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Atlanta Braves pitcher Kris Medlen is headed for Tommy John surgery, according to MLB.com. The same is true for the A’s ace, Jarrod Parker. It’s also true for Brandon Beachy, who follow Corey Luebke and Daniel Hudson.

While this is all too common among pitchers at all levels, all of them are headed through the process for a second time.

He previously had the surgery after rupturing his ulnar collateral ligament in 2010. Medlen made it back and excelled both in the rotation and the bullpen. His ascension to dominant starter was surprising and occasionally attributed to his Tommy John surgery, though there is absolutely no evidence that he or any other pitcher has seen a performance gain from the procedure.

Facing a second procedure, Medlen faces the same year away from the game and grueling yearlong rehab. Many Braves fans are asking whether or not he faces the same sort of potential when he returned. Second replacements are called revisions by surgeons and are rare in terms of surgery. Only a handful of specialists like James Andrews, Neal ElAttrache, and Tim Kremchek will do more than a few of these.

Medlen is hardly alone. Brandon Beachy is also headed for a second Tommy John surgery, adding to the long list of Braves trekking from Atlanta to Dr. James Andrews’ office. Add in Patrick Corbin from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Jarrod Parker, who would also be having a second surgery and had his first while with the Diamondbacks, to the list of recently injured pitchers. 

There’s not much in the way of evidence or even anecdote, but what we know gives us a good look at Medlen’s future. He should be able to return sometime in early 2015 and there’s no physical reason why he couldn’t return to the Braves rotation and even return to his previous level of performance.

While Tommy John surgery allows a player to come back, it doesn’t make them invulnerable. In fact, it’s the coming back that is likely the problem. Pitchers, especially mature and successful pitchers, aren’t likely to make significant mechanical changes. Do the same thing and you’ll get the same result, which, for these pitchers, was a ruptured ligament. 

It’s important to note that this is not a failure of the surgery, the rehab or even the pitcher. This is like blaming the car for a tire going bald. It’s a recurrence of a problem with a known etiology. Calling this a failure demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of the procedure.

It’s easy to suggest biomechanics should be changed, that hip and shoulder strength and flexibility could be augmented, but it’s much harder to tell a multi-million dollar pitcher to change what has made him successful. 

On top of that, the use of biomechanics is spotty at best in the major leagues. Even with the use, teams don’t have a perfect prediction system.

One of the teams that uses biomechanics extensively is the Baltimore Orioles. In spite of this and several other factors, the Orioles lost prize pitching prospect Dylan Bundy for a year after he injured his elbow last season. He had Tommy John surgery and should be back this summer. Most teams ignore biomechanics altogether, including the Braves.

So even if we don’t know the force that Medlen, Bundy or many individual pitchers are exerting on their elbows on each and every pitch, we do know that there’s clear evidence that the ligament broke down, either insidiously or traumatically. Given the same tasks, similar force and any other significant changes, a transplanted ligament is likely to break down again after a period of time. 

One thing we do not know for any pitcher is how much their ulnar collateral ligament can handle. There’s simply no way to know this, though we know that it will be significantly different for every pitcher, just as they exert different forces in their pitching motion. Some pitchers are likely to have “weak” ligaments and some have strong, making the same force give different results.

There is a “Tommy John honeymoon,” a period after the surgery where it appears there is a significantly lower risk of damaging the replaced ligament. Studies have shown that over a period of four to five years, the transplanted tendon becomes a ligament. However, remember that there’s at least a chance that the pitcher’s ligament was structurally unable to handle the load of pitching. A strong harvested tendon helps, but at a cellular level, will change.

Medlen was inside the normal “honeymoon” period, so it would be interesting to know what Dr. Andrews will find inside his elbow. Was the transplanted tendon fully ligamentized? Was his natural ligament weaker? No pitcher is going to let a surgeon open up the non-dominant side to check. 

The surgery for a revision is different as well. It’s not substantially different in technique, but requires some changes. The bone has already been drilled for the previous ligament replacement, but new holes are required. There’s less space for that, as well as further damage and “mileage” on the elbow. 

The upside is that the player has been through the process before. He’s not likely to be surprised by anything in the rehab and understands the effort and patience necessary. As long as the player is not struggling on a performance level and is not advanced in age, there’s little to show currently that a revision is less successful than an original.

A recent study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine and conducted by the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic focused on the rate of return from Tommy John surgery. Previous studies peg the number anywhere from about 75 percent up to 87 percent. This recent study shows that only five players out of 179 did not return to play. 

Dr. Neal ElAttrache, a Kerlan-Jobe surgeon and team physician for the Los Angeles Dodgers, told me in a phone conversation that the return rate doesn’t surprise him. “The surgery itself isn’t the problem any more. It fixes something that was previous career ending and gives the player a chance to come back and play at the same level.” 

The study is clear that there is no performance boost and there may be a bigger cost. Currently, there are no pitchers in the Hall of Fame that have had Tommy John surgery. John Smoltz is likely to be the first in the next couple years, but behind him, there’s not much coming.

Adam Wainwright is the most likely, with almost no one else “on pace.” Pitchers like Chris Carpenter, AJ Burnett and Joe Nathan simply don’t have Hall of Fame numbers and little time to accumulate them.

I spoke with Jay Jaffe from SI.com, who has done extensive work on quantifying Hall of Famers. Jaffe believes that there are three factors holding back Tommy John pitchers (including Tommy John himself!) from being inducted. The first is that the BBWAA has been stingy in electing pitchers, putting in only 15 since 1981.

The second is that durability is key to getting to huge numbers, like 300 wins. Of the pitchers that have hit major milestones, few have had major surgeries, with only Roger Clemens having a major surgery, though he missed almost no time after it.

Finally, Jaffe believes that because the operation was done so seldom into the mid-1990s, there were fewer opportunities. I agree, but I’m focused on the second with the dearth of likely Hall of Famers coming.

There are a number of players that have had two Tommy John surgeries, or even more. The “record” is five, but Jose Rijo is a special case and several of the failures were caused by external forces rather than being an actual redo. Nine current players, including Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Chris Capuano, Jason Frasor and Kyle Drabek have had two. 

While it may appear that there are few starters that have returned after a repeat Tommy John, it’s still a small sample size. Since relievers tend to be max effort pitchers, one theory is that they are more likely to do a traumatic sprain of the repaired ligament. There simply haven’t been any studies done, though anecdotally this matches up with surgical findings. 

