Kuzul

Last month, Scott Hutchinson wrote an article about how the Brandon Phillips for Cole Hamels trade rumors were absurd.

By now you all know about Joey Votto’s contract extension and, in light of this event, I’m going to have to disagree with Mr. Hutchinson’s assessment of the Phillips for Hamels swap.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Brandon Phillips and he’s arguably my favorite player on the team. However, all of a sudden a trade for Cole Hamels is starting to make a great deal of sense to me.

As you read this article, try to think strictly about the trade, and not about how much you like or dislike Brandon Phillips and/or Cole Hamels.

In my opinion, the Reds will not extend Phillips past the 2012 season. I think he wants a few too many years and maybe a little too much money for the Reds to re-sign him.

I also believe that Cole Hamels will not get the deal he’s looking for with the Phillies. They just recently signed Jonathan Papelbon and have very solid starting pitching depth, with or without Hamels.

The Reds could certainly use a pitcher like Cole Hamels at the front end of their rotation and even more so because he’s left-handed.

Remember when we were all calling for Aroldis Chapman to make the rotation out of spring training just a few days ago? Well, Hamels, at this point in time, is miles ahead of Chapman as a starter and he would solve the problem of there being no lefties in the Reds’ starting rotation.

The Phillies are having a whole lot of problems with their their middle-infield. Chase Utley’s knees are pretty banged up, and according to ESPN and the Associated Press, Utley will begin this season in Arizona rehabilitating his knees.

My buddy Cliff Eastham has also noted this and pointed out the lack of middle-infield depth the Phillies possess in his article about the Janish to Philly rumor.

So you have two players who are unlikely to remain with their current ball clubs past this season, both of whom fill a massive need of the other team.

If you’re the Phillies or the Reds, what’s not to like about this deal? The Reds could complete one of the best pitching rotations in baseball and the Phillies could get a little bit younger and healthier up the middle.

Both players would essentially be rentals for their new clubs, as I highly doubt the Reds would re-sign Hamels, and the Phillies wouldn’t be likely to re-sign Phillips.

The Reds have players in the minors who could step in and do an adequate job. One of my favorite prospects in the organization, Brodie Greene, could step in and contribute with an average around .270-.280, double-digit home runs, 25-30 stolen bases and decent defense at second base.

Furthermore, the Phillies have good pitching depth. They already have Halladay, Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and Vane Worley. Philly could plug anybody into that fifth spot and still have one of the best rotations in all of baseball.

Maybe I’m delirious from the joy of seeing the best player we’ve had in Cincinnati in a long time get locked up for what I’m assuming will be the duration of his career, but this deal seems to make a whole lot of sense right now.

 If I were Walt Jocketty, I might just pull the trigger on this deal if it were offered to me.

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It would be misleading to characterize second base as a position of scarcity in 2012.

Yes, there are no certifiable facsimiles of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips or Dan Uggla after the first 60 picks of a 12-team, mixed-league draft.

But the entire Top 30 list is also chock-full of 25-and-under potential dynamos (Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Gordon Beckham) and veteran stalwarts (Aaron Hill, Neil Walker, Kelly Johnson, Marco Scutaro, Sean Rodriguez) who are still in their prime years—and could break out with just a little good fortune, here and there.

1. Robinson Cano, Yankees 
Skinny: A lead-pipe cinch for 25 HRs/100 runs/105 RBIs/.305 BA over the next five seasons.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Skinny: The reasonable choice for fantasy owners who value power, speed AND high batting average.

3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
Skinny: My personal favorite for this position—and that was before he racked up 121 runs last season.

4. Dan Uggla, Braves
Skinny: Fantasy owners in Round 4 are praying for 30 homers…and anything above .260 in hitting. 

5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
Skinny: Let’s assume his 2010 numbers (29 HRs/83 RBIs/11 steals) are a baseline measure of production.

6. Chase Utley, Phillies
Skinny: A reputation pick here, and one that might look ambitious with Ryan Howard sidelined for a while.

7. Ben Zobrist, Rays
Skinny: The quietest 20-HR/100-run/20-steal potential of all middle infielders…and Big Z has OF eligibility.

