Kuzul

It’s hard enough to find five good starting pitchers. But the high occurrence of injuries to pitchers in this day and age commonly forces teams to utilize at least eight or nine starting pitchers to get through a 162-game season.

As a result, certain characteristics have become extremely important when assembling a starting rotation. Without a good combination of consistency, durability and reliability, things can get ugly very quickly. 

And this is why pitchers like Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett, even as they enter their age-37 seasons, are so valuable to a pitching staff. You pretty much know what you’re going to get—30-plus starts, ERA in the mid-3.00s, 200 innings, etc.

Most importantly, their teams know that when they take the mound every fifth day, they will have given their teams a chance to win by the time they depart after six or seven innings. 

So that’s why a team like the Baltimore Orioles, who could already throw out a pretty good starting five on Opening Day (Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman), are looking to add one of the two free-agent starters.

According to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, the O’s are more interested in the stability that Arroyo or Burnett could bring to their rotation as opposed to the top three free-agent starters—Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana—who will be paid big money for what they can potentially do, despite having careers that have had extreme highs and lows. 

Which of Arroyo or Burnett would be more effective in Baltimore? Let’s take a closer look.

The 10-year comparisons show two pitchers who have had similarly successful big league careers, with the most notable differences being Burnett’s much higher strikeout rate and Arroyo’s much higher home run totals. Burnett throws much harder, and Arroyo has pitched most of his career in a hitter-friendly ballpark, so that shouldn’t come as a big surprise. 

What this 10-year average doesn’t show is the consistency level that each pitcher has displayed. Aside from Burnett’s last two seasons with the New York Yankees, in which he posted an ERA over 5.00, and Arroyo’s 2011 season, in which he posted a 5.07 ERA with a league-leading 46 homers allowed, the overall numbers aren’t much different from year to year.

During the last two seasons, however, Arroyo and Burnett have been in top form. 

Arroyo has improved upon an already strong BB/9 rate, while Burnett has gotten particularly stingy at allowing the long ball. Both have become even more reliable, however, when it comes to quality starts (at least six innings pitched, no more than three earned runs allowed). 

Taking that a step further, Arroyo pitched at least seven innings in 14 of his 32 starts in 2013, while failing to complete six innings in only eight of his starts. He also allowed two earned runs or fewer in 17 starts, while allowing three or four earned runs in 10 starts and five earned runs or more only five times. 

Burnett (pictured) made it through seven innings in 15 of his 30 starts, while failing to complete six innings in 10 of those. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 starts, while allowing three or four earned runs five times and five earned runs or more in his other five starts. 

There were only seven occasions in their combined 62 starts in 2013—four for Arroyo and three for Burnett—when either of them left the game without giving their team a pretty good chance of winning the game.

It’s hard to get much more consistent than that. It’s hard to be more reliable than that.

So which is the better fit in Baltimore?

Both have been successful in the NL Central, but what about the AL East? Burnett, despite a rough ending to his Yankees career, had three very good seasons with Toronto and one with New York. Arroyo’s first two full seasons as a starting pitcher came with Boston. 

Arroyo has experience and a proven track record of success pitching in one of the most homer-friendly parks in the majors. The homer-friendly confines of Camden Yards shouldn’t faze him one bit.

Burnett doesn’t give up many homers. He only gave up 11 homers in 191 innings pitched last season. But he’s allowed 10 homers in 62.1 career innings at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while posting a 5.03 ERA. 

While that small sample size of struggles in Baltimore won’t scare the O’s away from Burnett, it could cause them to lean toward Arroyo. 

Arroyo, however, will require a two-year commitment, maybe even three, likely in the $7-10 million range, while Burnett, if he chooses to keep pitching, would likely settle for a one-year deal in the $10-15 million range. 

It’s a close call, and I don’t think the O’s would end up regretting the signing of either pitcher. But if I had to choose between, say, Arroyo at two years and $20 million, or Burnett at one year and $14 million, I’d go with Burnett. 

There’s a strong possibility that Gausman could be the ace of the 2015 staff and fellow pitching prospects Dylan Bundy, Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Wright could all be ready for a full season in the majors. In addition, Tillman, Chen, Norris and Gonzalez would all still be under team control. Giving any free-agent pitcher more than one season seems unnecessary at this point. 

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In New York, the Yankees are preparing to spend money like it’s 2008 all over again. Five years after drowning their third-place finish sorrows away by spending over $400 million combined on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees are poised to hand out big-money deals. The names have changed, but the objective remains to spend.

According to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees are heading to next week’s general manager meetings armed with cash to spend on free agents.

After watching the steady and reliable Andy Pettitte retire and allowing the unsteady and unreliable Phil Hughes to walk away without a qualifying offer, one of general manager Brian Cashman’s main offseason priorities is to find starting pitching behind Sabathia and Ivan Nova in the five-man rotation. Unless Hiroki Kuroda accepts another one-year deal, three potential spots are open.

Even if Michael Pineda emerges from a two-year shoulder rehab to re-capture his 2011 form, the Yankees will need multiple arms to fill out a good rotation. At least one of them will likely emerge from the free-agent market.

