Kuzul

The Seattle Mariners haven’t found a right-handed power hitter yet. But bless their heart, they sure are trying.

With righty power in short supply, the Mariners don’t have a laundry list of options. But thanks to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, we know that general manager Jack Zduriencik is interested in the winter’s top trade options:

And thanks to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, we know Jack Z is also eyeing the top free-agent option:

We had previously heard from Nightengale that the Mariners were “aggressively pursuing” Hanley Ramirez, another righty swinger with power. He landed with the Boston Red Sox, but at the time I outlined why the Mariners’ head was in the right place. They were looking at a bat that could be:

1. The dangerous right-handed presence they need alongside Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.
2. The clean-up hitter they sorely lacked in 2014.

Simple stuff, but important. If the Mariners can acquire a guy who can fill those two needs, they could head into 2015 as the most balanced team in the American League.

Hypothetically, any of the four hitters on their radar now—they might also be interested in Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, but we’ll take Peter Gammons‘ word for it that Seattle is merely “lurking”—could fit with the Mariners like Ramirez could have. But the question is which could fit without costing too much.

So let’s go one by one and see what we can see.

Nelson Cruz

Naturally, one’s eyes are drawn to what Cruz did with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014. He was the league’s top power hitter, posting an .859 OPS and clubbing an MLB-high 40 home runs.

Not that Cruz was some slouch before 2014, mind you. Between 2009 and 2013, he racked up an .842 OPS and averaged 27 dingers. If the Mariners can sign him, it’s possible they’ll have found their best right-handed power hitter since Richie Sexson.

And yet, the reasons to be wary of Cruz are many.

There’s how he really wasn’t anything special for the majority of 2014, OPS’ing just .759 with 20 homers over his final 106 games. There’s also how his career-best production came at the age of 33 and how most of it came at designated hitter. 

In the words of FanGraphs‘ Dave Cameron:

Signing a 34 year old in the hopes that they can repeat a career year is generally a bad bet, and if Cruz returns to something closer to prior form, he’s an average player who is about to get paid like an impact hitter.

Another thing for the Mariners to worry about is how Cruz has never had the misfortune of calling an extreme pitchers’ park home. After spending the last eight seasons swinging it at Globe Life Park in Arlington and Oriole Park at Camden Yards, it’s likely that he and Safeco Field wouldn’t get along so well.

It all adds up to a hefty list of question marks for a guy who’s going to cost a lot. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says Cruz wants a four-year deal, and Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get one worth $70 million. That’s in addition to a lost draft pick, of course.

Would Cruz work as a final puzzle piece? Maybe only barely and for a lot of money.

Matt Kemp

Kemp’s 2014 season boils down to a tale of two halves.

In the first half, Kemp only had a .760 OPS and eight home runs. In the second half, he had a .971 OPS and 17 home runs. It’s surely the latter performance that the Los Angeles Dodgers will try to benefit from if they trade him, something Jon Heyman says they’re indeed willing to do.

The big question for the Mariners: Is Kemp’s second-half rebound worth buying into?

That it was a vintage performance is one answer for a yes, with another being that there was a good reason for it. Kemp changed his stance around the All-Star break, and Dodgers assistant hitting coach John Valentin explained how it made a huge difference.

“He actually has straightened his stance,” Valentin told Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register. “It used to be locked. What that created was a difficulty to have the freedom to stay through the baseball. This offers a clear path to hit balls in and away.”

As for what it would take to get Kemp, the big hurdle is the $107 million he’s owed over the next five years. But the Dodgers may be willing to eat some of that if the Mariners give them enough, and they have expendable assets they might be able to unload on the Dodgers.

The Dodgers need a shortstop, bullpen help and, possibly, a right fielder who could take Kemp’s place. To these ends, the Mariners could part with Brad Miller or Chris Taylor, one of their bullpen’s power arms and/or Michael Saunders.

One catch with a Kemp trade is that the Mariners would be taking on a guy who’s only one year removed from two injury-wrecked seasons and who, at 30, probably only has a couple good years left. Another is that he can’t run or defend like he once could.

Still, Kemp’s recent production and his experience in an extreme pitchers’ park in Dodger Stadium are appealing. That and the possibility he could be had in a sensible trade make him a solid overall target.

Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes is going to hit you 20 homers. He’s hit at least 22 in each of his three seasons, and that he’s done so mostly at a big-time pitchers’ park in O.co Coliseum should appeal to the Mariners.

Exactly what else Cespedes can bring to the table is where things get iffy. He only has a .298 on-base percentage over the last two seasons. He’s not a particularly great baserunner. And while he has an outstanding arm, he’s not much of a defender otherwise.

In light of these faults, Cespedes is arguably the least attractive option on Seattle’s radar. A deal for him is possible but shouldn’t cost the Mariners anything they’d miss.

