Tag: AL West

Seattle Mariners: An Early Free Agency and Offseason Primer

The Seattle Mariners are focused on a September push to the playoffs but also have a bright future to look forward to in 2015 and beyond.

After five months, the Mariners have a strong idea of what their strengths and weaknesses are heading into the offseason. As exciting as the current chase for a wild-card spot is, the Mariners could be even better next season with a couple of moves in free agency.

General manager Jack Zduriencik did a nice job of balancing Seattle’s present and future at the trade deadline and again will be faced with a similar circumstance during the offseason. This season’s unexpected run set the Mariners up nicely for 2015, so a couple of win-now moves would not be surprising.

The club’s performance in September, and potentially October, will impact the offseason, but there are already a few storylines shaping up for the winter.

 

Free Agents

The core will be intact for 2015, but the Mariners still have a few players who are due to enter free agency:

  • Kendrys Morales, DH
  • Corey Hart, DH
  • Chris Denorfia, OF
  • Chris Young, SP
  • Franklin Gutierrez, OF
  • Endy Chavez, OF

 

That list is assuming the Mariners exercise a $7 million team option on Hisashi Iwakuma, which seems certain to happen.

Hart and Chavez are the most likely to be gone, while Gutierrez probably won’t be ready to return to return to the majors at all due to his health situation. The Mariners will have some interesting choices to make regarding the other three players.

September will be most critical for Morales, as he will have to finish strong to get anywhere near the amount of money he was offered last offseason.  

If Morales continues to hit relatively well (106 wRC+ in August), the Mariners will look to bring him back, but Morales didn’t seem interested in signing with Seattle last offseason, and the cost may be too high.

Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune mentions that the Mariners will at least look at bringing Morales back in 2015. 

Attempting to retain Young would make sense for both parties. Young was built for Safeco Field, while Taijuan Walker doesn’t appear as ready for the majors as the Mariners would have hoped at this point. James Paxton has some health concerns—meaning the team could use the veteran depth.

The Mariners will be gambling on Young avoiding regression and his shoulder holding up, but he’s been consistently strong in 2013. A short, incentive-laden contract would be ideal.

To the point about Young’s health, the 35-year-old says he’s been pain free since undergoing surgery to fix thoracic outlet syndrome last June, via Jim Caple of ESPN.com.

It’s been pain free. It’s been a big blessing for me and I don’t take it for granted. I was at a point where I was basically ready to walk away. ‘I’ve done what I can and my shoulder just is not meant for this.’ And so, after having surgery, I woke up and I knew the pain was gone. Ever since, it’s just continued to get better and better.

 

Finding Help at First Base and Designated Hitter

The Mariners have received little production at the plate from either position until the last few weeks, which needs to change in 2015. Help could be on the way soon from the minors, but the Mariners may want to make some moves that focus on the present rather than the future.

One decision the Mariners will have to make is figuring out where Logan Morrison fits into their plans as he heads into an arbitration year. Morrison ran an unfortunate .211 BABIP in July but has rebounded with a .352/.403/.465 line since.

Morrison would be a fine placeholder until D.J. Peterson is ready, unless a better option presents itself.  

It seems unlikely at this point that Morales will be coming back. September will provide a brief look at Ji-Man Choi, who could DH or split time with Morrison at first, but the Mariners may want to look for more experienced hitters.

However, the free agent class doesn’t look too promising. Many of the big-name free agent first basemen are well into their 30s. Victor Martinez appears to be the best designated hitter available but will be expensive.  

 

Potential Trade Chips

The Mariners used a valuable trade community in Nick Franklin to fill a need with Austin Jackson on July 31. Some similar moves could be on the way in the offseason.

Last winter, the Mariners flipped Carter Capps, a young reliever with high upside, for offensive help in Morrison. A similar move could be coming in the offseason, as the Mariners have several high-upside relievers, like Brandon Maurer, who could be available.  

The team will also have to make a decision at shortstop between Chris Taylor and Brad Miller. Having one sit in Triple-A long-term isn’t going to help the club, and either one could land a decent return.

For now, the Mariners appear to be favoring Taylor, but they will have a better read on him after another full month in the majors.

If the Mariners don’t make a trade for a first basemen or designated hitter, they could be in the market for outfield help, particularly if Denorfia leaves.

Seattle’s outfield looks decent heading into 2015, but it depends on Dustin Ackley sustaining his current hot streak and Michael Saunders staying healthy. Both things could be impacted in September.  

 

Possible Contract Extensions

Instead of spending a large amount on free agents, the Mariners may look to work on contract extensions for Hisashi Iwakuma and Kyle Seager.

Iwakuma has pitched like an ace for the past two seasons and could make upwards of $20 million if he hits free agency in 2016, so it would be wise for the Mariners to work on an extension shortly after the season ends. He signed a two-year extension following the 2012 season with the option for the third year.

Another three-year deal would be perfect as Iwakuma turns 34 next season, but he may want to test free agency.  

Following his last extension, Iwakuma said he was pleased to be in Seattle, which means there could be interest from both sides to get another deal done, via Greg Johns of MLB.com:

“First and foremost, I am very happy with how the Seattle Mariners treated me throughout the season and for their evaluation in me as a starter…My family was a big factor in our decision [and] we are very happy and satisfied with Seattle, and we look forward to staying for at least two years.”

