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It took exactly 162 games to get here, but the matchup for the 2015 American League Wild Card Game is set. The Houston Astros will visit the New York Yankees for a do-or-die showdown on Tuesday (8:05 p.m. ET on ESPN) with a trip to the division series on the line.

The Yankees (87-75) haven’t been to the playoffs since 2012, while the Astros (86-76) last went to the dance in 2005. 

Houston won the season series against New York 4-3, splitting a four-game set at Minute Maid Park in its first meeting (June 25-28) and taking two of three at Yankee Stadium (Aug. 24-26).

The most obvious disparity between the two clubs is the depth of their pockets. The Yankees’ payroll tops out at $218.9 million, per Spotrac.com, dwarfing the Astros’ $81.2 million budget. To put an even finer point on it: New York spends almost as much on pitching ($71.3 million) as the ‘Stros do on their entire roster.

Speaking of pitching, the Astros will send left-handed ace and AL Cy Young Award contender Dallas Keuchel to the hill, while the Yankees will counter with their No. 1, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, meaning an old-fashioned pitchers’ duel is a distinct possibility.

Which squad will emerge victorious from this winner-take-all battle and advance to the ALDS?

While we await the game—and a definitive answer—let’s break down the variables and matchups and arrive at an educated guess.

You may proceed when ready.

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Despite coming up short for the best record in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays enter baseball’s postseason this week atop the odds to win the AL pennant and the World Series at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

The Blue Jays are pegged as +145 favorites on the odds to win the AL pennant after ending up 93-69 on the season, two games behind the Kansas City Royals in the overall Junior Circuit standings. Toronto will open an American League Division Series matchup at home against the Texas Rangers on Thursday.

The Royals, meanwhile, will begin their postseason run against the winner of the AL Wild Card Game between the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros on Thursday. The Royals are set at +200 on the odds to win the AL pennant, with the Rangers at +550 and both the Yankees and the Astros at +700. New York will play host to Houston in the AL Wild Card matchup on Tuesday night.

Over in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals led the circuit with a 100-62 record, and they’re the +210 favorite on the odds to win the NL Pennant. The Cardinals will be up against the winner of the NL Wild Card Game in the National League Division Series, with that matchup on Wednesday night in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and the Cubs.

The Cubs and Pirates both head into the Wild Card Game at +500 on the updated odds to win the NL pennant, with the Los Angeles Dodgers at +290 and the New York Mets at +325. Game 1 between the Dodgers and the Mets takes place at Dodger Stadium on Friday.

On the World Series odds, the Blue Jays are the +300 favorites, followed by the Royals and Cardinals at +500, the Dodgers at +600 and the Mets at +700. The Cubs sit at +1000 on the odds to win the World Series, with the Pirates at +1100, the Rangers at +1200, and both the Yankees and the Astros at +1400.

New York will send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound on Tuesday night against Houston’s Dallas Keuchel, with the Astros slight -109 road favorites over the +104 Yankees. On Wednesday, the Cubs are sitting as -128 road favorites against the +123 home underdog Pirates, with Chicago’s Jake Arrieta set to match up against Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole.

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The Toronto Blue Jays were feeling themselves after clinching their first American League East title in 22 years Wednesday, and Kevin Pillar must have been feeling himself just the same Friday night.

The center fielder chased down Tampa Bay Rays catcher Luke Maile’s fly ball in the seventh inning, stretching out to make an incredible catch mid-dive.

Here it is again as a GIF, just to help you appreciate it even more:

The Blue Jays won 8-4.

[MLB]

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Alex Rodriguez said they were underdogs, and for once we didn’t laugh at the thought.

The New York Yankees as underdogs?

It’s a crazy concept, given their $200 million-plus payroll and their history. It’s fair to say the Yankees never should be underdogs to make the playoffs, but it’s just as fair to say that this year they were.

And it’s even fairer to say they’re bigger underdogs now that they’re in.

Seriously, is anyone picking this club to win the World Series? Has any Yankee team in recent memory entered a postseason with lower expectations?

Oh, they could be favorites in Tuesday’s American League Wild Card Game, especially if the Minnesota Twins can somehow emerge with the AL’s other wild-card spot.

But after that?

Maybe we’re all wrong, the same way we were all wrong in March and April. I went through every preseason prediction I could find, from Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller (he picked them last in the AL East) to 15 writers and broadcasters at ESPN to five guys at CBSSports.com to 12 at FoxSports.com to five at Yahoo Sports to seven at USA Today.

