Kuzul

A.J. Burnett sure wasn’t happy to play his old team tonight. The Blue Jays bats ran rampant over the fireballer, knocking him out in the fifth inning after notching seven runs against him. The Blue Jays hit six doubles in the sixth, two of them by Travis Snider.  After the seven-run inning by the Jays that put them up 8-2, New York would come back to score runs in the bottom of the fifth, sixth and ninth. The Bluebirds would hang on though to win the heavy-hitting contest, 8-6.

The Blue Jays have a very tough schedule in August, facing several teams that are fighting for a playoff spot. Their familiar foes in the AL East, New York, Boston and Tampa, they will all face twice. Anaheim, Oakland and Detroit they will all face once, all of who can be tough competition. Another way of looking at this schedule is that the Blue Jays may play a large role in deciding who claims that Wild Card spot in the American League.

Perhaps the biggest concern for the Blue Jays is whether their young arms can keeping going late into summer. Shaun Marcum didn’t pitch at all last year, so hasn’t pitched a full season since 2007 and Jesse Litsch just returned recently from injury. Brandon Morrow was shuffled between starting and relief with the Mariners before becoming a full-time starter with the Jays this year.

This is Brett Cecil’s first full year in the majors, and while he has pitched fantastic, he could be on a limited innings count. Only Ricky Romero pitched a full season last year, and could likely hit the 200 innings mark this year. All of the Jays starters are yet to hit that 200 mark in their career though, which suggests that their may be more spot starts by Brad Mills or even Brian Tallet to help give these young pitchers some more rest.

Of course, the Blue Jays already know what kind of position they are in though, which means they have a lot to prove. They don’t want to roll over and die; they want to learn how to win against the best to prepare for next season. 

The easiest target is of course Boston, as they have been decimated by injuries this year (Kevin Youkilis might have been hurt as well tonight) and are behind Tampa by 6.5 games. New York will be difficult, but luckily the Jays will not have to face C.C. Sabathia in this series at least. Plus, the Yankees stadium suits the long ball style of the Toronto batters. Tampa will be difficult, as their diverse offense and strong pitching is always finding new ways to win. 

If the Blue Jays bats can stay potent, and their starters can stay healthy and find a way to pitch deep into ball games, the team certainly has a chance to play spoiler. If the Blue Jays want to be in this race next year, they are going to have to prove that they are capable of playing with the best.

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Change is in the air here in Toronto.  It seems that most of the city’s sports teams are in the midst of an overhaul.  The Raptors are transitioning into the new era without Chris Bosh.  Brian Burke continues his push with the Maple Leafs in hopes that they can make the playoffs, acquiring Kris Versteeg and Colby Armstrong this offseason. 

Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos also continues to put his impressive stamp on the Toronto Blue Jays.

When he was appointed the new general manager this past offseason, he quickly signed several veterans to help defensively and guide the young pitching staff.  He made a pledge to put a greater emphasis on scouting and player development. 

Anthopolous then proceeded to make good on his promise, increasing not only the staff, but the range covered by those scouts.

This concept might have all been in vain had the Jays organization not put up the cash to sign international prospects.  In past years, they have either not pursued the free agents or they continually lost bidding wars to the Yankees or Red Sox.

Surprisingly, the Jays have been very active in the pursuit, successfully signing some highly coveted young players. 

The Blue Jays beat out the Yankees earlier in the year to sign 21-year-old Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechevarria to a four-year, $10 million contract.  Since it should be a few years before the prospect is ready for the big leagues, Anthopoulos traded veteran Alex Gonzalez to the Atlanta Braves for Yunel Escobar. 

At 27 years old, Escobar provides a better bridge to Hecheverria. He has a career .291 average and a .368 on-base percentage and he could provide an important small-ball component on a team of sluggers. 

Since the Jays are currently 27th overall in both batting average and hits, their one-dimensional offense needs the abilities of Escobar in the lineup.  Though Yunel Escobar has been struggling this year with Atlanta, he has already shown signs of breaking out of the slump on the Blue Jays.

The Jays GM continues to put his scouts to good use with the signing of two 16-year-old prospects from Venezuela.  Adonis Cardona is a 6’4″ 180lb. right-handed pitcher and Gabriel Cenas, a 6’1″ 175 lb. third baseman; both will begin their professional career playing in the Dominican Summer League for the Blue Jays. 

