Kuzul

The 2015 Detroit Tigers didn’t come into this week short on things worth worrying about, but at least they had Victor Martinez. The 2014 American League MVP runner-up was just fine, thank you.

But the key word there is “was.” And for the Tigers, that has the potential to be devastating.

As the Tigers announced on Thursday, Martinez has a left knee injury that’s going to require him to go under the knife:

Not mentioned is how long Martinez’s recovery is going to take, but these tweets from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Morosi of Fox Sports cast doubt on the possibility of him being ready for Opening Day:

In other words: No, this is not a minor thing. If the odds of the switch-hitting 36-year-old repeating his league-leading .974 OPS and career-high 32 home runs from last season weren’t already long enough, Martinez now has to worry about making a full recovery and getting on track without the benefit of spring training.

The Tigers can hope for the best, but they need to plan for the worst. And in this case, the worst could be pretty bad.

Earlier this week, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, via MLB.com, that his roster for 2015 is “basically set.” Since that pretty much goes for the league’s other 29 rosters, now’s a safe time to look at what each team has and project how they could perform in 2015.

And for that, we have actual projections.

The good news is that Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have the Tigers pegged as the top team in the AL Central. The bad news is that it’s not by much. Both systems barely place them ahead of the Cleveland Indians and not that far ahead of the other teams in the division. And overall, Detroit’s projected record is the worst among baseball’s projected division champs.

This sounds silly based on the Tigers’ recent history as the dominant team in the AL Central, but anyone with objectivity will know the projections have a gripe. As we said at the outset, the Tigers came into the week with plenty of things worth worrying about.

Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are gone and have been replaced by Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene. Justin Verlander is coming off a year that screamed “Decline!” Miguel Cabrera appears to be damaged goods. J.D Martinez is a huge regression candidate. And as per usual, the Tigers bullpen stinks.

In the middle of all this were two pieces that looked solid. One was David Price, and the other was Martinez. And even with the latter unlikely to repeat his other-worldly 2014, both BP’s and FanGraphs‘ projections were taking it for granted that he would be one of Detroit’s more productive hitters in 2015.

And in fairness, there is a chance he will be. Maybe he can make a quick and strong recovery, step into the box on Opening Day and go from there.

We have good reasons, however, not to take that possibility for granted.

For starters, there’s the reality that Martinez is a 36-year-old former catcher. It’s not advised to expect quick and strong recoveries from players like that. Throw in how Martinez missed the entire 2012 season with a left knee injury, and a quick and strong recovery seems all the more unlikely.

This is not to say he can’t be ready by Opening Day or shortly thereafter, mind you. Really, the bigger question is the one that Jon Morosi posed:

To this end, there isn’t a whole lot of precedent we can turn to. But one particularly scary example is Joey Votto.

In 2012, Votto was on an absolutely roll with a .342 average and a .604 slugging percentage through 86 games. But then he went in for medial meniscus surgery on his own left knee, and he returned to hit just .316 with a .421 slugging percentage. That’s a huge loss of power, one that Votto hasn’t yet fully recovered from.

There’s one example of a hitter brought low by the kind of injury Martinez is dealing with, and he himself doesn’t have the most encouraging history with recovering from serious knee injuries.

When Martinez came back from his year off in 2013, he never really got his power going. As FanGraphs can show, even as he increased his batting average by over 100 points from the first half to the second half, his Isolated Slugging (slugging percentage minus singles) only improved by 17 points.

As MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince put it, Martinez’s power was compromised because he was still working to “get his legs back into playing shape.” And throughout the year, it’s not surprising that his power was slightly worse from the left side of the plate. When batting lefty, his surgically repaired left leg wasn’t exactly a sturdy foundation from which to draw power.

Granted, Martinez’s latest knee injury isn’t as serious as the torn ACL that robbed him of his 2012 season. But there could very well end up being a sizable gap between the time when Martinez is healthy and the time when he’s in real playing shape. Those two are different things, after all.

If the price for that is a notable loss of power, a guy who was the Tigers’ most dangerous hitter in 2014 is going to be rendered ordinary for a solid chunk of 2015. In light of the lack of talent separation between them and the rest of the AL Central, that could be a deal-breaker for their entire season.

What could brighten the mood would be Dombrowski pulling a rabbit out of his hat like when he responded to Martinez’s 2012 injury by signing Prince Fielder. That ended up having the desired effect, as Fielder easily replaced Martinez’s production.

