Kuzul

Opening Day is just two months away, and the Texas Rangers are just a few players short of filling their roster.

The club is still searching for a pitcher to fill the final rotation spot. The Rangers need a couple more position players and two relievers. And with 54 players going to Surprise, Ariz. for spring training, Texas is sure to find the right guys.

Here, we are going to look at three dark-horse prospects who could sneak onto the Opening Day roster. Their names haven’t been mentioned much, but they have a decent chance of being in Arlington on March 31.

Luis Sardinas

Luis Sardinas is currently ranked as the Rangers’ No. 7 prospect by Baseball America.

The 20-year-old is a decent hitter with good speed. He had a collective .288 batting average and 32 steals between High-A Myrtle beach and Double-A Frisco. He can hit for extra bases and has a knack for scoring.

Sardinas’ issue is finding a place for him to play.

He is a shortstop who has Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar in front of him. He hasn’t shown much ability to play around the diamond, either. Plus, the Rangers have super utility man Adam Rosales.

There may not be enough room for him come March 31. It would also serve him better to continue developing at the lower levels.

But if somebody up the middle has a setback, Sardinas could be next in line.

Wilmer Font

Wilmer Font is another guy who could make the Opening Day roster for Texas.

And with Robbie Ross possibly spending time in the minors, another spot could be open in the bullpen.

Font was originally a starter until 2010, when he had surgery and missed the 2011 season. He came back and started a few games before transitioning to reliever. The 23-year-old has been dominant out of the bullpen at three different levels of the organization.

At this point, he could be more of a lock than a dark horse. But with the acquisition of Shawn Tolleson, among others, it could be a longer wait than Font hoped for.

Luke Jackson

Luke Jackson may have the longest road to the 2014 roster, but he shouldn’t be ruled out.

Derek Holland’s injury has opened a spot in the rotation. Nick Tepesch and Colby Lewis should be considered favorites to fill in, but Jackson could be ready for the big league level.

He finished his 2013 campaign with an 11-4 record and 2.04 ERA between Myrtle Beach and Frisco. He had a WHIP of 1.180 and struck out 134 batters in 128 innings. His command is still a work in progress, but he has a live arm and would fit in nicely at the back end of the rotation.

If Texas doesn’t think the other candidates are worthy of the spot, Jackson could find himself making his MLB debut in April.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

You can follow Trey on Twitter @treydwarren

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The Texas Rangers have shown some interest in MLB free-agent pitcher A.J. Burnett. This being reported by Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas on Twitter.

Pittsburgh Pirates reporter Travis Sawchik of the Tribune-Review broke the news in a January 28 article that Burnett would indeed be returning to Major League Baseball.

After keeping the Pirates and the rest of the baseball world in wait for nearly the entirety of the offseason, veteran free agent A.J. Burnett has decided to pitch in 2014, a source close to the situation told the Tribune-Review.

Burnett’s decision to return does not mean he will limit himself to pitching for the Pirates, though Burnett indicated that was his preference last season. The 37-year-old Burnett led the National League in groundball rate and strikeout rate last season showing no signs of diminishing skills. The Phillies and Orioles also have reportedly expressed interest in Burnett.

Burnett could be a good fit for the Rangers who will start the season without veteran left-handed pitcher Derek Holland. Holland suffered a knee injury while playing with his dog, per multiple sources. According to the Rangers’ depth chart via the team website, Holland was slated to be the No. 2 starter.

Burnett certainly fits the mold of a pitcher wanting success at the hitter’s friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. In 2013, Burnett had a 56.5 percent ground ball rate which was first in the NL , and he struck out 209 batters which was No. 10 in the MLB.

Other teams that have interest in Burnett include the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles, per Sawchik on Twitter.

At 37-years old, Burnett might be a liability because of age. However, the Rangers did bring in veteran Joe Nathan two seasons ago, days before his 37th birthday. A one-year deal might be enough for Burnett to fill the roll of the No. 4 or No. 5 starter if someone like Robbie Ross or Colby Lewis doesn’t rise up during spring training. If he can replicate his stats from the previous two seasons, signing Burnett will have been a smart move by general manager Jon Daniels, if he chooses to pursue the starting pitcher.

