Tag: AL West

Angels Hitting Sustainable Peak Despite Front Office Civil War

For much of 2015, things have been a bit hellish for the Los Angeles Angels. They began the year by raising a ruckus over Josh Hamilton’s latest relapse. More recently, the running feud between Jerry Dipoto and Mike Scioscia finally boiled over, resulting in the former’s ouster

That only happened two weeks ago. And at the time, it was easy to see the Angels as a dead team walking. Surely, ahead of them lay only doom with a side of gloom.

Or not, as it turns out.

After going 37-37 in their first 74 games, the Angels finished the first half on an 11-3 run that catapulted them into first place in the AL West at 48-40. Rather than let an ugly situation snowball, they’ve put said ugly situation in the rearview mirror by playing their best baseball to date.

According to the man in charge, they’ve been able to do so because they haven’t let all the turmoil rob them of their focus. 

“I think the focus is good; there’s really not a lot of distractions there,Scioscia told Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com earlier this month. “We’ve had a lot happen the last couple weeks, and these guys keep playing baseball. That’s what we’re going to focus on.”

This is a good thing. Focused baseball is better than unfocused baseball. And in these recent times, what it’s meant for the Angels is a return to the form of their MLB-best 98-win season from 2014.

Above all, what stood out about the 2014 Angels was how well they could swing the bats. Led by Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, they had a deep collection of quality hitters that produced more runs than any other team.

The Angels offense has largely struggled to carry on the torch in 2015, ranking 11th in the AL in runs. The reason we can say “largely,” though, is because the Angels offense has pulled off a Ben Affleck-like turnaround in recent days.

In their first 74 games, the Angels scored only 3.9 runs per game. But in their last 14 games, a dive into the numbers at BaseballSavant.com goes to show that the offensive gears in Anaheim finally started to turn:

Now, the obvious caveat here is that the Angels offense has erupted over a very small sample size. We’re not looking at definitive proof that the Angels will score 5.6 runs per game the rest of the way.

And yet, this offensive explosion hasn’t come out of nowhere. 

Mike Trout has helped the cause by doing Mike Trout things with a .360 average, 1.292 OPS and seven dingers. Fellow Angels regulars Kole Calhoun, David Freese and Erick Aybar have also found their strides. Calhoun has an OPS of .907 in this stretch, while Freese has a .733 OPS. For his part, Aybar is hitting .455 in his last 11 games.

Regarding Aybar specifically, the Angels have had a hand in his improvement. His hot stretch has coincided with a move into the No. 5 hole, which MLB.com’s Andrew Erickson highlighted as a spot that allows Aybar to hit more like his “slasher” self than a top-of-the-order spot.

It’s not just Angels regulars who have awoken, however.

Also awakening has been slugging designated hitter C.J. Cron, who was ranked by Baseball America as the Angels’ No. 2 prospect not too long ago. Since returning from the minors in late June, he’s hit .459 with a 1.326 OPS and four homers in 10 games.

This is after Cron OPS’d just .505 in 35 games to open the season. That’s a big difference, but Scioscia says it’s reflective of a big difference in Cron‘s approach.

“There’s no doubt he’s in the batter’s box with a little more confidence. I think he feels like he’s better equipped right now. The time spent down in Triple-A was well-served,” Scioscia told Erickson. “There’s no doubt he needed to work out some things and find his timing, and he did and he’s really been attacking the ball well while he’s been up here.”

Rather than some random occurrence, the Angels’ offensive surge thus looks like the result of the best player in baseball looking the part, two established guys living up to their talent, one guy getting put in the right spot and a talented young hitter finding his happy place. That’s a mix that could have some staying power, and the Angels offense will continue to thrive if it does.

And lest we forget about him, odds are Pujols isn’t going to stay as cold as he’s been. There’s also the possibility that the Angels will acquire a hitter before the trade deadline, preferably one who swings left-handed and who can bat leadoff and play left field. Someone like, say, Ben Zobrist or Ben Revere.

Whatever the case, the Angels’ recent offensive surge should prove to be a good warm-up for the second half. If so, they won’t need much in the way of pitching.

But as it happens, they’re pretty well off in that department too.

The Angels didn’t catch fire before the break just because their offense caught fire. Their pitching also had a hand in it, as the Angels allowed only 2.8 runs per game in those last 14 games.

The difference between the Angels offense and their pitching, however, is that the latter has been kicking posteriors for a while now.