And if this tweet from Morosi is any indication, that may be impossible:

A deal like this would make sense to the extent that it would be a free-agent-to-be for a free-agent-to-be, and it would net the Mariners the power bat they desire.

But they’d also be parting with a guy who owns a 2.97 ERA in 77 career starts. Iwakuma is also owed $7 million in 2015, compared to $10.5 million for Cespedes. Swapping their salaries would thus make it a little tougher for the Mariners to add a suitable replacement from the open market.

Granted, maybe there’s a way for the Mariners to get Cespedes without sacrificing Iwakuma. But because of their desperate need for starting pitching, the Red Sox would probably demand a trade structured around Taijuan Walker or James Paxton if they can’t get Iwakuma.

And if the Mariners are going to give up one of those guys, they’d be better off going for…

Justin Upton

You’ll recall this is a road the Mariners tried to go down two winters ago. 

B/R’s own Scott Miller, then of CBSSports.com, reported that the Mariners agreed to acquire Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Walker and three other players, only to come away with nothing thanks to Upton’s no-trade protection.

Since then, Upton has gone on to compile an .826 OPS and 56 home runs despite playing mainly in Turner Field’s pitcher-friendly environment. And according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, he’s removed the Mariners from his no-trade list and is now actively being shopped.

But the Braves want a lot for him. More than they got for Jason Heyward, in fact.

I outlined last week why that’s a sensible stance. And because Atlanta got a talented, controllable young starter for Heyward in the person of Shelby Miller, the easy assumption to make is that Walker would once again have to be the centerpiece of a deal.

Either him or Paxton, anyway. And while it would undoubtedly be a better idea to trade one of them for him than for Cespedes, the Mariners would still be chipping away at a supply of controllable talent to add a rental talent. Like Cespedes, Upton is also a free agent after 2015.

So rather than a straight-up swap, the Mariners would likely have to get creative. ESPN’s David Schoenfield recommended adding either Miller or Taylor to the deal in hopes of also getting Evan Gattis, which would definitely be a sweeter haul. 

But even then, it wouldn’t be a slam dunk. The Mariners would have a deeper offense but a shallower pitching staff. And with Upton a likely goner after 2015, the deeper offense wouldn’t last forever.

So then…

So Then…

This being a thing on the Internet, I’ll rank the four targets on Seattle’s radar in order from most sensible (one) to least sensible (four):

1. Kemp
2. Upton
3. Cruz
4. Cespedes

Cespedes being at the bottom has much to do with him simply being the worst hitter of the four, though the likely Iwakuma-sized price tag is also a pretty big factor. As for Cruz, the possibility of the Mariners getting burned by a big contact for an aging hitter who’s too used to hitter-friendly parks is just too real.

That leaves Kemp and Upton. I’d take Upton’s abilities over Kemp’s, and that he’s only 27 makes him easily more attractive from an age perspective. The possibility that Kemp could be acquired for expendable assets and controlled beyond 2015, however, gives him the edge.

Now you know who Zach D would be targeting if he was Jack Z. If he’s able to pull it off, you’re going to want to watch out for the Mariners in 2015 and beyond. They’re already pretty good, and a deal for Kemp could well be what makes them great.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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The best season of Kyle Seager’s MLB career will apparently result in the Seattle Mariners third baseman being set for life. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reported Monday that the Mariners and Seager were finalizing a seven-year, $100 million contract extension, which Jon Heyman of CBS Sports confirmed was done:

Seager, 27, was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. The deal will allow Seattle to buy out the at-times contentious arbitration process and gain control of him for almost all of his prime years. Seattle has a club option for an eighth season at $20 million, a price it would likely have no problem paying if his ascent continues.   

An All-Star for the first time in 2014, Seager has emerged as one of baseball’s best all-around third basemen. He hit .268/.334/.454 with 25 home runs and 96 RBI last season, setting career highs in each of those categories. Renowned for his defensive skills, Seager also added a Gold Glove and dwarfed his previous best in wins above replacement, via FanGraphs.

“He is the most efficient third baseman in the game today,” Mariners infield coach Chris Woodward told Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. “He has no wasted movement and he still constantly critiques himself even after plays he makes by telling me: ‘I should have taken a better angle, or I should have come to get that last hop.’ He has slowed down one of the most difficult positions on the field.”

Seager’s defensive improvement helped hide some deficiencies elsewhere on the roster. Seattle finished 19th in FanGraphs‘ defensive runs saved metric despite Seager’s efforts.

The one place Seattle will hope Seager improves as he matures is plate discipline. His walk rate of eight percent is only so-so, and it was nearly a 2 percent drop from 2013. If he’s able to walk a little more and strike out a little less—his fan rate was a career-high 18 percent in 2014—then the Mariners may lock up baseball’s best third baseman at a below-market cost.

Either way, this seems to be a fair price given the skyrocketing contract values on the open market.

