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There’s a lot of speculation that San Francisco Giants‘ star catcher Buster Posey will eventually move out from behind the plate and become a full-time first baseman.

After Posey suffered a catastrophic injury in a brutal collision with Scott Cousins at the plate in 2011, his career seemed to be in jeopardy. No one, including Posey, had any idea how much he was going to be able to play last year after his lengthy rehab.

After missing 114 games in 2011 to repair his broken ankle and torn ligaments, Posey returned with a vengeance.

He started 111 games at catcher and 29 more at first base. He hit .336/.408/.549 with 24 home runs and 103 RBI out of the cleanup spot last season. He won his second World Series title, the National League MVP and Comeback Player of the Year awards and the batting title. 

His defense behind the plate was fantastic as well. According to the advanced catcher defensive metrics created by Matt Klaassen, Posey was worth nearly seven runs with his glove—fifth best in baseball.

His bat would be solid at any position, but having the combination of Posey’s defensive acumen and offensive talents behind the plate is arguably the biggest reason why the Giants have won two out of the last three World Series titles.

The year Posey was injured the Giants did an admirable job of staying afloat without him, but they ultimately didn’t come very close to getting back to the postseason. They finished eight games behind the first place Diamondbacks in the NL West. 

As long as Posey’s body continues to hold up and he still has the desire to wear the tools of ignorance, he should remain the Giants’ starting catcher. Hector Sanchez is an intriguing young catcher, but he isn’t ever going to be in the same stratosphere as Posey on offense or defense. Either is top catching prospect Andrew Susac.

In fact, no other catcher in all of baseball matched Posey’s overall value last year. His eight Wins Above Replacement (WAR) led all catchers and NL players last season.

A huge chunk of Posey’s value comes from his defensive ability at a premium, demanding position. Combine that with his ability to put up a .957 OPS at a spot where the average player had a .715 OPS last season and it’s hard to see the Giants ever moving him to first base unless his body forces them to.

Some have pointed to Joe Mauer as the example for where Posey’s defensive career is heading. At the age of 29 last season, Mauer started only 72 games at catcher for the Twins.

However, the Mauer comparison misses two key points. First, Mauer is 6’5″—which is tall for a catcher—whereas Posey is a more compact 6’1″. More importantly, Posey has suffered one major injury that he has recovered from. Mauer was continually getting banged up from the wear and tear of squatting.

Mauer missed 122 games in 2004 with a knee injury, 37 games in 2007 with a thigh strain, 22 games in 2009 due to a back strain and 57 games in 2011 with lower leg fatigue.

Posey had one major injury from a vicious collision. Now that he no longer even comes close to blocking the plate, another injury of that magnitude seems unlikely.

Jason Kendall is a better comparison for Posey than Mauer. Kendall, who is about the same height as Posey, missed the remainder of the 1999 season due to a fractured and broken ankle. Kendall returned from the injury the following year and was a durable catcher for the rest of his career, playing an average of 147 games per season in the decade after shattering his ankle.

Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area recently detailed Posey’s grueling rehabilitation. While Posey was better than ever last season, he will likely always have to manage his ankle according to Giants’ head trainer Dave Groeschner. He told Baggarly,

The truth is, this is something he’ll have to continue to work on throughout his career, and we’ll have to stay on top of it. He’ll wear orthotics for the rest of his career. Those cracks, snaps and pops he’ll have the rest of his life. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a couple more bouts of soreness.

But you do watch him now, and it’s amazing to think just a year ago we were hoping he could run bases.

Even though the effects of the injury will continue to linger for Posey, his work ethic and intelligence should allow him to continue to manage the pain. He may never catch 140 games for the Giants, but he should remain the primary catcher as long as his health permits.

Catchers that are this good on both sides of the ball come around once in a generation, while slugging first basemen are easier to find. A brutal collision nearly destroyed Posey’s ascending career, but he was able to fight through it and come out even better than before.