Seager ranks ninth in the majors in WAR and is a critical part of Seattle’s core, so it’s time to think about locking him up long-term. The Mariners have more time with Seager, as he has three arbitration years remaining, but the price could go up if they wait another year or two.

Buying out those arbitration years will be more expensive over the next three seasons, but if the Mariners sign him for a few years beyond that it will save them money long-term.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted. 

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Hisashi Iwakuma, Chris Young Are Unsung Heroes of Mariners’ Rapid 2014 Rise

Felix Hernandez casts a long shadow over opposing batters and his teammates. So it goes when you’re baseball royalty.

Two of King Felix’s Seattle Mariners rotation-mates, though, deserve a moment in the sun.

Entering play Tuesday, the 71-59 Mariners hold a half-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for the second wild-card spot, and unheralded hurlers Chris Young and Hisashi Iwakuma have more than pitched in.

Iwakuma, 33, made the All-Star team in 2013 but began this season on the disabled list with a torn tendon in his middle finger.

He’s long since put the injury behind him and is in the midst of another stellar campaign. His 2.83 ERA and 0.98 WHIP would qualify for No. 1 status on most clubs.

In fact, as ESPN.com‘s Katie Sharp argues, the Japanese import is a de facto second ace:

It’s hard to imagine where the Mariners would be without their dynamic duo of Iwakuma and Hernandez at the top of the rotation. The playoffs would certainly be a pipe dream. But thanks to the combination of baseball’s most anonymous ace (Iwakuma) and most deserving ace (Hernandez), Seattle is now in prime position to give its fans something besides football to cheer about in October.

Here’s another way of looking at how quietly dominant Iwakuma has been: He and Hernandez are on pace to become just the third duo in the live-ball era to finish the season with sub-1.00 WHIPs, per MLB.com‘s Roger Schlueter.

The other pairs? Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez on the 2002 Boston Red Sox, and Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale on the 1964 Los Angeles Dodgers.

Pretty decent company.

Young, 35, is emerging as one of baseball’s best comeback stories. Lingering shoulder issues that ultimately required surgery limited him to just nine minor league starts in the Washington Nationals system last season.

His 6.81 ERA in those minor league starts did not portend great things.

But after inking a one-year deal with Seattle this spring, the right-hander has bounced back in a big way. His 150.1 innings pitched speak to a pitcher who’s healthy. And his 12-6 record and 3.17 ERA are pleasant surprises.

Pitching, indeed, has been Seattle’s calling card. Thanks to a stable of quality arms—and to Safeco Field, the most pitcher-friendly yard in baseball, per ESPN.com—the M’s are this season’s most unexpected success story.

The bats can’t be dismissed completely. Robinson Cano is living up to his 10-year, $240 million contract, and All-Star third baseman Kyle Seager has become a grind-it-out fan favorite.

The Mariners’ improbable success, though, emanates from the mound. As of Monday, the M’s own the best team ERA (2.95) and lowest opponents’ batting average (.225) in MLB.

“We’ve got it all,” catcher Mike Zunino told Jerry Brewer of The Seattle Times. “We have guys with great curveballs, great cutters, great sliders, guys with plus fastballs. We have the whole spectrum covered. To have that much talent, we can pretty much match up with any lineup.”

Count manager Lloyd McClendon among the early believers. “I think we have shutdown pitching,” McClendon told Brewer at the outset of spring training.

Still, Seattle’s skipper recently admitted to Brewer, “I can’t say I knew we’d be this good.”

If the Mariners are going to keep being this good, and insert themselves squarely into the suddenly murky American League playoff picture, they’ll need King Felix and his long shadow. 

Just as essentially, though, they’ll need the guys laboring in relative anonymity. Guys like Young and Iwakuma, who might soon get a chance to shine under the bright lights of October.

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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How the Seattle Mariners Built Their Historically Good Bullpen

Just one season after finishing 31st in ERA, the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen has been one of the best in the majors in 2014.

Seattle’s relievers own a collective 2.49 ERA, trailing only the San Diego Padres for the top spot in the league. If they finish the year with that number, the Mariners will have posted the second-best bullpen ERA of any American League club in the designated hitter era, trailing only the 2.35 put up by the 1990 Oakland Athletics.

That impressive number includes a shaky start to the season, but Gary Hill of 710 ESPN points out Seattle has been just about untouchable since June 1.

ERA can be misleading at times, particularly for relievers, but the Mariners’ bullpen ranks first in the AL in FIP, xFIP and opponent’s average. A bit of regression is to be expected (and there has been some over the past week), but there’s no denying the group has put together a historic season.

So how did a terrible Seattle bullpen in 2013 rise so far in just one season?

Through a combination of drafting and previous deadline deals as sellers, the Mariners have amassed a collection of relievers who throw hard. Every member of the bullpen with the exception of lefties Joe Beimel and Charlie Furbush regularly touches the mid-90s or above.

Whether that’s something the organization specifically focuses on with relievers or if it’s just a reflection of a trend around the league, it’s contributed to the Mariners’ dominance.