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Seven Seattle Mariners prospects concluded play at the Arizona Fall League last weekend.

The Mariners sent three position players and four pitchers to the league, which lasted nearly a month-and-a-half and attracted some of the top prospects in baseball.

Among those representing Seattle were Taijuan Walker and D.J. Peterson, two of the top young players in the club’s system.

However, Walker left Arizona early due to personal reasons, as reported by Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com. Peterson struggled at the plate as well, failing to live up to some lofty expectations.

Although the two main attractions may have been disappointing, Seattle did get good AFL performances out of some other players. Here’s how all seven of the Mariners prospects graded out.

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano admirably decided to represent Major League Baseball in the MLB Japan All-Star Series, but the 32-year-old veteran wasn’t exactly rewarded for his commitment.

According to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, the six-time All-Star suffered a fractured right pinkie toe after getting hit by a Yuki Nishi pitch Saturday. The injury will force the Dominican star to miss the remainder of the series.

DiComo is also reporting that Cano could need as much as a month to recover from the ailment:

Bob Dutton of The News Tribune provides more details on Cano’s recovery:

Although the Mariners certainly can’t be thrilled with the fact that their best position player will be on the shelf, Cano is taking a positive approach, per DiComo.

“It’s part of the game, getting hurt,” Cano said. “I’ll be fine.”

In some ways, both Cano and the M’s are fortunate that the injury wasn’t more significant. The career .310 hitter should be back in plenty of time for spring training, which means he doesn’t figure to miss a beat in 2015.

After hitting .314 with 14 homers and 82 RBI while nearly leading Seattle to the playoffs in his first year as a Mariner, Cano’s presence will be integral to the team’s postseason hopes during the upcoming campaign.

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With a top-heavy free-agent class and some obvious holes to fill, the Seattle Mariners figure to be interested in some of the premier players available on the market.

The Mariners need some help on offense to complement a strong pitching staff that nearly led Seattle to the postseason in 2014. According to President Kevin Mather in an interview on Brock and Salk on 710 ESPN, payroll is set to increase, meaning the Mariners will be in the fold for players like Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Yasmany Tomas.

Even if Seattle were to land one of those big names, it may be interested in making more additions. The Mariners have a need at designated hitter, outfielder and potentially the back of the rotation.

Payroll may indeed go up, but Seattle will likely only be able to add one player from the top of the free-agent class. General manager Jack Zduriencik will have to look for some bargains to fill all of Seattle’s needs.

This year’s crop of free agents isn’t very deep, and most of the potential bargains are on the pitching side. None of these four players would be make-or-break signings for Seattle but could be relatively cheap complementary pieces if the Mariners are able to land one of the big names.

Jason Hammel, SP

It would make some sense for the Mariners to add a veteran pitcher to the back of the rotation, particularly if they decide Chris Young won’t be able to repeat his 2014 performance.

Brandon McCarthy could fill that role nicely but will be tough to keep away from the New York Yankees. Hammel could be one of several other potential options who will be a bit cheaper than McCarthy.

Despite a poor second half with the Oakland Athletics, Hammel has some upside. He was outstanding to begin the season with the Chicago Cubs (2.98 ERA, 3.19 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in 17 starts) and has totaled 2.6 WAR or better in three separate seasons.

Hammel has one of the higher fly-ball rates in the league at 38.5 percent, so Safeco Field could help him cut down on home runs. There’s risk here after the ugly stint in Oakland, but that makes Hammel an intriguing buy-low candidate.

One factor that could steer the Mariners away from Hammel is that he could command a multiyear deal when someone like Young may only require one year.

Chris Capuano, SP

If the Mariners really want to save money in the rotation but still bring in a veteran with some value, Capuano is a good candidate.

Following a series of injury setbacks, Capuano has been solid over the past three seasons, posting no worse than a 4.35 ERA or 3.95 FIP. Capuano was a valuable member of the Yankees rotation in the second half and could add depth to a number of thin pitching staffs across the majors.

The Mariners could likely bring in Capuano for one year and no more than $3 million, so the move wouldn’t carry any risk. Even if Capuano doesn’t work out, Seattle would be comfortable knowing it could fall back on Taijuan Walker or Roenis Elias at any time.

Alex Rios, OF

The fact that Rios could be considered a bargain speaks more to the strength of this year’s free-agent class than his value.

Rios had a down year in 2014, posting a .280/.311/.398 line in 131 games with the Texas Rangers. That means Rios is a big risk heading into 2015, but he may also be willing to take a short, cheap deal to rebuild value.

It was fair to expect the 33-year-old to decline, but it seems unlikely that all of Rios’ power should have vanished so suddenly. Anything close to the 3.1 WAR Rios posted in 2013 could help Seattle given its current outfield situation.

Rios posted a 142 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against left-handers even in a down season and owns a .800 OPS against lefties for his career. He could platoon with someone in the corner outfield (depending on what happens with Michael Saunders) or switch over to DH.

