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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America will announce the 2015 MLB Hall of Fame class Tuesday, Jan. 6, at 2 p.m. ET, as this year’s crop of candidates will look to follow up what was an impressive 2014 class.

A total of 34 players are featured on this year’s ballot, 17 newcomers and 17 holdovers, with a trio of pitchers in Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz highlighting the first-time eligible players.

Last year saw three all-time greats earn enshrinement in Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas, and this year’s class has a chance to be equally impressive.

So ahead of the official voting results, here is a complete rundown of the 2015 candidates.

Also included are predictions on how the voting will inevitably shake out, based on partial voting results that have been made public as well as overall voting trends in recent years.

*Note: Vote total predictions based on 571 possible ballots, the number cast last season, though more or less could wind up being cast.

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John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling…or all of the above? It’s a question Hall of Fame voters wrestled with this year (we’ll find out what they concluded on Tuesday), and it’s a damn tough one.

Or maybe not, if you believe the tally of public HOF votes at Baseball Think Factory. As of Jan. 4, Smoltz sat at 88.3 percent, trailing only Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez among eligible players.

Meanwhile, Schilling (53.8 percent) and Mussina (37.9 percent) fell well below the 75 percent threshold needed for induction.

What gives? Why does Smoltz look like a lock to follow his former Atlanta Braves teammates and 2014 inductees Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine into Cooperstown while Schilling and Mussina appear destined to miss out?

Let’s put the three pitchers’ key stats side-by-side and go from there:

Those are remarkably similar lines. And if you use career wins above replacement (WAR), Schilling (79.9) and Mussina (83) have a sizable edge over Smoltz (69.5), per Baseball-Reference.

Of course, we’ve yet to mention the three seasons Smoltz spent slamming the door as Atlanta’s closer. Between 2002 and 2004, the right-hander racked up 144 saves, including an MLB-leading 55 in ’02. 

When Smoltz hung ’em up in 2009, he had 154 saves to pair with 213 wins. Both stats might be overrated, scoffed at by the sabermetrically inclined, but they’re eye-catching, which may at least partly explain the voting disparity.

Not everyone is impressed. As Grantland‘s Ben Lindberg notes:

The portrayal of Smoltz as a Swiss Army ace relies on shaky logic: Every elite starter has the ability to be a dominant closer, and Smoltz shouldn’t get extra credit for the fragility that temporarily forced his team to use him in a less valuable role. After all, Mussina wouldn’t be a better candidate if he’d taken a sabbatical from starting to pitch out of the bullpen for Baltimore.

It’s a salient point. Theoretically, Mussina and Schilling would have been equal if they’d tried their hand at ninth-inning duties. Heck, they might have been better.

The fact is, though, we’ll never know. Smoltz is the only one who pitched consistently out of the pen, and he put up some imposing numbers to stack next to the dominant stats he compiled as a starter.

OK, what about the postseason? Many a HOF candidacy has been made—or broken—on October performance.

This is where Smoltz and Schilling gain a little separation from Mussina. Here are the three pitchers’ key stats, this time for the playoffs and World Series only:

It’s not that Mussina embarrassed himself under the bright autumn glare, but the numbers (ERA specifically) put him a step off the pace.

And, unlike Smoltz and Schilling, he never won a ring. Fair or not, that’s something many voters consider.

Speaking of factors worth weighing, let’s swing the pendulum back in Mussina’s favor and point out that he pitched his entire 18-year career with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles in the hitter-friendly American League East.

Plus, he’s the only member of the HOF-hopeful troika who never tossed an inning in the National League, where the pitchers hit and the DH is a dirty word.

So you see how this goes—back and forth, point counterpoint. Why not simply let all three in?

Peter Gammons, no doubt an authority on the subject, says that’s the ticket, writing on Daily Gammons that Smoltz is a “no-doubter,” while Schilling and Mussina also belong on baseball’s most hallowed post-career stage.

All three, Gammons points out, pitched in the heart of the steroid era, “a time period in which we do not choose to elect Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and some others because of their suspected PED usage.”

