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They were two of the biggest stars in baseball, and the Detroit Tigers ensured they didn’t get away.

“I want to finish my career here,” Miguel Cabrera told reporters when he signed an eight-year, $248 million deal in the spring of 2014.

“Once we started contract talks, I wanted to stay in Detroit, and I wasn’t shy about saying that,” Justin Verlander told reporters after signing a seven-year, $180 million deal a year earlier. “I think it all worked out.”

Or did it?

The Tigers spent a decade winning around Cabrera and Verlander, teaming one of the game’s most feared hitters with one of the most dominant pitchers. But in the three years since Cabrera re-signed, they haven’t won a single postseason game. They’re now determined to reduce a payroll that approached $200 million in 2016 and to renew a talent base that had aged to the point they’ve been considered a franchise in decline.

During general manager Al Avila’s end-of-season press conference in October, he acknowledged changes were coming, telling reporters, “I can’t call it a rebuild because we haven’t broken anything down. So, no, I’m not comfortable with the word rebuild. I’ve read retool, I don’t know if that’s the right term. I don’t know if there’s a term for what I want to do here.”

And now the question of the winter, in Detroit and elsewhere, is whether the Tigers would trade one or both of their biggest stars.

“I think they would,” said one American League executive who has talked with the Tigers. “There’s a big difference between them and the White Sox. The White Sox would have to get a ton to trade [Chris] Sale, and even then, their owner might not really want to do it. The Tigers are looking for value, but I think they would like to make a trade.”

Before you start panicking (Tigers fans) or plotting ways to put Verlander in your rotation and Cabrera in your lineup (everyone else), understand that a willingness to make a deal won’t necessarily lead to one. Even a desire to make a deal wouldn’t mean Cabrera and Verlander are done in Detroit.

ESPN.com‘s Jim Bowden recently put the chances of a Verlander deal at 20 percent and the chances of a Cabrera trade at 10 percent.

“I’d say 20 percent might be about right for Verlander,” said an American League executive who has spoken with Tigers decision-makers. “But it’s probably 5 percent at best for Miguel.”

Verlander would be easier to trade, partly because everyone needs pitching and partly because just three years and $84 million remain guaranteed on his contract. Cabrera likely could only go to an American League team that can eventually use him as a designated hitter, and only to a team that can absorb the guaranteed seven years and $220 million he has left.

Even at those long odds, it’s a bit of a shock to see the Tigers reach this point.

They’ve been pushing for a World Series title since 2006, Jim Leyland’s first season with the club and the year Verlander was the American League Rookie of the Year. Cabrera arrived after 2007 in a blockbuster trade with the Florida Marlins, and the Tigers won four straight American League Central titles from 2011 to 2014, advancing to the ALCS three straight years and to the World Series in 2012.

Verlander was the American League’s Most Valuable Player in 2011. Cabrera won the same award the next two years.

The Tigers were big spenders and big winners, and if they had to go over budget to get or keep a star, there was always a decent chance owner Mike Ilitch would OK it (or even push to make the deal himself). Ilitch was super competitive—everyone knew—and he was also aging and running out of time to win the World Series he craved.

He’s 87 now, and he still hasn’t added a World Series title to the four Stanley Cups he won with the Detroit Red Wings. But rather than chase this winter’s free-agent stars, as Ilitch did when the Tigers signed Justin Upton in an ill-advised deal last January, he and the Tigers have chosen a different path.

The payroll, they say, is going down. They say it doesn’t need to drop too much, at least not right away. They definitely want to drop below the threshold for paying luxury tax, whatever that turns out to be once Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agree on a new collective bargaining agreement.

They don’t want to tear it all down and start over, as the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs did successfully and as other teams have copied. They want to keep competing as they build for the future, as the New York Yankees are trying to do.

The Tigers have already traded outfielder Cameron Maybin, who had a $9 million option for 2017. They’ve discussed deals for second baseman Ian Kinsler ($11 million in 2017), outfielder J.D. Martinez ($11.75 million) and designated hitter Victor Martinez ($18 million), officials say.

But none of those would be the franchise-altering trade that a Cabrera or Verlander deal would be.

None of them would change the Tigers’ future, short term and long term, the way moving one or both superstars could.

No other players could bring as much back in return. No other players could open up future budgets as much.

Cabrera’s contract pays him $28 million in 2017, $30 million a year for the four years after that, and $32 million in 2022 and 2023, when he’ll turn 40 (with two options and an $8 million buyout). Verlander also makes $28 million next year, with two more years at $28 million and a vesting-option year at $22 million after that.

The big money limits the potential suitors, but baseball officials surveyed by Bleacher Report agreed both players remain tradable this winter. That might not be true if the Tigers wait another year, with Cabrera (34 in April) and Verlander (34 in February) getting older at a time baseball as a whole is trending younger.

