Tag: AL West

MLB Preseason Evaluation Series: 2013 Texas Rangers

This series will evaluate one team per day, starting on Jan. 23 and ending on Feb. 22 (the first game of spring training). It is based on last season’s performance, the offseason changes since then and the author’s outlook for the team in 2013. Please keep in mind that rosters can, and will, change before Opening Day. We started in the American League East, worked across to the National League, tackled the Central divisions, and now jump to the AL West, going in alphabetical order. Next up, the Texas Rangers.

 

2012 finish: 93-69 (2nd place, AL West — lost to Baltimore Orioles in Wild Card play-in game)

 

Notable additions

RHP Jason Frasor, RHP Randy Wells, RHP Evan Meek, RHP Joakim Soria, RHP Josh Lindblom, RHP Kyle McClellan, 1B Lance Berkman, C A.J. Pierzynski

 

Notable losses

RHP Barret Loux, RHP Mike Adams, RHP Mark Lowe, RHP Ryan Dempster, RHP Scott Feldman, RHP Koji Uehara, RHP Roy Oswalt, OF Josh Hamilton, 3B Michael Young, C Mike Napoli

 

Why they will improve this year

Losing Hamilton and Napoli will take a chunk out of the Rangers’ offensive output in 2013, but this is still a very solid team. The starting rotation should get a boost from a second year of growth out of Yu Darvish and improved seasons from Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando.

I like the bullpen a lot, and think adding Soria will turn out to be a coup in Arlington. But how can the Rangers improve from last year’s 93-win club after losing their biggest bat? Well, it’s still a team that was first in the league in runs scored and second in team batting average.

David Murphy should get full time action for the second straight year with that open spot in the outfield, and they did bring in Berkman to provide a little bit of pop. I still expect Texas to be in the top three or four teams in run production and home runs next season, and could even end up in the top two of batting average again.

But where the Rangers could really thrive in 2013 is in the rotation. It’s still a group with a few question marks, but Darvish and Ogando should have good seasons and if Holland finally figures out how to consistently get his pitches in the right spots, they may have a studly top four. If Martin Perez does snag the fifth spot as I expect and lives up to half the hype surrounding him, the rotation improves even more.

 

Why they will regress this year

You can’t understate how big of a loss Hamilton is. He had an up-and-down career with the Rangers and the fans seemed to have a mostly love or hate relationship with the oft-injured, streaky slugger. But the fact remains that he was good for a solid average, 30 homers and 100 RBI every season.

I do like Murphy, but he will not replace the production that Hamilton brought to the lineup. One saving grace could be a healthy season from Nelson Cruz, but with his name involved in the newest PED scandal, will he avoid a suspension? Pierzynski is a downgrade offensively from Napoli but brings a massive defensive upgrade.

The Rangers also will miss Young, who was a threat for 200 hits every year. Replacing him with the brittle Berkman and expecting any kind of significant numbers after his 2012 season is a bad bet. And looking to Mike Olt, Jurickson Profar, and any other young bat that may come up to fill offensive deficiencies right away is ambitious at best.

The bullpen looks very solid, but do the Rangers really have a bona fide ace in the rotation? Will Darvish improve upon his 2012 numbers? Will Holland finally put together a full, solid season? Can Perez live up to his Johan Santana comparisons, or will he scuffle like he has in the minors lately? 

The worst-case scenario is that Berkman and Pierzynski hardly add to the offense at all, Cruz misses time, the prospects struggle, and the only pitcher doing anything positive is Harrison. It could be a bust of a season if any major injuries hit, as the Rangers are already on thin ice with certain parts of the roster.

 

The outlook for 2013

I’m not sure why I believe in the Rangers this year. They missed out on all the major free agents they needed and only brought in decent replacements for Napoli, Young and Hamilton. I have major questions about the middle and end of the rotation, too.

But for some reason, I believe the Rangers will be deeply involved in the playoff hunt again in 2013. I don’t think they are as good as the Angels and will get a run for their money from Oakland and Seattle, but the Rangers have been here before. Ron Washington will do what he has to do to ensure that they are competitive even with the lost offense.

Murphy is a guy that I think will have a big year, and if Berkman stays healthy he could also put up some solid numbers. One reason I foresee Texas being competitive is that they still boast a talented, professional lineup, even if they did sacrifice some power. 

Overall, an order with Cruz, Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and Berkman will do some damage. The rotation will be middle of the pack but can ride the top two guys at least deep into the pennant race. It’s the opinion of this writer that the Rangers finish second in the AL West and lose a tiebreaker to the Royals for the second Wild Card spot in 2013. Their roster really is set for the next half-decade with that deep farm system, though.

