Tag: baseball prospects

Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez Gets Called Up: Who Are Other Top Minor League Prospects?

I’m sure you’ve heard the Pirates have finally decided to call up third baseman Pedro Alvarez.  In the last month Neil Walker, Brad Lincoln, Jose Tabata, and now Alvarez have gotten the call.

The future starts now in Pittsburgh.

Who else is left in Triple-A who’s young enough to be a prospect and actually playing well enough to get serious consideration for a promotion to the show? 

Here are my thoughts, starting with the Triple-A International League.

 

Offensive Prospects

As might be expected, most of the top Triple-A offensive performers so far in 2010 who have not been promoted to the majors are the usual Quad-A players who are too old to get a shot, unless some people get hurt at the major league level. 

In the International League, these guys include Dan Johnson (age 30, his 1.011 OPS is currently second in the IL, after C Carlos Santana, who was recently promoted to the Indians), Mike Hessman (age 32, .985 OPS, good for third place), and Chris Richard (age 36, .952 OPS, good for fourth).

I have a soft spot in my heart for Quad-A players, because they’re the ones who give Triple-A ball the level of play necessary to produce young stars and replacement level players when someone gets hurt at the major league level. 

But enough about the geezers—let’s get on to the prospects.

 

3B Dayan Viciedo (age 21, White Sox)

Viciedo looks to be the best, closest-to-major-league ready position prospect left in the International League after the promotion of Pedro Alvarez.  The ChiSox signed him in 2008 to a four-year, $10 million deal as a free agent after he defected from Cuba.

Viciedo is a huge man, listed at 5’11″ and 240 lbs already, which kind of makes me wonder if he really is only 21.  However old he is, he’s close to being major-league ready.  His .843 OPS is good for 15th in the IL, and he’s hit 13 HRs and 27 extra base hits so far in 2010.

The biggest concern with Viciedo is his horrible eight walks and 52 strikeouts.  He’s not going to succeed for long in the majors with a Ks-to-walks ratio like that.

Viciedo definitely needs more time at Triple-A, but if he improves on his current numbers, there’s a good chance he’ll be promoted before the September call-ups.

 

Catcher Tyler Flowers (age 24, White Sox) 

Flowers has a fine (for a catcher) .825 OPS in the IL, but he is batting only .228.  He’s close to being major league ready, but he needs to pull his Triple-A batting average up over .250 or .260 before he’ll be ready for a promotion.

 

SS Eduardo Nunez (age 23, Yankees)

His .322 batting average is good for second in the IL, and he has a fine (for a middle infielder) on-base percentage of .362.  He had a strong year at Double-A Trenton in 2009.

Of course, Nunez is stuck behind Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano in New York, so you have to think there’s a good chance Nunez will end up as a trade chip around the August 1st trade deadline as the Yankees look to plug holes for the stretch drive.

 

CF Michael Brantley (age 23, Indians)

Brantley’s .385 OBP is good for ninth in the IL, behind numerous Quad-A players and true prospects who’ve already been promoted to the majors.

Brantley got a cup of coffee from the Indians earlier this year in which he hit only .156.  However, that was in only 32 ABs, which isn’t particularly indicative of anything.

With Grady Sizemore’s season ended prematurely by injury/surgery, the Indians are playing Trevor Crowe in center.  Crowe is a former first-round draft pick (14th in 2005), but he’s three years older than Brantley, and doesn’t look like a future star.

My guess would be that once the Indians start trading away veterans, Brantley gets called up again at sometime between the All-Star break and August 1st.

 

Pitching Prospects

Identifying pitching prospects tends to be a little more complicated than identifying position players, because pitchers with live arms sometimes suddenly find their command or develop a new pitch, which makes them potential major league regulars even if they are already in the mid- or late-20s.

Here are some of the young starters in the International League having fine seasons.

 

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (age 23, Rays)

Hellickson is young and pitching great.  He’s 8-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a line of 81.2 IP, 71 hits, three HRs, and 20 walks and 84 Ks.  He looks ready to be a major league pitcher right now.

 

LHP Aroldis Chapman (age 22, Reds)

He’s pitching well, but I don’t think he’s ready yet.  He has a 4.22 ERA and 70 Ks in 59.2 IP, but he’s been wildly inconsistent, having starts in the last 10 in which he’s given up six, eight, and seven earned runs in five or fewer innings pitched.

Chapman still does not appear to have major league command, having allowed 36 walks to date. 

If I were the Reds, I’d keep him at Triple-A Louisville until the September call-ups or until he can put together five strong starts in a row with low walk totals, whichever comes first.

 

RHP Ivan Nova (age 23, Yankees)

Nova is 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA and a line of 71 IP, 73 hits, 5 HRs, and 25 walks allowed and 53 Ks.  He made two appearances for the Yankees earlier this season and did not allow a run in three innings pitched.

Nova’s close to being ready, but it remains to be seen whether the Yankees have the patience to try to develop him or instead use him as a trade chip.

