Kuzul

Clayton Kershaw‘s worst postseason misadventures have mostly been tales of his having it and then losing it.

In Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, he never had it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers‘ ace left-hander was long gone by the time Yasiel Puig grounded into a double play to close a 5-0 win for the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Saturday night—sending them to their first World Series since 1945 and that much closer to their first championship since 1908. After setting out in his latest attempt to save the Dodgers from elimination, Kershaw lasted only five innings and allowed all five of Chicago’s runs.

That only four of those runs were earned is a small consolation prize. Kershaw’s career postseason ERA is up to 4.55 anyway. That’s the highest of any pitcher with at least 85 postseason innings.

And as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Kershaw’s Game 6 performance was just the latest case of his being at his worst when the Dodgers need him most:

This isn’t the only reason L.A. has yet to turn any of its four straight NL West titles into a pennant or a World Series. But it is a reason. And a big one, at that.

Of course, the Dodgers may not have staved off elimination Saturday even if Kershaw had pitched like the three-time Cy Young winner they know him to be. Chicago pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Aroldis Chapman combined to allow only four baserunners, and all four were erased on three double plays and a pickoff. It was 27 up, and 27 down. In circumstances like those, there’s only so much a starting pitcher can do.

It is the primary function of the starting pitcher, however, to at least give his team a chance to win. Kershaw couldn’t even do that.

The vibrations were bad from the beginning. After allowing only two hits and no runs in seven innings in a 1-0 win in Game 2, Kershaw served up a pair of hits and a run to the first two batters he faced Saturday when Dexter Fowler doubled and Kris Bryant singled him home. Then there was an error by Andrew Toles in left field that set up Ben Zobrist for a sacrifice fly.

At the time, Toles’ error sounded like the opening notes of a familiar tune.

Kershaw’s postseason failures are a compelling narrative, but within it is contained a subplot of his teammates letting him down. As August Fagerstrom covered at FanGraphs, it’s typically been the guys in the Dodgers bullpen who have left him unsupported. The L.A. defense’s failure to help him seemed like the next logical step.

But it was also hard to ignore just how un-Kershaw he looked in the first inning. After needing only 84 pitches to get through seven innings in Game 2, he needed 30 to get through one in Game 6. His velocity was there, but he couldn’t get his fastball to go where he wanted it to.

Kershaw couldn’t fix that as the evening wore on, and it became apparent as he threw more and more pitches that he was dealing with another problem. His curveball, one of the great weapons of mass destruction in the sport, was not there. 

Per Brooks Baseball, he threw only 15 of them out of 93 pitches. And as ESPN.com’s Keith Law and many others observed, few of them were any good:

This seemed to become as obvious to Cubs hitters as it was to everyone watching at Wrigley Field or at home. They had come out swinging against Kershaw to begin with and only seemed to grow more comfortable once they realized they could sit on his fastball and slider.

Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo did the honors of demolishing both pitches. Contreras deposited a hanging slider in the left field bleachers in the fourth inning. Rizzo went even further into the right field bleachers when he jumped on a sidearm fastball in the fifth inning.

“I think that the first thing I saw is the Cubs’ hitters, they had a great game plan tonight,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, per Ken Gurnick and Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “And there was a couple mistake sliders that they took advantage of. But they were running counts, they used the whole field, and there was traffic all night for Clayton. And he gave it everything he had, but when they did—when he did make a mistake, they made him pay.”

Officially, Saturday’s outing is not the worst postseason performance of Kershaw’s career.

Per ESPN.com, he put up a game score of 39. He’s done worse in two starts since the Dodgers began their run four years ago: Game 6 of the 2013 NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals and Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals the next year.

But while Kershaw’s latest effort may not be his worst on paper, it may be the worst in practicality. He at least offered glimmers of hope with two shutout innings in the former and six one-run innings in the latter. A glimmer of hope never even appeared on the Chicago horizon Saturday.

Credit where it’s due: There was never a feeling that the Dodgers had the Cubs right where they wanted them even after they took a 2-1 series lead thanks to Kershaw and Rich Hill in Games 2 and 3. Beating a team that won 103 games in the regular season was never going to be that easy. In outscoring the Dodgers 23-6 in the final three games of the series, the Cubs proved just that.

“The better team won the series,” said Roberts, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

The thing about aces, though, is that they’re supposed to be the equalizers.

A truly great starting pitcher can level any playing field and turn a squad of underdogs into snarling beasts that rip all reasonable expectations to shreds. Madison Bumgarner did it in 2014. Josh Beckett did it in 2003. Et cetera.

Kershaw has the power to do this. It’s not the constant favor of Lady Luck that’s allowed him to carve out a career 2.37 ERA and the best adjusted ERA in history. He is a perfect pitcher, combining excellent stuff with pinpoint command and a competitive fire that can melt flesh right off the bone.

