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The majority of the top prospects at each position for the Texas Rangers won’t likely make their way up to the MLB until at least 2015.

One prospect who has a chance of making the Opening Day roster, per B/R’s MLB prospects lead writer Mike Rosenbaum in his January article, is Michael Choice. Choice could see himself as a platoon player at the designated hitter spot and in the outfield.

With the injury to Derek Holland, a prospect like first-round pick Alex Gonzalez could find his way to an extended roster spot on the MLB, which would negate his prospect status for 2015. Gonzalez, however, doesn’t have history on his side when it comes to making the majors less than one year after getting drafted.

According to Matt Stamp’s April 2010 article at Examiner.com, Darren Dreifort of the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1994 was the last player to skip the minor leagues prior to Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Leake doing it in 2010.

One player that will be considered a prospect in 2015 is catcher Jorge Alfaro. Alfaro is the Rangers’ No. 1 overall prospect and should start the season in Class A.

According to Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com, Alfaro is an “elite catching prospect.” With that being said, he should most likely end the 2014 season in Class AA or even Class AAA, but with Geovany Soto and J.P. Arencibia in Arlington as catchers, Alfaro won’t make it further.

Here’s a look at all the Rangers’ top prospects who will be the best at each position in 2015.

Information was gathered from the team’s affiliated site MLBPipeline.com/Rangers. All ETAs projected by 2013 Prospect Watch.

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According to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish (h/t Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball), the Texas Rangers are reportedly making progress in contract talks with right-handed starter Jerome Williams.

Cotillo reported that Williams could sign with the Rangers in the next couple of days. Cotillo‘s source said that talks between the two parties intensified after projected No. 2 starter Derek Holland’s recent knee injury. The source also told Cotillo that the deal would likely be for one year.

Williams was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Angels this offseason.

Well, signing him isn’t the ideal solution to replacing Holland in the rotation. That would be Masahiro Tanaka, the Japanese ace who would not only shore up Texas’ rotation now but also strengthen it beyond this season.

It was already expected that the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees would be the biggest dogs in a potentially massive bidding war for Tanaka. The Yankees need a quality starting pitcher, while the Dodgers seem to have full control of the United States Treasury.

The Rangers’ task of outbidding even just the Yankees got tougher with the recent news of Alex Rodriguez‘s 162-game suspension. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Yankees will clear up nearly $25 million in 2014 payroll because of the length of Rodriguez’s time out. So the Rangers likely won’t get their ideal fit to replace Holland.

It sure is hard to imagine that Yu Darvish‘s influence—although it likely holds some weight—is strong enough to equal the Yankees’ newly found mountain of cash.

If Texas signs Williams instead, he would likely be the favorite for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Admittedly, he is an average pitcher at best. But let’s take a look at what he could bring to the rotation.

Keep in mind that this potential signing is all about value. The question to ask is whether or not he can be effective for the price. Morris of Lone Star Ball believes that Williams would get between $1 and $2 million for that one-year deal.

First, Williams keeps the ball down, which is especially critical when pitching in Arlington. His last season with the Angels appeared to be an outlier, as he allowed 23 homers in 25 starts in 2013. But over his career as a starter, he has allowed just 79 homers in 2,952 plate appearances. That’s a home run rate of just 2.6 percent, which is pretty good.

I don’t think he can keep up that pace in Arlington. But remember, he wouldn’t have to shut down the opposing lineup but rather keep his own in the game.

The Honolulu native has an effective inside-out, sinker-cutter combination. He complements those two pitches with a respectable slider and changeup. His sinker sits around 92 mph, while his cutter usually reaches 87-89 mph.

So he has nice velocity and the stuff to hit the corners on both sides of the plate. Controlling both sides allows him to jam both righty and lefty batters, as well as make both sides chase. As a starter, he has a career .262 opponents’ batting average, which is probably passable.

Against righties over his career, he has pretty decent numbers. Righties have only hit .259 on him. Also, Williams has a serviceable strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.66 to the right side of the plate.

When you take a look at all of his numbers from the left side of the plate, he’s about the same pitcher. He’ll be better and worse in some categories, but lefties have only hit .265 against him.

He also brings a veteran mentality to the rotation. Granted, his overall record is just 42-47 with a 4.35 ERA, but he has much more experience as a starter than Nick Tepesch or Alexi Ogando and slightly more than even Colby Lewis.

Again, he isn’t a guy who is going to shut down the other team every time out. He does have the ability to be effective in any given start because of his sinker-cutter combo. Nothing he throws is straight, and that makes him just harder to hit.