As more pitchers have the surgery when they are younger, the two will collide and could open up the possibility that we see an explosion of second and third revisions. How baseball as a whole deals with this could be one of the most important sports medicine decisions they make in the next decade.

Medlen’s revision will not make him invulnerable any more than the first surgery did. If he continues to put too much force on the elbow, it will break down again. However, there’s no reason to believe that he will not be able to return. The last decade of sports medicine research shows us that. 

As a symbol, Medlen and the other pitchers headed to operating tables remind us that as a whole, baseball doesn’t know how to prevent arm injuries. A decade plus of pitch counts, cautious progressions and long toss have not reduced pitching injuries one iota. It’s time to step back and maybe even start over, or else get used to seeing the best pitchers heading to surgery time and again.

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The Atlanta Braves could lose another starting pitcher to a second Tommy John surgery as Brandon Beachy is now scheduled to undergo further evaluation on his elbow. Kris Medlen is facing the same diagnosis as the duo gets prepared to visit Dr. James Andrews on Monday.

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution passed along word of the latest potential setback for a Braves rotation that was among the best in baseball last season:

Kevin McAlpin of the Braves Radio Network provided comments from the 27-year-old starter, who now faces the potential of going through another long and arduous recovery process:

Beachy has only made 18 starts over the past two seasons due to his first Tommy John procedure. When healthy he’s been a bright spot for Atlanta with a 3.23 career ERA over 46 starts with 275 strikeouts in 267.2 innings.

He was forced leave his last start in spring training early due to discomfort in his right biceps. Initially, it was thought the issue was minor and related to getting back to full strength. O’Brien notes the right-hander was told the ligament was sound:

Apparently, that might not have been the case after all. So now he’ll get checked out by Andrews along with Medlen early next week to see if both pitchers need to go through the Tommy John process again, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported:

Bowman also provided some of Beachy’s thoughts on his recent x-ray:

The Braves entered spring with plenty of depth for the rotation, but two key injuries would cause that leeway to get eliminated right away. Medlen and Beachy were both expected to play prominent roles as the team looked to defend its NL East title.

Freddy Garcia and Alex Wood, who entered the year battling for a rotation spot, are now both likely locks for the starting five to open the season. David Hale could also get called upon to make some starts in the early going.

The team also signed Ervin Santana to a one-year contract to bolster the rotation. Since he got a late start after sitting on the free-agent market for awhile, it’s unclear exactly when he’ll be ready to take the mound for regular-season action.

ESPN provided an updated look at the situation the Braves face:

With Opening Day less than three weeks away, the only healthy members of the Braves’ projected rotation are second-year pitchers Julio Teheran (14-8 last season) and Alex Wood, rookie David Hale and non-roster invitee Freddy Garcia. Atlanta also signed veteran Gavin Floyd, but he is coming off Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready to pitch until at least May.

As for Beachy, his future becomes a lot more murky if he’s indeed forced to undergo another Tommy John procedure. Coming back from that once is tough enough, but doing it twice while also returning to top form is a major challenge.

The Braves should be able to weather the storm and remain competitive in the division assuming they don’t face any other key losses to the rotation. But their margin for error certainly becomes a lot thinner if Beachy and Medlen both miss the entire campaign.

It’s not the way Atlanta wanted things to go with Opening Day still a couple weeks away.

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There is no such thing as a five-man rotation anymore. Looking around the league, teams are planning ahead for injuries to their pitchers to determine how deep they can go, packing in seven or eight guys rather than trying to prevent injuries or shorten up the rotation. A great example of this is the Atlanta Braves, a team that is already suffering through injuries to Mike Minor, Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, as well as a known issue with new acquisition Gavin Floyd. 

The Braves announced Tuesday morning that an MRI on Medlen showed “ligament involvement.” Given that Medlen had Tommy John surgery in 2010, this is not a good sign. Dave O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution had more info: 

While Medlen will have more tests, many speculate that he will need a second replacement of his UCL. Leo Mazzone, a former Braves pitching coach, was on 680 The Fan in Atlanta and said, “Any ligament involvement is bad.” Medlen does not have a complete tear (rupture) of the ligament, though it is also more difficult to read the ligament after the replacement, due both to physical changes and the hardware used.

What the Braves have now is a mess. If the season were to start today, the most likely scenario would have Freddy Garcia as the second starting pitcher and Alex Wood, who would be the bullpen lefty in a perfect world, would shift over to be the third man in the starting rotation. Behind them, the Braves would have to get creative, with prospect Cody Martin being the top possibility. 

That not only puts pressure on the back of the rotation, it puts a ton of pressure on the ace-by-default Julio Teheran. The young pitcher only went 185 innings last season, and to expect much more than 200 would be stretching things. While Teheran does project as a potential ace, the Braves also have to protect him in the first season where he’ll jump the 190-innings hurdle.

That one, more than any other mark, is a real test for pitchers. While 200 innings is used more because it’s a round number, my research from 2003 showed that 190 seemed to be the bigger test. Pitchers that stayed above that mark tended to do it year after year, but once they dropped below it, even by a little, it was tough to come back. There are a lot of pitchers who never make that mark, though they can be very productive otherwise.

A team goes into a season planning for 1,500 innings. The season is set to be 1,458, but there’s extra-innings games and maybe the playoffs, so 1,500 is a good number. For starters, the team needs to get somewhere between 900 and 1,000 innings. Having five 200-inning pitchers is unlikely, so a team either needs one or two to go above the mark, for the bullpen to take more of the load or for the load to be distributed over more than five pitchers. 

Given the situation now, general manager Frank Wren and his team are likely looking at all the options. Panic is a poor negotiating position, but when the plan for depth that they had—signing Garcia and Floyd to protect younger pitchers like Martin—has failed in mid-March, every other team is going to know the situation. I imagine that scouts are already watching the back fields at Disney for an ask.

Many are wondering if the Braves will make a last-minute offer for Ervin Santana, the last solid free-agent pitcher on the market. After firing his agent, Santana has received several offers and was strongly linked to the Blue Jays. While Santana has a preference to stay in the AL, the Braves could be forced to up their offer and make him consider Atlanta.