Using Heyman’s projected contracts for each of the six starters on New York’s radar, here’s a ranking of the best values of the group. The rankings are based on a 1-10 scale, with higher numbers signifying a better value for the Yankees organization.

Masahiro Tanaka

The 24-year-old Japanese star is the ideal target for New York’s offseason spending plans. As the franchise attempts to spend big while staying under the $189 million luxury tax in 2014, Tanaka represents the best of both worlds.

As chronicled in a September primer, Tanaka profiles as a top-tier starter in the majors. Even if he’s not a true No. 1 starter, adding him to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter is sufficient for New York’s bottom line. 

According to Heyman, a seven-year, $140 million contract is reasonable for Tanaka, but only half of that will actually go the the player. With $70 million allotted as a posting fee for the rights to speak with Tanaka’s agent, the Yankees would only be spending $10 million per season, against the luxury tax, on a pitcher with the potential to emerge as a valuable contributor.

Value ranking: 8

Matt Garza

Despite including Garza, along with Jacoby Ellsbury, as free-agent targets the Yankees should avoid this winter, he’s the second-best value on this board.

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2008, Garza has amassed a 108 ERA+ over 1,049.1 innings pitched. Although that’s good for third on this list, not including Tanaka’s stats from Japan, behind Jimenez (112) and Haren (111), the former Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers starter has brought something to the table the others have not: consistency.

Despite never accumulating one great season or finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting, Garza has never posted a season with an ERA over 4.00. By maintaining a level performance for six straight seasons, the Yankees will know what they are paying for when offering a contract to the 29-year-old right-handed pitcher.

If Garza’s deal comes in near the five-year, $85 million projection, it will be a decent deal for both player and team.

Value ranking: 6

Dan Haren

When the 2011 season ended, Dan Haren looked like the type of pitcher who was poised to eventually hit the free-agent jackpot. After wrapping up an excellent season for the Los Angeles Angels, Haren was the owner of a career-adjusted ERA of 119, according to Baseball-Reference.com. His ability to pitch in both the NL (Arizona, St. Louis) and the AL (Oakland, Los Angeles) made him one of the surest things in the sport.

Over the last two seasons, however, the wheels have come off for the former right-handed ace. Over 60 starts in 2012 and 2013, Haren pitched to a 84 ERA+ over 346.1 innings, per Baseball-Reference.com. That adjusted ERA was 16 percent below league average. In the span of two years, Haren went from nearly 20 percent better than the average pitcher to nearly 20 percent worse. 

Still, the projection of a one-year deal worth less than $10 million is far from a ridiculous pact. Even though Haren is not the pitcher he was just two seasons ago, he’s still a lock for 30-plus starts every year. If the Yankees truly need two veteran starters, they could do worse than inking Haren to be the second-tier arm. 

Value ranking: 5

Bronson Arroyo

As the offseason unfolds, the Yankees can attempt to fix their rotation issues by acquiring high-end ability (Tanaka, Garza), signing a low-risk, high-reward arm (Haren), or, in a route that won’t be as popular in New York, turning spring training into a competition between young arms like David Phelps and Michael Pineda.

If that’s the route Brian Cashman takes, an ultra-reliable arm will be needed if or when the young arms falter during the rigors of a 162-game season. If innings are needed, Bronson Arroyo fits the bill. Over the last nine years, Arroyo has cleared the 199-inning plateau in every single season. 

Of course, the drawback with Arroyo is a lack of upside. As he gets set to embark on his age-37 season, expecting greatness is foolish. Over 14 seasons, the former Boston Red Sox farmhand has pitched to an adjusted ERA of 104. 

On a one or two-year deal, the fit would be ideal. The projection of a three-year, $35 million pact is too high for a pitcher who has little upside.

Value ranking: 4

Ubaldo Jimenez

Will the real Ubaldo Jimenez please stand up? When baseball executives prepare offer sheets for the free-agent starter, it’s likely the offers will vary based on which version of the pitcher is expected to arrive in 2014.

If the Jimenez of 2010 and 2013 is on the market, he’s worth every dollar of the four-year, $68 million deal that is projected by Jon Heyman. If the Jimenez of 2011 and 2012 is back, anything more than a one-year deal is foolish.

The following chart isolates the contrasting versions of Jimenez. Notice the strikeout and strikeout-to-walk numbers. When the former Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians starter has command, he’s excellent. When that command disappears, he’s very easy to hit.

For the money he’ll likely receive, there’s too much variance in performance to be comfortable in New York.

Value ranking: 3

Scott Feldman

Unlike the other pitchers on this list, Feldman doesn’t provide bang for the buck, upside, variance in performance or long-term durability. After 234 outings, Feldman isn’t a surprise anymore. At age 30, the right-handed pitcher should only be brought aboard to compete for a spot in the back-end of a rotation and given no more than a one-year deal.

According to Heyman’s projections, a two-year, $20 million deal could be in his future. For that cash, New York could sign both Haren and Arroyo. 

If February rolls around and Feldman is still available, any team should explore trying to bring him in as spring-training injury insurance or to compete with a young arm on a one-year deal. Until that scenario presents itself, the Yankees would be wise to allocate their funds on an arm who can give them something concrete for the money spent.