But with Martinez and Johnson first-ballot locks and plenty of worthy position players in the mix, the math gets tricky.

For what it’s worth, I put Smoltz on my unofficial Bleacher Report ballot and left off Schilling and Mussina.

It was a difficult decision. In the end, I was swayed (I’ll admit) by the 150 saves and the fact that Smoltz, even more than Maddux and Glavine, was the connecting thread throughout the Braves’ magnificent run of 14 consecutive division titles between 1991 and 2005. 

Still, I think Schilling and Mussina belong in the Hall. I also happen to think players like Bonds and Roger Clemens should be there, steroid stench aside. I suspect other writers whose votes actually count faced a similar dilemma.

Schilling garnered just 29.2 percent in 2014 and Mussina a scant 20.3. This will be Schilling’s third year of eligibility and Mussina’s second; it’s conceivable both could fall off entirely in the future, though almost certainly not this year. (Only five percent is needed to stay on the ballot.) 

Even if you view both pitchers as borderline HOF talents, those vote totals are surprisingly low. Particularly for Schilling, who combines impressive stats with big-game mythology. Have we forgotten the bloody sock already?

Here’s what Schilling told MLB.com‘s Ian Browne in 2014 after he missed the cut:

Whether I believe [I belong] or what I think is irrelevant. I know what I did. At the end of the day, when I think about my career, the thing I always tell people that I wanted when I started was, I wanted to have a career where the 24 guys I suited up with, if their life depended on a win or a loss, who would they want to have the ball? I wanted to be that guy.

He was that guy; so were Smoltz and Mussina. The question now is whether they’ll be guys with busts in a museum in Otsego County, New York. 

In a way, it doesn’t matter; their individual achievements stand tall regardless. But in another way, it matters a lot.

That’s what makes the Hall of Fame special and confounding all at once, and what makes these questions so damn tough.

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The chance for debate in Major League Baseball never ends. The individual awards were just handed out, and as if on cue, here comes the announcement for the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot ready to provide the next topic sure to spark discussion and more than a little disagreement.

There are plenty of subplots to consider—will Craig Biggio get in after missing by a mere two votes last time? what happens to those with links to performance-enhancing drugs (whether rumored or real)? which players will the ongoing bottleneck hurt most?—but the focus here is on one new name to the list, in particular.

Of the three big-name pitchers added to the this year’s Hall of Fame ballot—Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz—the first two are no-doubt first-ballot entries. The third has a great chance of being voted in too, but his case isn’t quite as open-and-shut by comparison.

As impressive as Smoltz was over his 21 years in Major League Baseball, his accomplishments aren’t on par with those of Johnson and Martinez. That shouldn’t be held against Smoltz, of course, but it does mean he is overshadowed by two better pitchers—heck, two all-time greats—in year one.

That presents the possibility Smoltz might not make it to Cooperstown in his first go-around.

Johnson, who won five Cy Young Awards, including a record-tying four straight (1999-02), finished his 22-year career with 303 wins and 4,875 strikeouts, second most all time behind Nolan Ryan’s 5,714.

Martinez, in his 18 seasons, posted the sixth-best winning percentage ever (.687) and owned a 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. He also won the Cy three times (1997, 1999-00), with his very best seasons at the height of the steroid era in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Those two? They’re getting in, and they’re likely getting upward of 95 percent of the vote as two of the very best in baseball history.

Plain as day, both Johnson and Martinez rank in the top 20 among pitchers, according to both versions of wins above replacement, fWAR (from FanGraphs) and rWAR (from Baseball-Reference.com). They were as good as it gets in their time—and rank right up there all time too.

Smoltz was dominant in his own right, and for a very long time—he’s one of only 16 pitchers with 3,000 career strikeouts—but his career path was quite different from that of Johnson and Martinez.

A huge part of the Braves’ success throughout the 1990s and into the early 2000s—remember, they won an unprecedented 14 consecutive division titles—Smoltz split his career between the rotation and the bullpen.