Whether the Mariners want to pay around $8 million for what essentially amounts to a platoon player is a different story. Still, with how weak the bottom of the market is, Rios may be the most valuable complementary piece available.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted. 

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With MLB free agency beginning Monday night, the Seattle Mariners can officially start signing players in an attempt to upgrade their offense.

One of the best pitching staffs in baseball wasn’t enough to get the Mariners into the playoffs, as Seattle ranked 11th in runs scored in the American League. General manager Jack Zduriencik has already indicated that payroll will rise in 2015, via Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, meaning the Mariners will be active in free agency and the trade market.

This season’s free-agency class is relatively weak overall, but it does have a number of intriguing players at the top. Seattle will look closely at Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz or Billy Butler to establish a presence in the middle of its lineup. 

The Colorado Rockies unexpectedly extended a qualifying offer to Michael Cuddyer, likely taking one of Seattle’s top targets out of the picture.

Still, the Mariners have a few options who could improve the club enough to make the postseason in 2015. Getting all three of these ideal free-agent pickups isn’t going to happen, but the Mariners would be very happy if any of them landed in Seattle.

Victor Martinez, DH

Any of those big-name sluggers carry their own set of risks, but Martinez is the best overall option for the Mariners at this point.

Martinez was one of the best hitters in the majors last season, posting a 335/.409/.565 line with 32 home runs. He’s 35 years old and will require an expensive three- or four-year contract, but Martinez is good enough to push the Mariners over the top in 2015.

The Mariners have to expect any player to suffer a drop in power production after moving to Safeco Field. Martinez can do more at the plate than just hit home runs, making him an ideal candidate over Cruz and others.

Despite never totaling more than 25 home runs in a year prior to last season, Martinez owns a career 133 wRC+. Martinez has also posted an on-base percentage of over .370 six times in his career, including a .409 clip in 2014. 

Adding that production to Seattle’s lineup in between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager would solidify the middle of the order for the first time in years, at least for the near future. Martinez is a risk, but the window is open for the Mariners to take such a risk. 

Yasmani Tomas, OF

Tomas is the wild card of this year’s free-agency period. He’s going to be expensive, and nobody is going to be able to accurately predict how well he will translate to the major leagues, but he has the potential to shape a franchise for years to come.

While not quite on the same level as Jose Abreu, Tomas does appear to be one of the more talented power hitters to come out of Cuba in recent memory. Ben Badler of Baseball America offered his scouting report on Tomas.

A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne. He has some experience in center field and is a decent runner for his size, but his speed is still below-average and he’s going to be a corner outfielder in pro ball.

On the surface, that sounds like the type of player Seattle has been trying to bring in for years. Tomas will also be just 24 years old next season and his contract will run through his prime, which may be more appealing than banking on an aging power hitter avoiding decline.

Even with the raw tools, Tomas is an unknown, so there’s plenty of risk here too. Tomas is still absolutely worth the right price, particularly if Martinez and others sign elsewhere first.

Brandon McCarthy, SP

The Mariners could roll with the young trio of James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias behind their outstanding top two in the rotation. With no depth behind that, one injury would mean a lot of Erasmo Ramirez starts again, unless Danny Hultzen is fully recovered. 

A more ideal situation would be signing a veteran mid-level starter to take some of the pressure off the young guys (Walker in particular) and add depth. Chris Young would work just fine in that role, but McCarthy could be a higher-upside option who would come relatively cheaply.

McCarthy pitched better last season than his 4.05 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.55 FIP and 2.87 xFIP. He was particularly good after being traded to the New York Yankees midseason, striking out 82 batters in 90.1 innings while walking just 13.

John Harper of the New York Daily News reports that the Yankees had McCarthy change his pitch selection after coming to New York.

On Saturday, GM Brian Cashman said that a study by the club’s analytics department before the trade convinced the Yankees that McCarthy could get back to the success he had enjoyed in previous years if he reincorporated his cutter, a pitch the Diamondbacks instructed him to stop throwing this season.

In addition, McCann went to McCarthy after catching him in Cleveland last week and convinced him to throw his four-seam fastball up in the zone at times as a counter of sorts to his sinker.

That indicates McCarthy may have found the key to his success moving forward, but the Yankees won’t let him go easily. If he doesn’t end up back in New York for whatever reason, McCarthy would be a nice fit in Seattle.

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The Los Angeles Angels made a potentially big move for their future Tuesday by signing promising Cuban prospect Roberto Baldoquin.     

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Angels reportedly inked the 20-year-old middle infielder to a deal that includes an $8 million signing bonus:

While Baldoquin is unlikely to play for Los Angeles during the upcoming 2015 season, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez suggests that this move will give the Angels some options when their current middle infielders hit free agency:

With that said, this signing prevents the Angels from getting involved in bidding wars for big-time international free agents over the next two years, per Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld.com:

This is due to the fact that the collective bargaining agreement places restrictions on teams that sign under-23 international players to contracts, according to Sanchez.