Value ranking: 2

Agree? Disagree?

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Although the Cincinnati Reds lost in a wild 13-inning ordeal to the Washington Nationals on Friday night, one player’s performance was good news for the struggling Reds.

Bronson Arroyo, who struggled in his first start of the 2012 season, threw a gem for Cincinnati while the Reds’ bats lay dormant.

In 7.1 innings pitched, Arroyo gave up no runs on only four baserunners (3 hits, 1 walk). He displayed improved command and managed fewer than 100 pitches through his seven-plus innings performance.

As a side note, while the Reds’ bats managed only five hits through 13 innings, Arroyo helped himself by knocking in the Reds’ only run with a sacrifice fly in the top of the fifth inning. Arroyo also had one of the team’s five hits.

Friday’s start was a much-needed improvement over Arroyo’s first start, in which he gave up four earned runs on 10 hits in 6.1 innings pitched. Arroyo was on the hook for a loss after departing in the seventh inning before the Reds’ bats responded with a walk-off win in the ninth inning.

Arroyo struggled through most of 2011, posting a 9-12 record and 5.07 ERA through 199 innings. The 2011 campaign was the first season since 2005 that Arroyo did not post at least 200 innings pitched (albeit he missed by a single inning).

For much of the 2011 season Arroyo was speculated to be either sick or hurt. Velocity was down on his fastball, and his breaking pitches just didn’t seem to break as much as before.

Arroyo was diagnosed with mononucleosis early on, but it was later reported he had gotten over the illness. Yet his pitching improved very little.

Reds fans everywhere must be hoping Arroyo will continue to put out performances like Friday night throughout the rest of the season. The Reds will need Arroyo performing if they are going to make a playoff run in 2012.

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With opening day only three days away, the Cincinnati Reds roster is looking more like the Walking Wounded than a defending champion.

A pitching rotation of Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Travis Wood, Mike Leake and probably Sam LeCure will not strike fear into the hearts of the collective sluggers of the Milwaukee Brewers. Their combined ERA is 6.45.

Arroyo is currently suffering through a bout of Mononucleosis, while would-be starters Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto are starting the season on the shelf.

Spring Training sensation Dave Sappelt, along with pitcher Dontrelle Willis will begin the season in Louisville while Jeremy Hermida will throw his line into the waters of the MLB to see if there are any bites.

The Reds pitching this spring has been terrible for the most part. Volquez was rocked in his last show before he opens the season on Thursday. He has worked only 9+ innings this spring in preparation for the season premiere and boasts an 8.38 ERA in two starts.

The final position spot on the 25-man roster is a battle between home grown Juan Francisco and newcomer Fred Lewis. On paper Francisco would be a lead pipe cinch but with Dusty Baker’s love for veterans, it is anybody’s guess. Lewis has a minor injury so that could be a factor.

In my opinion, as controversial as it may be at times, would have been to keep Hermida and let Lewis hang with the Bats for a little while. Hermida has had a real good spring, batting .342 with 3 HR and an OBP of .458.

Lewis has an anemic average of .205 but is among the team leaders with 11 RBI.

The final two cuts for the bullpen will involve a final four of Matt Maloney, Jared Burton, Logan Ondrusek and Jose Arredondo. My money is on Ondrusek and Burton to remain with the mother ship as the other two will probably begin the season with the Bats in Louisville.

This is my best guess of what you will see when the game starts Thursday:

1. Drew Stubbs – CF

2. Brandon Phillips -2B

3. Joey Votto – 1B

4. Scott Rolen – 3B

5. Jay Bruce – RF

6. Jonny Gomes – LF

7. Ryan Hanigan – C

8. Paul Janish – SS

9. Edinson Volquez – P

It looks a little bleak right now, but buck up kids, the Reds are going to REPEAT this season.

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Finding pitchers who help in the WHIP department is not always an easy task; finding one late in your draft (after Round 18) is even tougher. 

Here are five pitchers who I have projected for a 1.30 WHIP or better who are available late in your draft (based on Mock Draft Central’s ADP):

Brian Matusz – Baltimore Orioles

He may be a tough sell, considering that he is entering his second full season and is pitching in the AL East. 

Still, in the minor leagues he posted a 2.55 BB/9 and 9.64 K/9 (the higher the strikeout rate, the lower the dependence on BABIP in regards to the WHIP).

Those two numbers have the makings of an elite mark.

While he wasn’t quite that good in his rookie year, he was good enough, with a 3.23 BB/9 and 7.33 K/9. Coupled with a .292 BABIP, he posted a 1.34 WHIP. 

With a year of experience under his belt, there certainly is reason to believe that he can improve across the board. That certainly would lead to a better WHIP.

Plus, before you say it’s impossible to post a good WHIP in the AL East, just look at these marks:

• Shaun Marcum – 1.15
• Jeremy Guthrie – 1.16
• Clay Buchholz – 1.20
• Jeff Niemann – 1.26
• Ricky Romero – 1.29

Those aren’t the Jon Lester’s or CC Sabathia’s of the world, either.

Matusz certainly has the potential and could be a great source late in your draft.

