Kuzul

When Bryce Harper was a prospect, we heard all about how he might one day blossom into one of the elite power hitters in baseball, if not the elite power hitter in baseball.

That hasn’t happened yet. But heading into 2014, the 21-year-old Washington Nationals star is certainly looking the part.

If you haven’t seen it yet, here’s the image that took the Internet by storm last week:

As Nats outfielder Denard Span put it to the Washington Post: “He looks like Brian Urlacher out there playing left field.”

Now, we really shouldn’t lose sight of how Harper has proven himself to be a legitimately well-rounded player. Besides which, a lot of the weight Harper has on now will be coming off as the year goes along. 

Even still, Harper’s elite power potential has always been his calling card. And as of now, I’ll be damned if he doesn’t have the look of a guy on a mission to turn that potential into reality this year by going out there and blasting 35 or 40 bombs. 

At the back of my mind, however, is a thought…

If Harper does indeed boost his power numbers to elite levels this year, is he doomed to also suffer an increase in strikeouts? Thus becoming, you know, a stereotypical power hitter?

I’d call this more of a nagging concern than a serious concern. Strikeouts don’t have the same kind of stigma that they used to, for one, and it is possible to be a high-strikeout guy and a hugely productive hitter. Look at Chris Davis. Or Giancarlo Stanton. Or Ryan Howard back in the day. 

But this is still a discussion worth having because we know strikeouts can hold hitters back. More strikeouts means fewer balls in play, and any hitter putting fewer balls in play is going to have a harder time hitting for average. 

To give you an idea: Of the 24 qualified batters who hit .300 last year, FanGraphs can show that only two (Chris Johnson and Paul Goldschmidt) struck out more than the league average for hitters (19.3 percent). 

The good news is that Harper’s not already a high-strikeout guy. According to FanGraphs, his K% dropped from 20.1 in 2012 to 18.9 last year, a figure better than the league average for hitters.

It’s clear enough from looking at Harper’s plate discipline data that it’s no fluke that he doesn’t have a strikeout problem:

Harper got slightly better at everything, from being more aggressive inside the zone than out to also being better at making contact both in and out of the zone.

This is all encouraging stuff, as it goes to show that Harper’s not just some brute with a vicious swing. He has a remarkably measured approach at the plate for a player his age. He doesn’t fit the description of a guy who’s bound to start striking out a lot.

But at the same time, Harper’s past is only so predictive. It applies to the hitter he’s been, not the hitter he might be in 2014. If he combines added strength, experience and, hopefully, good health, he’s going to be a much more consistent and, indeed, much more dangerous power source.

And that, most likely, would result in him being pitched differently. It’s hard to imagine pitchers being more cautious about going inside the strike zone given that Harper already boasts an alarmingly low 38.0 career Zone%, but there could very well be a change in the diet of pitchers Harper is fed.

If we look into his past for clues, what we find is…Yeah, maybe.

As I’ve noted in a past article, there was a stretch where Harper did look like he had come into his own as a hitter: over the last 49 games of 2012 (including the postseason) and the first 25 games of 2013.

In that 74-game stretch, Hot Harper slashed .320/.382/.665 with 22 home runs. That’s compared to Not-Hot Harper’s .248/.335/.363 slash line in 188 other games.

Here’s where I decided to go all Sherlock Holmes on some data from Brooks Baseball and found this:

Not too much is clear here, but one does notice that Hot Harper saw fewer four-seam fastballs, more changeups and more curveballs. About what you’d expect for a hot hitter, and a sign that, yeah, Harper was being pitched slightly different when he was at his hottest.

Obviously, these changes couldn’t keep Hot Harper from demolishing the ball. That’s in part because he handled the increase in sinkers by hitting them to the tune of a .351 ISO, and the increase in changeups by hitting them to the tune of a .306 ISO.

But the increase in curveballs? Not so much. Hot Harper whiffed on 42.7 percent of the curves he swung at and hit the them to the tune of a .205 average and .114 ISO.

The majority of those were righty curveballs, a pitch I noted in the aforementioned article as one that’s been a particular pain in Harper’s back. Even Hot Harper couldn’t hit them well, whiffing on 38.1 percent of the ones he swung at. He hit just .235 with a .147 ISO on the ones he hit.

Righty curveballs aren’t the only pitch Harper has tended to struggle with. Sliders from lefty pitchers also give Harper fits, and Hot Harper didn’t solve that problem either. He hit only hit .250 with one extra-base hit against lefty sliders, whiffing on 52.2 of the ones he swung at.

Pitchers are smart. So are pitching coaches. The hotter Harper gets in 2014, the more willing they’re going to be to devise more cautious game plans and dig deeper into the scouting reports for anything they can use.

