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Although Washington Nationals star Bryce Harper is under team control for the next two seasons, speculation is already running rampant as to his future in the nation’s capital beyond the 2018 campaign. 

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Latest on Negotiations Between Harper, Nationals

Monday, Dec. 5

On Monday, USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale reported Harper is looking to get a deal for 10-plus years worth more than $400 million—terms the Nationals are unwilling to meet at this stage.

Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, refuted the report, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan: “I have had no discussions with the Nationals regarding Harp and a long-term contract.”

Harper’s request for a contract totaling over $400 million wouldn’t be all that surprising. An MLB star is bound to cross that threshold sooner or later after Giancarlo Stanton re-signed with the Miami Marlins for $325 million over 13 years in 2014.

Harper, who turns 26 in two years, will be in the prime of his career, thus sitting in a position to demand one of the richest deals in baseball history, whether it’s with the Nationals or another team.

By his standards, Harper is coming off a disappointing 2016. A year after winning the National League‘s MVP award, he batted .243 with 24 home runs and 86 RBI. His slugging percentage dropped from .649 in 2015 to .441.

Despite his issues at the plate, Harper would likely be able to name his price in free agency should he rebound in 2017 and 2018.

Nationals principal owner Ted Lerner has shown a willingness to spend to make the team a World Series contender. Washington sent a message when it signed Jayson Werth for seven years and $126 million in 2010, and it has subsequently handed out contracts worth a combined $485 million to Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Ryan Zimmerman.

Still, re-signing Harper will be a major challenge for the Nationals. He has little incentive to agree on an extension before hitting free agency, and should he hit the open market, there’s no telling how high his price tag could climb.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers were so enamored with Rich Hill after acquiring him in August that they have decided to keep him around with a new contract extension, announcing Monday that they had signed him to a three-year contract.

Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reported the deal is worth $48 million.  

While Hill is always a significant injury risk, there’s no denying his performance on the mound when he’s able to take the ball. 

Hill showed his capability for dominating a terrific lineup when he shut down the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series. He gave up two hits and two walks with six strikeouts over six innings in a 6-0 win. 

When Hill is at the top of his game, even at 36 years old, there is a strong argument to be made that he’s one of the best left-handed starters in baseball. The Dodgers already have the best one (Clayton Kershaw), so keeping Hill makes perfect sense. 

The problem is Hill has never shown himself to be capable of staying healthy. He made only 20 starts in 2016 for the Dodgers and Oakland Athletics. He was traded to the Dodgers on Aug. 1, but didn’t debut for the team until Aug. 24 due to lingering blister problems. 

On Monday, Hill told reporters that his blister problems are behind him.

Since making his MLB debut in 2005 with the Cubs, Hill made 30 starts just one time and was relegated to bullpen duty from 2010-14 because it was seemingly impossible to keep him on the mound. 

Despite those injury concerns, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors did note there is recent precedent for injury-prone pitchers to get multiyear deals in free agency:

If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well. Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.

It also helped Hill’s free-agent case that this year’s crop of available starting pitchers is bad, to put it nicely.

The Dodgers have been burned by recent deals for free-agent pitchers like Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy, but Hill brings with him a level of domination difficult to replace. He can also serve as a bridge for Julio Urias when the 20-year-old is ready and allowed by the team to take on the task of throwing 200 innings in a season.

Given the way Hill is still able to put up gaudy strikeout numbers without allowing much hard contact and keeps the ball in the park, it’s not a surprise that the Dodgers brought him on board to boost the rotation knowing he probably won’t pitch more than 120 innings during any season of his contract. 

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Mark Melancon spent the second half of the 2016 season with the Washington Nationals, but the 31-year-old closer is moving on from the reigning National League East champions after signing with the San Francisco Giants on Monday.

The Giants announced the deal Monday after Buster Olney of ESPN first reported the agreement. Melancon would comment on the news via Twitter: 

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the contract is for four years and $62 million. The deal includes an opt-out clause after the second season, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area broke down the financial terms:

Olney noted Melancon’s deal is a record one, but he spoke to a National League evaluator who said “that’ll soon be broken.”

The Nationals acquired the three-time All-Star from the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 30 to help fortify the closer’s role in the nation’s capital.

After Melancon recorded 30 saves, a 1.51 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP in 45 appearances with the Pirates, he proceeded to hold down the fort with the Nationals.

Melancon notched 17 saves for Washington while finishing 28 games and appearing in 30 in total. By the time his two-month stint in D.C. came to a close, Melancon had notched a 1.82 ERA and 0.809 WHIP.

