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There’s what Madison Bumgarner is making, what he’s worth and how much he might make in his next contract.

Spoiler alert: These three things are very different.

What’s certain is the San Francisco Giants have gotten a lot more than they bargained for when they extended Bumgarner in April 2012. The left-hander’s contract guaranteed $35 million through 2017, with two club options in 2018 and 2019 worth at least $12 million and at most $16 million depending on his performance in Cy Young voting.

In five regular seasons since, this has paid for a 2.96 ERA across 1,072 innings. Bumgarner has further earned his cash by helping deliver World Series titles in 2012 and 2014. He won the latter championship almost single-handedly.

By Baseball-Reference.com’s version of wins above replacement, Bumgarner has only been the 11th-best pitcher in the league over the last five years. This is somewhere between hogwash and codswallop. He’s at worst a top-10 pitcher and more realistically a top-five pitcher.

Oh yeah, he’s still only 27.

It would be fun to speculate about what Bumgarner might earn on the open market in any offseason. But such a conversation is especially fun this offseason.

This is not only the winter he would have been a free agent had he not signed his extension but also a winter in which the demand for his services would’ve been elevated by the lack of other free-agent aces.

The total record payout for a free-agent starter is the $217 million David Price got from the Boston Red Sox last offseason. Bumgarner would have beaten that with room to spare, becoming easily the most expensive pitcher in history.

Of course, Bumgarner isn’t a free agent right now. There are thus only two ways he can land a contract more befitting of his talent: He can either ride three more healthy and productive years into free agency after 2019 or hope the Giants come calling with a second contract extension before then.

Not surprisingly, the Giants are very much interested in keeping him.

When the topic of Bumgarner’s future with the club was raised last October, Giants general manager Bobby Evans confirmed to Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group that preliminary conversations had taken place with Bumgarner’s representatives.

“When they’re interested in talking, we want to make sure we’re available,” Evans said. “But we don’t have a timeline. We want Madison to be here for a long time. At the right time, we’ll address this when his camp is ready to talk.”

In all likelihood, the right timeline for extending Bumgarner isn’t imminent.

The Giants are coming off their second straight year over the luxury tax threshold and are slated to be over the threshold again this year. The best time for them to extend Bumgarner would be after 2017, when they’re slated to have a fair amount of money come off their books.

Assuming his $21 million option for 2018 doesn’t vest, it’s a virtual lock the Giants will pay Matt Cain his $7.5 million buyout after 2017. Even more money would come loose if Johnny Cueto opts out of the final four years of his six-year, $130 million contract.

If Bumgarner and the Giants do indeed see a window after 2017, he’d be in a similar position age-wise to Stephen Strasburg when he signed his seven-year, $175 million extension with the Washington Nationals last May. That’s set to begin in his age-28 season in 2017. Bumgarner will be going into his age-28 season in 2018.

Of course, Bumgarner is a better, more durable and generally more accomplished pitcher than Strasburg, so an improvement on his deal would be in order. Say, something more like seven years at over $30 million per year.

While that wouldn’t match Bumgarner’s value on this winter’s market, he’d get the same going rate as Price, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, who are very much his peers.

However, there’s a rub.

Strasburg was only a couple of months from free agency when he inked his deal, so he had some leverage in his talks with the Nationals. Bumgarner will still be two years away from free agency if he negotiates next winter, giving him considerably less leverage.

“You’ll never get your value if you renegotiate early,” one agent told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle at the winter meetings, although he also admitted, “Bumgarner might be the exception because he is so unbelievable.”

As unbelievable as Bumgarner is, he’d likely have to hold off on signing and continue being himself in 2018 and 2019 to gain enough leverage to squeeze market value out of the Giants. That would require him not to break down. His track record bodes well there, but no pitcher is unbreakable. He’d be taking a chance.

Alternatively, Bumgarner and the Giants could make it easy on themselves and find the middle ground next winter.

