Kuzul

For those who cannot survive on Top 40 rankings alone, here is a compilation of the next 40 outfielders to target in mixed- and league-specific drafts.

41. Carlos Lee, Astros
Skinny: Lee posted better numbers in hits, triples, RBI, steals, walks and batting average last year, compared to 2010. The biggest omission of the Top 40 outfielders.

42. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
Skinny: Coming off a sluggish campaign, Ethier is a good bet for modest across-the-board improvements in 2012. Targets: 17 HRs, 72 RBI, 69 runs, 1 steal and .292 average.

43. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
Skinny: This pedestrian ranking is based on the assumption Francoeur won’t collect 601 at-bats again, while vying for space in the Royals’ crowded outfield.

44. Nick Swisher, Yankees
Skinny: Fantasy owners will appreciate Swisher’s latest comfort zone in the draft’s latter rounds. Targets: 22 HRs, 86 RBIs, 77 runs, .257 average.

45. Logan Morrison, Marlins
Skinny: Better plate discipline could easily vault the 24-year-old Morrison into the Top 40, sooner than later. Targets: 24 HRs, 75 RBI, 59 runs, 4 steals, .268 average.

46. Josh Willingham, Twins
Skinny: An underrated two-category force, look for Willingham to take a slight dip in HRs and RBIs…but raise his average to approximately.265.

47. Carlos Quentin, Padres
Skinny: Quentin may never replicate his MVP-caliber season from 2008 (36/100/.288), but he’s still a reasonable play for 25 HRs, 82 RBI and .261 average.

48. Austin Jackson, Tigers
Skinny: It’s rare to find a two-category machine at this point in the countdown. Assuming he bats leadoff for most of 2012, A-Jax could tally 100 runs and 30 steals.

49. Martin Prado, Braves
Skinny: Prado is a respectable four-category contributor to those who have forgotten the 15-HR/100-runs/.300 expectations of last March.

50. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
Skinny: The planets may be aligned for Boesch to finally enjoy a season of relatively good health and fruitful fantasy numbers: Targets: 17 HRs, 70 RBI, 82 runs, 6 steals, .287 average.

51. Matt Joyce, Rays
Skinny: A productive player with some inescapable red flags from last year: two months of sub-.200 hitting…and three months of two homers or less.

52. Peter Bourjos, Angels
Skinny: Bourjos should be a four-category factor this year (excluding RBI)…assuming he logs 500 at-bats for the Angels.

53. Angel Pagan, Giants
Skinny: Like Bourjos, Pagan should be a four-category success in roto and head-to-head leagues, and bonus…30 steals is now the baseline of reasonable expectations.

54. Alex Rios, White Sox
Skinny: Rios may not register stats worthy of the 54th outfielder. But his age (31) and intriguing physical tools will nonetheless prompt fantasy GMs to take a later-round flier on the former star.

55. Brandon Belt, Giants
Skinny: Forget last year’s pedestrian stats (9 HRs, 18 RBI, 21 runs, .225 BA). Belt has the tools and superb minor-league track record to be a four-category factor in his second season.

56. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays
Skinny: It’s time for Rasmus to take a big leap in his development, while avoiding the wild highs and lows of seasons past. Targets: 22 HRs, 67 RBI, 84 runs, 9 steals, .274 average.

57. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
Skinny: A two-category whirlwind (runs, steals) who needs to prove last year’s .296 BA wasn’t a fluke.

58. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
Skinny: A potential National League clone of Austin Jackson, Fowler might approach 90 runs and 25-30 steals for the hot-and-cold Rockies.

59. Mitch Moreland, Rangers
Skinny: Moreland’s hearty supporters might find fault with this conservative ranking. But for 2012, Moreland’s upside likely doesn’t extend past 21 HRs and 67 RBI.

60. Jason Kubel, Diamondbacks
Skinny: With 140 games and 500 at-bats, Kubel can recapture his 20-HR mojo from 2008-10. But that may be a tall order, given the Diamondbacks’ packed outfield and absence of a DH during National League play.