Anthopolous has already shown, in his short tenure with the Blue Jays, that he has a strong eye for talent and will take every opportunity to improve the team immediately and in the future.  His trade of Brandon League for Brandon Morrow has worked out immensely well so far for the Jays, adding to a young core of starters. 

The catching tandem of Jose Molina and John Buck that he signed have proved to be great advisers to that young pitching staff.  Plus, one of his biggest moves was a simple trade with the San Francisco Giants for Fred Lewis, what seemed like a depth move at first.

When the Jays started the season with Jose Bautista leading off, it was quite obvious that he wasn’t quite suited for the role, and he struggled trying to adapt his game to the leadoff position. 

So when Fred Lewis became available to the Jays, Anthopoulos saw the opportunity to acquire a player that could provide what the Jays lacked.  Of course, it is unlikely even the GM foresaw how well Lewis would slot into the lead-off position and earn a starter position with the Blue Jays.  Lewis now leads the team in two categories with a .281 average and 10 stolen bases, as well as second among the starters in OBP with .343. 

Not to mention that once Bautista was moved into a spot in the order where his style would be more effective, he began to put up career numbers.  Bautista currently leads the league with 25 home runs, and is the Blue Jays leader in RBI and runs, with 58 and 57 respectively.

With the MLB trade deadline coming up, it is quite possible that Anthopoulos will be working the phones once again.  With the competition always at the highest in the American League East, the Jays GM knows that he has to take every opportunity to improve his team if he wants to contend.

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Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers has been officially placed on the disabled list retroactive to July 5 with a strained left oblique he suffered in the bottom of the third inning on Sunday. Fantasy baseball owners will greatly miss the 8-4 Gallardo with his 2.58 ERA and 9.83 strikeouts per nine innings.

Jordan Schelling of Brewers.com noted that despite being recently named to the National League All-Star team, Gallardo will not take part due to the injury. He will miss a minimum of two starts, and if all goes well, will be eligible to come off the disabled list July 20.  

In the meantime, if you need to fill the void left by Gallardo, or even Clay Buchholz, who was also recently sent to the disabled list, consider these ten options:

Begin Slideshow

A quick look at last week’s Fantasy Baseball top performing and least owned players on the waiver wire. Edwin Jackson’s insane no-hitter.

Carlos Quentin’s four dingers. Brandon Morrow & Jhoulys Chacin are strikeout machines. R.A. Dickey’s 6th straight.

Is Jamie Moyer really father-time in disguise?

Can they really keep it up for another week? Check out who’s a Must or a Bust.

Begin Slideshow

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to continue the roll they got on last week tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals. After taking two of three from both the Padres and Giants last week the Jays have another three game set with the Cards. While much of the attention is sure to be on Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday the pitching matchups are exceptional.

Both teams will send their top three starters to the mound over the next three days. The teams also come into the series with similar records, the Cards at 38-31 and the Jays at 38-32. St. Louis does have the better run differential at +56 to the Jays +26. The Jays are 19-15 at home, while the Cards are just the opposite, 15-19, on the road.

Offensively, the Jays and Cards are evenly matched with the Jays .329 wOBA just ahead of the Cardinals .327 wOBA. Where the Cards hit for a higher average and draw more walks, the Jays of course counter with superior power. Defensively, according to UZR the Cards are a +8.6, with the Jays checking in at -12.4. 

When matters get turned over to the bullpens the Jays and Cards sport similar FIPs of 4.03 and 4.06, respectively. However, the Cards have a bullpen ERA of 3.18 to the Jays 4.37. The big difference in ERA despite similar FIPs stems from the Cards bullpen stranding 78.2 percent of it’s baserunners and having a BABIP of .271. The Jays ‘pen has only managed to strand 71.3 percent of it’s baserunners and suffering from a .310 BABIP.

The key to any series is the pitching matchups, especially ones as good as these, and here they are:

Tuesday: Brett Cecil vs Jaime Garcia

It’s only fitting that these two should be matched up. Both are young, left handers in the midst of breakout seasons. Garcia, 23, has been a groundball machine with 58.4 percent of his balls in play staying on the ground. That coupled with a scant .23 HR per nine innings has kept his ERA way down at 1.59. His one weakness is his 3.97 BB per nine innings. He doesn’t counter it with an overwhelming number of Ks either leaving him with a FIP of 3.19.