 

Potential changes before Opening Day

According to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, the Rangers are on the lookout for a backup utility infielder to mostly spell Andrus at shortstop. With short, second and third all filled by former All-Stars, a lot of free agent infielders are reluctant to sign in Texas at risk of not having playing time.

The better option may be for the Rangers to promote from within, as they have Profar and Leury Garcia who could come off the bench and make an impact. According to Sullivan, Ryan Theriot might be an option the Rangers explore.

I’ve suggested this move for most teams that need another pitcher, but I’d like to see the Rangers at least inquire about Kyle Lohse. The price is high, but it would legitimize their rotation and make them a favorite in my mind to return to the playoffs in the American League.

 

Biggest surprise: Lance Berkman

Biggest disappointment: Nelson Cruz

Bold prediction: Yu Darvish brings his ERA down around 3.30, WHIP to 1.15 

 

Projected lineup

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Elvis Andrus, SS

3. Adrian Beltre, 3B

4. David Murphy, LF

5. Nelson Cruz, RF

6. Lance Berkman, DH

7. A.J. Pierzynski, C

8. Mitch Moreland, 1B

9. Craig Gentry, CF

 

Projected rotation

1. Matt Harrison, LHP

2. Yu Darvish, RHP

3. Derek Holland, LHP

4. Alexi Ogando, RHP

5. Martin Perez, LHP

 

Projected finish: 88-74, 2nd place

 

For more preseason evaluations:

 

AL East AL Central AL West
Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox Cleveland Indians Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees Detroit Tigers Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays Minnesota Twins [Texas Rangers]
NL East NL Central NL West
Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs [Arizona Diamondbacks]
Miami Marlins Cincinnati Reds [Colorado Rockies]
New York Mets Milwaukee Brewers [Los Angeles Dodgers]
Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates [San Diego Padres]
Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals [San Francisco Giants]

*Teams [in brackets] have not yet been evaluated.


You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @Jamblinman.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


LA Angels: 2013 Projections for Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton

With the disappointment of the 2012 season in the rear-view mirror, the Los Angeles Angels will look to turn the page. Leading the charge in 2013 will be their dynamic offensive, which is headlined by Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.

The three stars together account for 15 All-Star Game selections, 10 Silver Slugger awards, four MVP awards, two Rookie of the Year honors and two batting titles.

Added to their responsibilities: The hopes and dreams of bringing another World Series crown to Southern California.

In the offseason, the Angels shelled out a five-year, $125 million deal for Josh Hamilton to try to make that dream become a reality.

With Trout batting leadoff and Pujols-Hamilton batting 3-4 this season, the Angels will have one of the most menacing trios in baseball history at the top half of their lineup.

Considering that Trout, Pujols and Hamilton account for a $34 million chunk of the 2013 payroll, the pressure to perform will certainly accompany each and every at bat.

Below is a look at their stats from last year and my projected stats for them 2013.

Mike Trout 

2012 Stats: 

G     AB     R     H     2B     3B     HR     RBI     BB     SO     SB     AVG   

139  559  129   182    27      8       30      83       67     139     49      .326     

 

2013 Projected Stats:

G     AB     R     H     2B     3B     HR     RBI     BB     SO     SB     AVG                

161  651   145   210   29      7      33      96       73      164     58     .322

 

Analysis: Mike Trout’s 2012 rookie campaign was historic. He led MLB in runs scored (129) and stolen bases (49). He also surprisingly led all of baseball in Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement statistic at 10.7 (the WAR statistic is a single number that presents the number of wins a player added to a team above what a replacement player would add).

Since the end of the 19th century, only pitcher Dwight Gooden had a higher WAR statistic as a 20-year-old in 1985.

Clearly, Mike Trout’s production at the leadoff position was tremendous in 2012. The Angels will look for him to have similar success in an expanded role this year. If he can avoid injury, look for Trout to play more than last year.

 

 

With more games played will come more at bats and more production for the talented 21-year-old. Trout will likely join the 30-50 club and be a mainstay in the 2013 MVP race.

With his speed and ability to put the ball in play, Trout’s batting average figures to remain above .320. His runs total will come close to 150 with RBI-machines Pujols and Hamilton batting behind him in the lineup.

Trout’s strikeout total, likely to rise above 150 this year, is the only pause for concern in his 2013 projections. However, as long as his slugging (.564 last year) and on-base percentages (.399) remain strong, strikeouts will certainly be forgiven.

