Tag: Baseball

The Braves Shouldn’t Be the Team to Break the Prospect Bank for Chris Sale

The Atlanta Braves seem to have a Chris Sale obsession. I say we stage an intervention before it gets any worse.

Who’s with me?

OK, maybe some concessions are in order first. The Braves and Sale are indeed a match made in hot stove heaven from a strictly on-paper perspective. Veteran signees R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon will boost a starting rotation that posted a 4.87 ERA in 2016—but not as much as Sale would.

The lefty ace, currently of the Chicago White Sox, has a 3.04 ERA since 2012 and has finished in the top five of the American League Cy Young voting every year since 2013. Did you know only the best pitchers can do things like that? It’s true.

Sale, 27, isn’t the only ace trade chip on Atlanta’s radar. According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves are also eyeing Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer and Oakland A’s right-hander Sonny Gray.

Sale, however, is their “focus.” And if this report from ESPN.com’s Buster Olney is any indication, said focus is part of a real effort to do something:

It’s possible this is just a PR smokescreen. With back-to-back 90-loss seasons (95 in 2015 and 93 in 2016, to be exact) in their wake and a new ballpark on the horizon for 2017, the Braves may be leaking these interests to generate some goodwill among their fans.

After all, going through with a blockbuster trade for an ace would be quite the departure from what was being said earlier in November.

“You don’t buy No. 1 starters,” Braves general manager John Coppolella said, via O’Brien. “You grow them. You draft them, you develop them. For us, it’s not efficient for us to go out and buy a No. 1 starter. Unless something drastically changes, you won’t see us going after a No. 1 starter.”

Buying a No. 1 starter on this winter’s free-agent market is basically impossible. Rich Hill, 36, is the best option there is, and his age and durability issues make it tough to stick the No. 1 label on him.

As such, the only way a team can snag a No. 1 starter this winter is on the trade market.

Sale is the crown jewel of said market. And not just because of his talent. His contract controls him through 2019 at a total of $39.5 million. 

When Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs crunched the numbers, he put Sale’s surplus value on top of that at $84.5 million. Per other numbers crunched by Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli at The Point of Pittsburgh, that makes Sale worth at least a top-10 hitting or pitching prospect plus a little extra.

But in this winter’s market, that’s likely just the starting point in trade negotiations. The lack of options on the open market and Sale’s combination of name value, on-field value and surplus value puts the White Sox in a position to demand several of a team’s best prospects.

For what it’s worth, the Braves are among the few teams that can do a trade like that.

Keith Law of ESPN.com had their farm system ranked No. 1 in MLB as recently as July. That’s a credit to how well the Braves have rebuilt through trades and the draft. The one untouchable in their system is likely Dansby Swanson, whom the Braves would presumably like to keep as their starting shortstop after his successful breakthrough late in 2016.

Everyone else would presumably be on the table for a Sale trade. Ozzie Albies. Sean Newcomb. Kolby Allard. Ian Anderson. Mike Soroka. Touki Toussaint. Max Fried. And so on.

The Braves would have every reason to give up several of those names if an ace starting pitcher were the missing link between them and contention in the NL East as soon as 2017. But therein lies the rub.

Does anyone think this team is just one player away from being ready to win?

Sure, the Braves did go 37-35 after the All-Star break in 2016. But they did so while allowing 23 more runs than they scored. That’s a glaring warning not to read too much into their surge.

It’s early, but the 2017 projections at FanGraphs only have the Braves improving from 68 wins to 74 wins. Sounds about right for a team that would be mostly the same except with full seasons from Swanson, who is very good, and Dickey, Colon and Matt Kemp, who are not very good.

There’s not a ton of uncertainty elsewhere in the NL East, either. The Washington Nationals are going to be good. The New York Mets will at least have their arms. The Miami Marlins will at least have their bats. None of the three figures to plummet and open a door for the Braves to sneak through.

Of course, the Braves wouldn’t be under too much pressure to win immediately with Sale. But playing the long game with him doesn’t make much sense, either.

