Kuzul

Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels is providing reasons for fans to be excited about the upcoming 2014 season.

The team will be looking to bounce back from its disappointing 2013 campaign that ended with a 5-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, a loss which kept the Rangers from making the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.

Daniels has been busy this offseason and has taken care of some issues that caused disruption last year. The improvements have created excitement and expectations for the club, like taking back the division and making the playoffs.

Here are three reasons why Texas fans should expect a better season in 2014.

Improved Lineup

The Rangers scored 808 runs in 2012, the most in baseball. Last year they dropped to No. 8 with 730 runs. Adrian Beltre was the only true threat throughout the season, especially after Nelson Cruz was hit with a 50-game suspension for PEDs.

But after a trade that brought in Prince Fielder and the signing of free agent Shin-Soo Choo, Texas has one of the better lineups in baseball.

Choo is one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, finishing fourth in OBP last season (.423). He also had a .285 batting average with 21 homers and 107 runs scored. He did strike out 133 times in 2013, but he also had 112 walks.

Not only did the Rangers find a leadoff hitter, they also got a feared power hitter in Prince Fielder. He batted behind Miguel Cabrera the previous two seasons but should now have Beltre protecting him the lineup. Fielder still hit 25 home runs and drove in 106 runs last season. He and Choo both bring .389 career OBPs to Arlington, an area that Texas struggled with in 2013.

The only questions left to be answered both are derived from the two young guys in the lineup. Jurickson Profar will most likely occupy second base now that Ian Kinsler is playing in Detroit. But now that the former No. 1 prospect has an everyday job, he should be able to find a long-term groove at the plate.

Leonys Martin will be looking to bounce back in 2014 after his first full stint with the Rangers. He hit just .260 last season but was a threat when he reached base, stealing 36 bags. He will most likely occupy the bottom of the lineup, as he did in 2013.

Rangers fans should expect an offense that resembles the lineups that helped this team reach the playoffs three years in a row.

Bullpen Almost the Same

With the exception of Joe Nathan, the Texas bullpen will look the same as it did in 2013.

The relievers for the Rangers were some of the most reliable in all of baseball. They tied the Arizona Diamondbacks with the most bullpen wins (35), had the fourth-best ERA (2.91) and gave up the third-fewest runs (159).

With Nathan gone, Texas will have a new closer at the helm. Luckily, the Rangers have a litter of capable arms. Tanner Scheppers, Joakim Soria and Neftali Feliz will all be battling for the job, and the last two have closing experience. If Alexi Ogando doesn’t occupy the final rotation spot, he can also set up or close.

The bullpen helped the Rangers sustain leads and keep them in ballgames when the offense struggled to put insurance runs on the board. With the improved lineup, the staff may end up with much more rest then last season.

A Healthy Rotation

Eleven different pitchers started at least two games last season for Texas, and only three hurlers had 20 or more.

One of those hurlers wasn’t even on the Opening Day roster. Martin Perez found his way into the rotation with a four-year contract extension after a good showing last year. He finished with a 10-6 record and a 3.62 ERA in 20 starts. He finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year vote but was arguably an MVP for Texas after injuries broke down the rotation.

Matt Harrison is making his return after multiple back surgeries cut his year short. He was a workhorse for the Rangers with two straight seasons of 30 starts in 2011 and 2012. Harrison will be a vital part of the rotation if he is as successful as he was prior to the surgeries.

With the improved lineup, Yu Darvish may be in line for a Cy Young. He finished second in voting last season with a 13-9 record and an MLB-best 277 strikeouts. He is at his best when he attacks and establishes his fastball, and he might be more comfortable doing that with better run support.

This team was able to win 91 games last season even though it was plagued with injuries and struggled to score runs. With a healthy rotation and improved lineup, the Rangers should find themselves back atop the AL West.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

You can follow Trey on Twitter @treydwarren

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The largest contract in MLB history stands at $275 million. What we’re here to discuss is the prospect of Mike Trout one day putting that to shame with a $400 million contract.

“Ridiculous” might be the first word that comes to mind. Or maybe one of those weird hybrid words like “absurdulous.”

But the possibility is neither ridiculous nor absurdulous, my friends. Considering what he has working for him, $400 million for Trout would actually be quite reasonable if the stars align just right.

We’ll get to that. But first, a bit of background.