For teams looking for immediate help, age is less of an issue than performance. Verlander finished a close second to ex-teammate Rick Porcello in the AL Cy Young vote, his fifth top-five finish. Cabrera finished ninth in Most Valuable Player voting, the seventh time in the last eight years he has been in the top 10.

Still, only a few teams can afford to add a player making $28 million. The officials agreed a Cabrera trade would be tougher than one for Verlander, because it’s hard to see a National League team trading for someone who will likely need to become a designated hitter before his contract runs out.

Beyond that, both Verlander and Cabrera have full no-trade protection, so either would need to sign off on any possible move. That may not be the biggest obstacle, though, given that any team which could afford one of them would likely have a real chance of winning a World Series.

The other question rival officials ask is whether the Tigers would be better off keeping both of their stars. The long-term financial impact could be bad, but the Tigers might have a better chance of winning in 2017 with both of them than they would anytime in the next five to six years if they trade them.

“That [American League Central] division is winnable,” said one National League scout who follows it closely.

A Central Division team has played in the World Series each of the last three years and four of the last five, but none of the teams have the financial firepower present in baseball’s other five divisions. The Tigers have had the division’s highest payroll eight of the last nine years (2011 is the exception, with both the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins spending more).

Without all of that money to spend, the Tigers would have had to trade Cabrera and Verlander long before this or watch them leave as free agents. As it was, they kept both stars, giving them deals that seemed to make them Tigers for life.

It still could turn out that way. Cabrera and/or Verlander could enforce their no-trade rights and decide to stay. The Tigers could decide the offers they get aren’t strong enough to justify making a trade.

But keeping both stars now could well mean living with both of those big contracts all the way to the end. As it stands now, the Tigers have five players signed for $122.125 million in 2018 (Cabrera, Verlander, Martinez, Upton and Jordan Zimmermann) and four players signed for $105.125 million in 2019 (all but Martinez).

Even if those players all perform at high levels, it will be increasingly tough to build a winner around them if the overall payroll is going to drop.

“It’s going to collapse on itself,” the National League scout said.

The Tigers’ hope is they can keep that from happening by acting now. The hope is they haven’t waited too long already.

Most teams want to keep their stars right to the end, but few actually do. Of the 34 players on the Hall of Fame ballot announced last week, just two (Jorge Posada and Edgar Martinez) played their entire careers for the teams that originally signed them.

Verlander twice gave up a chance at free agency with the idea he would someday be able to say the same thing. Cabrera, traded from the Marlins to the Tigers when he was 24, twice gave up a chance at free agency with the idea he wouldn’t go anywhere else.

They committed to the Tigers, and the Tigers committed to them.

Whether they end up moving or not, this is the winter when commitment gets tested.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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The Chicago Cubs are the team to beat in the National League. That was true before they busted their 108-year championship drought and it’s certainly true now.

Here’s the thing about being the team to beat, though: Everyone wants to beat you.

Like, say, the Washington Nationals.

The Nats are the defending NL East champs. They pushed the Los Angeles Dodgers to five games in the division series, despite losing All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos and co-ace Stephen Strasburg to injury. They’re within shouting distance of Senior Circuit supremacy.

Here’s an intriguing thought exercise: Would a trade for Chicago White Sox stud Chris Sale put them in position to threaten the Cubs’ nascent reign?

The Nats have kicked the tires on Sale, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale. Why not? With a comically weak free-agent class, he could be the winter’s biggest prize if he’s moved.

A 27-year-old five-time All-Star, Sale has eclipsed 200 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons and thrown more than 200 innings in three of them. He’s averaged 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings since his debut in 2010, the sixth-highest total among active pitchers. 

He’s under contract for the next three seasons, for $12 million in 2017, a $12.5 million team option in 2018 and a $13.5 million team option in 2019, a relative bargain.

He’ll also cost a lot in trade, as we’ll get into shortly. For now, back to the original question: Could adding Sale push Washington past Chicago?

He’d join a rotation already fronted by NL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer and Strasburg, forming a formidable top three.

Here, let’s stack their 2016 stats next to each other for fun:

Add Tanner Roark (16-10, 2.83 ERA, 210 innings, 172 strikeouts) and you’d be looking at one of the deepest, most dangerous rotations in the game.

The Cubs have a strong starting corps of their own. Chicago’s top four starters—Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta and John Lackey—combined for 15.7 WAR by FanGraphs‘ measure. 

Marry Sale’s 2016 WAR to the totals for Scherzer, Strasburg and Roark, however, and you get an even more robust 17.8.

The Nationals’ bullpen ranked second in the NL with a 3.37 ERA last season, while the Cubs’ relief corps ranked fourth with a 3.56 mark. Both teams could lose the elite closers they acquired at the trade deadline—Mark Melancon from the Nationals and Aroldis Chapman from the Cubs.