He finished an MLB-best 67 games thanks to a three-pitch arsenal comprised of a fastball, wicked cutter and curveball, according to FanGraphs.

Speaking to reporters in August, Melancon credited his time with the New York Yankees and famed closer Mariano Rivera for the development of his cutter.

“I was in the pen with Mariano,” Melancon said. “I got to watch that a lot from him and just sit behind the plate, sit behind him pitching, and not only did I notice how important the cutter and the movement and when to throw it in, backdoor it and all that stuff, but just his location and how important that was.”

Based on the way Melancon performed a season after he tallied a major league-best 51 saves, targeting him in free agency was a no-brainer for the Giants since they ranked 15th in bullpen ERA (3.65) among all MLB teams in 2016.

Bringing Melancon aboard also gives the Giants some peace of mind at the back end of their bullpen.

San Francisco blew an MLB-high 30 saves last season, which contributed to a woeful 58.9 save percentage. Only five teams recorded lower save percentages.

That number figures to improve if Melancon can replicate the success he’s experienced over the past couple of years once he arrives in the Bay Area.

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The Philadelphia Phillies took a big step toward shoring up their bullpen with the addition of Joaquin Benoit on Monday. 

According to Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball, the 39-year-old reliever signed with the club after Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported the two sides were close Sunday night.

Benoit had two very different seasons in 2016, struggling to the tune of a 5.18 ERA with the Seattle Mariners before eventually being traded at the deadline. He was lights out with the Toronto Blue Jays, however, allowing just one run in 23.2 innings. 

Unfortunately, the right-handed pitcher tore his calf attempting to run in from the bullpen in a late-season, bench-clearing brawl. He missed the last week of the regular season and the entire postseason, unable to help the Blue Jays in their eventual loss in the American League Championship Series.

“It’s a big loss, no doubt about it,” manager John Gibbons said at the time of the injury, per ESPN.com. “He’s been so good.”

According to sports broadcaster Hazel Mae (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet), he was off crutches and throwing off flat ground by mid-October, so the issue shouldn’t be a concern going forward.

Assuming he is healthy, Philadelphia should get a big contribution from one of the more consistent relievers in the league. Even with his struggles in Seattle, Benoit has finished the season with a sub-3.00 ERA in six of the last seven seasons and had over 50 strikeouts each year.

The pitcher has spent over 15 years in the major leagues with six different organizations, accumulating 57 wins, 51 saves and a 3.79 ERA.

Benoit could be a major boost for a team that finished with the third-highest bullpen ERA in 2016 at 5.05.

While he is getting up there in age, Benoit has shown he can still be an effective reliever and should make an impact right away with his new team.

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The Toronto Blue Jays added a high-upside player to the roster Monday with the signing of Steve Pearce to a two-year, $12.5 million deal.

The Blue Jays confirmed the deal on Monday after ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported the agreement and terms. 

The 33-year-old veteran is coming off season-ending arm surgery to repair his flexor tendons, but when healthy, the versatile player is capable of making big contributions to the lineup.

Pearce finished last season hitting .288 with a .374 on-base percentage and 13 home runs in 85 games with the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. His best season came with Baltimore in 2014 when he hit 21 home runs with a .930 on-base plus slugging percentage.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, he ranked ninth in the American League that season at 5.9 wins above replacement despite playing just 102 games.

Altogether, Pearce has spent time with five different teams across his 10 seasons in the major leagues.

In addition to providing quality hitting from the right side of the plate, Pearce also adds value with his positional versatility. He has experience at first base, second base and in both corner outfield spots over the past few seasons and can give his team plenty of options in the lineup.

While this isn’t likely the type of signing that will excite fans, the utility player could provide quality depth to the Blue Jays lineup throughout the season.

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In a baseball year that was about ending droughts, the Washington Nationals had to sit back and wonder why they were left out.

They have a good team. They won 95 games, the third time in the last five years they’ve won at least that many (no one else has done it more than twice).

All it got them was another chance at October frustration. The Nationals didn’t win a postseason series. The Nationals have never won a postseason series.

You want to talk about droughts? That’s a drought.

They can ask why, or they can do something about it. They can ask why, or they can ask the question Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein famously posed after his July trade for Aroldis Chapman, per ESPN.com:

“If not now, when?”