For the season, the Angels have a 3.64 ERA that ranks fifth in the American League. Angels pitchers have been even better recently, posting a 3.22 ERA over the last 30 days

The main explanation for that? Well, it helps when four of your five primary starters are getting results:

Of these five, only Matt Shoemaker hasn’t pitched well. And though we could dive into some really nerdy numbers and nitpick how legit the success of the other four is, the reality is that their numbers are accurate enough reflections of their talent.

C.J. Wilson, for example, is a veteran left-hander with a deep repertoire who has fixed the control problems that plagued him in 2014. Hector Santiago has also improved his control, and he’s benefited from being a fly-ball pitcher with one of the league’s elite outfield defenses behind him. Garrett Richards, meanwhile, is a guy with overwhelming stuff who posted a 2.61 ERA last year.

The one wild card in the mix is Andrew Heaney. He’s been successful in his four starts, but those are the only four starts he’s made in an Angels uniform. That, combined with the fact that he got lit up in his first taste of the majors with the Miami Marlins last year, should raise suspicions.

And yet, Heaney‘s hot start does have a tinge of believability to it.

Heaney did come into the year as a consensus top-50 prospect, after all. And though that talent didn’t translate in 2014, the Angels managed to diagnose why that was and go about making fixes.

As Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register reported, the Angels stopped Heaney from reaching across his body with every throw. The result has been better velocity and better command than he showed in his underwhelming debut in 2014. Hence, better results.

Assuming Heaney‘s breakthrough is legit, then the Angels have at least four starters to rely on. The return of Jered Weaver could make it five if his stint on the disabled list somehow leads to him recovering some lost velocity. If not, oh well. Four out of five is still pretty good.

Even better is that the Angels rotation need not do all the heavy lifting. After having one of baseball’s best bullpens in the second half of 2014, it could be the same old story down the stretch this year.

The Angels have already been operating with an excellent late-inning duo, as right-handers Huston Street and Joe Smith both own ERAs under 3.00 and the peripherals to back them up. But in the person of Trevor Gott, the Angels may now have a third shutdown reliever.

The 22-year-old right-hander has only made 13 appearances, but that’s been enough for him to make an impression. He’s allowed only 13 baserunners in racking up a 2.77 ERA. And though he’s struck out only seven, he’s shown good command of his high-90s fastball and an ability to keep the ball on the ground.

If Gott lives up to what he’s teased so far, then the Angels stand to push their way through the second half with a shutdown bullpen, a solid starting rotation and a much-improved offense. That, certainly, doesn’t sound like a team that’s likely to fade after finally showing up just before the All-Star break.

And if it helps, they’re not expected to by the computers.

Though they disagree on whether the Angels will be the AL West’s best team down the stretch, both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus project them to finish the season on top for their second straight division title.

It thus doesn’t take a pair of human eyes to see that the Angels should continue being about as good as they’ve looked recently. That’s commendable even without context, but the context in this case makes it look so much more so. 

Seemingly poised to fall apart just weeks ago, what the Angels have done instead is come together. If that does indeed lead to another AL West title, it’ll make the victory taste that much sweeter.

  

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Gallardo Records Rangers’ Longest Scoreless Streak Since 2005

Texas Rangers pitcher Yovani Gallardo extended his scoreless run to 29.1 innings during Thursday’s 2-0 win over the Baltimore Orioles, giving him the Rangers’ longest such streak since Kenny Rogers tossed 31 consecutive scoreless innings in 2005, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN Stats & Info).

Gallardo only struck out two batters during Thursday’s game yet still held the Orioles to no runs on just two hits and three walks over six innings. He didn’t pick up a decision, but the Rangers eventually scored a pair of runs in the ninth inning to walk away with a 2-0 victory.

Gallardo has now held his opponents scoreless in four consecutive starts, allowing just 14 hits over 26.1 innings during that stretch despite posting an ugly 13-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The surprising streak has sunk his ERA from 3.45 to 2.56 for the season, putting him fourth among all qualified starters in the American League.

Advanced metrics suggest the 29-year-old has been among the luckiest pitchers in the league, as his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) sits at 3.48, with his Skill Independent ERA (SIERA) at an even 4.00, according to FanGraphs.

Although the recent level of success is likely unsustainable for a pitcher who otherwise seems to be in the declining phase of his career, Gallardo has at least proved to be the one reliable starter in an otherwise shaky rotation.

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Ranking the Oakland A’s Best All-Star Game Candidates

The All-Star Game is July 14 and the Oakland A’s have several quality candidates that could head to Cincinnati to represent the American League.

Unfortunately, fan voting seems like it will knock out many of those candidates, from Oakland and many other teams, in place of much less deserving players. Because of that, the likelihood the A’s send more than a player or two are slim.