All those people making picks, and just two of them (Gabe Lacques of USA Today and Buster Olney of ESPN) had the Yankees in the playoffs.

I didn’t make picks this spring, but I won’t lie. I wouldn’t have picked them, either. And I’m not picking them now.

The Yankees don’t get the benefit of the doubt they once did, because they aren’t the same team they once were. It’s been three years since New York even made the playoffs, and the roster has turned over so much that only three guys who were active for the club’s last postseason series in 2012 will be active this October (Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Brett Gardner).

This is the first Yankee playoff team in 20 years with no Derek Jeter, and the first time the Yankees have gone to the playoffs since Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte retired (although Rivera was hurt in 2012 and didn’t pitch). This is a team whose playoff experience almost entirely was earned elsewhere, in Boston (Jacoby Ellsbury, Andrew Miller) or in Atlanta (Brian McCann) or even in Japan (Masahiro Tanaka).

They do have Carlos Beltran, who has had plenty of October success in multiple places, and if they’re going to surprise us this month, perhaps it will be because of what he does. They wouldn’t have gotten this far without what he has already done.

Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira got far more credit as comeback veterans, but Jack Curry said on YES that after an awful April, Beltran has been the Yankees’ best player. There’s little doubt he’s been their most important hitter in the second half, and it seemed totally appropriate when Beltran’s home run gave the Yankees their first lead in Thursday night’s playoff-clinching 4-1 win over the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.

“He has a knack for big hits,” Chase Headley told YES’ Meredith Marakovits. “Obviously he turns it up in the big games, and he did again [in September]. We’re hoping he keeps it up for the next month or so.”

They’re hoping Beltran keeps hitting. They’re hoping Tanaka can look like an ace, Sabathia’s September revival is real and the bullpen can put them over the top. Manager Joe Girardi still won’t commit to having Adam Warren in the pen full time in October, but how can he not? Girardi has no one he trusts after the big three of Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson, and Warren’s three shutout innings of relief Thursday night showed what an addition he would be to that group.

Yes, you can make a case for this team (though few will). You can point out how wild-card teams have won before (two of them met in the World Series last year).

But whatever case you make for the Yankees, it’s the same one you’d make for any underdog. Could they win? Of course, because in October, any team that gets there could win.

Will anyone pick them to win?

Probably no more than picked them in April.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball. 

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Following a two-year postseason absence, the New York Yankees guaranteed they’ll be playing playoff baseball in October again thanks to a 4-1 win over the Boston Red Sox on Thursday. The victory was also the 10,000th in franchise history.

According to the New York Times‘ Tyler Kepner, the game’s final out was also historic:

With the wild-card berth, New York has now made 23 more postseason appearances than any other team in MLB history, per ESPN Stats & Info:

The Yankees’ official Twitter account celebrated the evening’s other big milestone: 

Following the on-field celebration, the Yankees took to the clubhouse to pop champagne, per Baseball Tonight:

Shortstop Didi Gregorius posted a video of the festivities: 

While the Yankees got off to a modest 26-25 start, they hit their stride during the dog days of summer. After going 15-12 in June, New York walloped the competition to the tune of a 17-7 mark in July. During that stretch, the Yankees batted a season-best .275 with a collective .344 on-base percentage while ascending to the top of the American League East.

A 14-14 August that coincided with the Toronto Blue Jays‘ 21-6 post-trade-deadline explosion brought the men in pinstripes down a peg, but they stayed competitive and banged down the postseason barrier. 

Buoyed by stellar power, New York has been one of baseball’s elite teams when it comes to pushing runs across the plate.

Back from a season-long performance-enhancing-drug suspension, Alex Rodriguez assumed vintage form and provided a jolt by crushing more than 30 home runs for the first time since 2010. In July, A-Rod spoke to Sports Illustrated‘s Tom Verducci about his comeback:

One thing I’ve been this year is consistent. Even in my really good years, I’d have some periods—two, three weeks—where I just looked terrible. It was always because of tension, trying too hard. Now I’m just happy and relaxed. I’ve been more consistent because of that.

Mark Teixeira also boosted the Yankees’ offerings at the plate before a right shin fracture ended his season early. In 111 games, Teixeira batted .255 with 31 home runs—his most since 2011. However, the Yankees were able to plug Greg Bird into the lineup and receive more than 40 dingers combined from their starting first basemen.

