Kuzul

Major League Baseball’s reigning home run champion has a new contract, and it’s not the most expensive contract signed this winter.

Not even close.

Mark Trumbo, he of the league-leading 47 home runs in 2016, agreed to return to the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports was first with the details of his new deal:

And that’s all there is to it. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, there’s no opt-out in Trumbo‘s contract. He’ll be an Oriole for three more years, spanning his age-31 season to his age-33 season.

With that, we now know the terms of the 11th-largest contract signed this winter.

Trumbo‘s deal ranks just ahead of the three-year, $33 million pact that Kendrys Morales signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. The group of 10 players ahead of him is headlined by Yoenis Cespedes at four years and $110 million and also includes three relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon), a platoon outfielder (Josh Reddick) and an oft-injured starter (Rich Hill).

OK, so it’s not the biggest injustice that Trumbo won’t be making more money than most or all of those guys. But if nothing else, he is coming in under initial projections.

The guys at MLB Trade Rumors, for example, had Trumbo pegged for $60 million over four years. That didn’t sound so unreasonable for a guy who had hit 131 homers in five major league seasons even before breaking out in 2016. Teams normally do love power, after all.

But in retrospect, the danger of Trumbo struggling to find a market existed from the very beginning.

As good as it looks on the surface, Trumbo‘s career year in 2016 was more like a career half-year. He was unstoppable with a .923 OPS and 28 homers in the first half. He was then quite stoppable in the second half with a .754 OPS and 19 homers.

This was an effect of pitchers treating Trumbo like the kind of slugger he was. As Brooks Baseball shows, the righty swinger’s first-half power was concentrated on the inside. So pitchers went from challenging him:

To pitching him almost exclusively away:

A more advanced hitter might have been able to adjust, but nobody’s ever accused Trumbo of being one of those. With too many strikeouts and not quite enough walks, his hitting has always been about power first and everything else second.

That’s one thing prospective suitors had to worry about. They also had to worry about Trumbo‘s defensive limitations.

He’s not too shabby a first baseman, but most of his experience has been in corner outfield spots. With minus-24 defensive runs saved for his career, he has been shabby there. The man himself was honest back in July, saying the outfield is “daunting” at times, per Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.

Trumbo was thus prepared to head out onto the open market with a bat-only profile in which even the bat came with question marks. He then added another black mark to his profile when he rejected a $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Orioles, tying himself to draft-pick compensation.

In past offseasons, he might have found his desired payday anyway. Heck, it was just a couple years ago that Nelson Cruz, an older hitter with a similar profile, landed $58 million despite being tied to draft-pick compensation.

But at a certain point, it became apparent this offseason was different.

Reality started to sink in when Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Cleveland Indians for just $60 million over three years. That was well below the $92 million MLBTR projected for him and less than he seemingly deserved in light of his average totals (.912 OPS, 39 HR) since 2012.

More recently, Jose Bautista became the next slugger to land short of expectations when he accepted a deal from the Blue Jays that only guarantees $18 million for one year.

With Trumbo being the latest to come in below expectations, things aren’t looking so hot for remaining free-agent sluggers Chris Carter, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez and Adam Lind.

Certainly, this is an unusually large collection of sluggers for a single offseason. But as Dave Cameron argued at FanGraphs, there’s something fishy about any notion of there being more supply than demand:

But the way you get a big supply of free agents or players available in trade at one spot is to have a lot of teams losing a player at that spot, so if the demand was there to replace the skillset, price shouldn’t be impacted all that heavily. But what we have now is supply without demand, as there just aren’t that many teams looking to add bat-first players to their rosters this winter…

This could be teams miscalculating how much they need power. But since the smart people who run these teams tend to be good with calculations, this is more likely the effect of a larger trend.

This brings us to a reality that B/R’s Jacob Shafer wrote about recently: Power on the free-agent market may be devalued because power is suddenly everywhere in today’s game.

Trumbo wasn’t the only one launching bombs in 2016. Pretty much everyone was. There were more home runs per game last year than every year in baseball history except 2000. In an environment like this one, power hitters aren’t such a rare commodity.

It all adds up to a tough break for Trumbo and a solid deal for the Orioles. And one they needed to make, to boot.

The Orioles won 89 games and nabbed a wild-card spot in 2016 in large part thanks to an offense that clubbed an MLB-high 253 home runs. With Trumbo back in the fold, they once again have a shot to ride a wave of home runs to October.