My best guess is that would involve going back to 2013 and taking a cue from Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners. When they agreed to a seven-year, $175 million extension, what they actually agreed to was a five-year, $135.5 million deal on top of money Hernandez was still owed in the final two years of his original contract of five years and $78 million. Although he signed coming off his age-26 season, his new deal wouldn’t begin until his age-29 season in 2015.

The ages won’t quite line up if Bumgarner and the Giants go this route after 2017. He’d be coming off his age-27 season and negotiating a deal that would start in his age-30 season in 2020. But since the timing and talent similarities are there, the only other big difference would be the passage of time and corresponding inflation.

So, let’s see…call it five years and $150 million, starting in 2020 and running through 2024?

That plus the money in Bumgarner’s 2018 and 2019 options would mean at least $174 million and at most $182 million over a seven-year span. That would be good money for him and also a considerable discount for the Giants. Ergo, the middle ground.

Since this is a complicated case with lots of ins, outs and what-have-yous, my best guess is obviously less than a promise. The Giants could choose to be more generous despite their leverage advantage. Or, Bumgarner could be the generous one. Or, he could choose to bet on himself in 2018 and 2019, either to gain leverage on the Giants or boost his value for free agency.

Regardless, Bumgarner is only going to get closer to some kind of big payday as time passes. When it comes, it’ll put his first payday to shame.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Major League Baseball’s reigning home run champion has a new contract, and it’s not the most expensive contract signed this winter.

Not even close.

Mark Trumbo, he of the league-leading 47 home runs in 2016, agreed to return to the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports was first with the details of his new deal:

And that’s all there is to it. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, there’s no opt-out in Trumbo‘s contract. He’ll be an Oriole for three more years, spanning his age-31 season to his age-33 season.

With that, we now know the terms of the 11th-largest contract signed this winter.

Trumbo‘s deal ranks just ahead of the three-year, $33 million pact that Kendrys Morales signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. The group of 10 players ahead of him is headlined by Yoenis Cespedes at four years and $110 million and also includes three relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon), a platoon outfielder (Josh Reddick) and an oft-injured starter (Rich Hill).

OK, so it’s not the biggest injustice that Trumbo won’t be making more money than most or all of those guys. But if nothing else, he is coming in under initial projections.

The guys at MLB Trade Rumors, for example, had Trumbo pegged for $60 million over four years. That didn’t sound so unreasonable for a guy who had hit 131 homers in five major league seasons even before breaking out in 2016. Teams normally do love power, after all.

But in retrospect, the danger of Trumbo struggling to find a market existed from the very beginning.

As good as it looks on the surface, Trumbo‘s career year in 2016 was more like a career half-year. He was unstoppable with a .923 OPS and 28 homers in the first half. He was then quite stoppable in the second half with a .754 OPS and 19 homers.

This was an effect of pitchers treating Trumbo like the kind of slugger he was. As Brooks Baseball shows, the righty swinger’s first-half power was concentrated on the inside. So pitchers went from challenging him:

To pitching him almost exclusively away:

A more advanced hitter might have been able to adjust, but nobody’s ever accused Trumbo of being one of those. With too many strikeouts and not quite enough walks, his hitting has always been about power first and everything else second.

That’s one thing prospective suitors had to worry about. They also had to worry about Trumbo‘s defensive limitations.

He’s not too shabby a first baseman, but most of his experience has been in corner outfield spots. With minus-24 defensive runs saved for his career, he has been shabby there. The man himself was honest back in July, saying the outfield is “daunting” at times, per Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.

Trumbo was thus prepared to head out onto the open market with a bat-only profile in which even the bat came with question marks. He then added another black mark to his profile when he rejected a $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Orioles, tying himself to draft-pick compensation.

In past offseasons, he might have found his desired payday anyway. Heck, it was just a couple years ago that Nelson Cruz, an older hitter with a similar profile, landed $58 million despite being tied to draft-pick compensation.

But at a certain point, it became apparent this offseason was different.

