Kuzul

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The Ben Zobrist bidding got a lot hotter Tuesday, and finding teams not interested in trading for the versatile veteran is a lot easier than determining who wants him. 

As first reported by CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman and confirmed by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Tampa Bay Rays inked second baseman/shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to a one-year deal on Tuesday. The signing is viewed as a way for the Rays to replace Zobrist since it seems more a matter of when rather than if the team will move him.

The Rays will obviously not be selling Zobrist at his highest value, but one thing is certain: His stock will not get any higher than it is now.

Zobrist will turn 34 in May and can become a free agent after next season, so it’s almost stunning the Rays didn’t trade him a couple years ago. Still, the interest in him on the trade market is ridiculously high because he is about as productive a position player as there is.

it would’ve been easier to list the teams that aren’t a fit for Ben Zobrist, but I guess I like taking the long route sometimes

— Matt Snyder (@MattSnyderCBS) December 30, 2014

“Trades are risky by nature,” Rays general manager Matt Silverman told Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune nearly two weeks ago. “The easiest thing to do is stand pat, and that can be just as risky if not more so. We’re looking to be proactive and take steps to improve our club, and that’s what we’ve been doing all offseason.”

Actually, what the Rays have been doing is slicing payroll and preparing for the future, which even included trading a 24-year-old, controllable Wil Myers. Cabrera’s signing, while doing nothing to make the roster younger (he is 29), is a stopgap in preparation for a Zobrist trade. Zobrist would be the first player in franchise history to start a 10th consecutive season with the Rays if he made it to Opening Day.

It is true Zobrist‘s name has not been thrown about the way Matt Kemp’s was or the way Cole Hamels’ has, but teams have been calling the Rays about Zobrist since early November. Now that clubs know it’s a virtual lock that the Rays will move him—it is assumed Cabrera will play second base, the spot Zobrist mostly occupied over the last two seasons—he will become the most sought-after player on the trade market in the short term.

#Rays could keep Zobrist, Y. Escobar and A. Cabrera, sitting Escobar against tough RHPs, playing Zobrist more in OF. But all that unlikely.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 30, 2014

Zobrist is probably the most underrated, undervalued player in baseball. He will make $7.5 million next season, and since 2011, he has a 23.2 WAR by FanGraphs‘ calculations. That is the fourth-highest total in the American League behind Mike Trout (29.1), Miguel Cabrera (26.5) and Robinson Cano (24.3). It’s incredible to think that is the kind of company Zobrist keeps relative to his stature.

Zobrist can also play every position on the diamond except the battery, and he still has a positive defensive WAR and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) aggregate. His best defensive position by the DRS metric in 2014 was left field, and that is why the San Francisco Giants seem like quite the logical landing spot.

Attn: Giants RT@msimonespn: Only 2 players have been worth 4.5 @baseball_ref WAR in each of the last 6 seasons: Miguel Cabrera & Ben Zobrist

— JB Long (@JB_Long) December 30, 2014

The Giants lost their primary left fielder when Mike Morse signed with the Miami Marlins, and they clearly are not comfortable with Gregor Blanco platooning with someone else. The Giants would prefer an everyday left fielder, and Zobrist fits that model.

Not only that, but there are still a lot of questions about what incumbent second baseman Joe Panik can do over a season of 600 plate appearances. He hit .305/.343/.368 in 2014, but that came in just 287 plate appearances, and he was still just a 104 On-Base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) player. Zobrist would not only cover the Giants in left field, he can also be about as good an insurance policy at second base as there is available.

Zobrist could also spell new third baseman Casey McGehee from time to time although that can be said about almost every position when it comes to Zobrist.

In a Giants offseason filled with plenty of courting but not payoff, Zobrist could be the deal to ease the disappointment.

However, there are a lot of sharks in Zobrist‘s waters. The Washington Nationals, who let Cabrera walk, need a second baseman. The Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs could use outfield help. The New York Yankees could use middle infield help, as could the Toronto Blue Jays.

