Kuzul

With their 4-3 win over the Miami Marlins on Tuesday (Sept. 25), the Atlanta Braves clinched a wild-card playoff spot in the NL. 

The Braves have a shot at catching the Washington Nationals for the NL East title with a 4.5-game deficit, but with eight games remaining in the regular season, that’s not likely to happen.

Atlanta thus awaits the second NL Wild Card and will face that team in a one-game playoff on Oct. 5. It appears that team will be the St. Louis Cardinals, though the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers are 3.5 games behind and still have a shot. 

The lineup and rotation that Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has employed during the season’s second half has worked wonderfully. Atlanta is 15-7 thus far through September, so the skipper probably isn’t going to mess with what’s clearly working well. 

Having said that, here’s how the Braves roster will probably line up once the postseason begins. 

One note: Other postseason roster prediction articles that you’ll see on B/R also include a “Position Battles” slide. I didn’t write one for the Braves because I don’t feel there really is a position battle.

All eight spots on the field are spoken for, and the competitions that might exist are for bench spots, which were mentioned in those particular slides. 

All statistics cited were current before play began on Sept. 25.

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The 2012 Atlanta Braves have done an excellent job of quieting fans’ fears of a repeat collapse in September.  They are closing in on a playoff spot and hope to do damage in October.  An improved offense, a stabilized rotation, and a lights-out bullpen have helped them erase the memory of a dismal finish to 2011.

The season has been full of ups and downs, so before we see the Braves enjoy the success of a playoff spot, let’s take a look at some of the disappointments and hurdles they have faced.

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What I am about to write may not be very popular. In fact, I’m sure it won’t be.

Six weeks ago, I wouldn’t have believed I would be advocating this. It’s a reality that has been tough to come to grips with, but it’s a reality that the Braves must face so they can move forward.

There is absolutely no way Tommy Hanson can be allowed to be a part of the postseason starting rotation.

When Hanson came up as a rookie, it seemed that the sky was the limit for him—he possessed a strong fastball, a killer slider and a promising curveball that projected him as a definite No. 2 starter with a ceiling of staff ace.

The naked truth though is that the Tommy Hanson of 2012 is simply not the same Tommy Hanson that was heralded as the next Atlanta Braves ace. Injuries and mechanics have ravaged his right arm, his potential and perhaps his future.

Can he ever become the pitcher he was supposed to be? I hope so, but everything is trending down for Hanson. He has lost a lot of velocity—three miles an hour on his fastball and curveball, two miles an hour on his change-up and four miles an hour on his slider.

The spin on his slider is loose, his command is lacking and the advanced metrics doesn’t help him out any—his 4.65 FIP and 1.44 WHIP suggest that he is pitching worse than his 4.46 ERA lets on. 

Unfortunately, my disposition towards Tommy Hanson’s abilities has decayed to the point that I no longer expect anything but misfortune when he takes the hill. And on September 21, I reached my breaking point.

I watched Hanson employ his weakened fastball, loosened slider and spotty command against the Philadelphia Phillies and I found myself cringing every time he threw a pitch over the heart of the plate. Through just five-and-a-third innings, Hanson gave up three walks, four hits, three home runs and five earned runs. 

I wish I could tell you of my sunny disposition towards Hanson’s future starts, especially those in the postseason, but from where I stand, I just don’t see it. I don’t believe you need velocity to succeed; Jered Weaver, Tim Hudson and even Kris Medlen have shown us this much. However, they have two things that Hanson doesn’t, great command and an out pitch—Weaver has a great slider, Hudson uses a series of sinking fastballs and Medlen possesses a devastating change-up.

Could it be that the once “Golden Boy” of the pitching staff would be detrimental to the Braves World Series hopes if employed as a starter? Considering the fact that Hanson is the worst-performing 2012 Braves starter, it very well could be.

Take this into account: due to increased rest in the playoffs, postseason rotations typically consist of four men. Assuming Atlanta rolls with its best four starters, who would toe the October rubber?

Tim Hudson and Kris Medlen are absolute locks, there is no argument here.

Since July 5, Mike Minor has pitched 81.1 innings and allowed 58 hits and just 17 walks to pair with his 2.32 ERA and .203 opponent average. He’s not only been on a tear, he’s turned a major corner. He’s in if the Braves have any sense.