In lieu of the contract he may have been hoping for, maybe that’ll do as a consolation prize for Trumbo.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

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Outfielder Mark Trumbo agreed to re-sign with the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, the team announced. 

Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun first reported the deal on Thursday. 

According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the three-year deal is for $37.5 million. ESPN’s Jim Bowden reported Trumbo has a limited no-trade clause for seven teams and incentivized, tiered bonuses dependent on how many times he wins the Silver Slugger award. 

Trumbo, 31, had a career year for the Orioles in 2016, hitting .256 with 47 home runs—the most in the major leagues—and 108 RBI. His home run and RBI totals were both career highs.

While Trumbo flashed excellent power earlier in his career—from 2011 to 2013, he hit 95 home runs with 282 RBI for the Los Angeles Angels—he established himself as one of baseball’s most dangerous power hitters last season.

That was in stark contrast to his stints with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners in 2014 and 2015, when he totaled just 36 homers and 125 RBI.

His surge in production left him as one of the most appealing free agents on the market for teams looking to add a big bopper to the middle of their lineups. That made Baltimore’s chances of retaining him uncertain, though Trumbo seemed inclined to return to the Orioles following the season.

“I love it here,” he told Steve Melewski of MASN after the team’s Wild Card Game loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. “Had a great time and I’m sure we’ll talk at some point. Who wouldn’t (want to come back)? It has been an absolute blast this year.”

The Orioles wanted him back just as much and now will be hoping that Trumbo’s power numbers were his new norm and not an outlier.

If Trumbo doesn’t knock the ball out of the park, his value wanes. He’s a below-average fielder, and he’s unlikely to provide a great batting average or on-base percentage. Baltimore bet big money that Trumbo’s power surge will continue in 2017.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Jennifer Steinbrenner Swindal, a New York Yankees general partner and the daughter of longtime team owner George Steinbrenner, stated Wednesday the family still has no plans to sell the organization.

Dan Martin of the New York Post passed along comments Swindal made during a team charitable event called “Winter Warm-up” for the elderly. She said the family’s long-term outlook hasn’t changed since her father’s death in 2010.

“We’re all in,” she said. “I hope we own the team for eternity. You never know what life will bring, but we’re in it for the long haul.”

Swindal noted her son, Steve Swindal Jr., has taken on a role in baseball operations to help set the stage for a smooth transition to the next generation. She also praised Hal Steinbrenner, her brother and the team’s principal owner, for his job handling the franchise in recent years.

“Initially, we were trying to figure out how we were all going to handle things and when my father got sick, all four of us [siblings] went to work,” she said. “Hal has been a leader and he’s been great.”

Although questions are raised about a potential sale on seemingly an annual basis, the remarks echo those made by Hal Steinbrenner last spring training. He told Wallace Matthews of ESPN.com his father would be happy with how the family has stuck together to make things work.

“This is a family business and we’re all involved,” Steinbrenner said. “We all love being a part of this. We all know our dad wanted us to be a part of us, and we all know he’s watching down on us and happy that we’re all a part of it. Believe it or not, to us, that’s a big deal. The idea is, let’s keep it going.”

A lot is made about the Yankees’ lack of marquee free-agent signings since the death of George Steinbrenner. The inclusion of a luxury tax paired with having to pay off massive contracts has forced the team to avoid those major offseason splashes for the most part, though.

Furthermore, New York ranks second in payroll average over the past three years, according to the Baseball Cube. The Bronx Bombers still rank first in that category over the past 10 and 15 years.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed optimism the front office would have more flexibility in 2018 as contracts start coming off the books, per Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media:

Well, this is my hope: First and foremost, as you see we’re transitioning from contracts that we vested heavily in and it did pay off for us in ’09 (with a World Series championship). So at the end of the day we are going to be in a position to do a number of things, and maybe we can turn the clock back to be big-game hunters that we have been accustomed to being.

The current generation of Steinbrenners have been hamstrung by the team’s financial situation after working hard to chase down the 2009 title. But the fanbase will want them to become high-end buyers once again next winter with superstar outfielder Bryce Harper among the possible free agents.    

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When it comes to opt-out clauses, the New York Yankees tend to opt in.

They aren’t always happy about it. They don’t always do it right away. But when Alex Rodriguez opted out of his deal during the 2007 World Series, the Yankees turned around and gave him a bigger contract they would come to regret.

When CC Sabathia was ready to opt out of his contract four years later, the Yankees added what amounted to two years and $50 million, another deal they wouldn‘t mind having back.