To my knowledge, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports was the first to take a serious stab at forecasting a potential mega-contract for Trout. On the heels of the Los Angeles Angels superstar’s remarkable 2012 season, Passan wrote that Trout could one day have a “reasonable case” to be baseball’s first $300 million player.

But that was then. This is now, and what we know now that we didn’t know then is that Trout’s 2012 season was no tease.

Maybe you don’t need the numbers. But since they’re fun numbers to look at, we’ll look at them anyway. Here’s the good stuff from FanGraphs:

Trout’s not the best at everything. He’s just among the best at everything like nobody else in the league. He is baseball’s most dominant all-around player, and it’s scary how not close it is. Nobody else has compiled more than 15.0 WAR over the last two seasons.

Also scary is the fact that Trout’s only through his age-21 season. WAR-wise, nobody so young has ever been so good. FanGraphs has Trout’s 21.1 career WAR (2011 included, mind you) as the best ever for a player through the age of 21. So does Baseball-Reference.com.

In Trout, we’re witnessing a legit once-in-a-generation talent. Further, it’s OK to acknowledge that we’re witnessing a player who has a head start at becoming the greatest the game has ever known.

As such, it’s hardly surprising that ESPN’s Buster Olney has recently spoken to some people in the know who have been willing to get much more bold than Passan.

“Twelve years, $400 million,” one agent suggested shortly after the winter meetings. 

Olney subsequently spoke to a talent evaluator who scoffed at the notion at first. And then…

“But then you think about it,” he said. “Robinson Cano is a decade older than Trout and he just got $240 million. Trout is 22 years old and he’s a better player than Cano right now.”

Trout is so good right now that he’s worth more than the $33.3 million per year he would make in a 12-year, $400 million contract. Heck, he’s even worth more than the $40 million per year he would make in a $400 million deal over just 10 years.

We know this because FanGraphs has a handy way of converting WAR into dollar value. In the last two years, Trout has been worth:

• 2012: $44.9 million
• 2013: $52.1 million

Such is life when you’re a 10-WAR player. And right now, Trout’s the only player in MLB who would know.

Now, there’s no way we can know for certain that Trout’s going to keep it up. Maybe somebody will come up with a genius and easily copycatted solution for keeping him contained. If not that, maybe injuries will do the trick.

But since we’re being optimistic here, let’s take Oliver’s word for it.

Oliver is a projection system that, in the words of The Hardball Times, “uses a simple weighted mean of the previous three seasons, with aging factors and regression to the mean.” Via FanGraphs, here’s what the system sees for Trout over the next five seasons:

In other words, Trout is projected to be himself. And that makes sense, because we know he’s superbly talented and far from the highway to the danger zone that is the age of 30. Trout just needs to stay healthy.

The catch, if you’ll pardon the pun, is that Trout will very likely have to stay healthy to land a $400 million contract. If he’s going to get a deal like that, it will probably be a free-agent contract rather than an extension.

The Angels already have enough big-money players on their books. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver are all owed escalating salaries over the next several years. If the Angels are determined to stay under the luxury tax threshold, they need Trout to be as cheap as possible.

One thing the Angels could do is sign Trout to a deal that’s backloaded like crazy. But they already have a guy with a deal like that, as Pujols is owed $114 million over the final four years of his 10-year, $240 million contract. 

Besides which, Trout’s interests have to be considered. He might prefer a shorter extension that would allow him to hit free agency in his prime rather than a long extension that would cover his best free-agent years.

My guess is that something in the $200 million range is the most reasonable possibility for an extension for Trout, with $300 million probably being the Angels’ max. Trout could settle for something like that, or he could just wait until free agency.

Don’t be surprised if that’s what he chooses to do. His free agency isn’t that far off, and it promises to be worth the wait.

Trout is due for free agency after 2017. He’ll only be through his age-25 season if he gets there. Since most players hit the market in their late-20s or early-30s, Trout hitting the market in his mid-20s would make him the most attractive free agent since a guy named Alex Rodriguez in 2000.

If the Oliver projections for Trout come true, here’s how his free-agent resume would stack up against A-Rod’s when he went to free agency:

Trout would go to free agency a year older than Rodriguez was. If his Oliver projections come to fruition, he would also head to free agency with fewer career home runs under his belt.

But A-Rod’s advantages end there. It’s conceivable that Trout will head into free agency both more experienced and more accomplished than A-Rod was in 2000-01, which is saying a lot.