While both Johnson and Martinez started at least 85 percent of their career appearances, Smoltz worked in relief in 242 of his 723 games—or about 33 percent.

The switch from starter to reliever came late in his career, after Smoltz underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of the 2000 season. He eventually did return to starting to wrap up his time in the majors.

“When I was playing, I wanted to win more than anything,” Smoltz said via Barry Bloom of MLB.com. “I never really even contemplated any of those decisions when I changed direction in my career for the risk or reward of the Hall of Fame. That never even entered my mind.”

That back-and-forth could work against Smoltz, even if the right-hander was an incredibly effective closer, compiling 154 saves, a 2.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his four seasons in the pen (2001-04).

So could the fact that Smoltz wasn’t the best pitcher on his own team for almost every one of his 21 seasons.

Again, however, that can’t be held against the now 47-year-old, who just so happened to pitch alongside Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine—both of whom earned 90-plus percent of the vote to make the Hall as first-timers last year—for so much of his career.

Now that he’s joining the ballot with Johnson and Martinez, Smoltz is once again overshadowed.

But this is more than just a player who can make a claim as the first—and still only—pitcher ever to have at least 200 wins (213) and 150 saves (154) in his career. Smoltz also won the 1996 NL Cy Young and has one of the very best playoff resumes around.

Only Andy Pettitte, with 19, has more postseason wins than Smoltz’s 15. What’s more, his 209.0 innings check in as the third most, and nobody has more than Smoltz’s 199 strikeouts in October.

And here’s that same fWAR/rWAR chart from above, only with Smoltz’s fWAR and rWAR included too:

By either measure, Smoltz is a top-40 pitcher in MLB history, and he has a case for being in the top 25, at least in the context of FanGraphs.

Here’s where one last wrench can be thrown when it comes to Smoltz’s shot at getting into the Hall, especially on his first attempt.

Not counting Johnson and Martinez, of the 36 pitchers who rate ahead of Smoltz on the career rWAR list, there are six who are not enshrined, including Rick Reuschel, whose career began 16 years before Smoltz’s did and Jim McCormick, whose career dates back to, well, practically the Civil War.

The other four, however, are contemporaries of Smoltz: Roger Clemens (139.5 fWAR/139.4 rWAR), Mike Mussina (82.5/82.7), Curt Schilling (83.2/80.7) and Kevin Brown (73.5/68.5).

This foursome represents a wide range of outcomes on the Hall of Fame voting scale, as Clemens has yet to make it in, only because of his PED-linked past; while Brown surprisingly failed to garner even the necessary 5 percent of votes in his first year and thus dropped off the ballot.

Mussina and Schilling both were stuck in the who-knows 20 percent territory last year and appear to be victims of the recent overload of worthy (or near-worthy) players that has hampered Baseball Writers Association of America voters who can choose only up to 10 players in a given year.

The guess here, though, is that the latter two eventually will get in—and deservedly so—and that Smoltz will receive a boost for his success as both a starter and a closer, even if that’s more superficial than substantive.

There’s also the chance Smoltz will get an extra push from being considered alongside former Braves rotation-mates Maddux and Glavine as well as longtime skipper Bobby Cox, all three of whom were inducted last year while Smoltz was in Cooperstown as an analyst for MLB Network.

“I thought it was one of the coolest things I have ever been a part of,” Smoltz said via Bloom. “I mean that from a standpoint of even if I never get in.”

Smoltz shouldn’t have to worry about never getting in—he will. And it very well could happen on his first shot.

Ultimately, if the question is one of worthiness, when the results are announced on Jan. 6, 2015, Johnson, Martinez and Smoltz all should be in.

But given the number of Hall-worthy candidates still in the mix and that writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players—not to mention that Smoltz isn’t quite the shoe-in Johnson and Martinez are and has a few contemporaries who aren’t yet in—don’t be surprised if Maddux and Glavine don’t see their former teammate join them right away.

Regardless, Smoltz should be prepared to make a speech during the Hall of Fame’s induction weekend. It just might not happen next July.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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The 2015 MLB Hall of Fame ballot is set to officially be released Monday, and with it comes the start of this year’s debate over who deserves to be immortalized in Cooperstown.