Now is when for the Nationals, and it’s clear they understand it. A National League executive who knows the Nationals well said early in the offseason they would make Chris Sale a priority, and sure enough, reporting by FanRag‘s Jon Heyman and Fox Sports‘ Ken Rosenthal suggests they are among the front-runners for the Chicago White Sox ace. Rosenthal also reported on Twitter the Nationals are among at least two teams with a four-year, $60 million offer for Mark Melancon, the closer they acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in July.

Then there’s Andrew McCutchen.

This is the time for the Pittsburgh Pirates to trade their star center fielder, and this is the time for the Nationals to go get him.

Trea Turner did a fine job in center field the second half of the season, but the best way for the Nationals to make the most of his talent is to put Turner back at shortstop. Bryce Harper could move to center field if the Nationals acquired another corner guy, but Harper is best if he’s playing one of the corner spots.

McCutchen isn’t the all-around threat he was in 2013, when he was the National League’s Most Valuable Player and helped end Dusty Baker’s tenure with the Cincinnati Reds (after McCutchen‘s Pirates beat Baker’s Reds in the NL Wild Card Game). But his subpar 2016 ended with enough improvement in August and September to convince scouts he can still be a star.

He’d be a fit in the Nationals clubhouse, and he’d be a great fit in the Nationals lineup, a right-handed force for Baker to mix with the left-handed hitting Harper and Daniel Murphy in the middle of the order.

As ESPN.com‘s Jayson Stark reported, the Pirates and Nationals “ramped up” talks about a McCutchen deal last week. Stark suggested pitchers Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez as possible Pittsburgh targets in a deal. Other speculation has centered on 19-year-old outfield prospect Victor Robles, who Rosenthal identified as a Pirates target in a possible Pirates-Nationals McCutchen deal that fell through last summer.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo is notoriously hesitant to part with his best prospects. Rizzo has shown a willingness to make trades—he got Melancon from the Pirates and has made other deals for Gio Gonzalez and Denard Span in recent years—but he has also been conscious of the future.

The future is fine, and the Nationals’ future remains bright, but they also understand they have a window to win big that might not remain open that long. Harper and Murphy have two years to go to free agency, and while ace Max Scherzer is signed through 2021, he turns 33 next July.

In other words, if not now, when?

Like Sale, McCutchen has the added attraction of carrying a reasonable contract. That’s significant for a Nationals team that has more than $100 million committed to six players for 2017. Sale would add just $12 million to the 2017 payroll, a true bargain for a left-handed ace.

McCutchen will make $14 million in 2017, with a club option for $14.5 million the following year.

As I wrote last month, he’s a bargain if he comes anywhere near the form that put him in the top five in MVP voting four straight years from 2012-15. The risk would come if last year’s decline was a sign McCutchen‘s age (30) has already robbed him of the speed that made him such a dynamic force with the Pirates.

Pirates general manager Neal Huntington told me he expects “he’s going to come to camp and be Andrew McCutchen again,” but Huntington also admitted the Pirates have had discussions about whether to move McCutchen out of center field. They don’t totally agree with the defensive metrics that painted McCutchen as the worst defensive center fielder in the game (as detailed in the column I did on McCutchen last month), but scouts said the eye test also showed a decline in his defensive skills.

The Nationals would be betting on a bounce-back, but it would be a smart and worthy bet. And a timely bet, too.

After all, if not now, when?

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to make a splash on the open market during the offseason, and Buster Olney of ESPN The Magazine reported that they are shopping right-handed pitcher Brandon McCarthy in an effort to create additional space on the 40-man roster. 

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Trading McCarthy Could Clear Room for Hill

Sunday, Dec. 4

Olney noted Los Angeles’ 40-man roster sits at 39, which means the team would have to free some space in order to sign free-agent pitcher Rich Hill and other players. Trading McCarthy would help it do just that.

This comes after Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register said the Dodgers and Hill were “closing in on [a] multi-year deal,” which could increase the urgency to trade McCarthy or Scott Kazmir, who Olney also noted was being shopped.

It is not surprising Los Angeles is looking to bring back Hill after he posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in six starts for the team down the stretch. He also anchored the rotation in the playoffs alongside Clayton Kershaw and finished with a 3.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in three starts.

It makes sense to trade McCarthy to ensure there’s enough space to re-sign Hill, but Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors said moving the righty would be about more than just the roster space. Polishuk said only Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias are locks to be in Los Angeles’ rotation in 2017 and that trading McCarthy may force the team to look within at options such as Alex Wood and Jose De Leon.

From other teams’ perspectives, trading for McCarthy would come with some red flags.