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And we’re here at what seems to be the final stop on the train ride exploring all the available free-agent pitching options for the Texas Rangers. Johan Santana was Tuesday morning’s first attraction, and he’ll be followed by Scott Baker. 

Like Santana, Baker, 32, is looking to rebuild his market value following major surgery a couple of years ago, and he could end up being a steal for his new team. Do I have your attention Mr. Daniels? The Rangers should definitely be interested in this guy.

According to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians are currently in the running to sign Baker. The Chicago Cubs are seeking to add a starting pitcher but are reportedly not interested in a reunion with Baker, per Jesse Rodgers of ESPN Chicago. 

That’s a shallow market for a guy who’s been pretty solid over his seven-plus-year career in the majors. It’s a perfect opportunity for the Rangers to join the running for him. 

Baker gets the job done with the classic fastball, changeup, slider and curveball repertoire. He’s not quite a “strikeout pitcher” but is rather well-rounded—a poor man’s version of Ervin Santana, perhaps. He misses a healthy amount of bats, is very controlled and generally stays under one hit per inning. 

He doesn’t have front-line stuff like Santana, but being able to pinpoint a 90 mph fastball can be just as effective as a loosely thrown 95 mph heater. Control and location usually trump velocity alone. Usually—because there are exceptions to this.

Baker isn’t a horse like other pitchers I’ve profiled, such as Santana or Bronson Arroyo, but he does seem to fit the mold of a back-end starter pretty comfortably. He’ll give you around 150 to 160 innings on average and will allow about the same number of hits, maybe slightly less. 

He’s made at least 21 starts in five of his last six full seasons, with the exception being last season. So he’s more than durable enough to handle a No. 5 spot in the Rangers’ rotation.

The Oklahoma State product consistently hit his corners and spots, and he won’t walk too many batters. He leans toward a fly-ball pitcher but isn’t terrifyingly home run susceptible. He pitched 200 innings in 2009 with the Twins and watched 28 balls leave the yard. That could be better, but it isn’t the worst total you’ve ever seen. 

He does get his share of ground balls with a quality changeup. The athletic Ranger defense would be behind him every step of the way.

The only substantial concern with Baker is his recent Tommy John surgery. He had the operation in mid-2012 and returned to pitch in the final month of 2013 with the Cubs. In 15 innings over three starts, he allowed six runs and posted a 3.60 ERA. Facing 57 hitters, he only gave up nine hits.

He’s completely healthy now, and with a full spring training under his belt, he should be a viable option for an Opening Day rotation.

If I were Jon Daniels, Baker would be on my short list of targets. I’d consider offering him a one-year deal in the neighborhood of $3 million to $4 million and maybe tag on a team option for a second year.

He’s a sensible option because he’s relatively cheap, gives you innings and can hold his own in those innings.

Baker is out to rebuild his value, so that price should be a fair offer for him to do so. He would be a nice, under-the-radar addition to the Rangers’ rotation.

Maybe Texas signs two Bakers this offseason? 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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In the middle of the 2014 NFL Super Bowl week, Seattle Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson is making his way around the Internet for appearing on a Texas Rangers baseball card.

NFL on Fox tweeted a picture of the Bowman brand baseball card on January 27.

Bowman brand is part of Topps, a popular baseball card company. Topps‘ marketing manager Marc Stephens spoke as to why the company decided to run with the card which is set to release in May, per Anthony Andro of Fox Sports Southwest in his January article.

There are two reasons we decided to put him in. First he switched teams. Plus, for the same reason the Rangers picked him up, he’s an exciting story, a big story. As soon as he switched teams we wanted a prospect card of him. It seemed like a good idea considering the success he’s had. We wanted to showcase a dual-sport athlete.

Could Wilson be a big story after the Super Bowl? Rangers’ general manager Jon Daniels is rooting for the Seahawks to win in hopes the, “Super Bowl MVP walks in [to spring training] two weeks later and puts on a Rangers’ uniform.” Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas reported the quote via Twitter.