Reality started to sink in when Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Cleveland Indians for just $60 million over three years. That was well below the $92 million MLBTR projected for him and less than he seemingly deserved in light of his average totals (.912 OPS, 39 HR) since 2012.

More recently, Jose Bautista became the next slugger to land short of expectations when he accepted a deal from the Blue Jays that only guarantees $18 million for one year.

With Trumbo being the latest to come in below expectations, things aren’t looking so hot for remaining free-agent sluggers Chris Carter, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez and Adam Lind.

Certainly, this is an unusually large collection of sluggers for a single offseason. But as Dave Cameron argued at FanGraphs, there’s something fishy about any notion of there being more supply than demand:

But the way you get a big supply of free agents or players available in trade at one spot is to have a lot of teams losing a player at that spot, so if the demand was there to replace the skillset, price shouldn’t be impacted all that heavily. But what we have now is supply without demand, as there just aren’t that many teams looking to add bat-first players to their rosters this winter…

This could be teams miscalculating how much they need power. But since the smart people who run these teams tend to be good with calculations, this is more likely the effect of a larger trend.

This brings us to a reality that B/R’s Jacob Shafer wrote about recently: Power on the free-agent market may be devalued because power is suddenly everywhere in today’s game.

Trumbo wasn’t the only one launching bombs in 2016. Pretty much everyone was. There were more home runs per game last year than every year in baseball history except 2000. In an environment like this one, power hitters aren’t such a rare commodity.

It all adds up to a tough break for Trumbo and a solid deal for the Orioles. And one they needed to make, to boot.

The Orioles won 89 games and nabbed a wild-card spot in 2016 in large part thanks to an offense that clubbed an MLB-high 253 home runs. With Trumbo back in the fold, they once again have a shot to ride a wave of home runs to October.

In lieu of the contract he may have been hoping for, maybe that’ll do as a consolation prize for Trumbo.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

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Outfielder Mark Trumbo agreed to re-sign with the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, the team announced. 

Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun first reported the deal on Thursday. 

According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the three-year deal is for $37.5 million. ESPN’s Jim Bowden reported Trumbo has a limited no-trade clause for seven teams and incentivized, tiered bonuses dependent on how many times he wins the Silver Slugger award. 

Trumbo, 31, had a career year for the Orioles in 2016, hitting .256 with 47 home runs—the most in the major leagues—and 108 RBI. His home run and RBI totals were both career highs.

While Trumbo flashed excellent power earlier in his career—from 2011 to 2013, he hit 95 home runs with 282 RBI for the Los Angeles Angels—he established himself as one of baseball’s most dangerous power hitters last season.

That was in stark contrast to his stints with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners in 2014 and 2015, when he totaled just 36 homers and 125 RBI.

His surge in production left him as one of the most appealing free agents on the market for teams looking to add a big bopper to the middle of their lineups. That made Baltimore’s chances of retaining him uncertain, though Trumbo seemed inclined to return to the Orioles following the season.

“I love it here,” he told Steve Melewski of MASN after the team’s Wild Card Game loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. “Had a great time and I’m sure we’ll talk at some point. Who wouldn’t (want to come back)? It has been an absolute blast this year.”

The Orioles wanted him back just as much and now will be hoping that Trumbo’s power numbers were his new norm and not an outlier.

If Trumbo doesn’t knock the ball out of the park, his value wanes. He’s a below-average fielder, and he’s unlikely to provide a great batting average or on-base percentage. Baltimore bet big money that Trumbo’s power surge will continue in 2017.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Free-agent closer Neftali Feliz is on the move once again, as he signed Thursday with the Milwaukee Brewers, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.

SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo confirmed Passan‘s reports and added that it is a one-year deal worth $5.35 million (with a max of $6.85 million with incentives).

Feliz has been no stranger to free agency.

He was granted free agency from the Texas Rangers in July 2015 and joined the Detroit Tigers, only to hit the market once again after that season.