McCarthy—who has pitched for the Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees and Dodgers since entering the league in 2005—made just four starts in 2015 and 10 in 2016 because of Tommy John surgery. He finished the 2016 campaign with an unspectacular 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 40 innings.

He has just two seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA in his entire career, and they came in back-to-back efforts in 2011 and 2012 with Oakland. McCarthy will also turn 34 years old during the 2017 season and is likely well past his prime.

It is difficult to envision there will be significant interest in McCarthy from teams unless they see him as a reclamation project who is available as a trade chip for relatively cheap.

Polishuk did say the starting pitcher market is thin in terms of free agency this offseason, so teams desperate for depth could look his way. He did combine for 196 strikeouts in 280.2 innings in 2011 and 2012 with 3.32 and 3.24 ERAs respectively, but that was before the surgery that has limited him in the second half of his career.

There is plenty of risk involved with acquiring McCarthy, which could force Los Angeles to lower any asking price to accelerate a trade.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have a crowded roster heading into the meat of their offseason and are reportedly shopping left-handed pitcher Scott Kazmir to create additional space, per Buster Olney of ESPN The Magazine.

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Trading Kazmir Would Help Dodgers Add Hill

Sunday, Dec. 4

Olney noted Los Angeles couldn’t sign free agent Rich Hill and other players with a 40-man roster already at 39 without making some moves, such as trading Kazmir.

Los Angeles eventually signing Hill appears to be approaching as reality, as Bill Plunkettof the Orange County Register said the two sides were “closing in on [a] multiyear deal.”

Clayton Kershaw served as the anchor for the Dodgers rotation in 2016, but Hill was a major reason they reached the National League Championship Series and took the eventual World Series champion Chicago Cubs to six games.

The southpaw made six starts for the team down the stretch after beginning the season on the Oakland Athletics and posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 34.1 innings. He also finished with a solid 3.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in three playoff starts.

If trading Kazmir will help Los Angeles bring that type of production back, it is probably worth it.

However, Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors said moving Kazmir would be about more than just clearing roster space since it would directly impact the team’s rotation plans with Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias as the only surefire options at this point.

Polishuk pointed to candidates such as Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jose De Leon who could emerge in the race for spots, especially since Olney noted the Dodgers were also shopping Brandon McCarthy.

Kazmir comes with some risks, since he will be 33 years old throughout the entirety of the 2017 campaign. He also dealt with thoracic spine inflammation in 2016 in his first year with the Dodgers and pitched just one inning after Aug. 22.

The journeyman has played for the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics and Dodgers throughout his career and finished the 2016 campaign with a 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 134 strikeouts in 136.1 innings. The recent numbers don’t exactly turn heads, but he is a three-time All-Star (2006, 2008 and 2014) with six seasons of a sub-4.00 ERA on his resume.

The injury problems are a concern considering he made a mere one start in 2011 and didn’t pitch in 2012, but he did tally 26 or more starts in each of the last four seasons.

He is a high-risk, high-reward endeavor who could attract teams looking for starting pitching depth on the trade market instead of through free agency.

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A scant three weeks before Christmas, the New York Yankees signed Matt Holliday for one year and $13 million, per Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball. 

I will spare you the painfully obvious holiday/Holliday puns.

It’s a solid move for the Yanks, who are in the midst of a youth movement but also seeking to win now.

New York whiffed on outfielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran when he signed with the Houston Astros for one year and $16 million on Saturday.

The Yankees dealt Beltran to the Texas Rangers at the 2016 trade deadline, but according to Heyman, they were interested in bringing the veteran switch-hitter back. 

Now, they have his ostensible replacement—a veteran bat with bona fide big-game credentials.

The Yankees’ emphasis is on shedding costly flotsam and adding cost-controlled depth. In addition to Beltran, they moved ace relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller at the deadline and restocked a farm system that’s now No. 1 in the game, per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter.

At the same time, they’ve got an unspoken mandate to stay competitive and dance back onto the October stage as quickly as possible. 

Holliday doesn’t guarantee that will happen. He posted a less than stellar .246/.322/.461 slash line last season for the St. Louis Cardinals in 110 games. Injuries limited him to just 73 games in 2015.

On the other hand, he’s a seven-time All-Star who won a ring in 2011 and has 302 playoff plate appearances to his name. The 20 home runs he cracked in 2016 suggest there’s pop residing in his bat. 

He can play the outfield and may see time there if New York trades Brett Gardner. His defense, however, has taken a serious dive.