The winning bid will have to be hefty. The Rays value Zobrist greatly—there’s a reason they’ve held onto him for so long—and they could probably live with starting the season with him in uniform with the expectation of making him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Or they could even wait until the July non-waiver trade deadline to move him out.

Plus, the Los Angeles Angels set the price for a contract-year second baseman when they dealt Howie Kendrick to the Los Angeles Dodgers for highly rated pitching prospect Andrew Heaney.

The Rays had little reason to sign Cabrera unless they were inclined to trade Zobrist. Again, this is more than likely a matter of when than if, and it will come down to which buying team most values the most undervalued player in the majors.

Advanced statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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There’s usually a lull in the MLB offseason during the holidays, but expect the peace and quiet to come to an end once the calendar turns to 2015. There’s still wheeling and dealing to be done.

For now, it seems as if even the MLB trade rumors have taken a backseat to eggnog and caroling. The few we do have focus on players with the ability to play the outfield.

The free-agent market for outfielders is mostly depleted, with options like Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus and Mike Carp representing the best players left available for teams to bid on. Naturally, it’s not a surprise that teams searching for outfield help have turned their attention to the trade market.

Teams still have some time to make upgrades before spring training, but they better act fast. If they wait, then the best options will be gone.

Below are the latest rumors on some of the more intriguing outfielders available.

Ben Zobrist

Traditionally a second baseman or shortstop, Ben Zobrist has played over 400 career games in the outfield. He can play any position on the field except catcher, and that makes him one of the more invaluable players in the sport.

So how can the Tampa Bay Rays justify dealing him away?

Nothing is imminent yet, but Peter Gammons reports that several general managers have told him that the San Francisco Giants will eventually trade a package of prospects for the versatile veteran.

Should the Giants acquire Zobrist, they’d likely pencil him in as the team’s everyday left fielder. Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford have second and short locked down, respectively, and Casey McGehee will most likely assume third-base duties after the position was vacated by Pablo Sandoval.

Even if it’s not the Giants who acquire Zobrist, Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi writes that “there’s a decent chance” Zobrist will be moved before Opening Day.

The 34-year-old may be worth more to the Rays in a trade than he would be on a team looking like it will enter a mini-rebuild next season. A free agent after 2015, he’s owed just $7.5 million next year. That’s extremely affordable considering his value. He has produced a WAR of at least 5.4 each of the past four seasons, per FanGraphs.

A switch-hitter who can deliver a line of .270/.350/.420 with 15 homers and 70 RBI can be a difference-maker for a lineup in need of more depth. The Giants certainly do after losing Sandoval and Mike Morse to free agency.

Couple his bat with his versatility, and Zobrist is easily one of the most valuable players in baseball. The Giants better be ready to deal top prospects if they want to add him to the team.

Nick Swisher

Fresh off the worst season of his successful 11-year career, Nick Swisher has become the subject of trade rumors this offseason.

He hit just .208/.278/.331 with eight homers and 42 RBI in 401 plate appearances in his second year with the Cleveland Indians. While he still has two more years left on his contract, the Indians already appear to be moving on.

They acquired Brandon Moss earlier this offseason, a player with the exact same set of skills as Swisher. He’s a first baseman who can also play the outfield but should really be the designated hitter—just like Swish.

Naturally, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reports that the Indians “would like to trade him.” It won’t be easy to trade someone coming off such a bad season. Indians general manager Chris Antonelli has to sell him to other teams as a big bounce-back candidate, but even that might not work.

Cafardo lists the Chicago Cubs as a possible trade partner. On paper, that seems like a fit. The Cubs have a talented young roster but need to infuse some more veteran leadership in the final months of the offseason. Jon Lester is there to command the pitching staff, but there isn’t someone to help groom the young hitters.

With Anthony Rizzo firmly entrenched at first base, Swisher could play a semi-regular role as a corner outfielder. He’d have to yield time to Jorge Soler and others, of course.

