Kuzul

Whereas the 2014 American League MVP race will likely be between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera again, the NL MVP race should be more wide open again. Andrew McCutchen will be in it, as will Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Joey Votto and Bryce Harper. Just to name a few.

But here’s where I endear myself to Arizona Diamondbacks fans. I and the other B/R MLB guys made early awards picks in February, and only I picked Paul Goldschmidt for the NL MVP.

The main reason I picked him doesn’t require much elaboration. After hitting .302 with a .401 OBP and leading the NL in RBI, slugging, OPS and OPS+ and co-leading in homers, it’s obvious Goldy’s a stud.

But somewhere in the back of my mind was Mark Trumbo. The D-Backs got him from the Los Angeles Angels in a winter blockbuster, and he could have a hand in helping Goldschmidt win the MVP in 2014.

This, however, does require some elaboration. Because while I think Trumbo does have a role to play in Goldy’s MVP chase, my expectations for him are more simple than other expectations out there.

From the moment Trumbo was acquired, there’s been chatter here and there about him protecting Goldschmidt in Arizona’s lineup. Even Trumbo is on board with the idea.

“Without a doubt,” he answered when asked in February if he believes he can provide protection for Goldschmidt in the lineup, via ArizonaSports.com.

Trumbo went on to note that he has a good idea of the value of lineup protection after watching what Mike Trout went through last year:

He got quite a few pitches to hit, then Albert went down, and the next thing you know the guy’s got over 100 walks, and I think Goldy experienced that last year, too. If you really don’t have a threat or a guy…if you’ve got that combo, they’re going to take their chances probably on both guys as opposed to just a free pass and then go after the next guy.

Trumbo has some keen powers of observation. Before Pujols’ last game on July 26, Trout had a 10.6 walk percentage. The rest of the season, he had a 24.0 walk percentage. 

Trumbo‘s also right about Goldschmidt. After walking in 10.2 percent of his plate appearances in 2012, he walked in 13.9 percent of his plate appearances in 2013. When you look at what was going on in the No. 4 spot behind him in Arizona’s lineup, that does look like a lack of protection at work:

Pujols goes away and Trout starts drawing a ton of walks. D-Backs cleanup hitters go “pluh” and Goldschmidt draws more walks than the year before. Thus, support for the notion that lineup protection is a thing.

Which, as some of you may know, actually goes against the conventional wisdom in the sabermetric community.

For sabermetricians, “lineup protection” is sort of like “clutch” in that there’s more anecdotal evidence in favor of the idea than there is, you know, actual evidence. What the various takes essentially say is that you have to look at more than just walks.

FanGraphs‘ Dave Cameron, for example, penned an ESPN Insider piece (subscription required) that noted how many pitches McCutchen was seeing in the strike zone in 2012 despite the fact he was the only good hitter the Pirates had. In a piece that pondered what lineup protection would look like, FanGraphs‘ Jeff Sullivan partially focused on whether Prince Fielder’s presence resulted in more fastballs for Miguel Cabrera to hit in 2012.

If we use Brooks Baseball and FanGraphs to conduct a similar experiment with Goldschmidt‘s 2013 season, we see this:

From 2012 to 2013, Goldschmidt did see fewer first-pitch heaters and fewer fastballs overall. But the drops were very slight, and the modest increase in pitches in the strike zone was a solid trade-off.

This puts the idea that Goldschmidt walked a lot last year because pitchers weren’t giving him anything to hit on shaky ground. Rather than lineup protection, perhaps we’re better off chalking that improved walk rate up to Goldy simply becoming more disciplined.

Which he did, by the way, as he swung at fewer pitches outside the zone, fewer pitches inside the zone and fewer pitches overall:

Now, I didn’t watch every game that the D-Backs played last year. I have no doubt that any who did could think of plenty of times when teams were clearly pitching around Goldschmidt. 

What I’m not sold on is whether pitching around Goldschmidt was any sort of general protocol. He walked a lot, sure, but aside from that the evidence of pitchers avoiding him is iffy. Chalking his improved walk rate in 2013 up to a lack of lineup protection is an oversimplification.

But then, maybe this is all academic anyway.

