MLB trade rumors are picking up steam as the annual Winter Meetings are set to begin next week.
While free agent signings will most likely take precedent after salary arbitration is complete, teams that missed out on the offseason action will surely look to make a splash in the trade market.
Among his dozens of cluttered notepads and hundreds of files containing scouting reports of players across Major League Baseball, Los Angeles Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti has the beginnings of an Opening Day roster plan stirring in the back of his mind.
Since the moment Colletti and team owner Frank McCourt announced a potential increased payroll budget for 2011, fans throughout Dodgertown have been imagining both the best and worst possible scenarios for the upcoming season.
Names such as Cliff Lee, Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez and Jayson Werth have been the talk of Tinseltown, yet with several minor tweaks and a few key additions, the Dodgers may not need to break the bank or sell the farm to once again emerge as contenders in the NL West.
On paper, the Boys in Blue weren’t as bad as their 2010 record suggested. However, problems with ownership, hostility within the coaching staff, and turmoil in the clubhouse created a negative chemistry which led to one of the more disappointing seasons in recent Dodgers history.
Colletti and new Los Angeles skipper Don Mattingly have been carefully assembling a coaching staff with all of the team’s best interests in mind, and with the proper bonding and a bit of luck, the Dodgers may create the exact type of locker room atmosphere which the squad desperately needs.
Of course, there are literally thousands of roster possibilities for next year, and a number of MLB experts and analysts are already tossing around names of players who may be taking the field at Chavez Ravine on Opening Day.
The following slides highlight seven bold predictions for the Dodgers’ Opening Day squad, offer a brief commentary for each and suggest a starting lineup against the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants on April 1.
Speed kills.
Ask the Yankees circa 2004 when a stolen base by Dave Roberts in the bottom of the ninth kept the Red Sox—down 3-0 in the American League Championship Series and 4-3 in Game 4—alive and propelled them forward to the greatest comeback in baseball history.
Or maybe you could just look at the 1982 World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers.
That season the Brewers lead all teams with 216 home runs, 30 more than next closest team. Last in the league that season were the Brewers’ World Series opponents, who hit just 67 home runs, 149 fewer home runs than the Brewers!
However, the Cardinals did steal 200 bases that season, second in the league to the Rickey Henderson-led Oakland Athletics and 35 more than the team with the third-most stolen bases.
In the seven game World Series between the two teams, the Cardinals stole seven bases compared to the Brewers one on their way to a World Series title.
With the importance of speed writ large in the history of Major League Baseball’s playoffs, let’s take a look at the 10 fastest players in this year’s postseason.
Evan Longoria is no longer considered a rising star.
Many now consider Longoria to be a baseball superstar and the face of the Tampa Bay Rays. In just under three seasons as a Major League third baseman, Longoria has a career .282 avg. with 78 home runs and 282 RBI, not to mention a Gold Glove.
He began his 2010 campaign with high numbers that have come to be expected from him, but he tailed off when the Rays went into their “June Swoon”. Longoria hit his 12th home run on June 15 against Atlanta and has only hit six since then. However, two of those six have come in the past week in what has been an offensive resurgence for Longoria.
Why has Evan gotten so hot lately? The return of first baseman Carlos Pena to the Rays’ lineup has certainly had an effect. In the seven games since Pena’s return on August 16, Longoria is hitting .392 with two home runs and 12 RBI, and has returned to the clutch form he has become famous for.
While his Gold Glove defense has been consistent all season, Longoria had been inconsistent at the plate. With Pena’s big bat behind him, pitchers now cannot focus solely on Longoria. BJ Upton has also had a mini revival at the plate since Carlos Pena’s return and the entire lineup seems to be clicking better.
All signs point to a fun fall for baseball fans in the Tampa Bay area, but when October is done and the champions are crowned, Carlos Pena will be a free agent. With Longoria and Upton both starting to get hot with Pena’s return, one has to wonder how Pena’s probable departure in 2011 will affect the Rays lineup.
There will be a lot of issues the Rays must face this offseason, including Pena, Crawford, and Soriano’s free agencies, the stadium debate, and the performance issues of hitting coach Derek Shelton. While the future of the franchise may be blurry, the 2010 season still promises hope.
On August 23, the Rays are 76-48, one game behind New York and 5.5 games ahead of Boston for the Wild Card. Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff predictor, PECOTA, gives the Rays a 95.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 47 percent chance of winning the division. If Longoria continues his recent upswing, look for the Rays to seriously challenge the Yankees for the American League East crown.
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These are the five fastest players in Major League Baseball, based on Bill James’ speed score, which takes into account four components: SB%, 3B%, frequency of SB attempts, and runs scored %.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of baseball’s most talented teams. They have it all. They have very good defense, very good pitching, pretty good power, and above-average speed. They could very well go all the way. Except for one thing: They sometimes are not very smart.