8. Brandon Phillips, Reds
Skinny: A top-7 candidate for all five categories. Just don’t expect career marks in HRs or RBIs.

9. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
Skinny: Don’t be surprised if Roberts passes the 20-20 threshold at age 31. A great addition at Round 12.

10. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
Skinny: Ackley, who possesses the highest upside of anyone outside the top 8, has 15-40-.310 potential.

11. Howard Kendrick, Angels
Skinny: A slightly unfair ranking, given his solid 2011 campaign. Needs to crack 70 RBIs this season.

12. Jason Kipnis, Indians
Skinny: Kipnis is more Pedroia or Phillips than Uggla or Utley. Either way, he’s a long-term keeper.

13. Jemile Weeks, Athletics
Skinny: A dark-horse candidate for 85 runs/.310 average at age 25. Power numbers may never be there.

14. Marco Scutaro, Rockies
Skinny: Scutaro’s value will get a nice bounce around April 10, when he secures 2B/SS eligibility.

15. Neil Walker, Pirates
Skinny: The wild swings in batting average and run production can be frustrating. Don’t reach on Draft Day. 

16. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays
Skinny: Two full seasons of middling batting average have diluted Johnson’s respectable power potential.

17. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
Skinny: Beckham has too many physical gifts to be this average in his prime. A solid late-round flier.

18. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
Skinny: Went on a hitting tear last year after being traded…but the odds of batting .300 for the season are long.

19. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
Skinny: Anything above a pedestrian batting average would boost him into the top 15—he’s that close.

20. Sean Rodriguez, Rays
Skinny: The 2B-SS-3B versatility opens doors for S-Rod. Can he be a steady 15-15 producer?

21. Jose Altuve, Astros
Skinny: A late-season find for the anemic Astros in 2011. Can he amass 30-35 steals in Year 2 of his development?

22. Ryan Raburn, Tigers
Skinny: Raburn needs a hot start to ward off slick fielders Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago at the 4-spot.

23. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
Skinny: Could make a modest leap in this countdown with a productive spring. Intriguing prospect.

24. Daniel Murphy, Mets
Skinny: An under-the-radar talent who’ll bring modest value to all five categories—especially hitting.

25. Omar Infante, Marlins
Skinny: Expect a noticeable bump in runs…and then hope the versatile Infante flirts with .300 again.

26. Brian Roberts, Orioles
Skinny: In the realm of minor miracles, I’d be thrilled with 10 HRs, 75 runs and 20 steals.

27. Mark Ellis, Dodgers
Skinny: Ellis has 15-15 potential in the Senior Circuit, even at the ripened age of 34.

28. Orlando Hudson, Padres
Skinny: A nice deep-sleeper option for steals and runs—if the Padres get aggressive on the basepaths.

29. Mike Aviles, Red Sox
Skinny: The preferred fantasy placeholder over Nick Punto, while Jose Iglesias gets more seasoning in the minors.

30a. Darwin Barney, Cubs
Skinny: A last-round sleeper for the 2B/SS slot in NL-only and 14-team mixed leagues.

30b. Justin Turner, Mets
Skinny: Good minor-league numbers suggest a mini-breakout in the bigs. Could rise up the ranks during Grapefruit League play.

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Umpire Lance Barrett worked his first MLB regular season game in 2010, joining the likes of fellow umps Vic Carapazza, Cory Blaser, John Tumpane, Alan Porter, Mark Ripperger, Manny Gonzalez and David Rackley as the so-called Class of 2010, now into their second season of big league games.

Like all AAA call-up umpires, Barrett is trying to set himself apart so he can get a full-time job at the MLB level.

Sometimes, proving yourself to the MLB brass involves making a big-time call in a potentially confusing situation. Last season, the Class of 2009’s Dan Bellino won over many Umpire Ejection Fantasy Leaguers as well as MLB Supervisors with an ejection following a confident and correct obstruction call in Washington. Bellino was hired by MLB prior to the 2011 season.

Barrett’s Bellino moment may have come in Pittsburgh tonight. In the top of the fifth inning of the Reds–Pirates game, with one out, runners on first and second, and the possibility of an infield fly fresh in all of our minds, Reds batter Drew Stubbs lined a Jeff Locke fastball to Pirates shortstop Ronny Cedeno.