Posey’s career is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. As long as his legs continue to hold up and he maintains the torrid pace he’s set at the start of his career, he’ll eventually be inducted as a catcher.

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The San Francisco Giants should have made five moves this offseason in addition to re-signing free agents Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, and extending the contract of Santiago Casilla.

A big splash for a free agent like Josh Hamilton or Nick Swisher to improve left field would have made sense. However, once the Giants completed the task of bringing back their key free agents, the budget did not allow for another big ticket item.

Thus, the additional moves that the Giants should have made are not as exciting as signing a marquee free agent, but they still would have significantly improved the team.

Let’s take a deeper look at each of the moves the Giants should have made in order of their significance for the 2013 team.

(All contractual data in this article is taken from Cot’s Contracts and all statistics are from ESPN.)

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San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean has made sure his 2012 World Series championship team will stay together for the upcoming season and beyond.

During the offseason, Sabean re-signed second baseman Marco Scutaro, center fielder Angel Pagan and left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to new contracts. Scutaro and Affeldt inked three-year deals, while Pagan signed on for four years.

This ensures the Giants will have the opportunity to defend their title with the same team that won it last season. 

With the immediate future addressed, Sabean now has to think about the Giants’ long-term future. Catcher Buster Posey will be a significant part of whatever success San Francisco in the years to come and the smart move is to sign the 25-year-old to a long-term contract. 

According to the San Francisco Chronicle‘s Henry Schulman, the Giants are beginning discussions with Posey’s agent on what’s termed a “blockbuster” deal. 

It’s not an urgent situation for the Giants yet. Posey has only played 308 games in his MLB career, with two full seasons among the four years he’s played in the major leagues. This year will be the first of his four years of arbitration eligibility. 

That gives the Giants some time, but the idea is that a long-term contract would buy out some of Posey’s arbitration years to save some money.

If Posey were to go through the arbitration process year-to-year, he would earn more due to an annual salary increase determined by performance and market value. However, if Posey got hurt or had a bad season, that could affect the salary he might get as well.

That’s why players want the long-term contract. It ensures them financial security against injury or poor performance. For someone who plays the most demanding position in baseball like Posey, a multi-year deal is even more important—even if it costs him a potentially huge free-agent payday. 

What sort of contract can the Giants and Posey expect to work out in the weeks and months—or years, if it comes to that—ahead?

Posey certainly brings an impressive résumé to the negotiating table. He’s won the NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards. He also earned his first NL batting title. Perhaps most importantly, he’s been a part of two World Series championship teams. 

In his four major league seasons, Posey has compiled a .314 average, .883 OPS, 67 doubles, 46 home runs and 191 RBI. 

MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz projects a $5.9 million salary for Posey in 2013. That seems low for a player of his caliber, but consider that Posey will only be playing his fifth major league season. Last year, he made $615,000. 

Perhaps the best comparison for the sort of contract Posey can expect is Ryan Howard.

After his first four MLB seasons, Howard also had NL Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in his trophy case. He hit 129 home runs with 353 RBI by that point. In his 2006 MVP season, he led MLB with 58 homers and 149 RBI.

In 2008, Howard’s first year of eligibility, he and the Phillies went to arbitration. Howard won the hearing, earning a $10 million salary (opposed to the $7 million figure Philadelphia submitted), the highest ever awarded to a player. (Howard’s previous salary was $900,000—a record for a player with less than two years of MLB service.)

Coming off a 2008 season during which he once again led the majors with 48 homers and 146 RBI, while finishing second in the NL MVP vote, Howard was looking at earning another huge salary through the arbitration process. (He was prepared to ask for $18 million in a hearing.)

To control their costs, the Phillies and Howard agreed to a three-year, $54 million contract that bought out the first baseman’s final three seasons of arbitration eligibility. The average annual salary of the deal matched the figure Howard was prepared to submit in his arbitration hearing with the Phillies. 

