With less than a half of a season to be played, little has been decided as far as the playoff picture goes.
As what has been a slow trade deadline season thus far starts to pick up, we will have a better idea of what teams will be playing in October and what teams are looking to the future.
So with so much baseball left to be played, here are 10 bold predictions on who will be playing in October and who will take home some of baseball’s biggest awards, among other things.
There are 12 days until the Major League Baseball trade deadline, and the needs and wants of teams are changing daily.
The Yankees thought they might be all good without another starting pitcher Saturday, but that all changed when Andy Pettitte went down in the early stages of Sunday’s start.
Who are the hot commodities heading down the stretch, and who are the contenders?
Let’s take a look at the latest trade rumors.
The unofficial halfway point of the 2010 baseball season was culminated by the National League’s 3-1 win of the All-Star game on Tuesday night. In addition to the game acting as a celebration of baseball itself, the All-Star break often serves as an opportune time to reflect on a team’s position in the standings and what it can realistically achieve going forward.
Which teams will be buyers or sellers at the July 31st trade deadline?
What prospects will be called up that can make a difference for their respective team?
How will major injuries play a role the rest of the way?
These are questions asked by all 30 teams this time of year.
Some teams have greatly overachieved—San Diego Padres—while others have underachieved—Seattle Mariners.
As of July 11 (the last day of regular season games before the break) the Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, and Texas Rangers were all in first place of their respective divisions. The Tampa Bay Rays currently hold the lead in the AL Wild Card race while the Rockies sit atop the Wild Card in the NL.
Which of these teams are for real and which have the best chance of faltering down the stretch?
Let’s break each National League contender:
Atlanta Braves
Five Game Lead in NL East
Strengths: Starting rotation, Closer
With the return of Jair Jurrjens from a severe hamstring injury that sidelined him for most of the first half, the Braves starting pitching staff looks about as solid as it did since the days of Maddox, Glavine, and Smoltz.
While Jurrjens may not have been stellar in his first two starts back from the disabled list prior to the break, he rounds out the rotation in a way that makes Atlanta dangerous any day of the week.
Meanwhile, Tommy Hanson has proven that he will not be intimidated by the responsibility of being the ace of a staff. And at 9-4 with a 2.30 ERA, Tim Hudson is making a huge case to win the National League’s Comeback Player of the Year Award.
However, Hudson could be competing with teammate Billy Wagner for the award when all is said and done. Wagner has saved 20 games in 23 opportunities and currently holds a 1.21 ERA after returning from Tommy John surgery in the second half of the 2009 season.
Weaknesses: Lineup
While it seemed to be clicking during May and early June, the Atlanta lineup is too inconsistent to invest any true confidence in it.
Chipper Jones, who contemplated retirement earlier this year, has sadly proven that he is simply a shell of himself at this point of his career.
Troy Glaus, and the surprising Eric Hinske, have cooled off significantly since last month.
Melky Cabrera has proven that he is nothing more than a fourth outfielder. This comes as even worse news to the currently injured Nate McClouth who lost the job to Cabrera before suffering a concussion and being put on the disabled list in early June.
And while rookie outfielder Jason Heyward has had a solid year so far, batting .251 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI, even he has proven that the expectations set for him at the beginning of the year were simply unfair.
For Real?: Yes
Despite the inconsistency of the starting lineup, the starting pitching has to make one feel very good about Atlanta’s chances. In the analysis of the starting lineup, I also failed to mention the surprising production from second baseman Martin Prado and the continued leadership of catcher Brian McCann. Plus the recent addition of short stop Alex Gonzalez.
With a four game lead in the East coming back from the break, the Atlanta Braves could definitely hold on here in the second half of Manger Bobby Cox’s final season.
Cincinnati Reds
Half Game Lead in NL Central
Strengths: Lineup
This year’s Reds lineup has the people who constantly pick Cincinnati to win the Central year after year finally smiling.
Led by first baseman Joey Votto, who had a career first half (.314 AVG, 22 HR, 60 RBI), the Reds have become a sort of Murders Row of the Midwest in 2010.
Third baseman Scott Rolen and outfielder Johnny Gomes have each revived their ability to hit for power in the tiny Great American Ballpark, while second baseman Brandon Phillips seems to have found a home in the leadoff spot.
With complimentary players such as Orlando Cabrera, Jay Bruce (did anyone think Bruce would ever be considered a “complimentary player”?), and rookie Drew Stubbs filling the holes in the lineup between the big three power threats, the Cincinnati lineup is undoubtedly the most dangerous in the National League Central.
Weaknesses: Starting rotation
No offense to Bronson Arroyo, but I don’t see him as the ace that a team needs to be considered a legitimate playoff team.