Wilson, who is 25 years of age, could see baseball as a new challenge after he conquers the NFL—winning the Super Bowl MVP would constitute as exactly that. Of course, there is no guarantee he makes the team and pans out, see Michael Jordan’s transition, but Wilson actually has some minor league experience. And looking even deeper into sport-to-sport transitions, Deion Sanders was a recent athlete who was successful in both football and baseball.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame cornerback was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the sixth round of the 1985 MLB draft, but elected to go to Florida State University. In 1988, Sanders was again drafted, this time in the 30th round by the New York Yankees. He actually made his MLB debut for the Yankees on May 31, 1989.

Sanders even thinks Wilson should seriously consider baseball as he tweeted this back in December of 2013.

Wilson was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 MLB draft by the Colorado Rockies. He hit for a .230 and .228 batting average in two minor league seasons, respectively, before deciding to return to college with one year left of eligibility to play football for the University of Wisconsin.

Hey, maybe Daniels is onto something with Wilson and his athleticism. He’s currently listed to the Round Rock Express roster, the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate. Nonetheless, there really is the slimmest of chances Wilson makes his way to Arlington for a full season if he really does gear up and play.

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According to this tweet by Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, five major league teams are reportedly interested in free-agent starting pitcher Jason Hammel:

The Texas Rangers should not be one of those five. While Hammel might seem like a low-risk, high-reward arm to many teams, he would not be a fit in Arlington.

Over the last week, I’ve cycled through most of the available starters on the market and made cases as to why each one would fit with the Rangers rotation while Derek Holland recovers from arthroscopic knee surgery. Most of the ones I’ve discussed—Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo, Bruce Chen and possibly A.J. Burnett—have strong cases as potentially nice fits. 

Hammel, 31, is a guy who needs to be addressed specifically, as well—but for why he won’t fit or succeed in Arlington. But as always, I’ll start off with what he does well.

Hammel has been able to keep the ball in the yard pretty well over his career. Between 2009 and 2011 pitching with the Colorado Rockies, Hammel averaged 174 innings pitched while allowing an average of just 18.6 homers per season in that span.

It should be noted that pitching at Coors Field is no easy task, and Hammel was able to keep the ball down more often than not. Last year with the Baltimore Orioles, he surrendered 22 homers in just 139.1 innings. With a workload closer to his Colorado averages, Hammel would have ended up allowing around 30 homers in 2013. 

But 2013 does seem to be an outlier when you take a look at his lifetime numbers in the home run department.

Mechanically, he relies heavily on his sinking fastball, which induces a high number of ground balls. The Rangers figure to have one of baseball’s premier defenses this season, and that would certainly benefit Hammel.

He’d be able to trust his stuff a little more knowing the guys behind him can make plays and get him out of jams.

His control is just on par with the rest of the league. His career average for walks per nine innings is 3.1. That’s decent, but you’d like it to be a little lower in the American League.

Finally, Hammel is a large man at 6’6″ and 225 pounds. He can be an intimidating presence on the mound and has velocity in the low-to-mid 90s, accompanied by a big 12-to-6 curve ball and a sharp-breaking slider. 

But here is why the Rangers should turn away from him. 

First, his asking price. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this on December 9:

I haven’t seen any definitive updates on what Hammel is asking for now, but that doesn’t sound too good off the bat for the Rangers, or really for any club.

What is particularly scary is the difference and glaring inconsistency between his 2012 and 2013 seasons with Baltimore. Despite only making three more starts in 2013 than he did in 2012, Hammel‘s ERA jumped from 3.43 to 4.97, his strikeout rate per nine innings dropped from 8.6 to 6.2 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeted from 2.69 to 2.00. 

Outside of his 2012 season with the Orioles, which was considered to be a breakout for him, Hammel has never finished a season with an ERA under 4.33. Much of his career workload was spent in the National League, even if it was in Colorado’s launching pad. 

Over his career, Hammel hasn’t fared well against lefties or righties. Lefties have hit .281 off him, while righties have batted .278. Those numbers aren’t due to improve much pitching at Rangers Ballpark. 

He also has a recent injury history that is an immediate cause for concern. Discomfort in his pitching arm as well as flexor strains in his lower back caused Hammel to miss significant time over the last two seasons with Baltimore. 

The Rangers can find better value in another starting pitcher on the market. Between Hammel‘s injuries over the last couple seasons, his reported asking price and lackluster career averages, Texas should stay away despite any feelings that he might be worth a gamble.