That gives the Giants a frame of reference to work from. Posey and Howard aren’t entirely comparable, of course, because of Howard’s prodigious power numbers. Yet Posey plays a far more important defensive position and helps lead a pitching staff that’s one of the best in baseball.

San Francisco also got an idea of just how valuable Posey is when he was sidelined for the 2011 season. He suffered a broken bone and two torn ligaments in his left ankle after a collision at home plate with the Marlins‘ Scott Cousins in late May. The Giants went on to win 86 games, finishing second in the NL West. 

Let’s start by saying this, even if it’s an obvious statement: Posey won’t get a nine or 10-year contract worth nine figures, as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Joey Votto received. Not yet, anyway. He simply doesn’t have the established careers of those three players yet, regardless of how impressive his first four seasons have been. 

Additionally, as 2011 demonstrated, Posey is a greater injury risk at catcher than at first base. That could lead the Giants to move him to a different position eventually. But it’s possible that will be addressed in a subsequent contract. 

If Posey does indeed earn a $6 million salary for 2013, it’s not difficult to imagine that he could get a $10 million to $12 million figure through the arbitration process in 2014.

Wendy Thurm of FanGraphs projects that Posey could earn approximately $51 million over the course of his four seasons of arbitration eligibility. Obviously, that depends on his performance and ability to stay healthy. Posey could get even more if puts up comparable—or better—numbers than he did in 2012. 

But given what Posey could earn in his four seasons of arbitration eligibility, something along the lines of a four-year, $48 million contract seems reasonable.

A $12 million annual salary wouldn’t put him among the 50 highest yearly paychecks in baseball, but Posey would still have another opportunity for a huge free-agent payday by the end of that contract, when he would be 30 years old. By then, Posey might be making the transition to first base, thus extending his career. 

One more thing the Giants might want to consider is buying out Posey’s first one or two years of free agency. That would significantly add to the overall value of the contract; Posey could very well earn a salary over $20 million by then.

Under those circumstances, San Francisco and Posey could be looking at a five-year contract worth $70 million to $75 million. Is that an offer the Giants are prepared to make at this point?

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After keeping the core of their championship team together by re-signing free agents Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, the latest rumors pertaining to the San Francisco Giants mostly surround the periphery of the roster.

For example, the Giants were rumored to be interested in backup outfielder Endy Chavez before he agreed to a minor league deal elsewhere on Monday.

Before missing out on Chavez, the Giants were busy building the depth of their roster by signing free agent outfielder Andres Torres to a major league deal, claiming reliever Sandy Rosario off of waivers and agreeing to minor league contracts with catcher Guillermo Quiroz, infielder Wilson Valdez and reliever Chad Gaudin.

With the big transactions of the winter already taken care of, the Giants will spend the rest of the offseason continuing to build up the bench and bullpen.

The biggest questions that remain are whether the club will re-sign Brian Wilson, trade Tim Lincecum and extend the contracts of Buster Posey and Sergio Romo.

The latest news on Wilson courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman is that the team was not close to a deal with the bearded closer. Wilson was reportedly unhappy with the team’s decision to not tender him a contract last month.

Had the Giants tendered Wilson, he likely would have made close to the $8.5 million salary that he earned last season when he made just two appearances before going under the knife for a second Tommy John procedure on his elbow.

Given Wilson’s unhappiness with the club’s decision to non-tender him, I would sell on the rumors of him coming back to the Giants. The Giants want him back but are near their budget ceiling at this point in the winter. Most free agents go to the highest bidder, and it’s hard to envision the Giants outbidding other suitors for Wilson—particularly given his public frustration with the organization. 

Nick Carardo of the Boston Globe wrote that Lincecum was available in a trade earlier this winter, but general manager Brian Sabean put that speculation to rest almost as soon as it began.

While it’s possible that Sabean would still entertain trade offers for Lincecum even after telling the media he had no intention of making a deal, he likely would have been more active in finding a replacement this winter.