But don’t count on this happening. There are no hitters even close to Fielder’s caliber on the free-agent market, and the Tigers are short on the payroll flexibility and the expendable assets they would need to acquire a star-level hitter in a trade.

So what the Tigers should be doing right now is wishing, hoping and/or praying that Martinez can shrug this injury off and immediately start hitting like it never happened.

Because right now, it looks like a season that hasn’t even begun yet has been dealt a killing blow.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Tigers slugger Victor Martinez will undergo surgery for a torn meniscus, which could see the star hitter miss the start of the regular season. 

Continue for updates.

Martinez Out at Least 4-6 Weeks

Friday, Feb. 6

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press talked to the surgeon performing surgery on Victor Martinez, who said that the slugger would miss a minimum of four to six weeks but could miss up to 16 weeks depending on the extent of the damage.  

Martinez to Undergo Surgery on Meniscus 

Thursday, Feb. 5 

Detroit Tigers star Victor Martinez’s status for spring training and the regular season is uncertain, as the slugger will have to undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.

According to a statement the Tigers released on Twitter, Martinez will have surgery February 10 after injuring the knee during an offseason workout:

This is the second time in three years that Martinez has suffered an injury to his left knee in the offseason. In January 2012, he tore his ACL and missed the entire season. 

Martinez, who finished second in American League MVP voting last year, is coming off the best season of his career. He set career highs in home runs (32), average (.335), on-base percentage (.409) and slugging percentage (.565). 

Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski talked about Martinez’s injury and what the club plans to do to replace him, according to Gabe Lacques of USA Today:

The Tigers rewarded Martinez’s efforts with a four-year contract extension worth $68 million in November. If Martinez can’t go on Opening Day, the Tigers lack a ready-made replacement for him at designated hitter. While first baseman Miguel Cabrera is a logical choice, the team was already thin on bench power. Either way, the Tigers would be adding a light-hitting bat to the lineup.

Given what he did last year, not to mention how Max Scherzer’s departure has weakened Detroit’s pitching staff, losing an All-Star hitter would put a huge dent in the team’s hopes of making the playoffs in 2015—even if Martinez isn’t able to replicate last year’s form.  

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With seven new high-profile additions, the Chicago White Sox will lift the lid on the 2015 season with a 25-man roster that is dramatically different than the one that opened last year’s campaign.

Because of the stark differences between the two rosters, expectations on the South Side are quite lofty. That leads to a natural question: Which players are the most important for success this season?

Well, that question can be answered in any number of ways, but we’ve identified five guys—two pitchers and one starter from each third of the lineup—who can sway the outcome on a nightly basis.

Keep in mind that there is no scientific formula used in determining the composition of this list. Just about every projected member of the Opening Day roster warrants inclusion on some level.

This is merely our take on the guys who will determine whether or not the 2015 White Sox make the playoffs or find themselves on the outside looking in for the seventh consecutive season.

Here are the five players whose performances are most important to success this season for manager Robin Ventura’s crew.

Begin Slideshow

The Cleveland Indians don’t have many position battles to speak of, but the few that will take place this spring are very tightly contested.

A few positions jump off the page as potential battle grounds, those being shortstop, the back-end of the starting rotation and the final of three projected left-handed relief spots. To fill those spots, a bevy of contenders will come forward, including numerous veteran options and a handful of young, intriguing prospects from the farm system.

Over the remainder of this piece, we’ll handicap the team’s most hotly contested spring training position battles, beginning with the final left-handed relief spot in a relatively solid bullpen.

Left-Handed Relief Role No. 3

One might see Kyle Crockett as a shoe-in for the final left-handed relief spot in the Tribe’s bullpen.

Crockett appeared in 43 games for the Indians last season, allowing just a 1.80 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 30 innings pitched. The 23-year-old paired those outstanding numbers with some impressive ratios, including 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 3.50 K/BB.

Despite all that, an offseason signing has complicated the University of Virginia product’s chances at securing a job at the big league level in 2015. 

The team signed veteran lefty Scott Downs back in December, and the 38-year-old figures to at least get a shot at one of three bullpen spots presumed to be reserved for lefties.

Downs has been an outstanding reliever for most of his 13-year career, allowing a 3.56 ERA and a 1.34 ERA over 619 total appearances (including 50 starts).