Despite that, and a losing record, Oakland has three solid options, with three fringe players that wouldn’t be terrible injury replacements.

 

Fringe Guys

I’m not saying these guys should go. I’m saying these guys could go if there is a lack of better options, and they wouldn’t be terrible picks.

Marcus Semien has a slim chance of making the team, but it’d have to be as a replacement.

He currently has the third-most votes among AL shortstops. Stats-wise, he’s hot on Alcides Escobar‘s tail (Escobar leads votes). The two are neck and neck in hits, runs, doubles and stolen bases. Semien walks more, but strikes out more. He hits more home runs. Escobar has the RBI total.

Josh Reddick is in the hunt but faces an even tougher challenge.

He currently has the 10th-most votes among outfielders. Yet, he has the eighth-best batting average of AL outfielders. I know, I know, batting average isn’t the best stat. For what it’s worth, he has the second-most RBI, too.

I imagine the starting pitchers in the discussion to represent the American League include a guy on this list, Dallas Keuchel, Chris Archer and David Price at the top. Felix Hernandez will be up there too, because, well, he’s Felix Hernandez.

Down the line is Scott Kazmir.

Among those with at least 90 innings pitched, Kazmir has the seventh-best ERA in the American League. He’s also hanging around in WHIP and FIP (Fangraphs). He’s too far removed to be in the discussion as a top-five guy, but he might crack the top-10 and make the team if guys toward the top drop out.

 

3. Jesse Chavez

Jesse Chavez is more deserving than Scott Kazmir. Hear me out.

As a starter, Chavez is right there. His 2.91 FIP is eighth best in the AL. His 3.02 ERA is 10th best. His 2.1 WAR is ninth best. But his HR/9 numbers are at the top in terms of lowest.

Here’s the kicker.

Throw in the six innings he pitched as a reliever. From the bullpen, Chavez kept a 0.00 ERA, struck out nine and walked one.

Hence, because of his versatility, because he can pitch virtually any time in any role, he’s a valuable asset for the American League team. He’s a top-10 starting pitcher and he hasn’t been scored on as a reliever in a small sample size this season. (Though we know on a larger scale he is in fact effective out of the pen.)

It seems like a smart move to include him on the roster.

 

2. Stephen Vogt

As CSN’s Brodie Brazil pointed out June 21, Stephen Vogt was ahead of leading vote-getter Salvador Perez in multiple categories. Today it still holds true, albeit in home runs, where Perez and Vogt are tied. Vogt‘s WAR is 2.8 compared to Perez’s 1.3. His .335 BABIP blows Perez’s .273 away.

Kansas City fans stuffed the ballot boxes, so it’s going to be difficult for Vogt to overtake Perez, but he can definitely make the All-Star Game as a backup catcher.

The only other two guys close are Russell Martin and Brian McCann.

Vogt isn’t just making a case for himself against fellow catchers only, either. His batting average is 11th best in the American League. He’s in the top 10 for walks and RBI as well.

While it seems like Vogt should be the starter, the next guy leaves no doubt he’s deserving.

 

1. Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is hands down the best candidate to be the A’s representative at the All-Star Game.

As of this writing, he leads the American League in ERA. His 2.68 FIP is fourth in the AL. His 3.9 WAR is second only to Dallas Keuchel‘s 4.1. Gray’s 0.99 WHIP is fourth in the AL as well. 

Of 16 starts, 12 have been quality starts.

But not only is Gray pitching well generally speaking, he’s pitching at such a high caliber that many consider him the front-runner to start for the American League at the All-Star Game.

On June 3, David Schoenfield of ESPN said Gray should start. According to Matt Kawahara of the Sacramento BeeStephen Vogt agrees:

Doesn’t matter what he does between now and the All-Star Game. The first half Sonny’s had and the way our team’s been playing, with our record … Sonny Gray is 100 percent an All-Star, if not the starting pitcher of the All-Star Game, in my opinion.

Gray’s last two starts have been ugly. If that trend continues, he’ll likely go to the game, but not start. However, if he “returns to form” for lack of better words, it’d be disappointing if he didn’t start.

We’ll see how it shakes out.

I’d guess Gray and Vogt are locks. Chavez is iffy and the rest don’t make it.

All stats courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

 

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Ranking Los Angeles Angels’ Best All-Star Game Candidates

The 2015 MLB All-Star Game is taking place July 14 in Cincinnati. Fan voting for the starting lineups wraps up this week. There is still some time to get votes submitted for your favorite Los Angeles Angels players. However, only a few have a real shot at playing in the game this year.