Among the newcomers to the ballot are a trio of pitchers who were among the best of their generation in Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz.

The first-timers will join 17 holdovers from last year’s ballot, led by Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines, who all received at least 45 percent of the vote last year.

Rather than predicting who will be enshrined and laying out who the deserving candidates are, the following will take a crack at predicting which superstars will be snubbed.

For the sake of argument, two different levels of snub will be considered.

• Snubbed off the Ballot: These are first-time guys who have the body of work to at least stick around on the ballot for a few years and have their case debated but will receive less than the necessary 5 percent of the vote and be eliminated from further consideration.

• Snubbed from Induction: These are the guys who are genuinely worthy of induction but will fall short of the necessary 75 percent of the vote to officially earn their way into Cooperstown.

So, with that in mind, here is my best guess for the biggest superstar snubs in the 2015 MLB Hall of Fame vote.

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After years of only inducting a few players into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, the 2014 class welcomes six more-than-deserving players and managers.

It seemed to be an Atlanta Braves year, as former pitchers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, as well as former manager Bobby Cox, enter the Hall.

Watch as Dick Stockton and Ron Darling take us through this year’s class and how it ranks among the greats.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

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Once a year, tiny Cooperstown, New York becomes the most important sports town in America.  

The transformation occurs when baseball’s year class of historic greats is ceremoniously inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, forever cementing their status as heroes and ambassadors of our national pastime.

This year’s class is a truly remarkable one. It features two 300-game winners, a member of the 500-home run club and three managers with eight World Series rings between them.

Here is the rundown of all the information you need to check out the induction ceremony.

2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony

Where: Clark Sports Center, Cooperstown, New York

When: Sunday, July 27

TV: MLB Network

Live Stream: www.baseballhall.org 

Rolling Stone‘s Dan Epstein made an excellent case regarding how this Hall of Fame class should resonate with today’s baseball fan:

And unlike last year, when the Hall inducted a class made up entirely of guys who died before America even entered World War II, all six of these gents made their HOF bones during the ’80s, ’90s and ’00s. In other words, they’re ours; if you’re a baseball fan of legal drinking age, you must at some point have rooted for (or against) these guys, while witnessing and debating and marveling at their respective accomplishments in real time.

While every member of this class is a bona-fide baseball hero, here’s a primer on the accomplishments of a few key inductees.

Greg Maddux

Greg Maddux was one of the game’s smartest pitchers, thumbing his way to 355 wins and an astonishing career 3.16 ERA. 

The numbers during his run of four consecutive Cy Young Awards are a beauty to behold, even in table form.

His control of the ball and mastery of the strike zone were nearly unparalleled in baseball history. In 5008.1 innings pitched, Maddux gave up just 999 walks. He made a fine living painting the black with his array of darting fastballs and change-ups.

According to Maddux, the Hall of Fame call hasn’t changed his day-to-day existence.

“Not really,” he said, via the Chicago Tribune‘s Paul Sullivan (subscription required). “Still take the trash out.”

There are a number of wonderful nuggets to be found in Maddux’s career statistics. He recorded a stolen base at the age of 42 with the San Diego Padres. Not bad for a pitcher in his 23rd season of pro baseball.

This is certainly a big weekend for Braves fans, as four of the inductees have been involved with the team at some point in their careers. It’s tough to stratify the greatness of this class, but Maddux just might be the most impressive of them all.

Frank Thomas

The Big Hurt.

One of the great nicknames in all of sports belongs to one of baseball’s all-time mashers. Thomas amassed 521 home runs and 1,704 RBI in a mind-blowing 19-year career.

The two-time MVP put up eye-popping numbers throughout the 1990s and 2000s, thanks to a laser-sharp focus (.301 career batting average) and an imposing physical presence at the plate. 

Perhaps the biggest shock of Thomas’ career is that he made only five All-Star teams, despite hitting over 30 home runs in a season nine times.