He’s definitely not worth a three-year gamble.

Unless Hammel can be signed to a one-year deal in the range of $6 million to $8 million with a possible team option for a second year, Texas should turn its attention to guys who will provide greater benefits to its rotation. 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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It’s been a hectic past few months for Taijuan Walker.

In September (well, technically Aug. 30), Walker—who is widely considered the Seattle Mariners’ top prospect, as well as one of the top-ranked pitching prospects in baseball headed into the 2014 season—made his major league debut. By early December, the 21-year-old right-hander was the subject of trade rumors as the Mariners explored a deal for Tampa Bay’s David Price.

However, in spite of the swirling rumors, the trade for Price never transpired, as the Mariners quickly backed off their presumed willingness to include Walker in a hypothetical deal.

But after months of uncertainty surrounding Walker’s immediate future in the organization, new Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon now expects the right-hander to open the 2014 season in the team’s starting rotation.

According to Robert Emrich of MiLB.com:

McClendon declared Friday that the team’s top prospect is expected to be part of the Mariners’ Opening Day roster.

…

“I’d be very disappointed if he’s not [in the rotation],” he said.

So, what can be expected from Walker if he does crack the Opening Day rotation?

Background

Selected by the Mariners in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft, Walker has everything one looks for in a future ace. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, the right-hander is an outstanding athlete with a fluid delivery, quick arm and exceptional stuff.

After an up-and-down age-19 campaign in 2012 at Double-A Jackson, Walker’s control and execution of his electric arsenal developed rapidly during his second tour of the level last season.

The 21-year-old began the 2013 season by mastering the Southern League, posting a 2.46 ERA and a 96-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 84 innings at Jackson, and he ultimately earned a promotion to Triple-A Tacoma in late June.

Despite the fact that he was one of the younger pitchers at the level, Walker held his own with a 3.61 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 57.1 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Even though he had logged a career-high 141.1 innings between both minor league levels, the Mariners still decided to offer their top prospect a taste of the major leagues as a September call-up.

Suffice it to say that Walker responded favorably to the challenge.

Making his debut against the Astros on Aug. 30, Walker tossed five solid innings to capture his first major league victory. The right-hander allowed one unearned run on two hits and a walk while notching a pair of strikeouts, and he threw 43 of his 70 pitches for a strike in the outing.

Success didn’t come as easily for Walker in his follow-up start in Kansas City on Sept. 4, as he was tagged for four earned runs on four hits but still completed his scheduled five innings. He also recorded a pair of walks and strikeouts in the outing.

Walker benefited from facing the Astros a second time in his final start of the year on Sept. 9, as the promising right-hander allowed two earned runs on five hits and a walk with eight strikeouts over five innings.

Overall, Walker registered a 3.60 ERA, .204 opponent batting average and 12-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings spanning three starts.

Scouting Report

At 6’4″ and 210 pounds, the 21-year-old is a top-notch athlete with highly projectable talent, and he’s shown the ability to handle a sizable workload throughout his young career.

Walker’s fastball explodes out of his hand and consistently registers between 93-96 mph, and he’ll dial it up to 97-98 on occasion. The Mariners introduced a cutter into his arsenal in 2012, and he’s quickly adopted a feel for the pitch, throwing it in the low-90s with excellent slicing action to his glove side.

Walker’s curveball is still inconsistent and leaves something to be desired, though it has good shape and downward bite when he’s on.

As reflected by the above graphic, which covers Walker’s three starts in the majors last season, his overall inconsistency with the pitch stemmed from a varying release point.

When he would get on top of the pitch and achieve a higher arm slot, it featured excellent pace and shape, not to mention sharper biting action in and around the zone. However, when he failed to achieve said arm slot, the offering had significantly less shape and, therefore, less vertical movement.

Finally, his changeup has come a long way over the past year and could surpass initial projections with further development, though it’s still a fringe-average offering at the present.

The Year Ahead

While Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are locked in as the Mariners’ No. 1 and 2 starters for the 2014 season, the rest of the team’s starting rotation is likely to be decided during spring training.