 

Albert Pujols

2012 Stats:

G      AB     R     H     2B     3B     HR     RBI     BB     SO     SB     AVG                

154   607    85   173    50      0      30      105     52       76      8       .285

 

2013 Projected Stats:

 

G      AB     R     H     2B     3B     HR     RBI     BB     SO     SB     AVG                

158   624    96   187    51      0      35      124     57      79       6       .299

 

Analysis: Albert Pujols is coming off perhaps his worst batting season since entering the big leagues in 2001, largely in part to a dismal April start where he hit only .217 with no home runs.

When looking back on his numbers from 2012, it is amazing to think that Pujols still managed to hit 30 home runs and 100-plus RBI despite his early season struggles. The three-time National League MVP admitted to pressing early on in the season in an attempt to try to live up to past production.

About last year’s slow start, Pujols said, “I spread the strike zone a little bit, tried to hit a two-run homer with nobody on base. It happens.” 

In the offseason, Pujols had a clean-up procedure on his right knee. As of the start of spring training, he is still rehabbing from the surgery and is admittedly “easing into” baseball activity. He plans to be ready for the start of the 2013 season.

 

 

 

Assuming the 33-year-old slugger enters the season healthy, look for him to regain his elite hitting status in 2013 as his familiarity with American League pitching increases. He will lead the club with around 35 home runs and 124 RBI. With Mike Trout and Erick Aybar batting ahead of him, Pujols should see many opportunities to clear the bases.

Pujols’ production in the three hole will likely determine how the Angels do as an offensive unit. If he falters like he did early last year, another 6-14 start for the team would not be out of the question. However, if he performs at or near the level of his current career averages (.325 batting average, 39.6 home runs and 119.5 RBI), the AL West could be won by the summer.

 

Josh Hamilton

2012 Stats:

G      AB     R     H     2B     3B     HR     RBI     BB     SO     SB     AVG                

148   562    103   160   31     2      43      127     60       162     7       .285

 

 

2013 Projected Stats:

G      AB     R     H     2B     3B     HR     RBI     BB     SO     SB     AVG                

136   522    91   145   26       0      31       98      53     133      7       .277

 

Analysis: Josh Hamilton’s debut season with the Angels will be rockier than most expect. According to ESPN’s split stats, Hamilton ended last year’s campaign in a major slump. In September, he batted .259 and drove in only 15 runs. His numbers slipped even further in October, posting a measly .154 batting average.

In his six-year career, Hamilton has never played more than 156 games. Injuries and off-the-field incidents have minimized his playing time. From 2007-2012, Hamilton has averaged only 122 games played per season. It is not likely that he will exceed that number by much in 2013. 

It would not be surprising for the left-hander to take a month or two to get acclimated to a new ballpark and new teammates. 

Last year, Hamilton had the luxury of playing in the fourth-most hitter-friendly stadium in the majors, according to MLB Park Factors. The Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has a reputation as a launching pad for home runs, especially in the warm summer air.

On the other side of the coin, Angel Stadium was ranked as the 27th worst hitter’s park out of 30 in 2012. Home runs and extra base hits come at a premium in this ballpark. Therefore, with reduced games played and a pitcher-friendly ballpark to get used to, it seems rather logical to believe that Hamilton’s numbers will come down across the board in 2013.       

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Ranking the 5 Most Underrated Prospects in the Seattle Mariners’ System

The Seattle Marinersfarm system is one of the best in the game, with a majority of their top prospects stashed at Double-A or above. Although the on-field product at the major league level has been generally uninspiring, the organization has done an admirable job drafting both high-ceiling and high-floor talent over the last three years.

Headed into the 2013 season, the Mariners have an impressive collection of top 100 prospects in RHP Taijuan Walker, C Mike Zunino, LHP Danny Hultzen, SS-2B Nick Franklin and LHP James Paxton. Beyond those players, their system is exceptionally deep and loaded with potential impact talent—including several under-the-radar prospects.

In selecting players for this article, I targeted prospects who are behind the developmental curve relative to their age, have a concerning medical history, lack significant professional experience or are simply underappreciated

Here’s a look at the most underrated prospects in the Seattle Mariners’ farm system.

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MLB Preseason Evaluation Series: 2013 Seattle Mariners

 

This series will evaluate one team per day, starting on Jan. 23 and ending on Feb. 22 (the first game of spring training). It is based on last season’s performance, the offseason changes since then and the author’s outlook for the team in 2013. Please keep in mind that rosters can, and will, change before Opening Day. We started in the American League East, worked across to the National League, tackled the Central divisions, and now jump to the AL West, going in alphabetical order. Next up, the Seattle Mariners.

 

2012 finish: 75-87 (4th place, AL West)

 

Notable additions

LHP Joe Saunders, RHP Jeremy Bonderman, RHP Kameron Loe, RHP Jon Garland, OF Raul Ibanez, OF Michael Morse, OF Jason Bay, 1B Kendrys Morales, 1B Mike Jacobs, 2B Robert Andino, C Kelly Shoppach, C Ronny Paulino.