Although the Angels have yet to confirm the deal, Sanchez reports that Baldoquin is thrilled to be part of the organization.

“This is a dream come true,” Baldoquin said. “I’ve made a lot of sacrifices to get to this point. I’m ready for the next part of my journey.”

On the heels of first baseman Jose Abreu having a huge rookie season for the Chicago White Sox in 2014, the Angels are undoubtedly hopeful that they have found the next Cuban success story.

Baldoquin has plenty of work to do before he reaches the big time, but the $8 million signing bonus suggests that L.A. is confident he will eventually reach that point.

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Awful baseball teams tend to deal away veteran talent. Such is common practice in Major League Baseball.

The Seattle Mariners, until recently, fit the bill of one of those awful baseball teams. Only twice did they surpass the 75-win plateau from 2004 to 2013. The M’s, like any other dreadful team in their situation, dealt away most players of worth. Out the door went Cliff Lee, Michael Morse, Ichiro Suzuki, et al.

While Seattle has a recent history of losing trades in spectacular fashion (Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez was a huge blunder), its trades with the Detroit Tigers have all generally gone up in flames.

Starting with the loss Carlos Guillen and winding through the transactions logs all the way to the Doug Fister debacle, here are some of the M’s notable failed trades with the Tigers.

Carlos Guillen

Mariners Acquired: Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez

Tigers Acquired: Carlos Guillen

The history of these lopsided deals can be traced back to Carlos Guillen’s departure from Seattle.

Guillen was a solid, but not spectacular shortstop during his days in the Emerald City. He drove in 211 runs for the team from 1998 to 2003 and hit .264 along the way. Guillen also produced 122 extra base hits over four years as a regular contributor. A nifty feat considering  shortstop is generally an offense-derived position.

Knowing this, you would think the Mariners would have received a return that ranked somewhere in between “good” and “great,” considering they were trading a solid offensive player (and not a shabby defender either) at a premium position not known for its hitting.

The Mariners received minor league pitcher Juan Gonzalez and infielder Ramon Santiago from Detroit.

Upon arriving in Motown, Guillen was a staple of the Tigers’ mid-2000 teams, was a three-time All-Star as a Tiger and garnered MVP votes on two separate occasions. At the peak of his powers in 2006, Guillen was an offensive-minded shortstop who had a WAR of 6.0, posted a .920 OPS with 85 runs batted in and 20 stolen bases.

Also an above-average defender, Guillen was quite the dynamic player in his prime. He would later show his versatility in Motown, moving all over the diamond to accommodate the likes of Brandon Inge and Miguel Cabrera while playing shortstop, third base, first base and left field.

Some of this was done to incorporate better hitters into the lineup, but it was also implemented to lengthen Guillen’s career. Before all of this, Guillen was a key player for the M’s at the turn of the century, appearing in close to 500 games (473 to be exact) from 2000 to 2003.

Back in Seattle, Gonzalez never panned out, and Santiago went back to Detroit. Yes, back to Detroit. The M’s let Santiago leave after he posted a .170 batting average and .482 OPS in Seattle. It can be argued that Santiago never received his chance with the Mariners. Yes, his numbers were exceptionally poor, but he only played in 27 games for Seattle.  

Then Detroit pounced.

It’s one thing to lose a trade spectacularly because the player traded away went on to achieve massive success. It is, however, another thing entirely to have a team trade away a player who flourishes somewhere else, then let one of the key players acquired in return go back to the team that originally traded him.

Basically, the Tigers acquired Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago and a minor leaguer. Then Seattle gave up early on Santiago, who promptly went back to Detroit and became Guillen’s backup no less! In the long run, the Mariners came away with nothing while Detroit eventually had both Guillen and Santiago on payroll. Both players played a part in sending the Tigers to the World Series in 2006—a feat the Mariners have never accomplished.

This deal serves as the poster child example of a number of Mariner trades over the years. The M’s either give up on a player too early or don’t get enough in return. This is true of a number of players dealt to the Tigers. Guillen is part of a long list of players who the M’s shipped out, but who went on to achieve bigger and better things.

Jarrod Washburn

Mariners Acquired: Pitchers Luke French and Mauricio Robles (Minors)

Tigers Acquired: Jarrod Washburn

One player that Seattle didn’t give up on too early—but still failed to receive a proper value for—was Jarrod Washburn.

The M’s signed Washburn from the Angels before 2006. During his Seattle tenure, Washburn never posted an ERA under 4.30 and failed to surpass 10 wins in a single season. In fact, Washburn’s numbers were pretty pedestrian in his time in the Emerald City. Pedestrian, that is, until 2009 when the lefty went 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA in 20 starts. The M’s attempted to sell high on the former Angel, dealing him to the Tigers for Luke French and Mauricio Robles.