So now we come to Masahiro Tanaka. As every Yankees fan knows, he’s the closest to a sure thing they have in their 2017 rotation. And as every Yankees fan knows by now, he can opt out of his contract when the 2017 season ends.

There’s no way the Yankees can make this work in their favor. If Tanaka has a great year, he obviously opts out of the final three years and $67 million of what was originally a seven-year, $155 million contract. Then the Yankees pay him market value—more than his current $22 million a year, and more years—or someone else does.

If Tanaka has a decent year and stays healthy, he still almost certainly opts out. Or threatens to, with the Yankees extending his contract.

Or maybe Tanaka gets hurt. He made 31 starts in 2016, but he is still pitching with a slight tear in the UCL in his right elbow. It could tear further, requiring Tommy John surgery. He could suffer a different injury. Either way, he sticks with his current contract, and the Yankees are stuck paying him.

The Yankees obviously know all this. They knew it when they agreed to Tanaka‘s original contract. Three years into the deal, they were either going to pay more to keep him or he wasn‘t going to be worth what they were paying him.

There was no way that could work in their favor. But opt-outs are part of getting big contracts done—David Price and Clayton Kershaw have them too—and the only way around them is to offer even more guaranteed money.

The problem for the Yankees is they’re short on dependable starting pitching. They likely need to shop in the starting pitching market next winter even if Tanaka stays.

Behind Tanaka, they have only Sabathia (who’s old) and Michael Pineda (who’s unreliable). Both of their contracts expire after 2017 (which isn‘t necessarily a bad thing).

Behind them, the guy with the most career major league starts on the Yankees roster is Luis Severino with 22. They’re not even sure he should be a starter.

The guy with the next most career starts is Adam Warren with 21. They don’t want him to be a starting pitcher.

You get the picture, and you get why the Yankees would rather not think about Tanaka leaving.

So why not just eliminate the risk and renegotiate his contract now? Why did general manager Brian Cashman tell reporters the Yankees have no plans to do that?

Simple. Even though a new contract eliminates the risk of Tanaka‘s walking away, it adds the risk of getting stuck with an even bigger contract the Yankees don’t want.

Remember the $21 million they’re still paying A-Rod in 2017. Remember the $25 million they have committed to a 36-year-old Sabathia.

When Sabathia was ready to opt out in November 2011, he was 31 years old and had just finished fourth in the American League Cy Young Award vote. The new contract wasn‘t ideal, but Sabathia had averaged 235 innings over his first three seasons as a Yankee. He seemed like a decent risk.

Tanaka will be two years younger when he reaches his opt-out date, but he has yet to finish higher than seventh in Cy Young voting. He has yet to pitch 200 innings in a major league season (he did it in Japan). He has pitched significantly better when he gets an extra day of rest, complicating how the Yankees set up their rotation. And he has that ligament tear.

He’s not an ideal candidate for a long, expensive contract. But maybe he doesn‘t need to be. Rich Hill, who is 36 and was hurt so much that he only made 20 regular-season starts in 2016, got a three-year, $48 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Starting pitching is expensive, and it’s only getting more expensive. The Yankees know that, and so does Tanaka.

They’ll take their chances and hope he pitches well enough to lift them into contention in the American League East this year. If it costs them more money and a contract they don’t love, so be it.

They have little choice at this point.

That opt-out clause is going to work out well for him, one way or another. It won’t work out as well for the Yankees.

Opt-out clauses rarely do.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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Jose Bautista may have entered the free-agent waters thinking they would take him to a better, richer harbor. Instead, they’ve pushed him right back from where he came.

And that’s not so bad.

A move that has seemed inevitable finally came to fruition Tuesday, when Bautista re-signed with the Toronto Blue Jays on a deal that, as reported by TSN’s Steve Phillips (via MLB Network Radio), will pay him at least $18 million and perhaps as much as $60 million:

Since mutual options are rarely exercised, however, it’s likely this pact will end up costing the Blue Jays just the $18 million.

That’s only slightly more than the $17.2 million they would have paid Bautista in 2017 if he’d accepted the club’s qualifying offer in November. And to hear Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tell it, Toronto also got Bautista back for less than what was available elsewhere.

For Bautista, who’s hit an MLB-high 249 home runs since 2010, $18 million is a nice raise over the $14 million he earned each year from 2012 to 2016. So, at least there’s that.

And thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, the Blue Jays won’t get to make him another qualifying offer if he chooses to test the open market again after 2017. And since Bautista won’t be tied to draft-pick compensation, the big payday that eluded him this winter could come next winter.

