be leaving a lineup featuring Chris Denorfia, David Eckstein, Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick to join one featuring Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz.
Yet Gonzalez is still a bit underrated in some fantasy circles, despite all the hype about him joining the Red Sox.
The numbers Gonzalez has put up outside of spacious Petco Park provide a sneak preview of what fantasy owners can expect. Extrapolating his road stats over the last four years to a full season, Gonzalez is averaging a .306 batting average, 45 HRs, 128 RBI and 112 runs. Look at only the last three years, and the numbers are even better.
Gonzalez is also only 28 years old, which means he has just entered his prime. While it’s true Gonzalez had minor offseason surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, the procedure did not prevent the Red Sox from dealing three strong prospects for him, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.
Unless word spreads of any setbacks with Gonzalez’s shoulder, the move to Boston instantly vaults him ahead of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder in fantasy value among first basemen, because Gonzalez is the most likely of that group to pair a 40-HR season with a .300-plus batting average.
Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and perhaps Joey Votto are the only hitters in baseball more likely to reach those milestones than Gonzalez, and they’re the only first basemen who should be going ahead of Gonzalez in fantasy drafts.
Add it all together, and Adrian Gonzalez has the look of a mid-to-late first-round pick in 12-team fantasy leagues.
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Now that Adrian Gonzalez will be calling Fenway Park home instead of Petco Park, we have to wonder what we can expect from him this year (and in the future) in terms of fantasy production.
From all of the available data, it appears fantasy owners can expect a significant improvement from Gonzalez in four of the primary offensive statistics utilized in fantasy baseball (with the exception of stolen bases). Statistics suggest he will benefit from playing at Fenway Park in terms of batting average and home runs, and as part of the Red Sox lineup he will have many more opportunities for runs batted in and runs scored. In addition to the raw statistics, the data available at hittrackeronline.com supports the conclusion his home run production should be considerably higher playing for the Red Sox.
He will enjoy playing half of his games in Boston as opposed to San Diego. While Fenway Park is not the homer haven most fans believe, it’s significantly better than Petco Park: Fenway ranked near the middle of the pack in terms of most home runs per game (12th of 30 parks, at 2.09 hr/g) whereas Petco was near the bottom (tied for 24th at 1.56 hr/g). And while some of that difference may have something to do with the teams’ respective rosters, it is unlikely all of it can be explained by the difference in personnel.
Gonzalez hit 31 home runs last year (11 at home, 20 on the road) at an average distance of slightly more than 393.3 feet.
MLB.com provides a nice tool for reviewing a player’s performance at any major league ballpark (click here for Gonzalez’ player page). Once there, you are able to select an individual ballpark and the type(s) of batted ball you wish to review. (NOTE: in the chart below, I’ve selected Petco Park, and all of the doubles, home runs and fly outs which Gonzalez hit there in 2010).
The data provided on mlb.com was then overlayed onto the home run chart for Gonzalez that is provided at hit-tracker (see below)
Analysis of the available data indicates A-Gon may have lost up to four home runs on balls hit at Petco that would have gone for home runs at Fenway Park.
Some pundits might argue that such an improvement will be mitigated by the fact that he’ll be facing the pitching staffs of the AL East and not the NL West…but those suggestions don’t fly in the face of statistical analysis.
We know pitchers in the National League have an easier task on a game-in, game-out basis because of the hitting talents of the No.8 and No.9 hitters in the senior circuit (ERA numbers are improved by as much as a half-run and WHIP by as much as 15 percent due to facing the easier lineups). The performance of the respective AL East and NL West starting rotations suggest there is “a wash” in terms of the relative abilities of those pitchers (the following stats are for the five pitchers who made the most starts for each team):
AL East starting rotations: 236-187, 4.21 ERA, 1.325 WHIP
NL West starting rotations: 186-193, 3.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
For every Matt Cain in the NL West there is a CC Sabathia in the AL East, for every Tim Lincecum there’s a David Price. The starting rotations in Los Angeles and San Francisco favorably compare to those in New York and Tampa Bay, so it seems safe to deduce that Gonzalez is not going to be overwhelmed by the starting pitching in his new division.