Others are asking whether Wren will hit the trade market. There’s very little available, with crazy Twitter ideas coming fast and furious. Options like David Price and Jeff Samardzija have been mentioned, but neither the Rays nor the Cubs would give up either of their aces without a ridiculous return, something the Braves just don’t have, even if they were willing to add on to a package starting with Christian Bethancourt. A major trade would gut the team’s system, though the Braves could give a lower-level prospect for a more ready pitcher.

On pure stats, the Braves had a terrible 2013. They ranked 27th out of 30 teams, losing over 1,500 days to the DL. For pitchers, it was over half the total, with four pitchers losing more than 100 days each. That is significantly up from losing pitcher totals in the 500-day range in the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Most of those major losses was to Tommy John surgery. While many say it’s unavoidable, the sheer numbers that the Braves have had demand some attention. Compare having multiple pitchers in various stages of rehab to the Rays, a team that’s had three Tommy John surgeries in the past decade. Yes, it’s possible to reduce injuries, though it requires a serious commitment. 

As I mentioned earlier, one of the possibilities for filling in behind the injured starters is to transfer some of the load to the pen.

For the Braves, that may not work either. They already have Jonny Venters rehabbing to return and had lost Eric O’Flaherty to Tommy John as well, though O’Flaherty signed with the Oakland A’s this offseason despite his status. The Braves pen has more depth, even if Wood gets shifted to the rotation, but the pitchers are young and untested—precisely the type of pen that a team shouldn’t shift the load to if there’s another option. 

In fact, more of this pen may need to be shifted over. Wirfin Obispo is fighting for a pen slot, but at age 29, he might be pushed to make a couple spot starts. The same is true for David Hale, who has the advantage of having worked as a starter for much of last season at Triple-A Gwinnett. Besides Cody Martin, the bulk of the Braves’ pitching prospects are in the low minors, making that a tougher shift. 

Some of this may recall the Toronto Blue Jays. For over a decade, the Jays have had a terrible time keeping pitchers healthy. Their medical staff is well regarded, but pitchers at all levels and of all types end up with all sorts of arm issues. It’s a major hole in their plans and has held them back by causing depth issues and taking out some top prospects from longer-term usage. 

The Braves are also well regarded, but their pitching problems have seemingly been coming to a head over the past few seasons.

One source I spoke with believes that the pitching program the Braves use is at fault. “You can’t look right at when Leo Mazzone left. That’s been too far out, but his influence and his program has faded. There’s probably no one left that worked with him,” I was told Monday. 

There are no easy solutions here, though the Braves are looking at all possibilities. The team has not been progressive in regard to biomechanics, but the Braves do use video heavily to assess pitchers. My source also told me that the team is willing to get creative with organizing its staff and would consider a four-man rotation if it felt that was the best way to get through the season. 

Frank Wren and skipper Fredi Gonzalez have a big task ahead of them. It’s hard enough to build a pitching staff in modern baseball. It’s even harder to rebuild one on the fly.

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The excitement surrounding the new season officially began when the first pitches were thrown out on Monday. The Atlanta Braves still have unanswered questions about their starting rotation, which should be settled in the next few weeks.

Using the projected rotation of Alex Wood, Julio Teheran, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy, in no particular order, the Braves have several young pitchers with very few years of experience between them. Lack of experience can be deadly in October. Here’s how the pitchers can help propel their team into the playoffs. 

For starters, Evan Gattis didn’t play catcher for the majority of the games last season. These pitchers need to become comfortable with his style of play during spring training. Once the season begins, the focus needs to shift from Gattis to how these pitchers carry themselves in a game. Consistency is key.

The first part of the regular season could be rocky for the Braves. Beachy is still a big question mark. If he is able to make a full recovery from Tommy John surgery and fall back into his groove in the beginning of the season, then that’s the best-case scenario.

Before his injury in 2012, Beachy held a 2.00 ERA but could only complete 13 games before needing surgery. He was able to start five games last season, holding a less impressive 4.50 ERA. That isn’t surprising or unexpected; he needed to shake off the cobwebs and play it safe so he didn’t irritate his shoulder or injure himself again. However, for the Braves to maximize their playoff chances, Beachy must prove he hasn’t lost his game.

Alex Wood is another uncertainty this season. He’s a young star with potential. He started 11 games for the Braves last season, while also spending 20 games as a relief pitcher. He may have a shaky start to the season if he lands a spot on the starting rotation but will hopefully find his footing as a valuable asset to the team as the season moves forward.

The Braves need a pitcher that will stand as a leader. When Tim Hudson left for San Francisco during the offseason, the move left Atlanta without a real seasoned veteran in the rotation. This position could belong to any of the remaining three pitchers listed above—Teheran, Medlen or Minor. One of these players needs to step up and feel confident leading the team.

Keep in mind that these young pitchers are very talented. Setting records for the ball club at the start of their careers shows that they have potential and ability. Braves reporter Kevin McAlpin tweeted an important stat at the end of last season:

Medlen always looks like he is having fun on the mound. He would be able to calm the team down in the high pressure October days. With a 3.11 ERA in 2013, he would be a solid pitcher that players should feel comfortable standing behind.

Minor would also be a candidate for this role, considering he has been forced to teach himself to calm down. Not so long ago, as Braves fans may remember, Minor used to sail through a few innings without problems, then, after one mistake, Minor would fall apart. He’s matured since those frustrating days and deals with tough jams with a calm and collected demeanor.

Minor has played in more games each season since his 2010 debut and lowered his ERA each season. He currently is sitting with a 3.21 ERA, but a new season has the possibility of even lower numbers. He has surprised us before; it could happen again.

Fast forward the video below to 0:34. These are highlights of Minor’s playoff performance against the Dodgers last season. He was reliable in his first playoff start; there’s reason to believe that he’ll be successful in the future, as well. 

Not only is the pitching staff young and fairly inexperienced, but so are the majority of the Braves team. In order to keep the team calm during the playoffs, the pitchers need to be able to bring the team into October with momentum.

Momentum is a funny thing. It can turn games around in the blink of an eye and, depending which side your team is on, make you jump off your couch or crumble to the floor. This isn’t to say that the pitchers are the only ones responsible for creating a winning record as the postseason nears. However, if their pitching is consistent and reliable, the bats will hopefully come through on their side.

Young teams need momentum much more than veteran teams. Veterans have seen both sides and know, for the most part, what works and how to stay calm in the middle of the biggest games of their careers. Younger players haven’t gotten the chance to build this wisdom yet. Without many veterans on the Braves squad, they need to learn this on their own and have the momentum push them forward, while they’re gaining the experience.