 

LHP Travis Wood (age 23, Reds)

Wood is 4-5 with a 3.56 ERA, but what I like about him, aside from his tender age, is his 81 Ks and only 20 walks allowed in 83.1 Triple-A innings pitched this year. 

He’s yet another fine IL pitcher only four or five consecutive strong starts from a major league job.

 

RHP Dan Hudson (age 23, White Sox)

Hudson is 8-3 with a 3.91 ERA and excellent ratios, including 86 Ks and only 21 walks allowed in 71.1 IP.  His ERA is little high because he’s served up 10 gopher balls.

 

There have been some other pitchers like Josh Tomlin, Matt Maloney, Carlos Torres, and Todd Redmond, who have pitched well in the IL this year and could be called up if they get hot in the second half. 

However, I think I’ve captured the most promising prospects in terms of age and current performance.

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Daniel Nava: Indy MVP And GBL Star Makes Boston Red Sox History

The Golden Baseball League seems to have this habit of generating headlines in a sport dominated by A-Rod, Derek Jeter, and the New York Yankees.

On Saturday afternoon, during the Fox Saturday Game of the Week, the Boston Red Sox were playing host to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nothing out of the ordinary, except that the Phillies are in dangerous team slump where hitting and pitching have seemingly affected everyone.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, after being counted out of the playoff race through the first couple of months of the 2010 season, are lurking in the weeds of the American League East.

David Ortiz can be a fan favorite depending on the mood of the fans, Dice-K is hit or miss, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are holding the staff together, the heart and soul, Dustin

Pedroia is having a down year, compared to his standards, and speedy center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury appears to be out for an undetermined amount of time with a recurring rib injury.

What we have here looks like the perfect scenario for the new underdogs of the division, and when your stud center fielder goes down, call-up someone from the minors.

In this case, Daniel Nava’s journey to history is not as ordinary as one’s struggle through minors. 

Nava turned disappointment into MVP numbers to become one of the best prospects that no one has heard of.

Nava’s 2006 senior season at Santa Clara University, was what you can call outstanding: a .395 average, 37 RBI, .476 OBP and .530 SLG.  Unfortunately for him, that did not get him drafted, setting of a chain of events, a string of ups and downs, culminating in taking the first pitch he saw in the Majors and belting a grand slam.

Unfortunately, I only caught the last two innings of the game but was thrilled too see his family in stands recording every moment.

Once leaving Santa Clara, Nava tried his hand at independent league ball, specifically the Chico Outlaws of the independent Golden Baseball League.

Nava, who was recently interviewed by Mike Andrews of SoxProspects.com , said he attempted to play for the Chico Outlaws not because they were close to home, but because they were the only ones who had contacted him.

 

Despite not playing in 2006, in part to being cut by the Chico squad, Nava made the team in ’07 and put together one of the best seasons in GBL history. In 72 games, Nava batted .371, with 12 home runs, 59 RBI, had an OBP of over .470, and slugged nearly.630.  Over one-third of his 95 hits went for extra bases.

The baseball world finally began to take notice of this former Bronco.

 

 

Nava became the first GBL rookie to win MVP honors and Baseball America ranked him as the No. 1 Indy prospect in America.

Two years in the Red Sox organization has proved all the naysayers wrong.

 

A combined .345 batting average at three different classes prior to ’10 meant a promotion to the big club was only a matter of time, and, in typical Nava fashion, he let his play and ability speak for itself.

This article can also be found on The GM’s Perspective

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MLB Draft: If You Pitch, They Will Come

With the Washington Nationals’ publicity machine on overdrive, baseball in D.C. could be at an all-time high.

Bryce Harper, as you all know by now, is christened as the next, next, next big thing.

Stephen Strasburg and his 14 strikeout debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates lived up to everything it was meant to be and more!

Obviously, two No. 1 picks will get the glory, we all know that, but what about the guys getting drafted in the 20th, 30th, and 40th rounds.

Myself, being from Canada and going to school in Nebraska from 1997-2001, I thought baseball in Canada had reached its pinnacle during those years. Yet in 2010, baseball in Canada is still growing, not yet reaching its ceiling.

There is the stigma that if you do not go to a big time Division I NCAA school, no one— let alone Major League scouts—would find you.

Luck for the baseball world, “bird dogs,” scouts, and anyone affiliated with MLB, NCAA, NAIA, or independent baseball will locate skill when necessary.

In 2010, technology is at its peak (for now).  We have up-to-the-second updates, news is at our fingertips, and Twitter and Facebook is used by nearly everyone located on planet Earth.

What does all this mean?

A Pensacola Pelican, a member of the Indy American Association, with 4.1 innings under his belt was taken by the Los Angeles Angels, with pick number 624.

To quote one of the all-time baseball movies starring baseball enthusiast and indy team owner, Kevin Costner, “If you build it, they will come.”

In this instance, “If you pitch, they will come,” and find you!

Kevin Johnson, has just completed his senior season with NCAA Division II University of West Florida—and Kevin Johnson is a good pitcher!  How good?