Perhaps a one-for-one deal could work if the Indians are interested in taking Edwin Jackson from the Cubs. Sometimes a change of scenery is good for struggling veterans. At the very least, the Indians would be getting another arm who can be used in the back of the rotation.

We’ll have to wait to hear more information on a potential Swisher trade, as Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer writes that “the Indians consider Jason Kipnis, Bourn and Swisher three of the keys to 2015.”

Conflicting reports are nothing new this time of the year, so we’ll just keep waiting.

Other Outfielders

Plenty of teams have outfield depth from which to deal. Morosi lists nine teams and several players who could be involved at some point, with Zobrist and Swisher both named on the list.

He writes that we should see “heavy activity” when it comes to outfield bats following the holidays. Among the list of names are a few intriguing ones.

Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies, Josh Hamilton of the Los Angeles Angels, Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds and Mark Trumbo of the Arizona Diamondbacks are among those names probably on the unlikely-to-be-dealt list; however, the craziness of this offseason should leave our minds open for anything.

Trumbo is a player who would certainly garner interest if made available, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweeted back on Dec. 10 that nobody has been able to gauge Arizona’s interest in moving him:

Piecoro tweeted a few days earlier a quote from Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart regarding the idea of moving the slugger:

It would be hard to justify moving Trumbo. Sure, he only slashed .235/.293/.415 in 362 plate appearances, but you have to remember that he was troubled by a foot injury for most of the season. Even still, he hit 14 homers and drove in 61 in 88 games.

That’s nearly 30 home runs and over 100 RBI projected over a full season, and one would have to assume that his slash line would have approached his four-year average with the Angels—.250/.299/.469—had he been fully healthy.

Trumbo is a valuable bat for an Arizona team that might surprise next season. He, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas form a tough trio for pitchers to work through, and their are plenty of other young hitters ready to take the next step.

Arizona should only move Trumbo if it is blown away by an offer. Given his performance last year, it probably won’t be.

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn.

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It has become redundant to say, but the Oakland A’s made the biggest assault on a possible 2014 World Series title when they added Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to their already-dominant pitching staff on the Fourth of July.

With the trade deadline just over two weeks away, it may be easy to assume that the A’s will now stay quiet and not make any more splashy moves. The team is already saturated with talent and without their two top prospects, Addison Russell and Billy McKinney, as trade bait.

But here is a scary thought if you are the rest of Major League Baseball: Not only did the A’s land two of the most coveted free-agent pitchers and become immediate World Series favorites, but now with a surplus of young, talented arms, they are primed to be buyers at the trade deadline to address their limitations at second base.

It was not headline news, but when the A’s acquired Samardzija and Hammel from the Cubs, Tommy Milone was demoted to Triple-A. Also, recovered from a broken hand, Drew Pomeranz was activated from the disabled list Sunday and then promptly sent down as well. There simply is not room in the rotation.

With wins in his last six decisions and a 3.55 ERA that was on the decline before being sent down, Milone would not be in the minor leagues for many other ballclubs. Pomeranz sports a 2.91 ERA over 55.2 innings pitched this season. He, too, deserves to be in the big leagues. Furthermore, A.J. Griffin (3.60 career ERA in two seasons with Oakland) and Jarrod Parker (a former ninth overall pick and the owner of a 3.73 ERA in two years with the A’s) will both return from Tommy John surgery next year.

Thus, thanks to the Samardzija-Hammel acquisition, the A’s now have a surplus of young, talented starting pitching. With four pitchers (Milone, Pomeranz, Griffin and Parker) all without jobs, or five pitchers (now including Jesse Chavez, who was formerly a relief pitcher) vying for one spot in the starting rotation, the A’s are clearly an attractive target to many teams.

Yet while the A’s may have the pieces to make another deal at the trade deadline, it is obvious that they do not have many glaring issues.