Each team is required to receive at least one participant because of an asinine rule. Outside of that, an All-Star berth comes down to popularity and production. Here are the Angels’ top candidates to be named an All-Star in order of likelihood.

 

1) Mike Trout

No surprise here, as Trout leads all American League players in WAR.

 

2) Albert Pujols

A number of weeks ago, I wrote a Bold Predictions column in which I said Pujols would make the All-Star team. While most of the other predictions from that piece seem foolish now, this one I nailed.

Pujols has been on an absolute tear since May. He’s hit 20 home runs in the last two months alone. He has a 1.142 OPS during the month of June. He is even now up to second in the AL in WAR among first basemen. After such a shaky beginning to the season, Pujols is inarguably the team’s second-best player and is deserving of that All-Star bid that seemed so bold to predict just six weeks ago.

 

3) Huston Street

Sadly for Los Angeles fans, after Trout and Pujols, there is a real drop before the team’s third-best candidate. Street is that guy, but his chances of making the team are no sure thing.

Street is third in the AL with 21 saves. His peripherals also stack up nicely with his positional counterparts. The problem is there are a number of non-closers who have been much better than Street this year.

Dellin Betances and Wade Davis (besides picking up saves as injury replacements) have been untouchable middle relievers. The same goes for lesser names like Evan Scribner (41-to-3 strikeout-to-walk rate) or Darren O’Day.

The saves may get Street into the game anyway. Despite the progressive nature of baseball fans, that stat still matters in many circles.

 

4) Hector Santiago

The last player in Anaheim with any chance of making the All-Star game is Hector Santiago, and he likely doesn’t have much of a chance.

Santiago has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season and has solid figures across the board. Little else makes him a realistic All-Star, however. His record is just 4-4 in 15 starts and he’s given up 13 home runs this season.

Most pressing is the fact that there are simply too many elite arms in baseball right now.

His 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings mark is very good for a starting pitcher, but it puts him 13th in the AL this season among qualified pitchers. His 1.13 walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) is also superb, but it doesn’t even put him in the top half-dozen among AL starters.

Santiago has had a good year, but it won’t likely be good enough to make the team. The mediocre play of the Angels will hurt him, as will his manager’s propensity to rejigger the rotation to save arms. It may be the smart play, but it doesn’t come off positively when your manager skips your turn in the rotation.

At 39-37 this season, Los Angeles has had a sloppy year. Getting four players into the All-Star Game is a little too much to ask. The Angels are guaranteed one All-Star and could potentially have more. That’s not too bad.

 

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Seattle Marines vs. Los Angeles Angels Live Blog: Instant Reactions and Analysis

The Seattle Mariners began the season with lofty expectations, but they’ve failed to meet them as we approach the midway point of the season.

Seattle took a step in the right direction in the first game of a three-game series in Anaheim, beating the Los Angeles Angels 3-1.

Robinson Cano hit a solo home run, and Taijuan Walker pitched seven innings of one-run ball to get the win.

Aside from the Houston Astros, the rest of the division has been mediocre so far in 2015, with the Angels and Texas Rangers tied for second place, trailing Houston by five games.

Mike Trout hit a solo home run in the first inning for the only run of the game for the Angels.

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George Springer Taking Big Next Step to Realizing Star Potential

There are several reasons for the Houston Astros’ stunning position at the top of the American League West standings. 

A decent enough rotation led by dominant ace Dallas Keuchel; a dominant bullpen that is on a historic pace, threatening to set the record for lowest WHIP in a season since 1920; a powerful lineup that is among the best slugging teams in the majors; and a defense that is surprisingly effective at preventing runs.

You can point to a number of factors for the Astros sitting three games ahead of the Texas Rangers in the AL West, pushing their competitive clock ahead by about two years.

George Springer is yet another, even if everyone is failing to fully acknowledge his rise as one of baseball’s young stars.

“He’s definitely All-Star worthy,” manager A.J. Hinch, a member of the AL All-Star coaching staff, told reporters Sunday. “There’s some talented guys out there, but he should absolutely be in the conversation.”

Springer’s candidacy got off to a slow start this season following a breakout rookie year in which he slugged .804, hit 20 home runs and accumulated a 126 OPS-plus in 345 plate appearances.

Even though the Astros won 24 of their first 34 games to stun the American League, especially in the West, Springer, hitting anywhere from second to fourth in the order, batted .185/.327/.387 with a .713 OPS and 40 strikeouts in that time. Sophomore slump was written all over his season with that start, but things turned around in a hurry for the 25-year-old right fielder.