The Nationals could also lose their backstop and a key offensive cog with Ramos on the market. The Cubs, likewise, need to re-sign or replace center fielder and leadoff man Dexter Fowler, which they may have done by signing Jon Jay to a one-year, $8 million pact, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

The Cubs’ offensive core is second to none, with NL MVP Kris Bryant, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, shortstop Addison Russell and second baseman/breakout postseason star Javier Baez leading a group that ranked second in the NL in runs (808) and OPS (.772).

The Nats counter with 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper, second baseman Daniel Murphy and center fielder/speedy breakout rookie Trea Turner. They also hit more home runs than the Cubs in 2016 (203 to 199) and stole more bases (121 to 66). 

The chasm isn’t that wide, in other words. One seismic move could edge Washington over the top. 

The same could be said for other NL contenders, including the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers need starting pitching and a bat or two, though they may be shackled by financial constraints. The Giants need to add some thump to their lineup and bolster a bullpen that was their undoing last season.

The New York Mets, meanwhile, made the biggest move of the offseason thus far, re-upping outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for four years and $110 million, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan. 

That’s another reason for the Nats to be aggressive. The Mets, recall, won the division and the NL pennant in 2015 and could be a formidable opponent in 2017 if their rotation bounces back to health.

What would Washington have to surrender for Sale? The short answer: a ton.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal opined, correctly, that it’s “virtually impossible to imagine the Nationals parting with Turner.”

However, Rosenthal added, “they could entice the White Sox with others from their deep, talented system. Start with right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Erick Fedde and outfielder Victor Robles, and take it from there.”

Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked Robles, Lopez and Fedde the Nats‘ No. 2, 3 and 4 prospects, respectively. They all rank among the game’s top 100 prospects, per MLB.com—Robles at No. 10, Lopez at No. 37 and Fedde at No. 75. 

That package would sting, and it might not be enough. The Sox could hold out for Turner, or right-hander and No. 1 prospect Lucas Giolito.

This is the time for the Nats to get bold, though. They’ve won three division titles in five years but never advanced to the National League Championship Series, let alone the big October dance.

Close your eyes and picture that rotation again: Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg and Roark.

“Imagine that in the playoffs,” an unnamed executive said, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. “And Sale being there would completely take the pressure off Strasburg.”

That’s a salient point. Talented as Strasburg is, he’s got a checkered injury history. With Sale in the fold, he could shine as the best No. 3 starter in the game.

The Cubs are the team to beat in the NL, and a safe bet to become baseball’s first repeat champions since the 2000 New York Yankees.

The Nationals have a chance to beat them, however, and Sale could be their cudgel. 

He’d be an expensive one. He’d also be worth it.

All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Since Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets seem so right for one another, it’s fitting they would agree to a contract that’s so right for one another.

A reunion between Cespedes and the Mets was the big news coming off the hot stove Tuesday.

The 31-year-old outfielder became a free agent when he opted out of a three-year, $75 million contract in early November, which prompted questions about whether he would find a better deal elsewhere. Instead, he found a better deal at the same place he’s called home since the 2015 trade deadline.

After Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the deal was done, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports spilled the details:

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Cespedes also got full no-trade protection.

And so, the 2016-17 MLB offseason recorded its first major signing. Cespedes‘ deal is worth more than twice the $52 million Josh Reddick got from the Houston Astros in his own four-year contract. It’s appropriate Cespedes was the one to do the deed, as he was widely considered the best free agent available this winter.

The bigger surprise was that the Mets signed Cespedes. They always loomed as the best fit for him, but whether they could make the financials work was a big question from the beginning.

It became an even bigger question when Mike Puma of the New York Post ran out this report last week:

Within the industry, there is a growing sense the star outfielder will command a five-year deal, which would leave the Mets facing a major decision on their immediate future.

As it stands, the Mets are likely committed to signing the 31-year-old if a four-year contract in the $100 million-to-$110 million neighborhood can be hammered out, according to an industry source, but there is less clarity on the matter when an additional year — which could push the value of a deal beyond $130 million — is considered.

A deal in that neighborhood was hardly out of the question. For instance, Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors projected Cespedes would find a five-year, $125 million contract.

The fact that the Mets brought him back for one fewer year and for significantly less guaranteed money was a big win for them. And at $27.5 million per season, they’ll pay him the rough equivalent of the salary they just fit onto their payroll in 2016.

And just as important, they retained a hugely important part of their lineup.

Cespedes has done nothing but mash for the Mets since they acquired him from the Detroit Tigers in July 2015. He OPS’d .942 with 17 home runs over the last two months of that season and returned to OPS .884 with 31 homers in 2016.

Cespedes‘ production has gone back and forth between propelling the Mets offense to greatness and saving it from utter ruin. Without him in 2015, New York would not have caught fire like it did. Without him in 2016, an even worse fate than finishing tied for 11th in the National League in runs would have been in store.