Even if we could prove that lineup protection is a thing and that Goldschmidt clearly didn’t have it last year, it wouldn’t matter as far as Trumbo is concerned. As much as he thinks he can provide it, he’s not the kind of guy who would.

Trumbo was, after all, an easier out in 2013 than the guys who batted behind Goldschmidt. The .331 OBP they compiled isn’t much to speak of, but it certainly looks good next to Trumbo‘s .294 OBP. D-Backs cleanup hitters also had a decent 16.0 strikeout rate, compared to 27.1 for Trumbo.

The point, in a nutshell, is this: Don’t expect Trumbo‘s presence to make Goldschmidt a better hitter in 2014. It’s likely not going to make any difference whatsoever.

So why pick Goldschmidt for MVP?

Well, again, mainly because Goldy is awesome. Between his ability to hit, hit for power, play defense and run the bases, there’s no first baseman more well-rounded than he is. And if he could put up numbers without “protection” in 2013, then he should be able to do so in 2014.

Where Trumbo can help is simply by doing his own thing. If he does, he’s going to give the D-Backs something they sorely lacked last year and help them become a better team because of it.

What the D-Backs sorely lacked last year is power outside of Goldschmidt. They weren’t a great power-hitting team, and they were even worse if you remove Goldy’s production from the equation.

Which leads us to the following illustration. Here’s a comparison of the power Trumbo and Goldschmidt displayed last year to the power the D-Backs outside of Goldschmidt displayed:

So yeah. The D-Backs absolutely could have used Trumbo‘s boomstick last year.

The good news is there’s one projection system that sees Trumbo putting up even more power in 2014. Per FanGraphs, the ZiPS projection system sees him finishing with a .245 ISO and 35 home runs. No doubt the move from Angel Stadium of Anaheim to Chase Field is a factor there.

If that power is there, ZiPS projects Trumbo to be worth 1.9 WAR. If you’re thinking that sounds low, just remember that Trumbo doesn’t get on base—ZiPS projects a seemingly generous .320 OBP—and is pretty much assured to be a lousy defender at a non-premium position in left field. 

But that’s still an upgrade over what the D-Backs had in left field last year. Quite a big one, in fact, as Arizona got minus-0.6 WAR from its left fielders in 2013. Only Twins and Astros left fielders were worse.

The Diamondbacks will need more to go right in 2014 than just Trumbo upgrading their left field production, of course. They’re going to need their rotation to account for the loss of Patrick Corbin, more consistency from Martin Prado, a full season of Aaron Hill, a bounce-back season from Miguel Montero and increased stability at the back end of their bullpen (that means you, Addison Reed). If the stars don’t line up, it will be hard for Arizona to improve on its 81-81 showings in each of the last two seasons.

But if Trumbo‘s presence does indeed help the Diamondbacks improve their record in 2014, a notable barrier between Goldschmidt and the NL MVP is going to be lifted. He had all the numbers last year. Had he been able to match McCutchen in the team success department, the MVP might have been his.

Goldschmidt‘s a good MVP pick simply by virtue of being one of the National League‘s elite players. If Trumbo does his thing and a few other D-Backs do theirs, he could be the man to beat.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Arizona Diamondbacks have high hopes for the 2014 season, after missing the playoffs in each of the past two years. Following back-to-back .500 seasons the D’Backs underwent an aggressive offseason makeover in an attempt to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in what’s expected to be a very competitive NL West race.

Arizona hopes that the additions of Mark Trumbo and Addison Reed (via separate offseason trades) and the signing of Bronson Arroyo will fill be enough to fill holes in its lineup, bullpen and starting rotation, respectively.

The Diamondbacks can count on another standout year from last year’s NL, MVP runner up Paul Goldschmidt. If Arizona gets a repeat performance from its star first baseman, strong seasons from the new players and bounce back years from a few key veterans, it may have enough to unseat the Dodgers as division champs.

The following is a comprehensive breakdown of the D’Backs’ 2014 season, which they hope ends with their own party in the pool.

Begin Slideshow

The oddly-scheduled opening day for the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers is just a couple of days away.

Spring training will halt for the two teams while they play two regular-season games in Australia. Some Diamondbacks have been locked in over the first half of March, while others have not. Luckily, those who haven’t played well will get four more exhibition games after their two-game stint down under.