But for the life of him, he just can’t get his many talents to stick in October. And until he does, disappointment will keep finding the Dodgers.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Kyle Schwarber’s powerful bat has been absent from the Chicago Cubs lineup since the third game of the 2016 season, when the outfielder suffered a torn ACL and LCL. His availability for the World Series has yet to be determined.

Continue for updates.

Latest on Schwarber’s Rehab

Monday, Oct. 24

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reported Schwarber will serve as a designated hitter in the Arizona Fall League on Monday and will fly to Cleveland to join the Cubs afterward.

Epstein Comments on Schwarber’s Status

Saturday, Oct. 22

“He’s made it to a best-case scenario after six months,” Cubs president Theo Epstein said to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com regarding Schwarber’s recovery. “We’re not ruling anything in; we’re not ruling anything out. We’re not getting ahead of ourselves. We have a lot of work here before this becomes pertinent.”

Schwarber Has Missed Most of Cubs’ Historic Season

The second-year outfielder suffered the injury when he collided with teammate Dexter Fowler while pursuing a fly ball during an April 7 game against the Arizona Diamondbacks:

Schwarber underwent surgery April 19 and missed the remainder of the regular season.

But Epstein suggested the outfielder is on the cusp of making an unlikely return if the Cubs win one more game thanks to his hard work during rehabilitation, per Rogers:

It was a pleasant surprise. We got news that was better than expected. …

He asked for a chance to do this. With as hard as Kyle has worked and as much as this means to him — and potentially us — we wanted to give him that opportunity. …

We’re going to evaluate him day to day from a medical standpoint and a baseball standpoint.

With the Cubs having made it to the World Series for the first time since 1945, they could add a bat that hit 16 home runs with 43 RBI in just 69 games last season as they try and clinch their first title since 1908.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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With the Cleveland Indians waiting for their opponent and the National League Championship Series between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers nearing its conclusion, World Series predictions continue to roll in for the three teams still alive in the 2016 playoffs.

While it isn’t surprising that the Cubbies have made it this far considering they had the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season, pre-playoff picks suggest few expected the Indians and Dodgers to still be in the hunt at this point.

As the start of the Fall Classic draws closer, here is a look at predictions for the World Series winner from some of the top experts in baseball.

FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight uses statistical models to make predictions across multiple sports including baseball.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Cubs are favored to win the World Series with a 51 percent chance, followed by the Indians at 39 percent and the Dodgers at 10 percent.

Chicago is also a heavy favorite in the NLCS with an 81 percent chance to get past L.A.

The numbers make plenty of sense, as the Cubs were the best team in baseball during the regular season and don’t seem to have a weakness.

Their starting rotation is great from top to bottom with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey. They also boast an elite closer in Aroldis Chapman.

On top of that, Chicago is capable of getting production from anywhere in its lineup thanks to the contributions of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Ben Zobrist, among others.

Cleveland, on the other hand, is without ace pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, while Trevor Bauer’s status remains unclear after cutting his pinkie finger on a drone.

Despite that and everything the stats suggest, Tribe owner Paul Dolan believes his team may be meant to win it all, per Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com:

In February or March of many years, we foresee a team that can win. And then the story develops and something happens and we don’t. This has been that year where everything goes right. Even when something goes wrong, it turns into something right. I’ve heard ‘Team of Destiny’ mentioned a few times. It sure feels like something like that.

Both the Cubs and Indians have had unexplained collapses and shortcomings in the playoffs over the years despite fielding great teams.

The result is that Chicago hasn’t won the World Series since 1908, while Cleveland hasn’t accomplished its ultimate goal since 1948.

Both may be due to end their respective droughts from a statistical perspective, and FiveThirtyEight favors the Cubs to do precisely that.

ESPN

ESPN polled 32 of its experts prior to the start of the MLB playoffs, and only one of them has a chance to correctly call both World Series participants as well as the winner.

According to ESPN.com, Adam Rubin predicted a clash between the Indians and Cubs in the Fall Classic, which will occur if Chicago takes care of business in one of the next two games.

David Schoenfield also picked Cleveland to go all the way, but he picked the Indians to lose to the San Francisco Giants.

Eric Karabell was the only expert to predict the Dodgers would reach the World Series, but he had them losing to the Boston Red Sox.

Rubin chose the Cubs over the Indians in the World Series, but he was far from the only one to predict that Chicago would end its long title drought. In fact, 19 experts chose the Cubs, which was more than any other team, while no one chose the Indians or Dodgers.

The confidence in the Cubs is understandable, but recent history hasn’t been good to them when it comes to closing out the NLCS and reaching the World Series, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

Regardless of whether the Cubs or Dodgers reach the World Series, they will be at somewhat of a disadvantage to the Indians.

The fact that Cleveland beat the Toronto Blue Jays in five games has given the team extra rest and allowed it to set up its starting rotation however it pleases.

That may not matter because the team lacks great starters behind Corey Kluber due to myriad injuries, but any rest in October is a luxury after such a long season.

USA Today

Like ESPN, USA Today polled multiple experts before the playoffs started, and they too were largely behind the Cubs to win it all.