For the record, I am not pronouncing Williams as the be-all and end-all solution to replacing Holland. He is not nearly a good enough pitcher to do that alone. The only two guys who could replace Holland by themselves are Tanaka and David Price.

If the Rangers don’t sign Tanaka, this three-month recovery process will be a committee effort behind the pillars of Yu Darvish, Martin Perez and hopefully Matt Harrison, whose smooth transition back to the rotation is needed now more than ever.

But, if Williams can be had for between $1 and $2 million, why not? His signing just might keep Ogando in the bullpen where he belongs.

Don’t make this any more than it is. At the end of the day, Williams is a depth option; at best, he will get around 20 starts. With the Rangers’ reloaded offense, that shouldn’t be the concern it would normally be when you consider his level as a pitcher.

What do you think of Williams? Sound off in the comments section below.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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According to this tweet by Anthony Andro of Fox Sports Southwest, the Texas Rangers‘ rotation took a huge blow Friday:

The Rangers must now work quickly to find a viable replacement in the No. 2 spot that Holland was expected to man. Without Derek Holland, this rotation is not World Series-caliber, and his extended absence likely knocks Texas down a level in the American League’s current pecking order of contenders.

That is, unless the Rangers go all-in and sign Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. Here are a couple of reasons the Rangers should now press harder than ever to sign Tanaka.

One: He is the only pitcher available in free agency who could adequately replace Holland until midseason, when he is expected to return to the rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana will be cheaper, but they both have been highly inconsistent over their careers.

Also, since Tanaka has never pitched in the majors he would have an instant advantage of unfamiliarity over hitters who have never faced him. He has an impressive repertoire, and although it isn’t as deadly as that of Yu Darvish, he will have the element of surprise on his side for at least the first part of this season.

He and Darvish would form a killer one-two punch at the top of the rotation, followed by Martin Perez, Matt Harrison and a No. 5 starter, which still seems up in the air.

Two: Tanaka made sense for Texas to begin with, even before Holland’s freak injury. He is 25 years old, which is generally a comfortable age to hand a guy a massive deal. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Tanaka could easily earn a deal in the $125 million range.

Before Holland’s injury, the Rangers probably would not have been in serious bidding for Tanaka. But their situation has become desperate. They must at least replace Holland’s production, and I don’t see any other free-agent option who could do that.

The Rangers will have the money needed to sign Tanaka. The team is entering into a 20-year television deal with Fox Sports Southwest that will pay it $3 billion over the life of the contract, which is worth $80 million per season. Per season.

This new deal should give the Rangers plenty more confidence in handing Tanaka an albatross contract. He would be here long term, and he would strengthen the rotation even more when Holland does return.

I’m on record here at B/R saying that Texas should pass on Tanaka. But the current situation couldn’t have taken a more dramatic turn. General manager Jon Daniels needs to take even more dramatic action now.

Signing Tanaka will repair the Rangers’ rotation for now until Holland returns. When Holland takes the mound again, the Rangers’ rotation would be the best in baseball.

This is about a short-term fix as well as long-term sustainability. Daniels needs to make this happen.

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Texas Rangers might be weighing trade options with bringing in a starting pitcher for replacing Derek Holland who is out until midseason after he suffered a knee injury on Tuesday.

Sportswriter Anthony Andro of FoxSportsSouthwest.com reported the news via Twitter.

Also per Andro, “Holland has had knee problems in the past but those were with his right knee. Tweaked in (start) in 2010 and again later that season.”

Holland is the projected No. 2 starter for the Rangers by MLB.com. You can see the full depth chart listed in the embedded image below also found on the Rangers’ website.

So where does this put the Rangers for the start of the 2014 season?

General manager Jon Daniels shouldn’t panic as the Rangers have a solid pitching staff. But, Holland’s health will be a big question moving forward for the team and the uncertainty might sway Daniels into making a move. What options does Daniels have?

The Rangers have Prince Fielder at first base and still have a chance to sign a free-agent bat.

Mitch Moreland could be on the trading block for the Rangers if they are looking to add another starter. Also, per staff writer Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times in a November 2013 article, Moreland could be a good fit for the Tampa Bay Rays. This might mean that David Price, who was once rumored to be on the trade market per Topkin, could make his way over to Arlington.

However according to Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune, the Rays are considering keeping Price on the team for the upcoming season.

They are willing to listen on Price, who has two seasons until free agency, but it’s going to take a lot — in terms of young talent — to get him. Fair conclusion: They haven’t been made a good-enough offer yet.