Cecil continues to impress this season heading into tonight’s start with a 3.58 ERA and a 3.55 FIP. He’s found success thanks to his 2.30 BB per nine innings and keeping the homers in check allowing .77 HR/9 IN. Cecil has been able to get batters to chase 32.5 percent of his pitches out of the zone, bettering the league average by 5.2 percent. Hitters are also swinging and missing 9.4 percent of the time against Cecil (8.3% league average).

Wednesday: Ricky Romero vs Chris Carpenter

Carpenter has picked right up where he left off last season and is turning in another season worth Cy Young consideration. Both his 2.83 ERA and 3.78 FIP are impressive. Just like Garcia, Carpenter does an outstanding job keeping the ball on the ground with a 54.1 groundball rate. He mixes good control, 2.30 BB/9 IN, with a solid strikeout rate of 7.79 K/9 IN. The Jays should look to exploit his .97 HR/9 IN, which is just above the .94 HR/9 IN league average.

Quietly putting together a Cy Young worthy campaign of his own, Romero heads to the mound with a 3.16 FIP. Romero gets it done with a combination of strikeouts and groundballs. He sits down 8.97 batters per nine innings and has a 56.4 percent groundball rate. Romero doesn’t cough up the long ball much either yielding only .53 HR/9 IN. His ERA, at 3.08, is outstanding as well.

Thursday: Brandon Morrow vs Adam Wainwright

For the second year in a row Wainwright has teamed with Carpenter to form the NL’s most dangerous one-two punch on the mound. Wainwright has been the better of the two this season with a 2.23 ERA and a tidy 2.90 FIP. He’s tough to beat no matter how you look at it. Wainwright whiffs 8.34 batters per nine innings while walking only 2.39 per nine innings. Surprise, surprise, just like Carpenter and Garcia, Wainwright has an outstanding groundball rate at 52.3 percent. He’ll be tough for the Jays to solve with his .50 HR/9 IN.

Despite pitching better as of late as he continues to embrace being a full time starter, Morrow is the only starter in the series with an ERA over four at 4.97. He also isn’t a groundball machine getting a grounder on only 40.8 percent of his balls in play. He hands out a decent amount of walks too, walking 4.86 per nine innings.

But Morrow has used his outstanding 9.95 K/9 IN and well below league average .59 HR/9 IN to keep his FIP at 3.63. He’s been terrific three times out in June with a 1.89 ERA and a 2.65 FIP. Morrow’s been much better at home with a home ERA/FIP of 3.35/2.87 compared to his road ERA/FIP of 7.09/4.61.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Blue Jays have Monday off as they get a chance to catch their breath during a brutally tough stretch in the schedule. Over the weekend, the Jays took two of three from the Yankees and nearly pulled off the sweep. But thanks to another less than impressive showing from the ‘pen, the Jays had to settle for splitting their six home games with the Rays and Yankees.

The Jays will get another shot at the first-place Rays with a three game set down in Tampa Bay. Checkout the pitching pairings for the series here. With the night off, here are a few non-draft related notes to hold you over until tomorrow night:

Fred Lewis’ Vanishing Walk Rate

Since coming over from the Giants, Lewis has put together a good offensive season so far. He’s bounced back nicely from last year’s disappointing showing in which he hit just .258 and saw his isolated power drop to a pedestrian .132. This year, he’s got some pop in his bat with a .192 ISO to go along with his .291 batting average. Already, he’s gone deep four times in 195 plate appearances after hitting only four bombs last season in 336 plate appearances.

The only glaring deficiency has been his 4.6 percent walk rate, well below his career mark of 9.3 percent. That has held his on-base percentage to a slightly below average .325. Lewis’ struggles could largely be attributed to his chasing of pitches outside the strike zone. Last year he offered at just 19.1 percent of pitches outside the zone, well below the league average of 25.1. This year he’s offered at a staggering 30.9 percent of out of zone pitches, almost one out of every three.

The Brandon Morrow Experience

The bullpen’s collapse on Sunday cast a shadow over Morrow’s outstanding outing against the Yankees. That outing, combined with his previous start against Tampa Bay, were his best two back to back starts this year—against two of the best teams in the league no less. Combined he went 14 innings, allowing just seven hits and two earned runs. He went seven innings in each start, the first time he’s lasted for seven innings or longer in two consecutive outings this year.