In his four years of high school, he compiled a 34-2 record with a career ERA of 0.77 and a single season record of 0.34!

All-Conference selections during his freshman and sophomore seasons at Alabama Southern Community College signified a time for better competition.  Follow that up with a 13-6 record, nearly 200 innings pitched, a 4.15 ERA, and compiling 148 strikeouts with West Florida.

Obviously, every player hopes to get drafted. In actuality, it’s a numbers game.

Have you caught a scout’s attention? Are your numbers so mind-blowing, that you can’t help but get drafted?

So many imperatives play a factor in this process that when you hear your name called it is relief, it is excitement, it is years and years of work that have paid off, leaving you where you started; with another challenge!

For Kevin Johnson, is MLB glory in his future? We may not know for five or 10 years.

However, scouts’ projections are not always right.

A 62nd-round pick might turn out to be the most prolific hitting catcher in our or any generation—Mike Piazza.  Maybe you can be a Craig Breslow, a 26th-round pick that has now appeared in 180 games and pieced together a career ERA under 2.80.

According to Johnson, he will continue to impress with what got him the attention of the Angels and probably many others.

“It’s going to be a different atmosphere because it’s going to be out in Arizona,” Johnson said. “I’ve never been to Arizona before, so I’ll have to adjust to it. It’s going to be a fun experience. As long as I throw strikes and let the defense work, I think I can move up in the organization.”

This article can also be found on The GM’s Perspective.

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2010 MLB Draft Results: Blue Jays Reload With an Army of Pitchers

With four picks in the first round and the first compensation round, the Blue Jays loaded up with a collection of exciting pitching prospects.

Deck McGuire at No. 11, Aaron Sanchez at No. 34, Noah Syndergaard at No. 38 and Asher Wojciechowski  (pictured) with the 41st pick all were drafted by Toronto early in the 2010 MLB Draft.

With that in mind, it would be logical to assume GM Alex Anthopoulos and Scouting Director Andrew Tinnish would have focused on position players as the next round(s) commenced yesterday.

You know what they say about those who assume.

Three of the Jays next six picks were pitchers, and of the 36 players the Jays selected in the first 30 rounds, 21 were pitchers.

This draft imbalance actually makes sense when you look at the state of Toronto’s pitching depth beyond the starting rotation. Aside from Kyle Drabek and Chad Jenkins, there isn’t a projectable MLB pitcher in the system.

Say what you will about the likes of Brad Mills and Robert Ray, but they are at best fringe prospects. Counting on them to produce for us on the big club just doesn’t make sense.

However, the farm system is full of intriguing reliever/closer types with the likes of David Purcey, Zach Stewart and Tim Collins leading the way.

Digging even further into the pitchers Toronto just drafted, its interesting to note that nine of the 21 are lefties. Considering that statistically righties outnumber lefties by almost two-to-one, selecting so many southpaws provides an intriguing insight into the Jays’ draft strategy.

Another interesting aspect of this draft class is the number of high schoolers in it.

One of the first things Anthopoulos did when he took over the GM duties was to triple the scouting staff. Now with AA and Tinnish conducting their first draft together, the evidence of the changes this new philosophy will bring are clear with the selection of 22 high schoolers among their 36 picks.

Some draftees of note*:

No. 61 Griffin Murphy, LHP, Redlands East Valley HS, California:

A tall left-hander with a fastball that touches 93 mph, Murphy also possesses a hard-breaking curve and a solid changeup.

His command has been an issue in the past, but the 18-year-old’s three average-to-above-average pitches made him too difficult to pass on. Murphy has a delivery reminiscent to that of the Angels’ Scott Kazmir.

No. 69 Kellen Sweeney, 3B, Jefferson HS, Iowa:

The brother of A’s outfielder Ryan Sweeney, Kellen figures to be a solid gap-to-gap hitter with above average plate discipline. While he primarily played at shortstop at Jefferson HS, the Jays have listed him as a third baseman.

Toronto hopes Sweeney, who is not an above average defender, can polish his defensive skills and remain in the infield. One red flag is that he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009.

No. 80 Justin Nicolino, LHP, University HS, Florida:

The 6-foot-3 southpaw has an average fastball that sits between 89-92 mph, coupled with an average curveball and an above-average change up.

The RivalsHigh prospect ranking had Nicolino 84th among the top 100 high schoolers. The left-hander has committed to play baseball at Virginia this fall.

This pick was obtained due to the departure of current Red Sox shortstop Marco Scutaro.

No. 93 Christopher Hawkins, 3B, North Gwinnett HS, Georgia:

Much like Sweeney, Hawkins played primarily at shortstop in HS, but will be listed at 3B in the Jays organization.

Hawkins has plus speed, with a little bit of pop. He should hit for a high average, as he hits the ball with conviction to all parts of the diamond. He has the upside to be a solid Major League player.

No. 156 Dickie Thon, SS, Academia Perpetuo Socorro HS, Puerto Rico:

Many thought Thon would be selected earlier in the Draft due to his strong showing in the Puerto Rico Skills Showcase this spring.