Paul Maholm has had two hiccups in September, but even with those 13 runs in 6.1 innings, he’s pitched to the tune of a 3.39 ERA since April 21. He bounced back against Miami on September 18 though, pitching nearly seven innings of four-hit, one-walk ball. He makes for a very nice back-end starter.

Not only does Tommy Hanson not hold any water in the comparisons against the other men in the Braves rotation, he also wouldn’t be able to stand up to comparisons with a healthy Ben Sheets. If Sheets is back and ready to go for the playoffs, he could conceivably start if needed to—his experience and veteran guile would be more valuable than Hanson’s propensity to get hit hard.

I’m not a pessimist. I hope Tommy Hanson can get back to where he was in 2010.

But there’s no way I’m starting him in the postseason.

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It’s become somewhat of an expectation for Braves Country that good things happen when Kris Medlen takes the mound.

And with an ERA of 0.86 and 66 strikeouts in 62.2 innings pitched since joining the starting rotation, Medlen has certainly made many good things happen for the Braves. In fact, Atlanta has won each of the last 20 games that Medlen has started, a feat last replicated by Roger Clemens in 2001after donning the Yankee pinstripes.   

It should come as no surprise then, that when Medlen calmly strode to the mound against the Nationals, who have taken 10 of 15 games against the Braves this year, he would set the tone of the series in a commanding fashion. 

Medlen took one look at Jayson Werth digging in on Friday night and decided that he didn’t care about Washington’s 8.5-game stranglehold on the division, or even that the Braves were just swept by the red-hot Brewers—so he struck him out.

Then he struck out 12 more Nationals over the course of seven innings; the lone blemish on his night a solo-homer to Bryce Harper, leaving the bullpen to tend to the one-one deadlock.

Craig Kimbrel was brought in to slam the door on the Nationals’ hopes of pushing ahead in the ninth inning and almost tied a record, striking out Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, and Danny Espinosa on three, three, and four pitches, respectively.

In the home half of the ninth inning, Andrelton Simmons provided the offensive lift that the Braves had been missing for the past few months by igniting a rally with an infield single and advancing to third on a Michael Bourn flare to right.  

With runners at the corners and one out, Tyler Pastornicky rolled over a Sean Burnett sinker, and Ian Desmond came up with the grounder cleanly. However, Desmond was unable to make a good throw to home, the error allowing the winning run in Simmons to score.

In this sequence is a biting irony in how the seemingly superior shortstop (Desmond) was outplayed both offensively and defensively by his rookie counterpart (Simmons), who came up big for the Braves when a big moment was needed the most.

It’s just one game, but like Chipper Jones’ walk-off against the Phillies earlier this month, this game could mean a lot to the Braves when the postseason rolls around. In just nine innings, many statements were made by the Braves.

Kris Medlen let Washington know that he can match any pitcher the Nationals throw at him. Craig Kimbrel asserted that he is utterly dominant and completely untouchable: a true ninth-inning stopper. Eric O’Flaherty proved to not be impressed by Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, and Ryan Zimmerman, handling the top of the order in the eighth inning in just 12 pitches.

Martin Prado showed that he will eat Nationals pitching alive, ripping off three hits in his four at bats. Andrelton Simmons reminded the Nationals that with him in the lineup, the Braves play invigorated and the lineup has no holes.

Finally, with a ground-out, hard-fought, well-earned walk-off win, the Braves sent a very clear message to the Nationals on Friday night: “We are not going away. We’ll see you in October.”

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Heading into the bottom of the ninth inning against the Phillies on September 2, dreary skies clouded the spirits of Braves Country.

Down 7-3, Atlanta was in danger of extending its recent skid (in which the club dropped 10 of 14 games) by virtue of getting swept by Philadelphia. However, the Braves would mount a rally and found themselves within two runs with two on and two outs and Chipper Jones strutting to the plate.

What happened next is something I believe will be looked back on as perhaps the turning point in Atlanta’s 2012 season.  

With the count 1-1, Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon tried to sneak a 95 mile an hour four-seamer on the outside corner past Chipper, probably to set him up for a devastating slider. Unfortunately for Papelbon, he missed his spot, and the four-seamer ended up right over the plate.

And a four-seamer over the heart of the plate is not something that Chipper misses often.

So he hit it 443 feet into the night, landing somewhere in the right-center bleachers of Turner Field.