Last year, Downs struggled through the season’s first half, allowing a whopping 6.08 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over 38 appearances with the Chicago White Sox. He got a second chance in the latter half of the year, working out of the Kansas City Royals bullpen and allowed a 3.14 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 17 appearances (14.1 innings pitched).

Downs pitched well for a contending team, and that speaks volumes to his ability and what he can bring to a team. That being said, Crockett is the front-runner for the final bullpen spot. 

Crockett has age and upside in his corner, and at this point in his career, Crockett, who is 15 years Downs’ junior, presents the Indians with a better long-term option out of the pen.

Fifth Starter

Aside from Corey Kluber‘s Cy Young winning campaign in 2014, the Indians rotation was an utter disaster. Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Zach McAllister all underperformed and the team had to turn to a few unproven commodities in the likes of T.J. House and Carlos Carrasco (both of whom performed admirably).

This year, the rotation looks mostly set heading into spring training, with Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar and newcomer Gavin Floyd as front-runners for the first four spots.

That leaves one spot for the likes of House, Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson.

Of the four, Bauer has the inside track at a spot. The 24-year-old has easily the best upside of the group but possibly the biggest bust potential as well.

Bauer struggled last year, allowing 3.5 walks per nine innings while averaging slightly over 99 pitches per appearance despite averaging under six innings per start. Bauer’s control has been an issue that’s followed him all throughout his minor league career, but it’s something he’ll have to address in order to take one last step forward.

Should he finally get himself straightened out, Bauer’s fastball, curveball and changeup combo has all the makings of an arsenal built for a front-end starter. Until then, the former UCLA standout remains a major bust candidate as well.

Tomlin is likely to serve in a minor league depth role, filling in both in the bullpen and rotation. House and Anderson are the serious contenders, though.

House filled in as a big league starter in 2014, making 18 starts (19 total appearances) and allowing a 3.35 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 102 innings pitched. House is young (and has options), so his path this year looks to begin in the minor leagues.

Anderson is a stout 6’4″, 220 pound righty with a solid track record in the minors (excluding a poor showing in Double-A last year). Through 2011, 2012 and 2013, Anderson posted ERAs of 1.80, 3.20 and 2.65, respectively, as he moved through the Low-A, High-A and Double-A levels.

Anderson will get a look here in spring training, but his struggles in Double-A last year forecast a return to the Double-A or Triple-A level.

At the end of the day, Bauer looks to be the best choice to start the season, with Tomlin, Anderson and House rounding out the backup options.

Shortstop

The battle at shortstop will be easily the most fun to watch this spring. Top prospect Francisco Lindor, veteran Mike Aviles and 2014 standout Jose Ramirez will all be vying for the starting gig down in Arizona, and, for the most part, they all stand on pretty even ground.

Aviles has experience on his side, but that’s about it. The 33-year-old hasn’t eclipsed the .260/.300 mark in any of the last four seasons, and his -0.8 and 1.5 UZR marks at shortstop in 2013 and 2014, respectively, show that the seven-year veteran is probably better suited for a backup role where he’s free to play short, second, third and a little outfield.

The real battle for the starting job is between Ramirez and Lindor.

Ramirez held his own last year, logging a .262/.300/.346 slash line over 266 plate appearances. In addition, the 21-year-old managed 10 doubles, two home runs, 17 RBI, 27 runs scored and 10 stolen bases.

Ramirez is young and has little left to prove at the minor league level, having logged batting averages and on-base percentages in excess of .270 and .325 at each stop in his minor league career.

Defensively, Ramirez is rivaled by few in the Indians’ system. The Dominican Republic native managed UZR/150 values of 16.3 and 18.9 at shortstop and second base last season, respectively, and if he does lose out to Lindor, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ramirez and Lindor work on opposite sides of second base for large chunks of their MLB careers.

The sexy option for many fans would be to drop Lindor right into a starting role. Lindor is a stud prospect in every sense of the word, and it’s embodied perfectly by the Columbus Clippers’ tweet below.

However, Lindor may not be ready for all of that at this point.

Defensively, no shortstop in any minor league system can rival Lindor‘s expertise. The 21-year-old’s glove and instincts in the field grade out as plus-plus tools, but his hit tool is significantly weaker.

Though Lindor has shown an ability to hit for an average and to get on base—he possesses a .278 minor league batting average and .355 on-base percentage—he has shown little in the way of power, averaging just a .381 slugging percentage over his four professional seasons.