To go along with his baseball bloodlines (Dad, Dickie Thon Sr. had a 14-year MLB career), Thon is also an outstanding athlete with a smooth swing and slick glove.

The high schooler has committed to play baseball at Rice University this fall.

 

The Jays also selected three Canadians on the draft’s second day: junior college outfielder Marcus Knecht of Toronto, a compensation pick in the third round; high school outfielder Dalton Pompey of Mississauga, Ont., in the 16th round; and Texas Tech left-hander Jay Johnson of Sussex Corner, N.B., in the 28th round.

The potential jewel of these Canucks is Knecht. The 6’1″ left fielder, who grew up playing triple-A hockey against current National Hockey League stars John Tavares and Steven Stamkos (who was drafted by the Brewers in the 23rd round in 2008), was projected as the 50th best prospect by the Perfect Game scouting service. He could have gone Monday night, but slipped to the Blue Jays at the 113th selection.

And finally, the Jays may have had the steal of the late rounds with the selection of 3B Kris Bryant in the 18th round.

Many draft experts suggested Bryant was worthy of a pick in the first five rounds, with a real good head on his shoulders. Although his defense needs some fine-tuning, the youngster hit 22 home runs this season, the third most in Nevada history.

The 6’5″, 210-pounder was also named Nevada’s Gatorade Baseball Player of the year for the 2009-10 season, in which he had a .484 batting average with 22 home runs, 51 RBIs and a 1.312 slugging percentage.

But before we get too excited about any of these players, we need to remember that at least half these kids will never play a single game in the majors and perhaps just a handful of them will play more than 100 games.

Nonetheless, it looks like AA and Tinnish really did the extra leg work it takes when scouting high school players. Now the challenge of signing these kids begins.

Speaking of which, John Paxton and Jake Eliopoulos, the two Canadians we drafted last year at 37th and 68th overall respectively who refused to sign, had massive falls in this year’s draft.

Paxon fell to 132nd (Mariners) and Eliopoulos to 472nd (Dodgers).

I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

for a detailed look at the Jays first round picks, read this .

*scouting reports provided by mlb.com

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2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?

Photo credit: Gallery 2 Images

The first round of Major League Baseball’s 2010 first-year player draft featured many unexpected surprises, including the position at which Bryce Harper was drafted.

As expected, the Washington Nationals made the 17-year-old Junior College standout the No. 1 overall pick Monday night. Unexpectedly, they selected the switch hitter as an outfielder instead of a catcher, the position at which Harper has played the most.

Ultimately, the Nationals decided Harper’s 80 raw power , excellent bat speed and strong arm would play best in right field. Keeping him at catcher would be extremely risky and delay his major-league debut by at least three years. 

Though this decision potentially hurts his long-term value to fantasy teams, it opens the door for a possible big-league debut in September 2011.

While his first taste of the majors is more likely to come in 2012, the Vegas native won’t become fantasy-relevant at least until the 2013 season at the tender age of 20.

Although Harper’s astounding talent is hard to ignore, (23 homers, .417/.509/.917 triple-slash in 180 regular-season at-bats in 2010) he’s got a long journey ahead of him.

Still, keeper and dynasty league managers will fight for his rights in drafts next season, as Harper has the ability to join the likes of Ken Griffey Jr ., Andruw Jones , Miguel Cabrera and Jason Heyward as a fantasy-relevant 20-year-old with Hall-of-Fame upside.

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MLB Prospect Report: Florida Marlins OF Mike Stanton’s 2010 Fantasy Value

In addition to the hype surrounding the MLB draft on Monday night and Stephen Strasburg’s Major League debut on Tuesday night, fantasy owners now have Mike Stanton’s long-awaited arrival to look forward to.

Stanton’s absence from Double-A Jacksonville’s lineup on Sunday almost certainly confirms this, as the young outfielder is expected to join the Marlins on Tuesday in Philadelphia.

Fantasy managers have known about Stanton for a while, but his expected call-up begs the question: What will his fantasy impact be in 2010?

Before we can answer this, it’s important to understand just how good the 2007 second-round pick has been:

2008 (High-A): 468 at-bats, 89 runs, 26 doubles, three triples, 39 homers, 97 RBI, 153 strikeouts, 58 walks, .293/.381/.611.

2009 (High-A and Double-A): 479 at-bats, 76 runs, 24 doubles, five triples, 28 homers, 92 RBI, 144 strikeouts, 59 walks, .255/.341/.501.

While his power stroke dominated Minor League pitching in ‘08 and ‘09, Stanton has actually exceeded expectations in 2010:

2010 (Double-A): 190 at-bats, 41 runs, 12 doubles, two triples, 21 homers, 52 RBI, 53 strikeouts, 44 walks, .311/.441/.726.

Dave Winfield comparisons are plentiful, as all five of Stanton’s tools rate as solid-average or better. The 20-year-old has “light-tower power” and the ability to swipe 20 bases per season according to Baseball America , though he has yet to develop baserunning instincts.