Everyone talks about Thomas’ prodigious power but former teammate Paul Konerko noted he had a truly sublime swing.

“Most people look at the size and strength, but that’s really secondary,” Konerko said, via the Chicago Tribune‘s Paul Sullivan. “His swing was really good and just designed to be more for average, not for power. But with his size and strength, it turns into more than that.”

Thomas was a terror right up until the very end of his career, mashing 39 home runs at the age of 38 in his first season with the Oakland Athletics and another 26 dingers with the Toronto Blue Jays the very next year.

Joe Torre

You may not like Joe Torre, but you can’t argue with his success as a manager. 

Torre led the New York Yankees to four World Series titles in the 1990s, commandeering the likes of Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada. His Yankees made the playoffs in each of his 12 years in charge.

Brad Horn, the Hall’s vice president of communications and education, believes Torre could bring a huge crowd to Cooperstown. Via MLB.com’s Paul Hagen:

And here in New York state, Joe Torre is about as popular a figure as they come when it comes to baseball. We feel like many Yankees fans could just drive over for the day just to celebrate Joe Torre’s election. It just has the right recipe for a very large weekend here in Cooperstown.

Torre didn’t have quite as much success as a manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers at the end of his coaching career, nor did he look like a future member of the Hall after stints with the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals. No matter, as his legacy is firmly intact thanks to his accomplishments with the Yankees.

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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America thought it was fixing a problem.

Instead, with one swift, sweeping act of judgement it revealed its true nature—the BBWAA, at its core, is nothing more than a frightened dictator.

By releasing a statement that Dan Le Batard would be banned for giving his vote to Deadspin, the BBWAA flaunted its power to show the baseball world that its word is final, to cast fear into the eyes of anyone who even thinks of rebelling against it.

The voting for the National Baseball Hall of Fame is a deeply flawed and broken process. From the voting limit of 10 players to the vague criteria and lack of leadership the Hall has shown regarding players in the steroid era to even the composition of the voting body itself, the cracked and antiquated process cries out for a change. 

Here’s what Le Batard had to say about it on Deadspin:

I don’t think I’m any more qualified to determine who is Hall of Fame-worthy than a fan who cares about and really knows baseball. In fact, many people analyzing baseball with advanced metrics outside of mainstream media are doing a better job than mainstream media, and have taught us some things in recent years when we were behind. In other words, just because we went to journalism school and covered a few games, just because accepted outlets gave us their platform and power, I don’t think we should have the pulpit to ourselves in 2014 that way we did in 1936.

Baseball is always reticent to change, but our flawed voting process needs remodeling in a new media world. Besides, every year the power is abused the way I’m going to be alleged to abuse it here. There’s never been a unanimous first-ballot guy? Seriously? If Ruth and Mays and Schmidt aren’t that, then what is? This year, someone is going to leave one of the five best pitchers ever off the ballot. Suck it, Greg Maddux.

Bottom line: The system is broken. If you couldn’t tell that by players such as Jacque Jones, J.T. Snow, Armando Benitez and Kenny Rogers receiving votes, then maybe the Deadspin vote is the revolutionary spark to reform the voting process. 

Le Batard’s vote was a mockery of the Hall of Fame’s voting process—this was the very point he was trying to make. But even so, it wasn’t Le Batard’s vote that kept surefire Hall of Famer Craig Biggio out of the Hall for the second straight year, but rather the voters who mailed in blank ballots out of protest. Who committed the crime here: Those who deliberately chose not to vote, or the writer who allowed himself to be made a pariah in order to demonstrate this to us?

Le Batard decided that enacting change to a broken process was more important than sitting idly—for this, I respect him. He was willing to break a rule and pay the price for it in exchange for the possibility of reform. In battle, it’s always the front lines that endure the harshest casualties. 

By swatting him away, the BBWAA proved Le Batard’s point for him—its chokehold on this broken system is about power. And like all dictators, it fears losing its power. 

One writer was brave enough to expose this. Regardless of how you feel about his methods or his ballot, if you can recognize the flaws in the voting you can appreciate the guts it took to put himself on the front lines of reform.