It also marked his third straight start without yielding a home run. Most importantly for Morrow, he only walked three batters across the two starts. And after getting just one strikeout against the Rays, he bounced back and set down eight Yankees by way of the K.

His ERA still sits at 5.48, but he’s kept his FIP (3.68) in check. The FIP has remained low despite walking 4.92 batters per nine innings thanks to his .70 HR/9 IN. The 74 strikeouts in 64 innings has helped as well. He might never be a control pitcher but if he can keep striking out a batter or more an inning and keep the homers to less than one per nine innings he will be successful.

Pumping the Brakes on Brett Wallace

Don’t worry, Brett Wallace is good and is most likely going to continue to be good. But he’s cooled off lately for Triple-A Las Vegas as he has seen his batting average drop down to .270. According to StatCorner.com , his 99 wOBA+ puts him as just a league average hitter in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. His non-adjusted wOBA has dropped from .378 last year with Sacramento to .357 in 2010.

It isn’t all bad for Wallace though. After hitting 20 homers in 532 at-bats last year he has 11 already in just 222 trips to the plate. His walk rate and isolated power have also increased over last year’s numbers.

This isn’t a big cause for concern in the long run for the Jays or Wallace but it is reason enough to give him some more time at Triple-A. The best case scenario would be to wait for him to heat up before being recalled. The more confidence the young man has upon his promotion the better.

Be sure to check back to Bleacher Report tomorrow to see Jeff Wahl’s initial thoughts on the Blue Jays’ early round draft selections. The Jays have several picks in the first couple rounds of new GM Alex Anthopoulos’ first draft experience.

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Back in March this year, the feeling around Spring Training was one of cautious optimism. 

After coming off a humbling 75-87 season, the firing of J.P. Ricciardi and the trade of team icon Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays were clearly embarking to rebuild.

Fast forward to May 9, with a record of 19-14, the water cooler talk was all about our “great young arms”, our “potent offense” and dare I say it—Wild Card! 

And why not? We had just taken 3 of 4 against Chicago and previous to that we swept the Indians.

The Jays are the top power hitting team in baseball with 51 Home Runs and lead the AL in Total Bases with 535

John Buck, with a .237 career batting average, is all of a sudden a .270 hitting juggernaut who’s on pace to obliterate his career highs in every major statistical category. This includes almost tripling his previous bests in HR’s and RBI’s.

How about Alex Gonzalez? The light hitting baseball nomad has either been eating out of Victor Conte’s garbage or is on the hot streak to end all hot streaks. The most glaring stat? His SLG% (Slugging Percentage) is a ridiculous 185 points higher than his career number.

As for those “Great Young Arms”, Ricky Romero and Shawn Marcum are indeed pitching well. However, Romero has been the recipient of great defense and quite a bit of luck as his unusually low .288 BABIP (batting average for balls in play) would suggest. 

Once that number climbs to around .300, Romero’s stats should even themselves out.

Even still, 19-14 is nothing to scoff at. Until we went on the road to face the Red Sox.

After allowing seven walks last night (six in 1.2 innings from starter Brendon Morrow, one of our “great young arms”) we narrowly lost a sloppy game to Boston. However, that was just one game and there’s no way we walk seven again tonight.

Well we didn’t walk seven, we walked eight. Red Sox 6 – Blue Jays 1.

That loud THUD you just heard was the other shoe dropping.

This is to be expected from an elite hitting team like the Red Sox. They are third in the AL with a .353 team OBP and 4th in fewest strikeouts (from their hitters). 

On the other hand, the Jays are in the bottom three in the AL for OBP and have struck out at the plate more times then any other team in baseball.

Home runs are great but nothing kills a rally more than a strikeout or hitting into a double play. There’s a reason why Adam Dunn is playing in Washington and guys like Russell Branyon and Jack Cust can’t keep a job even though they are legit power hitters.

Apologies to my fellow Jay fans out there as I know I can come across as a bit a buzz kill . However, this is still a rebuilding season and when we beat up on some the leagues lesser lights we all need to take it with a grain of salt.

Having said that, there are still lots to be excited about! Lyle Overbay is making Mendoza look like Tony Gwynn so we can expect to see Brett Wallace manning First Base hopefully by July when we make our west coast road trip.