BA also notes his tremendous work ethic and modest personality.

If there’s any reason to doubt Stanton, it’d be due to his high strikeout totals. Though his pitch recognition has improved, “he still gets caught guessing too much.” This will likely hamper his fantasy value for the rest of 2010.

It’s important to note, however, that the Marlins plan to give Stanton regular at-bats. This means Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, and Cody Ross are likely to split time among the remaining outfield positions.

Given Coghlan’s recent resurgence (six multi-hit games in his last seven contests), and Ross’s steady production (six HRs, 33 RBI, .300 average), Maybin (.225 average in 182 at-bats) likely stands to lose the most playing time in the near future.

Stanton is expected to bat seventh in Florida’s lineup, but could move up if his production warrants it.

Although Jason Heyward has become a top-50 player, you shouldn’t expect similar immediate success from the 20-year-old Stanton. He will undoubtedly display wicked power, but his batting average will likely limit his value.

In the long term, Stanton’s ceiling is higher than that of Ike Davis , but lower than Justin Smoak’s . Still, the Marlins outfielder has 40-HR potential, making him an exceptionally valuable commodity in all keeper/dynasty formats.

FBI Forecast: 325 at-bats, 40 runs, 13 HRs, 45 RBI, .260 batting average.

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Fantasy Baseball Prospect Tracker: Brett Wallace, Daniel Hudson and More

Last week we began updating the first group of prospects we’ve been tracking (click here to view), so let’s wrap that group up today (to view the first look at these players, click here ).  All stats are through Saturday.

 

Brett Wallace: Toronto Blue Jays, Third Base

Triple-A: .294 (57-194), 11 HR, 33 RBI, 30 R, 0 SB
Yes, it comes in the Pacific Coast League, but that shouldn’t discourage you.  The Blue Jays are surprisingly competing in the AL East, which makes you wonder just how long they can stay with a struggling Lyle Overbay in the lineup (despite his recent hot streak)? 

Wallace has hit a bit of a slump of late (.239, 0 HR, two RBI in his last 10 games), which may has helped delay his arrival.  The strikeouts are also a concern (51), but his BABIP is not that unrealistic (.339).  He may be a .260ish hitter in the Majors, but if he can hit with power, that’s something we can all live with.  (click here to view my preseason article on him).

 

Daniel Hudson: Chicago White Sox, Pitcher

Triple-A: 4.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 59 K, 5 W, 48.1 IP
He’s had a couple of terrible starts (9 ER in 1 IP, 5 ER in 5 IP), but overall he’s been solid.  With Freddy Garcia holding down the fifth starters spot, for now, we all know it’s just a matter of time before Hudson gets the call.  In deeper formats he certainly will have value so keep a close eye on him.  He was tremendous in his last start, striking out 11 over 8 shutout innings against Colorado (the team that trashed him for 9 ER in 1 IP).  That certainly is a good sign.  (click here for my in-depth article preseason article on him) 

 

Jesus Montero: New York Yankees, Catcher

Triple-A: .238 (35-147), 3 HR, 19 RBI, 17 R, 0 SB
The 20-year-old has struggled this season and the Yankees instead have given Francisco Cervelli, and rightfully so, the chance to be the full time catcher.  Montero has been making contact (27 K), so that shouldn’t be a concern.  He’s had some bad luck, with a .259 BABIP, and the power is still developing. 

He clearly needs more time to mature, so don’t look for him to make any potential impact in the majors until September if at all.  There has been talk that he’ll have to move out from behind the plate, but we’ll just have to wait and see what the Yankees do with him.

 

Peter Bourjos: Los Angeles Angels, Outfielder

Triple-A: .256 (40-156), 1 HR, 12 RBI, 22 R, 6 SB
His value is tied to his speed and in order to put it on full display he needs to get on base.  To date, he has just six walks…This is supposed to be a leadoff type hitter?  In his last 10 games he’s walked just once and stole two bases (came in the same game).

  Thought of as a potential sleeper source of stolen bases earlier in the season, he has basically played himself out of consideration at this point.  The Angels are set in the outfield, with Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Juan Rivera and they have Reggie Willets back, who fills virtually the same role Bourjos would.  We’ll continue to track Bourjos, but he needs to make some sweeping changes if he’s going to make an impact in 2010.

 

Martin Perez: Texas Rangers, Pitcher

Double-A: 5.26 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 39 K, 2 W, 37.2 IP
The 19-year-old has struggled terribly over his last three starts, allowing 15 ER over 12 innings of work.  He’s walked two or more batters in each of his last seven starts (a 5.6 BB/9).  Maybe the Rangers tried to push him a little too far, too fast, and at this point you have to think so. 

Don’t get discouraged, because the lefty is among the best pitching prospects in the game and still has the potential to turn it around and reach the majors as soon as the second half of the season.  I still think his ticket will be in the bullpen, however, limiting his potential value.  (For more on Perez, view my preseason article by clicking here )

 

Alex Liddi: Minnesota Twins, Third Base

Double-A: .267 (44-165), 4 HR, 28 RBI, 21 R, 2 SB
The Twins are in need of a long-term solution at 3B and while Liddi could provide it, it appears to be taking him some time to adjust to the upper levels of the minor leagues.  After hitting .345 with 23 HR and 104 RBI in ‘09, he has 0 HR and just 2 RBI over his last 10 games. 