 

Notable losses

LHP Jason Vargas, LHP George Sherrill, RHP Kevin Millwood, RHP Shawn Kelley, OF Scott Cousins, INF/OF Chone Figgins, OF Trayvon Robinson, C John Jaso, C Miguel Olivo.

 

Why they will improve this year

I’m in love with this team. I’ll just put that out there. The young talent is amazing and you’d have to be crazy to dislike Felix Hernandez. But in order to improve, the M’s need big progressions from guys like Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager and Jesus Montero.

One of the things holding Seattle back in recent years has been their lack of pop in the lineup. Safeco Field was where home runs went to die (Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre can confirm), but they have moved the fences in for 2013.

Even if they hadn’t, the additions of sluggers Morse and Morales might still have added 25 homers each. The lineup is instantly upgraded with those two, as well as Ibanez off the bench as a designated hitter. I really like Vargas, but it was necessary to unload him for a big bat, and they may have found a better replacement with Saunders anyway.

The pitching staff should be strong again this season, but it’s the strides they made on offense that intrigue me the most. Adding Morse, Morales and Ibanez are huge moves that will definitely improve a team that finished dead last in the American League in both runs scored and batting average a season ago. With the new bats, plus growth from the young guns, they could climb those ranks rapidly.

 

Why they will regress this year

One thing Mariners fans never wanted to hear, even if just a whisper, was that there could be something wrong with Hernandez’s throwing arm. In a worst-case scenario, there actually is something wrong with that golden arm and the Mariners are absolutely sunk for 2013.

Without Hernandez, the team is significantly worse. But another big worry in Seattle is if Ackley continues to struggle with the bat (he definitely did not meet expectations in 2012), and Seager regresses from his powerful rookie season.

Both are very real possibilities. However, assuming the best for those two, what if Morse and Morales’ power don’t translate to Seattle? They can both hit the ball a mile, but as previously mentioned, that didn’t help former big bats that came to Seattle. Even if they all have great years, will the offense be good enough? It will be tough to measure up to the Angels and Rangers in their own division.

Behind Hernandez, the Mariners figure to line up Saunders, Hisashi Iwakuma, Blake Beaven and Erasmo Ramirez. Really? That’s it? That’s even more evidence that losing Hernandez would ruin this team’s season. There’s potential in that rotation, but it could be shockingly mediocre this year.

 

The outlook for 2013

Like I wrote, I do really like this team. The lineup excites me and I really do expect Seager to continue growing and Ackley to turn it around after last year. Morse and Morales are two of my favorite “under-the-radar” players and I think they were exactly the right moves for Seattle.

If Hernandez is healthy, he will be one of the best pitchers in baseball again, but the biggest question marks for me come after that. Saunders has been pretty solid over the last few years, but can he be consistent? Even less of a sure thing is the rest of the rotation who is either inexperienced, young or both.

One thing I’m really looking forward to is seeing the impending call-ups of Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. All three have been studs in the minor leagues and could make immediate impacts in the rotation down the stretch. And don’t forget about top catching prospect Mike Zunino and top infield prospect Nick Franklin, who should get a shot at some point this year.

For me, watching the development of all the young talent will be the most exciting aspect of this Mariners season. I don’t think 2013 is their year, but they are very close. In 2014, they could legitimately contend for the division title, as long as health and regression don’t become huge issues.

It’s the opinion of this writer that the Mariners stay stuck in fourth place, but finish at .500 and start opening some eyes around baseball. Once the aforementioned minor league pitchers, as well as Ackley, Montero and Seager really get comfortable, this team is a force to be reckoned with.

 

Potential changes before Opening Day

According to Pete Abraham on Twitter, the Red Sox have “internally discussed” acquiring Mike Carp, who was recently designated for assignment by Seattle. The Mariners have nothing to lose with him, and might as well try to pick up a prospect or two from Boston there.

I doubt that general manager Jack Zduriencik will make a run at Kyle Lohse, but it wouldn’t hurt if they can afford to give up that draft pick. If anything, I could see the M’s making a run at another bullpen arm or two and a veteran bat like Casey Kotchman would have been nice if he didn’t just sign with Tampa Bay.