The four games that the Braves played in October last year will help this team. The ones who weren’t around for 2012 now know the burning feeling of defeat in the first round of the playoffs, as far too many Braves and fans have had to endure for years. They also know the pressure, atmosphere and what to expect. The pitchers that weren’t on last year’s roster will rely on the few that were.

There hasn‘t been an official word from the clubhouse regarding the pitching rotation or opening day pitcher, but that hasn‘t stopped reporters from making speculations. 

Once the starting rotation is solidified in the next few weeks, the process can begin, keeping in mind that consistency and momentum are key. The lack of experience will not ruin Atlanta’s playoff chances if these pieces all fall together. 

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After a winter of lavish spending on homegrown, ascending talents, the Atlanta Braves have locked up their young core—Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran—for years, ensuring the quartet will help guide the franchise into a new stadium in 2017.

Technically, 24-year-old Jason Heyward belongs in that group. Amid the wave of lucrative, long-term pacts handed out by Braves general manager Frank Wren, Heyward‘s name popped up on the transaction log on the same day news broke about Freeman’s franchise-changing deal.

Yet Heyward, potentially the most talented player on the roster, wasn’t guaranteed anything beyond the 2015 season. Atlanta was wise to buy out his remaining arbitration years, but the talented right fielder is careening toward an inevitable date with free agency. 

Clearly, Atlanta altered its business model this winter. After years of sporting payroll figures less than $100 million, the Braves locked up the core of a team that will soon become expensive. Despite that spending, Heyward wasn’t showered with the riches of his teammates. 

Why?

It depends what answer is more suitable to your opinion of Heyward as a player, both in the present and future. 

The easy answer: Heyward, despite the highest pedigree of any former top prospect on the roster, hasn’t yet proven to be worthy of a major commitment.  

The harder and more likely answer: Heyward‘s price tag, based on talent and production thus far in the majors, is too much for Atlanta’s ownership to handle.

Let’s start with the easy explanation for Heyward‘s unimpressive two-year, $13.3 million deal.

Despite immense talent, Heyward hasn’t yet become a dominant, game-changing force for the Braves or anything close to a perennial NL MVP candidate. That sentiment is backed up by counting stats.

Since 2010, Heyward has played in 100-plus big league games in each season. His big frame and natural swing seem custom built for power. Yet Heyward has only one campaign of 20-plus home runs thus far for Atlanta’s lineup.

Last year, Heyward drove in just 38 runs. That figure, while surprising on the surface, is an even more head-scratching statistic when looking at names above him on the RBI leader list: Jeff Keppinger, Darwin Barney and Daniel Descalso. 

Atlanta’s right fielder isn’t just producing less RBI than middle-of-the-order sluggers—he’s driving in less runs than replacement-level hitters. 

When Heyward emerged on the scene in 2010—launching a home run in his first major league at-bat—the sky seemed limitless for Atlanta’s new star. During that rookie season, he backed it up with a .393 on-base percentage and 131 OPS+, good enough to garner a second-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote. 

Coupled with consecutive top-five prospect rankings by Baseball America, Heyward was expected to become an instant star. Since the 2010 season ended, Braves fans and Atlanta’s front office have been caught holding their collective breath for that star to arrive.

Although he hasn’t blossomed into baseball’s best player, the reason for Heyward‘s uncertain future has little to do with what he hasn’t done. Instead, it’s about the rare company he’s in among on-base machines and young, productive outfielders throughout baseball history.

Over the last few years, executives have spent lavishly on top-of-the-order hitters.  

Prior to the 2011 season, Carl Crawford signed a seven-year, $142 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. At the time, his career OBP was .337.

Before the 2012 season, Jose Reyes bolted New York for a six-year, $106 million deal with the Miami Marlins. Upon his arrival, Reyes’ career OBP stood at .341.

This winter, the New York Yankees awarded Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $152 million pact to ignite the lineup. Since debuting in 2007, the former Red Sox outfielder has posted a .350 OBP.

Heyward enters 2014 with a career on-base percentage of .352, better than Crawford, Reyes or Ellsbury at the time of their contracts.

Last season, Atlanta moved Heyward into the leadoff spot for 30 games. During that time, the then 23-year-old reached base over 40 percent of the time. Heading into 2014, Fredi Gonzalez envisions Heyward reprising that role, per David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. 

“If you had to start the season tomorrow, I think you would run him out there,” Gonzalez said. 

If he does, his career OBP could soon dwarf the outputs of Crawford, Reyes and Ellsbury.

Of course, Heyward‘s excellence isn’t just rooted in one statistic or contained to a specific skill set. When his age-22 season yielded 27 home runs, the young left-handed hitter placed himself in rare company among young outfield stars.

Over the course of baseball history, only 12 outfielders have reached the following criteria through their respective age-23 seasons: 2,000 plate appearances, 70 home runs and a .350 OBP. As the following chart illustrates, baseball’s best outfielders began their careers looking very similar to Heyward.

If this information is available to us, it’s certainly available to Atlanta’s front office and Heyward‘s representation.

When Heyward‘s name comes up, uncertainty and unfulfilled promise are often cited. When the Braves chose to leave their right fielder out of their long-term planning this winter, those narratives were at the forefront.

Sometimes, the easy answer isn’t the right answer.

It’s fair to say that Heyward hasn’t reached his potential. But it’s also eye-opening to consider what he’s done before that day arrives. 

When the Braves chose to re-sign the bulk of their core, Heyward wasn’t left out on purpose. Instead, it was an admission that this player may cost too much to retain.

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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The Atlanta Braves have gotten extension-crazy all of a sudden, but that doesn’t mean they’re handing out crazy extensions. The first one they handed out this month was a good one, and now they’ve handed out another good one.

This second extension is going to young right-hander Julio Teheran, as the Braves gladly announced on Twitter:

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com was the first to report the terms of the six-year guarantee:

As for the 2020 option, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says it’s for $12 million with a $1 million buyout. Teheran‘s new deal, therefore, guarantees him $33.4 million at least and $44.4 million at most.

Braves general manager Frank Wren clearly feels like he crossed an important item off his to-do list by locking up Teheran for the rest of the decade, saying in a press release, via MLB.com: 

We are excited to sign Julio to a long-term contract. He is one of the best young pitchers in the National League and one of our core of players we expect to be together for a number of years.