For those who haven’t been following spring training, here is an update on who has been playing well and who has been struggling.

Who’s Hot

Martin Prado has been scalding throughout March. He is hitting .475 in 40 at-bats, which leads the team and is one of the best in the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. Of his 19 hits, he has slugged one home run and six doubles.

A.J. Pollock is next on the list with a .425 batting average in 40 at-bats. He has a homer, four doubles and three triples and has scored eight times.

Gerardo Parra is another player who came ready to play this spring. In 38 at-bats, Parra is hitting .342 with three doubles and seven RBI. He is also second on the team with five walks, trailing Paul Goldschmidt’s total of six.

On the pitching side, Wade Miley has probably had the best spring in terms of starters. In three starts, he has pitched 14 innings and has a 1.29 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07. He has compiled 11 strikeouts while walking three and giving up just two earned runs.

Josh Collmenter also makes the list. He has appeared in seven games and has yet to give up a run in 9.1 innings. Opponents have hit just .129 against him, and he has posted a 0.54 WHIP.

Who’s Not

For those who are struggling, we will start with the pitchers.

Trevor Cahill has had the worst spring of any Arizona pitcher. In 16 innings, Cahill has surrendered 14 earned runs and 26 hits, four of which were homers. His ERA is 7.88, and opponents are hitting .382 against him.

Brad Ziegler is another hurler who has struggled this spring. In his six appearances, he has given up nine hits and eight earned runs in 5.1 innings on the mound. He has also walked four batters and struck out only one.

Randall Delgado has started three games and thrown 11.1 innings. He has given up three home runs in his time on the mound, compiling a 5.56 ERA. He is one of five pitchers to give up more than one long ball this spring.

Getting back to the batter’s box, newly acquired Matt Tuiasosopo hasn’t hit well this spring. In 34 at-bats, he has posted a dreadful .118 batting average and has struck out 14 times. His four hits are the second lowest total of any Diamondback with at least 30 ABs.

Didi Gregorius is also struggling at the plate. He has a .205 batting average in 39 at-bats and has scored just one run. Gregorius has also been successful stealing a base once in three tries.

Tony Campana is the only Diamondback with at least six hits to not have an extra base hit. His batting average is only .216, and he has struck out nine times in 37 at-bats. The only bright spot for Campana is the five stolen bases he has compiled.

All stats courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

You can follow Trey on Twitter @treydwarren

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The season for the Arizona Diamondbacks might be over before it begins with the news, first reported by AZCentral’s Nick Piecoro, that the D’Backs’ young ace Patrick Corbin has a UCL tear in his elbow that might require Tommy John surgery. 

It’s the worst thing that could have happened to the D’Backs this spring outside of an injury to Archie Bradley or Paul Goldschmidt. Losing Corbin effectively takes Arizona out of the NL West picture. 

Piecoro reports that Corbin will likely get a second opinion this week, but more than likely this means Corbin will be heading toward surgery that will likely cost him the entire 2014 and part of the 2015 season as he rehabs from injury. 

The 24-year-old Corbin was one of Arizona’s bright stars last season, turning in a 14-8 record with a 3.41 ERA in 208.1 innings. It was good enough to land Corbin in the All-Star Game last year and allowed Arizona to project a rotation headed by Corbin and top prospect Bradley going into the future.

It’s hard to fault the D’Backs for anything that has happened to Corbin. His innings have increased at a normal pace over the past five seasons. Corbin pitched 144.2 innings in 2010 followed by 160.1 innings in 2011 and a 186.1 innings in 2012. It’s a gradual increase that led to Corbin passing the 200-innings barrier last season. 

The surgery and rehab alone isn’t a guarantee that Corbin will return to form. The D’Backs have to only look at Daniel Hudson‘s recovery from Tommy John surgery to know that nothing is guaranteed. Hudson was an extremely promising young pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2012. While making a rehab start in June 2013, Hudson injured the elbow again, causing him to undergo a second Tommy John surgery that month. 

Outside of nine starts made in 2012, the 27-year-old Hudson may effectively lose almost three full seasons in the prime of his career. If the D’Backs are out of contention this summer, it makes very little sense to push Hudson at all in his recovery this season. 

