Kuzul

The Boston Red Sox are getting closer to starting the defense of their World Series title when they begin regular season play on March 31 against the Baltimore Orioles.

Some questions about the roster have been answered during their time in Fort Myers, Fla. However, new ones have appeared due to certain performances, and others still need to be figured out.

A few players have taken full advantage of their opportunity this spring, while others aren’t getting the results they were hoping for. Unfortunately, strong performances from some in Red Sox camp won’t end with a spot on the Opening Day roster.

With the 2014 season-opener less than a week away, let’s take a look at some of Boston’s biggest winners and losers from this spring.

All player statistics sourced from RedSox.com, unless otherwise noted.

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In 2013, the Boston Red Sox turned from a last-place franchise into a World Series champion.

This sort of transformation, while rare and difficult, was the direct result of a number of key moves from general manager Ben Cherington—moves that combined incumbent stars with the right type of free agents to solidify what would be a championship team.

Looking forward to 2014, Boston will once more rely upon some magic.

This time, instead of focusing heavily on free-agent acquisitions, a number of young and talented rookie prospects will likely be asked to fill the voids left by certain players who are no longer with the team—or at least pending departure as is the case with shortstop Stephen Drew.

Along with Drew, Boston lost a number of the players that helped it win its third World Series in the last nine seasons.  Gone is center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury along with catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Red Sox major free-agent acquisition to address these needs was catcher A.J. Pierzynski.  Other acquisitions landed bullpen depth as well as the needed retaining of first baseman Mike Napoli.

These losses open up the door for minor league and rookie prospects to have a shot at making the Red Sox’s Opening Day roster.

For the purposes of this article, we shall examine the top five Red Sox prospects and determine their chances of making the Opening Day roster.  This author shall use the rankings provided by Alex Speier of WEEI for Baseball America.

The report tells us much of what we already know—Boston has a very deep farm system and should be in excellent shape in coming years.  Yet, given the cast of incumbent Red Sox starters, many of these players will not have an impact in 2014, which leaves the door open for only a few guys to make the roster.

Some, like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., have an excellent chance given the opportunity.  Others may have to wait their turn.

In any case, let us evaluate these top five prospects and determine whether or not we will see them at the start of the 2014 season.

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Last winter, the Boston Red Sox molded a 93-loss disaster into a 97-win juggernaut through an offseason of wise, shrewd and visionary free-agent signings. According to Alex Speier of WEEI.com, team president Larry Lucchino is hoping for a sequel when the Red Sox go about filling out their roster in the aftermath of a World Series championship:

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, lightning doesn’t strike twice. By capitalizing on undervalued assets, creating a template for short-term, low-risk deals with midtier free agents and attacking free agency in the last year before baseball’s new, lucrative media deal put $20-25 million in the pocket of each owner, Boston cornered a market that was wide open.

This winter, the copycats will be in abundance, but supply and demand won’t let any team, including the Red Sox, repeat the same strategy en route to a franchise-changing offseason.

In New York, the Mets have posted five consecutive losing seasons, are battling budget concerns and come across unwilling to hand out $100 million deals. Of all the teams looking to spend and improve this winter, the Mets seemed most likely to go about the Red Sox model.

Thus far, they’ve found the climate, per the New York Daily News, of free-agent prices to be above and beyond what they are prepared to spend. It’s likely that every other team attempting the 2013 Red Sox model will soon be confronted with the same realization.  

Last year was a perfect storm for Boston. The free-agent class, dollars spent and undervalued assets fell right in line with the needs on the Red Sox roster. According to Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent rankings, Boston reeled in seven of the top 50 free agents on the market last winter for less than $100 million.

That number didn’t just represent the price paid out to Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes in 2013; it was the total amount spent to secure their services for 11 combined seasons. In other words, Boston brought in the sextet for less than $10 million per season.  

To put that into perspective, Jhonny Peralta, the 18th-ranked player on Yahoo! Sports’ current free-agent rankings, just received a four-year, $52 million contract from the St. Louis Cardinals. Last winter, Dempster was rated 17th by Yahoo! when garnering half that total amount from Boston.

Not only are teams trying to copy the Red Sox model, but money in the game is also on the rise. In September, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote a prescient column on this subject, imagining baseball’s middle class earning much more money this winter and beyond. Per Sherman’s reporting:

There are a lot of teams with available cash — more now with the new national TV contract putting an additional $20-million to-$25 million annually in each team’s coffers beginning in 2014 — and many of those clubs are indicating they are going to shun Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the market and, well, diversify the portfolio. Which means the middle class is about to become the upper-middle class as the good-to-very good free agents are going to get bid up by multiple teams.

The following chart shows the free-agent stars with corresponding rankings this winter to the players signed by Boston last winter. As you can see and imagine, the idea of those seven players, or similar stars, signing for a grand sum of less than 11 years or $99 million is absurd. 

In fact, with Byrd already inked to a $16 million deal in Philadelphia, Beltran, Cruz and Nolasco would have to combine for less than $83 million in total contract value to give credence to a team pulling off a 2013 Red Sox free-agent heist. 

