Tag: Bryce Harper

Washington Nationals: Not Too Early to Give Bryce Harper MVP Consideration

Since 2009, when he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated at the ripe age of 16, Bryce Harper has faced a flurry of doubters and unrealistic expectations.

He made his major league debut in April 2012, after a little over a year of minor league action, and was immediately inserted into the Nationals‘ starting lineup.

Prior to the start of 2015—after three MLB seasons—Harper was already labeled a bust by some, even though his numbers weren’t half bad. He hit at least .270 in each of his first three seasons, but he wasn’t producing at Mike Trout’s level, so he was somehow a “disappointment.”

It’s easy to forget he is only 22 years old and that most professional baseball players his age are still shelved in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Through 41 games in 2015, Harper has certainly silenced his many critics.

He started the year with a bang by hitting a home run on Opening Day off Bartolo Colon, and then put together a solid April that consisted of a decent batting average, plenty of doubles and RBI and a ton of walks.

But then he took it to another level on May 6. That day, he hit three home runs against the Marlins. Then he hit two the very next game and followed that up with a homer in the next game for a total of six blasts in three games.

Since that three-homer performance, Harper has put together an out-of-this-world .535/.630/1.349 slash line. He has been red hot since the calendar flipped over to May, and he has been a pivotal part of the Nationals’ recent surge, which has them in first place in the National League East.

Not only is Harper a tremendous hitter, he is also incredibly fun to watch because you know he can make anything happen at any time with his violent swing. Will Leitch of Sports on Earth recently wrote an article comparing Harper to Babe Ruth, and one line really stuck out:

“He is the most exciting, dominant hitter in the sport,” Leitch writes. “When I watch him hit, I fully expect every pitch he swings at to end up on the moon. Its amazing to watch. And Ruth did this for 22 years.”

So he is ridiculously in the zone right now, but is he a legitimate MVP candidate?

At this point, it would be crazy to say no. He leads the league in home runs, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases. He also ranks first in wOBA, wRC+ and WAR, per FanGraphs.

Other clubs are catching on, too. Harper has been intentionally walked five times so far this season, which is tied with Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday for the most in the NL.

Those numbers scream MVP, but it seems impossible that he can sustain this madness, right? 

According to Matthew Kory of Vice Sports, if Harper continues to hit like he has hit since May 6, he will have 113 homers by season’s end. While that number is certainly a testament to how awesome Harper has been over that time, there is no way he is going to get close to reaching that number of big flies—he will likely not even reach 50.

Grant Paulsen had some high praise recently for Harper on 106.7 The Fan (via Chris Lingebach of CBS DC):

Right now, he’s the MVP in the National League. And one step further, he’s the best player in Major League Baseball this season. Period. 

What we’re seeing now, this is who this guy can be. And no one else on this team can be this guy for a stretch of a few weeks. No one else in this division—except for maybe one or two guys, like Giancarlo Stanton—can really be the guy that he’s been. You can count on one hand the number in Major League Baseball that can have a month, and a couple of weeks—a sample—the likes of which what Bryce Harper has.

Wow, Paulsen is obviously a big fan of the star that people have called “cocky” and “polarizing.” But he is absolutely right; Harper can do things on the field few others can.

Back to the MVP discussion. The voters look for a few things when voting: personal stats for that season, track record for that individual, how well-rounded the player is and the success of the team.

Harper has three of those right now. He certainly has the stats, as of right now, to win baseball’s most coveted award; he has three other productive seasons under his belt; and he is the most important player on a Washington team that will undoubtedly finish the season with one of the best records in MLB. 

Harper has also made strides with his defense. James Wagner of the Washington Post outlined this improvement in a recent article. Harper is tied for the most defensive runs saved among right fielders, and he is getting more comfortable in right field after playing mostly left field the past two seasons.

We will have to wait and see how Harper does for the rest of the season. He obviously cannot maintain this epic pace, but can he finish with 35 or more home runs, a solid batting average and above-average work in the outfield? I think so.