He then signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates during the winter prior to the 2016 season. 

The 28-year-old has been unable to maintain the level of play that made him one of baseball’s best young arms out of the bullpen upon his arrival to the majors. 

During his second season in 2010 as a 22-year-old, Feliz posted a 2.73 ERA and 40 saves, earning his first and only All-Star selection. The following year would see him rack up another 32 saves as he was Texas’ closer during its run of two consecutive American League championships.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2012, Feliz was limited to just six games in 2013 before a strong return the following year. In 2014, he posted a 1.99 ERA in 30 appearances with 13 saves. 

Feliz saw his ERA swell to 6.38 in 2015 with the Rangers and Tigers as a setup man in what was by far his worst season in the majors. But he did manage to bounce back fairly well last year, cutting his ERA to 3.52 as a late-inning option in Pittsburgh. 

Now in Milwaukee, Feliz will have an opportunity to become the team’s go-to closer. In 2016, the Brewers had inconsistencies at that spot, as Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Thornburg combined for 40 saves. 

However, the Brewers blew 22 save opportunities, which was tied for eighth-most in the majors. In an attempt to revamp their situation, they dealt Jeffress at the trade deadline to the Rangers as a part of the Jonathan Lucroy deal and traded Thornburg to the Boston Red Sox during the winter meetings.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

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Jennifer Steinbrenner Swindal, a New York Yankees general partner and the daughter of longtime team owner George Steinbrenner, stated Wednesday the family still has no plans to sell the organization.

Dan Martin of the New York Post passed along comments Swindal made during a team charitable event called “Winter Warm-up” for the elderly. She said the family’s long-term outlook hasn’t changed since her father’s death in 2010.

“We’re all in,” she said. “I hope we own the team for eternity. You never know what life will bring, but we’re in it for the long haul.”

Swindal noted her son, Steve Swindal Jr., has taken on a role in baseball operations to help set the stage for a smooth transition to the next generation. She also praised Hal Steinbrenner, her brother and the team’s principal owner, for his job handling the franchise in recent years.

“Initially, we were trying to figure out how we were all going to handle things and when my father got sick, all four of us [siblings] went to work,” she said. “Hal has been a leader and he’s been great.”

Although questions are raised about a potential sale on seemingly an annual basis, the remarks echo those made by Hal Steinbrenner last spring training. He told Wallace Matthews of ESPN.com his father would be happy with how the family has stuck together to make things work.

“This is a family business and we’re all involved,” Steinbrenner said. “We all love being a part of this. We all know our dad wanted us to be a part of us, and we all know he’s watching down on us and happy that we’re all a part of it. Believe it or not, to us, that’s a big deal. The idea is, let’s keep it going.”

A lot is made about the Yankees’ lack of marquee free-agent signings since the death of George Steinbrenner. The inclusion of a luxury tax paired with having to pay off massive contracts has forced the team to avoid those major offseason splashes for the most part, though.

Furthermore, New York ranks second in payroll average over the past three years, according to the Baseball Cube. The Bronx Bombers still rank first in that category over the past 10 and 15 years.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed optimism the front office would have more flexibility in 2018 as contracts start coming off the books, per Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media:

Well, this is my hope: First and foremost, as you see we’re transitioning from contracts that we vested heavily in and it did pay off for us in ’09 (with a World Series championship). So at the end of the day we are going to be in a position to do a number of things, and maybe we can turn the clock back to be big-game hunters that we have been accustomed to being.

The current generation of Steinbrenners have been hamstrung by the team’s financial situation after working hard to chase down the 2009 title. But the fanbase will want them to become high-end buyers once again next winter with superstar outfielder Bryce Harper among the possible free agents.    

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When it comes to opt-out clauses, the New York Yankees tend to opt in.

They aren’t always happy about it. They don’t always do it right away. But when Alex Rodriguez opted out of his deal during the 2007 World Series, the Yankees turned around and gave him a bigger contract they would come to regret.