And if this is how it plays out, then a 10- or 12-year deal worth $400 million wouldn’t be nearly as absurd as the 10-year, $252 million contract A-Rod received from the Texas Rangers. Not relatively speaking, anyway.

While I couldn’t find data for the 2002 season, here’s how MLB’s average salary has progressed since the 2000 season, courtesy of data from the Associated Press:

The $252 million deal A-Rod signed was worth $25.2 million per year—or over 13 times what the average player was making the previous season. 

The $33.3 million per year Trout would earn in a 12-year, $400 million contract would be less than 10 times what the average player is making now. A 10-year deal worth $40 million per year would be worth just under 12 times what the average player is making now.

And again, this is now we’re talking about. The average MLB salary is going nowhere but up, and there’s more than enough money in the game now to make sure it keeps going up. The average salary could be $4 million come 2017, in which case a $40 million-per-year deal for Trout would be only 10 times as much as the average player’s salary.

Considering this, the following notion deserves to be thrown out there: Rather than $400 million, how about $500 million?

That’s the number we might be kicking around as a fair deal for Trout a couple years from now when his free agency is looming. If not, here’s guessing nobody will be hesitating to say $400 million. If it sounds fair now, it will certainly sound fair later.

Trout will be rolling the dice if he chooses the patient path that leads toward him striking it rich in free agency after 2017. There’s certainly a possible scenario out there that involves him rejecting a mega-extension and then watching his career tragically unravel.

But if Trout gets to free agency unscathed, he’ll find it worth his while. He would enter as the most attractive free agent to ever hit the open market and would very likely leave as baseball’s first $400 million man.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Last week I gave out grades for all of the transactions made by the Oakland Athletics. This week, I’m going to power rank them.

What’s the difference?

The grades were for all of the moves made—both big and small—for the A’s roster and for the minor league rosters. I also graded predominantly based on short-term repercussions (from right now through the end of the 2014 season).

This time around I will power rank with the long-term impact in mind (covering 2014 and beyond if applicable). I’ll also stick to the major trades and signings.

Considerations include the impact the incoming player will have long-term and a look at how much the loss of the outgoing player will hurt long-term.

Begin Slideshow

According to a source who has confirmed the deal to Greg Johns of MLB.com, free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo will be the newest Texas Ranger.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports also confirmed the deal through a source, in this tweet:

MLB.com’s report also indicates that Choo agreed to a seven-year deal worth $130 million. 

Earlier this week, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reported that Choo had turned down a seven-year, $140 million deal from the New York Yankees. The tweet seemed to leave many Ranger faithful doubtful that the team could sign Choo.

But despite any sour feelings, the Rangers were indeed able to grab one of baseball’s premier leadoff hitters. It was widely thought that general manager Jon Daniels would continue his waiting game a bit longer in an attempt to lower Choo‘s price. I certainly didn’t expect JD to make this move for at least another couple of weeks.

This was a situation of true compromise for JD and agent Scott Boras. It appears that both parties were able to get at least one advantage in the contract, while conceding another to make the deal work.

In the end, JD was able to bring Choo‘s price down by between $10 to $15 million, based on the figures reported by Passan, while Boras was still able to squeeze out a seven-year contract for his client. 

Last week, Morosi reported each team’s apparent limits quite clearly:

I know what many of you are thinking: $130 million is a steep price for a 31-year-old.

Remember, though, if the Rangers were going to sign Choo, it was going to take huge money. There was simply no way around that. In the end, this is a better deal for Texas than many of you might think.

Of course, JD having to go to the seventh year is not ideal. Five or six years would have been the best-case scenario. But like I said, both parties had to bend a bit, and Boras‘ concession appears to be less money per year.

Keep in mind that Boras is as tough as nails with contract negotiations. JD held his own admirably here.

Additionally, the Rangers will lose a first-round pick to Choo‘s former team, the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds extended Choo a qualifying offer earlier in the offseason, and a compensatory pick is attached to his signing with any other team.

Texas will get that pick back when Nelson Cruz signs elsewhere. 

But make no mistake: Choo was an absolute need for the Rangers. His signing not only gives Texas likely the best leadoff hitter in the American League, but it also puts the team in direct position to compete for the World Series for the next few seasons.