This simply wasn’t enough for a dependable innings eater like Washburn. Seattle needed young pitching, seeing as they were relying on Ian Snell and Chris Jakubauskas to pitch a major amount of innings, but French and Robles never panned out.

At the time of the trade, French and Robles weren’t elite prospects, but considering Washburn’s value, you feel like the Mariners could have gotten more from the trade. Despite Washburn struggling immensely in Motown, this still must be looked at as a win for the Tigers and, as a result, a loss for the Mariners. Seattle received two pitchers who didn’t have tremendous upsides when they could have received much more. French’s WAR over the course of his Seattle tenure was 0.1. Robles never reached the big leagues in a Mariners uniform.

Doug Fister

Mariners Acquired: Pitchers Charlie Furbush and Chance Ruffin, minor league third baseman Francisco Rodriguez and outfielder Casper Wells

Tigers Acquired: Doug Fister and relief pitcher David Pauley

The Mariners worst fleecing at the hands of the Tigers occurred at the 2011 MLB trade deadline when the M’s dealt Doug Fister to Detroit.

At the time, the trade was met with widespread shrugs. It turned out to be one of the most lopsided deals in recent history.

Fister has improved every single year since leaving the Mariners, starting off with a stretch run in 2011 when the ex-Mariner posted an 8-1 record with a 1.79 ERA and a highly absurd 57-5 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. Every season since, Fister’s WAR has inexplicably gone up, rising to 3.3 in 2012, 4.1 in 2013 and 4.5 in 2014. During the pitcher’s time in Detroit, he compiled 32 wins in two and a half seasons, nearly three times as many as he had over the same span in Seattle.  

What was the Mariners’ return for a pitcher who was widely perceived as one of the best 20 players at his position?

Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, minor leaguer Francisco Martinez and a player to be named later (Chance Ruffin). At first, the return seemed substantial. Wells and Furbush showed promise in limited action for the Tigers, while Martinez and Ruffin were both highly regarded prospects. Baseball America rated Martinez as the team’s fourth best prospect at the time, while Ruffin (a former first-round pick) was seventh. Both players ranked higher than Drew Smyly and Avisail Garcia.

That was 2011. This is 2014. The Mariners would go on to lose the trade in an absurd fashion. Fister has gone on to great success, while the M’s effectively acquired Furbush—a pitcher who has parlayed his career into that of a successful reliever with ERAs of 2.72, 3.74 and 3.61 in the last three seasons. Other than that, the players acquired failed to stick.

Wells never got a chance to claim a full-time job as he was pushed out of an overcrowded Seattle outfield. To further the point, Wells hit .126 with a .334 OPS and had one singular RBI in 53 games for three different major league teams in 2013. None of them included the Mariners.

The highest rated prospect in the deal (Martinez) had a mixed bag of results during his time in the Mariners’ organization. He got off to a solid start, hitting .310 in 33 games in Double-A Jackson before falling back to earth with a .227 batting average the next year for the same team. 2013 saw his Double-A average plummet further to .206. Seattle soon moved on from Martinez and dealt him to (you guessed it) Detroit. Is this another Ramon Santiago in the making? Time will tell.

Elsewhere in the trade, Ruffin gave up 16 runs in 22 innings for Seattle on the way to a 5.70 career ERA as a Mariner. He recently retired from baseball.

Seattle was showed up in its attempt to acquire anything of value for Fister. The Mariners did receive Furbush for their troubles, but the forgotten wrinkle of the trade is that Seattle gave up reliever David Pauley in the transaction. Pauley was in the midst of an extremely effective season as a reliever, posting a 2.15 ERA in 54.1 innings pitched.

Thanks to Furbush’s success, the team has essentially lost Fister and acquired a younger version of David Pauley.

The moral of the story here is that Mariners’ general manager Jack Zduriencik probably shouldn’t seriously consider any trade offer from his Tigers counterpart Dave Dombrowski—unless  he wants to risk trading Robinson Cano for some catching gear.

All stats courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com/ unless otherwise noted.

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Prior to a year in which they are expected to contend, the Seattle Mariners have a few key decisions to make during the offseason.

Seattle finds itself in the rare position of trying to win now rather than building toward the future. The last two times the Mariners were coming off a winning season (2007 and 2009), they made disastrous signings and trades that resulted in poor records the following year.

While the Mariners won’t lose too much from their 2014 roster, they do need a few upgrades to be a playoff team in 2015. Seattle needs a better offense and will have to think carefully about a few free agents or trades over the winter.

Most of the Mariners’ biggest decisions this offseason will revolve around the offense, but Jack Zduriencik and Company will look carefully at the entire roster to try and build a contending team.