Of course, draft-pick compensation was just one thing that limited Bautista’s marketability this winter.

Another was certainly the specter of decline hanging over Bautista’s head. He’s 36 years old and coming off a season in which he managed just an .817 OPS and 22 home runs—his worst marks since the days before his big breakout in 2010. He also rated well below average on defense in right field.

There may be no fixing his defense. Even when Bautista was an asset in right field, it had as much to do with his arm as anything else. He acknowledged early in 2016 that said arm was still compromised from a shoulder injury that cropped up at the end of 2015.

“It’s using it when you need to, having the history of the injury last year, on an unnecessary throw, there’s more of a conscious effort on my end to just make the necessary throw,” he told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

In an alternate universe, the Blue Jays could ignore this question mark by hiding Bautista at designated hitter. But with newcomer Kendrys Morales locked into that position, that’s not going to happen.

The bright side for Toronto is that it could afford to take a defensive hit this winter. Per Baseball Prospectus, it had the American League‘s most efficient defense in 2016. Even if the Blue Jays do take a few steps back in 2017, they could still be very good at turning batted balls into outs.

Of course, worse defense might require them to take a step forward (or at least avoid a step backward) on offense.

For that, Bautista and Morales will have to make up for what Toronto lost with the departure of Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders. Encarnacion left a hole the size of an .886 OPS and 42 home runs. Saunders left a hole the size of an .815 OPS and 24 home runs.

Morales should replace Saunders’ production, so the pressure will be on Bautista to put 2016 behind him and be more like the guy who averaged a .945 OPS and 38 homers per year from 2010 to 2015.

Guaranteed? Not quite.

As ESPN.com’s Keith Law expressed in his free-agent rankings, the real concern is that Bautista’s 2016 drop-off was a case of his age seeping into his bat and slowing it down. Per Baseball Savant, Bautista’s modest (for him, anyway) .463 slugging percentage against fastballs lends some truth to that.

But as far as offseason gambles go, there have been far dumber bets placed than this one.

While there’s no ignoring the various concerns that popped up during Bautista’s 2016 season, his core skills remained very much intact. He continued to show a fantastic eye, keeping his walk rate right where it needed to be. He also continued hitting the snot out of the ball, finishing with a career-high 41 hard-hit percentage.

Which brings us to the ZiPS projections. According to FanGraphs, Bautista will post an .868 OPS and hit 27 home runs in 2017. Not bad. And possibly conservative, to boot.

All of the above shows the Blue Jays are a better team with Bautista than they are without him. Not drastically better, but better.

If nothing else, they’re better enough to make an AL East race that didn’t look all that interesting before Tuesday look more interesting. The Boston Red Sox should still be counted among the league’s (surprisingly large) collection of clear division favorites, but now the Blue Jays have enough weapons to give them a run for their money.

Bautista and Morales alongside Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin and Devon Travis is a good lineup. A starting rotation headed by Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada must be viewed as one of the league’s best. In the bullpen, Toronto still has the criminally underrated Roberto Osuna.

Bautista could well be playing in his third postseason with the Blue Jays come October. Once there, he’s shown he knows what to do.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

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Jose Bautista‘s search for a contract has come to an end after he agreed to a deal that will keep him with the Toronto Blue Jays; the team made the announcement Wednesday:

Baseball Prospectus Toronto first reported Bautista’s agreement with the Blue Jays on Tuesday, noting the deal includes various incentives and a mutual option. 

On Tuesday, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported Bautista will earn $18 million with a one-year guarantee and that options in the contract could extend it to $60 million for three years. Heyman noted the salary is higher than the $17.2 million he would have received if he accepted Toronto’s qualifying offer in November.

Richard Justice of MLB.com reported Bautista and the Blue Jays confirmed the contract numbers, and the deal includes a mutual option worth $17 million in 2018 and a vesting option worth $20 million in 2019.

After having a journeyman run early in his career, Bautista turned into a superstar with the Blue Jays in 2010 when he hit 54 home runs and finished fourth in American League MVP voting. He subsequently finished in the top 10 of MVP voting three times in the next five years.

It appeared the marriage between Bautista and the Blue Jays was coming to an end when his contract expired after the 2016 season.

The Blue Jays jumped on free agents Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, who has the versatility to play at first base or in the outfield. That eagerness led to the departure of Edwin Encarnacion.