The reality that this arrangement will continue at a reasonable rate for four more years makes it easier for the Mets to swallow the downsides that are part of living with Cespedes. Those include his occasional defensive lapses and the aches and pains that have limited him to under 140 games in three of his five major league seasons.

Of course, his status as an easily marketable superstar is another bonus that makes him worth the occasional annoyances. Cespedes is media-shy, but his fondness for long dingers and shiny objects gives him a larger-than-life persona that’s perfect for baseball’s biggest media market.

But lest anyone think Cespedes did the Mets a favor by agreeing to a possibly below-market deal, let’s pump the brakes for a second.

Neither the years nor the dollars jump off the page relative to past free-agent contracts, but the average annual value of Cespedes‘ deal is no joke. Here’s Rosenthal putting it in perspective:

So to that extent, Cespedes‘ new contract makes him one of the highest-paid players in baseball history. And in the long run, the relatively short length of it could ensure there’s more where that came from.

Though Cespedes is still an excellent athlete who runs well and throws as mightily as any outfielder, his main attraction is his power. It was trending down for a while there, but he’s since turned into one of the best mashers in baseball. Over the last two seasons, he ranked 12th among qualified hitters in ISO (isolated power) with a mark of .251.

Cespedes has always had the swing path to get to this point, as he’s generally hit more fly balls than ground balls. What he needed to start doing was applying his tremendous raw power more consistently.

His hard-contact percentages reveal he’s done just that:

• 2012: 33.0%
• 2013: 31.6%
• 2014: 31.1%
• 2015: 35.8%
• 2016: 39.3%

Cespedes added yet another layer to his slugging transformation in 2016: For the first time in his career, he walked more often than the average hitter.

Corinne Landrey of FanGraphs looked at the precedent for this last week and came away unconvinced that this new habit has guaranteed lasting power. However, it might. Cespedes did improve his plate discipline, after all, and his power is certainly a reason for pitchers to be careful with him.

If he remains a disciplined power hitter over the next four seasons, there should be a market for him in his next dance with free agency—even if his other skills have eroded between the ages of 31 and 35. As much as teams like young, well-rounded players, they’ve shown they’re willing to shower money on older, one-dimensional players so long as that one dimension is a dangerous bat.

To wit, Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez each got about $15 million per season in a multiyear contract. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista should do the same this winter.

If Cespedes follows in their footsteps, his new contract will be just as easy to appreciate then as it is now. Maybe he could have found a bigger deal, but he settled for the better deal.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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For the second year in a row, the New York Mets have re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. The team announced the deal on Wednesday:

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal initially reported the deal on Tuesday. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported the contract is worth $110 million over four years. Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported it comes with a full no-trade clause. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported Cespedes wanted a fifth year but New York held firm at four.

Heyman provided a yearly salary breakdown:

The deal is the second-biggest in Mets history after they paid Carlos Beltran $119 million over seven years.

Cespedes is hopeful he will be able to finish his career with the Mets, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:

“This is the 3rd time we have acquired Yoenis in 17 months and it appears two legal separations has made the marriage stronger,” general manager Sandy Alderson said, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Cespedes‘ choice of automobiles became one of the more enjoyable stories of spring training last year. Starting pitcher Brett Anderson assumed at least one car dealer is having a good day:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is a fan of the move:

Sports Illustrated‘s Joe Sheehan raised concern with the no-trade clause, though:

Cespedes is coming off another solid season at the plate. He batted .280 with 31 home runs and 86 RBI in 132 games.

Last offseason, the then-30-year-old was coming off his best campaign. He was so good in the second half with the Mets that he entered the National League Most Valuable Player discussion.

Despite his success in the Big Apple, he signed what was effectively a one-year deal—three years, $75 million with an opt-out after 2016. While his performance dipped slightly, Cespedes was bound to command a premium in what is a lackluster free-agent market.

Cespedes was arguably the best hitter available this offseason. Edwin Encarnacion (33) and Jose Bautista (36) are both older, while Justin Turner and Ian Desmond don’t boast the same body of work.

Despite that, signing Cespedes comes with concerns.

Since making the jump to the United States, his numbers have fluctuated somewhat from one year to the next, as FanGraphs shows:

In addition to his hitting dropping slightly from 2015, his defense fell off a cliff in 2016. According to FanGraphs, he had a 15.6 ultimate zone rating a year ago, which dropped to minus-6.7 this year. His defensive runs saved fell from 11 to minus-3.

On a less quantifiable level, Cespedes‘ behavior off the field can leave a little to be desired.

During the season, the Mets had to tell him to refrain from golfing while he was on the disabled list after it created negative media attention, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. The New York Daily News‘ John Harper wrote Cespedes didn’t celebrate with his teammates after the team secured an NL wild-card spot.

