Tag: Alfonso Soriano

Breaking Down Alfonso Soriano’s 300 Home Runs

Lost in translation of the Cubs’ 10-5 loss to the White Sox was that Alfonso Soriano slugged his 300th home run in the second inning to tie the game, shooting the Cubs’ win probability up from 38.2 percent to 55.2 percent.

Randy Wells proceeded to give the game away in the fifth inning, leaving the Cubs’ win probability at 19.2% when he left the game, and soon after a parade of average to below average relief pitchers (with the exception of Tom Gorzelanny) followed to make matters worse. Before the Cubs recorded an out in the eighth, their win probability was a hopeless 0.2 percent.

While the Cubs’ loss reflects their recent bullpen problems, Soriano’s career home run achievement should not be forfeited to the liner notes.

In his 12 year career, Alfonso Soriano has managed five 4.0+ WAR seasons (including a 6.9 WAR season with Washington), and has been rightly considered a superstar due to his considerable talents as a power/speed threat. He posted four 30/30 seasons, and one 40/40 season. His power/speed score, according to Baseball Reference, stands as the fifth best of active players, and 32nd best all-time.

Since starring for the Yankees in 2001, Soriano has posted above average home run marks, especially during his time as a second baseman. He hit a homer every 20 at bats during this time, besting Ryne Sandberg (28) and Jeff Kent at the position.

Over the course of his career, Soriano has hit 107 home runs in the first inning, including 54 lead-off homers. He prefers the first two pitches of the at-bat, accumulating 144 homers before strike two or ball two is called.

Of all the pitchers Soriano has hit a home run off, CC Sabathia stands alone as his most susceptible home run victim, with the Baltimore Orioles being the team he most prefers to hit long balls against.

Although his bat appears to be on the decline, Soriano has established himself as an above-average major leaguer over the course of his career, and should continue to contribute at least a couple more seasons of  a 2+ WAR.

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Alfonso Soriano: Chicago Cubs Outfielder Stock Is Rising, Best To Sell Now

Alfonso Soriano hit his seventh home run of the season last night.

 

It is somewhat surprising to see Soriano do so well out of the gates considering that very few people expected much from him this season.

 

We’re we completely wrong on Soriano?

 

Maybe, but such a hot start really isn’t that surprising. It is, however, unsustainable.

 

Through 82 at-bats this season: .338 AVG, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB
Through 82 at-bats last season: .305 AVG, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 3 SB
The rest of the 2009 season: .234 AVG, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB (393 AB)
 
Soriano fell victim to injuries as well as some big-time slumps. His season ended only three days into September. Will things be different this season?
I wrote this about Soriano this preseason:
The Cub I don’t want is Alfono Soriano and I have stayed well clear in mock drafts. For two straight seasons, Soriano has yet to top 500 at-bats.

 

In every season he has been with the Cubs, he has missed time due to a leg injury. He ended 2009 needing knee surgery.

 

Say goodbye to those nice stolen base totals.

 

Soriano is also 34-years-old, which in non-steroid terms means a decline is coming or already here. For Soriano it may be a combination of both.

 

Always a free swinging/low contact hitter, there were visible signs of his slowing bat speed last season as he was consistently beat inside by fastballs.
 

 

Well, at least part of this statement is current so far. Soriano has only one stolen base on one attempt this season. His days of being a contributor in that category are over.
The other aspects of what I wrote still have to play out. It is, after all, only 82 at-bats.

 
Soriano’s current AVG is almost assured to drop. His BABIP is at .333 despite over 50 percent of his balls in play being classified as fly balls. His career BABIP is .307 and he only held a BABIP over .330 twice in his career (2002 and 2007). 

 

Soriano is also swinging at pitches outside the strike zone over 37 percent of the time and making below league average contact on his swings overall.

 

 
According to CBSSports.com, Soriano has recently been traded for Heath Bell, Ricky Weeks, Stephen Strasburg, Aramis Ramirez, Matt Cain and Grady Sizemore in one for one trades. 

 

 
Clearly, some owners are viewing him as a valuable commodity.
 

 

Based on his recent injury history and age, it might be a good idea to sell high on Soriano. His current AB/HR rate of about 11 is unsustainable. Not a single player last season held such a rate over the full season. If you own Soriano you’ve got what is very likely the best production of his season. Be happy with that and send him packing with a smile on your face

 

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  Follow FB365 on Twitter

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Alfonso Soriano Should Be Traded by the Chicago Cubs Right Now

There’s a saying that goes you should “strike while the iron is hot.” Well right now, Alfonso Soriano is incendiary, and I say this is the best time to explore trade options for the Cubs mercurial left fielder.

In his last three games, Soriano has slammed four homers and driven in 10 runs.

On the season, he’s batting .325 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, and (for you stats geeks out there) an incredible .1057 OPS.

Both the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves are struggling right now and could use a big bat in the lineup. Both teams also have money to spend, especially the deep-pocketed Red Sox.