As of now, the Mariners have six pitchers competing for the final three spots in the rotation: Walker, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi. However, that could change in a hurry should the team sign one of the remaining big-name free-agent pitchers such as Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

In order for Walker to both make the Opening Day roster and stick in the major leagues next season, he will need to show improved control compared to his 2013 campaign (particularly his time spent at Triple-A). Walker certainly has the raw stuff to be effective and hold his own at the highest level—as he demonstrated last September—but he still lacks the efficiency needed to work deep into games.

Expectations must be tempered if Walker wins a spot in the Mariners’ Opening Day rotation next spring, as it’s important to remember that he’s far from a finished prospect and will be forced to make adjustments on the fly against the game’s best hitters.

The three main statistical projection models (Steamer, Oliver and ZIPS) each suggest that Walker’s performance will be up and down next season, which makes sense considering the aforementioned concerns about his control and lack of polish.

Here’s a look at each projection:

Though the numbers don’t exactly jump off the page and imply that Walker will face some form of team-imposed innings limit, they should be good enough to allow him to stick at the back end of the Mariners’ rotation for the duration of the season.

Plus, Walker’s history of year-to-year improvements against advanced competition is an encouraging sign—one that accurately portrays his capacity to make adjustments, as well as his desire to become one of the top pitchers in baseball.

Still, Walker’s 2014 role with the Mariners will depend on his showing in spring training. However, if his performance comes remotely close to the expectations set by the organization, then it’s difficult to envision him not beginning the year in The Show.

All videos courtesy of MLB Advanced Media.

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It’s just about three weeks before pitchers and catchers report for the MLB spring training and scouting reports and projections have been made.

Currently, Derek Holland’s future is to be determined as he won’t return until midseason due to the rehabilitation process from surgery on an injured knee, per multiple sources. His projections will be omitted. With several free-agent pitchers left on the market, do the Rangers make a move or depend on a new candidate to help fill the void?

Free-agent names like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana remain unsigned. With the loss of Holland and the uncertainty of who will replace him, we’ll hold off on making any projected rotations. However, a good guide to go by when looking at the possible rotation is the Rangers’ depth chart, per team website.

Going off the standard five-man rotation, Nick Tepesch looks to now gain the last spot in the rotation with Holland out. At times during the 2013 season, Tepesch flashed brilliance but ended the season with a losing record. Again, we’ll hold off on making a projected rotation, but we’ll use the depth chart as a guide.

As for the other part of the battery, there should be two primary catchers for the Rangers this season. One of those catchers that could emerge as an every day starter is J.P. Arencibia. The former Toronto Blue Jay signed an offseason deal with the Rangers and replaces A.J. Pierzynski from 2013. Arencibia hit 21 home runs last season but struggled elsewhere with a .194 batting average. However, don’t expect him to make too much noise this year as Soto is the expected starting catcher by Daniels, per Evan Grant of SportsDay DFW in a November 2013 article.

Let’s look at theses players and others as we review scouting reports and make projections for the Rangers pitchers and catchers in the 2014 MLB season.

Begin Slideshow

The Seattle Mariners roster is full of unknowns with spring training just over a month away. The front office has done little to address the team’s biggest positional needs (outfield and pitching) and the fact that it has an interesting blend of youth and experience.

There are several intriguing position battles and storylines to watch for this spring. What will the outfield depth chart look like? Who will be in the starting rotation? Who will be starting at catcher? Those questions and more are addressed in the following slides, as I broke down key position battles and discussed players who need to make a case to earn a roster spot on Opening Day.

*All stats and info were obtained via ESPN.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

Begin Slideshow

As Major League Baseball’s arbitration deadline passed January 17th, the Oakland A’s locked up all of their eligible players except one: Josh Reddick. What happens next is anyone’s guess.

There aren’t too many options, though.

The two teams can work out an agreement before they head to arbitration court in February. If they can’t, then an arbitration panel will choose Reddick’s desired salary, or the Athletics‘ proposed salary.

A’s beat writer John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group provides the salary exchange:

If the two sides meet exactly in the middle, then Reddick will receive $2.625 million in 2014.