While the Reds starting lineup may be enough to carry the team to the playoffs, great pitching is what wins championships. The St. Louis Cardinals (a half game the Reds in the NL Central) have a 1-2-3 punch in its starting rotation with Wainwright, Carpenter, and Garcia.
Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Travis Wood may look nice in a starting rotation right now and almost certainly will be excellent pieces in years to come, but are the Reds going to be able to count on the three youngsters down the stretch as the pressure begins to build? Maybe. But most likely not.
Aaron Harang’s regression and the uncertainty of Edinson Volquez’s health don’t bode well for Cincy either.
For Real?: No
It is tough to say Cincinnati won’t make the playoffs when so much progress seems to have been made. But can the Reds really outlast the tested Cardinals for the rest of the season?
Inexperience and manager Dusty Baker’s mishandling of the bullpen will ultimately lead to Cincinnati’s 2010 demise.
San Diego Padres
Two Game Lead in NL West
Strengths: Bullpen, Starting rotation
The Padres have done it the right way so far. Their overall ERA at the break was at 3.25, while their bullpen ERA is down to 2.66. As a matter of fact, San Diego currently has only one pitcher in the bullpen with an ERA over 3.00.
Talk about amazing pitching.
And the Padres need every bit of it, because their offense is certainly nothing to speak of.
With 24 saves in 27 chances and a 1.88 ERA, Heath Bell has established himself as a leader of the team, despite trade rumors earlier in the year. However, those rumors have since ceased, as it appears the Pad’s may be buyers rather than sellers over the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, youngsters such as Wade Leblanc and Matt Latos have pitched very admirably while veterans such as Jon Garland and Kevin Correia have anchored the rotation.
It’s tough to say that Leblanc, Latos, and even Gregerson out of the bullpen will keep up this torid pace. However, it’s easy to say that it has been these pitchers that have gotten San Diego this far.
Weaknesses: Lineup
Think of the Padre starting lineup for a second.
Now, unless you live in southern California, can you name any starter besides All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez?
Exactly.
The Padres currently rank 12th in the National League in runs scored (376) and 14th in batting average (.250). Imagine how putrid those numbers would be without Adrian Gonzalez’s 56 runs driven in and .301 batting average.
To reiterate, pitching usually wins you championships. But that’s not taking into consideration an offense as weak as San Diego’s.
Simply put, the Pad’s better trade for someone to protect Gonzalez soon or they will fall.
For Real?: No
Put an asterisk next to that “no”. The Padres are still very much a legitimate threat to make the playoffs, and very well may have enough gas in the tank to win the Wild Card.
But the Rockies seem to be getting their act back together. And since 2007, the Padres know all too well that their position in first place will be in serious jeopardy until the day they are playing Game One of the Division Series.
Colorado Rockies
Half Game Lead NL Wild Card
Strengths: Lineup
The Rockies currently rank second in the National League for both runs scored and batting average.
The recipe is simple when it comes to the offense—a lineup filled with young studs and sprinkled with experienced veterans.
In Colorado, former forces such as Jason Giambi and Todd Helton are there to guide the young bats of Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ian Stewart for a perfect combo of contact, power, speed, and defense.
Weaknesses: Starting rotation
The Rockies currently rank in the middle of the pack for starting pitching with an average 4.12 ERA—that’s 10th in the National League. Certainly not good, but not terrible when you consider their offense.
However, if you remove Ubaldo Jimenez’s career year (2.20 ERA, 15-1, 113 SO), the team’s starting ERA shoots all the way up to 4.75. That would be 15th in the National League. In addition, the Colorado starters not named Jimenez have only accumulated 15 wins total. That’s the same amount of wins that Jimenez has himself.
The Rockies are rarely mentioned as real buyers when it comes to the July 31 trade deadline. However, unless Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook decide to really step up their game, or unless Jorge De La Rosa pitches to his perceived potential in the second half, Colorado must make a move to bolster that rotation.
For Real?: Yes
The Rockies have something on their side that most teams currently vying for the NL Wild Card spot do not have—experience in pennant races.
We’ve seen Colorado pull off some pretty lofty feats before when it comes to making the playoffs. Despite the push from teams such as the Giants and Mets, expect Colorado to hold on and not only claim the Wild Card, but perhaps make a run at the National League West.
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Major League Baseball’s All-Star Week has arrived.
The All-Star Week finds itself stuck in a precarious position. Every year, it’s the one true break from all major sports. But this year, even more of a break in the action is where the game finds itself.
The World Cup is over, NBA free agency has passed its peak, and fans are getting even antsier for football season.
But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been moments worthy of watching.
And the first place where the moments start are the Home Run Derby.
Each offseason, owners and general managers of all 30 ball clubs in the Majors work tirelessly trying to put together a collection of players that will contend for the playoffs.
They trade, they sign, they draft and they evaluate talent in hopes that those players have what it takes to succeed at the professional level.