Harper has always been a true five-tool player, and those skills are finally coming to fruition in his fourth year in The Show. It is impossible to predict what the MVP voters will do—Trout should have won the award in 2013—but to this point, Harper must be the front-runner in the National League.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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Bryce Harper Must Be At-All-Cost Pursuit as Yankees’ Future Iconic Centerpiece

Officially, the New York Yankees will be in the capital over the next two days for a two-game series against the Washington Nationals.

But they can also do some window shopping while they’re there, with one particular item at the top of their wish list: Bryce Harper. It’ll likely be a while before the Yankees actually have a shot at him, but this is their chance to at least imagine how great he would look in pinstripes.

The first and only time the Yankees got an up-close look at Washington’s young right fielder before this week was back in June of 2012. He was just a 19-year-old pup at the time and was basically still a prospect with only 40-odd major league games under his belt.

Harper’s going to look a little different this time around. He’s now older and wiser at 22, and these days he’s the game’s most dominant player.

In the last two weeks, Harper has turned into the Human Torch. He’s batting an absurd .564 with a 2.038 OPS in his last 11 games, with nine home runs, 18 runs scored and 22 RBI to boot.

Overall, Harper’s numbers for the 2015 season now border on absurd. He’s hitting .338 and leading the National League with 14 home runs. He also entered Monday leading the majors in on-base percentage (.476), slugging percentage (.729), OPS (1.206) and, whether you ask FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference.com, wins above replacement.

And it all doesn’t feel too good to be true.

There was no question coming into 2015 that Harper had the talent to be an elite player. He had entered the league as one of the most hyped prospects in baseball history, and he authored a perfectly respectable .272/.351/.465 batting line with 55 home runs in his first three seasons.

Seemingly all Harper had to do to realize his full potential in 2015 was stay healthy, and he’s done that and more. His dominance stems from an overhauled approach and, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted, a simplified swing that allows for better pitch recognition and more effortless power.

It’s a stretch to say Harper’s career has been resurrected, but that’s the way it feels after injuries cost him so much playing time and production in 2013 and 2014. Thanks to his epic turnaround, everyone is once again free to be super-duper excited about his future.

And that’s where the Yankees come in. For as Harper’s future figures to be bright no matter what, you don’t need to be a Yankee executive to see just how bright it could be in New York.

You’re probably already thinking what I’m thinking, so let’s just be out with it: Put Harper in Yankee Stadium, and he’d become a monster even Guillermo Del Toro wouldn’t want to mess with.

Harper is a left-handed slugger, after all. And with its cartoonishly short right-field porch, no stadium is more infamous for catering to those than Yankee Stadium. That reputation is well earned, as FanGraphs’ park factors highlight it as the best place for lefty home-run hitters outside of Coors Field.

What’s more, Harper is just the kind of hitter who could regularly exploit such an advantage. He was already a good pull hitter before. Now he’s an elite pull hitter.

As these figures from FanGraphs show, Harper is pulling the ball (Pull%) more often, and doing so with more fly balls (FB%) and more hard contact (Hard%) than ever before, resulting in a career-best batting average and power production (ISO):

That Harper is doing this at all is impressive enough on its own. That he’s translating it into results at a home stadium that doesn’t cater to left-handed power hitters makes it even more impressive.

For perspective on that, Baseball-Reference.com says Harper would be hitting .353 with a 1.256 OPS and 15 home runs in a neutral environment. Knowing that, you can only imagine what he could be doing at a much-kinder-than-neutral environment like Yankee Stadium.

If what happens between the lines is all you care about, you should already be sold on what Harper could do as a Yankee. But since we’re talking about the Yankees and a superstar player, it’s hard to ignore that there might be no player in the majors more perfectly cut out to be a Yankee.

It’s not just that he apparently wants to be a great Yankee, though that is part of it. Harper idolizes Yankees legend Mickey Mantle. He’s openly rooted for the Yankees on Twitter. And according to a guy who wrote the actual book on Harper, it’s “been a goal” of his to end up in pinstripes.

Even more important than the apparent desire, however, is how Harper has just the right kind of attitude to thrive in pinstripes.