Rubin wrote in October about the Mets’ concern regarding Cespedes‘ motivation were he to sign a long-term deal:

General manager Sandy Alderson generally is averse to longer-term deals, and there is particular concern that Cespedes might not provide maximum effort for the duration of a lengthy contract without the carrot of an opt-out clause.

Baseball executives believe Cespedes favors getting money up front, so perhaps a front-loaded, shorter-term deal could work, despite the Mets’ pessimism.

When a star is delivering results, eccentric behavior is embraced—or at least tolerated. When he’s not meeting expectations, that won’t hold true.

For all of his greatness, Barry Bonds’ surly personality was his undoing as he reached the twilight of his MLB career. Manny Ramirez wore out his welcome with the Boston Red Sox despite being a beloved figure among the fanbase for years prior.

None of that is to say Cespedes will start having a negative impact on the Mets clubhouse.

In January, David Wright spoke highly of Cespedes.

“I will put my name behind the statement that Yo was a good teammate on the field and a great teammate off the field,” he said in an interview with the New York Daily News‘ Kristie Ackert.

Keeping Cespedes is risky; a return to his less impressive Boston Red Sox days isn’t out of the question.

The Mets had little choice but to make every effort to re-sign Cespedes, though. Losing him would have been a crippling blow to the lineup.

The past year demonstrated that New York can’t afford to assume its young starting rotation will guarantee continued title contention. The front office needs to do everything it can to capitalize on its World Series window, and signing Cespedes sends the message the team is willing to do whatever is necessary to achieve that goal.

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Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton is an intriguing potential trade chip for the team this offseason.

Continue for updates.

Hamilton Among the Reds Reportedly on the Trade Block

Tuesday, Nov. 29

According to ESPN Insider Buster Olney, the Reds are “listening to offers on all of their players, including—sources say—center fielder Billy Hamilton.” 

Olney added: “By the time the Reds are good again, Hamilton—who has three-plus years of service time—will be on the verge of free agency, so it makes sense for Cincinnati to explore and execute a deal, because Hamilton’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now.”

Hamilton, 26, went from simply being known as a fantastic baserunner during his career to putting together a solid all-around season in 2016, hitting .260 with three home runs, 17 RBI, 69 runs scored and 58 stolen bases in 119 games played. 

He also is an excellent fielder. As Olney noted, “Hamilton ranked seventh among all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved” and “led all major leaguers—by far—in FanGraphs’ baserunning efficiency metric.”

Those numbers would have been even better, but Hamilton’s season was over on Sept. 4 due to injury. But it’s clear Hamilton took a step forward in 2016.

“This year has been a little taste of what I want to become,” he told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times on Sept. 3. “I don’t want to have this few weeks of going good and then go back to normal. I’m just looking forward to what’s going to come.”

One change for Hamilton was a new mentality at the plate.

“I’m thinking more this year about being a line-drive hitter, trying to hit the ball in the gap, not focusing on hitting ground balls,” he said. “A lot of these guys can hit home runs, hit the ball deep in the gap. My job is to hit it as low as I can, on a line. That’s what I figured out.”

Certainly, if Hamilton continues to improve his batting average and on-base percentage, he’ll be one of the most dangerous weapons at the leadoff spot in baseball. That should make him an attractive trade target for contending teams looking to bolster the top of their lineup. 

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. 

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Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison is a candidate to be dealt this winter.

Continue for updates.

Harrison Reportedly on the Trade Block

Tuesday, Nov. 29

The Pirates are considering trading Harrison this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. 

Per Rosenthal’s report: “The Pirates tried to re-sign free-agent infielder Sean Rodriguez with the idea of trading Harrison and reallocating dollars to other players, according to major league sources.”

Rosenthal also wrote, “One rival general manager described the Pirates on Thursday as a club that ‘generally’ listens to trade offers for players under long-term control.”

The Pirates find themselves in an interesting situation with Harrison. On one hand, Rodriguez signed with the Atlanta Braves this offseason, taking away the obvious replacement for Harrison. On the other, he is due a guaranteed $18.5 million over the next two seasons, which is a steep price for a player whose offensive production has declined.

In 2016, Harrison, 29, hit .283 with 59 RBI and 57 runs scored, all solid marks. But he hit just four home runs and has only eight homers in the past two seasons combined after ripping 13 in 2014, the year he made the All-Star team.

Harrison remains an excellent fielder, so the Pirates won’t be worse for keeping him this offseason. But his production from 2014 (.315 average with 13 homers, 52 RBI and 77 runs) looks like an outlier season, not the norm.

As Rosenthal noted, the Pirates have Alen Hanson and Adam Frazier waiting in the wings if the team trades Harrison.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Free-agent starting pitcher Edinson Volquez and the Miami Marlins reportedly agreed to terms on a contract on Monday.