With free agents Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster, Brandon McCarthy and Edwin Jackson off the market, the Giants would have a hard time replacing Lincecum if they dealt him, unless they got a big-league ready arm in return for him. 

With Sabean shooting down rumors of a Lincecum deal earlier this winter and the Giants not active in the free agent pitching market, I would bet the farm on him being in the Giants rotation in 2013. Even with Lincecum in the fold, the Giants remain short on starting pitching depth outside of the five returning starters in the big league rotation. 

This late in the winter, not many teams have the money available to acquire a pitcher making $22 million—especially one coming off the worst season of his career. The better question isn’t whether or not Lincecum will be in the Giants rotation, but which version of Lincecum will show up in 2013?

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants were open to the idea of a contract extension for Buster Posey. Posey is in a similar situation to the one Lincecum was in after the 2009 season.

Lincecum was eligible for salary arbitration for the first time, and normally the advantage is with the team in arbitration hearings. However, because Lincecum had two Cy Young awards on his resume, he had the leverage. The Giants ultimately agreed to buy out two years of arbitration with a $23 million contract extension.

Posey has a batting title, MVP award, Rookie of the Year award and two World Series titles on his resume. The Giants will control him through arbitration for the next four years regardless, but a contract extension to provide cost certainty and buy out some free agent years would make a lot of sense.

I would buy the rumors of a contract extension for Posey, and I would also expect the team to extend Sergio Romo—who is also eligible for salary arbitration. The three-year contract extension the Giants recently gave to Santiago Casilla would be a reasonable deal for Romo.

The Giants are done making big splashes this winter, which means Lincecum will almost certainly be in the rotation when spring training rolls around. The Giants might want Wilson back in the bullpen, but my guess is that he will stick to his word and move on.

The smart money is on multi-year contract extensions for Posey and Romo, the two most critical members of the team eligible for salary arbitration.

The theme of the offseason has been stability, and I would bet on that continuing with contract extensions for two integral members of the 2010 and 2012 championship teams.

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ESPN used to run a commercial featuring a young couple having cutesy time on the couch. As unsavory as that image was to a sports fan just wanting to watch game highlights, the visual turned absolutely repugnant once the camera zoomed out to reveal the guy was wearing an Ohio State sweatshirt, while the girl was sporting her Michigan threads.

Just thinking about it makes you uncomfortable, right?

Now imagine a Giants fan and a Dodgers fan embracing on the couch, making out and whispering sweet nothings in each other’s ear. I don’t know about you, but I just threw up a little in my mouth.

Well, that is because the two fanbases don’t get along. In fact, they downright hate each other. They hate each other’s teams, their team colors, their hometowns and their regional vernacular. They even hate the air the other side breathes (with good reason, at least for Giants fans—LA air is filthy).

And it doesn’t help that the players in opposite dugouts hate each other, too, carrying on a rivalry that extends back to the New York days for both franchises.

The list of reasons why the two sides hate each other is seemingly endless, but here we’ll just look at five of the reasons Giants fans hate Dodgers fans so much.

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It’s time we find ways to market Buster Posey to the masses. 

He’s won Rookie of the Year, the Silver Slugger Award, the Hank Aaron Award, and this year’s batting title, Comeback Player of the Year.

Also, he started an All-Star game, won two World Series, and is now the National League Most Valuable Player.  

Yes, he’s that good, and he’s only 25-years-old!

Still, outside of Northern California, Posey receives little publicity. 

He doesn’t play in a typical ESPN market (e.g. Boston or New York), so he’s largely ignored by the national sports media. 

Fortunately, name recognition can grow quickly with the right publicity, so here are the top-five ways to market Buster Posey to the rest of America.  

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Next Thursday, Major League Baseball will announce the winners of this year’s Most Valuable Player awards. 

Which, I suppose, means we only have a little more than a week to continue arguing about who should win the darn things. We better make the most of it.

There’s really not much of a debate over who should win the MVP on the National League side of the fence, but the argument over who should win the American League MVP is more like a war. I would bet good money that the AL MVP situation has ended at least one marriage and led two or three fathers to disown their sons.