While Cedeno fielded the ball on a short-hop, baserunner R2 (and pitcher by trade) Edinson Volquez, mistakingly believing the ball had been caught, stepped back onto second base as Cedeno threw to second baseman Neil Walker. Walker caught the ball and stepped on the second base bag, resulting in an out call from Barrett.

Walker subsequently tagged Volquez, who was standing on second base. This resulted in a safe call from Barrett.

Fairly straightforward: R1 Brandon Phillips was forced out on the tag of second base, which took the force off of R2 Volquez, who now legally and safely occupied second base. Batter Stubbs safely arrived at first base. One out, two on.

Not so fast… Phillips, as confused as anyone, and perhaps adding to the confusion himself, began running frantically between first and second base, drawing a throw from Walker. The bewildered Pirates infield quickly trapped the already-retired R1 Phillips in a rundown between first and second before unnecessarily tagging out Phillips for a second time.

Either way, Barrett once again gave the out call so there would be no confusion this time. Unfortunately, there was confusion – lots of it, for everyone except perhaps Barrett, crew chief Mike Winters, and umpires Mike Everitt and Chris Guccione… or maybe for them as well.

For you see, the umpires determined that Phillips was out, as expected. Batter Drew Stubbs would be placed on first base, also as expected. But Volquez, who had taken off for third base in the pandemonium which ensued while Phillips was in a rundown between first and second, was sent back to second base.

To understand why Barrett, Winters and the other umpires ruled the way they did requires an analysis of MLB Rules 7.09(e) and 9.01(c).

Rule 7.09(e) states, in part, it is interference when “any batter or runner who has just been put out, or any runner who has just scored, hinders or impedes any following play being made on a runner.” Rule 7.09(e) Comment additionally states, “If the batter or a runner continues to advance after he has been put out, he shall not by that act alone be considered as confusing, hindering or impeding the fielders.”

Rule 9.01(c), as all umpires know, is the so-called elastic clause, which gives an umpire the “authority to rule on any point not specifically covered in these rules.”

Putting the two together allows for an explanation of why the umpires ruled the way they did. Phillips’ post-put out actions were not enough on their own to be considered interference. This is clearly specified in Rule 7.09(e) Comment. However, the Phillips rundown clearly did confuse the fielders and allow Volquez to advance toward third base.

In the end, Winters correctly invoked Rule 9.01(c) to deliver a fair and just judgment: Phillips was out, Stubbs was safe at first, and Volquez would also be ruled safe, but fairly returned to second base.

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At the time of this writing the Reds are nine games out of first place, pending what the Milwaukee Brewers do later. They have just lost the series to the upstart Chicago Cubs and try (I hope) to avoid a sweep tomorrow afternoon.

When your ace blows up you know it is not your day. That is what happened today to Johnny Cueto. After looking like one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, he was shelled for seven hits and five earned runs in less than four innings.

The Cubs who are on a seven-game win streak looked anything but doormats for the rest of the NL Central Division. Carlos Zambrano, (9-6) picked up the win and belted a home run in the 11-4 trouncing of the defending Divisional Champions.

The only bright spot I saw in the game was the continued hot heating of Yonder Alonso who hit his first MLB dinger today, becoming the 17th Reds player to hit their inaugural home run in Wrigley Field.

As for Alonso, if anybody was ever made to be a designated hitter it is he. He absolutely looked pitiful in left field today, but the entire team looked like a comedy of errors. Todd Frazier, Edgar Renteria and Alonso all made errors in what certainly looked like a team just finishing out the year.

All-Star second baseman Brandon Phillips left the game in the fourth inning after spraining his right ankle in a collision with outfielder Drew Stubbs.

The S.O.S. Stubbs continued to disappoint striking out twice, and looking nothing like the defensive player he is.

The game smelled like September, with so many different players at positions they are not normally seen. Miguel Cairo had to spell Phillips, Frazier played third, and Alonso was in left field.

It is hard to imagine how this team could possibly bounce back and become a factor in the division. Even if they became white hot, they would have to depend upon the Brew Crew to grow tired of winning in order to climb the latter.