In my piece two days ago, I laid out the intricate details of how Choo will immensely add to this Rangers lineup. Take a look at that to get a complete breakdown of why Choo could very likely be the one missing piece for Texas.

Choo figures to slide into left field for the Rangers. That is obviously the primary benefit. But don’t underestimate the value of the secondary benefits in play here: Michael Choice is no longer in a potentially high-pressure situation. It was believed that he was the team’s top candidate to play left field, if Choo or Cruz wasn’t signed.

Now that an established and proven outfielder is roaming left, Choice has the advantage of possibly starting the year in Triple-A Round Rock and continuing his development.

Also, Choo‘s signing solidifies Mitch Moreland‘s role with the team. Especially after handing out a contract of that size, having a power source like Moreland for dirt cheap is a beautiful thing for the payroll.

I do believe that manager Ron Washington will call on him to give first baseman Prince Fielder a rest for a few games if needed. But I’m not expecting that to be often.

This signing should move center fielder Leonys Martin down in the batting order. As I’ve said in the past, he has a lightning uppercut swing, which gives him impressive bat speed but also opens up holes in it. He has a power stroke that could really be maximized hitting lower in the order. 

As it does for Choice, Choo taking over the leadoff spot puts Martin in a much more comfortable situation to continue developing as a hitter.

Finally, JD has eliminated the positional logjam, or potential for one, from every position. Every player now has a clear role and position.

I see this deal as one that addressed several team needs, just like the Fielder trade did. Here’s one way to look at it: For seven years and $130 million, JD solved every one of the Rangers’ remaining positional issues, whether it be personnel-related or just clearing out the lineup in general.

If you are still a bit shell-shocked for the worse, here’s what the Ranger lineup could look like in 2014: 

• LF Shin-Soo Choo, and his .423 OBP from last year
• SS Elvis Andrus
• 1B Prince Fielder
• 3B Adrian Beltre
• RF Alex Rios
• DH Mitch Moreland
• C Geovany Soto
• CF Leonys Martin
• 2B Jurickson Profar

Bench:

• C JP Arencibia
• UTL Adam Rosales
• OF Engel Beltre

At first glance, the 7-9 portion of the order may appear a bit weak. The important thing to remember here is that the Rangers are counting on the development of both Profar and Martin. I fully expect both to make significant jumps at the plate this season.

In general, this lineup has the look of one of the most complete in baseball. Speed at the bottom and top, and a nice power element with Choo. Speed is also in the middle with Alex Rios. There is an impressive barrage of power in the heart of the order with Fielder, Beltre and Moreland. Rios also has some pop in his bat.

If Profar and Martin play even close to their expectations for 2014, this team can seriously contend for a World Series. That isn’t quite as a big of an “if” as you might think. Martin showed inspiring flashes in 2013, as did Profar.  

Hitting at the bottom of the order allows those two guys to succeed in a position they are comfortable in. That’s the key with this team now: Choo may have a plethora of roles, and he does, but every player is now cemented into his spot offensively. Each guy brings something to the table.

The mantra of this club should now really be: just get on base. 

The “Choo Choo Train,” as he has been called, does that better than almost anyone on the planet. Everyone else simply needs to follow suit.

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In the long run, it’s hard to know how the Texas Rangers‘ decision to dole out over a quarter of a billion dollars to Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo will work out. In 2014, though, the team arguably boasts the best lineup in MLB.

What makes the addition of Choo such a shrewd move for the Rangers is that the 31-year-old is equally at home in both table-setting and table-clearing roles. In 2013, Choo posted a .423 OBP, which was the fourth best in all of baseball. He also clubbed 21 home runs and produced a .462 slugging percentage.

That means that Rangers manager Ron Washington can plug Choo into the leadoff spot or drop him into a run-producing role. Here’s what the Rangers lineup projects to be with Choo leading off:

• Choo, LF
• Elvis Andrus, SS
• Adrian Beltre, 3B
• Prince Fielder, 1B
• Alex Rios, RF
• Mitch Moreland, DH
• Geovany Soto, C
• Leonys Martin, CF
• Jurickson Profar, 2B

The other option would be utilize Martin in the leadoff role and to push Choo further down the lineup:

• Martin
• Andrus
• Choo
• Beltre
• Fielder
• Rios
• Moreland
• Soto
• Profar

Any lineup with Fielder in the fifth spot will be a nightmare for opposing pitchers. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports remarks, “My goodness is the Rangers’ potential lineup scary.” But is it necessarily the best in all of baseball?