Since arriving on the big league scene in 2009, Reddick has played a full season just once. He’s also only hit above .250 just one time as well, and that was in 87 games with the Boston Red Sox in 2011. Looking at the two seasons he’s played in Oakland, he averages 135 games and a .236 batting average. But when he’s healthy and hitting, he brings quite a bit of power to the lineup.

But that’s just offensive contributions.

Reddick has provided a ton of highlight-worthy plays in the last two seasons. It was in his first year with the A’s that he won a Gold Glove, lest we forget.

So what do you pay a guy who plays phenomenal defense but hasn’t hit particularly well outside of one season?

Looking at his Baseball-Reference.com page, Reddick compares closely to guys like John Mayberry Jr., Brennan Boesch, Logan Morrison and Domonic Brown.

Mayberry avoided arbitration this year by signing a one-year, $1.5875 million contract. Boesch signed a $2.3 million deal. Morrison heads to arbitration as well, seeking $2.5 million according to Greg Johns of MLB.com.

Based on that, it’s difficult to see Reddick winning his desired $3.25 million deal.

Then again, none of those guys have a Gold Glove. However, Boesch was in the running for Rookie of the Year in his first season, and Brown was an All-Star in 2013.

Here, the middle ground ($2.625 million) actually makes perfect sense.

Oakland A’s blogger Chris Kusiolek tweeted that the two parties were to reach an agreement shortly after deadline day:

That didn’t come to fruition as of Jan. 19, but if there are murmurs already, the chances this deal is done before the case makes its way to arbitration are high. It’s been quite some time since the A’s and a player went before the arbitration panel.

Fans, meanwhile, seem to be in agreement with Oakland.

To be fair, the player does have his supporters:

Of the two options presented, Oakland’s right fielder is more likely to be overpaid than underpaid, so the $3.25 million is more plausible than $2 million. But that’s if it even gets to that point, which it shouldn’t.

Josh Reddick will make $2.625 million in 2014.

If the number deviates, it will be upward, not downward, but it won’t go higher than $3 million. That you can take to the bank.

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Roughly a year from now, Mike Trout is likely to find himself looking to go from being the most criminally underpaid player in MLB to being not the most criminally underpaid player in MLB.

There’s no doubt he’d succeed. It’s the degree to which he could succeed that’s the question, and coming up with a definitive answer is…Well, it proved to be trickier than I anticipated.

Here’s the deal: Trout, the Los Angeles Angels superstar and baseball demigod walking among us, will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time following the 2014 season. Assuming he doesn’t sign an extension between now and then, of course.

The thinking is that Trout, who right now is only entitled to the league minimum of $500,000, is destined to shatter the record payout of $10 million for a first-time arbitration-eligible player set by Ryan Howard in 2008.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times spoke to a source who floated $15 million as a possibility. Thinking more conservatively, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com floated $12 million as a possibility.

Sounds about right. Beyond being younger—Trout will be through his age-22 season, whereas Howard was through his age-27 season—Trout is the superior player. Howard had power, but Trout has power, the ability to hit for average, steal bases, play excellent defense and to see through walls (probably).

However, arbitration is a unique beast. In such a way that it could be tricky for Trout to top Howard’s $10 million payout if his case were to actually go to arbitration.

Here are the criteria for determining arbitration payouts as laid down by MLB’s collective bargaining agreement:

1. The quality of the player’s most recent season
2. The length and consistency of the player’s career contribution
3. The record of the player’s past compensation
4. Comparative baseball salaries
5. The existence of any physical or mental defects
6. The recent performance record of the player’s club

In regards to the first two, if we dial up FanGraphs and plug in what Steamer is projecting for Trout in 2014, we get:

Steamer basically sees Trout having a typical Trout season in 2014, which makes sense given how not close to the end of his prime he is. And if it’s WAR we’re focusing on, it’s worth noting that no hitter in history has ever compiled as much as 30 WAR through his age-22 season.

It’s whether said arbitration panel would care that’s the question.

Ken Rosenthal made a point of comparing WARs in discussing Trout and Howard, but it wouldn’t be in an arbitration panel’s character to do something like that. Here’s Maury Brown of BizofBaseball.com writing for FanGraphs in 2010:

Because the arbitration process ultimately could be determined by a panel of arbitrators, not of a baseball background but from the American Arbitration Association, no advanced stats are used to compare players. So, no WAR. No wOBA. What you get are the traditional stats, with the likes of OPS and WHIP just now making its way into the arbitration panel vernacular.