At this point, he projects best at DH or first base, where he got nine starts last season. That meets the Yankees’ needs, especially with first baseman Greg Bird coming off major shoulder surgery.

Getting reps at DH and playing the bulk of his games in the hitter-happy American League East could give Holliday a late-career bump.

He also won’t cost New York a draft pick since St. Louis didn’t offer him arbitration.

“Our preference is to retain a draft pick if we can,” general manager Brian Cashman said, per George A. King III and Dan Martin of the New York Post. “We have a certain amount of money we want to allocate to allow us to do a number of different things.”

One of those things could be closer Aroldis Chapman, whom the Yankees acquired last December and dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline.

“I would love to be a Yankee again,” Chapman told NY Sports Day’s Ray Negron in November. 

Chapman could command a deal in the vicinity of nine figures, which makes Holliday a more prudent signing than, say, Edwin Encarnacion.

The Yankees were “well-positioned to make a play” for Encarnacion, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Now, with Holliday in the fold, they may pass on the 33-year-old slugger, who came with draft-pick compensation and an unavoidable jolt of sticker shock.

Ditching long-term monetary commitments aligns with a grander vision, as ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand spelled out:

Will [Holliday] be good in 2017? Who knows? Will the Yankees be good in 2017? No one knows that, either. But if Holliday is solid, it could be a big lift for this bridge year as the Yankees try to reload and rebuild toward 2019, which is when the Yankees’ next “uber” (trademark, Brian Cashman) team might be ready to add Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado and others.

Getting back to the here and now with Holliday, there are reasons for optimism that go beyond the DH and AL East. There were hints of bad luck in his 2016 stat line, per ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney:

New York has work to do. It needs to add arms to a rotation that features Masahiro Tanaka and a heap of question marks. It needs to go hard after Chapman or explore other avenues to give Dellin Betances company in the late innings.

Holliday, though, can be the cherry on top of a sundae that includes catcher and AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Gary Sanchez, 24-year-old masher Aaron Judge and a host of MiLB up-and-comers. 

Whether the Yankees can win the division depends on what further moves they make and what becomes of their competition. The Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles all made the playoffs in 2016 and are looking to improve.

But, at the risk of straining the Holliday/holiday comparison, the Yanks just opened a nicely wrapped package—and checked an item off their wish list.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

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Matt Holliday struggled to find his previous All-Star form throughout an injury-marred 2016 season, but the New York Yankees reportedly took a chance on him Sunday.

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Bronx Bombers signed the slugger to a one-year deal worth $13 million. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports confirmed the signing. 

Heyman, citing Sweeny Murti of CBS New York, said Holliday will serve as the designated hitter for the Yankees. 

This comes after the St. Louis Cardinals declined the remaining option year on his previous contract on the heels of a 2016 season in which he played just 110 games and slashed .246/.322/.461 with 20 home runs and 62 RBI. He also fell short in the outfield and was responsible for minus-eight defensive runs saved above average, per FanGraphs.

Holliday played for the Colorado Rockies from 2004 to 2008, the Oakland Athletics for 93 games in 2009 and the Cardinals from 2009 to 2016.

He was an All-Star his final three years with Colorado, as well as his first three full seasons with St. Louis. The seven-time All-Star also made the team in 2015 and has four Silver Slugger Awards and the 2007 National League batting title on his impressive resume.

USA Today ranked him as the 46th-best free agent in this offseason’s class and pointed to some of his decline as he ages: “Once one of the game’s most consistent power hitters, Holliday has begun to show his age over the past two seasons as injuries have become more of a problem. His career-low .246 average and .783 OPS in 2016 confirm the decline.”

Holliday played just 73 games in 2015 because of a right quadriceps injury and dealt with a fractured thumb that required surgery and a facial abrasion after being hit by a pitch in 2016.

He still managed to reach the 20-homer plateau for the 10th time in his career:

In addition to his raw power, Holliday brings postseason experience to his new team. He has 72 playoff games and the 2007 National League Championship Series MVP under his belt and will look to help lead the Yankees to the playoffs in 2017.

He was confident in his abilities heading into the offseason, per Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com: “I have a lot of good baseball left in me.”

That may be the case, but he will be 37 years old throughout the 2017 campaign. The power was still there when healthy in 2016, and he won’t be a liability in the outfield as a designated hitter.

Between his veteran leadership, postseason mettle and pop he brings to the order, Holliday can develop into an impact signing for New York.

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