In 2013, the Boston Red Sox could stake a claim to that honor. The World Series champions posted a .795 OPS as a team, which was No. 1 in all of baseball. While the Red Sox have retained a major run producer in Mike Napoli, the team has lost a major run provider in Jacoby Ellsbury. In 2013, Ellsbury scored a team-leading 92 runs while posting a .355 OBP and swiping 52 bases in 56 attempts. 

In 2013, the Detroit Tigers also had one of the best lineups in MLB. The club’s collective .785 OPS was second only to the Red Sox. Like Boston, though, the Tigers have also suffered a major defection this offseason. The club managed to get out from under Fielder’s massive contract, but his high level of production will be heading out of town as well. 

Miguel Cabrera will step in for Fielder at first base, and top prospect Nick Castellanos will take over at third base. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Castellanos is the 11th-best prospect in all of the minor leagues. Still, to expect a player who posted a .793 OPS in Triple-A last year to produce at Fielder’s level is a serious reach.  

It’s also worth noting that the Tigers haven’t necessarily improved at second base, either. Check out how Omar Infante‘s stats from 2013 compare to those of Ian Kinsler:

• Infante: .318/.345/.450, 10 home runs
• Kinsler: .277/.344/.413, 13 home runs

The Tigers clearly added some major payroll flexibility this offseason but at the cost of weakening the lineup in 2014. 

The Rangers, meanwhile, have followed the exact opposite approach. The team has opened itself up to some serious exposure by taking on seven-year contracts for both Fielder and Choo. By around 2017, neither one of those deals is likely to be terribly favorable for the Rangers.

In 2014, though, Texas will have the most dangerous lineup in baseball. 

Note: Stats via Baseball-Reference.com.

If you want to talk baseball find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck. 

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As was reported earlier today by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo has agreed to sign a seven-year, $130 million deal with the Texas Rangers. There’s no doubt that Choo‘s value comes from his ability to get on base, so the big contract for a player without gaudy power numbers is unusual. 

Based on the Moneyball philosophy, Choo is theoretically worth the money, but isn’t the entire point of the Moneyball philosophy that you don’t have to spend a lot of cash to get underrated production? A deeper look into Choo‘s 2013 numbers can shed some light on whether or not he deserves the mega contract that he received. 

Choo‘s 2013 Stats (via Baseball Reference): 

.285/.423/.885 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs, 107 runs and 20 steals. 

Certainly the fact that Choo does everything pretty well contributed to the fact that he got such a big deal. Basically, you’re not going to see a guy get almost $20 million annually for hitting 21 home runs. By the same coin, a player isn’t going to get a big contract for hitting .285 or stealing 20 bases.

However, when you group Choo‘s slightly above-average power with his ability to get on base, steal bases and score runs, he’s worth the money that he got. 

The real question is whether or not Choo can perform through his entire contract. He will be 38 by the end of his deal and his legs are going to be starting to go by then. Obviously, that takes away a major part of his value. Clearly, though, as shown by huge contracts given to 30-somethings such as Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano, teams are willing to pay more later to win now. 

In the end, a player is worth as much as he can command on the open market and Choo majorly cashed in today. This contract for a player whose bread and butter is getting on base and scoring runs is a testament to the changing nature of team-building philosophy.

Perhaps due in part to the popularization of Moneyball economics, guys who can get on base and score runs are now valued equally with guys who can hit 50 home runs a season.

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After already addressing their need for a big bat in the middle of the lineup by trading for Prince Fielder, the Texas Rangers got one more gift in time for Christmas by reportedly signing free agent Shin-Soo Choo. 

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports broke the news, reporting Choo‘s deal with Texas will be for seven years and $130 million:

Shin-Soo Choo has deal with rangers. 7 years. details to come.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 21, 2013

Choo deal is for $130M with texas

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 21, 2013

If you are keeping track at home, the addition of Choo will give the Rangers a 2014 lineup that looks something like this:

The possibilities for that group are incredible because of the combination of established stars (Choo, Andrus, Beltre, Fielder) and young players who should continue to grow (Profar). However, I would caution before proclaiming the Rangers favorites in their own division, let alone the favorites to reach the World Series. 

One thing everyone has associated with Rangers baseball is offense. They play in one of the best hitting environments baseball has to offer. 