61. Lucas Duda, Mets
Skinny: Duda has the physical tools to be a four-category contributor in his age-26 season. Targets: 16 HRs, 58 RBI, 59 runs, .284 average.

62. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
Skinny: Soriano makes for a productive fifth or sixth outfielder in 12-team leagues, especially for owners in need of 20-plus homers and 80 RBI.

63. J.D. Martinez, Astros
Skinny: A .342 hitter in the minors, Martinez has the skill set to be a four-category factor in his second MLB season. This leap-of-faith ranking will look even better in May.

64. Michael Brantley, Indians
Skinny: Brantley posted across-the-board gains in his second MLB season (7 HRs, 46 RBI, 63 runs, 13 steals, .266 average). Expect another season of modest improvement.

65. Vernon Wells, Angels
Skinny: With this outfield ranking, fantasy owners probably wouldn’t mind a repeat of Wells’ 2011 numbers (25 HRs, 66 RBI, 60 runs, 9 steals)—minus the deflating .218 average.

66. Delmon Young, Tigers
Skinny: Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a homer every five games from Young—his admirable pace with the Tigers last season. But he’s still a respectable four-category contributor.

67. Ben Revere, Twins
Skinny: Revere will be a high late-round priority for owners needing cheap speed, and the fleet-footed Twin is a lock for 42-45 steals in 2012.

68. Juan Pierre, Phillies
Skinny: The 34 year old may be in the twilight of his career, but he’s still a threat for 40 steals and 80 runs when given adequate playing time. An ideal late-round flier.

69. Jason Bay, Mets
Skinny: Bay’s numbers have obviously dipped since that coup de grace season of 2009 with Boston (36 HRs, 119 RBI, 103 runs). But as a healthy Met, he’s still a good play for 16 HRs, 70 RBI and 11 steals.

70. Ryan Raburn, Tigers
Skinny: Opportunity knocks for the OF-eligible Rayburn, who has a clear shot at winning the Tigers’ job at second base and posting numbers of 15 HRs, 58 RBI, 61 runs and .282 average.

71. Jose Tabata, Pirates
Skinny: The next five players in this countdown could all make big jumps in 2012. Tabata is a reasonable candidate for 12 HRs, 34 steals and .279 average.

72. Eric Thames, Blue Jays
Skinny: Thames has down-the-road power potential of 25 HRs and 90 RBI. He could be a last-round gem for upside-loving owners.

73. Jerry Sands, Dodgers
Skinny: Sands would probably rate higher if he had a spot sewn up in the Dodgers’ outfield. Hopefully, owners will have more clarity with Sands in April or May.

74. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
Skinny: Cain was a four-category factor in the minors. Hopefully, that status will transition into big-league success for 2012. A solid late-round flier.

75. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics
Skinny: You’ve seen the video of Cespedes running, jumping and P90X-ing his way into the hearts of MLB scouts and general managers. But is he ready to play in the bigs?

76. Seth Smith, Athletics
Skinny: It’s hard to guess how Oakland’s outfield situation will shake out by season’s end, but Smith has respectable potential in all five categories. A late-round coup in any format.

77. Travis Snider, Blue Jays
Skinny: A red-hot spring start has fueled the notion that Snider will put it all together in 2012. Here’s the rub: Toronto’s outfield is stacked right now.

78. Yonder Alonso, Padres
Skinny: The Reds took a big gamble on Joey Votto (beyond 2013) when they traded Alonso, a future star at first base, to the Padres. For Alonso, anything above 14 HRs, 63 RBI and .270 BA would be welcome.

79. Mike Carp, Mariners
Skinny: Carp may finally be getting the requisite playing time to become a productive fantasy asset. Targets: 18 HRs and .282 average.

80. Denard Span, Twins
Skinny: The 80th ranking is more ceremonial than a punitive judgment against Span, who tallied 182 runs and 49 steals in 2009-10. With a productive spring, thus erasing last year’s disappointment, Span could vault 14-17 slots before Opening Day.

80a. Bryce Harper, Nationals
Skinny: It might not matter if the Nationals send Harper down for more minor-league seasoning before Opening Day. Fantasy owners won’t hesitate to take a Round 20 flier on one of the most touted hitting prospects of the last 20 years. Expect a June 1 call-up.