Harper has the kind of confidence that borders on arrogance, and that’s rubbed plenty of people the wrong way. But it really suits him now that he’s establishing himself as the lethal force he was always projected to be. If he were to take this act to New York, he could be the Yankees’ answer to New York Mets ace Matt Harvey and their most Reggie Jackson-like player since, well, Reggie Jackson.

In light of the drop-offs in their attendance and local TV ratings since 2010, the Yankees could use a player like that right now. Surely, they’re going to need one even more in the near future once stars like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia begin to slip away.

And while the Yankees do have two really good-looking prospects in Luis Severino and Aaron Judge, they’re obviously not the sure things Harper has become. At the least, trying to cultivate them into superstars shouldn’t preclude the Yankees from trying to go really big with Harper as soon as they can.

To that end, the Yankees can set their sights on the winter of 2018-2019.

Harper’s free agency isn’t imminent. It won’t come until after his age-25 season in 2018, putting it three-and-a-half years away.

And yes, there is the possibility Harper won’t make it to free agency.

There hasn’t been much buzz about the Nationals signing him to a long-term contract extension, but Harper’s ongoing rise to superstardom could light a fire under the Nationals front office. And if the club’s dispute with the Baltimore Orioles over television earnings is indeed resolved in the near future, it could soon find itself with some extra funds for the task.

Even then, however, locking up Harper could be tough.

The reality that Harper and the Nationals haven’t always been on the best of terms could come back to bite Washington at the negotiating table. There’s also the reality that Scott Boras doesn’t seem interested in letting Harper make like Mike Trout and settle for a team-friendly deal.

“I have the pleasure and privilege of watching Mike Trout play every night,” said the super-agent last March, via the Washington Post‘s Adam Kilgore. “I think he’s a very special cup of tea, for which he is deserving of a completely different brew. While few, I definitely consider Bryce Harper as part of the next generation of elite brand of teas. Certainly as a studied connoisseur, I may hold a differing opinion as to the availability, demand and value of tea futures.”

It sounds like Boras would prefer a deal more like what he had in mind for Harper back in 2013. That was a 12-year contract, which was unheard of at the time.

But not anymore, as the Miami Marlins created a precedent for one of those when they inked Giancarlo Stanton to a 13-year, $325 million contract in November. If Boras were to use that as a model for Harper, the rate at which his star is rising could make Stanton’s figures a mere starting point.

If that were to be too much for the Nationals, they’d have two options: Find a taker for Harper in a trade, or hold on to him until free agency. Since they’re presumably still going to be a major power in the NL East over the next three seasons, however, holding on to Harper would be their only real option.

If free agency after 2018 is what it comes to for Harper, the Yankees will have every reason to be first in line.

There are obviously all the reasons Harper would look good in Yankees pinstripes, and then there’s the financial side of the equation. Even if the bidding for Harper’s services were to be pushed into double-digit years and upward of $30 million per year, the Yankees could make it work.

They’re never short on funds, and by then they should have more than enough room for Harper on their payroll. After 2018, they’ll be free of A-Rod, Teixeira, Sabathia, Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, Andrew Miller and perhaps Brian McCann. Hence why their commitments for 2019 stand at only $45 million, per Baseball Prospectus.

So, never mind why the Yankees should have Harper at the top of their wish list. The real question is why not? He’s a perfect player for them, and he could become available at the perfect time.

For now, the Yankees must bide their time. Rather than pry him away on the spot or steal him away on the night, all the Yankees can do in Harper’s presence over the next two days is imagine and, indeed, yearn for the possibilities.

That, and enjoy the show.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Bryce Harper Hits 6th Home Run in 3 Games with Walk-off vs. Braves

The Atlanta Braves may want to stop pitching to Bryce Harper.     

The Washington Nationals outfielder won Saturday’s game with a walk-off home run. Nationals on MASN described the play that ended the 8-6 Washington victory:

Here is a look at the dramatic moment, per Major League Baseball:

While a walk-off home run is impressive enough as it is, the fact that Harper has drilled six home runs in a three-game span made it all the better for Nationals fans. ESPN Stats & Info pointed out the historical impact of Harper’s streak before he even hit the final long ball Sunday:

Seth Davis of Sports Illustrated was certainly impressed:

Harper now has 11 home runs on the season in 106 plate appearances. His career-high homer total in a single season is 22 from the 2012 MLB campaign (in his first season at the major league level).