Pitchers certainly don’t have to throw hard to be successful, but those who can hit the high-90s typically have more upside and strikeout potential. That’s reflected in the strikeout rate of 24.2 percent put up by Seattle’s bullpen, second in the AL to the New York Yankees.

With that much upside, the Mariners’ bullpen can go on some pretty incredible runs when everybody is clicking. Announcer Aaron Goldsmith highlights such a run earlier in August:

Some offseason additions and tweaks early in the season set the Mariners up well for their historic run. The team made two bullpen moves before spring training, adding veterans Beimel and Fernando Rodney to a relatively young group.

As frustrating as Rodney can be, he’s successfully solidified what was a shaky closer position in 2013. Locking down the back end has helped everything else slide into place, as manager Lloyd McClendon explained to Greg Johns of MLB.com.

“Everybody else was able to be slotted into the proper roles where they weren’t overexposed or overused. As a result, they’ve been fantastic. Now did I think they were going to be this good? This is historical type of stuff and I didn’t expect that. It’s been pretty special to watch.”    

The first big in-season move was to finally jettison Hector Noesi on April 3 and call up rookie Dominic Leone straight from Double-A. That left the Mariners without a typical long-relief or mop-up man, but they haven’t really needed one since the end of April.

Leone had far more upside and has rewarded the team for the decision. The 22-year-old has a 2.65 ERA (3.22 FIP) and is fifth among AL rookie relievers in strikeout rate.

The Seattle bullpen was already performing superbly by late June, but transitioning Brandon Maurer from the bullpen added another weapon to get the job done in any situation. Maurer looks like a completely different pitcher coming out of the bullpen and has allowed just five runs in 23.2 innings of relief.

A big factor in Seattle’s run has been that some of the returning faces have pitched to their full potential. In particular, Tom Wilhelmsen and Danny Farquhar have thrived in new roles after struggling to different degrees as closers in 2013.

Wilhelmsen has arguably been the most important member of the bullpen, as his versatility has provided tremendous value for the Mariners. He can be counted on in a critical late-game situation but has also been successful in longer outings of three or more innings and even made a spot start on July 10.

The key for Wilhelmsen has always been commanding his curveball, and he’s had a good feel for the pitch all season long. Wilhelmsen’s walks are down and his strikeouts are up, helping his ERA tumble nearly two points to 2.15 (3.73 FIP) in 2014.

Farquhar’s 1.86 FIP and 34.7 percent strikeout rate indicate he was unfortunate to have an ERA over four a year ago and his mark of 2.68 (2.43 FIP) in 2014 is far closer to his true talent level. FanGraphs indicated Farquhar is throwing his devastating cutter more often this season and is again striking out over 10 batters per nine innings.

Yoervis Medina has also improved his command from a year ago while shoring up some inconsistencies. Like Wilhelmsen, Medina’s been able to control his breaking pitches for much of the year and has decreased both his walk rate and ERA.

The member of the current bullpen who has struggled the most this season is Furbush, which seems like it would hurt the Mariners a lot more as he is one of only two left-handers available. However, Beimel (1.19 ERA, 3.35 FIP) has unexpectedly been able to pick up the slack, and Furbush has the fewest innings of any reliever (apart from Maurer) as a result. 

Credit must also go to McClendon for doing an outstanding job of managing the group. Fluid roles past the closer and an avoidance of overmanaging have helped the bullpen thrive.  

Finally, the Mariners’ strong starting rotation has helped the bullpen be successful. Seattle has tossed the third-fewest relief innings in the AL, keeping everyone available daily and fresh for the stretch run.

Seattle relievers don’t walk many (15.7 K-BB percentage, second in AL) and don’t allow many home runs (0.52 HR/9, first in AL). Those two numbers might be the most important indicators of success for a bullpen, so it’s not surprising to see the Mariners near the top in ERA.

The result is that McClendon can turn to a number of rested options who have proven themselves capable of shutting down the opponent in any situation. Beimel talked about the importance of such depth, via Johns of MLB.com.

“I’ve never been a part of a bullpen like this. Every single guy out there can get the job done, and that’s just fun to watch.”

A combination of potential, managing, a strong rotation and luck has helped Seattle relievers put up historic numbers. The Mariners’ rotation makes them dangerous in a potential postseason appearance, but a historic bullpen could be a huge factor in taking them there.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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Matt Shoemaker Giving Angels Some Hope After Devastating Garrett Richards Injury

The Los Angeles Angels suffered a potentially crushing blow Wednesday night when they lost ace Garrett Richards for the next six to nine months with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee.

Richards’ injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Angels, who currently hold a two-game lead over the Oakland A’s in the American League West with an MLB-best 76-50 overall record. With the right-hander sidelined for the rest of the season, the Angels’ rotation suddenly is much less threatening, especially in the context of a five- or seven-game playoff series.

However, rookie Matt Shoemaker did his best to ease those concerns Thursday night, guiding the Angels to a 2-0 victory and four-game road sweep of the Boston Red Sox.

The outing arguably was Shoemaker’s best of the season, as he no-hit the Red Sox through 6.2 innings before finishing with one hit allowed over 7.2 scoreless frames. The 27-year-old right-hander struck out nine batters and walked one in the game, throwing 79 of 116 pitches for strikes.