Based on his whole case history and what happened even when he was at his hottest, the safe bet is that Harper will start being fed a more steady diet of breaking balls if he does end up turning his power to 11 in 2014. This alone could keep him from advancing forward in the strikeout department.

But there’s another thing that has to be noted: When Harper was at his best, he coincidentally wasn’t facing much left-handed pitching.

It’s like this:

If Harper does become an elite power hitter in 2014, he’s presumably not going to get to feast on as much right-handed pitching as Hot Harper did. If the numbers don’t level out on their own, they’ll surely get a boost from managers being more proactive in using their best lefty relievers against Harper.

Having to face more left-handed pitching is yet another thing that could block Harper from keeping his strikeouts down. As do most lefty hitters, Harper just doesn’t see lefties as well as he sees righties.

Via FanGraphs:

So the potential for more matchups against left-handed pitchers? Yeah, not quite ideal.

And this brings us, I suppose, to the bottom line.

Based on both his natural talent and his impressive physical prowess, I do think it’s possible that Harper can bloom into a 35-40 home run guy in 2014. But based on the things we just looked at, I think it’s probable that the trade-off for more power would indeed be more strikeouts. Harper has proven enough in the plate-discipline department, but one is skeptical about what will happen if he faces an increased diet of breaking stuff and matchups against lefty pitchers.

The bright side is that it’s all relative. Since Harper’s a relatively low-strikeout guy now, him becoming a high-strikeout guy would very likely entail his K% going slightly over 20 percent rather than closer to 30 percent with the Pedro Alvarezes and Adam Dunns of the world. Though strikeouts could well become a bigger part of Harper’s game, it’s hard to see them becoming a problem to a point where they’re totally ruining his other numbers.

And if those other numbers are there…Well, we’re probably not even going to notice the strikeouts.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise/linked.

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Had the first two years of Bryce Harper‘s career happened in, say, 2010 and 2011, we undoubtedly would have celebrated the young Washington Nationals slugger as the great young player in MLB. 

But noooooooo. Harper just had to come along right when Mike Trout did in 2012. And ever since then, the Los Angeles Angels superstar has come to be like one of the mother ships from Independence Day: a big, powerful force with a shadow that covers all.

In that shadow are all the other great young players in MLB, including Harper. Both FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference.com WAR have Trout down as more than twice as valuable as Harper over the last two seasons.

And as much as we all love to argue about the validity of WAR, well, it is kinda hard to argue with its perspective on the Trout-Harper power struggle (’tis a silly thing…) that fans and media have created (…and it’s all of our fault).

Now, OK, sure. If it’s a question of national media attention, there’s where Harper is not as much in Trout’s shadow. He generates just as much buzz, if not more. But let’s not mistake that to mean Harper is celebrated like Trout is. Trout’s buzz largely concerns how great he is. Harper’s still mainly focuses on how great he might be.

The question we’re after is whether Harper might be able to change that. Is there anything he can do to become just as celebrated, if not more so, than his de-facto twin brother?

You know what kind of question that is, bro. Of course there is.

Now, if Harper’s going to become a more celebrated player than Trout, he’s probably not going to do it by becoming a better all-around player. At least he’s not as measured by WAR, as there are some things working against Harper on that front.

The first is that Harper can’t match Trout’s speed on the basepaths. I could throw some numbers at you to solidify this point, but…meh. You’ve seen Trout run the bases. You know how he rolls (or runs).

The other is that Trout’s a center fielder and Harper’s a left fielder, which is a disadvantage no matter how well Harper plays in the field. 

Courtesy of FanGraphs‘ positional adjustments, we know that the corner outfield spots are far from being on center field’s level in terms of importance. A player can be excellent in left field but still only as valuable as a player who provides merely average defense in center field.

But then, who says that Harper has to be as good as Trout in order to be more celebrated? He could always take the Miguel Cabrera route—let’s call it “The Miggy Effect”—and that’s a matter of doing two things that are easily within Harper’s reach:

Hit like crazy and win like crazy.

To the first point, the signs are already there that Harper is getting better as a hitter. Here are a few “numberific” numbers from FanGraphs:

From 2012 to 2013, Harper got better at (from left to right) keeping his swings confined to the zone, making contact, drawing walks, avoiding strikeouts, getting the ball in the air, getting fly balls to get over the fence, hitting for power and, generally, hitting.

The best way to become a lethal hitter is through patience and power. That Harper improved on both fronts in 2013 is encouraging. And indeed, it’s doubly encouraging that he was able to do it while playing last season at less than 100 percent healthy.