 

Biggest surprise: Joe Saunders

Biggest disappointment: Jesus Montero

Bold prediction: Mike Morse hits 35 home runs, drives in 125 runs

 

Projected lineup

1. Dustin Ackley, 2B

2. Franklin Gutierrez, CF

3. Kyle Seager, 3B

4. Michael Morse, LF

5. Kendrys Morales, DH

6. Jesus Montero, C

7. Justin Smoak, 1B

8. Michael Saunders, RF

9. Brendan Ryan, SS

 

Projected rotation

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP

2. Joe Saunders, LHP

3. Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP

4. Blake Beaven, RHP

5. Erasmo Ramirez, RHP

 

Projected finish: 81-81, 4th place


For more preseason evaluations:

 

AL East AL Central AL West
Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox Cleveland Indians Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees Detroit Tigers Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays Minnesota Twins [Texas Rangers]
NL East NL Central NL West
Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs [Arizona Diamondbacks]
Miami Marlins Cincinnati Reds [Colorado Rockies]
New York Mets Milwaukee Brewers [Los Angeles Dodgers]
Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates [San Diego Padres]
Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals [San Francisco Giants]

*Teams [in brackets] have not yet been evaluated.


You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @Jamblinman. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Nelson Cruz: Will He Still Have a Banner Year Despite PED Allegations?

Nelson Cruz has a lot to play for in 2013, especially now that his name was included in the MLB’s latest round of PED allegations.

The league hasn’t reprimanded any of the players named in the report yet, and Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he expects Nellie in right field to begin the season.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that even if the 32-year-old does clear his name, it’s a safe bet this dark cloud will follow him most of the season. Baseball’s shameful past with steroids makes these allegations difficult to shake, even for the innocent.

How Cruz will respond is a valid question. Will he still have a stellar season despite the uncomfortable spotlight? There are a few reasons to believe he will.

First of all, Nellie is a free agent at the end of this season. The lure of a big payday is almost always motivation for a professional athlete to step things up. We see it every year.

New hitting coach Dave Magadan’s arrival is also a possible sign of good things to come. Perhaps Cruz will benefit more than anyone from the former Red Sox coach’s hitting expertise.

Additionally, Nelson wouldn’t be the first player to post a solid season on the heels of an alleged steroid scandal. Ryan Braun faced immense scrutiny when he tested positive for PEDs in late 2011, but the former NL MVP managed to overturn the ruling and finished the following season second in MVP voting. 

Cruz will get his first bit of action since the allegations when he suits up for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. It’s not spring training, but it’s still an early chance for fans to watch him play.

Texas needs Nellie right now—badly. They’ve already lost a great deal of punch in their lineup and cannot afford another casualty.

By his own standards, last season was a down year, but he still hit 24 homers and drove in 90 runs. Imagine if he bounces back and plays like the guy who helped carry the team to the World Series in 2011.   

It’s a big season for the Rangers, and for Cruz as well. There are a lot of questions at the moment and few answers. The season starting will help, and it can’t get here soon enough.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Preseason Evaluation Series: 2013 Houston Astros

 

This series will evaluate one team per day, starting on Jan. 23, and ending on Feb. 22 (the first game of spring training). It is based on last season’s performance, the offseason changes since then and the author’s outlook for the team in 2013. Please keep in mind that rosters can, and will, change before Opening Day. We started in the American League East, worked across to the National League, tackled the Central divisions, and now jump to the AL West, going in alphabetical order. Next up, the St. Louis Cardinals.


2012 finish: 55-107 (6th place, NL Central)

 

Notable additions

Left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard, right-handed pitcher Jose Veras, RHP Phil Humber, RHP Alex White, RHP John Ely, RHP Brad Peacock, outfielder Rick Ankiel, designated hitter Carlos Pena, firstbaseman Chris Carter and catcher Max Stassi

 

Notable losses

LHP Rob Rasmussen, LHP Fernando Abad, RHP Wilton Lopez, RHP Fernando Rodriguez, OF Jordan Schaefer, shortstop Jed Lowrie and C Chris Snyder

 

Why they will improve this year

Because they could play with blindfolds on and win 56 games. In all seriousness, the Astros have decimated their roster and have an overall payroll equal to some individual player salaries. There is a method to the madness, and I think we’ll start seeing glimpses of the process working in 2013.

The infield is loaded with former top prospects like Matt Dominguez at third base, Brett Wallace at first base and Tyler Greene at shortstop. A young rotation has some surprising pieces with very high potential. And Justin Maxwell in center field could do some damage if he cuts down on strikeouts.

Astros fans can presume that they’ll get a good effort from Jose Altuve, but some help from the corner outfielders would go a long way in 2013. And while the bullpen struggled last year, they’ve added Veras to the closer’s role in order to attempt stabilizing the later innings.

Even with the likelihood of a last-place finish in their first season in the American League, the Astros are on the right track. I think they will improve from being the worst-hitting team in baseball a year ago and at least give fans a few reasons to show up to the ball park. When their large crop of top-flight Triple-A talent gets the call, that reason to show will be multiplied.