In trying to look at the D’Backs 2014 campaign in a positive light, the hope was that a rotation built around Corbin and Bradley coupled with free agent Bronson Arroyo and the improved performance of veterans Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy would allow the D’Backs to contend for a playoff spot in 2014. 

Instead, the rotation stands in shambles before the season has even started. Arroyo has been dealing with a disk issue in his back for much of the spring, Cahill left Wednesday’s game after having a minor issue with his knee, and now Corbin is potentially lost for the season before even the first game is played. 

Randall Delgado should be the obvious answer to fill Corbin’s shoes. Delgado was a central piece in last winter’s Justin Upton deal, and now the D’Backs will get a chance to fully evaluate him this season. Delgado was 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 19 starts for Arizona in 2013. 

While it was hard to imagine the D’Backs contending for the NL West or a wild-card spot with Corbin, it is virtually impossible to see this pitching staff replacing Corbin and matching up with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants this season. Arizona simply doesn’t have the starting pitching to match up head-to-head. 

If Corbin has surgery this month, it effectively means he will be coming back next season after a 12-month absence with the hope of impacting the rotation by the middle of next season. That rotation figures to look very different then the one that takes the field this season. 

Unfortunately for the D’Backs, they continue to be snake-bit while attempting to get back into playoff contention. 

Information used from Nick Piecoro/AZCentral, Baseball-Reference, Wikipedia

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Arizona Diamondbacks‘ biggest offseason move was acquiring Mark Trumbo from the Los Angeles Angels back on Dec. 10.

He is nothing short of a power hitter, slugging at least 29 homers each year since 2011. Trumbo and teammate Paul Goldschmidt are going to provide headaches in the top half of the lineup, especially with left-handed hitting Miguel Montero batting in between them.

What can fans expect from their newest acquisition?

Trumbo has played the first four years of his big league career with the Angels. More recently, he has been in the background as Los Angeles spent millions and millions of dollars on guys like Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.

Looking at the trade, the 28-year-old got the upper hand in the deal. He won’t be playing first base anymore, a position he struggled with in Los Angeles. He gets 81 games in a dome, three times as many games he has played in a dome in his entire career (27).

Let’s start with the bad side and get it out of the way.

Trumbo whiffs at a ton of pitches. He has increased his strikeout total in each season since becoming a starter in 2011. He struck out 120 times in 149 games that year, and the Californian followed that up in 2012 with 153 punchouts in 144 games. Last season, he had 184 strikeouts in 159 games.

Is that number going to drop? Yes. Of the 184 strikeouts from last season, 98 of them came in his division, the American League West. Thirty-one of those came against the Texas Rangers and 25 came from the Seattle Mariners.

The reason it will improve is because the 2014 NL West will not have the same type of pitching the 2013 AL West had. Yes, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, and the Giants have Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain.

However, many of the pitching staffs in the NL West are loaded with finesse pitchers, the type Trumbo has been most successful against in his career. More than half (49) of his career home runs (95) have come against finesse pitchers, with another 31 homers against hurlers who average a little of both power and finesse.

As for power numbers, don’t except a huge increase. Hitting at Chase Field for 81 games will be beneficial to his home run total. Trumbo should go ahead and make his reservations at Friday’s Front Row for the 2014 season.

His new divisional foes do not sport the friendliest of parks for hitters, though. Only three major league parks saw fewer home runs than the Giants’ AT&T Park. Dodger Stadium had the sixth-fewest long balls and the Padres‘ Petco Park had the ninth fewest.

Of course, the exception in the NL West is the Rockies’ Coors Field and its thin air.

Trumbo hit 19 of his 34 homers last season at home, which again is good for the home crowd at Chase Field. Last season also marked the first season of his career in which he drove in at least 100 runs. He should be able to do it again with the hitters that precede him in the lineup.

Gerardo Parra and Aaron Hill are expected to hit first and second, respectively. They will be followed by Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Montero, who didn’t have his best season last year.

With the exception of Mike Trout, those players have better numbers in terms of getting on base than those who preceded Trumbo in Anaheim.

Trumbo isn’t a guy who is going to be on base all the time, rounding the bases and scoring runs. His career high is 85 runs, which he earned last season. He doesn’t walk very often and isn’t threatening enough to get a free pass.