Manager Mike Scioscia offered high praise for Shoemaker following the game (via Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com):

He goes out there with his stuff, and he thinks his stuff will get hitters out. And he really has the confidence that it is. With that composure he has, and that poise, it gives him a sense of confidence where he’s not going to be intimidated. He’s not afraid to fail. He trusts what he can do, and he’s having a terrific season for us.

After picking up his 12th win of the season, Shoemaker, who signed for $10,000 in 2008 after going undrafted out of Eastern Michigan University, is now tied with Masahiro Tanaka for the major league lead among rookies, and he also sports an impressive 3.56 ERA and 102-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 103.2 innings.

Specifically, Shoemaker has been rolling since the All-Star break, with a 5-2 record, 2.25 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 40-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 40 innings. He’s allowed just four home runs during that span while holding opposing hitters to a .190 batting average.

Furthermore, a deeper dive into the right-hander’s numbers this season, particularly his 3.43 FIP and 3.13 xFIP compared to his 3.56 ERA, reveals that his success is for real rather than rooted in luck.

Shoemaker’s 1.1 HR/9 is right in line with the 1.1 HR/9 he posted over seven seasons in the minor leagues, and neither his BABIP (.297) nor strand rate (74.4 percent) suggests he’ll endure a significant regression. His 1.65 BB/9 may seem unsustainable compared to his 2.3 BB/9 in the minor leagues, but it’s worth noting that Shoemaker posted a 1.4 BB/9 over 184.1 innings at Triple-A Salt Lake in 2013.

So what’s made Shoemaker so successful this season?

For starters, the right-hander boasts three major league-quality pitches in a four-seam fastball, slider and splitter, and he’s thrown each of them between 22 and 25 percent of the time this season.

Shoemaker averages 91.43 mph with his fastball, which is roughly league-average velocity, but the pitch features 10.46 inches of vertical movement, which ranks 28th among all starters who’ve thrown at least 200 four-seamers this season, per Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboard. Meanwhile, opposing hitters generally have struggled against the pitch, as they’re batting just .240 with a .230 BABIP.

At the same time, Shoemaker’s fastball is arguably his least effective pitch, as he’s posted a rough 39.6 percent ball rate—compared to a 27.57 percent strike rate—this season while allowing opposing hitters to slug .453 with four home runs.

Shoemaker’s slider represents his second-best offering, registering in the 81-82 mph range with good depth (2.31 inches of vertical movement, to be exact). He’s throwing it 28 percent of the time to right-handed batters this season, who are collectively batting .222 with one home run and a 38.75 percent whiff/swing rate, per the PITCHf/x leaderboard.

That brings us to Shoemaker’s splitter, which is regarded as one of the best in the major leagues and undoubtedly the right-hander’s best offering.

Shoemaker’s splitter averages 6.03 inches of horizontal movement, tying him with Charlie Morton for the 13th-best among big league starters. However, it’s the pitch’s additional 3.74 inches of vertical movement, which ranks eighth in the major leagues, that make it special.

While Shoemaker’s fastball command can vary, he has proved to be adept at consistently locating his splitter down in the zone. It’s the reason why opposing hitters are swinging at it 63.35 percent of the time this season, the third-highest swing rate behind Tanaka and Alex Cobb, and whiffing on 46.75 percent of those swings.

Unsurprisingly, Shoemaker’s splitter is his go-to pitch with two strikes, as he’s throwing it 54 percent and 44 percent of the time to right- and left-handed batters, respectively. Overall, opposing hitters are batting just .147 with 60 strikeouts against the pitch.

Shoemaker’s inconsistent command of an underwhelming fastball normally would be disconcerting. However, with a pair of standout off-speed pitches—the splitter is nearly a double-plus—that break in different directions within the same velocity band, the right-hander has been able to offset some of those fastball-related issues. More importantly, both offerings have helped him to turn over lineups multiple times in a given outing, which in turn has allowed him to work deeper into games.

None of the Angels’ pitchers can fill Richards’ shoes in terms of his stuff and success. But with a playoff berth on the line, it goes without saying that the club will need its remaining starters to step up in his absence.

While Shoemaker certainly has pitched like an ace over the last two months, it’s still unreasonable to think that the 27-year-old rookie can be the savior of the Angels’ rotation—at least any more than he has been.

However, with continued success, Shoemaker should help take some of the pressure off the team’s other starters, specifically veterans Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, over the remainder of the regular season.

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3 Prospects Seattle Mariners Will Promote in September

For the past several seasons, expanded September rosters have provided the Seattle Mariners with a chance to look toward the future.

Things are a little different in 2014. The Mariners are firmly in contention for a playoff spot, meaning they will be focusing on the present rather than giving playing time to prospects.

Still, the Mariners have a number of intriguing options in Triple-A Tacoma who could help the club down the stretch. General manager Jack Zduriencik did a good job of minimizing Seattle’s weaknesses at the trade deadline, but there are still a couple of holes that September call-ups could fill.

Familiar faces like Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero will be among those who join the team on September 1, but expect these three prospects to make their major league debuts during the month.