They have just lost a series to both teams lower in the standings than themselves. That will not get the job done. It would be hard to imagine that Dusty Baker and GM, Walt Jocketty aren’t having some back office meetings.

There is so much wrong that it becomes difficult to see where the malignancy actually started. Guys are having problems pitching, guys can’t hit and strikeout in crucial situations, and now the injury bug is starting to creep in.

With so much wrong on a team widely seen as very talented, the trigger could be pulled at the top, with Baker looking for a new gig or sliding back into the booth at ESPN. I haven’t heard any winds but the timing would be right.

You may feel free to continue in hopeful bliss, but this writer has seen enough to call it a year. I think it is time for a fire sale. The Reds should start playing people they expect to start in 2012, seeing what deals can be made with dead weight players like Coco Cordero and Edinson Volquez.

They should throw Aroldis Chapman into the deep end of the pool. If he swims, praise the Lord. If he doesn’t then he becomes fodder for the trade mill. Either let him start games now or mold him into a closer. Middle relief is where pitchers go to die.

There is always next year, but hey let us at least see what we have on the farm. Is something wrong that Billy Hamilton can’t be promoted? He is playing a tad over high school ball in Dayton. Low Single A, come on, if he is an untouchable start implementing him into the system.

It is time for all of us to cinch up the old apple sacks and face reality. It’s over.

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With a bad team, arranging the batting lineup is akin to rearranging deck chairs on the titanic, but on a contending team like the Reds, I believe there are a few adjustments that could be made that will help the team as a whole.

Without further ado, with numbers to back up my thoughts, I present what would look like a good everyday starting lineup for the Cincinnati Reds.

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After the first month of the season, are the Reds still the team to beat in the NL Central Division? They have most of the same faces from their division-winning 2010 season.

Gone is Orlando Cabrera, but his spot is taken by Janish being promoted to a starter and Edgar Renteria filling in. No huge loss there.

Also gone is Laynce Nix. A reserve outfielder who contributed quite frequently, he will not be missed as Chris Heisey’s fills in more than adquately now as the fourth outfielder. Throw in outfielders Fred Lewis and Jeremy Hermida and it makes you wonder if Nix would play much if he were still here.

After several seasons as the “ace” of the staff, Aaron Harang’s option was not picked up and he was taken by San Diego. He is doing quite well with them, and I am glad for him.

The Reds have talent and plenty of it. Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes provide a powerful outfield. A starting infield of Scott Rolen at third, Janish at short, Brandon Phillips at second and NL MVP Joey Votto at first is one of the best in the league, certainly in the division.

Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez are a catching tandem that is probably tops in baseball.

The pitching is where the water has become murky. They began the season with only 60% of their starting rotation intact. They have done poorly when looking at the complete body of work. Their ERA is one of the highest in the league. Now that Edinson Volquez has left the first inning scoreless twice in a row, good things are beginning to happen.

Homer Bailey pitched six strong innings Thursday in his first start of the year. Jonny Cueto will start his first game against the Cubs on Sunday.

Their chief rivalry will come from the St. Louis Cardinals who came on strong after a dismal first week or so. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday are among the league leaders in all offensive categories and Albert Pujols is beginning to make some noise.

The Cards pitching rotation has been better than most people thought they would, given the fact that Adam Wainwright was lost for the year before it started. Second-year man Jaime Garcia has been impressive, tossing a two-hit shutout Friday. Their Achilles heel thus far has been the deep part of the bullpen. Blown saves are the only thing that keeps them from being in a virtual cakewalk right now.

Many thought that the Milwaukee Brewers would win the division since they acquired starting pitchers Shawn Marcum and Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. Both were hurt at the start of the season, and they started a little slow.

After being swept in the first season series by the Reds, the Brewers came on strong and were just a half-game off the pace. They have lost six straight and eight out of their last 10 to fall within one game of the cellar.

The Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros are attempting to keep their heads above water. One is as bad as the other at this point, so I do not see them being major factors in the pennant race.

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With opening day only three days away, the Cincinnati Reds roster is looking more like the Walking Wounded than a defending champion.

A pitching rotation of Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Travis Wood, Mike Leake and probably Sam LeCure will not strike fear into the hearts of the collective sluggers of the Milwaukee Brewers. Their combined ERA is 6.45.