Winston Churchill once said, “You see these dictators on their pedestals, surrounded by the bayonets of their soldiers and the truncheons of their police…yet in their hearts there is unspoken fear. They are afraid of words and thoughts: words spoken abroad, thoughts stirring at home—all the more powerful because forbidden—terrify them. A little mouse of thought appears in the room, and even the mightiest potentates are thrown into panic.” 

Le Batard is the first mouse to enter into this room. He won’t be the last.

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What makes a Hall of Famer?

That’s a question that many in the baseball world will be pondering, discussing and, no doubt, debating when the latest round of Hall of Fame ballots are announced Wednesday, Jan. 8.

And yet, that question is more or less unanswerable, because there are so many ways to approach it. The concept of being a Hall of Famer is subjective—it depends on the voter, obviously—but over the years, it’s become more and more objective, more and more of a definable identity.

That’s why, at some point along the way, certain numbers like 3,000 hits, 500 home runs and 300 wins became standards or benchmarks that needed to be met or at least approached in order to enter the Hall of Fame.

But those milestones are nothing other than constructs in place simply because of the rarity with which they’ve been achieved. After all, in the 100-plus years of modern baseball history, only 28 players have ever reached 3,000 hits, only 25 have 500 homers and only 24 have 300 wins.

And yet, there are 208 total players in the Hall of Fame.

In other words, there never was, is or will be a “magic number” that automatically earns a player enshrinement. Who’s to say that a specific statistic should be the deciding factor in whether a player is in or out?

Certainly, though, categories like hits, homers and wins aren’t the best measures anymore.

With the rise and growth of sabermetrics over the past 30-plus years, baseball as a whole has gotten much, much smarter. That doesn’t mean evaluating the sport and those who play it isn’t still an ongoing challenge and debate.

While it’s undoubtedly better to weigh newer numbers that help to better compare players across different generations, eras and run-scoring environments—the sport does, in fact, change from time to time—there still isn’t a catch-all number that guarantees a place in Cooperstown. Nor should there be, really.

That in mind, here’s a batch of new-age metrics and statistics—along with rough target Hall of Fame standards—that might better serve as markers for determining whether a player is worthy of consideration, if not enshrinement. Because it’s about a lot more than one number.

*To be clear, this is aimed strictly at on-field performance. While topics like amphetamines, steroids or any other so-called performance-enhancing drugs are considerations for a large portion of voters and fans of the Hall of Fame, they won’t be considered here.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

WAR has its share of detractors and critics, and it’s not even calculated the same way by sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

It’s still one of the best metrics for evaluating performance—and Hall-worthiness—because it makes it possible to compare all players (both position players and pitchers), all eras (from the Deadball Era through the Steroids Era) and all aspects of the sport (hitting, pitching, defense, base running, etc.) in one fell swoop.

Although FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR) don’t have the exact same under-the-hood formula for WAR, perusing the career leaders in the category in both fWAR and bWAR shows that the sweet spot for becoming a legitimate candidate for Cooperstown is somewhere around 60 WAR.

That’s not to say that coming up short means the Hall is out of reach. WAR is a counting statistic, meaning it’s accumulated over a number of years.

That’s why it helps to examine some rate statistics, which can be better indicators of dominance over a five- or eight- or 10-year stretch.

Like these.

Adjusted On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS+)

In short, this is a newer, better version of the traditional OPS. Adjusted OPS+ is better simply because—that’s right—it adjusts for league average and park effects.

That makes it much easier to compare a hitter’s offensive performance from 1938 to 1968 to 2008, or from hitter-friendly Coors Field to pitcher-friendly Petco Park in 2013.

Essentially, the statistic is built around 100 as the average, and any point above or below 100 is a percentage point above or below league average. For example, Miguel Cabrera’s OPS+ of 187 in 2013 means he was a whopping 87 percent better than average.

By Hall of Fame standards, an OPS+ in the neighborhood of 120 to 130 is enough to get a long look, depending on how much of a player’s game was based around merely offense.