When CC Sabathia was ready to opt out of his contract four years later, the Yankees added what amounted to two years and $50 million, another deal they wouldn‘t mind having back.

So now we come to Masahiro Tanaka. As every Yankees fan knows, he’s the closest to a sure thing they have in their 2017 rotation. And as every Yankees fan knows by now, he can opt out of his contract when the 2017 season ends.

There’s no way the Yankees can make this work in their favor. If Tanaka has a great year, he obviously opts out of the final three years and $67 million of what was originally a seven-year, $155 million contract. Then the Yankees pay him market value—more than his current $22 million a year, and more years—or someone else does.

If Tanaka has a decent year and stays healthy, he still almost certainly opts out. Or threatens to, with the Yankees extending his contract.

Or maybe Tanaka gets hurt. He made 31 starts in 2016, but he is still pitching with a slight tear in the UCL in his right elbow. It could tear further, requiring Tommy John surgery. He could suffer a different injury. Either way, he sticks with his current contract, and the Yankees are stuck paying him.

The Yankees obviously know all this. They knew it when they agreed to Tanaka‘s original contract. Three years into the deal, they were either going to pay more to keep him or he wasn‘t going to be worth what they were paying him.

There was no way that could work in their favor. But opt-outs are part of getting big contracts done—David Price and Clayton Kershaw have them too—and the only way around them is to offer even more guaranteed money.

The problem for the Yankees is they’re short on dependable starting pitching. They likely need to shop in the starting pitching market next winter even if Tanaka stays.

Behind Tanaka, they have only Sabathia (who’s old) and Michael Pineda (who’s unreliable). Both of their contracts expire after 2017 (which isn‘t necessarily a bad thing).

Behind them, the guy with the most career major league starts on the Yankees roster is Luis Severino with 22. They’re not even sure he should be a starter.

The guy with the next most career starts is Adam Warren with 21. They don’t want him to be a starting pitcher.

You get the picture, and you get why the Yankees would rather not think about Tanaka leaving.

So why not just eliminate the risk and renegotiate his contract now? Why did general manager Brian Cashman tell reporters the Yankees have no plans to do that?

Simple. Even though a new contract eliminates the risk of Tanaka‘s walking away, it adds the risk of getting stuck with an even bigger contract the Yankees don’t want.

Remember the $21 million they’re still paying A-Rod in 2017. Remember the $25 million they have committed to a 36-year-old Sabathia.

When Sabathia was ready to opt out in November 2011, he was 31 years old and had just finished fourth in the American League Cy Young Award vote. The new contract wasn‘t ideal, but Sabathia had averaged 235 innings over his first three seasons as a Yankee. He seemed like a decent risk.

Tanaka will be two years younger when he reaches his opt-out date, but he has yet to finish higher than seventh in Cy Young voting. He has yet to pitch 200 innings in a major league season (he did it in Japan). He has pitched significantly better when he gets an extra day of rest, complicating how the Yankees set up their rotation. And he has that ligament tear.

He’s not an ideal candidate for a long, expensive contract. But maybe he doesn‘t need to be. Rich Hill, who is 36 and was hurt so much that he only made 20 regular-season starts in 2016, got a three-year, $48 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Starting pitching is expensive, and it’s only getting more expensive. The Yankees know that, and so does Tanaka.

They’ll take their chances and hope he pitches well enough to lift them into contention in the American League East this year. If it costs them more money and a contract they don’t love, so be it.

They have little choice at this point.

That opt-out clause is going to work out well for him, one way or another. It won’t work out as well for the Yankees.

Opt-out clauses rarely do.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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For the first time since the waning days of the George W. Bush administration, the San Francisco Giants didn’t win the World Series in an even year.

Now, as we prepare to inaugurate President Donald J. Trump, San Francisco will look to usher in an era of odd-year dominance. 

First, they’ve got spring training issues to sort out, including position battles in left field, at third base and the back end of the rotation, where a former franchise cornerstone is trying to resuscitate his career.