 

Ji-Man Choi, 1B

As he is currently on the 40-man roster, Ji-Man Choi is likely to get a shot in the majors next month. The 23-year-old has risen fast over the past three years and has advanced plate-approach skills that could potentially provide a boost off the bench.

Choi’s best skill is his discipline, as he has posted a walk rate of 11.5 percent or higher at every minor league level, while his strikeout rates have not exceeded 15 percent since 2012. After serving a 50-game suspension earlier in the year, Choi has hit .272/.362/.344 with Triple-A Tacoma.

While he doesn’t offer much in the way of home run power, Choi collected 34 doubles between two levels just a season ago. Choi’s ability to take walks and get extra-base hits will at least get him a look this September and could put him in the running for playing time at first base in 2015 until D.J. Peterson is ready.

Smoak and Montero will presumably be ahead of Choi on the depth chart, so he will probably be used sparingly off the bench. However, it might be worth giving Choi some starts at designated hitter just to see if he can provide any upgrade.

Kendrys Morales has been better over the past week but still owns just a .607 OPS since coming to Seattle on July 24. Choi showed only a slight platoon split in the minors, according to Minor League Central, so he could start to eat into Morales’ playing time against left-handed pitching should Morales begin to slump again.

 

Ty Kelly, INF

Kelly has had his second consecutive strong season at Triple-A Tacoma and should finally be rewarded for it on September 1.

With Willie Bloomquist out for the rest of the year due to arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, the Mariners are currently short on infield depth. Kelly has the versatility to replace Bloomquist on the bench, as he can play second and third base well, in addition to the outfield in an emergency.

Kelly’s bat might be able to provide something as well, as he hit .269/.389/.434 with 15 home runs at Triple-A Tacoma this season.

Choi is getting praise for his plate approach, but Kelly’s is arguably better. Kelly has a walk rate of 16.0 percent this season and has walked more than he’s struck out in 498 minor league games.

Kelly talked with Colin O’Keefe of Lookout Landing about his plate approach, which is certainly different than many others at his level, saying:

It all starts with a situation, and that can be your first at-bat of the game. You’ve never seen the guy and you want to see some pitches, and see what kind of off-speed pitches he has. There’s nothing worse than going into an at-bat, swinging at the first pitch and then your next at-bat you go up there and all you see there are two fastballs on the outside corner that you don’t swing at—and then throws his strikeout pitch and you have no idea what it looks like. You end up flailing at a slider in the dirt.

As a switch-hitter with patience and versatility, Kelly has all the tools to be a very useful bench player. Back on July 22, Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs projected Kelly to have the highest rest-of-season WAR among all prospects in baseball.

In second place on that list was Chris Taylor, who has put up 0.7 WAR in 21 games since being promoted.  

The only possible hurdle to Kelly’s promotion is that he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, but the Mariners have some flexibility. They could transfer Bloomquist or Corey Hart to the 60-day disabled list or designate a reliever for assignment if needed.

Kelly is obviously not going to start over Robinson Cano or Kyle Seager, but he’s exactly the kind of bench piece Seattle needs down the stretch.

 

Carson Smith, RP

Seattle’s bullpen doesn’t exactly need any upgrades, but just about every team across the majors will call up relief depth in September. The clear choice for the Mariners is right-hander Carson Smith, who has put up big numbers in the minors and looks ready for major league action.

After destroying Double-A in 2013, Smith has slowed down a bit, but he has still been impressive in Triple-A Tacoma. Smith has a 3.00 ERA (3.00 FIP) with exactly a strikeout per inning and nine saves this year.

Smith has an unconventional sidearm delivery that generates a ton of movement and makes it tough for right-handers, who posted just a .530 OPS against him in the minors, according to Minor League Central. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he has a plus slider and a changeup that is developing nicely.

There’s nobody in the Mariners’ bullpen who needs to be replaced, so Smith probably won’t be appearing in a lot of high-leverage situations. Still, more bullpen depth doesn’t hurt and Smith will be just another option with high upside for Lloyd McClendon to use in relief.

The only thing that could prevent Smith from reaching Seattle next month is his health, as he was recently shelved with a strained side, per Tacoma announcer Mike Curto

Smith only spent the minimum seven days on the disabled list, so the injury was not serious. 

If the Mariners are extra cautious and shut down Smith, the call would likely go to Logan Bawcom, who is already on the 40-man. Bawcom had great seasons in 2012 and 2013, but has struggled mightily this year with a 5.21 ERA (6.01 FIP) and a walk rate of 13.4 percent.  

 

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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Angels Looking Like MLB’s Best After Furious Acsension to Top of AL West

The last time the Los Angeles Angels were alone atop the American League West, Thor was No. 1 at the box office. 

OK, so May 15, 2011, wasn’t that long ago. Yet it must seem like long enough to Angels fans, who watched their club limp to third-place finishes in each of the last two seasons. 

Now, with a 4-2 win Monday night against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, the Halos moved a half-game ahead of the idle Oakland Athletics and took hold of the best record in baseball.

As he so often does, Mike Trout led the charge, going 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI. As the Angels rise, so do Trout’s chances of claiming his first MVP Award.