80b. Mike Trout, Angels
Skinny: A springtime illness has effectively curtailed Trout’s chances of making the parent club on Opening Day. Nevertheless, he’s a stealth last-round flier and a can’t-miss prospect for the long term.

80c. Alex Presley, Pirates
Skinny: With an outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Tabata and Presley, the Pirates can afford to be patient with Starling Marte. A .291 hitter in the minors, Presley could develop into a four-category factor.

80d. Allen Craig, Cardinals
Skinny: Like so many prospects at this stage of the countdown, Craig’s fantasy potential is directly proportional to the number of at-bats he’ll accrue in his first full season.

80e. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
Skinny: A poor man’s (or undiscovered) version of Emilio Bonifacio. In the right setting, De Aza could hit .300 and notch 30-35 steals.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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The Detroit Tigers are most likely to win the AL Central division with very little competition from the other division rivals—there is no arguing that. But what about the fine print? What could the Tigers do to shake things up? Will any of the lesser known players break out and become all-stars?

With no one expecting the loss of Victor Martinez to an ACL tear, truly anything could happen this year. I have made some bold predictions, and I am going to tell you why.

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With each passing month of Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson‘s career, it becomes ever more apparent that the way he tore the cover off the ball in the first month of his career was not representative of the kind of player he actually is. In fact, he has not come close to the heights he reached in the March/April days of the 2010 season.

Over the first 23 games of his career, Jackson probably did not know what the big deal about being in the Major League was all about; professional baseball, even at the highest level, was incredibly easy.

During that time span, Jackson hit .364/.422/.495 with a .410 wOBA, which is the hitting line for an All-Star and a borderline MVP candidate. Jackson’s elite production was aided by an absolutely unsustainable .530 batting average on balls in play and a 37.5 line drive percentage.

For the season, Jackson hit .755/.748/1.000 with a .757 wOBA on line drives, further providing proof that line drives are the hits that help a batter the most, and he hit an inordinate amount of line drives in March and April of 2010. Since April 2010 ended, however, Jackson has yet to have a month where his line drive percentage was higher than 28.0 percent, so he has not been able to benefit from as many line drives.

Jackson’s opening month of his career was so extremely not indicative of his actual talent that his next-best month, which took place in July, represents a 13.7 percent drop in his batting average (.314), a 15.2 percent decrease in on-base percentage (.358), a 6.9 percent drop in slugging percentage (.461), a 12.4 percent decrease in wOBA (.359), an 18.5 percent decrease in batting average on balls in play (.432), and a 31.5 percent decrease in line drive percentage (25.7 percent).

His other months are an even more precipitous drop off in his hitting ability, as he spent just as much time being a below-average hitter as an above-average one. Last season, the average wOBA for a player was .320; for three months he was an above-average player, and for three months, he was below-average.

Luckily for Jackson, his above-average months outshone his below-average ones, so he still finished the season with a .333 wOBA.

Jackson’s struggles as a hitter continued over the first month of this baseball season, as he hit only .181/.252/.257 with a .232 wOBA. During those 27 contests, Jackson also posted the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career (.265) so it is no wonder it was another mediocre hitting month for Jackson.

With the way in which Jackson’s career path is trending, his biggest struggle will not be trying to duplicate the first 23 games of his career. Instead, the biggest battle he will face is not being a below-average hitter more often than he is an above-average one.

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The baseball was launched into the furthest, most terrifying reaches of Comerica Park, where the only ball caught is on a bounce or scooped up to stop it from rolling.

As it climbed into the June night’s air, you could hear an entire crowd of 17,000-plus gasp, as if they all had been simultaneously slugged in the gut.

If it was possible to read the minds of such a throng, you could do so in two words, only one fit for print here. The first was “Oh.”

The Indians’ Mark Grudzielanek smacked the pitch from the Tigers’ Armando Galarraga so far into the depths of center field that you not only didn’t expect Austin Jackson to catch it, you were half expecting him to arrive in a taxi.