While no expert correctly predicted the World Series since nobody chose the Indians to reach the Fall Classic, six of the seven had the Cubs making it to the end, while Gabe Lacques picked the Dodgers to win the NLCS.

Of the six experts who penciled in the Cubs as NL champions, Steve Gardner, Bob Nightengale, Jorge L. Ortiz and Ted Berg believed they would win the World Series as well.

Pressure is an immeasurable factor, but after winning the most games during the regular season and getting picked by so many to end its supposed World Series curse, Chicago is under the most pressure to win.

Cleveland is playing with house money to some degree since none of the aforementioned experts picked the Indians to win, likely because their starting rotation as been depleted.

The Indians do have a big advantage over both the Cubs and Dodgers in the bullpen, though, as Cody Allen and championship series MVP Andrew Miller carried them through the first two rounds by pitching in any and all situations.

Miller, in particular, put forth an historic performance to push the Tribe into the World Series:

Bullpen dominance has gone a long way toward championship success in recent years, as the Kansas City Royals largely rode their relievers to a World Series triumph last season.

The Indians have a chance to do the same, but they’ll still be heavy underdogs if the Cubs can seal the deal against the Dodgers.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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The Cleveland Indians earned home-field advantage for the 2016 World Series by virtue of the American League’s All-Star Game triumph over the National League, which means we can officially take a look at how the schedule for this year’s Fall Classic will shape up.

The best-of-seven championship series will pit the Indians against either the Chicago Cubs or Los Angeles Dodgers, and odds favor the Cubs even though they’ve historically failed to break through when presented with the opportunity.

Chicago is 0-6 in its last six National League Championship Series games with a trip to the World Series on the line, per ESPN Stats & Info, but data from WhoWins.com suggests the Cubs are in a spot to exorcise those demons.

Specifically, teams holding 3-2 leads in a best-of-seven format have gone on to win the series 70.4 percent of the time in a 98-series sample.

So before taking a peek at how the Indians will try to quell their eventual National League competition, here’s a rundown of when and where you can catch this year’s World Series:

While it’s impossible to make a firm prediction for the World Series without knowing who the Indians will square off against, we can examine how they would fare against their prospective competition after they didn’t play a single game against the Cubs or Dodgers in the regular season.

From a pitching standpoint, Cleveland has been head and shoulders above the rest of its postseason peers.

The Indians boast a 1.77 ERA through eight playoff games, which compares favorably to the Cubs’ mark of 3.25 and the Dodgers’ tally of 4.60. Cleveland has also posted three shutouts—one less than all other playoff qualifiers combined.

Perhaps more frightening is the way Cleveland’s bullpen has performed.

To date, Indians relievers have posted a 1.67 ERA, 41 strikeouts and seven walks while holding opponents to a .212 average through 32.1 innings.

Conversely, the Cubs and Dodgers have bullpen ERAs of 3.71 and 4.29, respectively, in the playoffs, with opponents batting better than .240 against both units.

The good news for the NL contenders comes at the plate.

While none of the three remaining teams have bashed the ball to a stellar degree under the postseason lights, the Dodgers lead the pack with a .228 average and .322 on-base percentage.

That said, the Cubs lead the Dodgers in terms of total bases (119-115), doubles (18-9) and slugging percentage (.381-.355). The Indians are hanging steady with a .380 slugging percentage buoyed by 11 home runs.

Predicting a winner based on those comparisons alone would be foolish, but the Indians have to feel good about their chances considering the way their pitching staff has dominated in conjunction with a solid offense that has found ways to generate power and produce runs to create sufficient cushions.

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The 2016 World Series could be set on Saturday night with the Chicago Cubs looking for their first berth in the Fall Classic since 1945 with a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

While the two National League teams continue to duke it out, the American League champion Cleveland Indians patiently wait to know who their opponent will be when the best-of-seven series kicks off on Tuesday from Progressive Field. 

Cleveland has already had a year to remember with the Cavaliers winning their first NBA title in June. The Indians will look to join them and end their own 67-year championship drought. 

2016 World Series Schedule

Player to Watch: Andrew Miller

Baseball is a sport designed to make it nearly impossible for one player to carry his team in a way that can happen in the NBA or NFL. 

While Andrew Miller needed help from the Cleveland starting staff to put the team in a position to use him to protect a lead, he has been operating at a video-game level throughout this postseason, with Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports providing the statistical evidence:

It’s fun to see those numbers, but they somehow look more impressive when you are able to see the weapons Miller is using to destroy hitters. 

This is what Miller did in the seventh inning of Game 2 against the Toronto Blue Jays, via MLB.com:

If the Dodgers end up coming back to defeat the Cubs in the NLCS, good luck to them trying to attack Miller. 

It’s no secret that Los Angeles’ lineup has had problems against left-handed pitching in 2016. The group had a collective .213/.290/.332 slash line versus southpaws, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Things are so bad for the Dodgers against lefties they had Carlos Ruiz hit in the cleanup spot against Jon Lester in Game 5 of the NLCS with the hopes he could provide a spark. 