Limber up your commenting muscles and dig in when ready.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers need a second baseman. You know this. They know this. Your great-aunt Meredith who doesn’t follow baseball knows this.

Yet as I type these words, Enrique Hernandez and his .190/.283/.324 2016 slash line sit atop L.A.’s second base depth chart. For a team with the game’s gaudiest payroll and legitimate World Series aspirations, that’s a bad look.

Let’s assume the Dodgers brass is working hard to address the club’s keystone deficiency and examine some other interesting storylines heading into spring training. (Because it’s almost here—hooray!)

Dodgers camp will feature crowded position battles in the outfield and at the back end of the rotation, a hyper-talented Cuban still looking to find his footing and the reigning National League Rookie of the Year ramping up for a potential MVP encore.

Break out your fungo bat and step into the box when ready.

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The Colorado Rockies have signed veteran utility man Alexi Amarista to a contract. 

The team officially announced a one-year deal with Amarista for 2017. 

An agreement between Amarista and the Rockies has been in the works for weeks, with Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reporting on Dec. 26 it would be a one-year deal with an option for 2018.  

The official announcement does not mention an option year in the contract, but the Rockies do upgrade their depth all over the field with Amarista next season. 

The 27-year-old Amarista has played six positions during his MLB career, including two brief appearances as a pitcher in 2015 and 2016. He was primarily an infielder with the San Diego Padres last season, shifting between second base, third base and shortstop. 

The Rockies have spent their offseason trying to add more versatility. Gerardo Parra has the ability to play all three outfield positions and Ian Desmond will be the team’s starting first baseman and has experience at shortstop and center field. 

Amarista doesn’t offer much with the bat, owning a .230/.276/.320 slash line in six seasons with the Padres and Los Angeles Angels. Moving to hitter-friendly Coors Field could provide a boost to his offensive numbers, but the Rockies are signing him for depth more than anything else. 

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The San Diego Padres and first baseman Wil Myers finalized their agreement on a new six-year contract extension.

The Padres officially announced Myers’ extension will run through 2022 with a team option for 2023.

Jim Bowden of ESPN first reported the new deal last week. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports noted the contract was expected to be worth “more than $80 million.”

Myers, a former top prospect in the Tampa Bay Rays organization, finally started illustrating his high-end potential during a breakout 2016 campaign. The 26-year-old infielder posted a .336 on-base percentage with 28 home runs and 28 stolen bases this past season.

The converted outfielder has handled the transition well, posting a plus-eight defensive runs saved figure in his first full season at first base, according to FanGraphs. His speed also gives the Padres something most teams don’t receive from the traditionally power-heavy position.

The extension doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Myers told Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune coming out of the All-Star break that he was interested in staying put for the long haul:

I love being here. I do really, truly believe that (General Manager) A.J. Preller has a plan for the future, and that’s a big deal when it comes to extension talks. I love everything about (Manager) Andy Green, what he’s done here. I think he’s going to be a great manager. As far as being here long-term, I could see myself doing it. I could see trying to build something here.

It’s a smart move by the Padres based on the first baseman’s talent. He merely scratched the surface of what he’s capable of this season. He has the skill set to become one of the top hitters in the National League over the next few years.

The only real question mark is his health. He’s dealt with a variety of injury issues since breaking into the big leagues with Tampa Bay in 2013. Those setbacks are why it took him so long to back up his strong debut campaign, and they likely played a role in the Rays trading him two years ago.

The Padres have had six consecutive losing seasons, but general manager A.J. Preller made a series of deals last season to greatly improve the farm system with high-end talents like Anderson Espinoza and Manuel Margot. 

Combine the talent making its way through the system with Myers’ natural hitting ability, and when all the pieces converge in San Diego over the next couple of seasons, the Padres will be a serious threat in the National League.

With the new contract in hand, Myers will now hope to leave those injury concerns in the rearview mirror and remain an important cog in the San Diego lineup for the foreseeable future.

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