With one swing, the weight of the last 15 games had evaporated. A boyish smile was plastered on Chipper’s face as he rounded the bases, while youthful jubilation swept across the rest of the Braves roster; their Christmas morning had arrived nearly five months early.

During the collapse of 2011, the Braves didn’t have moments like this. There was no time for celebration. There weren’t any superheroes to come and save Atlanta’s season.  

In 2012, though, things seem to be different. Kris Medlen, of all people, has picked the Braves rotation up and put it on his back, pitching simply incredibly over the last month. Jones, though, might have given the Braves a season-altering swing on September 2. Since he stepped to the plate against Papelbon on Sunday night, Atlanta has won five of six.  

Unlike many of the baseball writers out there, I don’t believe all 162 games were created equal.  While games in April are undeniably important, September affairs have a certain gravitas that weights them a little more.  

Games like this can inspire a club, especially when they come at opportune times.  When the book on the 2012 season has been written and completed, Chipper’s “shot heard ’round the world” will prove to be the ultimate turning point in Atlanta’s season.

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Prior to blowing out his elbow in 2010, Kris Medlen was 5-0 as a starter. Since his return to the starting rotation this year, Medlen is 6-0 in seven starts. An 11-0 record over the last two seasons as a starter is pretty impressive. But, just how impressive is Kris Medlen?

Sporting his flat-billed Braves cap, the “California Wonder Kid” has quickly asserted himself as the staff ace since his return to the rotation on July 31st. All Medlen has done as a starter is win. In his 25 starts over his career, he is 12-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 152 innings pitched.

What makes Medlen so successful? He doesn’t have the arm strength of Stephen Strasburg. His curveball is not as vicious as Clayton Kershaw’s. Johnny Cueto’s windup, where he turns his back to the hitter before uncoiling and coming to the plate, is much more complicated and deceiving to the hitter than that of the fluid and simple Medlen wind-up. What is it that makes this 26-year-old so effective as a starter?

Simply put, Medlen is a gamer. He doesn’t rely on overpowering stuff, but instead, mixes his pitches, stays ahead in the count and keeps the ball in the yard.

Medlen limits the number of free passes by pounding the strike zone. Since returning to the starting rotation, Medlen has thrown 456 of his 642 pitches for strikes—an impressive 71percent. For the purposes of comparison, Kershaw has thrown 64.5 percent of his pitches for strikes this year, while Felix Hernandez has a solid 65 percent strike rate.

Furthermore, of the 36 hits Medlen has given up over his 49.2 innings pitched as a starter this season, he has given up only one home run, three doubles and zero triples. That means 32 of the 36 hits he has given up have been singles.

Medlen has limited the damage against him by keeping the batters off balance and in the yard. If you factor in that he has only walked five batters during that same span, Medlen’s recipe for success is a tasty one. 

Can Medlen pitch a full season as a starter with a 0.54 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 10.00 SO/BB? Probably not. If Medlen were to do that, he would have the single-best season as a pitcher in baseball history. So while he has been lights out since returning to the starting rotation, it is safe to assume that he will have some sort of statistical regression going forward—and that’s OK.

In the 23 starts following his rocky first two starts of his career, Medlen has posted a 2.69 ERA over 143.2 innings pitched. Because he has done so well over a span of years, instead of just a single season, it appears the Braves’ righty is the real deal. 

The Braves were just as knowledgeable of Medlen’s success as a starter, so what took the Braves so long in putting Medlen back in the starting rotation?

Apparently, it was a similar situation that the Nationals are going through with Strasburg—an innings limitation (via Yahoo! Sports). In the postgame wrap-up of Medlen’s most recent start against the Rockies, AP sports writer Charles Odum quotes manager Freddi Gonzalez discussing the innings cap for Medlen as saying, “it was basically the number that Strasburg is facing right now, 160 to 170, because they both were coming off the Tommy John surgery.” 

If Gonzalez ever deserved praise for how he manages the Braves, how he has handled the situation with Medlen is definitely one of them. While the Nationals will have their best pitcher on the sidelines during the playoffs, the Braves will have their new staff ace on the mound.

Just because Medlen won’t be able to pitch at a sub-1 ERA as a starter for a full season doesn’t mean that he isn’t on the verge of establishing himself as one of the games best starting pitchers. He was pitching very effectively in his early 20s and won’t turn 28 until the end of the 2013 season.