The Cubs would be an interesting matchup for Miller because they were dynamite against left-handed pitching this season with an .807 OPS, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Miller has been an immovable object in his playoff career with six hits and three walks allowed with 31 strikeouts in 20 innings. 

Cleveland’s starting pitching depth was a question entering the postseason. Corey Kluber has been terrific in his first postseason with a 0.98 ERA, 20 strikeouts, 13 hits allowed and seven walks in 18.1 innings. 

But Indians manager Terry Francona has not had anyone else in his rotation make it through the sixth inning. His bullpen is deep enough to get by with starters who go four or five innings, but someone in the rotation not named Kluber will need one strong start if Cleveland is going to win the World Series. 

It also helps Miller succeed because the longer a starter goes, the fewer outs Francona has to bridge before he can just use Miller and Cody Allen to record nine outs. 

Better Matchup for Cleveland

As mentioned above, the Dodgers would serve as a more favorable matchup for the Indians in the World Series. 

Beyond the Miller factor, Andrew Simon of MLB.com noted how Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts could be in a bind with his rotation if the Dodgers win their next two games:

Los Angeles opted not to push ace Clayton Kershaw into another short-rest outing in NLCS Game 5, instead starting Kenta Maedaand slotting Kershaw in for Game 6 at Wrigley Field. That means that while the Indians will have time to align their starting rotation any way they choose for the Fall Classic—presumably with Corey Kluber at the front—the Dodgers wouldn’t be able to go to Kershaw until Game 2 on short rest or Game 3 on regular rest.

The Dodgers would also turn to Rich Hill against the Cubs in a potential seventh game, so Cleveland could avoid their two best pitchers until Games 3 and 4. 

In case you didn’t know based on the current NLCS results, Kershaw, Hill and Kenley Jansen have been the only things slowing down the Cubs, per Rany Jazayerli:

That won’t necessarily be the case for the Cubs if they are to play the Indians, because Francona can turn to Miller or Allen in the later innings, whereas Roberts has been throwing out Joe Blanton and Pedro Baez. 

But another obstacle for the Indians is that Cubs manager Joe Maddon has a deep rotation he can utilize however he wants. Jon Lester is on track to start Game 1 if they advance, while Jake Arrieta would presumably go in Game 2 and Kyle Hendricks, who will start against the Dodgers Saturday night, in Game 3. 

The Indians do have the luxury of home-field advantage in the series, which is not insignificant. They have yet to lose at Progressive Field in the playoffs and are tied for the AL’s best home record at 53-28. The Cubs were a modest 46-34 on the road compared to their MLB-high 57 home wins. 

The Dodgers were just 38-43 on the road during the regular season, though they have won three of their first five games away from Los Angeles in the postseason. 

It’s hardly a secret that the Cubs were the league’s best team in 2016. They were one of three teams to score at least 800 runs and led the league with a 3.15 ERA and defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs.

Nothing is ever guaranteed in a short series—few people were predicting Cleveland to get past the Boston Red Sox in the division series, let alone make it to the World Series—but the Indians’ simpler route to a title would go through Los Angeles. 

Of course, given the injuries Cleveland has overcome this season and in the playoffs to even reach this point, difficult tasks don’t seem to phase this team. 

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The Chicago Cubs offense finally came to life over the past two games of the 2016 National League Championship Series to push the drought-stricken organization within one victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers of reaching its first World Series since 1945.

Now the pressure shifts to the Dodgers, who had taken early control of the series with two straight shutouts in Games 2 and 3. They’ll hope sending ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound Saturday night can silence the suddenly revitalized Cubs lineup once again.

Let’s check out all of the important viewing information for the final two games of the series, though Game 7 may not be needed. That’s followed by a look at the updated odds and a prediction for whether Los Angeles can force a deciding game Sunday.

2016 NLCS Schedule

Current Series Odds

Game 6 Preview

The Dodgers were in the driver’s seat with a 2-1 series lead and Kershaw looming for Game 6. Winning one of the final two games at home would have sent them back to Chicago with the league’s best pitcher prepared to break the hearts of Cubs fans again.

Instead, the club now needs a dominant performance from its ace just to keep the season alive. He pitched a gem in Game 2, tossing seven shutout innings with six strikeouts while giving up just two hits and walking one. L.A. needs a similar outing Saturday night.

Knowing Kershaw will be on the mound is a mental boost for the Dodgers, though. Kike Hernandez further explained why the team remains upbeat about its chances of a comeback despite heading out on the road with its back against the wall, per Jack Baer of MLB.com:

This team is more than capable of winning two games in a row. In Game 6, we have the best pitcher on the mound, and then in Game 7, we have Rich [Hill], who looked pretty good against them. The last time we lost two in a row, we came back and won two in a row against Washington, so I don’t see why we’re out of this. We’re still pretty confident we can come back and win a series.