Other things that help in arbitration: awards and honors. The more of those a player has, the better.

Thus is it not surprising that Howard holds the record for a first-time arbitration payout. At the time, he was coming off a 47-homer, 136-RBI season in 2007. The year before, he had won the NL MVP after leading the league in homers (58) and RBI (149). The year before that, he won the Rookie of the Year.

Trout does have a Rookie of the Year. He might have an MVP by the time he goes to arbitration. What he won’t have are old-school counting stats to match the ones Howard had in 2008. The 27-homer, 83-RBI season Trout is projected to have in 2014 would pale in comparison to Howard’s 2007 season. Nor will Trout have the 129 homers and 353 RBI Howard had at the time.

On top of that is the complication that team performance (No. 6) matters. Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies won the NL East in 2007. Trout and the Angels might not be up to the task of winning a loaded AL West in 2014.

Point being: Trout may be looking to beat Howard’s payout this time next year, but using Howard as a comp to do so might not work. Not unless the arbitration panel were to play against type and buy into Trout’s sabermetric excellence.

We’d be having a different discussion if there was a recent and relevant test case for Trout, but there’s only one that might have been: Andrew McCutchen.

Like Trout, McCutchen is a center fielder with a good ability to get on base, good power, good speed and a good glove. The Pittsburgh Pirates star was heading into his final pre-arb season in 2012, at the end of which his service time was going to be somewhere in the 3.000 (years, days) range, the same place Trout is going to be after 2014.

McCutchen would have been in line for quite the payday given what he did in 2012: a .327 average, 29 homers, 20 stolen bases, 96 RBI, an All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a top-five MVP finish. But by that time, he was already taken care of.

The Pirates inked McCutchen to a six-year, $51.5 million contract in March of 2012, buying out his final pre-arb year, all three arbitration years and two free-agent years in the process. What would have been a relevant arbitration case for Trout was nixed. 

Darn. I guess this puts us in best-guess territory.

One thing the Angels might try to do is copy what the Cincinnati Reds did with Joey Votto in 2011: Just buy out three arbitration years in one fell swoop.

The Reds did that with a three-year, $38 million extension that paid Votto an average of $12.66 million per year. This was instead of the $7-ish million Maury Brown floated as a possible first-time arbitration payout. Votto‘s salary would have risen from there, so what the Reds did was buy a bigger package for cheap rather than a small package for cheap.

Maybe the Angels could do a three-year, $45-50 million pact with Trout. For him, that would mean good money coming his way even if his career took an unexpected turn for the worse. He’d also still be set to hit free agency after only his age-25 season. 

For the Angels, a deal like that would ultimately be cheaper than the $15-20-25 million progression that Bill Shaikin suggested for Trout’s arbitration years, and about in the range of the more conservative $12-16-20 million progression Ken Rosenthal floated. It could also make Trout receptive to talking a bigger, longer extension a short way down the road, just like the one Votto and the Reds pulled off in 2012.

But it’s up to Trout. If he gives off signals that the Angels have a better chance of buttering him up for an extension by playing his salary by ear on a year-to-year basis, then so be it. And rather than risk things getting messy in arbitration, the best thing for the Angels will be to reach fair compromises with Trout.

Starting in 2015, that would mean sucking it up and giving Trout a salary that would top the $10 million Howard got. Maybe an arbitration panel wouldn’t go for Trout as the best player in the universe based on the old-school stats, but it’s going to be in the Angels’ interest to not jerk Trout around.

What would get the trick done? Probably something in that $12-15 million range. For the heck of it, let’s call it an even (not actually “even,” but whatever) $13.5 million.

The line from A to B that I’ve drawn is a squiggly one. It would be less squiggly if it was obvious that Trout has a shot at topping Howard’s record first-year payout by going to arbitration, but the process’ notorious preference for old-school stats and individual honors make that no sure thing.

But since the Angels don’t want to risk souring their relationship with Trout, something will get done. Whether it’s a Votto-esque multiyear deal or a simple one-year compromise, the smart money’s on Trout getting his due.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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