What’s a healthy Harper’s offensive potential? Maybe something along the lines of what he did down the stretch in 2012 and what he was doing in 2013 before his health woes began to pile up. Here’s a telling table recycled from a 2014 preview that I recently did for Harper:

Harper closed 2012 on an absolute tear and kept right on going at the outset of 2013 before the injuries came. And while it’s doubtful that he would have held that slash line and continued on that power pace, the power he was showing off is in line with what was expected of him back in his prospect days.

“People have not seen that kind of power,” Jim Callis of Baseball America told MASNSports.com, per Byron Kerr, in 2012.

“You have a 20 to 80 power scale and his power is probably an 85. I don’t know how Harper isn’t considered the best power-hitting prospect in draft history and maybe, baseball history. When you look at what he has done at his age, I don’t know that anybody has ever done those kind of things.”

Harper hasn’t broken out with a 30- or 40-homer season yet. But given the potential he came into the league with and the way in which he’s occasionally flashed that potential, it’s just a matter of time.

So there’s that. And given the improvements Harper showed from 2012 to 2013 and how hard he was to get out when he was healthy and locked in both years, it’s not crazy to picture him as a guy who could also maintain an average in the .300s and an on-base percentage in the .400s.

If Harper does that, he’ll take his place as one of the game’s elite hitters. Potentially he’ll be ahead of Trout, and that alone could be good enough to trigger “The Miggy Effect.”

Trout would still be the better all-around player, but fans and media could care more about Harper being the better hitter. Just like with they do with Cabrera now (he said, trying not to sound pompous while keenly aware that he sounds pompous).

However, there’s also more to The Miggy Effect than that. People don’t favor Cabrera over Trout just because he’s a great hitter. It helps that he’s a tremendous hitter on a winning team. As great as Trout is, it just looks good that Cabrera’s bat is the key ingredient in the Detroit Tigers’ winning ways.

Harper’s the right kind of player in the right place at the right time to be the National League answer to Cabrera. He certainly has the bat, and he has the talent around him on the Nationals roster.

It’s not for lack of talent that the Nats didn’t build on their 98-win 2012 last year, and it won’t be for lack of talent if they disappoint again this year.

With Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche and Anthony Rendon around Harper in the lineup, the Nats have a dangerous offense. With Doug Fister joining Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, they have arguably the best starting rotation in MLB.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA-based projections currently have the Nats down for 88 wins in 2014. It may not sound like much, but the only team in the National League projected to win more games is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Given enough lucky bounces, it’s a safe bet the Nationals could be a 95-win team in 2014.

And the window isn’t in danger of closing if the Nats don’t get it done this year. They’re not without old parts, but they’re constructed largely around a young core. To boot, their long-term financial future is far from messy. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they have no more than $50 million in salaries committed in any year after 2015.

That makes them look mighty good compared to Trout’s Angels. Their prospects of contending in 2014 hinge largely on seemingly over-the-hill veterans in Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, and the club’s future is clouded by their rich long-term contracts and a dearth of talent in the minors. Even with Trout, the Angels making the playoffs on a regular basis won’t be easy.

Not as easy as it should be for Harper’s Nationals, anyway—especially if he blooms as a hitter. The more he hits, the more he’ll be celebrated. And the more his hits help the Nats win, the more us observers will forget that he was ever in Trout’s shadow.

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Allow me to tell you about one thing I’m not sure of and two things I am sure of.

The thing I’m not sure of: whether Bryce Harper will be my pick for the 2014 National League MVP. It’s still early for such things.

As for the two things I am sure of:

1. I did last year.
2. Harper certainly has MVP potential.

In 2012, the young Washington Nationals slugger won NL Rookie of the Year on the strength of a .270/.340/.477 line and 22 homers in 139 games. All at the tender age of 19. Harper actually got better at the plate in 2013, batting .274/.368/.486 with 20 home runs in 118 games. With an rWAR of 9.0, he’s one of the all-time great WAR heroes through the age of 20.

So yeah, it’s kinda scary that we can look at Harper and say with a straight face, “Hmmm…when do you think his breakout is coming?” He’s already accomplished a lot, but, well, people like you and I tend to expect more from a guy who appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a 16-year-old.

Perhaps Harper’s big, MVP-sized breakout will come this year. If it does, it will be because several things happened.

Thing 1: He Stayed Healthy

Remember when Harper came out of the 2012 All-Star break and managed just a .501 OPS over 32 games? It looked then like the league was figuring him out. 

But then this happened:

*That includes the 2012 postseason.

Around the middle of August in 2012, something clicked. Harper was on a tear down the stretch in 2012 and didn’t let up at the outset of 2013. He had been built up as a future superstar, and it looked like the superstar had arrived.