Weighted Runs Created (wRC+)

Similar to OPS+ in many ways, wRC+ is another offense-only measure that adjusts for league and park averages. It also is based around 100 as the average, with each point above equal to a run above average.

The difference is that where OPS+ is merely an advanced version of conventional OPS, wRC+ is a more all-encompassing statistic that weighs elements beyond the batter’s box, like baserunning. To make things a bit easier and all-encompassing, wRC+ converts offensive aspects into a baseball basic—runs.

A wRC+ around 130, going by FanGraphs, merits Cooperstown candidacy for most hitters.

Adjusted Earned Run Average Plus (ERA+)

In case the point isn’t clear just yet, ERA+ is another metric that covers league and park adjustments. And just like OPS+ and wRC+, it’s also based around 100 as average.

After all, if the past two or three seasons of pitching domination have proved anything, it’s that a 3.50 ERA in 2013 is a heck of a lot different—and worse—than a 3.50 ERA in 2001.

Once again, translating to Hall of Fame criteria, an ERA+ north of 120 often is where the conversation begins.

Conclusion

When weighing each of these specific stats, the important thing to remember is the big picture. It bears repeating, again: One number does not a Hall of Famer make.

As pointed out above, there are players who don’t reach these standards in one or more of the above metrics (or even more conventional ones) who are in the Hall of Fame. Similarly, there are players who fit into certain criteria mentioned who aren’t in Cooperstown and might never be.

What’s interesting about three of the four stats cited—the adjusted ones: OPS+, wRC+ and ERA+—is that a Hall of Fame resume typically starts somewhere in the 120 to 130 range. In other words, being roughly 20 to 30 percent above league average in many cases is a good starting point for the Hall.

Of course, all sorts of factors and statistics should be considered, including counting numbers (WAR, hits, homers, strikeouts, etc.), rate numbers (OPS+, ERA+, WHIP, etc.), awards and honors (like All-Star Games, MVPs and Cy Youngs), moments and achievements (including memorable performances and postseason success), and even the “sniff test,” which is more or less an initial gut reaction.

Even after evaluating all of the above, arguments will ensue. That might be seen as a problem to some, but it’s also what makes the question “What makes a Hall of Famer?” something to ask—and ponder, discuss and debate—every single year.

Statistics referenced in this article come from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball; check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

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The National Baseball Hall of Fame is a sensitive and controversial topic, regardless of which player, era or concept is up for discussion. As the baseball community reacts to the 2014 induction list, one thing is certain: At some point, a designated hitter will be inducted into Cooperstown.

When that day arrives, former Seattle Mariners great Edgar Martinez should be the man to carry the torch into baseball’s hallowed hallways. 

After researching the respective careers of the top designated hitters in baseball history, Martinez and David Ortiz, it’s clear which player should be the first in Cooperstown. The voting public may react differently over the next 10 years, but the facts are undeniably in the favor of the currently eligible Martinez.

With no disrespect to current Red Sox star David Ortiz, the idea of Big Papi paving the way for designated hitters in the Hall of Fame is backwards. After all, it was Martinez who redefined offense at the position, dominated American League pitching for years before Ortiz’s ascension and put up staggering numbers that few hitters in baseball history have ever matched.

Before breaking down why Martinez is deserving of induction in Cooperstown, this disclaimer is necessary in the interest of clarity: David Ortiz is on the path to the Hall of Fame, regardless of where the numbers and facts currently stand. If he continues to mash AL East pitching over the next few seasons, his accolades will be too hard to ignore for the BBWAA voters.

Of course, Edgar Martinez’s numbers should be too hard to ignore now.

In baseball history, only 19 hitters with at least 5,000 career at-bats, regardless of position, have posted a career slash line of at least .300/.400/.500. Edgar Martinez is one of those hitters. The names on the following chart comprise the most dominant offensive performers in the history of the sport. 

Currently, the average Hall of Fame hitter has produced approximately 69 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. Martinez, despite making his name as a designated hitter after injuries and failed attempts at playing the infield during his youth, retired with a career WAR of 68.1, virtually identical to the average HOF mark.