The strikeouts are the biggest problem, with 42 Ks thus far.  It’s not a new problem, with 122 Ks in 493 AB last season, so this shouldn’t come a big surprise.

 

What are your thoughts on these prospects?  Who is the most likely to make an impact in 2010?  Which are you highest on?

For more looks at prospects, you can check out the following articles:

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Revisiting the 2007 MLB Draft: Three Years on, Who Came Out on Top?

The 2007 first year player draft was very pitcher-heavy, but with the exception of the No. 1 overall selection, some of the biggest names to come out of it were actually position players.

A total of 18 pitchers were called in the first round alone, led by Vanderbilt graduate David Price, but there was good overall depth in the draft, especially through the first three rounds.

How many GMs do you think are out there right now still kicking themselves that Jason Heyward fell to No. 14? How about the fact that one of the brightest pitching prospects in the game, Jordan Zimmerman, didn’t go at all in the first round? Did Florida hit the jackpot in Mike Stanton with the 76th overall selection?

With just one week to go until the 2010 draft, Bleacher Report looks back to see who came out on top this time three years ago.

Major League success and experience weighs the most here, with Minor League contributions and potential assessed from AAA down to single-A.

As always, feel free to let me know your thoughts.

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On the Farm: An In-Depth Milwaukee Brewers Prospect Watch

The Milwaukee Brewers have been a young team throughout the decade. Young players such as Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, and Corey Hart have been the core of the team during the franchise turnaround.

But with some of the key players getting older, Milwaukee will need a set of prospects to produce at the Big League level.

The following are the top twenty-five prospects, according to www.milbprospects.blogspot.com.

1 Alcides Escobar , SS , MIL
2 Brett Lawrie , 2B , MIL
3 Kentrail Davis , OF , MIL
4 Mat Gamel , 3B , MIL
5 Evan Anundsen , P , MIL
6 Jake Odorizzi , P , MIL
7 Caleb Gindl , OF , MIL
8 Eric Arnett , P , MIL
9 Jose Pena , OF , MIL
10 Mark Rogers , P , MIL
11 Jon Lucroy , C , MIL
12 Kyle Heckathorn , P , MIL
13 Angel Salome , C , MIL
14 Amaury Rivas , P , MIL
15 Cody Scarpetta , P , MIL
16 Max Walla , OF , MIL
17 Wily Peralta , P , MIL
18 Jeremy Jeffress , P , MIL
19 Maverick Lasker , P , MIL
20 Taylor Green , 3B , MIL
21 Eric Farris , 2B , MIL
22 Logan Schafer , OF , MIL
23 Mark Willinsky , P , MIL
24 Cutter Dykstra , OF , MIL
25 Zach Braddock , P , MIL

Alcides Escobar, Jon Lucroy, and Zach Braddock are all currently on the Brewers 25 man roster.

Escobar appears to have the shortstop position locked up for years. The team traded JJ Hardy to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez, signalling that their trust has been placed in the hands of the young shortstop from Venezuela.

Alcides’s glove is one of the best in the National League already. His double plays are crisp and he possesses a cannon to throw out the runner.

However, his plate discipline comes into question often. Escobar draws very few walks, which would be very helpful with his speed. He is currently tied for the NL lead in triples.

Second base may be where the biggest dilemma pops up. 2008 first round pick Brett Lawrie has shown that he has the tools to play for the Brewers, and it is just a matter of time before the Canadian gets the call.

But Rickie Weeks is the franchise’s second baseman. Lawrie is too valuable to get rid of, and he already switched from catcher to second base.

My prediction is that we will see him on the roster next season, then become the starter in 2012, while the Brewers get rid of Weeks. They could trade him for a much-needed young pitcher or possibly a center fielder or catcher. His contract expires at the end of 2010.

The key emphasis of the team is on a young arm—Eric Arnett and Jake Odorizzi.

Arnett was the team’s first round pick out of Indiana University in 2009. He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball, a sinker, a mediocre changeup, and the potential of a slider. One issue facing Arnett is his high pitch counts while with the Hoosiers. He is currently with Class A Wisconsin.

Odorizzi was the 32nd overall pick in 2008, a bit overshadowed by the selection of Lawrie (the Brewers received the supplementary pick as a result of losing Francisco Cordero). His velocity is about the same as Arnett’s. His slider is considered “nasty sometimes” according to one scout. His curveball can be his out pitch.

Look for both of these pitchers to be in the rotation by 2013, if not earlier. While surprising, the team could trade either one of them for a mid-season acquisition, just as they did in 2008 with Matt LaPorta.

At the catcher position, veterans have held the position for the longest of times. That may change soon, however. 27 year-old George Kottaras has shown good pop and an OBP over .400 as the backup-turned-starter this season. If the team is smart, they will keep him around next season as the minor league catching talent matures.