In essence, the Rays are waiting to see if someone makes it worth their while to trade Price and take the accompanying step back team-wise.

Are Moreland and possibly other prospects enough to reel in Price? Or, do the Rangers look towards free agency?

Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is in America looking to make the move to an MLB team per multiple reports. And via T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, the Rangers are monitoring the Tanaka situation closely.

There are also a couple of other available free agents out there in Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, but those two pitchers wouldn’t be a good enough fit to fill in as the No. 2 starter.

If the Rangers go after a pitcher now, it will certainly be someone who can make a difference in the long run especially when Holland is healthy. Jimenez and Santana are too shaky for the Rangers to bring in, but nonetheless Daniels could still look at them as free-agent options.

With Holland’s future unclear at the moment, what do the Rangers do moving forward? For a team that was unimpressed by Matt Garza in 2013, per columnist Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, the Rangers could strongly be looking to acquire Price for 2014 Opening Day.

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Updates from Saturday, Jan. 11

Richard Durrett of ESPN provides Derek Holland‘s description of what occurred:

It was Holland’s dog, Wrigley, a boxer, who caused the starter to buckle on the stairs of his home and injure his left knee badly enough that he needed arthroscopic surgery Friday morning to repair torn cartilage. 

“He was running up the stairs and clipped me,” Holland said Saturday. “I hit my knee on the step, and if it wasn’t for me grabbing the rail, I might have fallen all the way down the stairs and cracked my head open.”

—End of Update—

Original Text:

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Derek Holland could be out for some time after undergoing offseason knee surgery following a freak injury resulting from a hard fall at his home, according to The Dallas Morning News‘ Gerry Fraley on Twitter:

As The Fort Worth Star-Telegram‘s Drew Davison points out, Holland released a statement expressing his anguish following the mishap:

Losing the 27-year-old left-hander for an extended period of time is sure to hurt the Rangers in the early part of 2014. After all, Holland has won at least 10 games in each of the past three seasons with Texas, finishing 2013 with a career-best 3.42 ERA.

Holland has gone 49-38 in five seasons with the Rangers and boasts a 3-0 postseason record since 2010. 

Holland is heading into the third year of a five-year, $28.5 million contract with the Rangers that includes $11 and $11.5 million club options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons, respectively, according to Spotrac.com.

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There is only one spot left undecided in the Texas Rangers starting rotation for 2014.

It is presumably for the fourth or fifth spot. The team has three lefties in Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Matt Harrison, and Yu Darvish is the lone righty.

Last season, Harrison started the year at the top of the rotation and was followed by Darvish. It will be different when next season starts, but not much. Texas fans will get to see what the rotation would have looked like last season if it weren’t plagued with injuries.

So without further ado, here is the Rangers’ projected starting rotation for next season.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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Just when you think there are no more moves for the Houston Astros to make, they find a way to prove you wrong. 

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, catcher Jason Castro could be a prime trade candidate as a first-time arbitration-eligible player and the fact that the Astros have another young catcher in the big leagues they are high on in Max Stassi. 

Rival teams have inquired on Castro, according to major league sources. If the Astros cannot sign him to an extension, he could become the team’s best trade chip. The ‘Stros also could move him to first base.

Unless you paid close attention to the Astros last year, which would be a new kind of torture I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy, Castro’s performance went largely unnoticed in national circles. He hit .276/.350/.485 with 54 extra-base hits in 120 games last season. His 4.3 Fangraphs‘ Wins Above Replacement trailed only Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer and Buster Posey in 2013. 

At just 26 years old, Castro still has some upside left. He may not be able to duplicate that 2013 performance again, which was aided largely by a career-high .351 batting average on balls in play, but he’s also not going to cost much and won’t hit free agency until after 2016.

If the Astros do decide to move Castro, here are a list of suitors and potential trade packages that could be put together to make it happen. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. 

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On Wednesday, I projected how the Texas Rangers‘ revamped offense would look in 2014. Today is the second installment in the projection series: the rotation. Bullpen projections, the final piece of the series, will be coming soon.

As it stands now, Texas’ rotation has four set starters. The Rangers’ need for another quality starter is well-documented, and it is unknown what avenue the team will take to fill that need.

These projections will include the year I expect each of the four established starters to have. For purposes of simplicity, I will assume for now that the No. 5 spot in the rotation will be filled by committee, until and if the Rangers acquire another full-time starter. Therefore, I will project how that committee will perform as a whole.