Springer, drafted 11th overall in 2011 and a top-25 prospect heading into last season, has unloaded in the 31 games since. Entering Monday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels, Springer hit .379/.434/.589 with a 1.023 OPS, eight doubles and six home runs. He has struck out 35 times—that will most likely always be a part of this game—but the non-strikeouts were far more productive during this stretch as his BABIP was an incredible .494.

He also went into Monday with a 14-game hitting streak, which was snapped Monday. During this recent run, he has been the team’s leadoff man in all but four of the games. Springer has a .440 OBP out of that spot and has become a dangerous source of power as six of his 12 home runs have come from place in the order.

Before Springer, Jose Altuve had been the team’s primary leadoff man. He has since dropped to third as Springer has emerged up top.

“I feel pretty excited about hitting behind, for me, the best hitter in the big leagues right now, which is George Springer,” Altuve told the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich on Monday.

Part of Springer’s success this season has been an ability to hit the ball to all fields. He has adjusted to how he is being pitched as a power threat and is more willing to hit the ball up the middle and the other way for hits than in 2014. 

He is pulling the ball nine percent less than he did last season, more than seven percent more of his balls are being hit to the middle of the diamond and nearly four percent more are going the other way, according to FanGraphs data.

“I understand that the object is to get to first base and I think that’s helped slow me down,” Springer told reporters Sunday. “Instead of me trying to hit a home run every single time, you know, I just understand that if I just take a nice, easy, controlled swing and get to first base for who’s ever up behind me, our offense can go.”

Springer is a soft speaker, often discussing himself with as few words as possible. Modesty is not a problem for a player who is eighth in FanGraphs WAR among all American League outfielders this season and fourth over the last 30 days going into Monday. His season OPS-plus was also up to 142 through Sunday.

“No,” Springer told reporters Sunday when asked if he’d thought about making the All-Star team. “I’m just out here trying to help us win. We’re on a good streak right now.”

It is time, however, for the baseball-loving world to start recognizing Springer as one of the best right fielders in the game. He hits for power, gets on base, can steal a few—13 in 15 attempts—and is developing as a defensive right fielder.

Even if he does not burst onto the national stage this year as an All-Star, he is showing he has the tools to do so very soon. Possibly in October.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Nelson Cruz Injury: Updates on Mariners Star’s Pelvis and Return

Seattle Mariners slugging outfielder/DH Nelson Cruz left June 22’s game against the Kansas City Royals due to a pelvic injury. He would return to the lineup the following day, the team announced.

Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon described the injury following Monday’s game, via Andrew Erickson of MLB.com, “I’m not sure how to describe it, but his pelvic bone kind of popped out of place and he had some discomfort.” 

Dustin Ackley replaced Cruz in the seventh inning of Monday’s game. Cruz went 0-for-2 before exiting with what was initially thought to be a hamstring injury prior to McClendon’s clarification.

He recently suffered back spasms that forced him to leave a June 9 game and miss the following tilt against the Cleveland Indians.

Cruz has been atop the American League home run chart for much of the 2015 season, enjoying a successful first year with the Mariners, which are struggling in the AL West. He is currently second in the AL with 19 home runs. For the season, Cruz is hitting .313 and has driven in 44 runs. 

Last season, in his only year with the Baltimore Orioles, Cruz led the league with 40 home runs and was fourth with 108 RBI. The big year helped him pen a four-year, $57 million deal with the Mariners in December 2014.

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What We’ve Learned About the LA Angels Near the Halfway Mark

Seventy games into the 2015 MLB season, the Los Angeles Angels are owners of a 35-35 record. At exactly .500 is not where Los Angeles wanted to be nearing the halfway point of the baseball season, but these 70 games are already banked. The wins and losses aren’t going anywhere.

With a plus-three run differential, the results are right in line with the production thus far. If not for the very surprising seasons put together by the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles may even have been closer to first place despite the mediocre record.

At 35-35, the Angels have shown some drastic strengths and weaknesses throughout the roster. Here are a few of the most influential things we’ve learned about the team up to this point.

 

The offense is much worse than it was last year

It wasn’t hard for the team’s offense to fall short of where it was a season ago. Last year’s Angels were great at the plate. They led all of baseball in runs (773) by a healthy margin. They finished in the top five in total bases (2,295) and seventh in OPS (.728).

This year’s squad is worse, and unfortunately, it has been considerably worse.