But last season saw a regression from the lineup that hindered their ability to keep up with the Oakland A’s in the American League West and Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Indians in the wild-card race. 

The Rangers finished seventh in batting average (730) and slugging percentage (.412), eighth in runs scored (730) and 10th in on-base percentage (.323). Those are numbers most teams would love to have, but they’re unacceptable by Texas’ standards.

With Choo and Fielder, the Rangers have added two players whose collective on-base percentage in 2013 was .392. Choo finished fourth in baseball with a .423 OBP. 

The Rangers boast a lineup that should be able to compete with any team over 162 games, so what’s the problem?

For starters, the American League is insanely deep right now. The A’s are still, at least on paper, the best team in the division. Billy Beane has been working his magic, assembling one of the deepest bullpens in the league and replacing Bartolo Colon with Scott Kazmir.

The A’s finished fourth in runs scored in 2013, despite injury-plagued seasons from Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes. 

The Boston Red Sox may have lost Jacoby Ellsbury, but they brought back Mike Napoli and will have a full season from Xander Bogaerts. That offense was so much better than any other in baseball last year, scoring 57 more runs than the Detroit Tigers.  

The Tigers may have lost Fielder, but they’ll get better on defense with Miguel Cabrera moving to first base, Jose Iglesias entrenched at shortstop and, presumably, star prospect Nick Castellanos taking over at third base. Their top three starters (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez) are as good as it gets. 

Even a team like Tampa Bay, which sits behind that big trio at the top, is in the mix. The Rays will have their first full-season look at what Evan Longoria and Wil Myers can do in the middle of a lineup. 

Then there are teams that have made upgrades this offseason, like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angeles and Seattle Mariners. The Mariners and Angels are still behind Oakland and Texas in the AL West, but the gap has closed between those teams in the last two weeks. 

The Yankees are going to have a very good offense, assuming Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira can stay healthy and, in A-Rod’s case, avoid a year-long suspension. But that pitching staff has the potential to explode in spring training. 

There are also significant flaws remaining in the Rangers’ lineup that could easily come back to haunt them. 

For instance, Choo gets destroyed by left-handed pitching. He had a .612 OPS against southpaws in 2013, compared to 1.011 vs. righties. Mitch Moreland has had a similar problem throughout his career, hitting just .657 against lefties. 

Leonys Martin has a career .306 on-base percentage, as well as huge platoon splits (.738 OPS vs. RHP; .569 vs. LHP). 

The catching tandem of Geovany Soto and J.P. Arencibia could slug .450, but they’ll also post a collective on-base percentage of .320, which is probably optimistic. 

Jurickson Profar has to be close to the player everyone expected him to be in 2013. That didn’t happen largely because manager Ron Washington didn’t give him regular playing time. 

Profar seemed to lose a lot of fans last year, despite entering 2013 as the consensus top prospect in baseball and being just 20 years old. He would have more value as a shortstop, but the Rangers are set at the position, and Profar isn’t going to be a slouch at second base, with plus defense, 15-18 homers (at peak) and a .290/.360/.450 slash line. 

Choo‘s ability to get on base, combined with the solid performance of Andrus in the No. 2 slot, will ensure that Beltre and Fielder each drive in at least 100 runs. (I shudder to think about the number of sacrifice bunts Washington will have Andrus lay down in 2014 with Choo getting on base 40 percent of the time.) 

Moving onto the pitching side of things, I’m not sure how confident the Rangers should be with their current group.

Yu Darvish is a monster in the No. 1 spot, but there are a lot of questions in the rotation behind him. Derek Holland had his best season in 2013, posting a 4.8 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement, a 3.42 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 213 innings. 

Consistency has never been Holland’s friend. The 27-year-old did learn to trust his slider more in 2013, throwing it a career-high 24.4 percent of the time. If that adjustment yields more results like we saw last year, it gives the Rangers a strong one-two punch. 

Martin Perez won’t turn 23 until April and has shown signs of being a quality starter in his brief MLB tenure, but he has just 162.1 innings of experience under his belt and isn’t missing as many bats as you would like from a young lefty who averages 93.6 mph with the fastball. 

Matt Harrison threw just 10.2 innings last season, while Alexi Ogando has never shown the ability to last as a starter and has more upside out of the bullpen. 