He has been intentionally walked just 15 times in his career. His new leadoff hitter has more than double that with only one more year of MLB service.

He is going to take his hacks and drive the ball into the gap, over the wall or nothing at all. Trumbo is a home run threat when he comes up to the plate but can be an easy strikeout victim.

However, sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery for a player to show just how good he is.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

You can follow Trey on Twitter @ treydwarren

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Bronson Arroyo is having trouble with a slightly bulging disk in his back and was scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The news first came from MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. 

In the overall scheme of things, it might turn out to be a minor issue. But, right now, it can’t be seen as anything other than a red flag for Arroyo and the 2014 D-backs. 

The 37-year-old Arroyo was signed late in the offseason to a two-year deal worth $23.5 million. Although I liked the signing of Arroyo, it seemed like the D-backs paid well above market value for a player who had few options at that point of the winter. 

Part of the attraction to Arroyo was his durability and the fact that the D-backs wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick for signing him. The ability to pencil in Arroyo for 200 innings, double-digit wins and the knowledge that he would take the ball every fifth day was a very valuable thing for the D-backs to bank on.

If Arroyo comes to the desert and immediately starts having health issues, then this deal will lead to a lot of questions for D-backs general manager Kevin Towers. Towers doesn’t sound too concerned yet in this article from AZ Central’s Zach Buchanan. There still is time in the spring and Arroyo has a history of overcoming injuries and illness as Towers points out. 

Towers had to bring in a veteran arm like Arroyo due to the inconsistency and struggles of Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill. The D-backs are giving both pitchers plenty of opportunity to gain spots in the starting rotation this spring, but have no idea what to expect from either. The early returns show that McCarthy has been very good while Cahill has continued to struggle. Both pitchers will need to give the D-backs more this year. 

Which is why the signing of Arroyo was so important for Arizona. He has been nothing but consistent in his major league career, giving the D-backs some stability in the rotation to go along with young lefties Patrick Corbin and Wade Miley. Arroyo also allows the D-backs to take their time with talented prospect Archie Bradley, although he has been very impressive this spring. 

But, a bulging-disk issue for a 37-year-old starting pitcher has to be a concern, especially when Arroyo just passed a team-administered physical in order to be signed. Which means that this injury, even if it is minor, is something that has come about since Arroyo signed with Arizona.

Arroyo will be shut down for seven to 10 days in order to give his back time to heal. Arroyo was already behind the rest of the pitching staff after signing right before the D-Backs reported for spring training. This might raise the question of his ability to be on the 2014 Opening Day roster.

This delay could allow the D-backs to take it very easy with Arroyo. By having him start the season on the disabled list, it would allow the D-backs to target the first week of April without having Arroyo rush back to meet an arbitrary deadline. The team could also get Bradley’s feet wet at the major league level. 

If the D-backs are to contend for a playoff spot this year, they will need Arroyo to be healthy and in the starting rotation. 

Information used from Steve Gilbert/MLB.com, Baseball-Reference, Zach Buchanan/AZ Central,

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t necessarily have to trade either one of their two young shortstops currently battling for the starting job. 

Both Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings, the two talented players involved in the aforementioned battle, have minor league options and could be sent to Triple-A to start the season. They might even benefit from the experience. 

And for a playoff hopeful like the D’backs, it could be extremely valuable to have a strong option waiting in the wings in case the big league starter struggles or gets injured.

But young and controllable big league-ready shortstops like Gregorius and Owings, who have the potential to be very good offensively and defensively, are at a premium around the league and it’s rare that an organization has the shortstop depth to even consider trading one. 

This is why the D’backs, who have several good shortstop prospects throughout their farm system, could be open to moving one now, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently pointed out.

While Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers acknowledged that trade talks have been limited due to Stephen Drew’s presence on the free-agent market, he would trade one of his shortstops in the “right deal” and mentioned a “top-notch catching prospect” and upper level pitching as potential returns.

Here are four teams that might target either Gregorius or Owings in a deal this spring and the trade packages it could take to get a deal done.

Begin Slideshow

The payroll numbers don’t lie and they tell a very disturbing story for the 2014 Arizona Diamondbacks and their potential fortunes for the upcoming season. 