This, obviously, is a much more subdued deal than the eight-year, $135 million whopper the Braves gave first baseman Freddie Freeman. But that was a good deal in my book because of how A) $135 million isn’t as absurd as it used to be and B) the Braves were locking up a player who’s still young and getting better through, amazingly, what would have been five free-agent years.

To that latter end, the Teheran deal isn’t that much of a slam dunk. Since he was slated to hit free agency after 2018, the Braves are only getting a max of two free-agent years. Darn.

But there’s not a whole lot to complain about elsewhere. While it must be acknowledged that any long-term contract for a pitcher is inherently risky due to the risk of catastrophic injuries, the list of things to like starts with…

• Considering the price for good pitching these days, a six- or seven-year deal that will fall somewhere between $33.4 million and $44.4 million is nothing. Nothing, I say!
• Teheran‘s only through his age-22 season. He’s still really young, and any pitcher who’s still really young has the potential to get better.

This is a deal that would have been a solid one even if it had gone to a “meh” pitcher. But it’s not going to a “meh” pitcher. It’s going to a rather good pitcher who indeed still has room to get better.

Now begins the phase where we look at how good Teheran is, which basically involves us taking a close look at what made his breakout season in 2013 possible.

We’re going to start by looking at some numbers from FanGraphs:

Most of what’s here is good, including how Teheran‘s ERA was notably lower than average. And while they were both a bit higher than his ERA, it’s good that his FIP and xFIP were notably lower than the league average as well. That’s an indication Teheran didn’t succeed by virtue of a heaping helping of good luck in 2013.

A big reason why is pictured in those K percent and BB percent columns. Being an above-average strikeout artist is a good enough thing in itself. Being both that and an above-average command artist is a lovely double whammy.

And in Teheran‘s case, the numbers beneath those numbers could look worse:

Relative to most starters, Teheran got swinging strikes, threw pitches in the zone and got ahead in the count a lot in 2013. These are good things, as any pitcher who can pound the zone, get ahead and miss bats consistently has a recipe for success that will continue to serve him well.

Now, if there is one thing that worries me, it’s that Teheran was so much better at getting whiffs inside the strike zone. It’s hard to have faith in this trend continuing considering that his equals in the Z-Contact percent department were guys like Yu Darvish, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander.

Teheran has good stuff, but he doesn’t pack what those three guys pack. As such, what worked for him in 2013 might not work as well heading into the future. Rather than trust that he can do exactly what he did and succeed exactly as he did, he’d be wise to make some adjustments.

Fortunately, some adjustments that should be on his mind are easy to spot.

If there is to be more contact against Teheran, he’d do well to control what kind of contact it is. Since the best kind of contact a pitcher can hope for is ground balls, he clearly has to do something that helps his GB percentage go up from where it was in 2013. 

Teheran does have the tool for a job, as there is a sinker in his arsenal. Brooks Baseball says it was pretty good at picking up grounders with a GB/BIP of 57.1 in 2013, but Teheran only threw it about 17 percent of the time. That number can and should come up.

Another issue Teheran has is a platoon split against left-handed batters. They knocked him around to the tune of an .823 OPS in 2013. One issue is that Brooks Baseball says he only threw his changeup 8.4 percent of the time against lefty hitters, who hit .364 against it with a .227 ISO. 

Teheran, of course, had a highly regarded changeup once upon a time—Baseball America had it as the best in Atlanta’s system as recently as 2012. He’s since phased it out, but his performance against lefties in 2013 should convince him not to give up on it just yet. If only just for them, it’s a pitch he needs.

What exactly are we saying here? Simply that Teheran is an imperfect pitcher. He has good command and good stuff, both things that can take a pitcher far. But he probably overachieved on his stuff in 2013, and it would be better for him to make adjustments rather than trust the same old formula will keep working.

But if you’re a Braves fan, don’t sit there looking so glum. Just remember what team you root for. These are the Braves.

Indeed, this is an organization with a reputation that precedes it when it comes to molding young hurlers into top-notch pitchers. To this end, the Braves have already done some good work with Teheran. If the next steps are ironing out his more subtle weaknesses, they’ll surely see to it.

If Teheran does make tweaks, he can become an even better pitcher and be a mega-steal throughout the life of his new contract. If by chance he remains the pitcher he was in 2013, well, he’ll still be a steal. Even if he regresses, he’ll be far from an albatross. The only way his new deal is turning into a disaster is via injury. That’s obviously possible, but the reality that’s the only real disaster avenue for Teheran‘s deal is a good look.

The Braves have themselves some good young players these days. Perhaps Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel will also sign extensions, in which case the good times they’ve enjoyed in the last couple of seasons won’t be disappearing in a hurry.

Maybe. For now, it’s good enough the Braves have locked up a young cornerstone to wrap an offense around and a young cornerstone to wrap a rotation around. 

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For the Atlanta Braves, a core of young, ascending talent is a blessing. But it’s also a curse for long-term payroll planning.

When the organization re-signed first baseman Freddie Freeman to an eight-year, $135 million deal, the cornerstone of the future was secured. Yet, without talent around him, Freeman’s salary, production and prime will be wasted in Atlanta.

Luckily for the Braves, the supporting cast is already in tow. The quintet of Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, Mike Minor, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran form the core of a winning team around Freeman in 2014 and beyond.

Of course, if all five of Freeman’s gifted teammates follow his path to riches, difficult decisions will ensue within Atlanta’s front office. After the Freeman signing was announced, Braves general manager Frank Wren portrayed the biggest deal in franchise history as one step in a detailed plan, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com.

“That’s our expectation, or we wouldn’t have done [the Freeman deal],” Wren said. “If we felt this would put us in a bind to be competitive, we would not have done it. We feel like the revenues will allow our payroll to grow significantly.”

Much like in any business, revenue is the key to re-investment. For the Braves to keep its young core together, Wren needs to be correct. When the Braves announced a plan to move into a new stadium—less than 20 years after the completion of Turner Field—heads turned. Yet, when taking a look at Atlanta’s payroll figures over the last 10 years, a picture of a mid-market franchise emerges. 