 

Why they will regress this year

Besides Altuve, the Astros have zero star power. Their most famous (and highest-paid) player on the payroll is Wandy Rodriguez, who’s now in Pittsburgh! And though “star power,” whatever that means, doesn’t equal wins, it does mean that the roster is young, anonymous, and inexperienced. Unless guys like Dominguez, Wallace and Jason Castro break out, south of 60 wins is very possible again.

The offense should improve a little bit, especially after recently adding Carter, but how is a middle of the order with two legitimate power threats going to intimidate anyone? Especially when Pena also hits around .200 every year with a million strikeouts, making the power almost worthless?

I like the starting rotation, but it’s still not nearly ready. Bud Norris may be traded before the season starts, which would slide Humber to the number three spot. Any team with him in the top three of their rotation is asking for a long, long season.

Even if Lucas Harrell and Jordan Lyles build off their 2012 seasons, you’re talking about two No. 4 starters right now, at best. What I’m most worried about it the Astros’ bullpen, which seems to be in shambles. After posting a cumulative 4.46 ERA and league-leading .274 batting average against in 2012, will the addition of Veras be enough to help stabilize the ‘pen? I don’t think so.


The outlook for 2013

It’s not saying much, but I do expect the Astros to improve slightly. Given that they went on a Wal-Mart shopping spree this winter to bring in cheap prospects and dump anyone who was making seven figures, that’s not really a negative assessment. Every player in that clubhouse needs to recognize that 2013 is a rebuilding year, and that their goal should be to improve their individual all-around games.

Unfortunately, it means that 2013 will be another very frustrating season for the Astros faithful. On the bright side, diehard fans have a couple guys to really look forward to. If Greene hadn’t fumbled away a spot in St. Louis, he might be on the path to stardom right now, and Maxwell has as much athleticism as anyone in the outfield.

Lyles, Jarred Cosart and Dallas Keuchel all should have a spot in the rotation, if only to keep fans ecstatic about the rotation’s future. Cosart and Lyles, could especially have surprisingly productive years for a pair of 23-year-olds. The revolving door of exciting young starters (don’t forget about Ely, White and Peacock in Triple-A) will be extremely fun to track.

So, will it be painful to watch? Yes. Will the ‘Stros end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard more often than not? Yes. Will it be like watching a Triple-A team play most of the time? Yes. Will it be boring, then? Absolutely not. Keep an eye on some of the young talents in Houston, because that alone is worth the ride. 

It’s the opinion of this writer that the Astros do not lose 100 games again, finishing with an eight-game improvement over 2012 and starting the very slow climb from the cellar back to contention. It’s a last-place finish in 2013, but it could be paving the way to contention in a few short years when top prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Carlos Correa and George Springer join the club.

 

Potential changes before Opening Day

As previously mentioned, the Astros might look into trading Norris for prospects. And with the recent announcement of Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter missing the 2013 season, St. Louis would be a great trading partner. Even getting one high-potential hitter who has been struggling in Double-A would be worth it for the Astros.

Ken Rosenthal reported on FOXSports.com (h/t MLBTradeRumors.com) that, because of Norris’ low ($3 million in 2013, highest-paid member of the 40-man roster) salary and contact status (under team control until 2015) he is an attractive option on the last-second pitching market for the Cardinals, as well as San Diego and Baltimore.

 

Biggest surprise: Cosart.

Biggest disappointment: Pena.

Bold prediction: Altuve hits .315, steals 40 bags.

 

Projected lineup

1. Altuve, 2B

2. Fernando Martinez, RF

3. Carter, LF

4. Pena, DH

5. Wallace, 1B

6. Maxwell, CF

7. Castro, C

8. Greene, SS

9. Dominguez, 3B

 

Projected rotation

1. Harrell, RHP

2. Norris, RHP

3. Lyles, RHP

4. Bedard, LHP

5. Humber, RHP

 

Projected finish: 63-99, 5th place

 

AL East AL Central AL West
Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox Cleveland Indians [Los Angeles Angels]
New York Yankees Detroit Tigers [Oakland Athletics]
Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals [Seattle Mariners]
Toronto Blue Jays Minnesota Twins [Texas Rangers]
NL East NL Central NL West
Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs [Arizona Diamondbacks]
Miami Marlins Cincinnati Reds [Colorado Rockies]
New York Mets Milwaukee Brewers [Los Angeles Dodgers]
Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates [San Diego Padres]
Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals [San Francisco Giants]

*Teams [in brackets] have not yet been evaluated.


You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @Jamblinman.