The Miami Herald‘s Clark Spencer first reported the news, while Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed the news and added the deal is for two years and $22 million pending a physical. 

In his second season with the Kansas City Royals, Volquez compiled a 10-11 record with a 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He gave up more than a hit per inning and allowed a career-worst 23 home runs. FanGraphs‘ WAR formula measured his performance as being 1.1 wins worse than he was in 2015, when he was an integral part of the staff that led Kansas City to the World Series.

“I think I was kind of struggling all year,” Volquez said, according to the Associated Press (h/t the Washington Times). “It was one of those years. Everything doesn’t go your way.”

While far from his best year, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Royals take a chance on Volquez in 2017. The $11 million price tag isn’t all that exorbitant for a reliable arm. The Royals will likely wind up paying as much, if not more, to replace him with another veteran.

And even though Volquez wasn’t at his best, he wasn’t all that bad once you dig a little deeper. His ERA was nearly a full run worse than his FIP, his home run-to-fly ball ratio leaped nearly 5 percent from 2015 and opponents raised their average on balls in play by 29 points, per FanGraphs. A 1.5 WAR wasn’t what the Royals expected, but that’s still roughly in line with what an $11 million arm will produce nowadays.

If anything, Volquez got a little unlucky in 2016.

Now he heads to a Marlins rotation in desperate need of some help after staff ace Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident in September. The Marlins staff is shaping up to include Volquez alongside Adam Conley, Tom Koehler and Wei-Yin Chen.

The Marlins staff compiled a 4.05 ERA last season, good enough for sixth in the National League.

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If the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to dangle some starting pitchers on the winter trade market, they can rest easy knowing they at least have some name value to attract interested parties.

There’s Zack Greinke, who needs no introduction. There’s also Shelby Miller, who used to be good. Ditto with Patrick Corbin. Then there’s Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley, two former top prospects who still have youth on their side.

Interested parties could, however, choose to skip past them and go to the [suppresses urge to type “Diamondback in the Rough”] diamond in the rough: Robbie Ray.

The Diamondbacks may already be expecting as much. After all, the word from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is that they’re expecting interest in all of their young starters to pick up:

This adds up. In trading 2016 All-Star Jean Segura to the Seattle Mariners for Walker last week, new general manager Mike Hazen has already begun remaking a roster that produced just 69 wins in 2016. And with talented starters in short supply on the free-agent market, the Diamondbacks’ arms are bound to draw a crowd eventually. If they aren’t already, of course.

For the reasons referenced above, Hazen will get calls about Greinke, Miller, Corbin, Walker and Bradley. But Ray’s the guy who’s most likely to send the phone ringing off the proverbial hook. 

Reason No. 1: The left-hander is still only 25 with four years of club control left.

Reason No. 2: He’s very talented.

A surface-level examination of Ray’s career will raise questions about the second point. He only managed a 4.90 ERA in his 32 starts in 2016. Before that, he was a throw-in in two trades involving Doug Fister and Didi Gregorius. Before that, he was a fringey prospect after he was picked in the 12th round of the 2010 draft.

But for all the nits to pick, there’s a redeeming quality from Ray’s 2016 season that’s impossible to overlook. He struck out 218 batters in 174.1 innings. That’s 11.25 per nine innings, which was second only to the late Jose Fernandez among qualified starters.

Also, one of the best single-season marks ever for a left-hander:

Since strikeouts generally don’t happen by accident, nobody should be surprised to hear Ray’s didn’t.

After debuting with an average fastball of 91.3 miles per hour in 2014, he cranked it up to 94.1 mph in 2016. Some of that could be his coming into his physical prime. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted last year, it may also be coming from his abandoning a higher arm slot in favor of a more natural sidearm delivery.

Ray’s money pitch, however, is his slider. Its velocity has risen as well, from 81.1 mph in 2014 to 85.1 mph in 2016. Brooks Baseball shows he also buried more sliders below the knees, like so:

The result: Ray’s slider had the eighth-highest whiff-per-swing rate of any slider thrown by any starter, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Ray’s stuff would be attractive under any circumstances. His youth makes it even more attractive. The lack of starters who offer either of these qualities on the open market makes it more enticing still.

Of course, this raises the question of why the Diamondbacks wouldn’t prefer to keep him. There’s indeed a good chance they will. But the reason they could take advantage of Ray’s trade value now traces back to the essential truth reflected in the 4.90 ERA he posted this past season:

His talent comes with fatal flaws.

One is his control, which has produced mediocre walks-per-nine rates in the 3.5-3.7 range. That would be fine if he could at least avoid hard contact in between strikeouts and walks. But that was as big a problem as his 1.24 HR/9 and .352 batting average on balls in play from 2016 would indicate.