Of course, the Cubs don’t have a slouch taking the ball in Game 6, either. Kyle Hendricks actually led baseball in ERA during the regular season with a 2.13 mark because Kershaw (1.69) didn’t have enough innings to qualify due to some injury issues.

The 26-year-old breakout sensation has earned comparisons to former Atlanta Braves ace Greg Maddux, who had two stints with the Cubs, because he carves up hitters without the electric stuff of a Kershaw. Maddux told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers he likes what he’s seen from the Cubs starter.

“He does all those things usually better than the guys he’s facing,” Maddux said. “If it was a radar contest, then why play the game, right? Velocity is nice, but command and movement are better.”

In an era where there’s so much focus on upper-90s fastballs and monster strikeout totals, it’s refreshing to see a pitcher who can get hitters out consistently by attacking every area of the strike zone.

All told, it sets the stage for a pitcher’s duel Saturday night. It’s hard to imagine two offenses that have run hot and cold throughout the playoffs are going to generate a ton of chances against two of the top pitchers in the game this year.

ESPN Stats and Info passed along a stat to showcase how important it is for the Cubs to get into the Dodgers bullpen:

If Chicago is able to get Kershaw out of the game before the seventh inning, its chances of winning certainly skyrocket, even in a close game. But it’s more likely the lefty goes the distance to force Game 7 for the National League pennant.

Prediction: 3-2 Dodgers

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The 2016 Major League Baseball playoffs are nearing an end, and the Chicago Cubs are seeking to clinch their first World Series berth since 1945 with a victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday. 

The Cubs are on the cusp of fulfilling the promise they showed during the regular season when they won an MLB-best 103 games, though they will have to do something no one has been able to do this postseason: beat the Dodgers in a game started by Clayton Kershaw.

Fortunately, the Cubs have the luxury of playing at home in front of what’s sure to be a raucous and passionate crowd in Wrigley Field and the knowledge they have two chances to win one game. 

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians sucked some drama from the American League by reaching the World Series with a 7-1 combined record against the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. They wrapped up the AL title on Wednesday, giving them five days to rest before hosting the Fall Classic on Tuesday. 

Before moving ahead, let’s look back at how the three teams still playing for a championship have arrived at this point. 

LCS Results

Cleveland’s Unique Path

It’s fitting that this Cleveland team has overcome injuries and adversity in October because the season started with significant questions about the offense as a result of All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley’s shoulder. 

Brantley was limited to 11 games during the regular season before his shoulder flared up, requiring another surgical procedure in August.

September looked like a nightmare month for the Indians, despite them never losing their grip on first place in the American League Central. Danny Salazar’s arm flared up, and he hasn’t pitched since September 9. Carlos Carrasco’s season ended on September 17 due to a broken pinkie following a liner off the bat of Ian Kinsler. 

Yet that September 17 game helped set the stage for what MLB fans saw in Game 3 of the ALCS. On that day against the Detroit Tigers, eight relievers combined for 10 shutout innings in a 1-0 win. 

Trevor Bauer was forced out of Game 3 against the Blue Jays after recording two outs due to the stitches breaking on his pinkie. Manager Terry Francona used six pitchers to get the final 25 outs in a 4-2 win for a commanding 3-0 series lead. 

Cleveland made history in that game, with ESPN’s Cristian Moreno providing this statistical nugget:

While Cleveland’s entire relief corps has opened a lot of eyes this postseason, the unit is being led by the dominating effort of ALCS MVP Andrew Miller. 

Richard Justice of MLB.com provided Miller’s final stat line from the ALCS:

Because of the injuries to the Indians’ rotation, Francona has often relied on Miller and Cody Allen to record nine outs this postseason. 

Per Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports, the combined numbers for Miller and Allen in eight playoff games for the Indians have been incredible:

They have needed the pitching staff to be that good because the lineup isn’t putting up gaudy numbers. In five games against the Blue Jays, Cleveland’s offense scored 12 runs on 25 hits, and seven of those runs came on six homers.

It’s easy to get away with little offensive production when the pitching staff has three shutouts in eight games, but the Indians will likely need more of a spark with the bat if they hope to capture the franchise’s first World Series since 1948. 

Of course, if Miller and Allen remain unhittable, the Indians could keep doing exactly what they have done through two playoff series. 

Dodgers vs. Cubs

The story of this year’s NLCS boils down to what the Cubs have done against Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw, Rich Hill and Kenley Jansen. 

Los Angeles’ Big Three has combined to allow five hits, three walks, no runs with 18 strikeouts in 16.1 innings this series. In three games the Dodgers have lost thus far, their pitching staff has given up 35 hits and 26 runs. 

Kershaw continues to change the (ludicrous) narrative about his inability to pitch in the postseason based on what he was able to do against the Cubs in Game 2.

Unfortunately for Kershaw, because the Dodgers are staring elimination in the face, no one will remember that brilliant effort if he doesn’t duplicate it on Saturday night. 