The three-headed monster of Dan Otero, Luke Gregerson and Sean Doolittle has erased any semblance of a concern in the bullpen. Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Yoenis Cespedes and Coco Crisp are everyday staples at their respective positions. And the first base and catcher positions have turned into the three-way platoon of Derek Norris (.294 BA), Stephen Vogt (.358 BA) and John Jaso (.274 BA). Do not ask how it is working, but it clearly is.

Middle infield for the A’s, however, has been a different story.

Granted, Jew Lowrie has done an admirable job at shortstop. In 90 games (82 starts), he has posted a .234 batting average and driven in 34 runs.

Second base is where the bulk of the worry lies, and it has only escalated since utility man Alberto Callaspo was placed on the disabled list after straining his right hamstring, as John Hickey of the San Jose Mercury News reports. 

Switch-hitting Nick Punto (160 at-bats) and left-handed-hitting Eric Sogard (156 at-bats) currently share time at second base and have struggled immensely. The two have combined for a total of one home run, a .202 batting average, a .259 slugging percentage and 16 RBI while manning second base—all position lows for the A’s. Their .273 on-base percentage and meager 25 walks (also both position lows) presumably make for an irate Billy Beane.

The A’s continue to be heavily dependent on Lowrie to carry the weight of the middle infield. An injury to the seven-year shortstop would be catastrophic, as a Punto-Sogard middle infield would be about as offensively inept as they come.

There are a number of potential solutions for the A’s and their middle infield concerns.

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy are both subject to being shipped elsewhere in the coming weeks. The two are the best-hitting second basemen on the market, but the chances the A’s acquire either is slim, given the fact that Utley does not want to leave Philadelphia in the first place (as Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News reports), and the Mets are asking for a hefty amount of minor league offensive talent in return for Murphy.

Luis Valbuena of the Chicago Cubs has also drawn interest from the A’s, but the Cubs are reluctant to deal him, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal states. However, with prospect Arismendy Alcantara making a case for himself as their everyday second baseman (9-for-23 with a home run, five RBI and a stolen base in his first five big league games), Valbuena may be on his way out.

Perhaps the best fit and most realistic acquisition for the A’s is Tampa Bay Rays do-everything-man Ben Zobrist. Slashing .266/.401/.754 with a .352 on-base percentage and five multihit games in his last nine contests, Zobrist would provide a noticeable and immediate boost offensively. His ability to play second base, shortstop and either corner outfield position makes him an even more intriguing option for the A’s.

Karl Buscheck, the A’s Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, views Zobrist being traded to the A’s as an ideal situation for both teams, as the Rays are likely to be looking for young pitching at the deadline. Tommy Milone, Drew Pomeranz, Jarrod Parker or A.J. Griffin would all be at their disposal.

Combine this perfect match that addresses the needs of both teams with the parting words of general manager Beane in an interview with Jim Bowden of ESPN (h/t MLB Trade Rumors) and it is clear the A’s will not be complacent with their league-leading 59-36 record:

Well, you know, there’s a lot of time left, Jim. Whether you have needs or not, you have to take advantage of the environment. This is a time that everybody comes to the table. And whether you’re actively pursuing something specific, you want to be a part of the conversation. I don’t want to say we’re done. The short answer is: I hope we’re active still.

Follow Jacob Garcia on Twitter @Jake_M_Garcia or connect with him on LinkedIn.

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The 2013 MLB season is now in full swing, and the Rays haven’t had very good start to their year. Tampa Bay stands at 3-4 after the first week of baseball, dropping a couple of tough games but showing some bright signs as well.

It’s just the beginning of what should be an exciting year for this talented Rays team.

Here are five things I’ve taken away from the first seven games of the season.

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Managers love players who can move around the diamond. Having such flexibility allows them to give tired or injured players days off, while keeping a productive bat in the lineup.

The ability to learn a new position opens up many opportunities for players as well. Aging shortstops may prolong their careers by moving to second or third base. A la Cal Ripken Jr. A team might also employ multiple impact players with the same natural position if one of them is able to learn a secondary spot, like when Alex Rodriguez moved to New York, where Derek Jeter was entrenched at shortstop.