Over the years, my stance on Martinez’s candidacy has shifted. Reliving his career through statistics, video and columns from his playing days has provided clarity on the kind of impact performer he truly was for the Seattle Mariners. That impact, similar to what Ortiz has meant to the Boston Red Sox, can’t be overlooked.

After acknowledging Martinez’s rightful place in Cooperstown, the topic shifts to his place among all-time DH’s, specifically in reference to the path Ortiz is currently blazing through the sport. 

Let’s take a look at four key areas (peak, late-career dominance, October success and total value) to assess why Martinez, not Ortiz, is the rightful king of the DH throne. 

When at their respective bests, both Martinez and Ortiz were middle-of-the-order stars, run producers and nightmares for opposing pitchers. Although a dip in Ortiz’s performance, followed up by a current resurgence, made comparing their six-year peaks difficult, the numbers don’t lie: During their best, Martinez had more of an impact than Ortiz.

While a fair argument can be made that Martinez’s best years coincided with one of the biggest offensive booms in history, OPS-plus, or adjusted OPS, takes that into account. Even after resetting the league standards, Martinez was 12 percent better than Ortiz during their most dominant seasons.

This piece, specifically when comparing career excellence of both designated hitters, produced some surprising numbers. None of which was more eye-opening than the perception vs. reality look at how each hitter performed during the late stages of their career.

Admittedly, Ortiz’s most recent success, capped off by another dominant run to a World Series ring, led me to believe that his late-career dominance was pushing him past Edgar Martinez. As Ortiz ages, he seems to get better and better. In a twist of irony, Martinez did the same. In fact, he was even better from age 35-37 than Ortiz has been. 

If there’s an area where Ortiz closes the gap, in a significant way, it lies in October. Over the course of his career in Boston, David Ortiz has surpassed Reggie Jackson to become the true Mr. October. That feat, while difficult to parlay within a discussion of regular-season dominance, is part of Ortiz’s ledger, undoubtedly part of the reason he’ll eventually land in Cooperstown.

Martinez, despite a few gigantic postseason series, including the 1995 ALDS that put the Mariners franchise on the national map, didn’t come close to replicating the success that Ortiz put forth when championships were on the line. If we call Martinez a good postseason performer, it’s necessary to call Ortiz an elite October hitter. 

Finally, there’s the subject of value. Although Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs have varying degrees of WAR and calculating the true value of players, their respective systems paint a very similar picture of the two DHs in question. Without a doubt, Martinez provided more value than Ortiz. In fact, the gap isn’t even close.  

To be fair, Ortiz’s career isn’t over. With the way he’s hit over the last few years, projecting three or four more years of value onto his career ledger isn’t outlandish. Yet, even if he can produce 3.8 WAR per year (his average value over the last two seasons) for the next three years, his career mark will still be well below the average hitter in the Hall of Fame.  

Depending on your take on postseason accolades, Ortiz is likely poised to parlay his championship rings, Mr. October moniker and importance as a central figure in Red Sox history into a future Cooperstown induction ceremony. If, say, Ortiz retires within 10 WAR of Edgar Martinez, the pomp and circumstance around his fame and October genius will even the playing field. 

If that occurs, Ortiz will have done enough to catch Edgar Martinez as the greatest DH ever. When that day arrives, Ortiz should join Martinez in Cooperstown, not be forced to knock down the door for a hitter of Martinez’s caliber. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball. 

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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America will announce the 2014 MLB Hall of Fame class on Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. ET, as this year’s class of candidates will look to join managers Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa and Bobby Cox in earning enshrinement.

A total of 19 newcomers join 17 holdovers from last year’s ballot to make up this year’s candidates, and after no one earned induction last year, we could see a number of players join the all-time greats in Cooperstown this time around.

So here is a complete rundown of the 2014 candidates, as well as my final predictions for how the voting will shake out and who will wind up making up the 2014 MLB Hall of Fame class.

*Vote total predictions based on 569 possible ballots, the number cast last season, though more are possible.

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