The baseball was hit so high and so far, it went back in time, because suddenly it was 1954 in the Polo Grounds in New York.

It was 1954 and Austin Jackson was Willie Mays of the New York Giants, tearing after a drive off the bat of Cleveland’s Vic Wertz in the World Series.

But, it was 2010, and this wasn’t the World Series—it was something more, though it was again an Indian hitter who was about to be victimized.

Such is the greatness of baseball that a seemingly run-of-the-mill game played on June 2nd can turn into a heart-stopping, thrilling spectacle whose attendance will grow from 17,000 to 170,000 as more people purport to have been in the stands that evening.

For at stake when Jackson was on the run was Galarraga’s pitching masterpiece—his almost-perfect game that was, at the time of Grudzielanek’s blast, still perfect.

It was the ninth inning, nobody out. Galarraga had set down the first 24 Cleveland Indians in order. But when Grudzielanek took Galarraga to the deepest part of the ballpark, the perfection looked to be gone.

But wait!

Suddenly, here was Jackson, arriving in time to reach out with his left-gloved hand and stab at the air where he hoped the baseball might also be.

It was, and it was being snared by the pocket of Jackson’s glove below waist level as he raced, full bore, toward the center field fence, clearly putting his physical well-being aside for the moment.

The crowd erupted after its few seconds of gasps followed by disappointed silence.

Tigers TV announcer Mario Impemba screamed, “He CAUGHT it!,” as if he’d just seen Humpty Dumpty fall and not break.

Jackson’s play was the greatest catch I’d ever seen in a regular season game.

It wasn’t just the catch itself; it was when it occurred and what was at stake at the time. If Galarraga’s gem hadn’t been spoiled two batters later by an umpire’s inopportune time to be human, Jackson’s catch would be talked about as long as the perfect game. You couldn’t talk of one without speaking of the other.

Yet, umpire Jim Joyce’s blown call doesn’t take away from the magnitude of what Jackson did that night, for at that moment, we knew that the rookie center fielder—sometimes known as, “The Man Who Replaced Curtis Granderson”—was capable of special feats of greatness.

Playing center field is unlike any other charge in pro sports.

Center field isn’t a position, it’s three area codes. Depending on the size of the stadium, the center fielder has to take care of an area that, if it was a public park rather than a ballpark, would be assigned to a staff instead of a person.

Jackson played the position marvelously last season; his first in the big leagues. He also batted lead off and acquitted himself well, batting over .300 for most of the year.

Jackson did a lot of great things in 2010, which is nice because he just happens to be the most important player on the Tigers.

Don’t look at me like that.

No, I haven’t forgotten that guys named Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Victor Martinez are under contract by the Tigers too.

Jackson is the most important because if he gets a case of the sophomore jinxies, and the Tigers don’t have a reliable leadoff hitter, then the house of cards that is the team’s offense gets blown down.

Jackson strikes out a lot, which is understandable for a young player—but also more tolerable when that young player is hitting .300. It’s not so great if the batting average is .250 or .260.

Jackson has to get on base for the Tigers to be successful—he just has to. He struck out 170 times last year, but he also scored 103 runs. Lord knows how many times he scored off the bat of Cabrera.

But if Jackson doesn’t hit so well, if he isn’t getting things going by getting on base, innings will change noticeably. The big boys will be doing a lot more hitting with two outs and no runners in scoring position than you’d like.

The dreaded sophomore jinx is more likely to manifest itself with the bat, rather than the glove. But if Jackson falters there too, then you have just another average center fielder hitting .260.

The Tigers offense doesn’t look like such hot stuff under that scenario, no matter who his hitting third, fourth and fifth.

Big league ball teams don’t put bums in center field and bat them lead off. You do one or the other, you’re a valuable guy. You do BOTH? You’re off the charts valuable.

For all the brute strength of Cabrera, for all the sweet swings of Ordonez and Martinez, the Tigers need Austin Jackson to be the burning fuse at the top of the order. If the kid fizzles out, well, the Tigers will save a lot of money by not having to print playoff tickets.

Fiddlesticks on the pressure. We already know that Jackson can do some great things when the stakes are high. Just ask Armando Galarraga.