I put the cutoff for 2013 at 25 games, however, because it was in Harper’s 26th game that he crashed into an outfield fence in Atlanta. Shortly after that, this happened at Dodger Stadium:

Harper was dinged up after the first collision. He was dinged up even more after the second collision, eventually going on the disabled list in late May with a bad left knee.

That was pretty much the end of what once looked like a possible MVP season. Harper managed a modest .789 OPS after he returned from the DL in July, and by September he admitted that he had been playing hurt the whole time.

Harper eventually went in for knee surgery after the season was over. And judging from what he had to say at NatsFest, what he went through in 2013 forced him to put things in perspective. According to Sarah Kogod of The Washington Post, Harper’s looking to be a “little bit smarter” in 2014.

“I don’t want to run into another wall,” he said. “That killed me for the whole season. Having 15 stitches and having my knee all messed up and things like that, I don’t wanna do.”

I’ll take a wild guess and say that Harper is partially motivated by the fact that being hurt sucks. But I’m also guessing that he can see just as clearly as the rest of us how dangerous he was getting to be. Before his injuries intervened, his talent was leading the way.

Assuming that talent is still in there somewhere, it stands to reason that good health alone could be a huge factor in Harper putting up big numbers in 2014. But if he ends up with MVP-caliber numbers, it will probably be because he improved in other areas as well.

Such as…

Thing 2: He Showed Off Even More Opposite-Field Power

Harper has pull power and power up the middle taken care of. According to FanGraphs, 34 of his 42 career homers have either gone out to right field or center field.

But don’t sleep on Harper’s opposite-field power. Eight homers the other way is pretty good for a guy who’s only through his age-20 season, and what’s there is already on the right track.

Here are the splits:

It’s good that Harper hit more balls in the air the other way. It’s even better that he wasn’t wasting his time with those, as his HR/FB rate to left field also rose. In the end, these dingers were a major contribution to a much-improved .247 Isolated Power to the opposite field.

It’s not a fluke that this happened. Oppo power is one of those things that tends to come with experience, but increased strength also helps. We know that Harper had that in 2013, as he reported to spring training 20 pounds heavier than his playing weight in 2012.

Another year, same old story. Harper said in early January, via Anna McDonald of ESPN.com, that he was looking to come into spring training at around 240 or 245 pounds. He would lose a lot of that weight throughout the season but would still likely end up bigger than he had been in 2013.

More weight can only help Harper’s power, and one of the telltale signs that it did would be even more power the other way in 2014.

Another thing to watch is…

Thing 3: He Mastered Right-Handed Curveballs

Harper owns a .905 OPS over 734 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. He’s not exactly out of his depth against them.

A big reason why is because he handles pretty much everything righties can throw at him. Per Brooks Baseball, it’s like this:

Those are some impressive numbers. I like the cutter numbers in particular, though I can’t say they surprise me given what we know about Ron Harper’s cutter per this tweet from Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.

But maybe you noticed the key omission from that table: Where are the curveballs?

Yeah…about that. I figure it’s best to just show you this:

Harper hasn’t been completely baffled by right-handed curveballs but hasn’t quite figured them out yet either. It’s particularly discouraging that the progress he made in 2013 wasn’t worth all that much. He made more contact against righty hooks, but not good contact. That’s a pretty high ground-ball rate.

Now, sure, one thing about the 2013 data is that it’s heavily influenced by Harper’s nearly year-long struggle with injuries. In his first 25 games, he had three hits against righty curveballs and was generally looking better against them than he had been in 2012. Had he stayed healthy, who knows?

All the same, I’m guessing the book on Harper for righties recommends curveballs when appropriate. He should expect righties to be comfortable going to their hooks until he proves he can hit them.

If he does, then he’ll have right-handers pretty well covered. But if he’s going to be truly unstoppable…

Thing 4: He Hit Lefties

It’s hard enough for a lefty-hitting veteran with 10 years of experience to hit left-handed pitching. We really shouldn’t be surprised that Harper, a 21-year-old with two years of experience, hasn’t mastered lefty pitching.

The good news, however, is that this is yet another area where Harper made some strides in 2013:

You can look at that average and that ISO and say that Harper regressed against lefties last year. But it’s a good sign that his on-base percentage against them went up, and it’s also good that his walks went up and his strikeouts went down. If we make things simple, that says he was seeing lefties better.

Where it gets even better is that Harper actually managed most lefty pitches pretty well. According to Brooks Baseball, he hit .307 with a .160 ISO against the hard stuff. He was passable against curves with a .214 average and .143 ISO. He hit only .154 with no extra-base hits against offspeed pitches, but that’s not too big of a concern given that lefty pitchers don’t throw many changeups to lefty hitters.