These slides will not include players who only play outfield and have merely moved between outfield spots. Nor will they include catchers who play occasional games at first base to rest their knees.

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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

After exploding onto the fantasy scene in 2009 with 91 runs, 27 HRs, 91 RBI, 17 steals and a .297 batting average, I declared Ben Zobrist to be a legitimate, multi-position stud.

My claim didn’t come without warrant.

Zobrist has always displayed excellent plate discipline and on-base ability, posting a 15.7 percent walk rate and .429 on-base percentage in five minor league seasons. His 2009 breakout campaign (15.2 BB/9, .405 OBP) was foreshadowed with his 2008 second-half splits: nine home runs, .264/.361/.521 in 144 at-bats.

However, my man-crush on Zobrist backfired last season, as he hit just .238 with 10 HRs.

He did swipe 24 bases, though.

Yet despite this, Zobrist’s batting eye remained in tact.

• 2009: 95 walks, 104 strikeouts in 501 at-bats
• 2010: 93 walks, 107 strikeouts in 541 at-bats

Zobrist even increased his contact rate, from an already above-average 81.9 percent in ‘09 to 84.4 percent last season.

Even his fly-ball rate remained nearly the same.

• 2009: 38.5 percent
• 2010: 38.1 percent

The biggest difference was in his HR/FB rate and BABIP. 

HR/FB Rate:

• 2009: 17.5 percent
• 2010: 6.0 percent

BABIP:

• 2009: .326
• 2010: .273

Zobrist actually hit .285 with a .385 OBP in the first half of last season, but his BABIP plummeted in the second half:

• July: .219
• August: .185
• September/October: .195

This unfortunate turn of luck destroyed Zobrist’s batting average and thus, his run-scoring and run-producing totals.

If we assume a normal BABIP in 2011, a batting average in the .270 range should be expected. That leaves his HR/FB rate as the only unknown.

Perhaps his 17.5 percent mark in ‘09 was too lofty, but his 6.0 percent clip last season isn’t realistic either. If we project a rate similar to his career average of 11.2 percent, Zobrist should push for 20 HRs this season.

Thanks to his versatility, Zobrist will receive plenty of at-bats this year. He’ll likely see time in both the outfield and infield, and should maintain first and second base eligibility.

His spot in the Rays’ new-look lineup is not quite as clear, but he could bat first, second, fifth or sixth. His run-scoring and run-producing totals will be directly affected by this.

Either way, the switch-hitting Zobrist appears likely to bounce back in his age-30 season.

With 20/20 potential at three different positions, Zobrist offers one of the most flexible and dynamic packages in fantasy baseball.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• Nos. 81-90: Upton, Young or Werth?
• No. 91: Brian Wilson
• No. 92: Carlos Marmol
• No. 93: Pedro Alvarez

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

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30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
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The late winter air is ripe with fantasy baseball optimism as spring training games commence under the warm southern sun and fans speculate the fates of their teams’ stars. But often, it’s not the stars who are the catalysts behind their teams’ early season success, but instead, it’s the sleepers, the dark horses and unknown who catch the league by surprise.

Here’s a glimpse at a handful of players poised to play the role of the unexpected and deliver in 2011. 

Don’t forget to check out our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.

Tampa Bay may have lost some offensive pop with the departures of Carlos Pena (28 HR) and Carl Crawford (19 HR), but the Rays will look to newly appointed spark-plug Ben Zobrist to compensate for these franchise pillars. It’s unlikely that this utility man will ever return to his 2009 level though, which saw Zobrist post a career-year performance (.297 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI and 17 SB). 

Adding additional value to Zobrist’s stock is his exceptional athleticism, which fostered a career-high 24 stolen bases. Manager Joe Maddon should continue to post the green light for his swift-footed middle infielder, who was thrown out just three times in 2010 and considering Zobrist’s above-average batting eye, Tampa Bay will have a reliable offensive threat.