Ian Kennedy – Arizona Diamondbacks

In his first full season in the Major Leagues, Kennedy showed why he was high on the Yankees prospect list, posting a 1.20 WHIP thanks to a 3.25 BB/9 and .256 BABIP. 

Obviously, the BABIP is not realistic, though the walks are thanks to a minor league career BB/9 of 2.79.

With his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the walks, it is no wonder that he can be a good source of WHIP for fantasy owners. 

Obviously I wouldn’t count on a 1.20, but there is no reason that, with his proven skills, that he can’t provide for fantasy owners.

Jake Peavy – Chicago White Sox

There are probably a couple of reasons Peavy is being selected late in drafts. 

One is his health, as he tries to recover from a detached ligament. It’s an extremely rare injury and no one really knows exactly what to expect. 

At first, it appeared that he was going to miss at least a little time early in the season, but now that may not be the case. There also was the concern about moving to the AL, which is a very fair concern.

That is more geared towards his ERA, however, not his WHIP. 

In 107.0 innings with the White Sox in ’10 he still managed a 1.23 WHIP. He throws strikes (2.91 career BB/9) and gets strikeouts (8.93 career K/9), which helps limit the effect of BABIP. 

As it is, his BABIP the past four seasons has been between .273 and .280, helping to WHIPs of:

• 2007 – 1.06
• 2008 – 1.18
• 2009 – 1.12
• 2010 – 1.23

There’s a lot of risk, but there is also a huge potential reward.

Bronson Arroyo – Cincinnati Reds

We all know what we are getting when we select Arroyo. 

On occasion, he is going to post a real clunker. He’s not going to post much in the way of strikeouts. He is going to limit the walks.

For his career, he has a 2.73 BB/9 and in ’10 he was at 2.46. While his 1.15 from ’10 is highly unlikely (it came courtesy of a .239 BABIP), he does have a career mark of 1.31 (which is skewed from poor years in ’07 & ’08, due to inflated BABIP).

He’s a late round option for a reason, because he has very little “upside.” 

Still, if you have a staff built with strikeouts and need a steady WHIP option who is going to win games (15 or more each of the past three years), Arroyo certainly has value.

Scott Baker/Kevin Slowey – Minnesota Twins

Interestingly enough, they are competing for the Twins’ fifth starters job, which may help to explain why both are currently available in the later rounds. 

There are rumors that Slowey could be traded, which will help clear up who to target (the answer would be both of them). For now, we are going to have to monitor the news and see how it all plays out.

I believe it was two seasons ago that I wrote an article entitled “Scott Baker the WHIP Maker.” While 2010 is not the best example (1.34), he was at 1.18 and 1.19 the two previous years. He has impeccable control (2.10 career BB/9) and, if the luck returns (he had a .323 BABIP in ’10), there is no reason why he couldn’t get back to the elite numbers. 

If he wins the job (and he currently appears to be the favorite), he’s an absolute bargain.

Slowey, remarkably, is an even better control artist, with a career BB/9 of 1.50 over 473.1 innings—even with a .307 BABIP in ’10 he posted a 1.29 WHIP. 

He is more of a fly ball pitcher (50.6 percent fly ball rate in ’10), so a trade would have a huge impact on his potential value. 

Regardless, with his control, he could be a monster WHIP option.

What are your thoughts of these options? Would you target any of them? Is there someone else you would look at late in your draft to help with WHIP?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Five Sources of Speed
• Five Sources of Strikeouts

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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I was always under the impression that the starting pitcher on Opening Day was the best pitcher on the staff. That was until last season, when Dusty Baker gave the ball to Aaron Harang for a record-tying fifth consecutive season.

That is a stiff indictment against a pitching staff. Something must be wrong for a man to start game one in back-to-back seasons while winning only six games the previous year.

Bronson Arroyo should have started in the opener last season, but watched as the Reds were routed by the St. Louis Cardinals, 11-6.  Arroyo is so mellow and type-B, that it was not a big deal to him.

This season, Baker announced (seemingly from day one of spring training) that his opener would be Edinson Volquez. Yes, that Volquez. The Tommy John surgery undergoing, steroid-taking, flat-billed hat-wearing, Josh Hamilton-traded-for, Dominican Republic-born enigma, with back-to-back four-win seasons.

So, how does he rate the big honor? I suppose he is still basking in the glory of his freshman year with the Reds when he made the All-Star team and was 17-6.

Arroyo has been one of the best work-horses in MLB since coming to Cincinnati in a trade for Willy Mo Pena in 2006.

Since then, he has pitched more innings than anyone in the National League, and is fourth overall. The only ones with more innings are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Dan Haren. Nobody else has started more games than he has during that period.

I don’t recall him missing any starts since joining the Reds.

In 2010, he finished fourth in the NL in wins with 17. It is hard to see how anyone could find Volquez deserving of an Opening Day shot over Arroyo.

The last time he was seen in live baseball, he was being rocked by the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the first round of the NL playoffs. In less than two innings, he faced 11 batters and left the game with an ERA over 21, and of course was tagged with the loss.

Why didn’t Baker start southpaw Travis Wood that game? He nearly threw a perfect game at those same Phillies last year.

There is nothing magical about starting on Opening Day. But it should at least be an honorarium for work done the previous season.