It’s all about perspective.

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This is my first official article as the new Toronto Blue Jays Feature Columnist here on B/R. Quick thanks to the editorial staff for their assistance and to the men behind the curtain who saw fit to give me this opportunity. And a big thanks to my readers who never cease to keep me honest. I expect nothing less.

Cheers!

Jeff

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As I write this, my beloved Toronto Blue Jays are sitting third in the AL East (fourth overall in the AL) with an impressive early record of 16-13. This places us a mere four games behind the Yankees, for the Wild Card spot.

It’s also May 6.

Have a cup of coffee, rummy.

First allow me to preface the remaining article with the following: You will be hard pressed to find a more devoted Blue Jay fan than I. However, I’m also a strict realist who deals in honest, factual reasoning and absolutely does not suffer fools. I’m a shotgun diplomat who leaves the platitudes for the horde of Pavlov’s Dogs that seem to inhabit the sporting news blogosphere.

As for the Jays, sometimes you just need to tell your girlfriend “yes honey, you do look fat in that dress.”

At first glance a 16-13 record looks fairly impressive for a team that was supposed to be a bottom feeder this year. However, when you dig a little deeper you’ll notice that it just isn’t the case.

We’ve played four of nine series’ against teams with winning records last year, Boston, Los Angeles, Tampa, and Texas.  Our record stands at 3-9 in those games, including 1-6 against AL East teams

We have yet to play New York, Detroit, Minnesota, or Seattle and we still have 16 games left to play against Tampa and Boston.  That leaves 99 games left against winning teams from ’09—not including 12 games against the Rockies, Giants, Cards and Phillies, all winning teams from the NL. 

At our current pace we are looking at a record of 33-66 against the winning teams in the AL.  Lets say we run just over .500 during Inter-league games at 8-7, that leaves us at 41-73. 

48 games left to play against the worst of the AL.

Lets be optimistic here and say we have a .700 record against these teams and end up 34-14.  That gives us a record of 75-87.

Coincidentally, that was our record last year. Good enough for 4th in the AL East, a full 28 games back of New York.

Now for some sobering reality about our roster:

Alex Gonzales’ best year offensively was in 2004 with the Marlins when he hit .232/23/79.

To illustrate how much of an anomaly that is, his career per season numbers are .248/10/45.  Of his eleven other seasons, only in three of them did he eclipse 10 home runs and 55 RBI. His pace so far projects to .278/45/123. Needless to say you can cut those power numbers in half and knock off 30 average points. More than expected yes, but Alex Rodriguez, he is not.

John Buck is hitting very well of late (though his avg/OBP are putrid as expected). 

However, in four of his six years in Kansas City, when he was the clear starter, Buck had never hit more than 18 HR or 50 RBI.  His current pace of 27/76 (based on 135 games) simply cannot be sustained.

As advertised, Brandon Morrow has been a strikeout machine. 

But with a K:BB ratio of 10:5, we can expect his ERA to stay at around 5.00. Control is a skill that is slow to develop and expecting Morrow to “figure it out” and start shutting teams down in the next couple of weeks, or even months, just isn’t reasonable. Also, as long as he’s averaging five innings per start, he’s going to decimate the arms in our bullpen.

Now lets quickly discuss Vernon Wells. 

He’s also on pace for a 45/120 season although at a significantly higher average than Alex Gonzalez. Also just like A-Gon, he will not maintain that pace.

That’s not a bad thing either.

His bloated contract puts him squarely in the cross hairs of both media and fans alike. 

However, over the course of his career Vernon has proven to be a very respectable .280/25/90 hitter to go along with great defense in center field. I think we need to stop blaming him for the contract J.P. Ricciardi signed him to and realize that he just isn’t the .310/35/115 guy we all want him to be. 

Jays fans need get off the road to Jonestown this season. 

We are not winning any divisions or wild cards. We are, as expected, a middling team just trying to stay relevant in the cutthroat A.L. East.

Lets just sit back and enjoy the emergence of some great young talent like Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, and Travis Snider. I suspect that fairly soon Brett Wallace will be here and we should catch a glimpse of J.P. Arencibia and Kyle Drabek come September.

Now take a cold shower and get ready for more kool-aid. 

NHL offseason starts in July!

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