What to Do with Michael Saunders

The biggest news coming out of Seattle this offseason has revolved around Saunders.

At the Mariners’ wrap-up press conference, both Zduriencik and manager Lloyd McClendon claimed that Saunders needed to do more to keep himself healthy over the course of the season, via Colin O’Keefe of Lookout Landing. Then, in an interview with 1090 The Fan (via CBS Seattle), Saunders’ agent said that he was “frustrated” with the comments and that the team lacked communication with his client.

The relationship between the Mariners and Saunders is fractured, meaning the team will have a big decision to make regarding him this offseason. Saunders is the most talented outfielder on the team and put up a 1.9 WAR in just 78 games but has been injured far too often during his career.

Seattle could choose to move in a different direction and try to trade Saunders, although that could end up being a huge mistake with little outfield depth behind him. The Mariners also may look for a reliable backup to start in place of Saunders two or three times per week in order to keep him off the disabled list.

Either way, the Mariners must decide what Saunders’ future role on the team will look like.

Which Risky Free-Agent Slugger Is Worth It?

Club president Kevin Mather told 710 ESPN that payroll will increase in 2015. That means the Mariners will look at some free-agent signings likely to upgrade the designated hitter position, which produced all of minus-2.1 WAR in 2014.

While they are far from the only options, the Mariners will be connected with three free agents throughout the offseason: Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Billy Butler—if the Kansas City Royals decline his $12.5 million option.

All three could help the Mariners, but they each carry a significant risk.

Martinez is about to turn 36 (Dec.) and will be expensive after coming off the best offensive season of his career. Any suitor would have to expect Martinez’s numbers to trend downward, but he could still be a huge factor in the middle of Seattle’s lineup by just matching his career 125 wRC+ over the next couple of seasons.

Cruz will turn 35 next year and will also be looking for a multiyear contract. While Cruz won’t hit 40 home runs in Seattle and his skill set may be more prone to decline than Martinez’s, he could help the Mariners for at least the next two years.

Butler is coming off the worst season of any of the three but has not yet turned 29. He will be cheaper than the other two and might be worth a flier to see if he can return to his 2009-2013 form, when he posted no worse than a 117 wRC+.

Any one of those three could be the missing piece to Seattle’s lineup, but they all could backfire down the road.

How Much Outfield Help Do the Mariners Need?

The Mariners currently have the pieces to form a starting outfield, but all three potential members have some questions heading into 2015.

Saunders’ future in Seattle is a complete question mark at this point. Even if he enters the season as the starting right fielder, the Mariners will need a capable backup in case Saunders heads to the disabled list again.

Who knows if the Mariners will have the Dustin Ackley of the first half (76 wRC+) or the second half (123 wRC+)? Even Austin Jackson will be monitored closely into next season after struggling mightily since coming to Seattle at the trade deadline.

Assuming Chris Denorfia and Endy Chavez are gone, the Mariners will need outfield depth, but they must decide what type of player to bring in. Seattle could choose to bring in a fourth outfielder-type who could start if needed or target a bigger name like Melky Cabrera.

Is the Rotation Set?

Much like with the outfield, the Mariners could form a starting rotation with the current roster in 2015 but may decide to add some depth.

Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are locked in at the top of the rotation, while James Paxton looks very good through his first 17 career starts. As it stands now, Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias would occupy the last two rotation spots.

Both have great potential, but that’s asking a lot out of two young pitchers, particularly the 22-year-old Walker. Paxton, Walker and Elias also have some health concerns, so the Mariners will likely decide to add some depth unless they trust Erasmo Ramirez to fill in. 

The easiest decision for the Mariners to make would be to bring back Chris Young on a short incentive-laden deal, which would be beneficial for both parties. If Young ends up elsewhere, Seattle will have to choose between moving forward with what it has or adding a mid-level starter.

Who Are the Trade Chips?

With a relatively weak market, the Mariners may have to make some trades to add offense. They must decide what positions are strong enough to trade assets from while also balancing the present and future.

One position the Mariners will have to make a decision at is shortstop. Both Brad Miller and Chris Taylor received playing time last year, while the 21-year-old Ketel Marte has risen fast through the minors and looks to have some value.

The Mariners may be content to let Miller and Taylor battle for playing time out of spring training. If they do commit to one (likely Miller), the other could end up on the trading block.

Another position Seattle has some depth at is relief pitcher. While having a shutdown bullpen was a big part of the Mariners’ success in 2014, trading someone whose value is currently at a peak like Brandon Maurer for some offense could be worth it.

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Coming off of an 87-75 season, the Seattle Mariners are set up to make a run at the postseason in 2015.

Seattle retains the top two members of an outstanding starting rotation that could be even greater soon if some young pitchers continue to develop. Offensively, the Mariners have a strong core in Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager to build around and become contenders.