Arizona looks to be on the books for roughly $104 million for the upcoming season, which on the surface might seem like a realistic number for a middle-market franchise like the D’Backs. Looking at the numbers a little deeper and it is easy to see why D’Backs ownership might have been initially reluctant to pick up the option of general manager Kevin Towers. 

Towers has done an extremely poor job of spending the team’s money and identifying players to sign and build around. Of the $104 million, Towers has spent roughly $27.6 million trying to sign the same type of pitcher. First it was Trevor Cahill, then it was Brandon McCarthy. Towers must now hope that the third time is the charm with the recent signing of Bronson Arroyo, which was first reported by 98.7 Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro.

Having Arroyo is fine, but paying all three pitchers roughly $27 million combined this season really hurts trying to build the rest of the roster. 

The outfield is another area where the D’Backs have spent money with very little return to speak of. Last season, the team signed Cody Ross, eventually to replace the departed Justin Upton. The only problem is that Ross was injured for most of the season and enters this season as a giant question mark as he recovers from a bad hip injury suffered last August. 

Ross sits on the books at $9.5 million for this season and next. Ross will also likely sit on the bench with the D’Backs having acquired Mark Trumbo earlier this winter and the re-signing of outfielder Gerardo Parra. Even with the $19.1 million tied up in Ross, Trumbo and Parra, the D’Backs will still likely receive below-average production from their outfield this season and Trumbo‘s defense will be a concern in left field. 

The D’Backs need catcher Miguel Montero to have a serious rebound season in 2014 or legitimate questions will continue to be raised about his five-year deal for $60 million and how little return that Arizona has seen on its investment so far. 

The money spent on Ross, Parra, Montero, Trumbo, McCarthy, Cahill and Arroyo comes out to be $56.8 million this season, with only Trumbo looking like a potential core player past 2014. Throw in the $22 million due to Martin Prado and Aaron Hill and the $7 million golden parachute given to J.J. Putz this season, and the D’Backs will have over $85.8 million tied up in just 10 players. 

It means that the D’Backs have less then $20 million left to fill out the rest of the holes on the roster this season, illustrating the potential lack of depth that might hurt the team by continuing to trade prospects and young cost-controlled players. 

The masterstroke from Towers was getting a contract extension done with legitimate star Paul Goldschmidt before his breakout season in 2013. It was something that I advocated last March and something the team finally got done at the end of last March (ESPN story). Goldschmidt was one of the biggest bargains in sports last season outside of the Los Angeles Angels‘ Mike Trout, producing a ridiculous 7.1 WAR on a contract that paid him only $500,000. 

Outside of Trout, you could make the argument that Goldschmidt has the best contract in baseball over the next three seasons, with the D’Backs on the hook for a little over $10 million through the 2016 season. It’s value that the D’Backs will need, given the inefficient spending on the rest of the roster. 

It is also shows how much pressure there is on pitching prospect Archie Bradley to be as good as advertised when he finally makes the D’Backs rotation and how Arizona can ill-afford Patrick Corbin to have a sophomore slump in his second season. 

While $104 million might sound like a lot of money, it needs to be spent on the right players. If the D’Backs are going to contend in the future, it is something that they need to keep in the forefront of every deal that they make and every contract that they sign moving forward.

Information used from Cot’s Baseball Contracts/Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, John Gambadoro/Arizona Sports, ESPN

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Leave it to the Arizona Diamondbacks to make a transaction that ought to have you scratching your head in bewilderment.

About said transaction, this happened on Friday: The Diamondbacks agreed to terms with veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com had the news first:

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, Arroyo will make $9.5 million in 2014 and 2015 and has a $4.5 million buyout on an $11 million option for 2016. So he’ll make at least $23.5 million in two years, and potentially $30 million over three.

Because you read that first paragraph up there, you know I have some not-so-nice things to say about this deal. Before we get to those, I want to say some nice things first. It’s not like this is the worst deal ever made, after all. Another Barry Zito didn’t just happen.

For one, the money is fine by this market’s standards. Arroyo’s deal is essentially a modified version of Tim Hudson’s two-year, $23 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. And as I wrote last week, the $30 million Arroyo could earn over three years is perfectly fair given both his age and his track record.