With Sale due for free agency after 2019, the clock would begin ticking in 2018. One problem there is that trading for him will have emptied the farm system of quite a few prospects who might have been graduated to the majors or used in trades.

That would force the Braves to load up in the 2017 and 2018 free-agent markets that will be better stocked than this one. But other teams will be looking to do the same thing, and even the Braves’ new stadium may only be so helpful in allowing them to spend competitively.

A better idea would be to give up on Sale and prioritize Archer instead. He has a contract that runs for two years longer at virtually the same price. His prospect cost may be the same because of that, but at least it would put the Braves in a better position to play the long game. And with a pitcher who’s darn good in his own right.

Or, the Braves could do nothing and continue to build from within. They’re headed in the right direction in that regard. Rather than try to jump ahead, keeping it slow and steady is the way to go.

It’s not often an intervention urges the subject to keep doing what they’re doing, but…Hey, you gotta do what you gotta do.

                         

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Andrew Cashner to Rangers: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Andrew Cashner turned in arguably the worst season of his career in 2016, but the Texas Rangers took a chance on him Friday to the tune of a one-year, $10 million contract.

Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported the terms of the agreement. TR Sullivan of MLB.com also passed along word of the free-agent signing.

Cashner started his career with the Chicago Cubs and pitched down the stretch of the 2016 season for the Miami Marlins after they acquired him from the San Diego Padres via trade. He posted a 5.98 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 12 appearances for Miami, which both would have represented career-worst numbers throughout an entire season.

However, Cashner flashed his potential as a No. 2 or 3 starter in 2013 and 2014 with the Padres. He posted a 1.13 WHIP in each season and appeared to be coming into his own as an impact pitcher at the major league level. Still, there was a drastic decline in performance the next two years:

Injuries are part of the concern, as he went on disabled list in 2016 with a strained neck and dealt with a shoulder injury and elbow injury in 2014 that limited him to just 19 starts. Considering he hasn’t been the same since that 2014 campaign, it is not hard to speculate his health impacted his overall performance.

At his best, Cashner’s fastball often exceeds 95 mph, per FanGraphs. If he can remain healthy in 2017 and tap into the effective power pitcher he was from 2013-14, the Rangers will end up with one of the better under-the-radar signings of the offseason. 

He’ll likely join a rotation headlined by Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. Finding more mid-rotation options to bolster the group behind those co-aces was one of the biggest things on the team’s offseason to-do list. A bounce-back year from the newest addition would be a key step in the right direction.

He is still just 30 years old and should be relatively fresh considering he has never pitched more than 184.2 innings in a season throughout his career. Cashner’s new team hopes that translates into an effective 2017 effort.  

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Kris Bryant Joins Dustin Pedroia, Cal Ripken in Elite Category After Winning MVP

Kris Bryant won the NL MVP on Thursday, joining Dustin Pedroia and Cal Ripken as the only players in MLB history to win Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series within their first two seasons.

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McCann, Reddick Give Houston Strong Vets to Help Push Young Astros Over the Hump

On Thursday, the Houston Astros sent a message to their fanbase, and it was loud and clear: We want to get back.

Back on track. Back to the postseason. Back into position as one of baseball’s up-and-coming contenders.

The message was delivered with a pair of moves. The ‘Stros engineered a trade with the New York Yankees, flipping pitching prospects Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman for veteran catcher Brian McCann, per the Yankees PR staff. They also inked right fielder Josh Reddick to a four-year, $52 million deal, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan.

With that, Houston plugged holes behind the dish and in the outfield and added a pair of solid veteran pieces to bolster the club’s youthful core.

Let’s start with McCann. The 32-year-old backstop became superfluous for the Yankees after the emergence of rookie sensation Gary Sanchez. While he isn’t the player who made seven All-Star teams between 2006 and 2013 with the Atlanta Braves, he still has value.

McCann hit 20 home runs in 2016 despite ceding playing time to Sanchez down the stretch and rated as the American League‘s third-best pitch-framer, per StatCorner.