But he’s far from the only catalyst behind the Angels’ ascent. After a disappointing, injury-shortened 2013, Albert Pujols is enjoying a bounce-back campaign, belting 23 home runs and providing Trout with some much-needed protection in the lineup.

The bullpen, bolstered by the arrival of closer Huston Street before the trade deadline, has transitioned from a liability to an asset.

The rotation remains a question mark; Tyler Skaggs is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and No. 3 starter C.J. Wilson owns an unsightly 4.59 ERA. 

Still, Los Angeles can ride studs Garrett Richards (2.53 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 167 IP) and Jered Weaver (3.66 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 161.1 IP). 

Granted, the Angels’ perch is precarious. Oakland, despite dropping five in a row entering play Tuesday, is loaded with aces and boasts baseball’s highest-scoring offense. 

And the Angels haven’t been unstoppable. They’ve gone 16-13 since the break, but, as Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com notes, the bulk of those wins have been squeakers:

The two teams will square off 10 more times before things are settled, and the strength of their remaining schedules is virtually identical, per ESPN.com. This means things could easily tip either way, and this marathon will almost assuredly go down to the final lap.

“It’s been a race,” leadoff hitter Kole Calhoun, another key cog in the Halos’ winning machine, told MLB.com‘s Gonzalez. “We’ve kind of been neck and neck all season. It’s nice to be in this position right now.”

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

The winner of the AL West will waltz into the division series, likely with home-field advantage. The loser, meanwhile, will be tossed into a one-game, do-or-die playoff (assuming they don’t careen out of the wild-card picture). 

It’d be a tough break for what could end up being the second-best team in the big leagues. Los Angeles manager Mike Scioscia has no problem with that, as he told Daniel Carp of USA Today:

I think the weight on winning a division is warranted. If you’re going to have divisional baseball, you have to make winning a division the first objective of any team that’s contending. And if you don’t reach that goal and you played well enough, you have the opportunity to work your way into the playoffs.

The Angels, naturally are hoping to skip that “opportunity” altogether. They have their sights set on the top spota position the A’s once seemed to have firmly in their grasp, but that’s now officially up for grabs. 

As Anthony McCarron, who recently put the Angels at the top of the New York Daily News‘ power rankings, notes:

Just when we thought Oakland was untouchable, Mike Trout and the lads have slipped into first place in the elite American League West, the best division in baseball … They’re good. Real good. 

Good enough to hang on and make a run at their first World Series since 2002 and the second in franchise history? Time will tell.

For now, we know this: Thor may not be the No. 1 movie in America, but the Angels are flying like superheroes. 

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Oakland Athletics: Which Catcher Is Most Valuable?

Much of the Oakland Athletics‘ success this season has stemmed from manager Bob Melvin’s implementation of platoons in the field. Quality players like catchers John Jaso and Derek Norris split time based on the opposing pitcher’s throwing arm.

Jaso would hit against righties, Norris would hit against lefties, and everyone’s knees stayed well-rested. That worked until Stephen Vogt was called up from Triple-A Sacramento and proceeded to mash the stitches off the ball, forcing Melvin to keep him in the lineup, though often away from his natural position.

An overflow of talent is certainly not a bad thing, especially considering the physical demands that tax everyday catchers and can diminish their offensive production. But there are only so many innings to share among Vogt‘s hot bat, Jaso‘s Moneyball skill set and Norris’ impressive all-around game.

 

John Jaso

94 G, 295 AB, 41 R, 8 HR, 38 RBI, .264 BA/.340 OBP/.424 SLG

When the baseball gods craft a low-budget No. 2 hitter in the future, they can use Jaso as the prototype. Blessed with a keen hitter’s eye, solid gap power and above-average baserunning skills, Jaso is general manager Billy Beane’s kind of player.

Jaso missed half of last season with lingering effects from a concussion on July 24, 2013, and his 34 games as the A’s designated hitter this year are more than any other player on the roster. His offensive numbers are good for a catcher but seem average when compared to other DHs.

Oddly enough, Jaso hits much better when playing catcher than DH-ing despite the extra workload associated with playing in the field. He’s batting .296 as a catcher and .226 as a DH since he began splitting time between the positions in 2012.

DH-ing Norris or Vogt would make sense if Jaso were a better defensive catcher, but his limited skills behind the plate argue otherwise. He’s thrown out just four of 35 potential base stealers this year and has cost the A’s four more runs defensively than a league-average catcher, according to FanGraphs. In fact, Jaso‘s fielding and positional adjustment combined value ranks dead last among catchers with 160 plate appearances or more in 2014.

 

Derek Norris

92 G, 269 AB, 35 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, .286 BA/.379 OBP/.457 SLG

There’s a reason Norris caught A’s closer Sean Doolittle in the 2014 All-Star game. He has elevated his game to become one of the league’s best receivers this year despite splitting time behind the plate.

After a rough offensive start to his career, Norris has blossomed in his third season with Oakland. His .834 OPS is the best on the team among players with at least 200 at bats, and he has stepped in as the cleanup hitter against left-handed pitchers after Yoenis Cespedes was traded.

Some of the success for Norris’ career-best slash line can be traced to his diminishing strikeout percentage, which has tumbled from 28.4 percent in 2012 to 17.9 percent in 2014.