Through 70 games, rather than being a top-flight offense, it is a bottom-third unit. Los Angeles ranks 23rd in total bases (888), 24th in batting average (.242), 23rd in on-base percentage (.303) and 20th in slugging percentage (.384). Even though the lineup contains many of the same bats as last year, the production has not been at the same level. However…

 

The offense can be better in the second half

Because we have past examples of success from many of these hitters, it isn’t hard to predict, or expect, an offensive turnaround in the second half of the season.

Erick Aybar, for example, has never had a season with an on-base percentage under .300 when he’s gotten at least 300 at-bats. He also hasn’t stolen fewer than 12 bases in a season since seven years ago. Expect him to get to first base more often in the summer months and, as a result, steal a few more bases than he has thus far.

Similar arguments can be made to varying degrees about Chris Iannetta, C.J. Cron and Matt Joyce.

Joyce’s season is especially confounding. He has never been a good hitter against lefties but has always produced against right-handers. In 2015, though, even that platoon matchup has failed him. His .614 OPS against righties this year is nearly 200 points below his career split!

 

Huston Street is underrated yet again

Every season, Huston Street falls under the radar when the discussion of elite closers comes up. Every year, a bunch of closers with the job supposedly locked down get demoted to positions of lesser prominence. Every year, Street seems to avoid both the talk of the best guys as well as the slew of those relegated to lesser roles.

This year has been another example of both.

In 27.0 innings, Street is 20-of-22 in save chances, with a 2.33 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 28 strikeouts.

 

Starting pitching will be an issue all season

Although Street has anchored a strong bullpen, the starting pitching for Los Angeles has been a different story.

Hector Santiago has been good, but he has also seen the team skip his turn in the rotation and drop him to relief roles on occasion.

Garrett Richards has been OK, but he got a late start to the season and has not lived up to his sky-high talent.

Both Matt Shoemaker and Jered Weaver have been bad, and they have also battled through injuries. Shoemaker lost some turns in the rotation, and Weaver is currently on the disabled list with hip inflammation.

These four guys, along with C.J. Wilson, have combined to start 68 of the team’s 70 games. If Los Angeles doesn’t discover reliable sixth and seventh options, the injuries and below-average output will do great harm to the Angels’ record.

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What We’ve Learned About the Seattle Mariners Near the Halfway Mark

A disappointing Seattle Mariners team will have to play much better in the second half of the season than it did in the first half to have any shot at making the postseason.

Through 70 games, the Mariners sit at a lowly 32-38. That’s 8.5 games behind the surprising Houston Astros in the American League West, and six teams currently stand between Seattle and the second wild card.

On paper, this looked like the Mariners’ best chance to make the playoffs or even win the World Series, so it’s hard to be too optimistic about the club at the moment. While there’s still time for the Mariners to go on a hot streak and get back into it, it isn’t early in the season anymore.

There are a few key takeaways from the first 70 games of Seattle’s 2015 campaign, and most of them aren’t positive.

 

The pitching looks to be set up nicely for the present and future…

Once again, the Mariners’ pitching staff has found ways to be successful despite dealing with multiple injuries. After a rough first few weeks of the season, Seattle starters have climbed to fourth in the AL in ERA and fifth in strikeout-to-walk percentage.

Apart from two uncharacteristically bad starts earlier this month, Felix Hernandez has again been spectacular. An even more encouraging sign is the development of some young pitchers.

The biggest concern of the early season was Taijuan Walker looking completely lost on the mound. However, Walker has been dominant over his last five starts, posting a 2.06 ERA in 35 innings with 38 strikeouts and just three walks.

Roenis Elias has also been solid for the most part since being called up in late April. In 11 starts, Elias has a 3.56 ERA (4.44 Fielding Independent Pitching), has decreased his walk rate by 1.3 percentage points since last year and flashed dominant upside by allowing two runs in seven innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks against Houston on Friday.

James Paxton also had a nice stretch in May although it is definitely time to be worried about his injury history. If those four can stay healthy (a huge “if” for any pitcher), the Mariners should be in good hands for the foreseeable future.

A nice surprise has been Mike Montgomery, who has looked like a capable back-end starter since being pressed into action. It’s just four games into Montgomery’s career, but so far, he’s done a nice job of mixing up his pitches and avoiding hard contact to make up for his lack of overpowering stuff. The Mariners need Montgomery to pitch well, as he represents just about the only pitching depth in the minor league system.

The bullpen has struggled a bit more at times than last year. There is some good news, as Carson Smith appears to be the new closer, a role he should keep for a long time.

 

…While the offense is still a problem

This looked like the year the Mariners could finally have the offense to match the pitching. Instead, Seattle has scored the second-fewest runs in the AL to go along with owning the second-worst OBP.