Everyone has their opinions on who should win each MVP award and why, but who will win the awards is another matter entirely. That’s not a question of who really deserves to win; it’s a question of which way the voters will lean.

With that in mind, let’s take one last look at who should win MVPs this year and who will win MVPs this year.

Note: Traditional stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Sabermetric stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Tim Lincecum went through the worst season of his career in 2012, losing 15 games with a 5.18 ERA.

And, once he struggled and got the loss in a start in Game 4 of the NLCS, that was it for him starting. But luckily, the former ace and two-time Cy Young winner has found some success…out of the bullpen.

Out of the bullpen, Lincecum has allowed one run in 10 and two-thirds innings. He came in during Game 1 of the World Series with two on and two out in the sixth inning, and he struck out Jhonny Peralta. He struck out five of the seven batters he faced, twirling two and one-thirds perfect innings.

Lincecum was perfect, as he commanded his change-up and used his slider more freely, not worrying about the potential risk of getting tired from overuse of the pitch later in the game. He is now throwing everything he has at each batter, knowing that it’s unlikely he’ll face the same hitter twice in the same game.

The two-time Cy Young winner is 1-0 with an 0.84 ERA in the postseason (out of the bullpen,) and not including the time he came in during the third inning of a 2008 game because of rain, Lincecum has a career ERA of 0.82 in the bullpen.

Maybe he doesn’t like it there as much, but the reality is that he gets to pitch in more games. The Giants crowd roars when Lincecum and his long hair trot from the dugout to the bullpen mound. It’s happened four times at AT&T Park and twice on the road.

Lincecum’s ability to throw a lot of pitches on short rest will really help, and he can be counted on to chew up innings. If he continues to succeed, he could be a late-inning reliever or an inning-eater, providing decent relief for a whole season.

You may ask about who would replace him in the rotation, and I’ve got an answer. San Francisco has some money to spend, and it could use it on Kyle Lohse, James Shields or even Zack Greinke. The only challenge then would be assembling the rotation.

Ryan Vogelsong has a 1.42 postseason ERA, and he compiled a 3.37 ERA and 14-9 record in 2012 despite a rare rough patch. Madison Bumgarner went 16-11 with the same ERA, Zito went 15-8, and Cain compiled a 2.80 ERA and a 16-5 record.

So it’s safe to say the rotation wouldn’t have problems. Lincecum has had some struggles in the rotation, although he is perfectly capable of going deep into a game there. Bad luck played a part in Lincecum’s 5.18 ERA, and he also had some trouble pitching to Buster Posey. In fact, backup catcher Hector Sanchez became Lincecum’s battery mate, with Posey moving to first base. 

Some may argue that the lack of chemistry between Posey and Lincecum would be a cause for concern, since three of the other four starters always pitch to Posey (and Zito pitches to him sometimes). But out of the bullpen, Lincecum has pitched 6.1 scoreless innings to Posey, his 2010 postseason battery mate.

He has done well pitching to Sanchez, too. Sanchez caught 4.1 innings of one-run ball from Lincecum in Game 4 of the NLDS, which was a relief appearance. So, there is no way that Lincecum will shy away from a catcher and force Posey to leave a game because he is unwilling to pitch to him (Posey).

Lincecum won’t shy away from anything, and he has done a great job accepting his role, avoiding sulking and finding some success. You could argue that Lincecum’s bullpen relief is the reason that the Giants are still playing, since he got the win in Game 4 of the NLDS, another elimination game, while saving his fellow relievers for Game 5.

That could happen again in the regular season, and there’s a good chance of it. But first, manager Bruce Bochy and general manager Brian Sabean have to put Lincecum in the bullpen.

And no, that’s not a punishment. I’ve been preaching Lincecum’s second -and past success for what seems like forever, and I’m still a huge fan of him. I was shocked when he was excluded from the NLDS rotation, only to watch him go 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in the NLDS.