Like Jaso, Norris doesn’t throw out many guys on the bases (seven of 47 runners this year). But his offense is good enough to earn a cumulative 2.6 WAR, third among American League catchers.

Norris came over as a prospect in the Gio Gonzalez trade back in 2011 alongside pitchers Brad Peacock, Tom Milone and A.J. Cole. Coincidentally, Cole was later traded back to the Washington Nationals in the deal that brought Jaso to the A’s.

 

Stephen Vogt

57 G, 194 AB, 21 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, .325 BA/.356 OBP/.495 SLG

Calling Vogt a catcher is getting to be a bit of a stretch, since he has mainly played first base and right field after being called up at the beginning of June. That’s a testament to his versatility and the established veterans already behind the plate, not a reflection of Vogt‘s defensive skills.

Though he has logged just 85.1 innings behind the plate this year, Vogt has thrown out just one fewer baserunner than Jaso on the year, with no stolen bases against him so far. Vogt also threw out 31 percent of base stealers in a more permanent role behind the plate in 2013.

Vogt was one of the hottest hitters in the majors for about 40 games after being called up, peaking with a .376/.407/.564 line on July 11. He’s regressed somewhat since his out-of-this-world start, but his 1.7 WAR is higher than Jaso‘s despite having spent two months in the minors.

The one drawback to Vogt‘s offensive production, other than being a typical slow-footed catcher, is he doesn’t work pitchers like many other Athletics, including Norris and Jaso. His batting average is on par with hitters like Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre (again, in a small sample size), but his on-base percentage is more along the lines of Christian Yelich and Denard Span.

 

Verdict

The current platoon is working out well for the A’s, so there’s no reason to bat Norris more against right-handers or Jaso and Vogt against southpaws. All three have harsh righty-lefty splits and are best suited in their current roles.

Norris has emerged as a legitimate star this year, while Jaso is a solid role player but just that. Vogt is probably most valuable as a utility bat who can slide behind the plate as a late-game defensive replacement.

 

All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

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Robinson Cano and Contending Mariners Proving to Be a Smash-Hit Success

Don’t count out the Seattle Mariners.

Yes, the 66-55 M’s are looking up at both the 71-49 Los Angeles Angels and 73-49 Oakland A’s in the American League West. But in this era of the second wild card, third place can be good enough.

And, look at that, with a decisive 7-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers on Friday night, Seattle moved into playoff position.

If everything were settled today, the Mariners would be baseball’s most unlikely October-bound team. (They currently have the AL’s second wild-card spot and are a half-game up on the Tigers.)

They won Friday much the way they’ve won all season: behind solid pitching and Robinson Cano‘s bat. Cano, 31, signed with the Mariners in December for a 10-year, $240 million deal after playing his first nine years in the majors with the New York Yankees.

In plating six runs against sinkerballer Rick Porcello (five earned), the Mariners enjoyed a rare offensive outburst that included contributions up and down the lineup. 

Third baseman Kyle Seager and first baseman Logan Morrison each collected two hits and an RBI. So did Chris Taylor, a late-July call-up who has hit .385 in 18 games.

Seattle starter James Paxton went six innings, allowing just one earned run, and has now won all six of his big league decisions dating back to last year.

Center fielder Austin Jackson, who was traded to the Mariners in the three-team blockbuster that sent ace left-hander David Price to Detroit, got a nice ovation in his return to the Motor City (though he also went 0-for-5).

The star of the night, though, was Cano, who went 2-for-4, scored twice and yanked a solo shot over the right field wall.

The home run was just the 11th of the season for Cano. Still, he’s hitting .330, second best in the majors behind Houston‘s Jose Altuve (.334), and living up to the massive contract that brought him from the Big Apple to the birthplace of Starbucks.

There was a little sour mixed in with the sweet: Cano exited the game in the eighth inning with a sore foot, per MLB.com‘s Matt Slovin.

It’s always concerning to see a star player hobbled, but skipper Lloyd McClendon insisted it was a precautionary move. 

“He should be OK [Saturday],” McClendon told Slovin. “I just didn’t want to take a chance. Hopefully, it doesn’t swell.”

If Cano does take the field Saturday, he’ll face Price, the deadline acquisition who was supposed to push the Tigers into the American League’s upper echelon. 

Instead, Detroit has floundered. The 65-55 Tigers currently trail the 67-54 Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, and now they’re looking up at the Mariners, too.

“We’re in it,” Seager told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune. “We feel really good about our chances down the stretch.”

It’s far too early to count out the Tigers, who could get rotation cogs Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and closer Joakim Soria back this month, per MLB.com. And other teams, including the 63-60 Toronto Blue Jays and 61-59 Yankees, are hanging around in the wild-card chase.

But Seattle, a quiet contender all season, suddenly looks formidable. 

The Mariners need Cano at full health, no question. But he’s not their only weapon. Consider the guy they’ll send to the hill Saturday to counter Price: Felix Hernandez and his American League-leading 1.95 ERA.