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The mainstream media’s fascination with closers reached another level Monday with the announcement that Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers has been named American League Rookie of the Year by the voters from the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

Everyday player Austin Jackson, center fielder for the Detroit Tigers, finished second, but it wasn’t really close. Feliz nabbed 20 of the 28 first-place votes; the other eight went to Jackson.

The writers were blinded by Feliz’s 40 saves for a division winner. We can debate how important a stat saves really are (and we will), but to deny an everyday position player like Jackson the award was a travesty.

What follows are five reasons this is so.

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The Baseball Writers Association of America have announced its choice for AL Rookie of the Year for 2010, and Texas Rangers RP Neftali Feliz took home the honor while capturing 20 of the possible 28 first-place votes.

It was always almost assuredly going to be either Austin Jackson or Neftali Feliz—both of whom had fine seasons, but neither of whom was truly the best rookie in the American League.

The best newbie in the Junior Circuit was a 24-year-old catcher named Carlos Santana.

Before the 2010 season, Santana was widely considered among the best of an immensely talented pool of promising catching prospects. With respect to Mr. Posey, in his short time in the majors, Santana emerged as arguably the best young backstop in baseball.

For the purposes of the Rookie of the Year award, the operative words are “short time in the majors.” Santana appeared in just 46 MLB games this year between his call-up on June 11 and his season-ending knee injury on August 2.

There’s a difference between the most valuable rookie and the best. Yet the lack of playing time is the only rationale voters can possibly have for not naming Santana the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year.

Forget his promising power (.207 ISO, six homers). Forget his decent speed (three steals). Forget the fact that he shored up the middle of Cleveland’s lineup as a catcher. The most fantastic aspect of Santana’s game was his unbelievable plate discipline.

Carlos Santana’s 19.3-percent walk rate was the best in baseball this season among players with at least 100 plate appearances. Keep in mind that he did that as a rookie. To have that kind of plate discipline at age 24—that’s ridiculous. Did I mention he’s a catcher?

All told, Santana was worth 2.0 Wins Above Replacement in just 46 games. Even assuming he doesn’t improve any further (and since he’s not even 25, it’s a safe bet that he will), that makes him a six-win player over a full season. Compare that to the 5.1 WAR Joe Mauer posted this season, and it’s clear the Indians have a tremendous asset on their hands.

Santana’s power and plate discipline mean his success is sustainable (assuming he recovers from his knee problems). That’s more than we can say for Austin Jackson.

Jackson put up nice numbers this year, hitting .293/.345/.400 while scoring 103 runs and swiping 27 bases. But his plate discipline was lacking, as evidenced by his unimpressive 7.0-percent walk rate and scary 27.5-percent strikeout rate. The latter figure is worse than David Wright’s, but without the power. So how did Jackson do so well for himself?

The answer lies in his batting average on balls in play. Jackson’s .396 BABIP was the best in baseball, and while there’s reason to believe it can remain relatively high, it’s absurd to think that it won’t come down next season.

Using The Hardball Times’ xBABIP calculator, we find that a smaller proportion of balls he hits inside the park—.355, still much higher than the average—could be expected to fall for hits.

Substitute his xBABIP for his BABIP and even with the generous assumption that all the lost hits would be singles, his slashline falls to just .263/.311/.370—plus, as the number of times he gets on base decreases, so will his runs and steals. Would you want that kind of player on your team? Would you ever consider casting your vote for that guy for Rookie of the Year?

Interestingly, Santana got shafted in terms of BABIP, meaning his numbers should be even better. Using his .305 xBABIP in place of his .277 BABIP, his slashline jumps to .286/.417/.493. That’s a .910 OPS—probably more, since I assumed all the gained hits would be singles—from a catcher. That’s the kind of production that gets your name in the MVP discussions.

Of course, none of this matters, because (through no fault of his own) Santana played less than a third of a season, and therefore has no chance of being named Rookie of Year. But just because he won’t be doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be.

For more Indians coverage, visit WahooBlues.com.