Shoot, the guy’s a solid pitcher. He’s good for over 200 innings like clockwork. And while his peripherals are sketchy, you have to hand it to the guy for consistently posting ERAs in the 3.00s despite pitching at Great American Ball Park half the time.

So no, my issues aren’t with Arroyo’s contract or Arroyo himself. It’s how he fits with the Diamondbacks that bugs me.

Before the Diamondbacks signed Arroyo, their projected starting rotation looked like this:

1. Patrick Corbin
2. Trevor Cahill
3. Wade Miley
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Randall Delgado

Maybe they wouldn’t have ended up in that exact same order, but it was going to be those five guys. Not a bad rotation, at that.

But not a great rotation either. The Diamondbacks seemed to realize that, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported in December that Arizona wanted to add a “top-of-the-rotation starter.” You know, somebody like David Price or Jeff Samardzija off the trade market, or Masahiro Tanaka off the open market.

Adding one of these guys would have made sense. The top of Arizona’s rotation would have gotten a boost, and the ripple effect most likely would have been Delgado being booted from the mix. He was the weak link in Arizona’s rotation last year, after all, finishing with a 0.2 fWAR.

Well, the Diamondbacks didn’t get one of those guys. They got Arroyo. Now that he’s in, Delgado is very likely still the odd man out. While that may look like a good swap considering Arroyo’s track record, here’s the thing:

If you look at certain numbers, he and Delgado are basically the same pitcher.

Via FanGraphs, here are the “certain numbers” worth looking at, all of which are strictly from 2013:

Delgado was better at striking guys out. Arroyo was better at not walking guys and getting ground balls. But the differences in those three categories are very slight, and that speaks to the reality that both pitchers are certainly more crafty than overpowering.

And as far as xFIP—a version of FIP that tries to normalize a pitcher’s home run rate—is concerned, Delgado’s crafty style was every bit as effective as Arroyo’s crafty style. That xFIP column, which shows xFIP figures scaled to league average, says the same thing. SIERA, or “Skill-Interactive ERA,” is yet another sabermetric thingamajig that says the two pitchers were basically clones in 2013.

Delgado will only be 24 in 2014. He’s under club control through 2018. He’s not going anywhere, and he’s going to be cheap for a while. Yet this didn’t stop the Diamondbacks from agreeing to pay $23.5 million for Arroyo to basically be an older, more expensive Randall for a couple of years.

Now, OK, sure. You can argue that the expense is justified by the fact that Arroyo is a proven innings-eater, something Delgado is not. The Diamondbacks are very likely to get a couple 200-inning seasons out of Arroyo, which is not a bad thing.

But let’s give Delgado some due credit. He pitched 114.1 innings in 19 starts in 2013, an average of six innings per start. Before Arizona signed Arroyo, the Steamer projections had Delgado down for 182 innings in 32 starts. A bit conservative, perhaps, but fair enough.

So in all likelihood, the Diamondbacks aren’t paying $9.5 million a season for Arroyo to rack up dozens more innings than Delgado. Since he hasn’t pitched any more than 202 innings in any of the last three seasons, he’s likely to only give them maybe 20 more innings than Delgado might have given them.

That’s not that many extra innings for so many extra dollars. The Diamondbacks have upgraded, but it’s not nearly the kind of upgrade they had in mind when they conjured plans to go acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter.

The good news for Delgado is that he’ll still be needed, of course. It stands to reason that he’s now the first in line to step into the rotation in the event of an injury. And when you have Brandon McCarthy on your staff, it’s a good idea to have a guy like that.

But with Delgado lower on the rotation ladder, another guy who’s now lower is Archie Bradley. That might not be the best thing for the Diamondbacks.

Bradley is the top pitcher in MLB.com’s prospect rankings, and he looks darn near ready for the show after posting a 1.97 ERA in 21 starts at the Double-A level in 2013. In fact, Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com wrote just this week that Bradley doesn’t hesitate to say he’s ready for the majors. And with spring training coming up, he was hoping to put his foot in the door.

“My goal isn’t to win the fifth spot,” said Bradley, “it’s to make them, every day when they go into meetings, have to think, ‘Hey, he’s doing everything he can. He’s putting pressure on us.'”