Per Baseball Savant, Ray was among the worst in the league with average exit velocity of 90.7 mph. This points to how his command is as big a question mark as his control. The bulk of the damage came on his heat, which he located with a noticeable pattern across the middle of the strike zone.

That’s a bad idea in general, and an even worse idea against right-handed batters. They hit .278 with 14 homers off Ray’s heat in 2016. Lo and behold, he ended the year with the following platoon split:

• Against LHB: .684 OPS, 3 HR
• Against RHB: .797 OPS, 21 HR

Say it with me now: Yikes.

Mind you, maybe Ray’s iffy fastball command wouldn’t be such a problem against right-handed batters if he had something to change speeds with. But he doesn’t. He’s largely scrapped his changeup, throwing it only 5.7 percent of the time in 2016.

The fact that Ray is basically a two-pitch pitcher leads to yet another problem. This one was covered by FanGraphs‘ August Fagerstrom, with the short version being: Ray’s predictability makes life very difficult the third time through the batting order.

All told, Ray is a strange creature. He’s done enough to turn into an overpowering starter, but he still needs quite a bit of work to turn into a truly dominant starter. 

And yet, this strange set of circumstances makes him the perfect trade chip for this winter’s market. The upside contained in his ability and controllability could have teams lining up to trade for him, and his faults could keep his price tag well below those of guys like Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander.

To boot, there’s a number of ways a trade for Ray could work out.

If he irons out his issues, he could turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter. If not, he’d be a candidate to make like Andrew Miller and turn his fastball-slider combo into a life as a relief ace. Failing that, he could make like Brett Cecil and turn into an elite lefty specialist.

The bottom line is that Ray’s arm ought to be on the radar of every team desperate for pitching this winter. With so few options available elsewhere, it’s a good one to try to take a chance on.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Although Edinson Volquez is coming off an underwhelming 2016 campaign, that didn’t stop the Miami Marlins from reportedly signing the free-agent starting pitcher.

The Miami Herald‘s Clark Spencer first reported Monday night that the Marlins agreed to terms with Volquez. According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, Volquez will earn $22 million over two years, pending a physical.

The terms of the deal would justify Volquez‘s decision to turn down his $10 million mutual option with the Kansas City Royals for 2017. Given his struggles last year, the move looked risky, but the 33-year-old appears to have benefited in the long run.

A few years ago, Volquez would have been a significant upgrade for the Marlins rotation.

However, he finished 10-11 with a 5.37 ERA in 34 starts for the Royals in 2016. According to FanGraphs, he had the second-highest ERA among qualified starters. His 4.57 FIP was more flattering but still the 14th-worst mark in the majors.

Marlins Park ranked 27th in runs (0.834) and 26th in home runs (0.793) in ESPN.com’s park factor database, which is good news for Volquez. His numbers should improve in his first year with the Marlins.

Paying $11 million per year to Volquez is a gamble for Miami, but it’s a testament to how difficult finding value on the free-agent market is this offseason.

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What a difference a year makes.

Last winter, Zack Greinke was baseball’s reigning ERA king and arguably the offseason’s hottest free-agent commodity. The Los Angeles Dodgers wanted him back. The San Francisco Giants wanted to pry him away.

Greinke ultimately, and somewhat surprisingly, signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for six years and $206.5 million.

Now, after his ERA ballooned to 4.37 during a deflating season in the desert, Greinke is an albatross.

The $34 million he’s owed next season could swallow more than a third of the Diamondbacks’ total budget, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney noted. 

That’s the mess new D-backs general manager Mike Hazen inherited. His task is to mop it up, per Olney:

…as Hazen establishes himself with the Diamondbacks, perhaps he could do what his predecessor would have never been in position to do: persuade ownership to dump Greinke and as much of his contract as possible, even if it means eating some of his salary in the years ahead. Greinke’s contract is already a serious impediment for Hazen, as he goes about his work of trying to build a consistent winner in Arizona, and the problem might only get worse if Greinke’s performance continues to decline next season.

It won’t be easy. The Diamondbacks would walk away from any Greinke trade with some egg on their face. On Nov. 9, Hazen said the team is “fully anticipating that Zack is going to be back next year,” per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.

If they can shed a portion of his salary, though, and net a couple of decent prospects, they should jump at the chance.

Despite his down year, Greinke has upside. Between 2013 and 2015, his 13.5 WAR ranks eighth among big league pitchers, according to FanGraphs’ measure.

He’s 33, which means this decline could be real and permanent. But he’s also one season removed from leading MLB in ERA (1.66), ERA+ (222) and WHIP (0.844).

If there were an entry in the dictionary for “high risk, high reward,” it would be a picture of Greinke’s grinning visage.

The only realistic suitors are clubs with gaudy budgets and fertile farms. From that group, three emerge as the most logical. Let’s examine each, and the packages they may be willing to offer.

It’s all speculation at this point, but it should be high on Hazen and Arizona’s due-diligence list. 