Last year, Lindor slugged a career-best 11 home runs between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. While that’s a nice step, Lindor mustered just a total of 31 extra-base hits last year and a .389 slugging percentage (nearly identical to his career average).

Lindor‘s hit tool needs further development in the minors. His extra-base hit totals are driven up by his above-average speed, and he showed a slight lack of awareness on the base paths last season, connecting on just 63.6 percent of his attempts to swipe a bag.

Given the development that still needs to take place in Lindor‘s game, it’s safe to bet on his return to the Triple-A level. At least for the beginning of the 2015 season.

That, by default, sends Ramirez to the top of the heap.

Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Follow me on Twitter 

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When David Price first joined the Detroit Tigers last summer, he was joining a rotation that looked like baseball’s answer to The Avengers. It was a super-rotation, alright, with a collection of the last three American League Cy Young winners. 

But that was then. This is now. Where Price was one of the guys then, he’s must be the guy now if Detroit’s pitching is going to be worth a darn in 2015.

That’s is a dicey proposition, but we can get into it after we first get caught up.

You may have noticed the last few months haven’t been kind to Detroit’s rotation. Justin Verlander never pulled out of the cringeworthy slump that started last May, putting one former Cy Young winner on the rocks. Another departed when Max Scherzer signed a megacontract with the Washington Nationals.

Rick Porcello, he of the career-best 3.43 ERA last year, is also gone. He and Scherzer have been replaced by Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene, making Detroit’s projected rotation:

1. David Price
2. Justin Verlander
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Alfredo Simon
5. Shane Greene

This is barring any additional moves, of course, but it sounds like we can bar them. 

“We’re happy with the guys we have,” Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski told Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. “And we anticipate this will be the five going into the season.”

Admittedly, things could look worse on paper. Price and Verlander are still former Cy Young winners. Sanchez quietly won the AL ERA crown in 2013. Simon was a National League All-Star in 2014. Greene broke through to the tune of a solid 3.78 ERA in 2014.

For each positive outlook, however, there’s one at least equally strong negative outlook.

Verlander is a soon-to-be 32-year-old with declining velocity who was among baseball’s worst pitchers in 2014. Sanchez is a 30-year-old whose 2014 was wrecked by injuries, and his overall injury history suggests good health is probably not forthcoming. Simon regressed badly after last year’s All-Star break. Greene’s breakout was limited to a mere 14-start sample size.

So no, Detroit’s rotation doesn’t look particularly strong. Definitely not as strong as your typical Tigers rotation, anyway, and the projections bear that out.

FanGraphs’ 2015 projections barely have the Tigers in the top 10 for starting pitcher Wins Above Replacement, which is saying something since Tigers starters have produced by far the most WAR of any team’s starters since 2011.

Once you factor in how Detroit’s bullpen is still weak and how the club’s offense will be banking on a badly damaged Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers’ chances of being contenders in 2015 may hinge on their rotation being at least as good as the projections expect it to be. Hopefully for Detroit, it will be even better.

And more than anyone, that will come down to Price.

On the surface, it doesn’t look like the idea of Price being the ace the Tigers need him to be is worth worrying about. The 29-year-old southpaw is elite by reputation, and he’s coming off an ace-like year.

Price led all major league pitchers in innings pitched (248.1) and strikeouts (271) in 2014. He also only walked 38 along the way, giving him a 7.13 K/BB ratio that ranked among baseball’s best.

If that sounds like a guy who pitched better than his non-ace-like 3.26 ERA indicates, there is an explanation for that. Per FanGraphs, the FIP, xFIP and SIERA metrics all think Price should have had an ERA in the 2.70 range. Knowing these metrics can be more predictive of future performance than ERA, that bodes well.

It also says a lot about Price that he looks like an ideal ace from some perspectives. He’s turned himself into an elite strike-thrower, as he ranked among the elites in strike percentage and zone percentage in 2014. But he also still has power stuff, as evidenced by his career-best 10.5 swinging-strike percentage.

So in theory, Price could be the ace the Tigers need him to be in 2015 by picking up where he left off. He was already really good, and him being even better could be a matter of him simply collecting on the good luck that didn’t come his way often enough in 2014.

There’s a chance, however, that it might not be that simple. Though there’s a lot to like about how Price pitched last year, that modest 3.26 ERA isn’t actually that misleading.