Considering it is only early May and he is already halfway there, that career high is in serious jeopardy if he stays healthy in 2015. The Nationals have World Series aspirations, and the fact that their 22-year-old slugger appears to be hitting his prime only adds to their chances.

Harper may not seem that young because it is his fourth season in Washington and he already made the All-Star team earlier in his career, but he could be tapping into his full powers at the plate with more experience under his belt.

That is a problem for the rest of the National League East.

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5 Biggest Takeaways from Week 5’s MLB Action

Each week of baseball’s regular season brings any number of fascinating news, noteworthy developments and/or curious behavior.

The week that is about to conclude, Week 5, has been no different—and there’s still part of the weekend left for something else to happen.

In the meantime, here are a handful of the biggest takeaways from the goings-on of the past seven days.

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Better-Than-Ever Bryce Harper at the Core of Nationals’ Offensive Surge

Had you bothered to Google “Washington Nationals offense” earlier this week, you would have come across two headlines that said it all. 

One by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post read: “A closer look at the Nationals‘ slumping offense.” The other, by Bill Ladson of MLB.com, read: “Nationals’ offense still searching for spark.”

Well, here’s the latest on this front: The Nationals offense has found a spark and is no longer slumping.

The Nationals won their third game in a row Thursday night against the New York Mets, and it was their offense that once again did the heavy lifting. After dropping 26 runs in two games on the Atlanta Braves, the Nationals registered eight versus the Mets for an 8-2 win.

The key hit was a three-run ninth-inning double by Bryce Harper that turned a 5-2 lead into an 8-2 advantage and in turn sent the masses at Citi Field headed in the direction of the exits. It was his second double of the night and his fourth in the last three games. He’s also walked in all three games.

So for him, pretty much business as usual.

But we’ll have more on that later. Right now, there’s more credit to dish out.

The recently activated Denard Span has also been in the middle of the action in the last three contests, collecting seven hits and a walk with seven runs and four RBI. Catchers Jose Lobaton and Wilson Ramos have combined for seven hits, five runs and six RBI. In the two high-scoring games in Atlanta, former Brave Dan Uggla pitched in four hits and seven RBI, three of which came on a game-winner Tuesday night.

This is what it looks like when an offense comes alive. And small sample size be damned, the shift in the numbers is staggering. A couple of days ago, the Nats were hitting .215 as a team and scoring 3.5 runs per game. In the last three, they’ve hit .350 and scored a total of 34 runs. 

An explanation, you say? Harper had a good one for what’s gone on after Wednesday’s game.

“It was a matter of time,” the 22-year-old right fielder told Jon Cooper of MLB.com. “We have a lot of confidence in everybody on this club, and we’re going to have some fun.”

Harper’s right. It always was a matter of time before the Nats offense came alive. According to FanGraphs, they entered the year projected to score more runs than any National League team except the Colorado Rockies.

Injuries to Span, Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon made it tough for the offense to live up to that projection out of the gate. But now Span is back and raking and, after a very slow start, Werth has shown signs of life with three hits and a walk in the last two games. As a result, Washington’s lineup is looking and functioning like a much deeper unit.

And now it won’t be long before Rendon is back, too.

As Ladson reported, the All-Star third baseman’s recovery from an MCL sprain in his left knee saw him go through a full workout Thursday. Barring any setbacks, he’s a few rehab games away from rejoining the Nationals.

Once he does, the Nats will be regaining a guy who OPS’d .824 with 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 2014. Factor in the studly defense he played, and he was far and away Washington’s best player.

He might have trouble keeping that honor this year, though. Harper has a head start on Rendon, and the impact he’s made in the last three games is just a small part of what’s been a game-changing season.