He’ll replace free-agent catcher Jason Castro, also a lefty swinger, and represents an offensive upgrade across the board:

McCann is owed $17 million in each of the next two seasons, but the Yankees will pay $5.5 million of that, per ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney. In turn, the ‘Stros surrendered some talent. Abreu became the No. 10 prospect in New York’s loaded farm system, per MLB.com.

It takes something to get somethingand Houston got something.

“Brian McCann is a great fit for the Astros, as he is not only a good defensive catcher, he is also a left-handed hitter with proven run-producing ability,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said in a statement, per the Houston Chronicle‘s Jake Kaplan. “His experience and his ability to impact his teammates will be a significant benefit to our team.”

Reddick is coming off an injury-shortened year in which he played just 115 games with the Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Dodgers.

In 2015, however, he hit .272 with 20 home runs, and he’s a plus defensive outfielder who could slot into left with George Springer the unmovable incumbent in right.

Reddicklike McCannrepresents an upgrade over his predecessor, free agent Colby Rasmus, who posted a .206/.286/.355 slash line in 2016. Reddick hit .281/.345/.405.

A four-year commitment north of $50 million may raise a few eyebrows, but it could end up being below market value in a weak free-agent class.

In 2015, the Astros finished 86-76, slid into the postseason as a wild card and pushed the eventual champion Kansas City Royals to five games in a division series.

Last year, they missed the dance with an 84-78 mark and wore the scarlet “R” for regression.

Still, Houston boasts an enviable offensive core, headlined by second baseman Jose Altuve (.338 average, 24 HR, 30 SB), shortstop Carlos Correa (.274 average, 20 HR, 96 RBI), Springer (.815 OPS, 29 HR, 82 RBI) and 2015 No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman.

Astros starting pitchers ranked in the middle of the MLB pack in 2016 with a 4.37 ERA, with 2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel taking a big stumble. The bullpen is a strength, but Houston could use more pitching, even after signing sinkerballer Charlie Morton to a two-year, incentive-laden deal Wednesday, per Kaplan.

The ‘Stros, though, are squarely in the mix in the wide-open AL West. The defending division champion Texas Rangers are nominal favorites, but Houston is a few key moves from vaulting over the hump.

McCann and Reddick count as key moves. They may preclude other high-profile machinations, including the intriguing rumored trade for the Detroit Tigers‘ Miguel Cabrera.

The takeaway, however, is that the Astros are being aggressive early. They’re filling needs. They want to get back.

Message received.

    

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Mike Trout Is Bull’s-Eye Choice for AL MVP as MLB’s Consensus Best Player

It feels like an upset that Mike Trout won the American League MVP. That says enough about where the baseball world is.

Or rather, where it’s been.

In the weeks, days and hours leading up to Thursday’s big announcement, it seemed like everyone was bracing for Trout (and fellow finalist Jose Altuve) to fall short of Mookie Betts in the AL MVP vote.

Trout had numbers, as usual. But Betts had numbers and what’s historically a big advantage: His Boston Red Sox made the playoffs and also won 19 more games then Trout’s Los Angeles Angels.

But whaddya know! Turns out the Baseball Writers’ Association of America had a surprise in store. For the second time in his career, Trout is the American League’s Most Valuable Player.

And it wasn’t even close. Trout received 356 points to Betts’ 311 and Altuve’s 227. Trout also received 19 first-place votes to Betts’ nine and Altuve’s zero.

“It’s crazy,” the 25-year-old said on MLB Network, via Austin Laymance of MLB.com. “Can’t take anything away from Mookie and Jose Altuve, great guys, great team guys. I’m speechless, man.”

The Houston Astros would have struggled to get to even 84 wins without Altuve. The tiny-yet-fierce second baseman won the AL batting title with his .338 average and also chipped in 24 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

Likewise, the Red Sox would have been a lot worse without Betts’ .897 OPS, 31 homers and 26 steals. This is not to mention the defense he played in right field, which earned him a Gold Glove and more defensive runs saved than any other defender.