Price may have led the league in strikeouts last year, but he also led in hits allowed while allowing a career-high 25 home runs. The size of his workload was a factor, granted, but so was hard contact.

The two best batted balls a pitcher can hope for are ground balls and infield pop-ups. And according to FanGraphs, Price experienced career worsts in both categories (GB% and IFFB%) as a starter in 2014:

When batters aren’t hitting ground balls or pop-ups, they’re hitting line drives and fly balls. Those are two things that can really sting pitchers, and Price did indeed give up a bunch of both. He was one of only 12 qualified starters with a line-drive rate of at least 20.6 and a fly-ball rate of at least 38.0.

And in Price’s case, this isn’t fluky. Pitchers can invite hard contact, after all, and he was guilty of that.

For starters, Price wasn’t very subtle with where he threw the ball in the strike zone. He went right down the middle of the zone more than anyone else in baseball, per BaseballSavant.com, and gave up more fly balls and line drives in that vicinity than all but four others.

That’s the risk you run when you pitch down the middle, and the risk is heightened if you can’t blow hitters away and/or keep hitters off balance.

And on those fronts, Price’s outlook isn’t entirely positive.

Though Brooks Baseball can vouch that Price got plenty of whiffs on his heat in 2014, repeating that could be tough. According to FanGraphs, his average heater has declined from a peak of 95.5 miles per hour in 2012 to 93.2 miles per hour in 2014. In 2015, it should slip even further.

Price will have to change speeds effectively to hide that, and the catch there is his primary pitch for the job suddenly doesn’t look up to the task.

Over the last few years, Price has all but shelved his curveball in favor of his changeup. That’s a fine idea in theory, but it wasn’t an effective pitch in 2014. By True Average—Baseball Prospectus’ all-encompassing batting metric—it was actually one of the five worst among heavily-used changeups.

When Jake Dal Porto of Beyond the Box Score looked in June, he noticed that a lot of that had to do with how many of Price’s changeups were finding their way down the middle. Here’s an example, courtesy of George Springer:

But Price’s changeup velocity was just as big an issue. While his fastball velocity went down to 93.2 miles per hour, his changeup velocity went up to 84.9 miles per hour.

That’s only an 8.3 mile-per-hour difference, which is notably less than the 10-plus mile-per-hour difference that Harry Pavlidis of Baseball Prospectus says is ideal. And while location issues can be tweaked, this is something that will be considerably harder to fix.

If you want the short version of all this, here it is: Maybe Price improving on his 2014 season won’t be as simple as him picking up where he left off and collecting on some outstanding good luck. If he wants to avoid the hard contact that plagued him in 2014, he may have to adjust.

To this end, the bright side is that there’s hope. Maybe Price can become the next Jon Lester.

Price has already evolved into an all-out assaulter of the strike zone, so his next step should be to become more crafty with what appears to be fading stuff. That’s where Lester works as an example to strive for, as Grantland’s Shane Ryan highlighted how Lester found success by masking diminished stuff with pinpoint command and sequencing. 

All Price has to do to take after Lester is improve his already very good command and maybe become more unpredictable in how he distributes his fastball and changeup. If he can do that, he could turn into a strikeout machine who also manages contact well.

It’s hard to ask for a more ideal ace than that. But one way or another, that’s the kind of ace the Tigers will need. Such a pitcher would have been overkill if their rotation still had Scherzer and Porcello alongside a vintage Verlander and a functional Sanchez, but that’s not what the Tigers have.

No, sir. What they have is a rotation that needs to be strong enough at the top to make you forget about the bottom. 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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This is a curious case for Corey Kluber. 

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner and his Cleveland Indians employers have yet to discuss a contract extension, but considering his potential value and cost, Kluber makes sense as a guy the team would want to sign to an extension.

The Indians have already acknowledged that much.

Indians may look to negotiate contract extension w/ Corey Kluber in Feb/Mar, but for now nothing brewing. CK under team control for 4 years.

— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) January 25, 2015

“Corey represents all of the things we look for in players: dependable, reliable person, committed to his work ethic, talented,” Indians President Mark Shapiro told reporters last week, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. “Then you look at contracts and you say, ‘Can we find that point where we’re both comfortable with the shared risk?’ We don’t know that right now. That’s something that we’ll have to look at.