Against sliders, however…well, you better take a look at this:

If we take a look at Brooks Baseball, we can see that these sliders tended to end up in the same place in 2013. About where you’d expect: low and away.

TexasLeaguers.com can show that Harper often obliged by swinging the bat:

This is yet another area where it’s hard to begrudge the guy. Any lefty hurler with a good slider knows he can make the lefty hitter at the plate look silly if he spins one away from him. Harper’s no different.

But still, he needs to be better than he’s been at picking these sliders up and laying off them. Easier said than done, to be sure, but he ought to have a pretty good idea when they’re coming in 2014. Like with the righty curveballs, he should know from experience what the book on him must say.

All in all, I’d say that Harper’s chances of having an MVP-caliber season will be good enough if he just manages to stay healthy in 2014. I mean, shoot, we all saw what he was doing before he got hurt. He had turned into a monster.

But if Harper stays healthy and hits for more oppo power and solves righty curveballs and handles lefties better, he’ll be a lot worse than a monster.

He’ll be a destroyer of worlds. 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Through the first two seasons of Bryce Harper‘s career, he’s shown prodigious power at a young age. If his offseason plan comes to fruition, he’ll be bigger and stronger than ever in 2014.

According to Anna McDonald of ESPN, Bryce Harper is looking to bulk up this winter after finishing the 2013 season at 218 pounds. The 21-year-old prodigy isn’t just looking to put on a little weight, he’s looking to transform his body in preparation for the rigors of a long, grinding season. 

“I’m excited to take a month off, that’s something I’m excited for, let the body rest,” Harper said. “Let the body heal a little bit and get as big as a house. That’s the biggest thing I try to do.”

“As big as a house” is a phrase that might already be in production for a line of clothing in Washington, D.C for the upcoming season. While the notion might seem crazy for a young athlete like Harper, he seems to have a goal in mind.

“I want to go into spring training about 240, 245,” said Harper. “I’ll lose about 20 pounds during the season.”

According to Harper’s Baseball-Reference page, he’s listed at 230 pounds. If he shows up to spring training 10-15 pounds heavier, concerns about its effect on his game will become a narrative for the media to talk about. Speed, range in the outfield and injury risk due to more weight will become part of the conversation around Harper.

Of course, so will the added bulk changing his strength profile at the plate. If Harper does succeed in his goal, he’ll likely be stronger throughout the rigors of the season. Even if he loses the weight by midseason or September, he’ll still be bigger than he was when the 2013 season ended. 

Bryce Harper has proven to be an awfully powerful hitter during his short time in the major leagues. Over the first 257 games of his career, Harper has slugged 42 home runs, while posting a .481 slugging percentage. 

Those figures may not be close to as prolific as Barry Bonds or Mark McGwire in their respective primes, but when comparing Harper with every 19- and 20-year-old hitter in the history of baseball, his place in the record book stands out.  

Harper isn’t just powerful, he blasted more home runs through his age-20 season than all but two hitters, Mel Ott and Tony Conigliaro, in the history of the sport. While that is an impressive feat without context, the names below him on that list make it stand out even more. Alex Rodriguez, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mickey Mantle began some of the most prolific careers in baseball history by producing fewer home runs than Bryce Harper.

Now, heading into his age-21 season, Harper is poised to become bigger and possibly stronger. It remains to be seen if it will lead to more home runs, but the natural progression of power hitters typically leads to more power as the years go on. 

Legendary baseball writer Peter Gammons agrees with that notion. Recently, before the news of Harper’s weight gain became public knowledge, Gammons listed Harper among five players with the potential to approach a “near-historic” level in 2014. Per the column on Gammons Daily: “His OPS still rose from .817 to .854 despite the injuries, we have seen his prodigious power, his hitting skills, his edgy fire and his wont to be great.”

As Gammons noted, Harper’s .854 OPS, factoring in his excellent plate discipline, was an improvement over his age-19 season. While the home run totals are staggering, so is Harper’s place among the best adjusted OPS marks for young hitters in history. Through his age-20 season, the Nationals star owns the sixth-best OPS+ (125) in history (subscription required for link). Among the names below him on that list: Ken Griffey Jr. and Al Kaline. 

Yes, Harper’s OPS, despite the weight loss at the end of last season, rose from 2012 to 2013. As the former No. 1 overall pick moves into his third year and age-21 season, predicting a rise to 30 or 35 home runs wouldn’t be outlandish.  

Now, Harper’s ascension to the top of the power-hitting charts may begin even more quickly than expected. 

Bryce Harper’s desire to be great, evident to any baseball fan who has followed his path from Sports Illustrated cover boy at the age of 16 to top draft pick to his ascension through the minor leagues to stardom in Washington, is almost surely the driving force behind this offseason’s weight-management tactic. 