The team also lost closer Joe Nathan to the Tigers and figure to go with a combination of Joakim Soria and Neftali Feliz, both coming off Tommy John surgery in 2012, at the end of games next year. 

Choo‘s deal certainly addresses one of the two biggest holes the Rangers had at the end of 2013, but it does not make them World Series favorites. They still have a lot of questions to answer, and teams to climb over, before we can put them in that category. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985

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It doesn’t look like Nelson Cruz or Shin-Soo Choo will be playing for the Texas Rangers in 2014.

During an interview on KRLD-FM The Fan’s Ben and Skin show, general manager Jon Daniels said he expected the Prince Fielder trade to be the biggest move they make this winter (via the Dallas Morning News). That answer came after he was asked about conversations with Cruz and Choo.

But should it be the biggest move?

Of course not, but it all depends on whether Daniels is willing to make another one. It would make sense to bring in at least one of the aforementioned players.

Based off the 2013 season, Choo would be the best option to spend money on.

Daniels has shown he is less willing to give players long-term deals, especially after the age of 30. He did sign Elvis Andrus to an eight-year extension, but the shortstop was 24 when he signed it in April. Fielder has seven years left on his deal, but four of those seasons will be discounted thanks to the $30 million the Tigers sent with him.

Scott Boras, Choo’s agent, is famous for trying to get the longest and largest deal possible for his clients. He got Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year deal worth $153 million with the Yankees 10 days ago.

That seems to be the only thing standing in the way of the Rangers landing Choo.

It may be the time to just go ahead and give him the seven years they want. Besides the stolen base department, Choo’s numbers are more impressive then Ellsbury’s.

Choo has a career .288 batting average and a .389 OBP and averages 20 homers per 162 games.  Although he struck out 133 times, he walked 112 times last season and led the National League with 26 hits-by-pitch. In a nutshell, he gets on base and produces runs.

The South Korean has stolen 20 or more bases in four of the past five seasons. He has had 31 or more doubles and has scored at least 81 times in the same time frame, including a career high of 107 runs in 2013.

Choo could easily improve on those numbers if he signed with the Rangers. He has Andrus, one of the best bunters in the game, to move him over, followed by Fielder and Adrian Beltre to bring him in. Plus, Choo is one of the better defensive right fielders in the big leagues.

That means moving Alex Rios to left field, but that shouldn’t be too much of a factor. If you are going to pay a guy like Choo, you put him at his best position.

It may not happen, but Texas should pull the trigger on Choo. He is an established leadoff hitter who would improve the lineup and the outfield.

It’s time for Daniels to show him the money.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

You can follow Trey on Twitter @treydwarren

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The old adage of “you win some, you lose some” sure rings true when it comes to the moves the Oakland Athletics have made so far this offseason. Assembling a bullpen of this caliber could be an A+ by itself. But the A’s failed to fill crucial holes with big trade chips.

The starting rotation is young and talented.

Bartolo Colon was the lone veteran of the staff, but he became a free agent. Rather than look internally, the A’s filled Colon’s spot in the rotation with another free agent.

The bullpen was outstanding in 2013. At times there were moments when fans were forced to hold their breath, but in general, they were a force to be reckoned with. And Grant Balfour’s consecutive win streak was the icing on the cake. Unfortunately, he too is a free agent, so the A’s went ahead and filled his spot through a trade.

On paper, the lineup is filled with quality hitters from Yoenis Cespedes to Brandon Moss. But with so many question marks—can Josh Donaldson and Jed Lowrie repeat career years?—it would have been wise to solidify this lineup.

They didn’t.

Instead, Oakland made one strength stronger and one weakness weaker. All the while they tinkered with the farm.

As we head into the holiday break, see how well the A’s did on their end-of-year finals.

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At first glance the numbers seem preposterous; $400 million for a single player? 

Not even Alex Rodriguez‘s gaudy $275 million figure comes close. Not a single player in Major League Baseball history has ever even cracked the $300 million mark.

In fact, Rodriguez ranks both first and second when it comes to all-time record salaries. His previous 10-year, $250 million contract comes in second.

Albert Pujols couldn’t crack $300 million when he reached free agency. He wound up signing for 10 years and $240 million with the Los Angeles Angels.

Robinson Cano attempted to become the first player to reach $300 million when his agent, Jay-Z, asked the Yankees for such a figure during the regular season, but he fell short and also landed at 10 years and $240 million this offseason (still the third-largest contract in history by the way, not too shabby for falling short).