Bautista kept twisting in the wind because it wasn’t clear where his market started. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported Sunday the Baltimore Orioles had been in contact with the six-time All-Star.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Saturday the Cleveland Indians, who signed Encarnacion earlier this offseason, were keeping in touch with Bautista if his price fell to a certain undisclosed point.

Instead, as the Blue Jays faced the possibility of going into a season with Ezequiel Carrera as their starting right fielder, the front office decided the best course of action would be to bring Bautista back.

Under most circumstances, a player with Bautista’s resume would warrant a large extension without hesitation, but he turned 36 in October, and his numbers declined in 2016 for the second consecutive year.

The Blue Jays did have a change in the front office last offseason when Mark Shapiro officially took over as team president in October after previously working with the Indians.

Ross Atkins became Toronto’s general manager when Alex Anthopoulos left the organization after being unable to reach a contract extension despite leading the team to its first postseason in 22 years in 2015.

Shapiro came from a situation in Cleveland that required him to be diligent in free agency because the Indians couldn’t compete with teams for big contracts, minus their open wallet for Encarnacion this winter. It did lead to an exodus of talent, though it also helped him avoid giving out some of the long-term deals that have backfired on other teams in the past.

By waiting out Bautista’s market, Shapiro played the market into his favor since the veteran outfielder was coming off a down year in 2016. The Blue Jays didn’t have to overextend themselves on a long-term deal for a player in his late 30s, while Bautista gets to stay in a place he’s comfortable.

After Bautista turned his career around in Toronto, it’s fitting he will have at least one more year with a team capable of competing for a playoff spot in the American League. He’s been the face of the franchise for years and will have more time to bring a championship to the city.

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Former MLB star Alex Rodriguez is set to host a CNBC reality show, Back in the Game, according to Alex Weprin of Politico.

On the show—which includes former NFL player Michael Strahan as an executive producer—ex-athletes in dire financial straits will be paired with “money-savvy mentors who can help them get back on their feet.” These advisors may help the athletes launch a second career or pursue a new business opportunity.

Finances likely won’t ever be an issue for Rodriguez, who signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers in 2000, though he opted out of that agreement in 2007 to sign a 10-year, $275 million contract with the New York Yankees that year. 

And the money is still coming in from that Rangers deal, per SI.com:

Although the Yankees will not be responsible for his checks after 2017, he will still be getting paid by the Rangers. At the time he was traded, he was to receive $36 million in deferred money from that record deal. That was converted to an assignment bonus, which has racked up two percent in interest every year. He will continue to get paid by the Rangers until June 15, 2025.

The Yankees are also on the hook for the $21 million Rodriguez is owed on the final year of his deal with the team.

Rodriguez, 41, had one of the most polarizing careers in MLB history. He was an electrifying talent and hit 696 career home runs in his career, fourth in MLB history, but he also was suspended for the entirety of the 2014 season after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. He also admitted to using PEDs in 2009.

In his post-baseball career, Rodriguez has shown a natural knack for television and was a big hit on Fox’s postseason coverage. Ben Reiter of SI.com noted: “The hyper-prepared Rodriguez has exhibited his singular baseball mind by providing analysis that is both nuanced and well formulated.”

While Rodriguez won’t be breaking down baseball games for CNBC, it’s become clear he has a future in television.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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When the Boston Red Sox report for spring training, they’ll officially embark on a 2017 season that they hope will result in their fourth World Series title since 2004.

Oh, by the way, the magic date is February 13.

That’s when Red Sox pitchers and catchers are due to report to Fort Myers, Florida. Position players will report three days later. After that, all sorts of stretching, working out, assorted high jinks and, yes, even a few games here and there will ensue.

There’s no telling what will happen. But at the least, we can preview it and offer a few predictions. 

The Big Newcomers

With most of last year’s AL East-winning roster due to return, the Red Sox didn‘t have many items on their offseason shopping list. So they went for quality instead, with the catches o’ the winter being…

Chris Sale, LHP

The earth shook and thunder clapped in early December. That was from the Red Sox acquiring Chris Sale in a blockbuster trade with the Chicago White Sox.

Sure, they had to give up a four-prospect package highlighted by Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada and 105 mph man Michael Kopech. But in Sale, the Red Sox got back one of the league’s very best starting pitchers.

Since 2012, the 27-year-old left-hander has racked up a 3.04 ERA and more wins above replacement than all starters not named Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. Even in a 2016 season in which his velocity and strikeout rate took hits, Sale still dominated with a 3.34 ERA in 226.2 innings.