Coupled with Carlos Beltran’s improved production during his second season in pinstripes, the team evolved into an offensive powerhouse.

Entering the postseason, the Yankees’ primary concern will be their ability to keep the runs flowing while finding sources of consistency on the mound. Manager Joe Girardi’s club ranks around the league average in ERA, and shaky, injury-riddled seasons from CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka have left the team without a true starting ace.

Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi started to look like a workhorse after the All-Star break, but elbow inflammation cut his regular season short. Now the Yankees hope the 25-year-old can return in time to offer stability in some capacity.

And even if question marks abound, the Yankees and their fans can celebrate a return to the postseason as they prep for a wild-card showdown next Tuesday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).

A trip back to the American League Championship Series may fall on the optimistic end of the spectrum, but with a power-packed lineup that can put up runs in a hurry, New York has the raw talent to pull off a stunner.

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NEW YORK — Masahiro Tanaka made it through the regular season without needing Tommy John surgery, so that’s something. He made it through his final regular-season start with his hamstring intact—another positive.

“I feel good about him,” New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Wednesday night, suggesting but not yet announcing that Tanaka will be his starter in next week’s American League Wild Card Game (because the Yankees still haven’t clinched their spot).

He should feel good, but the manager of a team with a $200-plus million payroll really ought to have a guy he feels great about when he’s faced with one game he absolutely has to win. Someone like Jake Arrieta or Gerrit Cole—the two guys who figure to start the National League Wild Card Game—or Dallas Keuchel, the guy who would start against Tanaka at Yankee Stadium if the Houston Astros make it to the AL game.

Tanaka was that guy for three months last year, before he got hurt. He’s not that guy now.

He can be very good. Don’t forget he allowed just three runs in 22 innings in three late-season starts versus the Toronto Blue Jays or that his August-September ERA was 2.79 before Wednesday.

He’s still the best choice the Yankees have to start a must-win game. He just doesn’t feel as automatic as you’d like in a game you can’t afford to lose.

“Vanilla” was the way one scout in attendance put it Wednesday, when Tanaka allowed a three-run first-inning home run to Boston’s Travis Shaw and ended up giving up four runs in five innings of the Yankees’ 9-5, 11-inning loss to the Red Sox.

“Not a disaster, certainly adequate,” the scout said. “But he was a pitchability/contact guy with no plus pitches tonight.”

Girardi and Tanaka could easily dismiss Wednesday’s results because of an 11-day layoff caused by Tanaka’s hamstring strain. He was rusty, he didn’t have his good split-finger fastball (he hung the one that Shaw blasted for a home run), and a normal schedule between now and Tuesday will help.

“I think it was a good sign I was able to come out of this game strong,” Tanaka said through his interpreter. “[The problems with the split] may have had something to do with the layoff. I think it’ll be better next time.”

The Yankees could have clinched their playoff spot with a win Wednesday, but they lost to the Red Sox for a third straight night. With Mark Teixeira out for the year and with Alex Rodriguez and others starting to look worn down (although A-Rod homered Wednesday), the Yankees aren’t the offensive powerhouse they were earlier in the season.

They’ll need big performances from some of their starting pitchers, and there’s every chance they’ll need a big performance from Tanaka next Tuesday.

“I don’t know if it would be the biggest game I’ve pitched,” said Tanaka, who once threw 160 pitches in a Japan Series Game 6 and came back the next day to save Game 7. “Absolutely, it’ll be a big game.”

Tanaka has a big-game attitude, a toughness that is especially evident on nights like Wednesday, when he is forced to battle. Even with diminished stuff, he’s a safer choice for the Wild Card Game than rookie Luis Severino, who looks like a future ace but has started just 10 major league games. He’s a safer choice than CC Sabathia, who has the same toughness but even more diminished stuff.

Tanaka’s fastball averaged 92.1 mph Wednesday, according to BrooksBaseball.net. While that’s not far off from where it has been for much of this season, it’s a tick down from where he was in his exciting first month with the Yankees.

Since then, of course, Tanaka has had to deal with a partially torn ligament in his right elbow. He has proven that it was a good choice to put off Tommy John surgery and that he can be a successful pitcher with what he takes to the mound now.

“We’ve been very pleased with the way he’s thrown the ball,” Girardi said Wednesday afternoon. “I think he’s had a very good second year.”