With respect to Altuve, it’s Betts’ performance that stands out. And the fact it was all in service of a winning team would have earned him some hardware on Thursday under normal circumstances.

You know, the same circumstances that contributed to Trout’s falling short in 2012, 2013 and 2015. The circumstances that said, “Sorry, dude. You’re really good, but your team missed the playoffs.”

This year, the writers flipped the script and chose circumstances many have been begging them to choose for the last five years: All that matters is who’s the best.

Because this is an article in honor of Trout’s value, here are the three letters you’ve been expecting: W-A-R. 

Yeah, it just wouldn’t be a proper AL MVP discussion without referencing Trout’s value as measured by wins above replacement. And whether you prefer the Baseball-Reference.comFanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus version, he easily topped both of his competitors:

Betts and Altuve shouldn’t feel bad. Everyone else in the AL finished behind Trout in WAR this year too. That’s the way it’s been for five seasons now.

And no, that’s not normal. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Trout’s five straight seasons leading the AL in WAR is the longest stretch since a fella named Babe Ruth back in the 1920s and ’30s. There’s your daily reminder that when it comes to Trout and WAR, the most relevant names are typically legendary ones.

WAR, of course, is a convoluted stat. But as a measure of all-around value, it usually has the right idea. 

Trout was a monster at the plate in 2016. He hit .315 with 29 home runs and a .991 OPS. He led all of baseball with his .441 on-base percentage and his 174 OPS+, which adjusts his OPS in part to account for the huge dimensions of Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

After a couple of down seasons, Trout also got back to being a monster on the bases. He swiped 30 bases after stealing just 27 in the last two seasons combined and finished barely behind Betts for the MLB lead in total baserunning value.

On defense, the advanced metrics rated Trout’s play in center field as somewhere between acceptable (minus-0.3 UZR) and quite good (six DRS). Given that center field is more difficult and more important than left field and right field, even merely acceptable center field defense is welcomed.

Trout has offered nits to pick in past seasons. In 2014, he struck out too much. Last season, his already declining baserunning got especially mediocre. Et cetera.

But in 2016? A guy who was already regarded as the best player in baseball turned in arguably his best season yet. The best got even better.

The only reason to deny Trout the MVP was the one most everyone expected to be used against him: He didn’t play for a winning team. This is true. The Angels won just 74 games, and even that seems like a lot for a team that was a ghostly shimmer outside of Trout.

But as Dayn Perry did a wonderful job of breaking down at CBSSports.com, the notion that MVPs must come from winning teams is manufactured. The voting guidelines mention no such thing, nor are there any ambiguous hints toward such a guideline. The only thing ambiguous is how to define “valuable.”

If we’re being fair, that means voters need not consider only WAR and its assorted parameters when weighing MVP options. It would be perfectly reasonable, for example, to make a case for why Betts deserved extra consideration over Trout because of how he specifically helped the Red Sox get to 93 wins and into the postseason.

Thing is: That case doesn’t exist.

You could make the case that Betts pushed the Red Sox into the playoffs when it mattered most in September. But he didn’t. His OPS in the season’s final month was just .762. Among the many players who outperformed him was Trout, who had a .948 OPS.

You could also make the case that Betts had a lot of clutch hits throughout the year. But he didn’t do that either. He had a .907 OPS in high-leverage situations. That landed far short of the MLB leader in that category.

Who, by the way, was Mike Trout.

His upset on Thursday is therefore of the pleasant variety. This is not a case of the MVP going to the best player who also had X, Y and Z. It’s a case of it going to the best player, period.

What a concept! What’s say we try it again sometime?


    

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Justin Verlander Defends Kate Upton’s Tweets Regarding MLB Cy Young Award Loss

Kate Upton, the fiancee of Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander, expressed her frustration with this year’s American League Cy Young voting Wednesday when it was announced Boston Red Sox pitcher Rick Porcello won the award despite receiving fewer first-place votes.  