Adam LaRoche will never have the glamour or flash of an Albert Pujols or Mark Teixeira, but the veteran first baseman will do at least one thing well: Hit for power. LaRoche’s 25 big flies in 2010 was the fifth time in eight years that the 32-year-old surpassed the 20-homer threshold and considering the healthy supply of available plate appearances in Washington, LaRoche looks to be a lock to again post impressive power numbers. 

The lone caveat when analyzing the potential production from LaRoche is his notoriously slow starts. The owner of a .252 pre-All-Star game average, LaRoche is a strong finisher, whose .295 post-All-Star average is a better indication of how valuable the sweet-swinging lefty can be. 

Amidst an American League loaded with young, promising backstops, Tampa Bay’s John Jaso has presented himself as one of the most undervalued and patient catchers in the league today. At 27, Jaso isn’t a kid and won’t develop into an elite-level catcher, but he will provide the serviceable stats required to fend off competition for Tampa’s starting catching job. 

In just his first full season behind the dish for the Rays, Jaso displayed a high level of patience (.372 OBP) while also giving himself a chance at the plate by drawing more walks than strikeouts (59 BB to 39 K). Should he attain 450-500 plate appearances as the Rays’ full-time catcher, Jaso could amass a lofty hit total (10/25 in April 2010) and rack up an impressive amount of walks. 

Entering a contract year, Mets’ Carlos Beltran will look to contribute from the middle of the New York lineup hitting behind Jose Reyes. After manning center field in Flushing since ’05, Beltran has asked for a move to right field to alleviate stress on his balky, surgically repaired knee, which limited him to a mere 64 appearances in 2010. 

Beltran will be 34 this April and in order to cash in on another contract, the veteran switch-hitter will need to return to his customary combination of power and speed (eight seasons of 20-plus HR and 20-plus SB). Breathing down his neck will be emerging prospect Fernando Martinez, who owns many of the tools the Mets will look to build around. A slow start for Beltran (.281 career April batting average) will lead to a shorter leash and greater likelihood that young Martinez could replace the incumbent veteran. 

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by Conor Gereg.

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If you play in a standard five-by-five league (i.e., one that includes batting average), you will want to check out our standard league rankings by clicking here.  For those who utilize OBP, let’s take a look at how that changes the rankings (and it does so fairly significantly):

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
4. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
5. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
6. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
7. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
8. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
9. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
10. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
11. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners
15. Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Minnesota Twins

Thoughts:

• Ben Zobrist struggled in ’10, no one is going to argue that fact, but he still managed a 14.0 percent walk rate.  That helped him post a .346 OBP despite struggling with a .273 BABIP.  Let’s not forget that he is just a year removed from a .405 OBP courtesy of a 15.2 percent walk rate and .326 BABIP.  There certainly is reason to believe that he could post a tremendous mark once again in ’11.  Couple that with 20/20 potential and there is an awful lot to like, pushing him significantly up this list.
• The player who falls the most thanks to the removal of average and addition of on-base percentage is Aaron Hill.  Even in his big, breakout 2009 campaign (.286, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R), he managed just a .330 OBP thanks to a 5.7 percent walk rate.  Yes, the average is going to rebound due to his historic poor luck in ’10 (you can read more about it by clicking here), but he’s just never going to post a strong OBP (career .325 mark).
• Another loser is Brandon Phillips, who has a career walk rate of 5.9 percent and OBP of .316.  You still have to like him thanks to 20/20 potential, but there certainly are options with significantly more upside in the OBP department.  One who is close is Martin Prado, but his advantage in OBP isn’t enough considering Phillips could out produce him in HR, SB, RBI and R (depending on where he hits in the lineup).
• Tsuyoshi Nishioka posted a 12.2 percent walk rate over his last two seasons in Japan.  Granted, we really don’t know how his game is going to translate to the Major Leagues, but at that point in the draft he is well worth the risk due to his potential in OBP, R and SB.
• Who should be listed at No. 4, Dan Uggla or Ian Kinsler?  I know we all want to push Uggla up, thanks to OBP of .360, .354 and .369 the past three years but we can’t overlook Kinsler’s abilities as well.  In 2008 he actually posted an OBP of .375 and last season he was at .382.  Of course, he always struggles with injuries and his walk rate has fluctuated by a fairly large margin from year to year.  I’m going to give Uggla the nod for now, but it certainly is open for discussion.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 OBP rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen

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It has been a while since we checked in on the players who disappointed fantasy owners in 2010, so today let’s check in on the 2010 performance of Ben Zobrist.  Yes, his eligibility all around the diamond (he played at least 14 games at 1B, 2B and OF in 2010) helped a little bit, but it was far from enough.  Does multi-position eligibility really make up for these numbers:

541 At Bats
.238 Batting Average (129 Hits)
10 Home Runs
75 RBI
77 Runs
24 Stolen Bases
.346 On Base Percentage
.353 Slugging Percentage
.273 Batting Average on Balls in Play

In order to look at Zobrist, you almost have to decide which side of the fence you fall on.  Do you believe his 2010 breakout was for real (.297, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 91 R, 17 SB) or do you believe that he performed over his head?  Even if you believe the latter, you couldn’t have expected such a big regression in 2011.

His HR/FB seemingly fell off a cliff in 2010 after emerging the prior two years:

• 2008 – 17.4% (198 AB)
• 2009 – 17.5% (501 AB)
• 2010 – 6.0% (541 AB)

That’s a huge decline, to say the least.  His fly ball rate was consistent from 2009 to 2010, and if he can maintain that you would have to expect him to regain some power, even if not back to his 2008 and 2009 levels.  At the worst, you would have to think that he could reach the 16-20 HR range in 2011, which the Rays will desperately need.  With Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena no longer part of the lineup, Zobrist is likely to join Evan Longoria as one of the key factors in driving in runs.

The power outage also helped to explain his fall in the average department, though it wasn’t the only factor.  Obviously, fewer home runs lead to more balls put in play.  That alone is going to help lead to a lower average, especially when you have such a big outage.

Couple that fall with a drop of over 50 points in his BABIP (he was at .326 in ‘09), and that certainly helps explain his awful average.  However, there certainly are plenty of reasons to think that he will post a significantly better average in 2011:

• 1. He has a great eye at the plate – Over the past two seasons he has posted walk rates of 15.2% and 14.0%. In fact, the latter number put him in a tie for seventh among players who qualified for the batting title.
• 2. He does not strikeout an excessive amount – In 2010 his strikeout rate was 19.8%. While that’s not a great mark, it certainly could be significantly worse. If he can continually put the ball in play, an improvement is bound to happen.

He may not close in on a .300 average, but .270 or better would appear to be a lock.

Throw in the speed that he added in 2010 and you are looking at an extremely solid option among 2B.  Yes, there are risks involved, especially given his struggles, but he could go 20/20 with a .270+ average.  He also is likely to be a key component in the middle of the Rays lineup, meaning he could go at least 80/80, and possibly push 90/90 once again.

That’s a whole lot of upside.  He’s going to fall significantly from where he was being drafted a year ago (according to Mock Draft Central his ADP is currently 124.72), really adding to his appeal.  He is going to enter the season with eligibility at 2B and OF in all formats (and maybe 1B as well), just increasing his value.  With multi-position eligibility and a ton of upside, you have to like betting on him to rebound in 2011.

What are your thoughts on Zobrist?  What kind of numbers do you think he could put up?  Is he a player you’d target on draft day?

Make sure to check out our review of other players who struggled in 2010 and their prospects for a rebound:

• Beckett, Josh
• Hill, Aaron
• Lind, Adam
• Geinke, Zack

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