Looking at individual stats, the poor output is a bit hard to figure. Nelson Cruz has been one of the best hitters in the majors, Seth Smith has been good, and five regulars own a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) above 100.

However, three spots in the lineup have been black holes, and the bench has been woeful, as was expected. Seattle also has been awful hitting with runners in scoring position whether that’s bad luck or some organizational failure.

The biggest culprit has been Robinson Cano, who owns a 73 wRC+ and minus-0.2 WAR. Everyone expected the Cano deal to become a terrible contract at some point but certainly not in the second year.

If Cano continues to play like this, the Mariners can forget about the playoffs this season, and they’ll be in huge trouble for years to come.

There was nothing wrong with adding Rickie Weeks or trading for Mark Trumbo on an individual level. However, it’s becoming frustrating to see the Mariners continue to focus on the same player type: right-handed, high-power, low-OBP hitters with no defensive abilities. Unless the offense improves, the Mariners could be looking at changes at the top and another lengthy rebuild.

 

It’s time to move on from Dustin Ackley and be worried about Mike Zunino

Ackley and Zunino were two of the biggest question marks in Seattle’s projected everyday lineup heading into the season. Both have a lot of untapped potential at the plate but haven’t proved much in the major leagues yet.

For a time last year, Ackley remembered to hit to all fields and put up offensive numbers reminiscent of his rookie season. That hasn’t carried over to 2015 at all, as Ackley has a .190/.250/.310 line in 61 games.

Ackley is now nearly 2,200 plate appearances into his career with a 89 wRC+, and it might be time for the Mariners to just move on. A former top prospect who can play multiple positions fairly well might have at least a minimum amount of trade value, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ackley was elsewhere after the deadline.

Zunino isn’t nearly as long into his career, and he’s fantastic on the defensive side, so it isn’t time to give up on him yet. But it is time to be worried, as Zunino was supposed to make major strides this year with another season of experience under his belt.

Instead, Zunino has been worse almost across the board, with a .158/.230/.300 line. A walk rate that is nearly doubled is at least something, but Zunino is striking out over 4 percentage points more.

Ideally, Zunino would be in the minors right now, getting the development the organization denied him for no apparent reason in 2013. However, the Mariners have no other catcher in the system who could possibly start in the big leagues, a major knock against the front office.

 

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Albert Pujols Providing the Co-Star Mike Trout Has Desperately Needed

Earlier in June, Albert Pujols insisted that the Los Angeles Angels were not “the Mike Trout show.” This was despite all evidence to the contrary, as the Angels had been on Trout’s back all season.

But here we are a couple of weeks later, and time has proven Pujols wise. The Angels are no longer The Mike Trout Show. Now they’re what they were supposed to be: The Mike Trout and Albert Pujols Show.

After getting off to a painfully slow start with a .235 average and .702 OPS through May 27, Pujols has made it impossible to ignore what he’s has been doing since then. ESPN’s Baseball Tonight sent out this tweet Friday morning that highlighted Pujols as arguably the game’s hottest hitter:

He has refused to cool down over the weekend. The 35-year-old first baseman went 5-for-11 with a double and a home run—the 538th of his career, putting him 10 shy of Mike Schmidt for 15th all time—in a three-game series against the Oakland A’s. Even after taking an 0-fer Monday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he’s still hitting .369 with a 1.284 OPS and 10 homers since May 28.

In the meantime, Trout has also stayed hot. Though he hasn’t quite kept up with his slugging partner in crime, he’s hitting a rock-solid .297 with a 1.038 OPS and seven home runs since May 28. 

Thus have Trout and Pujols re-emerged as one of the American League‘s top offensive duos. Trout is having the better season with a .958 OPS, 18 home runs and eight stolen bases, but Pujols’ .863 OPS and 18 dingers hardly make him look like a slouch.

And now that it’s sipping on Mike and Albert’s Secret Stuff—like Michael’s Secret Stuff, except more potent—the Angels offense is looking more like what it was supposed to be. 

Per Baseball Savant, here are the splits:

When it was Trout doing all the heavy lifting earlier in the season, the Angels offense was one of the most punchless units in MLB. Since Pujols came alive, it’s looked a lot more like the league-best offense that led the Angels to a league-best 98 wins in 2014.

It makes you wonder: How, exactly, has Pujols’ bat caught fire in such a hurry?

According to the man himself, it’s a case of talent finally combining with luck.

As Pujols told Michael Kolligian of MLB.com: “I’ve been swinging the bat well all year long and, if you stay with that approach, sooner or later they’re going to fall.”