With him joining Cy Young winners Rick Porcello and David Price in Boston’s starting rotation, Red Sox manager John Farrell is about to get his first sense of what it’ll be like to be able to breathe easy three out of every five days.

Mitch Moreland, 1B

David Ortiz’s retirement created a need for a left-handed hitter with power. The Red Sox made Mitch Moreland the answer with a one-year, $5.5 million contract.

The 31-year-old will match neither the 1.021 OPS nor the 38 home runs that Ortiz gave the Red Sox in his 2016 swan song. But with good numbers to the opposite field, Moreland could at least be better than expected at Fenway Park. And fresh off his first Gold Glove win, he’ll certainly be an upgrade at first base over Hanley Ramirez.

Tyler Thornburg, RHP

The Red Sox had to give up Travis Shaw and well-regarded prospect Mauricio Dubon to pry Tyler Thornburg from the Milwaukee Brewers. Not cheap, but also not bad relative to the absurd prices paid to relievers on the open market.

Thornburg, 28, may not be elite, but he at least arrives in Boston as an overlooked gem. He put up a 2.15 ERA and struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings last season. Alongside the flame-throwing Joe Kelly, Thornburg profiles as a capable setup man for Craig Kimbrel.

The Big Storylines

When the Red Sox aren’t gawking at their big new additions this spring, they’ll be tending to other matters. Those include…

Life After Big Papi

For the first time since 2002, Big Papi will be nowhere to be found at Red Sox camp. He’ll be busy enjoying his retirement—apparently by pursuing a new career as the Happy Gilmore of tennis.

There’s now a noticeable void in Boston’s offense, but it could be worse. The Red Sox had the No. 1 offense in baseball last year, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney thinks they still have the league’s top lineup. Ramirez, Moreland, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts surely would agree. Farrell would as well, for that matter.

Of course, Ortiz also left a leadership void. But a guy who would know isn’t too concerned about that.

“We’re in good shape,” Pedroia told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. “I think, especially what David did leadership-wise with a ton of guys, he’s leaving us in good shape. We’ll be all right.”

Pablo Sandoval Back at Third Base

Now, this. This is a real question.

The Red Sox basically got nothing from Pablo Sandoval in his first year in Boston in 2015, as he put up a .658 OPS and struggled defensively. They then got absolutely nothing from him in 2016, in which he played in just three games before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.

But with Shaw and Moncada out of the picture, the Red Sox don’t have much choice but to entrust the hot corner to Sandoval. This will be the baseball equivalent to trusting Keith Moon with a Holiday Inn hotel room.

The good news is that Sandoval has given every indication that he’s in good shape for the first time since signing his $95 million contract.

The bad news? Well, see above.

David Price Has a Score to Settle

As Sandoval looks to get his old job back, Price will be looking to get his groove back.

The veteran lefty didn‘t look like his usual ace self in the first season of his seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox. Although he pitched 230 innings, he put up just a 3.99 ERA and allowed a career-high 30 home runs.

“Last year was the first time in my career I didn’t have fun when I was on the field,” Price told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “When I’m pitching well, I’m smiling. There wasn’t a lot of smiling.”

Within that same interview, the 31-year-old also vowed to prove he can be successful in Boston. That process will start this spring. After that, anything goes.

Who’s Behind the Plate?

Ah, yes, but who will Price be throwing to? Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart will vie for playing time behind the plate, and it sounds like each one of them has a shot at earning the starting gig.

“You’ve got three guys that can battle for an everyday job,” Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Mastrodonato. “If you said right now who’s the leading guy, it’s Sandy Leon.”

After posting an .845 OPS in 2016, Leon can claim to have the bat. Vazquez can claim to have the glove and the arm. Swihart, a former top prospect, has a shot at the best of both worlds.

In short: This could be a fun competition.

Who’s at the Back of the Rotation?

As good as the front three of the Red Sox’s rotation looks, don’t underestimate the back end. Fighting for the last two spots will be two 2016 All-Stars (Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz) and a former top prospect (Eduardo Rodriguez).

Dombrowski indicated in a chat with Olney that it’s the two All-Stars who have the upper hand. That’s fair. Although both ran out of gas at the end of 2016, Wright (3.33 ERA in 156.2 IP) and Pomeranz (3.32 ERA in 170.2 IP) both had successful seasons on the whole.

Don’t sleep on Rodriguez, though. The lefty was quite good as a rookie in 2015. And after a slow start, he got back to being quite good with a 3.24 ERA in his final 14 starts of 2016.