I watch the Rays three to four times a week. I cannot count how many times I have said during a game, “What was the point of that?” Sometimes it’s Joe Maddon giving a key player the day off while playing the Red Sox or Yankees, with an off day or the Orioles coming up. Really Joe? You couldn’t wait one more day to sit Carl Crawford? Or Carlos Pena?
Sometimes it’s strategy. Like having success with the squeeze bunt in certain situations, and then not using it when that same situation comes up again a week later. Or being 114 games into the season but still not settling on a leadoff hitter or a DH.
But most irritating of all are just the boneheaded plays that seem to go unnoticed. At least the announcers don’t seem to notice. In Wednesday’s game against Detroit, a game that the Rays lost by one run that would have put them back in first place had they won, there were several.
No. 9 hitter Kelly Shoppach drew a walk to load the bases with two outs. Leadoff man Dan Johnson had a 2-0 count, then swung at a high fastball and popped it up. Why swing at that? He’s thrown six straight balls. Take a strike. Unless it’s served up on a tee, let that one go.
Then there was a situation with runners on first and second with one out. The Rays had just tied the game and were finally starting to hit Justin Verlander. Jason Bartlett hit a line drive to right that looked like a sure hit. But the right fielder made a great diving catch. Matt Joyce had already rounded third, so he was easily doubled off. There was only one out. Make sure the ball is going to drop before you take off. This is high school stuff.
But THE most galling play of the day came in the ninth. B.J Upton led off with a walk with the Rays down, 3-1. The tying run came to the plate. And this genius steals. What? Why? Your run is MEANINGLESS! If it’s the eighth inning, that’s a good play. In the ninth, it’s stupid. You should be standing on first base. It’s not worth the risk of getting thrown out and losing a precious out and not having the tying run up.
Oh sure, he would say “I’m trying to stay out of the double play.” Then break it up when that situation comes up. That’s not worth the risk. How would he feel if he got thrown out and then the next pitch got blasted into the upper deck?
Later in the inning, he scored on a groundout. He went into the dugout and everybody is giving him a high-five. Really? You congratulate him for being stupid? A play that dumb should get him chewed out just like loafing after a ball did. He should be fined for that, not congratulated.
Someday, one of your players is going to do something like that it in a postseason game. And it will cost you a game and maybe a title. And the poor guy who does it will be this century’s Fred Merkle. Unless Maddon starts doing something about it now, this will happen. It’s baseball karma. You keep tempting it, it has a way of getting you in the end.
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With the All-Star Game just around the corner, the rumor mill has cooled down, at least for the time being, as we focus our attention to the Mid-Summer Classic.
Once the festivities are over, though, the wheeling and dealing will be in full swing, and with so many clear-cut buyers and sellers, you can expect a good number of deals.
While it is a foregone conclusion that Cliff Lee will be moved, many of the other top players on the trade block could very well see the deadline come and go without switching teams, for one reason or another.
Here are the 10 players that should be traded, but will find themselves still suiting up for their current team come season’s end.
That’s because the young center fielder wasn’t in the starting lineup.
“I just did not want to start him tonight based on a lot of different items that I’m looking at,” Rays’ manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com writer Bill Chastain before Tuesday’s, 8-5, loss.
“Often times, I don’t start somebody. A day off after a day off is part of the reason. I just chose not to start him tonight. But he’s definitely available for the game.”
Before Wednesday’s, 9-4, victory, Maddon said it was a sore right quadriceps that kept Upton from appearing.
Whatever reason Maddon wants to use about not starting Upton, Rays’ fans couldn’t help to think it had something to do with Sunday’s dugout skirmish between two of southwest Florida’s most popular athletes, Upton and Evan Longoria.
Maddon did cover his tracks, Tuesday, in the top of the eighth, entering Upton as a pitch hitter. Upton tripled then took centerfield in the bottom of the ninth.
According to Chastain, Upton told Maddon, Wednesday, that he felt a little sore and did not give reporters details on the injury.
However, Upton’s short appearance didn’t help the stumbling Rays (45-32), which finished 11-14 in June; and are two games behind the AL East leaders, New York Yankees, and one game below Wild Card leader, Boston.
The news gets worse.
Not only is a playoff spot slipping away, the recent events with Upton has put the front office in the spotlight and with the trade deadline looming, the decision on what to do with the center fielder has reached a crossroad.
In 2007, Upton put up All-Star numbers in just 129 games hitting .300 with 24 homers, 82 RBI, 86 runs and 22 stolen bases.
At the time, Upton was 22-years old and it seemed he’d develop into a 30-30 player, who could hit for average and flash the glove—despite coming through the Rays’ system having no idea what type of defensive glove he’d wear.
This hasn’t been the case, at all.