And as he told David Adler and Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com: “It’s the same thing I’ve been doing since Day 1, since Opening Day. I told you guys that. Just better luck, I guess. Instead of hitting balls right at people, I’m finding some holes. It’s a good feeling.”

It’s a reasonable explanation. Pujols is one of the greatest hitters to ever play the game, after all. And though his best days are undeniably behind him, the guy did just OPS .790 with 28 home runs in 2014, for cryin’ out loud!

But while Pujols’ current mega-hot stretch could indeed be a case of his collecting on overdue good luck, I’d like to propose an alternate theory: This is what Pujols looks like when he’s angry.

Let’s hop in the TARDIS and go back in time to May 25. 

On that day, the Angels found themselves locked in a 3-3 tie with the San Diego Padres heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. In the blink of an eye, there were runners on first and third, and Trout was striding to the plate.

With a base open, the Padres could either pitch to Trout or give him four wide ones and take their chances with Pujols. Trout entered the game with a .944 OPS, whereas Pujols had a .709 OPS. So, now-former Padres skipper Bud Black played the numbers and passed on Trout to bring up Pujols.

Here’s what happened:

That there’s a walk-off single. And if you watch to the end of the highlight, you’ll see Pujols glaring at the Padres dugout immediately after the ball left his bat and all the way down the first base line. He was effectively saying, “Take that!” And not at all in a jokey, light-hearted manner.

That wasn’t the first time an opponent intentionally walked Trout to bring Pujols to the plate. After it happened again in a couple of subsequent games, Jill Painter Lopez of Fox Sports West caught up with Pujols to get his thoughts.

His response: “I don’t think about that, dude. It’s part of the game. They can do that 100 more times. That doesn’t bother me. I’ve been on the other side, too.”

A diplomatic response, to be sure. In fact, Pujols made it sound like he checked his annoyance with the first intentional walk at the door as soon as the situation was over.

Looked at from another perspective, however? Maybe not. Since the Padres challenged him to live up to his career track record back on May 25, Pujols has been a different hitter.

One way we can tell is by looking at his approach in the batter’s box. According to Baseball Savant, Pujols was swinging at 46.1 percent of the pitches he saw through May 25, which FanGraphs tells us was in line with his career norms. Since May 26, however, he’s swinging 51.3 percent of the time. 

Thus, he’s gotten more aggressive. We’re witnessing Pujols in attack mode.

Normally, what you worry about when you see a hitter swinging more aggressively is more wild swings that result in too many easy outs for the pitcher. Or, as they’re colloquially known, “strikeouts.”

But those haven’t been a problem. Pujols was only striking out 12.5 percent of the time to begin with through May 25. Since then, he’s struck out in only 5.1 percent of his plate appearances. The exact numbers: four (four!) strikeouts in 79 plate appearances. 

So, Pujols hasn’t just been a more aggressive hitter since that fateful IBB. He’s been a more aggressive hitter who’s making lots of contact. 

And this extra contact has been of the loud variety. Here’s how Pujols’ average exit velocities split up:

  • Through May 25: 90.9 mph
  • Since May 26: 94.3 mph

Because we now know that batted balls really become dangerous once they get into the mid-90s and beyond in velocity, the leap Pujols has made is a significant one.

And if you go looking for hitters who have been crushing the ball like he has since May 26, you get a list that includes the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton and, naturally, Trout.

So, Pujols hasn’t just turned into a more aggressive hitter who’s making more contact. He’s turned into a more aggressive hitter who’s making contact and punishing the ball when he does.

If it wasn’t already taken, The Force Awakens would be a darn good title for a movie about the transformation that Pujols has undergone since the Padres dared to test him. And for the Angels, the result has been the rejuvenation of the Trout/Pujols duo and, with it, their offense as a whole.

Now, it should go without saying that Pujols can’t possibly keep this up for the rest of the season. What he’s doing right now would result in a 90-homer campaign over a 162-game sample, which says enough about the sustainability of his performance. And as Rob Neyer of Fox Sports noted, Pujols isn’t drawing walks or using the opposite field like he usually does.

However, the hitter Pujols is right now is more reflective of the hitter he’s supposed to be than the hitter he was before. The big projection systems see him managing an .800-ish OPS with around 17 homers the rest of the way. That’s probably asking a bit much. But he should be able to come reasonably close to being that good as long as his anger mode is kept on “BERSERK.”

And if that’s the case, the Angels lineup will continue to be a challenge. It could be beaten when it was all about Trout. It’s a lot harder to top now that it’s all about Trout and Pujols.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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