Again, Arroyo let it roll off like water on a duck’s back. He said it was fine with him as he enjoys watching the opening game from the dugout.

Baker’s justification for the nod to Volquez is, “You want to go hard, soft, hard. You want to break up Cueto and Volquez so they don’t go out and out-radar gun each other.”

Nothing wrong with that logic, but what is wrong with soft, hard, soft, hard?

A rotation of Arroyo, Volquez, Leake, Cueto and Wood could accomplish the same mission. It seems weird seeing the words “radar gun” without Aroldis Chapman’s name mentioned.

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Let me make something clear from the jump: I like Dusty Baker.

I like the way he jiggles toothpicks between his teeth, popping them around anxiously as he stares at his lineup card and contemplates a double switch. I like the way he tells it like it is to reporters, avoiding the tired manager clichés and speaking from his gut.

And, I like the way that when the game is on the line, he becomes as big a fan as the rest of us, slapping his hands together after a crucial strikeout and pumping his brittle, 62-year-old fists in the air when his closer slams the door.

More importantly, however, Dusty has brought success to Cincinnati, something very few managers in recent memory have done.

Since joining the Reds in 2008, Baker made modest strides his first two seasons, only to guide his 2010 squad to a National League Central title, the Reds’ first playoff berth in 15 years.

While many will point to the emergence of young pitching talent and the MVP season of Joey Votto, the Reds’ triumphant 2010 campaign can just as easily be traced back to Baker.

When he isn’t fly fishing in Colorado, spinning yarns from his playing days or traveling to Cuba to sample jazz records, Baker has been the consummate player’s coach. He stands behind his men at every juncture, and (at least in 2010) puts them in the best position to succeed.

Now, I’ll be the first to admit that when Baker signed on, his ghosts from Chicago worried me. Known to be partial to crotchety veterans, wary of youth and a Grim Reaper to young power arms (see: Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark), Baker’s arrival in Cincinnati was met roundly by fan trepidation.

After all, Reds followers had endured years of teams led by the likes of the Rich Aurilias and Jason Larues of the world. In a transition filled with anticipation and hope, the last thing fans wanted was to witness a guy continuously ignore young talent while sending top pitching prospects Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto to the operating table.

To be fair, though, Baker set out immediately to disprove his national reputation. While starting the 2008 season with Scott Hatteberg at first, Baker soon embraced the promise of a young Votto, steadily upping his playing time until he unseated the incumbent first basemen for good.

Baker also deserves a portion of the credit for turning Edinson Volquez, fresh off the plane from the Texas Rangers and saddled with mixed scouting reports, into a 17-game winner and an All-Star his first year with the Reds.

More recently, Baker allowed himself the foresight to let rookie Mike Leake crack the Reds’ 2010 Opening Day roster. Leake quickly became the stalwart of the Reds rotation in the first half.

Yes, in Baker’s three seasons in Cincy, he’s come a long way, not only in cleansing his national reputation, but also in earning the trust and admiration of many Reds fans. However, when Baker named Edinson Volquez his Opening Day starter on Tuesday (barely a week into Spring Training), he took a step backward.

Some will support Baker’s announcement, citing Volquez’ 2008 totals and arguing he is the only Reds starter with true “number one stuff.” Others will blast Baker for the move, as he surely has two more deserving starters in Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto. 

A third contingent will look at Baker’s decision and wonder if it wasn’t just a classic case of Baker over-analyzing his way into another stumble-bum move.

Now, before we consider Baker’s reasons for basically designating Volquez the ace, let’s take stock of the options he had to choose from. In one corner, we have Arroyo, a five-year Red and fresh off of two straight seasons of at least 15 wins (17 in 2010) and a sub-4.00 ERA.

In the opposite corner we have Cueto, still only 24, but who has increased his win total in each of the past three years and has been as reliable a starter as the Reds have had in that time frame. Both Arroyo and Cueto were recently awarded lucrative contract extensions, and both are assured spots in Cincinnati’s 2011 rotation.

Then we have Volquez. Proud owner of eight total wins over the last two years, Volquez spent the 2010 season adding insult to injury, as he was suspended for testing positive for an illegal drug. Volquez’ insistence that what the tests showed were female fertility drugs did little to mitigate his case in the eyes of MLB officials or Reds fans.

Conveniently, Volquez was able to serve out his suspension as he rehabbed from “Tommy John” ligament surgery, but between his injury-marred 2009 and his rehab/lady-pill-stunted 2010, Volquez saw very little of the field.

Yet, despite some very obvious signs pointing in several equally-logical directions, Baker chose the road less expected. When naming Volquez as his ‘numero uno’ to start the season, Baker attempted to explain his rationale.

First, he contended, Arroyo didn’t necessarily want the start. Okay. I suppose I can swallow that. Arroyo has long been known to despise pitching in day games (Opening Day’s first pitch is at 2:10 p.m.), preferring instead to spend his afternoons wearing sunglasses and nursing hangovers.

Fair enough.

Next, Baker said he wanted to split up his hard-throwers with a soft-tosser. Again, I am okay with Arroyo going in the two-spot if he prefers it, but that doesn’t mean I’m buying the whole “rotating the rotation” argument.