Who knows? Maybe Bradley could have won the No. 5 spot in Arizona’s rotation this spring by dominating while Delgado or one of the veterans struggled. Either that, or he could have stepped in early on in the season after an injury or a demotion. In effect, he had a shot to be what Gerrit Cole was for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2013.

With Arroyo coming aboard, though, the possibility of Bradley being the next Cole just got a little more unlikely. Given Bradley’s absurd talent, it’s possible that the Diamondbacks will now miss out on a handful of dominant starts in 2014. Maybe even more than a handful.

One can think of worse ripple effects than that, to be sure, but that the Diamondbacks were comfortable with allowing it to happen is puzzling. Bradley’s a guy they should want on a fast track to the majors, and they just buried him a little deeper. That they did so for the sake of paying big bucks for a piece of equipment they already had only makes it more puzzling.

But then, these are the Diamondbacks. They couldn’t wait to get rid of Justin Upton. They couldn’t wait to get their hands on Mark Trumbo. Lest we forget, they also dealt a solid third base prospect for a relief pitcher.

You never know what they’ll do next. All we know is that Diamondbacks gonna Diamondbacks.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This is what the Arizona Diamondbacks have been waiting for. Masahiro Tanaka will be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles after a contentious battle with MLB over the posting fee. It was news that was first reported by the Japanese media outlets Sponichi and Nikkan Sports and then later confirmed by the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen.

Arizona desperately needs a front-line ace quality starting pitcher to lead their rotation. This is a potential opportunity for the D’Backs to acquire a 25-year-old stud pitcher, one who might develop into an ace in America.

Tanaka‘s numbers in Japan last season were stunning; 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA. Tanaka has been pitching in the Japanese league for seven seasons and has a career record of 99-35 with an ERA of 2.30. 

The deal to post Tanaka seemed like it would be in jeopardy from the very beginning after NPB and MLB came to an agreement to modify the posting system to post Japanese players reported in this article from the Japan Times.

The biggest change to the system was the cap on the posting fee paid to Japanese teams. The most teams can bid now would be $20 million, opening the market for almost any team in baseball to make a bid.

It was a change to make the system more fair and to stop large market teams like New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers from using their financial muscle to scare off other teams. 

Now, any team can bid $20 million for the opportunity to sign Tanaka, even the D’Backs. It’s a far cry from the $51.7 million posting fee paid for Yu Darvish and the $51.1 million posting fee paid for Daisuke Matsuzaka.

The D’Backs have been linked to Tanaka all winter, stating the player is the number one priority in this tweet by Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Arizona general manager Kevin Towers told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro the team would be willing to sign Tanaka to a long-term deal. 

It seems from the very beginning of free agency that Arizona had formulated their off-season plan to chase Tanaka.

The D’Backs face an enormous challenge to lure Tanaka to the desert over other more attractive destinations, including the Yankees. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman has a breakdown of the eight teams that will most likely be in direct competition with the Yankees for Tanaka‘s services. 

The D’Backs need to be all in, here.

This can’t be a situation where the team talks about Tanaka all winter and then comes up short in the bidding process and say they gave it the best shot. Going back to a free agent starter like Matt Garza would be a tough sell if the team has been lukewarm on signing him to this point. 

The starting point for a deal with Tanaka will likely be in the $100 million range, something the D’Backs need to be prepared for. There would be plenty of risk to a large deal with Tanaka, but adding Tanaka to a rotation that already includes Patrick Corbin and potentially Archie Bradley would be much improved over last season.

Arizona can sell the NL West as a better landing spot for the young Japanese pitcher, a division with larger ballparks and no designated hitter to face. The D’Backs have also shown a willingness to travel, as next season’s trip to Australia displays in this article by MLB.com’s Paul Hagan.

Tanaka would be a huge marketing opportunity for Arizona, one that would increase the D’Backs national and international recognition across the globe. 

The opportunity is there and Tanaka can be signed. Are the D’Backs up to the challenge? That’s the quesiton.

Information used from Sponichi, Nikkan Sports, Jim Allen/Kyodo News, Baseball Reference, Japan Times, Ken Rosenthal/Fox Sports, Nick Piecoro/Arizona Republic, Joel Sherman/New York Post, Paul Hagan/MLB.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com