The Braves’ pitching future looks bright now that Medlen has returned to his rightful spot as a starter. With the return of Beachy in 2013 and the further improvement of Mike Minor, the Braves have much to look forward to for years to come. 

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On August 31, 2012, the Atlanta Braves made a deadline deal that rounded out the club in a very significant way: they acquired Jeff Baker.

Hold on, hold on.  Hear me out.  I’m actually being completely serious here.

The Atlanta Braves do not hit left-handed pitchers—this is a fact of life.  The lineup stacked with four left-handed bats (and a switch-hitter whose power comes almost exclusively from the right side) has hit .247 with a .317 OBP and a .382 SLG against lefties in 2012.  

Dan Uggla, one of the right-handed bats responsible for hitting lefties well, has posted a .239 career average against southpaws, a ways south of his .258 career average against righties.

So consider this: Atlanta just added an infielder (who primarily plays second base) with a career slash line of .298/.346/.505/.851 against lefties.  

Now the move becomes more interesting, doesn’t it?

Before the Baker deal, the Braves boasted the best bench in baseball.  Amongst Atlanta’s reserves were a veteran catcher capable of reaching 20 home runs, a third baseman with ridiculous power (no really—the power Juan Francisco possesses is quite silly), and a gutsy fourth outfielder with plenty of hustle who may just be the best pinch-hitter in the game.

Atlanta then decided to bolster its left-handed hitting supply by signing first baseman Lyle Overbay, who got on base at nearly a .370 clip in 110 plate appearances with Arizona earlier this season.  A professional hitter, Overbay will compete with Eric Hinske, who has been completely ineffective in 2012, for playing time.  

And if Hinske continues playing like he has this season, Overbay and his career .354 OBP will win out.

With the left-handed bench bat shored up, the Braves then turned to their infield, and found that Tyler Pastornicky’s .289 OBP was simply not good enough to continue getting at-bats.  Enter: Jeff Baker, the veteran infielder who can play both second base and first, and who is OPSing .851 against lefties on his career.

Suddenly, Atlanta has five viable bench options.  Baker even has the potential to start at second against southpaws if he can live up to his career averages.

Far from a glamorous move, Atlanta has solidified its bench and strengthened one of its biggest weaknesses by acquiring Jeff Baker.

That’s probably a sentence you never expected to read.

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Atlanta pitcher Kris Medlen, who threw a shutout as my recent streaming pitcher option, has been lights out since joining the Braves’ rotation. Is he for real?

It is truly hard to argue with the results. Since joining the rotation Kris is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings, including the aforementioned shutout against the San Diego Padres.

On the season he is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 80.0 innings. Whether he is starting or relieving he has been spot on, aside from a bumpy May.

It doesn’t matter if Medlen is pitching at home or on the road. He is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .234 batting average against at Turner Field. He has been even more difficult to hit on the road, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and a .212 BAA.

His day numbers (2.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) aren’t as nasty, but they are still solid. Meanwhile, at night he is nearly untouchable (1.66, 0.94).

He had a 1.42 ERA in April, a 2.79 mark in June, a 0.84 mark in July and has a 0.87 ERA so far in August. His lone hiccup came in May when he posted a 5.17 ERA, but he quickly righted the ship.

Medlen is owned in about thirty-five percent of Yahoo! and about sixty percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. He has SP and RP eligibility, which makes him even more valuable to fantasy owners.

As long as he remains in the rotation, he is certainly worth riding the hot hand. His next start is Wednesday against the Nationals.

Your thoughts?

Also check out:

• Is Now the Time to Buy Tommy Milone?
• Can Carlos Lee be a Fantasy Factor?
• Should You Be Looking At Hisashi Iwakuma?
• Is Lorenzo Cain Able?

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For the next two weeks, the Atlanta Braves will be using a six-man rotation.

According to a report by the Associated Press, Braves manager Freddi Gonzalez said the team will move to a six-man rotation for the next two weeks. After two weeks, Gonzalez said he will pick the best five starters to go the rest of the season.

Gonzalez said he is moving to the six-man rotation “for the concerns of taking care of some of the guys.”

“We need to be able to go into September with all of the cylinders hitting and everybody healthy,” Gonzalez said. “This is one way to keep those guys healthy.”

With that said, here are five reasons why a six-man rotation is good for the team.

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When the Atlanta Braves signed Ben Sheets earlier this season, I didn’t think much of it.