During the announcement of the stadium project at the recent general managers’ meetings, Ron Starner, a writer for Site Selection Magazine in Peachtree Corners, Ga., envisioned Atlanta’s payroll increasing with the new park. Per Jerry Crasnick’s column for ESPN:

“The signal I take from this is that the Braves want to be a more competitive ballclub in Major League Baseball,” said Starner. “They’re never going to compete with the Yankees in terms of payroll, but they needed a stadium deal in a new location to maximize their revenues. The revenues were always going to be limited if they had chosen to remain at Turner Field.”

“Limited” may be putting it lightly.  

Over the last decade, Atlanta’s payroll hasn’t exceeded $103 million in any year. By 2017, when the Braves enter the new Cobb County, GA., stadium, Freddie Freeman is slated to make over $20 million. 

Unless something changes dramatically within Atlanta’s business model, the idea of keeping its six young stars together throughout their respective primes is a ridiculous notion.

When studying the burgeoning talents of Heyward, Kimbrel, Simmons, Minor and Teheran, it’s not hard to imagine a time where all five are National League All-Stars. The trajectory of young players isn’t often linear and injury or attrition could slow down their respective paths. Yet, the talent is there for consistent excellence.

For Frank Wren and Atlanta’s front office, that thought is exciting. It’s also potentially worrisome.

Heyward, signed to a two-year, $13.3 million deal, will hit free agency after the 2015 season. When he hits the open market, it’s not hard to imagine a team willing to offer him a deal in excess of $150 million. 

Why? Jacoby Ellsbury garnered a seven-year, $153 million deal from the New York Yankees this offseason. Part of the reason: A .350 career on-base percentage. Heading into the 2014 season, Heyward‘s career OBP—two years before free agency arrives—is .352.

Craig Kimbrel is on the path to becoming the richest closer in baseball history. When his arbitration case is decided, the 25-year-old closer may earn $9 million in his first year at the negotiating table. As of now, the arbitration record for a closer is the $12 million secured by Jonathan Papelbon in his third year of arbitration.

Kimbrel, two years ahead of that record pace, will likely surpass Papelbon’s four-year, $52 million free-agent contract. By 2017, estimating a yearly salary of $17 million for Kimbrel isn’t difficult. 

Since the 2012 All-Star break, Mike Minor has pitched 286 innings, posted a 2.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.00 SO/BB and 7.8 K/9. Those numbers put him in select company among starting pitchers in the sport, specifically when it comes to ERA. In 2013, only 13 starters pitched to an ERA lower. 

By 2017, Minor will be in his final year before free agency, barring a long-term extension. Finding compensating for future arbitration-eligible pitchers is difficult, but after earning $3.85 million as a super-two player this winter, future salaries could skyrocket for the 26-year-old lefty.

Last year, during his age-22 season, Julio Teheran posted a 3.78 SO/BB rate. That feat has been been matched by only five other pitchers in the history of the sport. Their names: Walter Johnson, Bert Blyleven, Mark Prior, Madison Bumgarner and Mat Latos.

If Teheran continues on this path and becomes a top-of-the rotation arm, the Braves would be wise to buyout his arbitration years and early free-agent trips. If Frank Wren looks at that list, Madison Bumgarner‘s contract extension in San Francisco will stand out. By 2017, Teheran will be in arbitration for the second time. Bumgarner‘s extension netted him $6.75 million at the same juncture.

Andrelton Simmons’ future earnings are hard to predict, but this much is clear: If his value progresses over the next few years, the slick-fielding shortstop could break the bank in arbitration by 2017. Last year, Simmons was worth 6.7 bWAR during his age-23 season. In the history of baseball, only three shortstops—Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughan and Joe Cronin—have exceeded that value at the same age. 

Three notable shortstops that ranked below Simmons: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Jose Reyes. 

When long-term contracts arrived for those young stars, Reyes’ six-year, $106 million deal was by far the least lucrative among the trio of up-the-middle stars.

As of this moment, the Braves have $37.9 million committed to their 2017 payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Clearly, the team will need to take more than just B.J. Upton and Freddie Freeman into the new stadium. In order to keep together an outstanding young core, at least another $60-80 million will need to be allotted just for the young pieces on the roster. 

When factoring in the needs for the rest of the roster—including 60 percent of a rotation and four everyday position players—the Braves likely need to move toward a $140 million payroll to keep the core happy and in Atlanta.

Heading into the 2014 season, the Braves are a good team with a bright future. Eventually, major decisions will have to come and the business model will be significantly altered.

If it’s not, stars like Craig Kimbrel and Jason Heyward won’t accompany Freddie Freeman into the next chapter of Braves baseball.

Agree? Disagree?

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Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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The Atlanta Braves had a difficult offseason. Star catcher Brian McCann and veteran pitcher Tim Hudson both left Atlanta and instead of replacing those players, the Braves stood pat.

Fans were restless.

But on Tuesday, the Braves and general manager Frank Wren reportedly reached multi-year contract agreements with first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Jason Heyward, per Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.  

Freeman’s contract is believed to be for eight years and $135 million. Heyward’s agreement was a two-year deal for $13.3 million.

The Braves were scheduled to have arbitration hearings for both players soon, but instead chose to lock up, arguably, the team’s two most valuable players. 

So instead of using the savings acquired from the departures of McCann and Hudson to chase overpriced free agents, Wren chose to invest in his young core. Atlanta is currently stuck with two bad long-term contracts in Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton, so the payroll-conscious Braves must be frugal with their finances.

Both Freeman and Heyward are 24 years old and viewed as rising stars around the league. Freeman, in his third full season in 2013, set career highs in average (.319) and RBI (109). He also hit 23 home runs. He plays Gold Glove quality defense at first base, too.

So why did Heyward only get a two-year deal? 

His lengthy injury history likely played a part in him just getting the two years. Heyward, with four full seasons under his belt, has had at least one stint on the disabled list in three of those years. 

The 6’5″, 240-pound Heyward moved to the leadoff spot last summer and thrived in the role. The Braves’ offense improved dramatically with Heyward atop the batting order. Manager Fredi Gonzalez moved Heyward to the top of the order on July 27 and he hit .325 from that point on, according to Eric Single of MLB.com. 

Heyward is an outstanding defensive player, too. 

Depending on how the next year or two goes, Wren could look to give Heyward a lengthy extension.

Now that Freeman and Heyward are in the fold for at the least the next two years, who should the Braves lock up next?

Many would think that closer Craig Kimbrel would be the logical choice. He, like Freeman and Heyward, is arbitration eligible. However, unlike those two, Kimbrel asked for $9 million in his first arbitration-eligible year. The Braves countered with $6.55 million.

Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball and it’s not even close. But can a team like Atlanta afford to give a relief pitcher $9 million or more per year? Highly unlikely. 

In fact, 2014 could be Kimbrel’s last year in a Braves’ uniform. Only teams with unlimited budgets such as the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox can afford the luxury of paying a closer that type of money. 

That leads us to shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Simmons isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2015, but is already a cornerstone player. The Braves could look to lock up the dynamic young shortstop and buy out his arbitration years much like they did with McCann in 2007. 

Young players are usually receptive to such deals as they can avoid the arbitration process and get more money up front.

Simmons is already the game’s top defensive shortstop. And at 6’2″, 170 pounds, is still developing as a hitter. He hit just .248 in 2013, his first full season, but did tally 17 home runs. He won the Gold Glove and finished 14th in the voting for National League MVP. 

The deals given to Heyward and Freeman should offer hope to Braves’ fans wanting more. Atlanta locked up two terrific young homegrown players and can now continue to build the team around them.

Wren must do everything possible to keep his young roster intact. Uggla and Upton are set to make a combined $28 million in 2014 alone, according to Rotoworld. If at least one of those two bounce back after a miserable 2013, the Braves should contend for another N.L. East title. 

*All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference 

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Freddie Freeman should feel special on this fine day in February, as the word is he’s the first $100 million player in Atlanta Braves history.

Good for him, but even better for the Braves. They just locked up a young, talented player who’s on the rise for money that’s really not all that absurd by today’s standards.

First of all, the news itself. As the Braves happily announced on Twitter:

According to MLB Network’s Peter Gammons and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, Freeman’s deal is worth $135 million. Per MLBTradeRumors.com’s transaction tracker, the largest contract in Braves history had been Chipper Jones’ $90 million deal from 2000. Freeman’s tops that by $45 million.

Freeman’s deal also puts him in the same high-rent district as first basemen like Adrian Gonzalez ($154 million) and Ryan Howard ($125 million). Knowing that, maybe you’re thinking the Braves got a little overzealous at the negotiating table. 

But nah. Not really. 

Here’s one thing: It sounds like a lot, but Freeman’s deal is worth only $16.875 million per year. In a day and age that just gave a guy who has never thrown a pitch in MLB over $20 million per year, less than $17 million per year for an established first baseman isn’t crazy. And if Freeman’s AAV isn’t crazy now, you can imagine how not crazy it’s going to be in eight years.

Here’s another thing: The 2014 season will only be Freeman’s age-24 season, and so far nobody’s said anything about an opt-out in his extension.

That means the Braves have locked up eight prime years, and it’s worth noting that five of them would have been free-agent years. Freeman was set to hit the market after his age-26 season in 2016, a year younger than Prince Fielder was when he hit the market. Freeman could have made a killing.

That’s provided he continues on the path he put himself on in 2013, of course, and that leads us to still another thing: He should.

Here are some numbers (via FanGraphs) to jar your memory of what Freeman did in 2013, complete with his 2011-2012 numbers for some helpful context:

The column on the far right paints a picture of a player taking the proverbial next step, and this player was worth an awful lot to the Braves. FanGraphs WAR-based value system put his value at $23.9 million, quite an improvement over the $11.6 million he had been worth in 2011 and 2012. Combined.

Obviously, if Freeman continues to be worth over $20 million on an annual basis, Atlanta’s roughly $17 million-per-year investment in him will be a steal. That’s a matter of him continuing to take advantage of the things that made his 2013 a success, and that’s absolutely possible.

As you can tell by the ISO figures, Freeman’s success in 2013 wasn’t a matter of his power increasing. Rather, it was a matter of his average and his on-base percentage increasing, and we can narrow down how this happened.

For one, Freeman’s OBP was helped by the fact that his BB% went from a solid 10.3 in 2012 to an even more solid 10.5 in 2013. He was able to have a good batting eye in 2012 despite battling bad vision, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that he had en even better batting eye in 2013 after his vision issues were taken care of.

As for Freeman’s batting average, it was helped by two things. One was a modest decrease in strikeouts, as his K% went from 21.6 in 2011-2012 to 19.2. Fewer strikeouts, obviously, means more balls in play.

And regarding those balls in play, this happened:

• Freeman’s 2011-2012 BABIP: .317
• Freeman’s 2013 BABIP: .371

In other words, Freeman enjoyed faaaaarrrrrr more good fortune on batted balls in 2013 than he had been. This is especially true when you compare 2013 to 2012, a year in which his BABIP was just .295.

It’s tempting to chalk Freeman’s big 2013 season up to good luck, but it actually makes more sense to chalk what happened in 2012 up to bad luck. One thing that he did in both 2012 and 2013 was hit line drives at an impressive rate, but he just didn’t have as many fall in 2012:

The league BABIP on line drives in 2012 was .682. Freeman was under that. In 2013, he was safely over the league’s .683 mark.

And it wasn’t just luck at work there. Freeman’s short, quick stroke is perfect for line drives, and he put it to use in 2013 by scalding every type of pitch. Here’s some telling data from Brooks Baseball:

If Freeman was hitting only hard stuff, breaking stuff or offspeed stuff hard, pitchers would have an invitation to make an easy adjustment. But since he was crushing everything, well, they’ll just have to tread carefully when he’s at the plate.

Adding to the difficulty of containing Freeman is something that Grantland’s Jonah Keri noticed:

While a slow-footed first baseman might seem like an ideal candidate for defensive shifts, which tend to suppress batting average on balls in play, it turns out they’re not necessarily a great idea against Freeman. In 2013, he lashed 33 percent of his hits on pitches on the outer half of the plate to the opposite field. That’s not quite Tony Gwynnesque, but it’s still better than the league average of 30.5 percent.

So regarding Freeman’s bat, it’s like this: As nice as it would be to see him transform into a 40-homer monster, his offensive game is in a good place. His abilities to draw walks and hit ropes make him a candidate to be a .300/.390 hitter on an annual basis. And as long as he’s doing that, he doesn’t need to be anything more than the 20-25 home run guy he is now to be a star hitter.

Looking past Freeman’s bat, we should also acknowledge that his defense is getting better. If we narrow it down to a few select stats:

Freeman was a passable defensive first baseman in 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, he showed off more range, made more scoops around the bag, and was generally better than your average first baseman in the eyes of both UZR and DRS.