In the 2008 regular season, Upton hit .273 with nine homers, but rebounded in the postseason, smashing seven homers in 16 games.
Upton struggled in 2009, hitting .241 with 11 homers.
In 72 games this season, Upton is batting .262 with seven homers and has put the Rays’ front office on red alert.
“We’ve had a lot of conversations lately,” said, Maddon about Upton before Tuesday’s game. “We had one after the game [Sunday]. We had one yesterday and also today. We had some wonderful conversations — very frank. I just wanted to share with him some of my past experiences as a young man and as a manager today.”
It’s well documented that Upton is a good guy who had a good upbringing by his parents, Manny and Yvonne, documented in this 2007 article by ESPN’s Bomani Jones (below).
So, let’s assume, maybe, attitude isn’t the problem.
Let’s say, Upton’s latest tantrums and lack of hustle doesn’t come from being a bad egg.
Instead, it’s from being a frustrated competitor—Longoria confronting Upton came from frustration, right?
The real question is, what happens if the player’s skills don’t listen?
What then?
When does an organization stop waiting for a player’s talent to come around and parts ways with him?
“At this point, salvaging Upton’s potential is going to be that much harder for the Rays,” wrote Tampa Bay Tribune columnist Gary Shelton on Tuesday. “For a long time, the Rays have had to endure the underachievement and hoped the talent inside Upton will emerge” said, Shelton.
Fact is, at the end of the season, Upton becomes eligible for arbitration and could see a spike in pay; and starting left fielder, Carl Crawford, becomes a free agent.
Ask any Rays fan and they’ll admit, they want Crawford to stay, no matter what the cost.
According to baseball-reference.com , Upton, currently makes $3 million a year. That money could be spent on Crawford, who makes $10 million and will see a pay raise in the $15 millon range.
Last season, the Rays parted ways with a potential superstar prospect, pitcher Scott Kazmir.
Kazmir, picked 15th overall in the 2002 amateur draft by the New York Mets, was dealt to the Rays in 2004 and was supposed to be the hard-throwing lefty a franchise builds a rotation around.
In five and a half seasons, Kazmir made two All-Star teams, but combined for a 3.92 ERA, 55-44 overall record, and a 2.29 K/walk ratio.
Numbers not good enough for a legitimate ace.
At last season’s trade deadline, the Rays shipped Kazmir to Anaheim for minor leaguers Alex Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez, who has played in 58 games this season.
As of June 30, Kazmir is 7-6 and carries a 5.92 ERA for the Angels.
The bottom line, baseball is a business and too much attachment to an investment can hinder a team’s progression.
I’ll admit, I like B.J. and once had an attachment to the second-overall pick of 2002.
Back in 2008, I drafted Upton in the third-round of The Super League ’s first baseball draft .
Looking at his 2007 stats, the kid was a five-tool, 5×5 fantasy player and thought it could only get better.
In 2009, the Frontnac Bigg7evens kept Upton, thinking the kid had a tough season and needed a second chance.
However, after another slow start, Frontnac cut ties with the centerfielder and traded him for Yankee pitcher C.C. Sabathia.
At the time, Upton had fantasy upside and that’s how it was possible to make a deal.
Currently, Upton has real-life upside and now, is the best time to move the 25-year old.
But it’s not easy to let go of an investment, especially one that a franchise has scouted, drafted, and spent time and money developing.
Unfortunately, for the Rays, its time to decide.
Either keep Upton and accept him for the player he is; or deal Upton to another team which is willing to be patient and let him reach that potential we’re all still waiting on.
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You may have heard some rumblings about this Stephen Strasburg guy. Allegedly, he’s pretty good.
Check that: he must be good, as usually the only time a Washington National warrants media attention is in relation to a comedy of errors (cough, cough, Nyjer Morgan , cough, cough).
But from some of the trade proposals I’ve viewed in retaining Strasburg’s services, you would think this guy was the mutant lovechild of Sandy Koufax and Walter Johnson .
Make no mistake, Strasburg’s stats in the minors have been ridiculous (no earned runs in 18.1 innings at the AAA level, 0.89 ERA in eight minor league starts) thus far.
Yet, questions surround the status of the 2009 No. 1 overall pick.
For starters, while rumors and speculation abound, an official debut date for Strasburg has not been indicated by the Major League club.
Another hurdle is Strasburg’s monitored pitch and inning count. Considering Washington invested $15.1 million in his right arm, chances are a fairly-low workload will be non-negotiable.
Additionally, Strasburg’s opposition will be quite formidable, as the NL East has been the most competitive division in baseball in 2010. Yet these influences seem to be lost on the general fantasy public, as stalwarts such as Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria have been offered in exchange for young master Strasburg.
Which is why if you own the rights to Strasburg, trade him. Now.