Jon Lucroy has been Kottaras’s backup ever since Gregg Zaun went down in mid-May. At only 23 years old, he has skills behind the plate that blend right in with the rest of the Big League backstops. He is an above-average hitting catcher, proving this with a single in his first MLB at bat.

Angel Salome has long been considered the top catching prospect, though his hype has dropped over the course of the past year. Salome will not make the team as a defensive catcher, but rather as a hitter. He hit .360 in 98 games with AA Huntsville in 2008. Over his minor league career, Angel is hitting .316.

Currently on a personal leave from baseball due to the birth of his child, expect to see Salome in September, but as a rarely-used catcher.

As for the bullpen, Braddock and John Axford are the two top prospects. Braddock was projected as the closer by 2013 by Brewers beat writer Tom Haudricourt. His slider is devastating and is his main pitch. Braddock has not given up a run yet in 2010.

The closer projection may have taken a different turn with the downfall of Trevor Hoffman. This, along with injuries, set up the table for John Axford. A 42nd round pick in 2005, Axford is only signed through 2010. The Brewers need to sign him this offseason to lock up the future shut down closer.

If Axford becomes the franchise’s closer, the Brewers may not keep Braddock. His talent could be used elsewhere as a closer, making more money than Milwaukee would pay him to set up for Axford.

Axford has appeared in seven games in 2010 after being a September call-up in 2009. He notched two saves in two attempts, striking out the side against Minnesota. His 97 mph fastball blows away batters. Axford has shown that he can be a dominant closer in only seven appearances. In addition to his pitching, his mustache has made him a fan favorite within a month.

Mat Gamel played in 61 games last season, hitting five home runs and batting .242. His power is his greatest asset. The Brewers may try to hide his weak glove, as they did with Ryan Braun, who struggled mightily at third base as a rookie. Gamel had a .885 fielding percentage in 2009.

Casey McGehee has solidified himself as a legitimate third baseman, currently leading the NL in RBI. The team would not want to lose their hidden gem, so Gamel is faced with a few options:

1) Move to right field, where his glove won’t be as big of a problem;

2) Get traded for a young pitcher;

3) Become a back-up third baseman.

The most interesting story is that of Jeremy Jeffress. The right hander, 22, has always had Major League-level talent with a hard fastball and a hard slider.

Drafted in the first round of the 2006, he was suspended for 50 games in 2007 for drug abuse. In 2008, he reached AA, struggled, and was sent back to A ball. Most recently, he tested positive for marijuana, receiving a 100 game suspension along with the knowledge that one more positive test would lead to a lifetime ban.

The Brewers still have hopes for the talented Jeffress, who is scheduled to return to baseball soon. But with good young pitchers around him, he will have to fight for his spot on a future team.

Other top prospects on the top 25 list that I did not mention specifically, include: Kentrail Davis, Kyle Heckathorn, Cutter Dykstra, Amaury Rivas, Cody Scarpetta, Max Walla, and Logan Schafer.

Here are some other prospects I am high on: OF D’Vontrey Richardson, P Tim Dillard, P Chuck Lofgren, and OF Lorenzo Cain.

Looking ahead to 2013, here is my projected lineup:

C: Jon Lucroy/ Angel Salome

1B: Prince Fielder (they’ll sign him to a big contract)

2B: Brett Lawrie

SS: Alcides Escobar

3B: Casey McGehee

LF: Ryan Braun

CF: Kentrail Davis

RF: Mat Gamel

Starting Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Eric Arnett, Cody Scarpetta, Jake Odorizzi, Amaury Rivas

Closer: John Axford

 

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Atlanta Braves: Updated Top 10 Prospects

At this point in the season, Jason Heyward, the Braves (and baseball’s) top prospect is tearing it up in Atlanta. But the Braves system still has a load of young talent, so here are my top 10 Atlanta Braves prospects as of right now.

Although the rankings are affected by performance thus far in 2010, I’m not going to make any huge drops based on performances thus far.

 

       1. Julio Teheran

Last year, Teheran split time between Danville and Rome, and wasn’t a dominant pitcher while playing in A-ball. This year, that changed. After toying with Sally League hitters in his first seven starts (1.14 ERA, 10.3 K/9) Julio earned a promotion to Myrtle Beach, and has continued to impress. In his first two starts, he has allowed just one run over 13 innings, while striking out 14. Just 19 years old, Teheran could crack the major league roster by September of 2011 if he continues to dominate hitters.

 

       2. Randall Delgado

Coming into the season, Delgado was seen as the third or fourth best pitching prospect in the Braves organization, but he has really impressed me so far in 2010. Pitching in Myrtle Beach (high-A) he has posted a 2.43 ERA over 10 starts. The reason he has risen on the prospect list is his improved control, which has led to a 5.67 K/BB ratio so far. Assuming he continues to strike batters out at a terrific 10.3 K/9 rate, Delgado should be pitching in AA by the end of the season, which means a September call-up in 2011 isn’t out of the question.