In truth, I saw Sheets as a once-dominant but injury-prone 34-year-old pitcher, four years removed from being his vintage self.  Nothing more, nothing less.

On top of that, due to Tommy John surgery, Sheets hadn’t even thrown an inning of professional baseball since 2010.  Before that, he hadn’t pitched since 2008.  

So pardon me if I didn’t cheer in jubilation when Sheets began his comeback trail with the Mississippi Braves on July 4.  He was more of a footnote to me than anything, as I still had notions that Atlanta would make a move for Zack Greinke or Ryan Dempster.  

Five weeks later, Sheets is anything but a footnote.  

He only threw 10.2 innings in his two minor league starts, but did so with a 1.89 FIP and 10 strikeouts against a single walk.  

Atlanta rushed him up to the majors on July 15 to plug a hole in the rotation, and Sheets responded with a six-inning, five-strikeout, two-hit, one-walk effort, in which no runs were surrendered.

And the rest, they say, is history.

Through five starts in an Atlanta Braves uniform, Sheets has tossed 32 innings, recording a 4-1 record while posting a 1.41 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

He is not without his critics though, as they point to his 87.8 percent strand rate as an indication of fortunate bounces, and his average fastball velocity of 90.6 as a declining skill.

I would be naïve to suggest that Sheets is likely to maintain his 1.41 ERA, or to even ponder the possibility of a return to his 2004 form, which saw him post a WAR of 8.0, an ERA of 2.70, a K/9 rate of 10.03 and a BB/9 rate of 1.22.  Either instance would make me worthy of being beaten with a stick and chased out of the Writer Community here at Bleacher Report.

But still I wonder, just how good will Ben Sheets be the rest of the year?

I’m going to trash the velocity aspect altogether.  Sheets’ average fastball velocity this year has been 90.6, and when he’s needed to, he’s been able to dig down deep and come up with 93.

That’s not the 95-mile an hour Ben Sheets fastball of old, but velocity isn’t necessarily indicative of success.  Jered Weaver, arguably the American League Cy Young winner at this point, throws an 88.3 mile an hour fastball.

The advanced metrics don’t even suggest a steep decline in Sheets’ future performance. Sheets’ .309 BABIP against is actually .14 higher than his career norm, and his FIP, a stat that suggests what his ERA should be—independent of the abilities of the fielders behind him—is 2.80.  If Sheets were to have logged enough innings with his 2.80 FIP maintained, he would rank third in baseball in FIP, behind Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg.

I’m not even sure a comparison of this version of Ben Sheets to vintage Ben Sheets is even fair anymore, because he has literally reinvented himself.  He’s become an entirely different pitcher.

With lesser velocity, he no longer overthrows, and his command has benefited greatly.  Sheets’ BB/9 (1.97) is the best it’s been since 2005.  His strikeout rate has declined to about 6.5 K/9, but he’s also not allowing home runs (.28 HR/9).

And get this: in five starts and 32 innings pitched, Sheets has a WAR of .9.  “Big deal,” you may say.  But if you extrapolated that over 30 starts (roughly 192 innings), his current performance would garner him 5.4 WAR, which would have been 12th in baseball last year, ahead of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum.

Here’s my favorite part: he now throws a pretty dominant change-up to keep the hitters guessing.  His curveball (or his “dragon snapper,” as ESPN Fantasy Analyst Matthew Berry refers to it) is still as sharp as ever, and he’s still throwing it as much as he ever has (career usage rate: 28.5 percent, 2012 usage rate: 28.6 percent).  In other words, by using his fastball roughly 12 percent less than his career average (understandable since he no longer throws 95), he has been able to increase his change-up usage rate to 23.2 percent, as opposed to 7.8 percent in 2008.   

He throws his fastball with impeccable command, he teases hitters with his improved change-up and then flashes his vintage curveball to remind everyone of the pitcher he used to be—and the pitcher he is still capable of being: a crafty frontline starter with veteran gall, brilliant command and one heck of a curveball.

Ben Sheets is back.  Back from a surgery he didn’t think he could come back from, back to a level no one thought he could reach again.

And in a season chock full of the tremendous stories of Mike Trout, R.A. Dickey and the Pittsburgh Pirates, the comeback trail of one Ben Sheets may top them all.

Ben Sheets is helping rewrite the 2012 MLB season.  But in his version, he’s much more than a footnote. 

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