Here’s how ESPN‘s Jim Caple (h/t ABC News) summed up Seattle’s surprising surge before Friday’s game:

Here they are, with the best pitching in the majors, coming off an 8-1 homestand, 10 games above .500 and with a real chance to take some attention away from the Seahawks in October. They might be in third place in the AL West … but baseball’s best division could provide three postseason teams. 

The thought of the Mariners making the postseason for the first time since 2001’s 116-46 team, and competing with the reigning Super Bowl champs for attention, would’ve sounded foolish to all but the most ardent believers a few months ago.

Now, it’s looking like we’d all be foolish to count them out.

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Jon Lester Says He Still Uses GPS Directions When Driving to Oakland’s Coliseum

Driving to work is the worst.

Spending hours of your life shoving a vehicle through traffic is tantamount to torture, but not knowing exactly how to get to your destination makes it that much worse.

This is Jon Lester’s daily grind, and he’s using technology to help make his adjustment to life with the Oakland A’s easier.

Lester told The Dan Patrick Show, via NBC on Yahoo Sports (h/t For The Win’s Nate Scott), Thursday that he’s still using the GPS on his smartphone to make his 40-minute commute to O.co Coliseum: “Every day, I do the GPS on my phone, so I don’t get lost.”

Lester also confirmed that he’s renting a home in the area. The A’s acquired Lester from the Boston Red Sox on July 31, trading away prized slugger Yoenis Cespedes to bolster their rotation with the 30-year-old lefty. 

Grantland’s Jonah Keri believes Lester could end up back in Boston after the season: “Lester, a free agent after this season, has already expressed his interest in re-signing with Boston, and will be out of Oakland’s price range regardless. He’s a rental for a team committed to going for broke.”

In any case, I sympathize with Lester’s GPS usage.

I moved to Chicago earlier this summer, and after two months in the city, I’m still all shoulders when drivers ask the best way to a destination. I have no idea. I just want to get to The Hangge-Uppe before 3 a.m., preferably alive.

The new-city struggle is real, Lester. Just keep using the GPS. We’ll figure it out or fall in an open manhole trying.

 

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Felix Hernandez’s Historic Season Deserves Kershaw-Like Attention

Felix Hernandez is having a historically good season, arguably the best of his 10-year career with the Seattle Mariners.

Unfortunately, with Clayton Kershaw having another Cy Young-caliber year for the large-market Los Angeles Dodgers, King Felix hasn’t received the league-wide attention he deserves.

Felix’s assault on baseball’s record books continued Monday night, as the 28-year-old right-hander allowed one run on three hits over seven innings at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, striking out eight batters without issuing a walk. The performance extended his major-league-record streak to 16 games in which he’s logged seven or more innings and allowed two or fewer runs.

On the season, Hernandez owns a 13-3 record with a 1.95 ERA and 194-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 180.1 innings, and he’s held opposing hitters to a .191 batting average and .505 OPS.

His seven innings pitched in the game gave Hernandez 2,005 for his career, making him the youngest pitcher since 28-year-old Dwight Gooden in 1993 to reach the 2,000-inning mark, per Greg Johns of MLB.com.

Catcher Mike Zunino spoke about the Mariners ace after the game, via Johns:

“It’s something else,” Zunino said of the streak. “But he is something else. That’s all you can say. He’s got the best stuff right now and he’s pitching, too. When you have a combination of both, it’s pretty hard to score multiple runs off him.”

During his impressive streak, Hernandez has been virtually untouchable, posting a 9-2 record to go along with a 1.41 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 121 innings. Opposing hitters are batting a paltry .165/.203/.233 during that span.

Furthermore, Hernandez would set new career highs in several categories if the season ended today, including strikeouts (9.68), walks (1.60) and home runs (0.35) per nine innings, ERA (1.95) and FIP (2.07).

So, why aren’t people talking about King Felix’s incredible season like they are Kershaw’s?

On paper, Felix’s numbers admittedly aren’t quite as impressive as Kershaw’s, but they’re also not far behind.

The first thing that stands out is Hernandez’s 180.1 innings pitched compared to Kershaw’s 136.1, which highlights the right-hander’s durability and that he’s sustained his overall success over a longer period of time. And not to detract from Kershaw’s remarkable season, but his numbers, specifically his strikeout and walk rates, might be slightly inflated due to the smaller sample size.

That being said, Hernandez ranks second behind Kershaw (among all qualified pitchers) in several categories, including ERA and FIP.

Compared to other American League hurlers, however, it’s clear that nobody has been better than the Mariners ace. And if the remainder of the regular season unfolds as expected, the right-hander should take home his second Cy Young Award.

Hernandez’s impact also extends well beyond his impressive numbers; when he’s the on the mound, the Mariners are simply a better team.

The M’s offense has scored three or more runs in 19 of Hernandez’s 25 starts this season, and the right-hander owns a 13-0 record and 2.04 ERA in those games. Overall, the team is 17-8 with Felix on the bump, per Baseball Reference.

Seattle’s win over the Blue Jays on Monday puts it one game back of the Detroit Tigers for the second Wild Card spot with a 63-55 overall record, with a 38.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason, per Baseball Prospectus’ calculations, via MLB.com.

Hopefully it doesn’t take a playoff berth to make people realize how insanely good King Felix has been this season.

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