Enjoy!

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On the one hand, the moves made by Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane this winter seem out of character for a team that had a payroll of $61.9 million in 2013. The team has spent money to bring in an experienced closer in Jim Johnson and also signed free-agent starter Scott Kazmir.

The $32 million dollars of investment may not sound like a lot when it is compared to the spending of the New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers this winter. But two of those teams reside in the AL West with the A’s and will likely continue to spend this season and next. 

What Oakland has done again is look at the market of players and their potential values.

The Baltimore Orioles viewed Johnson as too expensive an option for a team looking to save money this winter. Johnson is projected by MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes to make $10.8 million this season through arbitration and then become a free agent. Johnson was traded to the A’s in a deal reported by Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Instead of viewing Johnson’s one-year commitment as a negative, Beane has chosen again to view it as a strength. Johnson could be the piece to push the A’s over the top this season or he could be the piece to dangle at the trade deadline and get a huge return.

Oakland will be losing Grant Balfour and they are replacing him with a better pitcher. The cost was only Jemile Weeks, a player who never reached his potential in Oakland after a strong beginning in 2011. 

Selling a closer who has thrived in the tough AL East during his career and would only require a team to pay the remaining $5 million or so on his contract makes Johnson an extremely valuable commodity this summer. Six to eight teams could be in the market for someone like Johnson at the deadline. 

The 30-year-old Johnson is coming off of two seasons of 50-plus saves for the Orioles and should benefit moving into Oakland’s spacious stadium.

Signing Kazmir was first reported by ESPN’s Jim Bowden. The deal allowed the A’s to trade Brett Anderson to the Colorado Rockies in a move that was reported by Fox Sports’ Rosenthal.

Any move done by Oakland is done in conjunction with another move in mind. Anderson was a risk due to his injury history and his remaining $9.5 million salary. Trading Anderson now let Oakland get from underneath the majority of Anderson’s remaining salary, allowing the A’s to spend that money on the more dependable Kazmir. 

Kazmir pitched almost as many innings last season (158) as Anderson has pitched over the past three seasons (163). It is easy to understand why Oakland would want to move Anderson’s contract, especially after having spent $10.25 million over the past three seasons with very little return. Kazmir has had his injury struggles as well, but his fastball velocity seemed to return last season. 

Acquiring Kazmir also means that Oakland might be able to flip him during the the two-year contract, something the A’s always seem to be open to doing if it makes the team better.  

It’s not that Oakland is constantly looking to save money. The A’s are just looking to spend money on players who are more likely to return that investment. It’s how Oakland has managed to stay one step ahead of the MLB landscape. 

*Information used from Cot’s Baseball Contracts/Baseball Prospectus, Tim Dierkes/MLB Trade Rumors, Ken Rosenthal/Fox Sports, Baseball Reference, Jim Bowden/ESPN

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There are some Texas Ranger fans who believe that it could be in the team’s best interest to eventually trade shortstop Elvis Andrus.

Parting with Andrus, who was a core member of the 2010 and 2011 Rangers teams that made consecutive World Series appearances, would be an extremely difficult call to make.

But there are pretty fair arguments on both sides of the coin here.

Before I take a look at this, one critical point needs to be established: Andrus will not be traded this season or even next season.

This is a deal—if it were to happen—that wouldn’t happen for at least another couple of years. It may never happen. There certainly haven’t been any rumblings that Jon Daniels and the front office are considering it.

So with that said, let’s take a look at this question.

If the Rangers Eventually Trade Andrus

It would mean that Jurickson Profar would slide over to his home position at shortstop, where he would likely be more effective and comfortable.

Secondly, cutting ties with Andrus means that Roughned Odor would take over at second base, which is his natural position.

Obviously, this deal wouldn’t happen anytime soon because Odor is not major-league ready.

He is still probably a couple of years away from being able to play second base every day for the Rangers. The only way Daniels makes this move is if he has absolute confidence in Odor to be a major contributor for the club. 

Odor is a special prospect.

He is a complete player, whom I think has better potential hitting ability than Profar. Odor has shown an ability to maintain his impressive numbers even after transitioning minor league levels.

In 2013 with High A Myrtle Beach, Odor hit .305 with five homers and 59 RBI. He makes hard, square contact as his 17.7 percent strikeout rate is very solid for a 19-year old.

Odor was promoted to AA Frisco late in the year.

In 134 at-bats with the Rough Riders, he still hit .305 with six big flies and 19 RBI. His strikeout rate and walk rate remained almost identical, even at the next level. That is the sign of a special player. 