Boston is wise to attempt an offseason model similar to last year. Short-term deals are generally much, much more palatable for both general manager and ownership. If a decision is wrong, it won’t cripple the franchise for years. 

While it’s smart to try, the same results are nearly impossible to garner this time around. Beyond the fact that the middle class of players is poised to cash in, more teams are looking to duplicate the successful approach. This time, the 2014 Shane Victorino might cost $55 million, not $39 million. 

Furthermore, even if the Red Sox find a few players who perfectly fit the model established last year, luck likely won’t be on their side again. When general manager Ben Cherington inked Koji Uehara, the 38th-ranked free-agent on the market, few could have imagined one of the greatest relief pitching seasons in baseball history emerging from the move.

This time around, Lance Berkman is the No. 38 player on Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent list. If he lands in Boston on a short-term deal, posts one of the greatest hitting seasons in history and leads the Red Sox to another World Series, it will be time to admit that Boston truly has its strategy perfected.

Until then, call it what it was: The perfect offseason plan for the perfect offseason.  

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While there are still two-and-a-half months left in the 2013 regular season, it is not too early to look ahead to what the Boston Red Sox‘s starting nine will look like on Opening Day next season.

There will be some new faces, but many of the options the Red Sox have are already signed to long-term deals or are young, athletic players who could make a huge difference in the playoff race.

Let’s see who is in the starting lineup come Opening Day for 2014.

All stats via ESPN.com and Baseball Reference as of Aug. 19.

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The Boston Red Sox may have lost eight of their last 10 games, but with a 22-16 record, thety only trail the New York Yankees by two games and the Baltimore Orioles by one game in the AL East.

With a quarter of the season in the books, the Red Sox still have plenty to prove in one of the toughest divisions in MLB. Nevertheless, there have been several bright spots mixed in with the bad and multiple signs of hope for this team going forward, such as its pitching staff.

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Their debatable sellout streak may be over, but the 2013 Red Sox have quickly become the talk of Boston after their incredible start to the season.

At 18-7, the Sox are off to their best start since they opened the 2004 season at 18-7. We all know how that year turned out—with World Series rings in Boston.

This year’s team owes its success not to a host of mashing offensive talent, but rather to its starting pitching. Red Sox starters boast a 15-4 record and 3.07 ERA. Take out the putrid numbers of Alfredo Aceves’ three starts and the starting staff’s numbers look even better (14-4, 2.59 ERA).

Yes, it is safe to say the stink of the Bobby Valentine era has been washed away by this tremendous April.

However, that is not to say that everything is perfect. Several players on the Red Sox roster have not fared as well so far and will be looking to bounce back over the rest of the season.

Let’s take a look at the winners and losers from the Red Sox’s hot start.

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The Boston Red Sox have not made the playoffs since being swept out of the postseason against the Los Angeles Angels in 2009 and now have a real chance to make it back in the playoffs with a wide open AL East.

The ESPN Boston writers all predict that the Red Sox will make the postseason, Lester and Lackey will have strong years and that Jacoby Ellsbury will be healthy and flourish in his year before he is expected to hit free agency.

The Red Sox have all the right pieces to make into the postseason in 2013. They have veteran leaders with the likes of Ryan Dempster and Shane Victorino who have come in and will likely be voices in the clubhouse all season. 

Also, the younger stars, such as Dustin Pedroia and Will Middlebrooks, are making strides to stay healthy and will be part of the offensive juggernaut that is the Red Sox, who finished sixth in the AL in runs scored in 2012. They could score even more if everyone plays many, if not all, of the 162 games.

The real question marks on this team are David Ortiz and Mike Napoli. Both can hit the bar far, but can they play over 120 games in 2013?

Ortiz has to take five to seven days off to relieve some inflammation in his heels and Napoli has some issues with his hip, but has so far showed no sign of injury. If both can put up at least 25 home runs each, then it should be a top-three offense come the end of the 2013 season.

The AL East is wide open with injuries to the New York Yankees and the other teams not really up to par offensively. The Toronto Blue Jays may be in the mix, but that depends on team chemistry.

Another factor for the Red Sox is the starting pitching, In 2012, the Sox finished with a 4.70 ERA. That was third worst in the AL, and the AL leader was at 4.78. 

It all comes down to Lester and Lackey to right this ship.

Lester needs to bounce back in 2013 with over 16 wins and an ERA under 3.50 for the Sox to stay in contention. Lackey needs to pitch around .500 with an ERA under 4.50 to be the fourth starter for this team. It may take awhile to get used to seeing him start every fifth day, but it will be an interesting season to watch.

Another big topic is the health and success of Ellsbury in 2013.

After being out most of 2012 with a shoulder injury, Ellsbury has looked decent this spring. He is hitting .227 in 22 at-bats with no stolen bases this spring. Once he starts reaching base effectively, expect manager John Farrell to run him into the ground.

The young center fielder has some competition with Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting .517 with an OBP of .618, and that should motivate him, along with his pending free agency at the end of the season. He could possibly put up numbers close to 2011, but I say at least a .290 average with 24 home runs and 45 stolen bases is likely.

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