Last time I checked, the Phillies weren’t worried about pitching the hard-throwing Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee back-to-back, and I’m pretty sure the Giants are fine with their one-two studly punch of Lincecum and Cain.

Yet, let’s say for the sake of argument that Dusty’s second reason held up: It’s still not cause to send Volquez out before Cueto.

Baker went on to address Cueto in his next point. When asked why Cueto wasn’t getting the nod, Baker drew on his extensive psychological acumen, explaining that Cueto had just signed a three-year contract, and was “already under enough pressure” to perform.

Now, I may not be the MOST astute observer in the world, but to me that statement begs a couple of rudimentary questions. First, what exactly are “we” paying Cueto for, if not to step his game up a level and perform well under increased scrutiny?

If, instead of signing Cueto, the Reds went out and purchased some other young fire-baller in his prime, wouldn’t the new guy in town be expected to perform at a level commensurate with his paycheck? Why should Cueto be any different?

Also, if we want to talk about pressure, we shouldn’t forget the weight Volquez carries on his shoulders after being traded for all-world star Josh Hamilton, performing prodigiously in his first Reds season, only to crash suddenly back to Earth.

Volquez has been viewed as the Reds ace-in-waiting since the Hamilton trade (unless you count Homer Bailey—but let’s face it, who really counts Homer Bailey anymore?) and since the end of the ’08 season, has done nothing but disappoint. If anything, it seems that Volquez is the one that should be babied back to prominence, not Cueto.

Finally, Baker cited Volquez’ mental toughness, saying that even in a situation as daunting as Opening Day, nothing seems to rattle his pitcher.

I beg to differ.

One needn’t mine through the annals of baseball history to find the last time Volquez wilted under pressure. In fact, in Volquez’ most recent start (the 2010 NLDS opener at the Phillies…arguably the biggest game of his career), the National Anthem barely ended before Philly had posted four earned runs on the Reds’ overmatched starter.

Volquez labored through 1.2 innings, looking so confused that no one would be surprised if he STILL was having trouble finding the strike zone. It was that bad.

Clearly Baker isn’t remembering that game. Or, if he’s anything like the rest of Reds nation, maybe he’s still trying to do his best to forget. Either way, to (essentially) imply that Volquez is the Reds’ biggest gamer is just absurd.

It doesn’t take a sabermatrician to see that Volquez folded like a moldy card table in that loss to the Phillies; a victim of hype, nerves and quite possibly a still-weakened throwing arm.

As we sit here today, it is entirely possible that many of Baker’s reasons for crowning Volquez his ace are legit. After all, it’s been widely reported that Bronson Arroyo prefers the middle of the rotation, and who knows, maybe sandwiching Arroyo’s looping curve between the heater/slider combo of Cueto and Volquez will be enough to puzzle the Brewers on Opening Weekend.

However, there’s nothing to suggest that Cueto shouldn’t get the start over Volquez. As much as Cueto earned his three-year deal, he’s earned the respect owed to a future potential ace. And, more importantly, as much as Cueto has been the picture of progress in his three years in the majors, Volquez remains a mystery.

Baker’s last point was that Volquez was honored by the opportunity; that he would relish the chance to prove himself. So, are we supposed to believe that, if asked to cap his big offseason with an Opening Day start and the chance to be the club’s ace, Cueto would say no?

Please.

Come on, Dusty, you’re better than that.

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I have semi-randomly chosen to start with the Reds, and will write a piece about each of the thirty teams, talking about what they’ve done in the offseason up to this point and how that projects for the upcoming season. I know there are moves yet to be made, but with most of the impact moves in the books, I think enough has happened to be able to gauge expectations for the upcoming season. If they make any major moves in the coming days, I’ll amend this article.

I thought it might be fun to begin with the playoff teams from last year, then go on to the teams that finished in the basements of their division before finishing with the most exciting bunch—the teams who were/are/should be on the cusp of contention. So, we begin with Cincinnati.

A lot of people liked the Reds this time last year, myself included, but I think most of us were expecting them to contend for the wild card. The fact that they went on and won the NL Central was exciting for Cincinnatians and for baseball fans looking to witness some new blood in the playoffs. Their speedy defeat in October indicated two things: primarily, they couldn’t hang with the Phillies, as everyone except Kevin Millar seemed to think, and that perhaps the Reds have some work to do if they want to make a run at another playoff appearance.

Rotation: Improved

Their rotation is the part of the team that I thought was most overrated last year. Bronson Arroyo’s value comes mostly from his durability, but also partly from the fact that he can occasionally spin an ERA in the threes. If you look at his FIPs, he’s probably a 4.40 guy, but give him a good offense (and a little luck) and he becomes a 17-game winner. Edinson Volquez is a wildcard. He could strike out more than a batter per inning and will walk a guy about once every two innings. I like Johnny Cueto the best out of the Reds’ top three. He’s cut down on the walks and developed an effective cutter, but it remains to be seen whether he can put it all together for a solid 200+ IP campaign.