The Red Sox are in fourth place in the AL East, ahead of only the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Even this early, fourth place is not acceptable for the Red Sox, especially when they have the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays in their division.

If they fall too far behind, they may never recover.

With David Ortiz failing miserably in the DH spot, there is talk that they might just release him.

What better option would there be for them than to trade for a player who could make the “Green Monster” his own personal batting target, knocking balls off and over the wall like they’re ping pong balls?

Both Ortiz and Mike Lowell are currently sharing the DH spot in the lineup. Perhaps the Cubs could take Lowell off their hands and save them the $12.5 million they owe him this year.

Boston is a team that could pick up Soriano’s salary, which is not the most attractive contract in baseball. Perhaps the Cubs could even pick up some of it if necessary to smooth things along.

If I were Cubs GM Jim Hendry, I would ask for some prospects, but the goal here is to get rid of Soriano while the getting is good. Anything you get back in return is gravy.

And there is no better position on the field for Soriano to play than the DH, a position he was born for.

You could also look at the Braves who have a combined 13 RBI’s from Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz, and Nate McLouth in the outfield. They would be starving for runs if not for rookie sensation Jason Hayward and his 23 ribbies, but wouldn’t Soriano’s bat look great added to that lineup?

Again, ask for prospects and take whatever they give you, along with throwing in a couple of bags of money to cover some of the tariff he’s still owed for the next four years after this one.

The Cubs aren’t going anywhere this year anyway, even with Soriano.

He’s looking like a different hitter so far this year, more patient and selective at the plate, perhaps thanks to new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.

Whether that will last nobody knows, but he’s always been a streak hitter throughout his career. Why not take advantage of his latest hot streak and find a sucker to take him off your hands before he goes back into a hitting funk, and the only highlights you see are of him on SportsCenter botching another fly ball?

This is addition by subtraction and makes the Cubs a stronger team in the coming years with more payroll flexibility.

Of course, like every Cub player, he has a no trade contract, so some sweetener will have to be added to the sweetest contract in baseball for a player of his limited abilities.

There also could be a few other teams out there that might bite, like the LA teams in the AL and NL, neither of whom has gotten off to a very good start.

All I’m saying is put his name out there and see if you get a taker. Toronto did that last year when they put Alex Rios on waivers. The White Sox claimed him and Toronto said, “He’s yours, we don’t need anything back.”

The Sox were stuck with him and his bloated deal.

Of course Soriano’s deal dwarfs his, but as P.T. Barnum once allegedly said, “There’s a sucker born every minute.”

Do you think the Cubs can be lucky enough to find that sucker?

 

 

 

 

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2010 Fantasy Baseball: Week Four Hot Streak Report

I can’t believe it has already been a full month of baseball. Here are the guys who knocked the cover off the baseball this past week.

 

 

1)      3B David Freese, STL

 

St. Louis third baseman had a solid week. He had twelve hits, 11 RBI, three home runs and had a .462 AVG.

 

2)      2B Robinson Cano, NYY

 

New York couldn’t ask for more from the young second baseman. Cano had eleven hits, seven RBI, rocked four into the stands, and finished the week with a .440 AVG.

 

Cano’s RBI rate would be even higher if Teixeira made it on the bag once in a while. Cano’s last two homers have been solo shots.

 

3)      OF Andre Ethier LAD

 

Hollywood has a new producer and his name is Andre Ethier. The Dodgers outfielder blasted four home runs this week. He had 10 hits, 10 RBI, and a .385 AVG after a week of nice production.

 

4)      SS Hanley Ramirez FLA

 

Fantasy baseball’s number two overall draft pick paid off this week. Ramirez hit four homeruns, had nine hits, eight RBI, and ended the week with a .409 AVG.

 

5)      OF Austin Jackson DET

 

The Detroit outfielder had a perfectly average week, but in baseball, that means greatness. Jackson ended the week with a .500 AVG while crossing the dish eight times, himself.

 

6)      3B Evan Longoria TB

 

Longoria had a nice week after hitting three homeruns, five RBI, stealing two bases, posting a .417 AVG, and touching home plate seven times.

 

7)      OF Tori Hunter LAA

 

The Angels outfielder had nine hits, six RBI, two home runs, and topped off the week with a .450 AVG.

 

8)      OF Alfonso Soriano ChC

 

Soriano had a stellar week of baseball. He sent four over the outfield wall, posted ten RBI, seven runs, and a .400 AVG was simply the cherry on top.

 

Soriano’s bat is burning, so he will likely see more time on the field despite his less than spectacular defense. Tyler Colvin will be riding the pine until Soriano’s broomstick cools off.

 

9)      1B Paul Konerko CWS

 

The Chicago White Sox first baseman hit home runs like first basemen are supposed to. Konerko hit four dingers and knocked in 10 teammates across the plate. He finished the week with a .316 AVG.

 

10)   OF Austin Kearns CLE

 

Kearns had eleven hits, two home runs, eight RBI, one stolen base, and a .393 AVG for the week.

 

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