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Yoenis Cespedes: Why the Slugger Will Be an MVP Candidate for the A’s in 2013

The Oakland A’s had a busy winter stocking up on talent in order to defend their AL West title. They acquired outfielder Chris Young, shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, catcher John Jaso and infielder Jed Lowrie to bolster the squad.

The A’s did lose shortstops Stephen Drew and Cliff Pennington, outfielder/desginated hitter Jonny Gomes, first baseman Chris Carter, starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy and catcher George Kottaras. Time will tell if the new additions can provide more value this year than the departures did last season.

Regardless of how well Young, Nakajima, Jaso and Lowrie perform, the biggest source of improvement from last season is likely to come from within.

Brett Anderson should more than make up for the loss of McCarthy in the rotation this year after making six impressive starts down the stretch last season to complete his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Anderson’s rotation mates Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone should continue to improve upon their stellar rookie seasons from last year as well.

Offensively, Josh Reddick showed what he was capable of in the first half when he hit .268/.348/.532—which should have earned him All-Star honors—before slumping to .215/.256/.391 in the second half. A full season at his first-half pace would go a long way to helping the A’s defend their crown this season.

Yet no Oakland player—and very few players in all of baseball—have the tools that Yoenis Cespedes possesses. Cespedes has the natural talent to take a giant leap forward in 2013 and contend for the AL MVP award.

He can hit for average, hit for power, run and throw—giving him four of the five tools scouts look for. The fifth tool, his defense, improved after he moved from center field over to left.

Cespedes improved drastically as the season wore on.

When I saw him in spring training, he was hacking at every breaking ball in sight. Then, he got off to a slow start in April—hitting only .244. He continued to struggle in May—hitting only .227 with a .534 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS).

He took off from there. His OPS improved to 1.016 in June, .961 in July, .788 in August and .874 in September. In the postseason, he hit .316 with a .381 on-base percentage.

The adjustments that he made throughout the season at the plate were impressive.

He became a more patient hitter as the season went along, which allowed him to get better pitches to hit and unleash his impressive power. He improved from a .465 slugging percentage with nine home runs in the first half to a .533 slugging percentage and 14 home runs in the second half.

All the more impressive is that he did this while transitioning to the United States from Cuba, learning a new position and battling through injuries. He missed 31 games with hand and hamstring injuries.

His at-bats became must-see events last year.

At 5’10”, 210 pounds, he’s built more like an NFL running back than a baseball player. He has tremendous bat speed, and he doesn’t get cheated at the plate—taking controlled but vicious hacks. He does an outstanding job of getting his stout lower half into his swing via his quick-twitch weight transfer and hip rotation. 

He’s a physical specimen with four plus tools. His natural power is right up their with the best sluggers in the game. 

He finished his rookie year with 23 home runs, 25 doubles, five triples, 16 steals and an .861 OPS despite playing in a pitcher’s park and skipping the minor leagues entirely. His tools and physique, combined with his ability to adjust to major league pitching, are going to lead to an even bigger breakout this year.

With a year to adjust to a new culture and a new position under his belt, Cespedes is ready to become an MVP candidate in 2013.

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Oakland Athletics Starting Infield Predictions for 2013

After a busy offseason for the Oakland A’s, they will fight to retain their standing on top of the American League West.

During said offseason, the A’s have moved around a lot of infielders through addition and subtraction.

Gone are the days of Cliff Pennington at shortstop or second base, after he was traded to Arizona. Stephen Drew is gone as well after being the A’s shortstop down the stretch.  

Another trade split apart the solid first base platoon of Brandon Moss and Chris Carter with Carter being sent to Houston.

Brandon Inge also will not be back in Oakland this year.

With all the departing infielders, who will take their spots rather that be an everyday job or part-time platoon job?

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Seattle Mariners: Projecting the Starting Rotation for 2013

The starting rotation for the Seattle Mariners is far from set as the team gets ready to start spring training for the 2013 season.

Would it be a stretch to suggest that only two spots are assured at this point?

Felix Hernandez. Ace. Top of the rotation. In process of signing huge long-term deal. Check.

Hisashi Iwakuma. Signed two-year deal. Probable second or third, depending on other performances. Check.

Joe Saunders. One year-deal. Represents veteran experience, though there are no guarantees. Check?

Beyond that? Take your pick. Blake Beavan. Erasmo Ramirez. Hector Noesi. Jeremy Bonderman. Taijuan Walker. James Paxton. Danny Hultzen. Brandon Maurer.

Now you can add Jon Garland to the mix, as tweeted by Geoff Baker.

For those of you scoring at home, that is nine pitchers for two spots, and there could theoretically be more. Who will be the odd men out?