So it is believed that Odor will be ready for the Rangers in a couple of years. I have every confidence in his ability and hype. 

The single greatest advantage to dealing Andrus is salary relief.

After 2014, he will enter into his eight-year, $120 million contract extension that he signed right before the the start of last season. Many Ranger fans—myself included—were relieved that he wasn’t going to hit free agency, especially since the ever-daunting Scott Boras is his agent.

But many of these fans seriously questioned if Andrus was worth $15 million a year.

I always believed that the front office had to overwhelm Andrus early, in order to convince him to stay with Texas long-term. Andrus has shown noticeable improvement, but I still don’t think he is worth that money. 

It’s a contract that takes up a big space in the Rangers’ payroll.

That $15 million could be used to sign future free agent talent in the next few years.

Premier defensive shortstops with a developing bat and power don’t come cheap, however. The question that the Rangers need to ask is this: Can a middle infield of Profar and Odor in two to three years be more effective than a combination of Andrus-Profar now or next year?

One thing is for sure: Profar and Odor is a far, far cheaper duo.

What is Andrus’ ceiling? Realistically, how much more can he improve? At best, I see Andrus as a .280 to .285 hitter with 10 and 75 potential, who will play A-plus defense. Can Odor eventually produce more than that? Again, this is a question that will take much more time to answer.

Andrus has a 2018 opt-out clause in his contract. By then, he still won’t even be 30. He will be very attractive to several teams. He is a talented player with an impressive pedigree.

For now, though, Andrus and Profar are clearly set. But what if Odor has an all-star year in AA, gets promoted to AAA late in the year or early next season and continues his wild success? Daniels would have to seriously consider dealing Andrus in the future. 

If the Rangers Don’t Eventually Trade Andrus

They’d be keeping an all-star caliber shortstop, but would also likely be blocking Odor from breaking in with the Rangers unless Profar was traded in the next couple of years.

It’s perfectly reasonable to assume that unless either Andrus or Profar are moved, Odor may never see regular major-league time and could be traded.

Is Odor too talented for that? I think so.

Ultimately, if Texas doesn’t trade Andrus, it will be because they view him as the future face of the franchise.

At just 25, he has experience on the highest stage, starting in two World Series.  He is still a developing player at the plate and hasn’t reached his prime as a hitter. 

He’s taking noticeable strides with his bat.

Last season he started out slow average-wise, but it wasn’t because he was struggling to hit. He was roping the ball and making hard contact, but had terrible luck as balls generally went right to fielders. In the second half, he was making the same quality contact, but the balls started falling in and thus his average leaped quickly.

I expect more improvement from Andrus this season, particularly with his OBP. He should also steadily improve his power over the next couple of seasons, until he gets closer to his 10-homer plateau. If he does that, it might be even tougher for Daniels to deal him.

So long-term, this decision ultimately comes down to who has higher potential as a shortstop, Profar or Andrus? Odor will be a better second baseman than Profar because Odor is a natural second baseman. But can Profar be a better overall shortstop, both at the plate and defensively, than Andrus?

Short-term, this could be one of the things holding Daniels back from a David Price trade or a trade for any A-list pitcher.

That deal would most certainly require Profar, Martin Perez or both. If Daniels trades Profar for a big pitcher, Andrus won’t be going anywhere until at least 2018.

If the club were to deal Perez and others for Price, Andrus could be on the block for perhaps another quality pitcher to replace Perez a couple years later, while Profar and Odor form the middle infield. 

Boy, this is a crazy decision to make.

I’m not even sure I can decide here. I do believe the best way to begin making a decision on this is to closely monitor Odor’s progress throughout AA this year and in AAA in 2015. If Daniels and the front office are impressed enough, I could probably live with an Andrus trade. 

But it’s nearly an impossible call to make this offseason or at anytime during the 2014 season.

Decisions, decisions, decisions—both in the short- and long-term.

In the past and even early this offseason, many Ranger fans were irritated with Daniels’ tendency for patience with acquisitions. But the question of what to do with Andrus is one that clearly requires a lot of it. This would be a ground-shaking move for the franchise that must be thoroughly thought out.

Patience is what makes Daniels one of the best—possibly the best—GM in baseball. It’s part of what will keep this franchise in contention for the next several years.

What do you think? Do you think the Rangers should eventually trade Andrus?

*All stats and contract info courtesy of baseball-reference.com and MLB.com Texas Ranger prospect watch.

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