Take a look at the following home run hit by Harper in a late-September game this past season. If he’s feeling weaker than usual, it certainly doesn’t show. By blasting a low pitch deep into the right-center field seats, Harper showed the type of easy, natural power that has been present in his swing since video of his amateur exploits first hit the Internet.  

Naturally, without the aid of more bulk, Bryce Harper has the ability to be one of the best power-hitting stars in baseball. 

With some added heft, the National League could be in big trouble during the 2014 season.

Will Harper become one of the best sluggers in baseball in 2014?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball. 

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Washington Nationals phenom Bryce Harper is already a pretty big guy at 6’2” and 230 pounds, but it appears that he just isn’t satisfied.

According to Bill Baer from HardballTalk.com, Harper wants to get “as big as a house” before the start of spring training.  

I’m not a doctor or anything, but I’m pretty sure that’s going to be hard to do.

With 42 home runs over his first two years, Harper appears to want to add weight in order to add some pop to his bat. Houston Astros strength and conditioning coach Jake Beiting will lead the charge to help Harper beef up, as it seems that the star outfielder is planning on sacrificing speed for power in 2014.

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The relationship between former Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson and outfielder Bryce Harper was highly scrutinized by the media this past season.

Harper was expected to play a major role in the team’s quest for a World Series title this year following Washington’s disappointing loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series in 2012.

However, the Nats’ highly anticipated 2013 season never came together as expected, as the team dealt with injuries to key players such as Harper and struggled to remain relevant in the playoff race until basically the final month of the regular season.

Because Harper was expected to be the driving force behind the team’s success this year, a big deal was made about the 21-year-old’s all-out style of play and inability to stay healthy. As a result, the relationship between Johnson and the promising outfielder became increasingly strained.

While there had always been concern about Harper’s playing style dating back to his arrival in the major leagues on April 4, 2012, it was never an issue until the outfielder ran face first into the outfield wall during a game at Dodger Stadium on May 13.

On May 26, Harper landed on the disabled list with left knee bursitis.

A little over a month later, Johnson and Harper engaged in a public disagreement after the outfielder expressed pause about beginning his rehab assignment ahead of schedule.

Johnson didn’t take kindly to Harper’s personal assessment of his own progress and potential return from the disabled list, per The Associated Press (via Sports Illustrated):

“I’ll have a conversation with him about that,” Johnson said. “When a player starts playing, it’s really up to me, what I think they need. Not up to the player. I’m always trying to do what’s best for the player. But at the same time, it’s my job to know when they’re ready and when they’re not.”

After missing 31 games on the disabled list, Harper made his return to the lineup on July 1 and, in classic Harper fashion, launched a home run in his first at-bat. However, after going 0-for-18 over the next four games, Johnson was considering resting the outfielder for an entire weekend series against the San Diego Padres.

Harper, of course, wasn’t interested in riding the pine and ultimately sent a text message to Johnson telling the Nats skipper to either “play me or trade me,” according to CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman.

Johnson was quick to defuse the situation and kept his response short, saying only, “He came in and we had a nice chat. As far as I’m concerned, he’s good to go.”

While Johnson’s attempts at managing Harper’s intensity over the last two seasons was admirable, the organization hopes that newly appointed manager Matt Williams will bring out the best in the 21-year-old.

In 2012, Harper was named the National League Rookie of the Year after batting .270/.340/.477 with 98 runs scored, 57 extra-base hits (22 home runs), 59 RBI and 18 stolen bases in 139 games. More significantly, the then-19-year-old played a vital role in the club’s 98-win campaign and playoff berth as NL East champions.

This season, Harper was limited to only 118 games due to injury and never posted the superstar-like numbers that everyone expected. That being said, it’s not as though his sophomore campaign was a failure by any means. Harper was still productive when in the lineup, batting .274/.368/.486 with 20 home runs and 58 RBI in 497 plate appearances.

However, the ball is now in Williams’ court in terms of furthering Harper’s physical and mental development during the 2014 season and beyond.

Though Williams lacks experience in the role, the first-time manager is confident that he can help the two-time All-Star maximize his potential and become an elite player.

In his introductory press conference last Friday, Williams discussed what it means to have Harper on his team as well as his plans for the outfielder moving forward, via Nats Insider:

“I’m here to help him,” Williams said. “I’m here to help him become the MVP and a Hall of Fame player. I want that for him. I want him to be that guy. I want him to be our leader. I want him to be the star that everybody wants him to be.”