In a series of NSFW tweets, Upton had some pointed words for baseball writers who failed to include Verlander on their ballots:

Hey @MLB I thought I was the only person allowed to f–k @JustinVerlander ?! What 2 writers didn’t have him on their ballot? He had the majority of 1st place votes and 2 writers didn’t have him on their ballots?!! can you pick more out of touch people to vote?@MLB. Sorry Rick but you didn’t get any 1st place votes? you didn’t win. #ByeFelicia@MLB keep up with the times and fire those writers

On Thursday, Verlander explained the reasons behind Upton’s outrage in a Twitter conversation with the New York Daily News‘ Mark Feinsand: 

Verlander finished the 2016 season 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA, league-best 1.001 WHIP and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Porcello, meanwhile, went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a league-best ratio of 5.91 strikeouts to one walk.

According to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, the two voters who failed to include Verlander on their ballots were Fred Goodall of the Associated Press and Bill Chastain of MLB.com. 

Chastain admitted in a conversation with Feinsand that he sent his ballot in a week before the regular season ended, and he disclosed that his choice for first place was between Porcello and Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton.

Over the final week of the season, Verlander pitched 14.2 innings and allowed one earned run. In his lone start during that same stretch, Porcello allowed eight hits and three earned runs in a 5-3 Red Sox win over the Toronto Blue Jays

“I feel bad that people are upset about this; I did the best I could,” Chastain said. “I went around the clubhouse, I asked guys. I agonized over this. The biggest thing for me was between (Baltimore closer Zach) Britton and Porcello.”

Tampa Bay Times writer and chairman of the BBWAA’s Tampa Bay chapter Marc Topkin noted neither Chastain nor Goodall voted with malicious intent.

“Both Bill and Fred are longtime veteran, experienced baseball writers and certainly have the ability to make what they felt were the proper decisions,” he said, per Feinsand. 

While the 33-year-old Verlander may have come up short in the voting, his production throughout the second half of the season indicated he should remain effective well into his mid-30s. 

After he went 8-6 before the All-Star break, Verlander posted an 8-3 record, 1.96 ERA, 134 strikeouts and 24 walks in 110.1 innings after the break. 

Based on those stellar stats, Verlander should be in the Cy Young conversation for a couple of more seasons as he seeks to maintain his status as one of the AL’s premier pitchers. 

       

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise. 

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Josh Reddick to Astros: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Veteran outfielder Josh Reddick has reached an agreement with the Houston Astros, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported Thursday.

Passan noted the deal is for $52 million over four seasons.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed Reddick will sign with the Astros, pending a physical.

Reddick is a streaky player, but his net impact on a team has almost always been positive. He’s accumulated 15.9 WAR across eight seasons, and he’s rated above replacement level every year except 2009, when he played just 27 games for the Boston Red Sox in his debut campaign, per FanGraphs.

The 29-year-old Georgia native split the 2016 season between the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a career-high .345 on-base percentage in 115 games but racked up just 10 home runs, his lowest total since 2011.

His up-and-down play was on full display after he joined the Dodgers in a midseason trade. He hit just .161 with a miserable .395 OPS in August before rebounding with a strong September to help the club clinch a playoff berth by winning the National League West.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times highlighted the type of production the outfielder can provide when he’s in a zone at the plate:

Interestingly, Reddick told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register the resurgence wasn’t about making changes but rather sticking to his normal routine until he broke out of the slump.

“I learned that probably last year,” he said. “For the most part, when I’m going well, my cage work is limited to almost none at all. Pregame, right before the game, I go in there and do my routine.”

Another thing he didn’t spend much time thinking about was his impending foray into the free-agent market. He explained his mindset early in the season, per Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com.

“I’m one of the guys that doesn’t think about that,” Reddick said. “I’m not going into the box thinking, ‘If I don’t get this run in, or I don’t get this amount of home runs, I’m not going to be the free-agent player I need to be.’ That’s just something I’ve put very far back in my mind.”