 

       3. Arodys Vizcaino

Acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade this winter, Vizcaino has impressed thus far in Rome (A). Although he struggled some to begin the year, he hasn’t allowed a run over his past three starts (spanning 23.2 innings) and has compiled a 2.73 ERA on the year. While his strikeout rate has dipped a bit (from 11.1 to 8.5 K/9) he has shown improved control (6.2 K/BB) and gives the Braves another young (19) arm with a bright future. Best case scenario, he is a September call-up in 2011, but I don’t see him in the majors until the middle of the 2012 campaign.

 

      4. Freddie Freeman

The guy whom most consider the Braves top prospect at this point is fourth on my list simply because of the dominating numbers put up by the Braves trio of young pitchers. Although he hasn’t been great in AAA thus far (.263/5/24) he is still only 20 years old and hit pretty well in limited spring training at-bats. Still developing as a power hitter, Freeman should continue to improve as the year progresses, and likely will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the 2011 season.

 

      5. Craig Kimbrel

Although Kimbrel just recently completed his first stint in the major leagues, I am including him on this list as he only pitched 3.1 innings in Atlanta. The Braves closer of the future, Kimbrel undoubtedly has some of the nastiest stuff in the organization. The strikeouts have always been there for Kimbrel, who has posted 28 of them in just 18 AAA innings this year, but control is keeping him from pitching full time in Atlanta. Although he has walked just seven batters in AAA, he allowed five free passes in his brief major league stint. It’s likely we will see Kimbrel in Atlanta again before the season is over, and with Billy Wagner retiring at the end of the year, Kimbrel could be the closer in 2011.

 

       6. Edward Salcedo

Although he is yet to play in a game, the Braves (and obviously myself) are high on the shortstop that the Braves signed this spring. He will be playing rookie ball the second half of this season, and is only 18 years old. It will be hard to get a read on him until he gets a taste of professional ball, but given that the Braves view him as a first round talent, I am high on the young shortstop.

 

       7. Mike Minor

It’s hard to figure out what to make of Minor, the Braves most recent first round pick.  Seen as a very developed pitcher who should reach the majors quickly, Minor wasn’t supposed to strike a ton of people out. But through 10 AA starts, Minor has posted 12.9 K/9, a number that nobody saw coming. His 4.20 ERA isn’t good, but isn’t terrible. Before giving up seven runs in his last start, Minor has allowed just two runs over his past 19 innings. If he can figure things out quickly and earn a promotion to AAA before mid-year, it’s possible he could pitch in Atlanta at some point during the 2010 season.

 

      8. Christian Bethancourt

The 19 year old catching prospect has struggled some this season in A-ball, but Bethancourt still has the tools to be the eventual successor to Brian McCann. Eventually, Bethancourt could develop into a top notch defensive catcher with an above-average bat. While his .234/2/13 line is rather unimpressive, Bethancourt is hitting .314 over his past nine games, and might be figuring out Sally League pitching. With McCann under contract for a couple years, he won’t break into the majors until September 2012 or early 2013.

 

      9. Robinson Lopez

Lopez is the first guy who wasn’t in the top 10 at the beginning of the season, and I had him in the 12-14 range. After an impressive stint in Rookie League last year (1.29 ERA) Lopez has been pretty darn good in Rome (2.63 ERA). Originally a reliever, his last three appearances have been starts, and he continues to excel (his ERA in those starts is 2.64, so about the same as it was as a reliever). With an impressive 10.0 K/9 and 3.00 K/BB, Lopez will be moving up a lot of Braves prospects lists as the year goes on. He is only 19 years old, and I would say his ETA in the majors is late 2012-mid 2013.

    10. Cory Rasmus

Although Rasmus is older (22) for the levels he has been playing at (A-ball this year). A former first round pick (in 2006) he obviously has potential, but has dealt with injuries over the past few years. This year he has spent time both starting and finished games in Rome, and has impressed in both cases (2.45 ERA as starter, 1.93 in relief). On the year, he has struck out a batter per inning, and should be moving up to Myrtle Beach soon if they can find room. I will set his ETA at 2012, hoping he can move through the system somewhat quickly because of his age.

 

All in all, the Braves still have some top flight prospects even after losing Jason Heyward. The system could use some impact hitters soon, as only three cracked my top 10. Adam Milligan and Cody Johnson both are interesting prospects, but I see major flaws in both of their games which could prevent them from making the majors.

Chris Masters also just missed out on this list. He has been dominant in Rome (1.56 ERA) but, like Rasmus, is old (22) for the league. In the end, I had to go with the former first round pick.

As the year progresses, this list will probably shift some (especially toward the bottom of the group), but the Braves should continue to have impact players (especially pitchers) getting called up over the next couple years. A potential 2013 rotation of Hanson, Jurrjens, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino could be flat out dominant.

 

Photo Credit: http://media.photobucket.com/image/julio%20teheran/dropoutproductions/TeheranJuliocopy.jpg?o=11

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