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While 2010 has been the year of the pitcher, it has also been the year of the rookie. The National League has a crowded field of players who could all win the Rookie of the Year Award in any other year. The American League has a good group of candidates as well.

According to the MLB.com written up on the AL awards race, the finalists are Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson, and Wade Davis, all of whom had very good years. Other people in the running, according to them, are as follows, taken right from the article: “Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers; Reid Brignac, IF, Rays; Jason Donald, SS, Indians; Brian Matusz, Orioles; Will Rhymes, 2B, Tigers; Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox; Sergio Santos, RHP, White Sox; Carlos Santana, C, Indians; Josh Tomlin, RHP, Indians.”

Notice anyone missing in that list? How about a guy who hit .311 in 85 games and helped bring an injury-riddled team to 95 wins and the playoffs? Seriously, you put a guy who played in 45 games (Rhymes) and a guy who played in 46 games (Santana) in a finalist list, but leave off an obvious top-five selection who will certainly get a few votes?

It would be like looking at the NL finalists and leaving off Jaime Garcia completely. Not necessarily the guy that will win it, but someone who’s played enough and played well enough that he will be considered.

Let’s look at what Valencia brings to the table, or the ballot, for that matter. His stats for the most part don’t show dominance, but his .311 average is impressive, as is his .351 on base percentage and .799 OPS, both of which beat out Austin Jackson. His 2.5 WAR is also among the top of his AL contemporaries.

Beyond that, Valencia’s been a decent fielder in an unappreciated and difficult position, third base. Still, even when discounting the offense and defense, the intangibles that he brought to the team helped get them moving. When Brendan Harris and Nick Punto were ineffective, Valencia went right in to the hot corner and solidified that position for the team.

Did he help lead the team when Justin Morneau got injured? No, I won’t go that far. Those honors go to Joe Mauer and Delmon Young. Could we say that though about Josh Tomlin, Chris Sale, or Reid Brignac? Of course not, they were role players at best. Could we say that about Feliz or Davis? No, the Rangers had other great bullpen pitchers and the Rays had other great starting pitchers.

I understand that he has his weaknesses as well. He only played 85 games, unlike the other frontrunners, who played throughout the season. He doesn’t have any eye-popping numbers either, like Feliz does with his rookie saves record.

So am I saying that Valencia should absolutely be Rookie of the Year? Not necessarily. It’s a tough choice between the top four, and one could make a good argument for any of them.

But to leave him out of the discussion entirely? That’s just embarrassing.

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Two weeks ago, Bleacher Report’s MLB Featured Columnists began releasing the results of our end-of-season awards vote. Over the last fortnight, we’ve debated our picks for Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, Comeback Players, and Rolaids Relief Men of the Year.

Today we begin covering the major awards with the AL Rookie of the Year award. At 2 p.m. EST next Monday, the BBWAA will release their choice for the Junior Circuit’s best newbie; until then, you’re stuck with ours.

This was the closest race we had, with just one first-place vote separating the top two finishers, and we had a tie for fifth place. The top six finishers are featured here, with the full results at the end.

So read on, see how we did and be sure to let us know what we got wrong!

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As the regular season wraps up, many teams and their fans are looking to October and, they hope, a World Series win. For other teams and their fans, they are looking to the offseason, hoping to make a few trades or free agent acquisitions to bounce them back into contention.

In some situations, these trades end up paying huge dividends, and not always for the party that was looking to get the major piece. At the same time, once in a while there’s a great free agent pickup at a bargain that launches a team into the playoffs and a World Series ring.

Starting with the 1999-2000 offseason through this past one, this slideshow notes the 20 best steals of the past decade. Some may have slipped by me, as there’s nowhere to easily find these unless one has an institutional memory of these things.

The years listed in the slides is the offseason that it took place in. i.e. a trade from November 2000 to March 2001 will be listed as 2000.

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The 2010 Major League Baseball season is winding down. Here is who should win the major awards for each league and who will actually win the awards.

For each league, I’ll examine the Most Valuable Player awards, Cy Young awards, Rookie of the Year awards, Silver Sluggers, and Gold Gloves.

Also included is the fringe players who should also be considered for the awards.

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