Prospects to Watch

Alex Speier presented his list of the Red Sox’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America very early in the offseason. Four of them were subsequently traded, which complicates this segment of the program.

Not to worry, though. The Red Sox still have…

Andrew Benintendi, LF

Andrew Benintendi found himself in the majors just a year after he was drafted by the Red Sox with the No. 7 pick in the 2015 draft. And man, did he impress.

In 34 games, Benintendi hit .295 with an .835 OPS. He also showed well in left field, where he made one of the best catches of the season in Tampa Bay:

Technically, Benintendi is indeed still a prospect. And a very well liked one, at that. When Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com polled executives about the game’s best hitting prospect, Benintendi was the winner.

The 22-year-old won’t qualify as a prospect for much longer. The Red Sox’s everyday left field job is his to lose, and it would be quite the upset if he lost it.

Sam Travis, 1B

Although the Red Sox are short on MLB-ready prospects after Benintendi, Sam Travis is one to keep an eye on.

A second-round draft pick in 2014, Travis is now a .303 hitter with a .364 on-base percentage in the minors. Although his power is less impressive, those numbers reflect a legit hit tool.

With Moreland and Ramirez ahead of Travis on the depth chart, regular playing time should come later rather than sooner for the 23-year-old. But if nothing else, he has a chance this spring to make an impression the Red Sox will remember if a roster spot opens up this season.

Dark Horses to Watch

The Red Sox are heading into spring training with few roster spots up for grabs. That’s not the best environment for dark horses to steal the spotlight, but a few guys to watch are…

Rusney Castillo, OF

Remember Rusney Castillo? Let me refresh your memory: He’s the guy who’s crashed and burned since signing a $72.5 million contract in 2014.

Yeah, that guy. Because Castillo has struggled mightily and is now off the 40-man roster, he’s a long shot to break camp with the Red Sox.

But maybe not as long a shot as everyone thinks. The 29-year-old was last seen hitting .392 in the Puerto Rican winter league. In speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, former Red Sox infielder Alex Cora chalked this up to changes that have occurred for Castillo both on and off the field.

So…maybe? Maybe.

Blake Swihart, C

Although Swihart will be in the mix for playing time behind the plate this spring, he’s a dark horse because he has one thing Leon and Vazquez don’t: options.

Beyond that, Swihart also has some development left to tackle after getting set back in 2016. The Red Sox’s decision to move him to the outfield was questionable to begin with, and even more so after he suffered a season-ending ankle injury.

But don’t count Swihart out. His two-way talent made him an elite prospect as recently as 2015, and he’s still only 24. With a good spring, he might upset established order in Boston’s catching depth chart.

Deven Marrero, INF

With only Josh Rutledge penciled in alongside Brock Holt, the Red Sox also have a backup infielder job that could be attainable this spring.

Deven Marrero would seem to have the best chance of stealing it. Although the 26-year-old has failed to live up to being picked in the first round in 2012, he’s still a right-handed hitting infielder with versatility. With a hot spring, he could begin to look like a right-handed hitting infielder with versatility and some upside.

Robby Scott, LHP

The Red Sox bullpen mostly looks set. But given how badly he struggled in Boston down the stretch in 2016, Fernando Abad, it’s fair to speculate, is on thin ice as the club’s go-to lefty specialist.

As such, keep an eye on Robby Scott. The 27-year-old put up a 2.54 ERA at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2016 before breaking through with seven scoreless appearances for the big club at the end of the year. If Scott keeps it up this spring, he may be able to steal Abad‘s role.

A Few Bold Predictions

Let’s quit the previewing and end with some predictions of the bold variety…

Chris Sale Will Have a Lousy Spring, Prompting Panic

After the price they paid to acquire Sale, I can only imagine the amount of handwringing that will be going on if he has a rough spring.

I’m also guessing I won’t have to imagine it. Dominating in spring training generally isn’t Sale’s thing, after all. Per MLB.com, his career ERA in the spring is just 4.20, and he’s struck out just 87 batters in 96.2 innings.

Will it mean anything when Sale has another lousy spring? Not at all. The freak-out will be real, though.

The Sandoval Question Won’t Be Answered

The Red Sox’s Sandoval experiment is an unnecessary risk that’s short on assurances that it will be successful. So, I’m going to treat it as such.

It’s great that Sandoval is looking good, but nobody has any idea how comfortable he’s going to be in his new body on the field. It’s also unknown if he’ll be feeling any ill effects from last year’s surgery.