However, the Mariners have a few needs they need to address if they are to get over the hump and make the postseason for the first time since 2001. With some free-agent options, Mariners president Kevin Mather told 710 ESPN Seattle that payroll would increase next season.

Upgrading anywhere would obviously help, but the Mariners have four needs to focus on over the offseason.

4. Left-handed Reliever

Seattle’s pitching success was not just due to its rotation, as the Mariners’ bullpen posted the best ERA in the majors. Seven of the eight main relievers will be back for 2015, with Carson Smith also looking ready for the majors.

The only member of the bullpen who is a free agent is Joe Beimel. Beimel far exceeded expectations at 37 years old, posting a 2.20 ERA (4.18 FIP) in 55 games.

While Beimel was probably a bit fortunate to post such a low ERA given his peripherals, he was one of only two left-handers in the Seattle bullpen. If Beimel leaves, the only lefty remaining will be Charlie Furbush.

Seattle’s bullpen might have enough talent to be fine with only one left-hander, so signing another isn’t an absolute must. Still, bringing in another wouldn’t hurt.

The free-agent class doesn’t offer much other than Andrew Miller and Zach Duke, who are going to command big contracts. Giving Beimel another one-year deal makes as much sense as anything.

3. Starting pitcher

As the roster currently stands, the Mariners could form a strong starting rotation to open 2015. Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias will all be returning to Seattle, giving the Mariners a staff with plenty of upside.

However, that’s placing a lot of the club’s potential success in the hands of a trio of very young pitchers. Paxton was injured for much of 2014, while Walker also suffered a shoulder injury and at times didn’t look quite ready for the major leagues when he was healthy.

The Mariners discovered Elias, who looks to be a solid back-end starter, as a result of the injuries, but there are some concerns about a flexor bundle strain he picked up in the last start of his season.

Without being completely necessary to the club’s success, it would make sense for the Mariners to target a mid-level starter to add some depth. Re-signing Chris Young would make sense, as he is a perfect fit in Seattle, and the Mariners would have either Walker or Elias to replace Young should he get injured or show signs of regression.

If Young ends up somewhere else for whatever reason, a relatively cheap addition like Brandon McCarthy would be a good option.

2. Outfield

The Mariners’ starting outfield appears to be set for Opening Day 2015 with Austin Jackson, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders. However, all three have question marks heading into the season.

Saunders carries the biggest risk. When healthy, Saunders is one of Seattle’s most productive players, but he isn’t shedding the “injury prone” label anytime soon after appearing in only 78 games in 2014.

General manager Jack Zduriencik echoed that sentiment in an interview with 1090 The Fan’s The Steve Sandmeyer Show (h/t Lookout Landing):

I think the biggest challenge with Michael has been trying to keep him healthy. I think he had 230-some at-bats this year, through the course of the season when you were hoping he’d have 500-600. I think that’s been the issue, not only this year but in years gone by so, the challenge for Michael is to prepare himself to be able to play a complete season. Now, some injuries are freak injuries—other injuries are injuries that are, you know, could they have been prevented and I think that’s something for Michael to answer. But he’s a talented player, he’s a very, very nice young man and, do I hope Michael’s a part of this thing? Of course I do. But it’s up to Michael to put himself in a position where he can play through the course of a full season.

That seems to indicate that the Mariners will need a strong fourth outfielder behind Saunders. Seattle hoped to get that when they traded for Chris Denorfia at the trade deadline, but he struggled over the last two months of the season.

The Mariners would be quite happy if Ackley continued the production he put up in the second half of 2014, but he has to prove he can sustain it long-term. Even Jackson isn’t a certainty after struggling since the trade deadline, but a two-month slump shouldn’t cause him to lose the center field job to start 2015.

Unless Seattle believes Stefen Romero or Julio Morban is ready to contribute in the majors, it needs to add some outfield depth in the offseason.

1. Designated Hitter/First Base

Zduriencik didn’t hide his plans for the offseason, via Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune:

We will explore every opportunity out there.I think we’ll be reasonably aggressive in trying to do something to try to add an offensive piece or two. Where all of this ends up, none of us knows. We’ll enter the free-agent scenario, and (we’ll) see what’s available on the trade market. We will be pretty aggressive in trying to add to this ballclub.

Looking at current roster construction, that offensive piece needs to be either a designated hitter or first baseman. Logan Morrison has done enough to earn the starting job at one of those positions (likely first), but the Mariners desperately need a middle-of-the-order bat to fill the other.

Seattle is going to be connected with names like Nelson Cruz, Victor Martinez and Billy Butler all offseason long. All of those players are risky and will likely be overpaid, but the Mariners might be in a position to take a long-term risk if it means getting better over the next year or two.

The Mariners are also going to take a long look at Kendrys Morales, but it’s probably time for both parties to move in another direction. If Seattle can add the right offensive piece, they will make a serious run at the postseason in 2015.

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