Technically, Harper didn’t just finish off the best April of his career. It’s hard to top what he did in 2013, when he hit .344 with a 1.150 OPS and nine home runs. No matter who you are, that’s an epic April.

But while not quite “epic,” Harper’s 2015 was at least “stupendous.” Here’s Andrew Simon of MLB.com with the final numbers:

Those numbers look plenty good on their own, and they translate into an even better number. As of this writing, FanGraphs has Harper among the NL’s top hitters in adjusted offense with a 155 wRC+.

So, contrary to reports of him being overrated, you can consider this your annual reminder that Harper is an extremely talented young hitter when he’s healthy. That was the case in his Rookie of the Year season in 2012, early on in 2013 and late in 2014. When he’s physically able to hit, he hits.

And yet, there’s more to Harper’s recent batch of hot hitting than just good health. He’s the same hitter in many respects, but he’s also a much different player in others.

One storyline that’s gotten its share of play is all the walks Harper has been drawing. His 22 walks lead baseball and translate into a 22.0 BB% in 100 plate appearances. Even if you take away his five international walks, you still get an impressive 17.0 BB%.

The image of increased discipline that creates is no mirage. Harper has indeed made a change in his approach. And in his case, it’s one that’s overdue.

If you use Zone% to look up which hitters have seen the smallest percentage of pitches in the strike zone since Harper’s rookie season in 2012, here’s what you’ll see:

  1. Pablo Sandoval: 34.7%
  2. Josh Hamilton: 37.2%
  3. Bryce Harper: 38.3%

Translated: Harper has seen fewer good pitches to hit than all but two other hitters. Pitchers haven’t been making it easy on him.

What we’re seeing in 2015 is Harper finally responding to this. He used to oblige pitchers by chasing outside the zone with a high O-Swing%. But now, he’s doing this:

Pitchers are avoiding the strike zone at about their usual rate against Harper, but he’s fishing at a significantly lower percentage. When that happens, so do walks.

That’s definitely one way to take what pitchers are giving you, but it’s not the only approach. A hitter can take what he’s given when he swings the bat, too, and that’s something else Harper has been doing.

As they should be, pitchers have been frightened of going inside against Harper, lest they run afoul of his raw power. They’ve preferred to stay away from him instead, consistently pounding him on and beyond the outer third of the strike zone.

According to Baseball Savant, they’re doing that more than ever this year. One thing Harper is making clear, however, is that this game plan is quickly becoming obsolete:

It used to be reasonably safe to pound Harper away. But now? Considerably less so. Really, it’s not safe at all anymore.

We knew coming into 2015 that Harper had loads of natural ability. But from what we’ve seen, it sure looks like he’s developed some legit smarts to go with all his talent.

Looking at the numbers is one way we can tell. The other is simply taking his word for it.

In a recent interview with Tom Schad of The Washington Times, Harper said he’s no longer “trying to muscle up and hit a ball 900 feet.” Instead, he has a new game plan when he walks to the plate:

I’m trying to be quick, not as strong, do what I can to connect to the baseball, see my pitches, draw my walks if I need to. If they’re not giving in, keep throwing me offspeed or off the plate or anything like that, don’t chase. If you strike out on a good pitch, it happens. But draw your walks, try to get good pitches, and don’t miss ’em.

This would be the long-form way of saying, “I’m just being a hell of a lot smarter.” And based on just about every number out there, it’s putting Harper on track to have his best season yet.

Up until a couple of days ago, his efforts were counting for naught in an offense that just couldn’t get going. But now, it looks like they’re going to start counting for a lot more than naught in an offense that’s getting more dangerous by the day.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Red Sox Outfielder Mookie Betts Steals HR from Bryce Harper with Leaping Grab

The Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox are underway on this lovely spring Monday at Fenway Park, and the game has effectively turned into the Mookie Betts Show.

The Red Sox outfielder notched his first SportsCenter moment of the game after snagging a high Bryce Harper shot destined to drop in into Boston’s bullpen. Betts leaped, snatched Harper’s would-be homer and held on to the ball as he hit the padded wall.