Then, I realized having Lincecum in the tool shed for almost 162 games every year would be better than having him start 30-35 games. He can send the crowd into a frenzy just by jogging to the bullpen, which is very valuable. He can be one of those pitchers who realize throwing their best stuff at a team for a short period of time can really help, without the risk of facing the hitter again.

I don’t expect this to happen, and I think he can build on his World Series and postseason success to regain his form in the rotation. His confidence will be there, and you can expect Lincecum to go through some rigorous offseason workouts to ensure success in 2013. But there is a good argument that Lincecum can be replaced in the rotation and be used as a key reliever, and that he can fill in in the case of an injury.

Because now, he has experience pitching in the rotation and the bullpen. He’s got confidence in his stuff out of the bullpen, and he can definitely succeed in either role.

But if Lincecum is in the bullpen, and the Giants find a decent replacement, the rotation will retain its elite status and the bullpen will fall into the category of elite. 

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The San Francisco Giants walk into the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati today facing an 0-2 deficit in their best-of-five series with the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker, who spent 14 years with the Giants, acknowledges that a 2-0 lead isn’t everything, saying:

“[Leading] 2-0 doesn’t mean anything unless you’re up 3-0, which is what counts in this series.” 

Historially, the odds of winning the series are stacked against the Giants. Only four of 42 teams have ever overcome an 0-2 deficit to win a five-game series. That is a success rate of only 9.5 percent. Add to this the fact that the remainder of the series is on the road, and suddenly hope may become bleak.

While the chances of winning the series may be steep, the Giants can start by saving face with a win tonight behind the arm of Ryan Vogelsong.

Ryan comes into the game tonight with a 3.87 ERA this season. Even though his ERA has been a paltry 5.11 since the All-Star break, he still managed half of his 14 wins during that stretch. 

Vogelsong has been noted by MLB writer Chris Haft for running “deep counts out of his abhorrence for throwing pitches that a hitter might find remotely enticing.” This may prove to be a useful quality against a team that has racked up 14 total runs in two games.

Beyond pitching, the Giants will need run support.

Look for timely contributions from leadoff man Angel Pagan and near the bottom of the order from first baseman Brandon Belt. Both have had success against Reds pitcher Homer Bailey.

While only a small sample size, Pagan has a .429 batting average against Bailey, striking for three hits in seven at-bats. Belt has been successful to the tune of a .667 average, hitting twice in three tries.

If the Giants can get contributions from their big bats—Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval—in addition to timely hits from Pagan and Belt, they could give Vogelsong the help he needs to keep the series alive.

With Barry Zito on deck to pitch Game 4, if needed, expect the Giants to step up their production at the plate tonight.

If you follow @MLBJesus, you may be looking forward to a magical performance tonight.

The Sword of Vogelsong shall deliver thy Franciscans to Victory on Tuesday.

— MLB Jesus (@MLBJesus) October 8, 2012

——UPDATE——

San Francisco wins 2-1 in the 10th inning.

While Brandon Belt did nothing offensively to assist in the victory, Angel Pagan contributed the RBI that gave the Giants one run in the third inning. Without that, the game doesn’t go to extra innings and San Francisco goes home for the offseason.

Ryan Vogelsong had a solid outing, pitching 5 innings and allowing only one run for a 1.80 ERA.

Buster Posey was big in the 10th, getting on base with a hit and scoring the winning run on a ground ball error by Reds third baseman Scott Rolen.

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Now that Major League Baseball’s regular season has come to a close, the time has come to hand out awards for the best—and worst—performances of the year.

Baseball is inherently ambiguous which naturally leads to discussion and argument. No matter what you are trying to prove in the realm of baseball, it is possible to back it up with an obscure statistic or a quote from an old player’s memoir.

The uncertainty of the sport is what keeps many people invested.

With that in mind, the following are my picks for various awards and honors.

Feel free to respond in the comment section with your own thoughts and opinions.

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