The team’s ace-in-waiting will start the season in the bullpen, and we have not seen how well Aroldis Chapman’s excellent stuff will translate to the rotation. I hesitate to crown him his generation’s Randy Johnson just yet. The other two spots in the rotation should go to some combination of Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Travis Wood. Homer Bailey seems to have been around forever, but his 2010 gives reason for optimism as he cut the walks, raised the strikeouts, increased the first-pitch strikes. He’s a hard-throwing groundball pitcher and has the natural ability to be successful in the big leagues. Leake struggled after a phenomenal start to his rookie season. He’s a soft-tosser who needs to keep the ball on the ground. Wood seems to have the best control of the three, and I think he gets a shot at starting unless he falls apart this Spring, if only because the Reds already have two or three lefties in their pen and none in their rotation.

I have to say the Reds rotation will be better in 2011 than it was in 2010, if nothing else, because Aaron Harang’s starts will go to one of three guys who each have the potential to be productive major league pitchers. Cueto, Arroyo, and Volquez combined for an ERA of 3.84 last season, and I would expect the trio to be around there again, maybe closer to 4.00. They will need to combine for more than 464 innings this time around though, otherwise undue strain will be placed on the other three, none of whom will probably be allowed anywhere near 200 IP. I expect a few starts for Chapman somewhere down the line, and I expect him to be good, but his value will primarily come from what he does in relief this season. The Reds will field a competitive rotation but they lack any real ace-caliber pitcher (Chapman excluded for now) and only have one guy I consider a lock for 200 IP.

Bullpen: Declined (slightly)

The Reds’ bullpen ranked in the middle out of all MLB teams in most categories (ERA, strikeouts, walks, HR), but shouldered a heavier workload than 21 of the teams. Their closer is a classic seventh-inning guy. Francisco Cordero (don’t ignore his lucky HR rate in 2009) had the second-lowest K/BB rate of any closer in baseball, and the K’s are falling by the year. Yes, he was decent, but the Reds have better pitchers for their toughest situations.

They have arguably lost their best reliever with Arthur Rhodes jumping ship for Texas, but they expect to be competent against lefty hitters with Chapman and Bill Bray. Matt Maloney is another lefty who will get a chance though he lacks the strikeout ability of Chapman and Bray. Maloney made two solid starts for the Reds in 2010 and it will be useful for them to have as many guys who can start a game on hand as possible. Nick Masset was their most-used reliever and he’s an essential component of their late-inning game plan. He gets tons of grounders and can strike guys out. Jose Arredondo will try to come back from Tommy John surgery and Logan Ondrusek was decent, but the latter benefited from a favorable BABIP-against and the it’s hard to know what to expect from the former. Jordan Smith and Sam LeCure were both solid for the team in 2010.

Assuming Ondrusek’s luck neutralizes, Cordero doesn’t turn in another 2009, and Chapman doesn’t post an ERA of 1.00, I don’t think this bullpen will improve on what it did last year. That said, I don’t see them being that much worse. There is some depth, some talent that will need to prove itself, and at least one guy who will start games someday will be working from the pen.

Catcher: Declined

The same catching team from last year returns in 2011. Ramon Hernandez’s 2010 BABIP was a good 35 points above his previous career-high, so he won’t hit .297 again. If he can stay healthy for more than 100 games for the first time as a Red, he could contribute 12 home runs and a league-average OBP. Considering where he’ll hit in their lineup, however, his batting average is more important than his OBP, and I’m projecting it to be around .260.

Ryan Hannigan does have more walks than strikeouts in his career (even if you get rid of the intentional ones) and he actually saw more pitches in the zone (47.7%) than the average major leaguer. Over a full season, he’d probably produce about what Hernandez could be expected to, but as long as he’s the team’s backup, I cant expect him to influence games as much as their starter does and I think Hernandez declines from his 2010 form. If pressed, I do think Hanigan is the better offensive player.

Corner Infielders: Neutral

Joey Votto and Scott Rolen make for one of the best corner infields in the game and both are coming back in 2011. Rolen is nearing his 36^th birthday and showed he can still hit (.285) and hit for power (20 HR), both of which are about what we should expect this season. Joey Votto deserved his MVP award but his HR/FB rate was 25%, which is insane. I would expect no more than, say, 32 home runs from him. He hit more home runs on the road last year, so I wouldn’t say his power came entirely from Great American Ballpark but there was some luck there. His BABIP was high too, at .361, but it always tends to be around there for him so I am not expecting it to fall precipitously as he plays his age-27 season. Clearly, he is still a tremendous hitter and will be great. In addition his defense is solid and he can steal bases (16 in 2010). Scott Rolen was outstanding in the field last year as usual.

Middle Infielders: Improved

I like Paul Janish better than Orlando Cabrera for several reasons. Firstly, the two showed very similar batting averages (.260 for Janish, .263 for Cabrera) but Janish did a much better job getting on base despite seeing more pitches in the zone. Secondly, Janish has more power, and though neither has much, Janish could potentially hit 10 HR or so if he lasts the whole season. Janish hits the ball in the air while Cabrera is a groundball machine. The Reds will replace a guy who got on base at a clip of just over .300 with a guy who will probably do an average job of it. Janish also comes much cheaper than Cabrera. Edgar Renteria could step in if Janish struggles but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an improvement. Brandon Phillips has more power than most middle infielders, which makes up for his iffy walk rate and steal success rate. If he had better plate discipline, he could be a star, but as it is he should contribute another .270/.330/.440 line or something like that. Because of his OBPs, he looks more like a number six hitter than a leadoff guy to me, so hopefully Drew Stubbs or someone else steps up and takes that role.