He ends the regular season with a 12-7 record and a 3.51 ERA, and the other numbers aren’t bad, either.

He’s a very good pitcher, but in a game you have to win, you’d rather count on a great pitcher.

Can the Yankees depend on him? Next week, they’ll have little choice.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball. 

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The last time the Toronto Blue Jays tasted the postseason, Bill Clinton was a first-year resident in the White House. The Wesley Snipes-Sylvester Stallone vehicle Demolition Man was No. 1 at the box office. And Tag Team’s “Whoomp! (There It Is)” was climbing the charts.

The point is it was a long time ago. Twenty-two years, to be exact, all the way back in 1993. (Feeling old?) Now, more than two decades later, the Jays have another date with playoff destiny—and a chance to make another memorable run.

That 1993 squad, of course, won the World Series, the franchise’s second in as many seasons. And while the 2015 edition is 11 huge wins away from that lofty goal, it’s got the talent to get there.

After securing a playoff spot on Sept. 25 via a scheduling quirk, Toronto nailed down the American League East crown in emphatic fashion on Wednesday, pounding the Baltimore Orioles, 15-2.

It was a fitting exclamation point for the Jays, who have bashed baseballs with extreme prejudice all season.

Toronto is MLB‘s highest-scoring club and paces the next closest team, the New York Yankees, by more than 100 runs. The Blue Jays also lead the pack in slugging percentage, on-base percentage, home runs, total bases and, well, you get the picture. 

There is, simply put, zero debate when it comes to the best-hitting team in baseball.

Third baseman and AL MVP candidate Josh Donaldson, acquired from the Oakland A’s over the winter, leads the offensive charge, but he’s got plenty of backup. Jose Bautista has continued his thumping ways and joins Donaldson to form the AL’s only 40-homer tandem.

Edwin Encarnacion is close behind with 37 big flies. At the top of the lineup, Ben Revere has hit .313 with a .352 OBP since coming over in a deadline trade with the Philadelphia Phillies. Kevin Pillar, a defensive whiz in center field, is hitting .275 with 25 stolen bases. All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, another deadline acquisition, is expected back before the postseason.

And on it goes. There are few, if any, holes in this Jays lineup, no place for opposing pitchers to pause and catch their breath.

Speaking of pitching, the Jays lead with stud southpaw David Price, yet another trade pickup. But the incredible re-emergence of young right-hander Marcus Stroman has further transformed Toronto’s rotation.

In four starts since returning from a devastating ACL injury suffered in spring training, the 24-year-old Stroman is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Add Marco Estrada, and the Blue Jays have what ESPN’s David Schoenfield correctly called “the best trio of starters in the AL.” And they’re handled by Russell Martin, a seasoned field general behind the dish who made trips to the playoffs in each of the past two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

The Blue Jays bullpen is also much improved and now sports the fifth-best ERA in the Junior Circuit. Rookie closer Roberto Osuna, who won’t reach the legal drinking age until February and is pitching his first season above Single-A, will be tested in the playoff crucible. But overall, this is a unit capable of holding the leads the offense is sure to provide.

The American League is filled with flawed contenders. The Kansas City Royals have question marks in their rotation and, with the loss of closer Greg Holland, in their once-vaunted bullpen. The aging New York Yankees are held together with glue and a prayer. And the gaggle of hopefuls in the AL West appear intent on cannibalizing each other.

The Blue Jays, by contrast, are something approaching a squad without weakness and a legitimate juggernaut, as ESPN’s Buster Olney outlined:

They still have to prove it in the playoffs, of course, where supposedly unbeatable teams frequently fizzle. Perhaps the pressure of a franchise and fanbase that have waited so long for meaningful autumn baseball and another crack at the Commissioner’s Trophy will prove too much.

Speaking of pressure: The Blue Jays’ window might not stay open for long. Price will be a free agent after the season and is sure to incite a bidding war among deep-pocketed suitors that could push him out of Toronto’s range. And several key offensive contributors, including Encarnacion and Bautista, are well into their 30s. 

It’s win-now time north of the border, in other words. Fortunately for the Jays faithful, this club is constructed to do exactly that.

“This team we have, I can’t put it into words, but we’re a motivated, hungry group and we’re not settling,” Stroman told reporters after throwing eight innings of one-run ball in the clincher on Wednesday. “We’ve definitely got our eyes set on bigger and better things.”

It’s been a long time coming, Toronto. Buckle up and enjoy your flight. 