Otherwise, it’s just hard to have confidence in a guy who hasn’t seen major league pitching in 10 months and who hasn’t really hit major league pitching in over two years.

Since Shaw is no longer around to pick up the baton, I imagine the Red Sox will break camp with Sandoval at third base regardless. His leash, however, will be extremely short.

Other Than That, Things Will Be Fine

Careful not to burn yourself on this hot take, man.

In all seriousness, the Red Sox simply don’t invite many bold predictions about this, that and the other thing. They have a deep, star-studded roster with a perfect mix of youthful and veteran talent, and it’s all overseen by a front office and manager who have had the reins for a while now.

No alarms. No surprises. It’s the best spring training experience a team can hope for.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

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Pitchers and catchers with a predilection for pre-planning (say that five times fast) have already begun packing their bags for Florida and Arizona. Spring training is almost here, people, and not a moment too soon.

As we prepare for the glory of fresh-cut grass and exhibition baseball, let’s zoom a lens on the New York Yankees.

The Yanks, as you’re no doubt aware, are in the midst of a youth movement and will balance their budding rebuild with an annual mandate to compete. 

New York’s camp will feature a handful of intriguing position battles, a rising star behind the dish looking to avoid a sophomore slump and talented youngsters hoping to break through all over the roster.

Stretch out those hammies, do a little long toss and proceed when ready.

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The Tampa Bay Rays took steps to stockpile talent in their farm system starting next season by trading starting pitcher Drew Smyly to the Seattle Mariners. 

Per the Rays’ official Twitter account, they received outfielder Mallex Smith and minor leaguers Carlos Vargas and Ryan Yarbrough to send Smyly to Seattle. 

Smith made his major league debut last season with the Atlanta Braves. He hit .238/.316/.365 in 72 games and was a terrific defender with seven runs saved between left field and center field in 451 innings, per FanGraphs.

Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld noted similarities between Smith and one of his now-former teammates with the Braves:

Vargas and Yarbrough are still working their way through the minors, with the latter being closer to the big leagues and the more highly regarded prospect. 

Yarbrough is a 25-year-old left-handed pitcher who spent last season at Double-A. He posted a 2.95 ERA with 99 strikeouts and 31 walks in 128.1 innings. 

Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, Yarbrough was going to rank No. 12 on the Mariners’ prospect list due to be released in the coming weeks. 

Per MLB.com, Yarbrough will rank as Tampa Bay’s No. 16 prospect with this evaluation:

Yarbrough has thrown harder as a professional than he did in college, as he’ll sit at 91-93 and occasionally bump the mid-90s, all while throwing strikes and working on a downhill plane. His changeup is his best secondary offering, thrown with excellent deception from his three-quarters delivery, and it complements his action on his fastball. The left-hander’s breaking ball is slurvy and tends to linger up in the zone, though he still has the ability to throw it for a strike. He has outstanding command and generates a good amount of ground-ball outs.

One potential hang-up for Yarbrough as a starter in the big leagues is health. Last season marked the first time since he was drafted in 2014 that he broke the 100-inning barrier. He hasn’t had any major injuries to this point, despite missing time in 2015 with a groin injury. 

Vargas is a wild card in this equation for the Rays. He’s a 17-year-old shortstop who played 62 games in the Dominican Summer League last season and posted a .242/.344/.391 slash line in 215 at-bats. 

The Rays noted Baseball America ranked Vargas as the No. 19 international prospect two years ago, with MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez offering this scouting report at the time of his signing in 2015:

Scouts like Vargas’ raw power along with his projectable body, and there’s a belief that he will hit for power in the future.

On defense, the teenager could be athletic enough to stay at shortstop as he matures, but he could also end up at third base because of his size. He could also end up in the outfield.

Because Vargas is so young and has yet to play in a full-season league, his potential value to the Rays in this deal likely won’t be known for at least another four years. There is upside in his bat, as he fills out his 6’3″, 170-pound frame that makes him a worthy gamble. 

Even though Smyly was still under team control through 2018, the Rays were able to seize an opportunity now by dealing him with two years of arbitration left. They dealt from an area of depth with Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell and Alex Cobb plugged into the rotation. 

In doing so, the Rays got an outfielder in Smith who can help them right away and has six years of team control remaining. Yarbrough could contribute out of the rotation or bullpen as soon as this season, and Vargas could end up as a power-hitting corner infielder. 

It’s not a bad return for a team that always has to be mindful of finances and keep the farm system stocked with talent to compete in the American League East.

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