When the Cubs went down 2-1, there was talk of an offensive slump that were nearly as ludicrous as those previous narratives about Kershaw. Everything gets heightened in the postseason, but judging baseball teams on any two-game stretch is insane because it’s a game built on peaks and valleys. 

Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com also helped illustrate why the Cubs were unable to hit in Games 2 and 3:

They didn’t hit against Kershaw and Hill because no one hits against that duo. That’s not an exaggeration, as both left-handers hold opponents to a sub-.200 batting average, per FanGraphs.

The Cubs aren’t lacking in the pitching department. Jon Lester gave them the edge in the series with seven brilliant innings of work in Game 5, in which he allowed five hits and one run with six strikeouts. 

Of course, as noted by Christopher Kamka of Comcast SportsNet Chicago, Thursday’s outing from Lester has been par for the course since the All-Star break:

The Dodgers don’t figure to see Lester again in this series, though Cubs manager Joe Maddon could opt for an all-hands-on-deck approach if it goes to a seventh game on Sunday. 

Kyle Hendricks will start Game 6, with Jake Arrieta ready for Game 7 if necessary. Hendricks was the hard-luck loser against Kershaw in Game 2, with his only mistake in 5.1 innings being a solo homer from Adrian Gonzalez. 

Hendricks didn’t look sharp in that outing with four walks, but he worked around them by allowing just three hits and striking out five. 

One thing that works to the Dodgers’ advantage is they don’t have to face a left-handed starter. Their team OPS was 150 points higher against right-handed pitching (.772) than left-handed pitching (.622) this season, per Baseball-Reference.com. 

With Kershaw on the mound in Game 6, the Dodgers don’t have to light up the scoreboard to keep their season alive. They just need to find a way put the Cubs in an early hole that leaves them searching for runs against the best pitcher in baseball. 

Odds are firmly in the Cubs’ favor right now, but the Dodgers’ pitching lines up perfectly to give them a shot at challenging Cleveland for the World Series. 

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The Chicago Cubs might be one win away from making the World Series for the first time since 1945, but Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw stands in the way in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday night.

While the Dodgers look to stay alive and overturn a 3-2 series deficit, the Cleveland Indians will be waiting for the winner after their five-game triumph over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series. 

A quick turnaround awaits the National League champion, as the 112th Fall Classic will begin on Tuesday in Cleveland:

The final three teams have been thirsting for a title with significant droughts, with some obviously larger than others.

Odds Guide

Odds to Win World Series

Cleveland Indians: 163-100

Chicago Cubs: 50-59

Los Angeles Dodgers: 27-4

Relayed by Odds Shark

Cleveland Indians

World Series Appearances: 6 (including 2016)

World Series Wins: 2 

Last World Series Win: 1948

Last World Series Appearance: 1997

The Indians have shown throughout the 2016 season that they are one of the most well-rounded rosters in all of baseball, and that’s been highlighted through slumps and injuries. 

With a roster that’s lost starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, Cleveland’s arms have stepped up in a big way, especially this postseason, as they’ve been able to work alongside a limited offense that’s hit just .208:

In terms of starting pitching, ace Corey Kluber has been supported by veteran Josh Tomlin and the 25-year-old Trevor Bauer until the latter sliced his pinky open while repairing a drone. 

The most recent hero came in the form of Ryan Merritt, who started Game 5 after recording just one regular-season start during his rookie campaign, putting him in sparse company, per MLB Stat of the Day:

He went 4.1 innings, allowing just two hits in Game 5 to help the Indians clinch the pennant. 

In the bullpen, it’s been all about reliever Andrew Miller, who has been the definition of untouchable during October. The ALCS MVP has pitched 11.2 innings in the postseason, allowing no runs on just five hits while striking out 21 batters.

Against either a Dodgers or Cubs team that has scored over 30 runs during the postseason, that dominant Indians pitching will have to be just as good to secure a championship for the first time in 68 years. 

Chicago Cubs

World Series Appearances: 10

World Series Wins: 2 

Last World Series Win: 1908

Last World Series Appearance: 1945

The longest, most well-documented drought in major North American professional sports looks like it could come to an end this year. 

Baseball’s best regular-season team, with a 103-58 record, barnstormed through the league this year behind a core of young, powerful stars in the batting order and a strong pitching staff. 

But those big Chicago bats fell upon hard times in the postseason, as they scored one run or less in three games, including two straight shutouts in Games 2 and 3 of the NLCS.

They’ve come alive over the past two games, though, scoring a combined 18 runs on 26 hits, which is something that could cause any pitching staff stress.

Pair that with Jon Lester’s postseason dominance, and the Cubs will most likely feel confident about their title hopes if they can get by the Dodgers:

Getting to the World Series would be a massive accomplishment for this franchise regardless of what happens as they are one win away from breaking another sizable drought of 71 years without a Fall Classic appearance.

Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series Appearances: 18

World Series Wins: 6 

Last World Series Win: 1988

Last World Series Appearance: 1988

The last time the Dodgers were in the World Series, Kirk Gibson delivered one of the most memorable home runs in baseball history:

While a 28-year drought is a considerable one, it is nothing compared to the other two that could be ended this postseason. 

But the Dodgers have their back up against the wall for Game 6 of the NLCS. One more loss, and they will fall one series short of the World Series for the fourth time since 2008. 

Luckily for them, Kershaw is taking the hill and has already taken care of the Cubs once in the NLCS. In fact, he joined some elite company in shutting them out in Game 2, per ESPN Stats & Info:

He’s been the lone bright spot in a Dodgers pitching staff that has gotten hammered throughout the playoffs. In 10 games, they’ve allowed 50 runs, 45 of them earned, which will make it extremely difficult for the offense to overcome, even if the Dodgers can find a way to come back against the Cubs.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

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After coming back from a 2-1 deficit to go up 3-2 in the National League Championship Series, the Chicago Cubs have pushed the Los Angeles Dodgers’ back against the wall, as L.A. will enter Saturday’s Game 6 in win-or-go-home mode.

The pitching contest will be a rematch of the Game 2 affair the Dodgers won 1-0, with ace Clayton Kershaw going up against regular-season NL ERA leader Kyle Hendricks. With two top-flight hurlers on the mound, runs could be difficult to come by once again.

With the Cubs just one win away from reaching the World Series, here is everything you need to know about when and where to watch Game 6, as well as a prediction for which team will prevail.

Where: Wrigley Field in Chicago

When: Saturday, Oct. 22 at 8 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox Sports 1

Dodgers Player to Watch: Clayton Kershaw

Great pitchers can almost single-handedly carry teams through the playoffs at times, and the Dodgers may need that type of performance out of Kershaw in Game 6.

After struggling to the tune of a 5.84 ERA in the NLDS against the Washington Nationals, Kershaw bounced back in a big way in Game 2 of the NLCS, firing seven innings of two-hit, no-run baseball in a 1-0 Dodgers triumph.

The Cubs were also shut out by Rich Hill in Game 3, but the bats have since come back to life in the form of 18 runs over the past two contests.

Despite that, the Dodgers appear to have plenty of confidence entering Game 6.

According to MLB‘s official Twitter account, manager Dave Roberts feels good about his team’s chances with Kershaw on the bump:

The same can be said for Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

Kershaw’s career playoff record leaves plenty to be desired, as he is just 4-6 with a 4.39 ERA despite the gem he threw in Game 2.

Even so, the fact he has been on the big stage so often means the moment shouldn’t overwhelm him. He is of the belief he is well prepared and equipped to take on the challenge, according to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune:

Obviously the fans are pretty excited about their team this year, and rightfully so. They have been waiting a long time for them to win. … Pitching on the road is obviously different, but you try and keep it the same as possible. D.C. was one of the louder environments that I’ve pitched in. So I have gotten to do that now a few times. I guess I’m as prepared as I’ll ever be for that.

The Dodgers bullpen has struggled during the NLCS, so it is incumbent upon Kershaw to pitch well and pitch deep into Game 6.

If he is locked in, then the Dodgers won’t have to do much against Hendricks, much like in Game 2.

Pitching in Game 6 does take a potential relief appearance in a possible Game 7 out of the equation for Kershaw, but Game 7 won’t even occur if he doesn’t come through Saturday.

Cubs Player to Watch: Javier Baez

Great defense and timely hitting are paramount in high-pressure playoff games, especially when elite pitchers are on the mound. Because of that, Javier Baez could be the most important position player in Game 6.

The 23-year-old is enjoying a spectacular playoff run in 2016, as he is hitting .368 with five RBI and two stolen bases in the NLCS.

According to MLB Stat of the Day, his penchant for extra-base hits is already historic through five games of the series:

As good as Baez has been at the plate, it can be argued that his defense at second base has been even better.

While Baez played all over the diamond during the regular season, he has settled in at second base during the playoffs and regularly made difficult plays look routine, such as the one on Gonzalez in Game 5 that features in this MLB Twitter post:

Many have taken notice of Baez’s defense reaching an elite level, including ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark:

Although Chicago’s offense has exploded over the past two games, Kershaw is skilled at silencing bats, much like he did in Game 2.

If Kershaw pitches another gem, every play and every out will be of the utmost importance, which is why Baez’s defense will be key.

He has also been the most consistently productive hitter in the Cubs lineup during the postseason, and he seems the likeliest candidate to get a big hit for Chicago in a tight game, which could push the team into the World Series.

Game 6 Pick

Cubs fans have been starved for a World Series berth since 1945, and they are just one win away from finally making their return.

The crowd promises to be raucous at Wrigley Field Saturday, and it won’t be an easy atmosphere for Kershaw and the Dodgers to deal with.

Kershaw already managed to do so once in Game 2, however, and now he has seemingly found his playoff stride, the Dodgers enter Game 6 with an advantage.