Only eight of those teams see their playoff aspirations realized, however.
The rest must take a step back and reevaluate the direction their franchise is taking.
For some, that point comes sooner than others.
The July 31 trade deadline, for many underachieving teams, is the point at which they decide to scrap their current formula and go in a new direction.
Here is a look at a number of teams that will be sellers during this season’s trading period.
Before writing this article, I had set out to prove that the Home Run Derby has no effect on a participant’s second-half performance.
But after crunching the numbers, I’m not so sure.
Over the past decade, players competing in the Derby have seen their first-half at-bat-per-home-run ratio increase, on average, from 14.2 to 15.6 in the second half. This means they are going an extra 1.4 at-bats between dingers after the All-Star break.
But maybe that’s normal; maybe all players get tired as the season wears on.
Well, not necessarily.
Over the same time period, all of Major League Baseball has seen a decrease in AB/HR ratio from 32.2 to 32.0. This means they are going 0.2 at-bats fewer between blasts in the second half.
In fact, since 2000, the only year during which Derby participants experienced an increase in power after the contest was 2001, when the likes of Sammy Sosa, Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez were competing.
I wonder why?
Meanwhile, Major League Baseball as a whole saw a rise in power during the second half six times.
Maybe the most publicized drop-off in power after the Derby was Bobby Abreu in 2005. He won the contest with a record 41 homers and went on to see his AB/HR rate balloon from 17.9 to 44.2.
But that’s actually unusual. Six of the past 10 Derby winners have seen their rates improve in the second half. For example, Prince Fielder went from hitting long balls once every 14 at-bats before the All-Star break last year to once every 11.8 afterwards.
So maybe the key is to win the thing.
Or maybe there’s a whole different kind of factor at play here. As a friend of mine pointed out, “Derby participants are more likely to be having great first halves, which do not correlate to their full season norms. So they are more likely to regress to the mean to get back to their norms.”
That may be true with players like Joe Mauer and Brandon Inge, but what about perennial power hitters like Lance Berkman and Miguel Cabrera, who have seen unusual drops during the second half?
Common sense tells me that taking an extra session of batting practice, which essentially is what the Derby is, shouldn’t have a negative impact on players that take part in BP every day.
No matter what your feeling is on this topic, however, I think most baseball fans can agree that the Derby is too long. We don’t need to hear Chris Berman yelling, “Back, back, back!” in different languages for three straight hours.
So the solution may be to just shorten the event to two rounds with four participants. You may even be able to attract bigger names who won’t be as scared of a shorter Derby’s effect on their second halves.
Follow me on Twitter at JordanHarrison .
Jordan Schwartz is one of Bleacher Report’s New York Yankees and College Basketball Featured Columnists. His book Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.
Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com
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In the 2010 MLB All-Star Game, Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier will be starting in his first ever All-Star Game. For Ethier, just being selected is, no doubt, a thrill, and being chosen as a starter probably doubles his excitement.
Perhaps Andre Ethier will one day be on this list of the players who have the most All-Star Game starts, by position, in National League history.
How tall do you have to be to ride the rides at the ballpark? Being tall doesn’t hurt, but it is certainly no requirement.
In 1999 and 2000, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson had the honor of standing next to each other as they accepted their Cy Young Award trophies. The vision of the two of them standing together conjured notions of some big time Texas rancher, and the little latino boy he hired to help clear the brush.
But more to the point, Pedro and Randy stood in direct contrast to one another: Randy was there to remind everyone that taller is better with major league pitchers. Pedro was there to say “hogwash.”
You could probably stand anyone next to Johnson’s 6’11” frame and they would look small, but there is an entire foot of difference between Randy and Pedro’s 5’11” frame. Unreal.
But you know what? The short guy is the one who had the dominating six year stretch of any major league pitcher ever.
Was it enough to make him one of the 12 best pitchers under six feet tall ever?
Let’s find out.
The trade deadline is a little over month away, but already teams-especially contenders-are looking ahead to the deals that may be out there. That is certainly true in the ultra-competitive American League East where one key move may be the difference between a division title and going home at the end of the season.
The Yankees are poised to enter July as the division leaders with the now seriously banged up Red Sox behind them and the volatile Rays bringing up the rear in the 3-team race. As for the rest of division? Well, the Blue Jays and Orioles can at least clutch onto hope.
As we enter the season’s fourth month, we take a look at what each team needs to make a push toward a division title starting from the bottom up.
It is the most ridiculous thing in sports to have the fans vote for the MLB All-Star Game. Fans vote for their favorite players even if they have horrible numbers.
This year has been a prime example thus far of the stupidity of fans.
Big-name players that have been hitting very poorly, with three or four guys way more deserving of an appearance, are not only in first or second for their position, but are miles ahead of everyone else.