All statistics current as of Sept. 30 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Twenty-two years after the Toronto Blue Jays captured a division title en route to winning the World Series, the franchise took a momentous step toward replicating the feat with a 15-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Toronto’s margin of victory was the third largest ever in a division clincher as it secured an AL East title for the first time since 1993. 

The Blue Jays cruised thanks to a lights-out performance from Marcus Stroman on the mound, as the right-handed ace notched his fourth win of the season by striking out eight and allowing just five hits over eight innings. 

“You’re on the road, but it felt like a home game,” Stroman said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). “I thought the majority of the stadium was Blue Jays fans. So that just goes to show how excited people are to take the trip down from the North to see us clinch. It’s been special.”

Stroman tweeted out a statement to Blue Jays fans following the team’s afternoon triumph: 

Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star passed along video of Josh Donaldson soaking things up after Toronto dropped the second half of Wednesday’s day-night doubleheader, 8-1: 

Blue Jays great Carlos Delgado joined the celebration and sent his former team a congratulatory message after it snapped a drought that spanned more than two decades:

Major League Baseball followed up with a scene from Baltimore that summed up the feelings of long-suffering Toronto supporters:

Beyond the historic implications of Toronto’s division title, the way the Blue Jays rebounded following early-season struggles was truly remarkable.

As ESPN Stats & Info noted, Toronto started the season 45-46 before going on a 47-19 tear that was facilitated by trade-deadline acquisitions of Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, Ben Revere, Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins, who recorded the final out of the division-clincher.  

“It still feels like a dream, to be honest with you,” Stroman said, per the Canadian Press (via Sportsnet.ca). “How everything played out from the beginning of this season and being in this position to help my team clinch, it’s been a journey, it’s been a special ride. I’m just thankful for everybody who helped me get to this point.” 

Now that they’ve secured the division title following an improbable run, the Blue Jays can focus their attention on squashing American League competition as they try to capture the franchise’s first World Series berth since 1993. 

And given the rate at which manager John Gibbons’ club has torched opponents over the past two months, Toronto should be considered the favorite to emerge from the postseason with an AL pennant in tow. 

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Boston Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart hit a pair of home runs in Wednesday’s 10-4 win over the New York Yankees, becoming the first Red Sox rookie since Jason Varitek (a fellow catcher) in 1998 to hit multiple homers in a game at Yankee Stadium, per Sportsnet Stats.

Swihart started his big night in the first inning, hitting a three-run home run to right field off of Yankees pitcher Michael Pineda to cap off Boston’s six-run outburst in the opening frame.

Then, with the score sitting at 7-4 in the eighth inning, Swihart smacked a two-run home run to right-center field off of Yankees reliever Bryan Mitchell, pushing Boston’s lead to 9-4.

The excellent performance boosted Swihart‘s batting line to .272/.319/.394, which is right around the league average for the typical player, but it’s excellent for a rookie catcher.

Although he has only five home runs in 300 plate appearances, the 23-year-old Swihart has been worth 1.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to Fangraphs‘ measurement of the statistic.

Among rookie backstops, only Cubs catcher Blake Swihart (1.8 WAR) and Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto (1.7 WAR) are ahead of Swihart, with the crucial caveat that Schwarber has actually spent most of his time in left field.

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Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roberto Osuna recorded his 20th save of the season in Tuesday’s 4-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles, becoming the first Blue Jays rookie since Billy Koch (31) in 1999 to record 20 or more saves in a season, per Sportsnet Stats.

Osuna faced just two batters to get the milestone save, striking out Orioles designated hitter Jimmy Paredes, then inducing a flyout to left field from Orioles catcher Steve Clevenger.

Only 20 years old, Osuna has converted 20 of his 22 save opportunities this season, posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, with a 73-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 68.2 innings. He also has seven holds, all of which came in April, May or early June, before he stepped into the closer’s role.

Despite his age, and despite the fact that he’d never pitched above the High-A level, Osuna earned a spot in the Toronto bullpen right out of spring training, with the team determining that it would rather have him make an instant impact as a reliever, rather than continuing his development as a starter.

Of course, it’s still quite possible the Blue Jays will eventually want Osuna to join the starting rotation, possibly as soon as 2016 or 2017, depending on what the rest of the roster looks like.

On the other hand, there’s an argument to be made for sticking with what works, and there’s little question that Osuna is already one of the team’s most effective relievers.

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