…

“You just have to understand it, and that’s my job: to understand what Bryce does, understand the microscope he’s under,” Williams said. “It’s not easy being Bryce Harper. Who wouldn’t want to be Bryce? But it’s not easy. I understand that side of it for him.”

In general, Williams was highly complimentary of the 21-year-old’s approach to the game and overall demeanor:

“I love it, I love the way he plays the game. He plays the game the way it should be played,” Williams said. “He is all-out, every day, all the time, every game. He’s paid for it by getting injured and running into walls.”

Williams has no intentions of taming Harper or forcing him to become something he’s not. Instead, he wants to create an environment that will be conducive to the outfielder’s emergence as one of the sport’s best players, if not the best player:

“Now can we be a little smarter sometimes? Sure. And not necessarily run into that wall? Of course,” he said. “But the kid’s 21 years old. Let him go – this is a stallion. This is a guy that is ready to just explode. We’re going to try to give him the game plan to do that.”

While Williams’ handling of Harper next season will be endlessly dissected by the media as it was under Davey Johnson’s watch in each of the past two years, the Nats’ new skipper is already embracing the challenge.

Though time will dictate whether the change in leadership ultimately fosters Harper’s development as a superstar, it’s certainly encouraging that Williams is saying all the right things and seemingly eager to impart his wisdom. 

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Bryce Harper is already one of MLB‘s best all-around outfielders, but it often seems that we overlook the uniqueness of his rapid rise.

Remember, the Washington Nationals centerpiece hasn’t even turned 21 yet!

Matt Snyder of CBS Sports notes that Harper and Tony Conigliaro stand alone in league history with multiple seasons of 20-plus home runs at such an early age. That feat is even more impressive when you consider that the All-Star has been enduring through injury for most of 2013, according to CSNWashington.com’s Mark Zuckerman (h/t NBC Sports).

You can generate all sorts of jaw-dropping stats about Harper when comparing him to others who were rushed to the majors as teenagers. Success isn’t supposed to come so easily when some of your competition has twice as much lifetime baseball experience.

Taking age out of the equation, Baseball-Reference.com tells us that this phenom is:

• Among 111 players in history to play full-time during his first two seasons (min. 1,000 PA) and post an on-base percentage of at least .350.

• Slugging above .500 this season with more than 100 games played, which puts him on this 24-man list.

• One of five guys with 20-plus home runs and 10-plus stolen bases as both a rookie and second-year player.

Most players associated with Harper via the above indexes spent more time than he did in the minor leagues, extra years at the collegiate level or both.

Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer is convinced that Harper will dominate the sport in 2014. He ranks 27th in the B/R MLB 500 thanks to his advanced plate discipline and power to all fields.

Harper can blame Mike Trout—who’s No. 1 on Rymer’s list—for raising the bar so high and distorting our expectations. Much like in 2012, Trout is a serious American League MVP candidate, wowing us with his production in both sabermetric and traditional statistical categories. He’s undoubtedly better than Harper at this point, utilizing his athleticism more effectively in the field and on the basepaths without compromising his durability.

However, it isn’t fair to do a straight comparison.

Both were technically “rookies” last season, but Trout had a head start. The Los Angeles Angels recalled their top prospect in July 2011, and he failed to establish himself. He posted a weak .220/.281/.390 batting line in irregular playing time, and due to that ineffectiveness, he ended up a few at-bats shy of exhausting his rookie eligibility.

Moreover, Harper is still striving to justify the hype he received from Sports Illustrated in 2009. The magazine draped him across the cover, with Tom Verducci dubbing him “baseball’s chosen one” and making comparisons to the NBA’s LeBron James (at that time already a five-time All-Star and league MVP).

Far too many baseball enthusiasts unfairly condemn Harper because he hasn’t yet realized that extraordinary potential:

Harper=Most overrated player in the league

— David Baker (@babybluebaker) July 22, 2013

Is there an athlete more overrated than Bryce Harper? Potential? Yes. But not even a star player at this point

— Steve Osherow (@SteveOsherow) August 22, 2013

in all seriousness bryce harper could be the most overrated MLB in the game!

— matt da cat maher (@MattDaCat10) September 17, 2013

However, few players have excelled at age 19 like Harper did. Even fewer have overcome their opposition’s adjustments as 20-year-old MLB sophomores to perform at a higher level.

Today’s baseball fan is spoiled with dynamic, young stars: Trout, Yasiel Puig, Manny Machado, Jose Fernandez, Wil Myers and more. Harper has the same sky-high ceiling as them all, plus a later birth date.

Indeed, he is sorely underappreciated.

Follow @MrElyminator

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Washington Nationals prodigious left fielder Bryce Harper aggravated a hip injury before Saturday’s 9-2 road victory over the Miami Marlins.

Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post broke the news, noting that it occurred while Harper was hitting:

Bryce Harper flying back to DC for tests on hip, Davey says. Aggravated before game hitting.

— Adam Kilgore (@AdamKilgoreWP) September 8, 2013

Harper has been hampered for about a week with the strained left hip. The 20-year-old was scratched from the lineup by manager Davey Johnson just moments before the first pitch at Marlins Park, according to a report by Kilgore earlier in the evening.

Tyler Moore filled in for Harper and performed admirably, recording two hits in five at-bats and scoring once while also logging two RBI.

As Kilgore notes in the report, Harper has been battling injuries since late April, which makes the fact that he made his second consecutive All-Star team all the more impressive—though his popularity helped him in that regard.

Credit the young Harper for sticking it out amid a down 2013 season for the Nationals, who sit 13 games behind the National League East division-leading Atlanta Braves.

For the year, Harper is hitting .273 with 19 home runs and 49 RBI, but this latest ailment seems to be impacting his play on the diamond in a negative way. He only has two hits in 12 at-bats in the month of September thus far.

After Harper was not in the lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, he persuaded Johnson to plug him in on Friday against the Marlins.

There isn’t much incentive for Harper to rush back to the field, but Harper has bucked that type of reasoning and fought through pain all season.

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The Washington Nationals are infamous for protecting Stephen Strasburg during the 2012 season, setting an innings limit on him.

While they were careful with Strasburg, it seems the opposite is true for their young offensive star, Bryce Harper.

According to Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider, Harper is less than 100 percent healthy:

Harper took awkward swings, he labored to get down the first-base line and he gingerly took his position in the field between innings.

In the middle of the third inning, shortly after Harper limped down the line on a groundout to second base, Jayson Werth brought his teammate’s cap and glove out to the field for him. Werth, though, withheld Harper’s equipment for several seconds, appearing to seek some confirmation first that Harper felt well enough to continue playing.

Zuckerman goes on to say that Harper is dealing with a hip injury, an injury that manager Davey Johnson only found out about on Monday.

“I was a little disturbed that I wasn’t informed that he was having some treatment on his hip,” Johnson said. “But every time anybody talks to Harp, he says: ‘I’m fine, I’m fine, I’m fine.’ So I’m going to stick with him.”

With the Nationals currently sitting 15 games out in the NL East and 7.5 games back in the wild card, is it time for the Nationals to protect Harper from himself?

The Rest of the Schedule

There’s no hope of the Nationals catching the Braves in the division, but there is a small sliver of hope in the NL Wild Card.

However, they still have to jump over both the Diamondbacks and the Reds to get that second spot.

While they are 9-4 in their last 13, only two of those wins came against a playoff contender (Royals). Six of the other seven wins came against the Cubs and Marlins.

Recently, the Nationals have lost three of their last four, including two of three to the Mets.

I’m not going to count out the Nationals, but their chances of making the playoffs are at 2.6 percent, according to ESPN’s playoff odds. Of course, the Reds could have a Red Sox- or Braves-like collapse through the last month, but I don’t see that happening with their schedule.

Because of that, it’s important for the Nationals to be thinking about the future as it concerns Harper.

Big Picture

Last week I wrote about how Harper’s agent Scott Boras is looking for a 12-year contract for his young stud. While I think 12-year contracts are a mistake regardless, it’s even more so if there are injury concerns.

I understand Harper is only in his second year in the big leagues and he’s young. Most likely, he’ll recover to full health.

However, now is when he can hurt himself even more. When a player is playing through pain, that’s when they’re more likely to hurt themselves even more. And if Harper hurts himself worse, that will take him off the field for a part of next year when the Nationals expect to contend again.

Harper should be applauded for wanting to play through the pain, but he also has to realize he is the face of the franchise. There’s no problem with taking risks, but there’s a difference in good risks and bad risks.

When your team is basically out of the playoffs and you’re playing through an injury, that’s a bad risk. 

I’m not saying put Harper on the disabled list, but the Nationals need to protect Harper from himself. There is no reason he should be on the field if he’s hurting. He’s too valuable to the franchise.

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The Washington Nationals are surging and will enter September in contention for a playoff spot. Entering the final day of August, the Nationals are 16-10 in the month, which has given them a reason to play meaningful baseball in September.

The pieces of the puzzle have been coming together for Washington. Perhaps they were not able to handle the early season hype that surrounded the team, but, as for now, they have a chance for redemption.

Going forward however, it is imperative that they have some of their most important pieces go far and beyond what they are capable of. If they do this, and get a little bit of luck, the Nats might once again be playing in October.

Let’s take a look at the keys to the Nationals’ success going forward.

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