Strasburg has already logged 40 innings this season. The earliest projections have Strasburg in the Washington rotation around June 5, meaning the San Diego State product will make one, possibly two more appearances in the minors.
Using fellow former No. 1 overall David Price ‘s 2009 campaign as a comparison (162.2 innings between AAA and MLB), Strasburg will probably appear in 110 innings or less the remainder of the season. Not exactly the allotment time a fantasy owner strives for from a supposed anchor of a staff.
The Cabrera and Longoria examples were extreme, but it’s not unfathomable that a second or third round selection (think Justin Upton or Robinson Cano ) will be presented in a trade for Strasburg.
Unless your rotation is depleted to the point where you are plugging in the likes of Brian Bannister and Aaron Cook , ship out Strasburg while his demand is high. You may not get the same enjoyment following an Upton or Cano, but your fantasy team will be better off for it.
Start ’em: Edwin Encarnacion , Blue Jays. Edwin had quite the series in Arizona,smacking five homers in 11 at-bats, including a three-run HR outburst on Friday. In his first six games since coming off the DL, Encarnacion has 11 RBI.
Sit ’em: B.J. Upton , Rays. Upton has four hits in his last 26 ABs, and is hitting a mere .213 on the season. With Desmond Jennings, a consensus Top Five prospect in baseball, waiting in the wings in Triple-A Durham, Upton may be running out of time to fulfill his promise that made him the second overall pick in the 2002 Draft.
Fantasy Flashback: 1885 John Clarkson . In 1885, John Clarkson started 70 games for the Chicago White Stockings , and in 68 of these contests, threw a complete game.
To give that some context, in 2009 National League pitching staffs compiled 76 complete games COMBINED. Other noteworthy Clarkson achievements in ’85: 53 wins, 623 innings, a 1.85 ERA, and a wicked handlebar mustache.
Waiver Wire Watch: For those of you looking to drop an under-performing player, make your first free-agent pick up a player currently on the DL.
Most leagues have a roster spot for those on the injured list, and by picking up and stashing someone like Jair Jurrjens , you’ll have possible trade material down the line. Furthermore, you can select another player who can contribute immediately, thereby allowing you to pick up two players for the price of one.
Rookie Review: Jaime Garcia, Cardinals. The St. Louis left-hander is 4-2 with a 1.28 ERA in ’10. Garcia has also posted a good K/9IP, with 42 strikeouts in 49.1 innings.
And since we’re on the subject of the Cardinals, has Tony La Russa aged in the last 30 years? I swear, the man is the real-life incarnation of Richard Alpert from “Lost .”
Think I’m full of it?
Here’s La Russa with Chicago circa late 1970s, La Russa with Oakland around 1988, and Tony in the present day .
And in memorial of the series finale of “Lost “, here are my theories to explain this ageless phenomenon.
1) He’s on the same steroid cycles as his Oakland teams from the late ’80s.
2) He a charter member of the Mike Krzyzewski Hair Coloring Club.
3) He’s on the same steroid cycles as his St. Louis teams from the late ’90s.
4) His exposure and proximity towards animals has somehow left him with a superhero-like power against Father Time.
The Week in Jonathon Broxton: Another solid week for the Ox, picking up three more saves to bring his yearly total to ten.
While he did allow a run in three innings of work (proving that no one is perfect), he fanned six batters who had the misfortune of battling the great Brox-bino (thanks to reader Sam for the nickname suggestion after last week’s Babe Ruth /Broxton comparison).
Trade Talk: This is usually the time of the year when owners start to lose favor with underachieving All-Stars. You can possibly capitalize on this opportunity by getting a proven player like Prince Fielder for 85 cents on the dollar.
Don’t offend a fellow owner with an offer like Jorge Cantu for Mark Teixeira , but make it enticing enough where you can pull of a potentially season-swinging steal.
Big League Chew Player of the Week: Ben Zobrist , Rays. The Zorilla has been kicking ass and taking names. Zobrist is 13 for his last 23 with two HRs (doubling as his first two bombs of the season) and seven RBI, helping Tampa Bay win seven of their last eight.
Spit Your Tobacco at: Dustin Pedroia , Red Sox. The 2008 AL MVP is hitting .080 in his last six games for Boston.
You’d think Nyjer Morgan would have this award wrapped up after his hissy-fit contributed to an inside-the-park home run on Saturday, but let’s be honest: it’s Nyjer Morgan.
The only way a dude hitting .259 with the Nationals is getting on TV is with a stunt like that, so if anything, Fantasy Fever applauds Morgan for getting his 15 minutes of fame.
That’s it for today. And in honor of my awkward interaction with a police officer this weekend, our “Dumb and Dumber” Quote of the Week:
Officer: Pullover!
Harry: (showing his sweater) No, it’s a cardigan, but thanks for noticing!
Until next week.
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