The plan worked. Even with the drop-off in the power department, Reddick’s overall performance allowed him to maintain his value.

In the end, Reddick is heading to his third team in the past year. The upside is that going through the transition of joining the Dodgers should make the latest change of scenery easier to deal with during spring training.

Now the question is whether Reddick can put everything together. He’s shown the ability to hit for power, with 32 homers in 2012, and he recorded a strong on-base percentage this past season. If he combines those, he could be a bargain.

It’s a risk worth taking for the Astros. Even if he doesn’t have a huge year at the plate, he’ll likely be a solid hitter who plays plus defense, and that combination carries plenty of value.

                                                               

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MLB, Rangers Investigating Alleged Sexual Assault Involving Academy Players

Major League Baseball and the Texas Rangers are reportedly investigating an alleged sexual assault involving multiple players at the Rangers’ academy in the Dominican Republic.

On Thursday, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported the alleged assault involved four players from the Rangers’ academy. Charges have not been filed.

The Rangers released a statement confirming they are cooperating with MLB during the investigation, per Rosenthal:

The Texas Rangers became aware of an incident at our Academy in the Dominican Republic and we acted promptly to open an investigation. We have reported the incident and are cooperating fully with Major League Baseball and the authorities in the Dominican Republic. With this being an ongoing investigation, we will have no further comment at this time.

Citing sources, Rosenthal reported the players allegedly involved were placed on administrative leave under the guidelines of the minor league domestic violence policy. They will reportedly remain on leave until the investigation is complete.

According to a 2011 article from ESPN.com’s Richard Durrett, the Rangers’ academy—like several in the Dominican Republic—is designed to immerse developing players in baseball on an all-day basis. 

It’s a 24/7 baseball environment,” Rangers field coordinator Jayce Tingler said at the time. “We have a chance to teach them, get them game experience, help them learn English and make them stronger.

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Athletics Owner Lew Wolff Steps Down: Latest Details, Reaction

Oakland Athletics managing partner and co-owner Lew Wolff is stepping down. 

According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Athletics primary owner John Fisher will be taking over Wolff’s role.

Slusser also reported Wolff will be selling a majority of his stake in the Major League Baseball franchise to the other partners and will be named chairman emeritus. 

The A’s officially announced the organizational shake-up Thursday. Dave Kaval moves into the role of team president, and Michael Crowley will transition into a senior adviser role. 

Kaval said the A’s are committed to staying in Oakland, per John Hickey of Bay Area News Group. Kaval said the team is looking at several potential sites but likes the idea of a “ballpark village” concept, according to Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area.

Wolff was part of a group that purchased the A’s from Stephen Schott and Ken Hofmann in 2005 for $180 million. The franchise has made four playoff appearances since that group took over; most recently, Oakland lost to the Kansas City Royals in the American League Wild Card Game in 2014. 

The A’s organization, particularly Wolff, has drawn heavy criticism in recent years for a number of reasons, both on and off the field. 

In October 2015, Eno Sarris of ESPN.com wrote about some of the issues that have plagued the A’s under their current ownership group:

Wolff has long refused to spend on the players or the stadium, which has led to situations like Scott Hatteberg at first base and sewage in the dugout. And fans are, quite frankly, tired of the concrete bunker that is the Coliseum — ranked worst in all of sports in stadium quality and fan-friendliness. Local transportation problems have contributed, and the stadium doesn’t sit in a part of Oakland that might attract foot traffic. 

The problems at the Oakland Coliseum have been well-documented, including several instances of flooding after heavy rains that have led to sewage seeping into the building. 

The A’s haven’t finished higher than 18th in payroll since 2000, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They have made questionable trades, notably sending Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays in November 2014 before he was eligible for arbitration when his salary would exceed the MLB minimum for the first time.

Wolff’s decision to step down from a heavy hands-on role with the Athletics to a less prominent position gives the franchise an opportunity to move forward with greater success than they have had in recent years. 