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been in rebuild mode since the 2016 trade deadline, jettisoning expensive veterans and adding young talent to a minor league system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 1 in the game. 

Taking on a chunk of Greinke’s salary and giving up prospects for the privilege would be a redirect, to say the least.

New York, though, is always in win-now mode. The Bronx faithful demand it. Its rotation is sketchy after ace Masahiro Tanaka, with mercurial right-hander Michael Pineda, creaky veteran southpaw CC Sabathia and a muddled cast of youngsters filling in the picture.  

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe name-dropped New York among possible Greinke landing spots. Joe Giglio of NJ Advance Media likewise said the Yanks “loom as a possibility” in the Greinke sweepstakes.

New York should refuse to part with any of its top prospects—a group headlined by outfielder Clint Frazier and shortstop Gleyber Torres—even if the D-backs are willing to pick up half of Greinke’s tab or more.

A mid-tier name such as 20-year-old right-hander Drew Finley—the Yankees’ No. 19 prospect, per MLB.com—along with a throw-in player and an offer to absorb the bulk of Greinke’s salary should get the Diamondbacks’ attention.

Still, given New York’s current trajectory, we’ll put the likelihood of this at somewhere between “low” and “not gonna happen.”

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox don’t need to add an ace-level arm with recently minted AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello and David Price already in the fold.

After a disappointing division-series sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians, however, it’s a safe bet president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will have his eyes out for upgrades to any facet of the roster.

Like New York, Boston has a loaded farm system and a hefty payroll. Hazen, meanwhile, was the Sox’s GM last season, so he presumably has a direct line to Dombrowski.

Top prospects such as infielder Yoan Moncada and outfielder Andrew Benintendi shouldn’t even enter the conversation. Perhaps someone like lanky lefty Trey Ball, ranked as the Sox’s No. 14 prospect by MLB.com, or a high-upside gamble like 19-year-old Dominican outfielder Yoan Aybar could whet Arizona’s appetite.

If Boston is going to swing a trade for a starter, it could set its sights on other targets, including the Chicago White Sox‘s Chris Sale or the Detroit Tigers‘ Justin Verlander, as I recently outlined. Greinke would likely come at a lower cost in talent, though, if not dollars.

OK, now the soggy blanket: The Red Sox will pay Price $30 million for at least the next two seasons, at which point the lefty can opt out. They also need to fill the David Ortiz-sized hole in the middle of their lineup. Shelling out for a significant portion of Greinke’s contract would strain the purse strings.

Plus, with both New York and Boston, there’s the question of whether a move to the hitter-happy AL East would help Greinke get his mojo back.

Los Angeles Dodgers

They say you can’t go home again, but the Dodgers and Greinke could test that axiom.

It’s more than a wild fancy. L.A. “expressed interest” in trading for Greinke in August after he cleared waivers, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

The talks “were not substantive and did not advance,” according to Rosenthal’s sources. Still, it shows the door to a Greinke-Dodgers reunion is cracked open.

Ace Clayton Kershaw returned strong from a back injury that cost him two months in 2016, and Japanese import Kenta Maeda was a steady No. 2.

Trade-deadline acquisition Rich Hill is a free agent, however, and the rest of the Dodgers rotation is a mishmash of promising-but-untested youngsters (Julio Urias), middling veterans (Scott Kazmir) and uncertain injury comebacks (Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu). 

Simply putting a Dodgers uniform on won’t return Greinke to his former glory. There are causes for cautious optimism, though.

The Dodgers had the third-best team defense in the NL—and all of baseball—in 2016, while the D-backs had the Senior Circuit’s second-worst, per FanGraphs. Arizona’s Chase Field was baseball’s second-most hitter-friendly yard, per ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, while Dodger Stadium was the second-least. 

That’s not to suggest all of Greinke’s 2016 struggles can be pinned on shoddy defense or his home-field disadvantage. It’s possible, however, that a return to Chavez Ravine could rekindle his All-Star flame.

Like Boston and New York, Los Angeles could hang on to its top MiLB talent and still put together an enticing package. Catcher Austin Barnes—an Arizona State alum and the team’s No. 10 prospect, per MLB.com—would make for a nice centerpiece, as would 21-year-old right-hander and No. 8 prospect Jordan Sheffield. 

The biggest impediment, however, may be the Dodgers’ financial situation.

L.A. boasted baseball’s highest payroll in 2016, but the team is under pressure to tighten its belt to conform to MLB’s debt rules, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. 

That could hinder the club’s ability to bring back key free agents such as third baseman Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, let alone shoulder part of Greinke’s contract. 

The safe bet is on Greinke staying put. The Diamondbacks should keep asking, however, and see if they find a pliable taker.

Last winter’s prize has become this offseason’s toxic asset. What a difference a year makes.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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