Hendricks had a spectacular regular season, but he has struggled to give the Cubs length during the playoffs, going just 3.2 innings in the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants before leaving through injury and 5.1 innings in Game 2 of the NLCS.

He also had control problems in his last start, as he walked four batters, while Kershaw offered just one free pass.

The Los Angeles offense has been largely stagnant in the series, but if Yasmani Grandal, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Co. are able to run into a pitch or two, Kershaw may not need much more run support than that.

Kershaw is a three-time Cy Young Award winner and has been the best regular-season pitcher in baseball for years. He’ll carry that trend over into the playoffs for a second consecutive start to force a Game 7.

Game 6 prediction: Dodgers 2, Cubs 1

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The Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman because he’s a flamethrower.

In the 2016 postseason, he’s ignited a disconcerting number of fires.

Yes, Chapman can melt the radar gun with his triple-digit heater, and he’s impersonated his unhittable self in stretches.

The recent numbers, however, paint a less flattering picture.

In 6.1 playoff innings with the Cubs, Chapman has allowed six hits, three walks and three earned runs and has converted only three of five save opportunities.

Chicago is up 3-2 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series, so it’s not as if Chapman is destined to become a footnote in the franchise’s futile October saga.

Still, this is a troubling development for the Cubs, who acquired Chapman as a rental from the New York Yankees at the trade deadline with the sole purpose of shoring up the back end of their bullpen.

They wanted a stopper, no hand-wringing added.

So far, it’s been hit-and-miss.

Take Game 1 of the NLCS. Chapman yielded a two-run single to Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. It tied the game.

Granted, Chapman entered in the eighth inning with the bases loaded, no outs and the Cubs clinging to a 3-1 lead. He got two-thirds of the way to his destination, fanning Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig. 

Gonzalez, however, enjoyed the last laugh.

“We talk about baseball, you know he’s got the best fastball in the game,” Gonzalez said afterward, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. “But you know, you just throw fastballs. It’s going to get hit. Doesn’t mean it’s going to get hit all the time, but eventually it’s going to get hit.” 

Gonzalez is a reputable swinger. And the Cubs went on to win that game, 8-4.

Chapman, however, has coughed up other key knocks this October, including this one in Game 3 of the division series against the San Francisco Giants to implausible autumn hero Conor Gillaspie:

Chapman can make hitters look like they’re swinging a wet noodle blindfolded underwater. He’s struck out 15.2 hitters per nine innings in his career, if that does anything for you.

But while the Cleveland Indians‘ Andrew Miller has been the Platonic Ideal of a no-doubt fireman since the conclusion of Game 162, the Cubs closer has been mercurial.

That’s never a word you want associated with any postseason player, especially a reliever.

Whenever we analyze playoff results, we tread knee-deep into the small-sample swamp. There’s your caveat.

Chapman’s issue appears to be getting ahead in the count, as ESPN.com’s Sam Miller outlined:

When Chapman is ahead in a count and he throws a pitch down the middle, batters’ isolated power—slugging percentage minus batting average—is .036; when batters are ahead, it’s .300. When he’s ahead and he throws a pitch down the middle, batters hit .270 on balls in play; when he’s behind, it’s .444. His home run rate goes up by a factor of four. …

The difference is that when he’s behind in counts, he throws fastballs 93 percent of the time, which might as well be 100 percent of the time for a batter trying to guess what’s coming. Batters can ignore his slider and sit on the heater, take a big swing and connect enough to do damage.

The thing, then, is for Chapman to throw an effective slider and to get batters behind. When he does that, he’s a baseball wizard sent from the future.

When he doesn’t, he learns that MLB hitters—including the Gillaspies of the world—can punish even the most blinding fastballs.

It doesn’t help that Chapman’s most recent hiccup came in Thursday’s Game 5 against Los Angeles, as he allowed two hits, a walk and two runs. The Cubs once again won 8-4, but Chapman’s struggles were magnified.

The Cubbies are headed home for Game 6 on Saturday and Game 7 on Sunday if necessary. They’ll lean on Kyle Hendricks and, maybe, Jake Arrieta. They’ll surely depend on their young, versatile lineup.

This curse can’t be busted by any single player.

Chapman, however, will matter. He’s a southpaw, and L.A. was the worst offense against left-handers in the regular season.

More than that, he’s the man they summon when the game—and possibly the whole kit and caboodle—hangs in the balance.

There’s also no immediate heir apparent.

Righties Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon sport identical 4.91 postseason ERAs, and overall Chicago’s bullpen owns the seventh-highest ERA (3.71) of the 10 postseason qualifiers. 

If he keeps nudging his velocity into the mesosphere and harnesses his slider, he could get back to being quasi-unhittable. In fact, we’ll bank on that, because stuff like Chapman’s doesn’t come around often.

For the title-starved Cubs, however, the risk of more fires is real.

Can you feel the heat? Here’s betting Chapman can.

All statistics current as of Friday and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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