Just like he did offensively, Freeman took the next step defensively. Assuming he continues to make progress, he could soon find himself among the game’s elite defensive first basemen. Combine that with what he’ll do at the plate, and it’s more than a fair bet that he has plenty more high-WAR seasons in him.

Is it just one good year we’re drawing conclusions from? Sure, but I’d be careful about using that as an argument against Freeman’s new deal. This, after all, isn’t a case of some random, low-ceiling scrub breaking out.

No, this is a case of a former top prospect who was already established as a good, solid player becoming a star-caliber player. And since he hasn’t even embarked on his age-24 season yet, the Braves are safe in figuring that Freeman’s best days have only just begun. They’ve made him an expensive player, but they’ve done so before he started getting too expensive.

The Braves were going to give out their first $100 million contract eventually. In Freeman here and now, they’ve picked a good player to give it to and a good time to give it to him.

Note: All stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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In November 2012, we witnessed the Atlanta Braves do something they have shied away from for a while. They signed outfielder B.J. Upton to a five-year deal worth $75.25 million. The sum of the deal put Upton in special company. He joined Manny Ramirez and Carlos Beltran as the only outfielders 28 years old and younger to sign their name to a deal worth $75 million or more on Opening Day.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, B.J. Upton would fall flat on his face with a .184 batting average and -0.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 126 games.

The B.J. Upton signing could have ramifications for the Braves as they inch closer to the impending free agency of Justin Upton, Kris Medlen, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel and Brandon Beachy. 

The aforementioned names make up the bulk of the World Series-contending Braves core.

National League Most Valuable Player talk focused on Justin Upton for the first couple months of 2013. While he would slow down after an electrifying start in Atlanta, the younger half of the brothers Upton will turn 27 in August. He is also set to enter free agency following two more seasons with the Braves.

Medlen has won 25 games over the span of the last two seasons. A reliable arm in the rotation, Medlen isn’t known for striking out batters. Similar to a poor man’s Greg Maddux, he works the plate and gets batters out via their contact. The right-handed pitcher will be 28 for the 2014 season and, like Justin Upton, a free agent in 2016.

Another star in Atlanta is set to enter free agency in 2016. Outfielder Jason Heyward will turn 25 in August. While hype has exacerbated his production, Heyward has become one of the best sluggers in the NL. It appears that he won’t necessarily hit for average but after freak injuries derailed his 2013 season, one positive is Heyward did improve on his walk and strikeout rates.

Set to be 25 years old in September, first baseman Freddie Freeman surged to being considered among the best power hitters in all of Major League Baseball. He has hit 46 home runs over the course of the last two seasons while boosting his average to .319 a year ago. Freeman leads the list of Braves set to hit free agency after the next three seasons.

Over the last three seasons, no closer has been as dynamic as Craig Kimbrel. During the same span, his fastball velocity has only increased from 96.2 to 96.9. He has averaged 46 saves annually since getting the nod as Atlanta’s closer in 2011. Due to turn 26 in May, one can see why it’s imperative for the Braves to lock up Kimbrel prior to his free agency year of 2017.

The last of the bunch, Brandon Beachy, is a major question mark. From June 2012 through July 2013, Beachy worked in the training facility while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The righty has plenty of potential but has yet to pitch more than 81 innings in a single MLB season. Akin to Freeman and Kimbrel, Beachy’s arbitration eligibility ends after 2016.

According to FanGraphs, the aforementioned six players combined for a 16.3 WAR. It isn’t unreasonable to suggest an increase in their cumulative WAR moving forward either. After all, it seems as if each player is entering his prime.

The situation isn’t all bad for Atlanta. Twenty-nine other MLB clubs would love to be in the conundrum Atlanta currently is in. Their scouting and development system has done one of the better jobs in baseball over the course of the last six or seven years. However, the problem Atlanta faces is keeping this core intact.

B.J. Upton’s deal isn’t likely to keep the Braves apprehensive from committing long-term to each of these aforesaid players. After all, the horrid decline of second baseman Dan Uggla and his $13 million annual contract didn’t keep the Braves from throwing bags of money at the older Upton.

The problem for Atlanta will be finding enough loot to keep this core intact.

Free agency in 2016 and 2017 may appear light years away. It really isn’t though. Organizations are more aggressive in securing their keystone players much earlier in their pre-arbitration and arbitration years.

For example, the Chicago Cubs signed first baseman Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year, $41 million contract extension last May. Compared to Freeman, Rizzo has less MLB service time and has yet to produce on a level parallel to the Braves first baseman. Yet, his long-term outlook with Chicago is guaranteed. Additionally, the Cubs saved money compared to what they would have had to spend had they played the waiting game. The Cubs are apparently ahead of the curve in understanding why committing to a long-term contract as soon as possible is beneficial to the team.

It would behoove Atlanta to buy out the remaining arbitration years for the players listed. On top of that, they should pay them accordingly for their first two to three seasons of free agency. This would come at a discount for Atlanta and secure team control over their core as they push to make multiple World Series runs through 2018. 

The longer the Braves remain stuck in neutral, the less incentive Jason Heyward and Co. will have to sign long-term deals as they creep closer to free agency. While some of the players could decide to do so, it is unlikely the entire core remains intact. 

It is feasible that Justin Upton, Heyward and Freeman would command contracts worth more than $100 million when they hit free agency. However, if the Braves stop sitting on their hands, they would likely be able to retain each of them for nearly half to three quarters of that sum. Beachy is in an awkward position to say the least. However, Medlen and Kimbrel could both see deals worth at least $50 million should they hit free agency.

Atlanta would do itself a favor by locking these players up before they get another year closer to free agency. By not doing so, they are playing with fire. After all, organizations such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees will price them out of the market on players they developed.

UPDATE: Jason Heyward and Atlanta Braves reach two-year deal

Per ESPN at 11:18 EST, the Atlanta Braves and Jason Heyward agreed to a two-year deal. This deal will buy out Heyward’s remaining years of arbitration, in effect making him a free agent in 2016. While terms of the new deal have not been disclosed yet, it is a discouraging sign that the Braves are willing to contend with other teams for the right to sign Heyward in two seasons. They may end up pricing themselves out of the market for the outfielder.

All statistics and contract information provided courtesy of FanGraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com and Spotrac.com.

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