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Rick Porcello Is Worthy of Cy Young, but How Did Justin Verlander Lose?

Justin Verlander won the popular vote, which is worth about as much this week as it was last week.

There’s a system for these elections, and we all have to come together and accept Rick Porcello as our 2016 American League Cy Young winner. Hey, it’s not that bad.

Porcello had a Cy-worthy season, especially if you’re one of those who still believe a starting pitcher’s goal every time out is to try to win the game. Porcello had 22 of those much-derided but oh-so-valuable wins, and in his 20 starts from June 18 to the end of the season, his Boston Red Sox went 17-3.

If you’re looking for reasons the Red Sox won the AL East after two years finishing in last place, their ability to win nearly every game Porcello started for three-plus months figures prominently on the list.

And if you’re looking for reasons Porcello came out on top when the Cy Young Award was handed out Wednesday night, well, it’s hard not to look at the voting process. It’s hard to explain that while nearly half the voters put Verlander atop their ballot (14 of 30, as opposed to just eight for Porcello), most of the other half had him well down the list or out of the top five altogether.

If you’re going to take this year’s voting as a sign more voters believe in wins—Porcello and National League winner Max Scherzer led the two leagues in that much-maligned category—you have to acknowledge Porcello won mostly because a large majority of voters had him as their second choice.

Porcello won because he received 18 second-place votes, to only two for Verlander. With seven points for every first-place vote and four points for each second-place vote, Porcello had a commanding lead even before we get to the fact two writers both left Verlander off their five-pitcher ballot.

It’s a little curious the two who didn’t vote for Verlander (Fred Goodall of the Associated Press and Bill Chastain of MLB.com) both cover the Tampa Bay Rays, especially since in his only 2016 start against the Rays, Verlander allowed one earned run in seven innings. Maybe they were expecting a no-hitter, or maybe they were just impressed by Porcello going 5-0 in six starts against the Rays this year.

For the record, if Goodall and Chastain had put Verlander fourth or fifth, he still would have lost.

But hey, what’s a contested election without a bit of controversy in Florida?

And what’s a contested election in 2016 without celebrity involvement, with a little salty language mixed in? Kate Upton, Verlander’s fiancee, reacted to the vote with this tweet (Warning: NSFW language):

Verlander’s younger brother Ben, a minor league outfielder with the Detroit Tigers, tweeted the same chart Justin used before the results came out:

Justin himself is vacationing in Italy, which may be the reason he didn’t tweet a reaction himself. Besides that, he and Porcello were teammates for six seasons with the Tigers; don’t expect angry words between these two top candidates.

“Justin had a great year,” Porcello said on a conference call. “I learned a lot from him.”

They’re not alike as pitchers, with Verlander’s power showing in his big edge in strikeouts (254-189). Porcello relies more on his sinker and getting ground balls.

There are differences off the field, too, and not just because Verlander has become more of a celebrity himself. While Verlander can discuss his numbers and the relative merits of all the Cy Young candidates, Porcello said he barely thought about the award until the finalists were announced last week.

“I just figured whatever’s going to happen is going to happen,” Porcello said.

What happened was all those wins helped Porcello get a few first-place votes and a ton of second-place votes, and it ultimately helped him win an award Verlander took going away in 2011.

“I do believe there are a lot of things [about wins and losses] you can’t control, but I also believe there are a lot of things you can control,” Porcello said. “There’s a way to go out and pitch to win a game, and there’s a way to go out and pitch not to lose a game.”

He went on to talk about pitching aggressively, and how that can help a team play better defense and perhaps even get off the field and get back to scoring runs. Whether you agree with him or not, it’s clear Porcello (only 32 walks in 223 innings) pitched aggressively this season.

He pitched confidently, and he pitched like a winner. He pitched like a Cy Young winner, and regardless of whether you like the election process or agree with the result, he is a worthy winner.

As for anyone who wants to say Verlander was even more worthy, fine. But in this race, finishing second isn’t all that bad.

   

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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