Arroyo is currently suffering through a bout of Mononucleosis, while would-be starters Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto are starting the season on the shelf.

Spring Training sensation Dave Sappelt, along with pitcher Dontrelle Willis will begin the season in Louisville while Jeremy Hermida will throw his line into the waters of the MLB to see if there are any bites.

The Reds pitching this spring has been terrible for the most part. Volquez was rocked in his last show before he opens the season on Thursday. He has worked only 9+ innings this spring in preparation for the season premiere and boasts an 8.38 ERA in two starts.

The final position spot on the 25-man roster is a battle between home grown Juan Francisco and newcomer Fred Lewis. On paper Francisco would be a lead pipe cinch but with Dusty Baker’s love for veterans, it is anybody’s guess. Lewis has a minor injury so that could be a factor.

In my opinion, as controversial as it may be at times, would have been to keep Hermida and let Lewis hang with the Bats for a little while. Hermida has had a real good spring, batting .342 with 3 HR and an OBP of .458.

Lewis has an anemic average of .205 but is among the team leaders with 11 RBI.

The final two cuts for the bullpen will involve a final four of Matt Maloney, Jared Burton, Logan Ondrusek and Jose Arredondo. My money is on Ondrusek and Burton to remain with the mother ship as the other two will probably begin the season with the Bats in Louisville.

This is my best guess of what you will see when the game starts Thursday:

1. Drew Stubbs – CF

2. Brandon Phillips -2B

3. Joey Votto – 1B

4. Scott Rolen – 3B

5. Jay Bruce – RF

6. Jonny Gomes – LF

7. Ryan Hanigan – C

8. Paul Janish – SS

9. Edinson Volquez – P

It looks a little bleak right now, but buck up kids, the Reds are going to REPEAT this season.

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Everyone knows the Reds have a vault of young talent. Everybody knows about Joey Votto, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce and Aroldis Chapman. Most have heard about Chris Heisey , Mike Leake, Travis Wood, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Francisco, Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier and Chris Valaika.

Here comes a serious question: Have you ever heard of center fielder Dave Sappelt? I had not before this spring training.

He is currently leading the Reds in home runs, RBI, hits and total bases. Among players with more than three at-bats, he also leads in batting average and slugging percentage.

I realize this is just the first couple of weeks of spring training, but I am getting excited about the young man. I was watching FoxSports Ohio the other day and saw his long home run against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Am I saying he is going to beat out Stubbs for his job? No. He will not even beat out Jonny Gomes for the left field post. It is predestined that he will be a starting outfielder for the Louisville Bats on opening day.

I must say, he certainly is exciting to watch.

In 15 ABs, he has scored four runs and tallied eight hits, two HRs and four RBI with a BA and OBP of .533 and a .933 SLG. It is a microscopic sampling, but it is clearly a man taking advantage of his opportunity.

If he were miraculously to make the squad, he would probably be the sixth outfielder on the depth chart, probably behind Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Fred Lewis and Heisey.

It is amazing to see all of the talent that the Reds organization has grown on the farm. They have a super abundance of young talent meshed with veterans like Scott Rolen, Miguel Cairo, Gomes, Ramon Hernandez, Lewis, Bronson Arroyo, Coco Cordero, Brandon Phillips and the newest arrival, Edgar Renteria.

Notice is hereby served to the rest of the National League’s Central Division: The Reds are back with a mission—to REPEAT.

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At one time Brandon Phillips was considered among the cream of the crop of second basemen.  In 2007 he posted his only career 30/30 campaign.  In the two subsequent seasons he followed it up with 20/20 years, clearly keeping him among the elite at his position.

The 2010 season, however, saw him return to the leadoff spot to mixed results:

626 At Bats
.275 Batting Average (172 Hits)
18 Home Runs
59 RBI
100 Runs
16 Stolen Bases
.332 On-Base Percentage
.430 Slugging Percentage
.293 Batting Average on Balls in Play

His game really doesn’t lend itself to the top of the order, though it did help him to his second career 100+ R campaign.  However, wouldn’t you expect to see his stolen base total increase, not decrease?