It was a huge catch by the outfielder, and Betts continues to ring up the magic at Boston’s home opener. He stole two bases on one play thanks to a botched tag at second.

Betts also blasted a three-run homer in the second.

The Red Sox lead Washington 8-5 in the bottom of the fifth.

Mookie Betts: tell your friends about him

 

Dan is on Twitter. Mookie gonna mook.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Complete Washington Nationals 2015 Season Preview

This winter, the Washington Nationals set themselves up to mow down any team that stands in the way of a World Series title, but now it’s time for the Nats to put their $156 million where their mouth is. 

That number is Washington’s total payroll obligation in 2015, according to Baseball Prospectus.

The Nationals shattered their previous franchise spending record in order to win right now. And it’s hard to see them doing anything other than dominating with the roster general manager Mike Rizzo and company have assembled. 

The list of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez reads more like an All-Star team than a single club’s rotation. The offense that supports that squad features two reigning Silver Sluggers in Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond and a perennial member of the all-potential team in Bryce Harper

Washington will be called a lot of things if its grand experiment doesn’t materialize in a World Series trophy. Failure, disaster and underachiever are some of the nicer insults the Nationals would face in that situation. 

But the way this team is built, the odds of making a run at the championship aren’t exactly stacked against it. 

What follows is your guidebook to the 2015 Nationals as they kick off the most anticipated season in the franchise’s history. 

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Washington Nationals’ Position-by-Position Breakdown at 2015 Spring Training

The Washington Nationals checked off all of their boxes this offseason—fortifying the infield and amplifying the rotation—and now, with spring training upon us, we get our first look at the double take-inducing product the Nats will send out this summer.

Washington has eight everyday field players and five starting pitchers who don’t have to worry about fighting for playing time. All that’s left to decide on that front is the order of the lineup and the rotation, so you’ll have to look elsewhere for compelling position battles. 

This preview is a chance to get familiar with the Nationals who will make the biggest contribution to a potential World Series run, their likely backups and fringe players who may be needed in case of emergency this season.

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10 MLB Hitters Who Could Experience a Power Surge in 2015

Every season features countless players who enjoy an uptick in power and hit more home runs than they did the previous year.

The improvement can be extreme in some cases, such as when Jose Bautista went from 13 home runs in 2009 to 54 the following year. However, a majority of the time it’s more subtle, with players adding anywhere from five to 15 home runs compared to the previous year.

But which players are poised to hit for more power in 2015?

In order to determine candidates with the potential for a power spike next season, we looked at guys with room to improve in their home run totals and isolated slugging (ISO), using line drive, fly ball and home run rates in 2014 as predictors. We also considered guys who battled power-limiting injuries last season and are reportedly fully healthy entering spring training.

Here are 10 hitters who could experience a power surge in 2015.

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Washington Nationals’ 5 Most Important Players for 2015 Success

Contrary to popular belief, the Washington Nationals have not been crowned 2015 World Series champions just yet, and there are a number of players on the roster who must perform up to or beyond their potential for the team to reach its lofty goals. 

In 2014, the Nationals’ Achilles’ heel was a lack of offense when they needed it most.

Washington’s pitching staff mowed down opponents all season, earning the best ERA in baseball. And the addition of Max Scherzer without the subtraction of any starters from a year ago should equal continued dominance from the mound. 

With the disclaimer that Washington only played one postseason series, the team had the second-lowest batting average of the 10-team playoff field. That could be Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants‘ fault, but the Nats’ .253 regular-season average wasn’t all that impressive either. 

The sheer depth of Washington’s starting rotation—including Tanner Roark’s ability to step in if someone in the rotation suffers an injury—disqualifies any one starter from a spot on this list.

Instead, the criteria for inclusion are the consequences of a lackluster season from a particular player and the high stakes behind a transition into a new role.

If someone like closer Drew Storen or newly minted first baseman Ryan Zimmerman fall apart or sees extended time on the disabled list in 2015, the Nationals will face some scary on-the-fly decisions during the season.

That said, here are the five most important individual players on a 2015 Washington team that will be viewed as an abject failure without a deep postseason run.

 

 

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