And how will he fare against the better pitchers in the AL? It should be noted two of the home runs he hit last year were launched off Giants starter Matt Cain, and that he also homered off such notable hurlers as Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, James Sheilds and Shaun Marcum, among others. It seems to me he can hit a home run off CC Sabathia if he can hit one off Cliff Lee (especially if the teams are playing in the new Yankee Stadium softball field!).
Let’s take a look at some more numbers.
In 2010, he hit .421 in interleague play, with a .484 OBP and .772 slugging percentage… and over the last five years, here is how he fared against some of the top pitchers in the game:
vs. Matt Cain – in 64 PA, he hit .321, with a .391 OBP and .643 Slugging Pct
vs. Tim Lincecum – in 41 PA he hit .205, with a .244 OBP and .205 Slugging Pct
vs. Brandon Webb – in 41 PA, he hit .364, with a .488 OBP and .576 Slugging Pct
vs. Ubaldo Jiminez – in 32 PA, he hit .154, with a .313 OBP and .385 Slugging Pct
vs. Cole Hamels – in 26 PA, he hit .364, with a 0.462 OBP and .636 Slugging Pct
vs. Roy Oswalt – in 24 PA, he hit .300, with a .375 OBP and .600 Slugging Pct
vs. Felix Hernandez – in 23 PA, he hit .318, with a .348 OBP and .545 Slugging Pct
And what of facing southpaws (the AL East has a couple of outstanding lefties in Sabathia, Price and Ricky Romero, to name a few)? Well, Gonzalez has historically struggled a bit against southpaws… but, his splits have gradually improved and last year he actually managed to hit better against left-handed pitching than he did against righties:
vs. RHP: .278 / .377 / .510
vs. LHP: .337 / .424 / .513
And one last bit of information that suggests Gonzalez will flourish at Fenway Park: In road games last year, he hit .315, with a .402 OBP and .578 Slugging Pct—numbers that compare favorably to the road performance of the best first basemen in all of baseball, and which indicate he will enjoy being away from Petco Park:
Joey Votto: .349 / .452 / .641
Miguel Cabrera: .315 / .396 / .619
Albert Pujols: .291 / .392 / .599
Kevin Youkilis: .294 / .406 / .561
Prince Fielder: .252 / .379 / .427
Mark Teixeira: .227 / .320 / .408
All of the the statistical analysis and anecdotal information suggests Gonzalez will perform much better with the Red Sox. Freed from the suppressive offensive environment at Petco, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that he will hit .325, with 38 HR, 129 RBI and 105 R.
For this and more articles written by Jeffrey Brown, you can visit his website here.
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The best power hitting team in the game came out of the AL East in 2010. No, it wasn’t the Yankees, or the Red Sox, or the Rays. It was the Toronto Blue Jays. Lead by outfielder Jose Bautista, combined the Jays led the league in home runs by a mile.
The Blue Jays return a majority of their lineup, but with Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira looking for rebound seasons, the Blue Jays title will be under siege. Who will be the best power hitting team in the American League in 2011? Let’s find out.
Jon Lester is a name known throughout Major League Baseball as much for his battle with cancer as his pitching ability.
Lester had solid 2008 and 2009 seasons for the Red Sox before a serious coming out party in 2010. With a 19-9 record and a 3.25 ERA, Lester attended his first All Star Game and finished fourth in Cy Young voting.
All signs point to Lester, 27, continuing to improve in 2011. With a revamped roster and loftier expectations he is due for a stellar season.
Here are ten reasons that Jon Lester will add some hardware to his name as the 2011 American League Cy Young Award Winner.
With Boston’s offseason spending spree and Tampa Bay’s everything-must-go jumble sale, one can make a pretty good stab at how the AL East will play out in 2011.
The Yankees and Red Sox will fight it out for the top spot, the Blue Jays and Rays will compete for third and fourth and the Orioles will still languish at the bottom.
Obviously, any of the bottom three could make a run to the postseason as the Rays did in 2008, but it would be a staggering turnaround.
At first glance, this article may appear overloaded with players from Boston and New York but bear in mind, there is a simple reason they will be the favorites for the AL pennant: they have the best players.
If the O’s had more players on this list, they would not have had 13 consecutive losing seasons.