One of the problems was that he was caught stealing 12 times, a career high.  The prior four years he had stolen at least 25 bases and, at 29 years old, is it really possible that he just suddenly lost his ability to swipe a bag?  Unlikely, to say the least.  

He should be able to return to his 20+ SB days without a big issue in 2011.

As for the power, outside of his 30 HR breakout in 2007, he has been in the 17-21 HR range in his four full seasons.  Hitter’s paradise or not, it appears that this is the type of power he possesses.  There is certainly nothing wrong with it, but just don’t go drafting him expecting anything more.

The run production is simply going to depend on where in the lineup he hits.  While he did struggle to a .246 average with runners in scoring position, the fact that he was hitting leadoff was more responsible for his low RBI total.  If the Reds were to move him back down to fourth or fifth in the order, it would almost be a given that he returns to driving in 90+ R.

However, there is a trade off, since it would be virtually impossible for him to score over 100 runs.  With poor on-base skills (career .316 mark) and without the Joey Votto’s of the world behind him, it is just not going to happen.

Let’s see how it all comes together for my 2011 projection:

.277 (166-600), 18 HR, 65 RBI, 100 R, 20 SB, .297 BABIP, .332 OBP, .435 SLG

Clearly, this is based on the idea of him returning to the leadoff spot this season.  At this point I just don’t see many other options, unless they feel Drew Stubbs can handle the duties. 

However, with the emergence of Jay Bruce, I don’t see the Reds feeling the need to thrust Phillips into the cleanup spot as they have in the past.

Wherever he hits, he’s going to have value.  He should put up a solid average to go along with nearly 20/20 production.  Whether he has 100 R and 65 RBI or 90 RBI and 75 R, he should be in the realm of 165 runs produced.  That certainly is nothing to complain about. 

Are they elite numbers?  No, but they are good enough to consider him a step below the best in the league.

What are your thoughts of Phillips?  Is he still an elite second baseman?  Where do you rank him?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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If you play in a standard five-by-five league (i.e., one that includes batting average), you will want to check out our standard league rankings by clicking here.  For those who utilize OBP, let’s take a look at how that changes the rankings (and it does so fairly significantly):

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
4. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
5. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
6. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
7. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
8. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
9. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
10. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
11. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners
15. Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Minnesota Twins

Thoughts:

• Ben Zobrist struggled in ’10, no one is going to argue that fact, but he still managed a 14.0 percent walk rate.  That helped him post a .346 OBP despite struggling with a .273 BABIP.  Let’s not forget that he is just a year removed from a .405 OBP courtesy of a 15.2 percent walk rate and .326 BABIP.  There certainly is reason to believe that he could post a tremendous mark once again in ’11.  Couple that with 20/20 potential and there is an awful lot to like, pushing him significantly up this list.
• The player who falls the most thanks to the removal of average and addition of on-base percentage is Aaron Hill.  Even in his big, breakout 2009 campaign (.286, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R), he managed just a .330 OBP thanks to a 5.7 percent walk rate.  Yes, the average is going to rebound due to his historic poor luck in ’10 (you can read more about it by clicking here), but he’s just never going to post a strong OBP (career .325 mark).
• Another loser is Brandon Phillips, who has a career walk rate of 5.9 percent and OBP of .316.  You still have to like him thanks to 20/20 potential, but there certainly are options with significantly more upside in the OBP department.  One who is close is Martin Prado, but his advantage in OBP isn’t enough considering Phillips could out produce him in HR, SB, RBI and R (depending on where he hits in the lineup).
• Tsuyoshi Nishioka posted a 12.2 percent walk rate over his last two seasons in Japan.  Granted, we really don’t know how his game is going to translate to the Major Leagues, but at that point in the draft he is well worth the risk due to his potential in OBP, R and SB.
• Who should be listed at No. 4, Dan Uggla or Ian Kinsler?  I know we all want to push Uggla up, thanks to OBP of .360, .354 and .369 the past three years but we can’t overlook Kinsler’s abilities as well.  In 2008 he actually posted an OBP of .375 and last season he was at .382.  Of course, he always struggles with injuries and his walk rate has fluctuated by a fairly large margin from year to year.  I’m going to give Uggla the nod for now, but it certainly is open for discussion.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 OBP rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen

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