“As prioritization of the calendar goes, it’s something we’ll probably look at over the next couple of months. … He has all the precursors that we would look for to enter into a multiyear agreement.”

The club has long been unwilling to accept that shared risk Shapiro talks about. While the team has been aggressive in building contract extensions for some of its position players—Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes—it has been dormant with pitchers. It did not sign its previous ace, Justin Masterson, to an extension, leaving Roberto Hernandez, then known as Fausto Carmona, in 2008 as the last pitcher the Indians have signed to an extension.

But Kluber, whose Cy Young campaign came in his second full season in the majors, could become quite expensive if he continues to produce like an ace. The Indians understand this, and that is why the thought of a new contract makes plenty of sense.

For the numbers Kluber put up last season, he is being paid like a peasant in the kingdom of Major League Baseball. He made $514,000 last season and is set to again make the league minimum this season before reaching arbitration. That price tag for 2015 could give the Indians hesitance in striking a new deal, but if Kluber continues to perform, the Indians could still have him at a bargain.

When the Chicago White Sox extended Chris Sale before the 2013 season, he had similar service time (two-plus years) as Kluber. That contract was worth $32.5 million over five years, and at around this time a year ago, the Atlanta Braves signed Julio Teheran to a six-year, $32.4 million deal. The Teheran contract came after his rookie season, and both extensions covered at least one year of free agency. The deals were in line with ones signed by Madison Bumgarner (five years, $35 million) and Ricky Romero (five years, $30.1 million).

A deal for Kluber would likely look very similar to those signed before this season. The difference between Kluber and those other pitchers is age. Kluber turns 29 on April 10, and buying even one free-agent season would mean the Indians are paying a 33-year-old pitcher, something the mid-market team has deliberately avoided.

If the Indians do not extend Kluber before his arbitration years kick in after this season, the risk is expensive, as arbitration prices for aces have reached all-time highs.

Just a couple weeks ago, Detroit Tigers ace David Price annihilated the previous record for an arbitration-eligible player, which was set last year by Max Scherzer at $15.25 million. Price was coming off a good but not great season in which he led the American League in strikeouts and innings pitched but managed just a modest 117 ERA-plus. Still, his track record and previous salary earned him a one-year, $19.75 million contract. Price’s salary was boosted by the fact that he was a Super Two player, giving him an extra year of arbitration.

If Kluber continues to be a Cy Young candidate, the Indians could see his value in arbitration skyrocket to a number they are uncomfortable paying. In that case, cost certainty, and regulating Kluber’s salary, makes a lot of sense for the organization.

The reason an extension makes sense for Kluber is the same reason the Indians might balk at buying out free-agent years: age. Kluber is a late bloomer who performed at a completely unexpected level in 2014. Certainly there is no assurance he will continue to dominate the AL as he did last season, so taking the guaranteed money is the smart, safe play. And if he can get any number of his free-agent years bought out, he should take that money, too.

As for why, aside from the obvious guaranteed cash, Kluber needs to look no further than James Shields’ struggle to land what he believes he is worth this offseason. Shields was hoping for a nine-figure contract, one that would earn him in the neighborhood of $20 million as the average annual value. Those hopes seem to have been dashed, as the 33-year-old is still unsigned two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training.

As for the possibility of all of this actually happening, Kluber is deflecting.

“That’s not my job to worry about that,” Kluber said to Zack Meisel of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. “My job is to go out there and pitch. I have agents that can handle that stuff for me when the time comes. My job is to get prepared to play this season.”

Clearly, both sides are open to making it happen. The next two months will tell us if this sensible deal will happen sooner rather than later.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The Kansas City Royals made a big splash in 2012 when they traded away top-rated prospect Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. It revealed a desire to transition from rebuilding to contending in Kansas City. 

But Shields was always perceived as a bit of a “rental player.” The Royals would keep him until his current contract ran out and then move on, happily receiving the draft-pick compensation the pitcher would be attached to.

To this point, it seems that perception is reality. Shields delivered Kansas City two good seasons. The team found some success in the postseason. Now, Shields’ contract has expired and he will pitch elsewhere on a brand new, high-dollar contract.

But it’s January, Shields doesn’t have a new contract and the market for the hurler has yet to truly materialize. There is plenty of speculation, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has pointed out, but it seems to be nothing more.