The Reds’ middle infield is not outstanding, but should be serviceable. They will probably struggle to hit .280 as a pair, but with the team’s corner infielders hitting for average, that shouldn’t matter. The entire infield is good with the glove.

Outfield: Slightly improved

Jay Bruce’s extension got a lot of press earlier this offseason and he should continue to develop over the coming years. His is the best bat in this outfield and he could make a run at 30 HR but his BABIP might have been a bit on the lucky side last year when he hit .281. Drew Stubbs strikes out too much, but he’s very fast and has good power and would make a good leadoff man if he improved his contact rate. Another 20 HR is very possible from him. Jonny Gomes has tons of power but wont hit above .270 either. He doesn’t know how to hit groundballs, so he is a perfect fit for that ballpark, even if his defense is awful. The same three guys make up the 2011 Reds outfield, and I could see Stubbs getting a little better while Gomes and Bruce do more or less what they did last year. I think the Reds did the right thing bringing these guys back, letting the youth develop, and if it goes as planned, they will build on their success in 2010.

Bench: Neutral

Fred Lewis is the new fourth-outfielder and he should easily out-hit the duo of Chris Dickerson and Jim Edmonds who struggled in 2010. His defensive range is limited but the small outfield in Cincinnati will suit him well. Chris Heisey will also see time in the outfield. As a 25-year-old rookie last year, he hit 8 home runs in about half a season while striking out too much. He’s a much better fielder than Lewis though and should get some playing time for that reason. Laynce Nix wasn’t going to repeat his .291 average from last year, and I probably would have chosen Lewis over him as well. Miguel Cairo brings defensive versatility back to the Reds’ infield for two more seasons, and Edgar Renteria is always capable of a good week at the plate.

I like the Reds’ bench mainly because they have a few guys who have played that role in the past and done it well enough. It’s hard to evaluate benches as they shouldn’t be expected to have enough playing time to really make a huge difference. I wouldn’t want any of their bench players starting for me on a regular basis, but that’s ok. What their bench lacks is pop, but they have every one of their starters spotted in case of injury. The interesting thing here is, if anyone (except their shortstop) gets hurt, the replacement is a pretty big step below talentwise. Therefore, if the Reds lose a regular player for the season, they’re going to be hard-pressed to replace him. Fortunately, theirs is a fairly deep lineup.

Lineup: The Reds’ lineup is arguably the most complete in their division. It lacks major holes, but could stand to improve in some ways. Its heart (Votto, Bruce, Rolen) is especially strong and is supplemented with talent preceding and following it. Like last season, they probably could stand for more production from the first and second spots. These guys sacrifice some genuine on-base skills for better-than-average power, playing to the ballpark they call home. The 2010 Reds hit more home runs than any non-AL East team, and they continue to be a group that lives and dies with the longball. The also strike out a lot and don’t draw walks with the best of them. Playing to their ballpark is not an unwise strategy, but these guys would be so much better with a couple of really good contact hitters in front of Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Drew Stubbs remains the best candidate for leading off, and someone should work with him on drawing walks.

Expected win total: 84–89

I know that may seem kind of low. Last year’s 91-win club should have won 92 according to Bill James’ Pythagorean winning percentage. James’ formula doesn’t take over- or under-achieving players into account though. While I think the pitching is better as a whole, I am counting on it being less productive for them and thus the entire team being slightly worse off. In most cases, I’m expecting the Reds offense to be about as good or better than they were in 2010. The pitching is where I think they slightly overachieved, and I’m not ready to label Bailey or Wood the ace of the future just yet.

Their offense will need to score runs since all of their starters either can be beat or are relatively unproven. There is a lot of talent in that rotation, and the bullpen is competent, but there is no one that a good offense should fear having to face. I remain open to the possibility that a couple of these guys emerge and start winning games for them, and that will make the team that much stronger.

I see no way The Reds possibly regress to their pre-2010 form. They didn’t catch lightning in a bottle in 2010, they developed home-grown talent and it all came together for them. It wont fall apart that easily. The Reds should have no trouble posting a winning record again, but it remains to be seen whether the young guys develop further and how much they do so.

If you agree or disagree with what I’ve said, please let me know and say why. What do you think of the 2011 Cincinnati club?

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The Cincinnati Reds and Joey Votto have agreed to a three-year, $38 million contract. He can still become a free agent after the 2013 season is over.

Votto is the National League Most Valuable Player. In 2010, Votto hit .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI.

You can read about the other Reds moves this offseason, if you click here.

Here is everything you need to know about this deal.

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Cincinnati Reds fans are anxious for the start of the 2011 season. Unfortunately, many of us have been engaged in the NFL and haven’t followed the Reds very closely. There have been a few off-season player transactions to catch up on.

The Reds didn’t make any huge deals like this one or this one but they did do something.

Here are the moves they did make.

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