This really could be a sort of open tryout for those spots. Seattle currently has a penciled-in depth chart, but that could be completely negotiable.

There are positives and negatives to every one of these pitchers.

Blake Beavan is currently listed in the rotation, but he will arguably need to pitch well in order to keep that spot. His consistently high ERA and his propensity to give up the long ball have some wondering if he has reached his ceiling or if he is poised for a breakout year.

Erasmo Ramirez looked good in September, but he will also be auditioning for his spot in the rotation. Obviously the Mariners like what they see in Ramirez, but the youngster has a very limited body of work. He could theoretically lose his job in Arizona.

Hector Noesi seems destined for the minors unless he puts together an impressive spring. The add-on to the Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda trade was dreadful in 2012, which means that he will need a rebound performance in order to stay on the roster.

Jeremy Bonderman and Jon Garland bring veteran savvy to a staff that could probably use some experience. Unfortunately, Garland has not pitched since 2011 and Bonderman has not thrown since 2010. Therefore, “veteran savvy” might be a nice way of suggesting that both are barely hanging on. Both will either have to pitch very well in Arizona or win jobs by default if no one else steps up.

At the risk of lumping the rest into one group, there is a common theme with the highly-touted youngsters. Now is the time where we see which players are ready, close to ready or need another year or two of seasoning. Will there be a breakout performance? You have to suspect that Seattle would love to see a Taijuan Walker step up, dazzle and win a spot in the rotation.

Still, there will be caution about rushing the young arms. This is why guys like Bonderman and Garland are in camp. The veterans may represent the future for this team, but they might serve as placeholders until the young arms are ready. At the risk of being insensitive, the veterans are a bit more expendable at this point.

A more conservative rotation probably looks like this:

Hernandez, Iwakuma, Saunders, Beavan/Ramirez, Garland

However, what happens if the young pitchers look really good? The rotation might then look like this:

Hernandez, Iwakuma, Saunders, Walker, Hultzen

Is the future upon us? Or will this be a conservative rotation that is filled in with uninspiring but semi-reliable experience?

Let the tryouts begin.

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MLB Spring Training: Will Jeremy Bonderman or Jon Garland Make the Roster?

For a team that was struggling for pitching depth about a week ago, the Seattle Mariners seem to be intent on having as many options as possible heading into the 2013 season.

Geoff Baker has reported that the Mariners have come to a minor league agreement with 33-year old pitcher Jon Garland. This report was broken by Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider as well.

Garland has not pitched since 2011, when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that season, Garland finished 1-5 with a 4.33 ERA in 54.0 IP before being shut down with shoulder surgery. Garland is better known for his eight-year stretch with the Chicago White Sox, with his best season coming in 2005 when he finished 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.

Garland isn’t the only project the Mariners have picked up this offseason, as they signed former Detroit Tiger Jeremy Bonderman to a minor league deal back in December. Much like Garland, Bonderman did not pitch in the majors last season and hasn’t since 2010, when he finished the season 8-10 with a 5.53 ERA.

The question at this point for the Mariners is whether or not either pitcher has enough left in the tank to earn a spot in the rotation in 2013 if the young talent isn’t ready. Many fans will remember that the Mariners made a similar signing last season when they signed Kevin Millwood, who proceeded to throw 161.0 innings for the Mariners with a respectable 4.25 ERA. In fact, Millwood was the starting pitcher when the Mariners used six pitchers to no-hit the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 8 of last season.

When comparing the track records of Jeremy Bonderman and Jon Garland, one has to think that Garland has the upper hand when it comes to potentially earning a spot in the rotation. Over his career, Garland only posted one season with a negative WAR, and that was his rookie season in 2000 when he only started 13 games.

In fact, in 2010 Garland posted a 1.1 WAR and threw 200.0 innings for the San Diego Padres while posting a 3.47 ERA, the third lowest ERA of his career. On the other hand, Bonderman hasn’t posted a positive WAR since 2008 and has never had a season in which his ERA was below 4.00.

At this point, it may not be positive for the Mariners start the 2013 season with either Garland or Bonderman in the rotation. In order for that to happen, either Blake Beavan or Erasmo Ramirez would have to have had an extraordinarily poor spring training AND none of the young talent in the Mariners system would have impressed enough to warrant a spot in the rotation as well. However, nobody expected Kevin Millwood to start the 2012 season in the rotation, either.

When it comes down to it, the signings of Jon Garland and Jeremy Bonderman are truly low risk as both of them are signed to minor league deals, and it is entirely possible that one of them could show enough in spring training to keep on the 25-man roster. But needless to say, there are not many Mariners fans who would be thrilled if they did.

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