Then there’s Mike Trout.

ESPN’s Buster Olney posed the question, could Trout become baseball’s first $400 million man? (Insider access needed).

The 22-year-old is already entering his third full season in 2014, fourth overall if you count the 40 games he played in 2011 as a 19-year-old, and will reach arbitration for the first time following this coming season. 

There’s no doubt that Trout will shatter every arbitration salary record if the Angels do not come to terms with him on a contract extension between now and next offseason. At 22 years old, he already boasts a Rookie of the Year award, a pair of All-Star appearances, a pair of Silver Slugger Awards and two runner-up finishes in MVP balloting. 

In his piece for ESPN, Olney quotes an anonymous agent as recommending that Trout and his agent do the unprecedented and ask for a 12-year, $400 million contract. This would pay Trout an average of $33.33 million per season. 

I asked a long-time agent who does not represent Trout what he might ask for in a negotiation for a multiyear deal, and he paused for a few moments, like someone savoring a good piece of steak. 

“Why not do something that’s never been done before?” he asked rhetorically. 

What do you mean? 

“Twelve years, $400 million.” 

Considering his age and that he is already arguably the best player in the game, and he hasn’t even reached his peak yet, it’s very hard to argue that he won’t become the first player to crack the $30 million per season mark anyway, making the suggestion, actually, somewhat considerable from the Angels’ standpoint.

If the Angels were to bypass the arbitration process and give him the record-shattering 12-year contract now, the pact would take them to his age-34 season, still young enough that they shouldn’t see the type of decline that has come along with other 10-year contracts—something the Angels could be wary of following their current deals with Pujols and Josh Hamilton (5 years, $133 million).

At 26 years old when he reaches free agency, there’s no doubt that Trout will still command a 10-year deal and could push beyond that if he hasn’t suffered any injuries and proves durable. How much more will his stock rise if the Angels choose to save a little now by going the arbitration route and limiting him to salaries in the $15-20 million range rather than ponying up and making him the highest-paid player in the game?

Really, by the age of 22, only Pujols and Rodriguez compare to Trout in terms of modern day salary negotiations. Rodriguez was 25 when he reached his then-record-setting deal of 10 years, $250 million with the Texas Rangers back in 2001. Add 16 years worth of inflation to that number and the presumption that Trout is beyond reproach in performance-enhancing drug (PED) discussions and you have the makings for a figure well above $300 million at the 10-year mark.

Pujols didn’t sign his deal until his age-32 season to begin 2012, exemplifying the type of inflation that came over the 11-year gap between his deal and the original A-Rod deal. A-Rod’s second 10-year pact, signed in 2008, was also in his age-32 season. 

Even Cano’s deal this offseason came in his age-31 season and will take him through the age of 41. 

Subtract the 10-year age difference, all those years of peak productivity, and you are left with Trout’s impending mega payday. Twelve years and $400 million just isn’t that shocking at that point, especially with him only at age 34 by the end of the deal, instead of into his 40’s.

In general, these 10-year mega deals handcuff the teams and have not proven to be worth it long term. In the case of Trout, though, someone is definitely going to hand him the largest payday in the history of the sport soon, so it might as well be the Angels. 

The risk with Trout is not a decline in production due to age as has been the case with A-Rod, Pujols and even Hamilton (and likely will be the case with Cano). Sure, he could wind up regressing, but history does not suggest that would be the case. The risk in such a deal with Trout would be injury, and teams take out insurance policies on such deals that would help cushion that risk and not cost the Angels should he become injured and not able to play out his contract. 

Having jumped in on both Pujols and Hamilton on mega deals the past couple of seasons, it would be a PR nightmare to not take the gamble on Trout and watch another team give it to him instead. 

Spend the money now and lock him up. Forget the short-term savings, give him 12 years and $400 million and hope he returns the favor in his age-34 season and signs a more team-friendly deal as he acknowledges that he is entering the twilight of his career. 

Trout can become the Derek Jeter of the West Coast and spend his entire career in one uniform. He is already set to become the new face of baseball when Jeter hangs up his cleats. 

As eye-popping as the number may be, it would be more costly to risk allowing a bidding war start when he reaches free agency. 

The Angels will profit from making Trout an Angel for life and the $400 million will come out looking like a wise investment.

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