It would be fair to assume that Shields will receive a contract worth less than originally thought the deeper into the offseason he goes. It may also come with a lower dollar value or fewer years than what he was hoping for. Those factors could lead to a reunion with the Royals.

The Royals are not a team that is known to splurge on its players. They tend to bring players on at a low cost and allow them to accumulate value. Shields may be open to a short-term contract that would allow him to re-approach the market again later.

The problem is that Shields in not getting any younger. He will open the 2015 season at 33 years old. Coming back to market at the age of 34 or 35 is certainly not going to help the right-hander find a long-term deal. His market may very well diminish before he can get back to it, even in a year or two.

Rosenthal states in his piece a belief that Shields will eventually sign a deal worth $70 to 80 million over the course of four years. The low end of that speculation would certainly drive some interest in Shields.

He goes on to speculate where Shields may wind up, citing a recent MLB Network Radio interview with Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Moore told the show, “I can’t say it hasn’t crossed my mind. At this point in time, though, it’s doubtful we bring back James.”

Doubtful does not mean impossible. Shields would solidify an impressive rotation in Kansas City. He would do the same for a lot of clubs. Ultimately, there may not be another team that understands Shields’ value as well as the Royals.

As Moore stated, Shields returning to Kansas City is doubtful. But doubts are the stuff dreams are made of, and January is when doubts turn into reality.

Transaction and age information in this article courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

Bill Ivie is the founder of I-70 Baseball. Follow him on Twitter to discuss baseball anytime.

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The Detroit Tigers reached a settlement agreement on a one-year deal with ace David Price on Friday, avoiding salary arbitration in the process. The starting pitcher will make just shy of $20 million in 2015.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports passed along word of the deal:

Aaron Gleeman of Hardball Talk notes the agreement sets a new standard for these types of contracts:

“David Price will get $19.75 million in his final season before free agency, avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal with the Tigers that represents the highest arbitration-based salary of all time.”

Given the high price tag, it’s a bit surprising the Tigers didn’t attempt to go through the arbitration process. It may have allowed them to reduce the cost a bit. But Price was always going to get compensated extremely well for next season.

The left-hander arrived in Detroit ahead of the trade deadline last season, after spending the first six-and-a-half years with the Tampa Bay Rays. Between the two teams, he posted a combined 15-12 record and a 3.26 ERA in 34 starts, while striking out 271 batters in 248.1 innings.

Quite simply, Price is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he’s on top of his game. The fact that he’s a lefty simply adds to his value. The Tigers will slot him in as their ace, but he could end up elsewhere before 2015 is over.

The 29-year-old starter is set to become a free agent next winter. If he’s able to get that much money while under arbitration, it’s amazing to think what type of money he could command on the open market. The Tigers could look to trade him to retain some value.

The new contract marks the start of what could be a very interesting 15-month stretch for Price. 

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The Detroit Tigers have had yet another frenzied offseason. They didn’t waste any time getting started—within a few weeks of the season ending, Victor Martinez was re-signed, and they had picked up Joakim Soria’s option.

This early activity set the tone for the weeks to come. Other noteworthy additions included Yoenis Cespedes and Alfredo Simon, while Rick Porcello and Torii Hunter were among the significant departures.

Don’t expect the drama to end there, either. Detroit’s incumbent ace, Max Scherzer, is still unsigned with a possibility of coming back to the club.

Ultimately, some will win and others will lose in this revolving door of players. Let’s see who has (and hasn’t) fared well so far.

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After managing the Kansas City Royals to their first American League pennant in nearly three decades, Ned Yost has been rewarded with a one-year contract extension.    

The team announced the news on Twitter:

Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star provided further information about the 60-year-old’s long-term future with the team:

Yost has long been criticized for his questionable in-game decisions and strategies, but the results he got from a young club in 2014 were undeniably impressive. Taking a team that was 19th in the majors in Opening Day payroll, Yost led the Royals to an 89-73 record and the team’s first postseason appearance since 1985. 

Once in the playoffs, he utilized his team’s speed with aggressive calls on the basepaths to defeat the Oakland A’s in the AL Wild Card Game, sweep the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles before falling in seven games to San Francisco Giants in the Fall Classic. 

He finished third AL Manager of the Year voting. 

Yost’s managing style—his propensity to have his team lay down sacrifice bunts, in particular—will likely continue to draw criticism.

For now, though, that doesn’t matter. He has the job security to keep managing however he wants.

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